RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #2 - 2012-13 LeBron James

[LA Bird]

RealGM Greatest Peaks List (2022)
1. 1990-91 Michael Jordan
2. ?

Spoiler:

Please vote for your 3 highest player peaks and at least one line of reasoning for each of them.

Vote example 1
1. 1991 Jordan: Explanation
2. 2013 LeBron: Explanation
3. 1967 Wilt: Explanation

In addition, you can also list other peak season candidates from those three players. This extra step is entirely optional

Vote example 2
1. 1991 Jordan: Explanation
2. (1990 Jordan)
3. 2013 LeBron: Explanation
4. (2012 LeBron)
5. (1992 Jordan)
6. (2009 LeBron)
7. 1967 Wilt: Explanation
8. (1964 Wilt)

You can visit the project thread for further information on why this makes a difference and how the votes will be counted at the end of the round. Based on last round, it looks like the peaks of Kareem and LeBron will be split across multiple seasons so if you are including either of them in your vote, please try to rank both of the seasons 09/13 for LeBron and 71/77 for Kareem.

Voting for this round will close on Friday June 24, 9am ET.

[70sFan]

My voting:

1. 1976/77 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. 1966/67 Wilt Chamberlain
3. 2011/12 LeBron James

Let's start with Kareem. In my honest opinion, this season was one of (if not THE) greatest carryjobs in NBA history. Jabbar anchored Lakers mediocre supporting cast to 53 wins, which was the best record in the league at that time. His boxscore numbers were strong, but not out of mind.

It got worse in the playoffs though, because Lakers lost their starting forward Kermit Washington and their best perimeter creator (Lucious Allen) played through injury. As a result, Kareem was forced to do literally everything on both ends of the floor to make Lakers competitive against quality competition. He did that: he averaged astonishing 35/18/4/4 on ridiculous 60.7 FG% and 64.6 TS% (+13.7 rTS%). This already amazing combination of GOAT volume and GOAT efficiency should tell you that he was incredible in that sample, but you have to add that he rebounded like the best rebounder in the league (21.6 TRB%), all while being forced to erase all the mistakes from his teammates on defensive end.

The playoff run lasted 12 games and I've been fortunate to get footage from 8 of them. Two of them were highly incomplete (from WCSF game 7 is only 20 minutes long, game 3 has only half of the game), but other games are farily complete. I made a shotchart from these games, along with shooting data:

Spoiler:

0-3 feet: 82.8% efficiency, 20% of shots taken (24/29)
3-10 feet: 62.0% efficiency, 54.5% of shots taken (49/79)
10+ feet: 48.6% efficiency, 25.5% of shots taken (18/37)

I know that the sample of size isn't huge (only 145 shots in total), but it's just nothing short of incredible. Kareem in that run was just absurd from all spots of the floor, he could make any shot he wanted. Even with bigger sample including different seasons, Kareem's efficiency and volume from in-between area (3-10) made his extremely unique scorer. You just couldn't do anything to stop him from scoring effectively from that range. He didn't take a lot of long range shots, but that wasn't his game - Lakers tried to create spacing for him to work in the paint (which usually didn't work, because Lakers didn't have many good shooters).

His skyhook efficiency was also absurd in sampled games. He made 35/56 attempts in sampled games, which given linear adjustment leads us to 62% on over 8 attempts per game.

Again, note that all these numbers were created against very strong defensive competition - he was guarded by the combination of Ray/Parish and swarming Warriors defense in 5 of these 7 games, while he had to deal with peak Bill Walton in another 3.

Scoring isn't the only thing that puts Kareem at the top for me. In the sampled games, I estimated that Kareem successfully contested 6.5 shots at the rim per game, which is extremely high number - only short of the very best rim protectors ever. His rotations also kept from scoring at the rim around 3.1 times per game. It doesn't include regular intimidation inside of course. He also made relatively low mistakes with his rotations or late contests. I don't have enough time to post clips right now, but if anyone is interested - I will post them later.

Despite massive offensive load from Kareem, Lakers still posted very solid -2.1 rDRtg in the playoffs and they missed their second best defender. All of that was due to Kareem's massive size inside, but also his smart positioning and willingness to step outside and help on perimeter.

Kareem vs Shaq

Thank you for your very detailed response, I will try to answer to all these points!

As for the wholistic data that we do have:
Ai. Regular Season BPM: +7.3 2000 Shaq > +5.2 1977 Kareem [though 1972 Kareem is higher, and 1971 and 973 are close].
Aii. Postseason BPM: +8.5 1977 Kareem > +7.0 2000 Shaq [1974 Kareem is also higher than peak Shaq, though 2000 and 2001 Shaq come next]
B. CORP: 29.4% 2000 Shaq > 25.8% 1977 Kareem.
If we're looking for more data, regular season total win shares has Shaq over Kareem (with equal WS/48), BR's regular season BPM has Kareem just edging out Shaq by a hair. In the postseason, Kareem has a better WS/48 (though a lower total WS due to the fewer games), and a better BR BPM. WOWY favors Shaq over Kareem by a fair bit.
That's about all the data I could find. Supposedly Goldstein PIPM data exists for late 70s Kareem, but I've been unable to find a publicly accessible version. I know Shaq and Kareem's ~3 year average postseason PIPM is similar.

