capfan33 wrote:If I remember correctly, Elgee came up with a better way to predict ratings for seasons before 1974 and basketball reference hasn't been updated to reflect this. Here are the updated numbers for the Celtics. (Not sure if this is allowed but I do feel like it's very interesting data that a lot of people would find relevant)
ORTG DRTG rORTG rDRTG
56-57 91.6 86.9 2.2 -2.5
57-58 90.1 85.6 1.4 -3.1
58-59 92.8 87.6 1.7 -3.5
59-60 92.8 86.6 2.5 -3.7
60-61 87.7 83.5 -1.4 -5.5
61-62 92 85 0.9 -6.1
62-63 94 88.3 -0.6 -6.3
63-64 90.1 83.8 -2.4 -8.7
64-65 91.5 84.7 -0.4 -7.2
65-66 92.2 88.2 -0.5 -4.5
66-67 96.9 90.4 2.3 -4.3
67-68 95.4 92 0.5 -2.8
68-69 93.4 88.7 0.1 -4.6
Essentially, the Celtics weren't as bad offensively, and weren't as good defensively as we previously thought. How that changes your perception of Russell and/or his supporting cast is up to you, but it is interesting.
This is indeed Taylor's new and improved version.
Folks in terms of what's allowed here, this is a grey area as far as I know, but here's what I'll say for now:
If you see this data because someone shares it, and you learn stuff from it, and you can afford to throw someone a bone on Patreon, why not do it?
On the basketball analysis:
While there may have been a net shift that makes the Celtics look less bad on offense and less good on defense, I don't see it as a clear general trend and I don't think people should "round up" or "round down" from bkref to estimate these numbers.
I think the most interesting thing here is that the Celtics as best ORtg goes down from 12 to 11 - where the year that switches over is Russell's rookie year where he missed half the season, and where the Celtics certainly seemed like the dominant defensive team in the playoffs.
(The best DRtg in '56-57 by this new update are the Rochester Royals' defense lead by Maurice Stokes.)
Also of note: Pettit's Hawks and Oscar's Royals both lose a couple crowns with this revision, and all 4 of those crowns are lost to the same franchise: The Syracuse Nationals, who then become the Philadelphia 76ers. In '58-59 & '59-60 they are led by Dolph Schayes, in '62-63 by Hal Greer, and in '68-69 as the 76ers by Bill Cunningham.
(This brings Pettit down to zero times led a team to the best ORtg in the game, and brings Oscar down to 4 years as his team's lead, and 5 years total including '70-71 in Milwaukee. West & Wilt, incidentally, end up gaining 2 years at the end of their run in LA, which brings West up to 4 total #1 ORtg teams and Wilt up to 3. Kareem also grows to 3 #1 ORtg years before Magic arrives, to go along with the 6 of Magic's 7 he's on Showtime for - giving him 9 total, which is actually not THAT far away from Russell's DRtg champ mark of 11 now...though done over much more time.)