Thanks for putting all these stats together. Yeah, it seems reasonably close, which isn't surprising considering that we're talking about GOAT-level peaks here.

It's clearly close, with Shaq likely having the better regular season and Kareem having the better postseason. To me, it's a question of how low you are on the regular season and on the smaller sample of playoff games. You (70sFan) were saying you were lower on incomplete seasons by LeBron compared to complete seasons by MJ; I think I'm similar for the more incomplete season by 77 Kareem compared to more complete season by 2000 Shaq, particularly since the postseason sample of 12 games is smaller. Could Kareem sustain such a lofty postseason performance over a deeper postseason run, or if he had dedicated more of his motor during the regular season? It's certainly possible, but those are some of my concerns for him vs Shaq. If I could find better data (e.g. a larger sample of 77 PIPM/RAPM) to suggest Kareem was 1977 closer in the regular season, that might assuage my concerns a bit and push him over the edge.

I think I don't have similar reservations for two reasons:

1. Kareem was well known for his postseason resiliency, so I wouldn't expect him to regress against the Sixers in the finals. We've seen him having 3 complete finals runs (1971, 1974, 1980) that were on extremely high level anyway. I know it's not the perfect way to judge season (maybe I am too inconsistent with my approach as well?), but I think that Kareem couldn't have done anything better with what he had in 1977, while Shaq was in inarguably better situation and I have seen moments when he didn't play up to his potential (although he was amazing overall in the playoffs).

2. Given how well both played, I find it hard not to pick a player I consider simply better. It's not MJ vs LBJ situation to me, because I legitimatelly can't decide who was better between these two. Shaq in comparison has a lot of exploitable weaknesses compared to Kareem (FT shooting, lack of mobility, limited range, poor defensive fundamentals) and even though he was dominant in spite of them, I don't think he was more dominant than Kareem.

-Scoring: 27.2 inflation adjusted pts/75 at +9.7% relative True shooting for Kareem vs 30.3 pts/75 at +5.5% relative True shooting for Shaq. Kareem may have the edge in overall scoring (certainly in efficiency), though Shaq may be better in volume. Both of their scoring can translate to the playoffs.

I think even without adjusting for anything else, Kareem looks comfortably better to me, though raw volume difference does look significant. I want to touch a few points here:

1. Pace adjustments are very important in evaluations across eras, but we shouldn't stop at linear adjustments without taking into account the context behind these differences. Kareem's team played at much higher pace than Shaq, but we have to ask how much it actually helps Kareem's raw volume scoring numbers. Jabbar was a halfcourt player, who occasionally could score in transition. He's a post up center and to run your offense through him, you have to set your offense and start running plays. How much the increased number of transition possessions could help him? I'd say that Shaq played in an era that was the most suited to maximize low post scorers volume numbers - slow, very halfcourt-heavy offenses with few transition opportunities.

2. In postseason, Shaq averaged 30.6 pts/75 on +4.8 rTS% vs Kareem's 31.2 pts/75 on +13.7 rTS%. The difference in efficiency is staggering and it's not really related to small sample of size:

- Shaq's highest rTS% accomplished in the playoffs during his prime (1994-03) was +8.7 rTS%,
- Kareem surpassed that mark 6 times in 1970-83 period (1970, 1974, 1977, 1979, 1980, 1983).

I just think that Kareem could reach the level of efficiency (with similar volume) at levels that were beyond Shaq's reach. Efficiency also requires applying context, but in this case we're comparing two high volume post players who created the offense in similar way.

3. Shaq's scoring efficiency was heavily driven by putbacks and inside finishes. It could be seen both as advantage as disadvantage. On one hand, he's amazing at creating easy shots - better than Kareem. On the other, he's far more limited as a creator with the ball in his hands. Take a look at their post game numbers I tracked throughout the last year:

- 1971-79 Kareem (33 games): 21.8 ppg on 52.8 FG% and 57.1 TS%
- 2000-01 Shaq (38 games): 17.8 ppg on 49.3 FG% and 49.8 TS%

I think samples are decently representative for both. Again, it's up to you if you prefer Shaq's ability to generate easy points, or Kareem's ability to finish tough shots no matter what. I think what Kareem gives you brings a bit more value and is less teammates depended. We really haven't seen prime Shaq in a bad situation and I don't think he'd be able to carry his team to the same degree Kareem did. We also have seen Kareem in great situations (let's say in 1971 and 1980) and he showed ridiculous value, despite probably not being at his peak anymore.

-Defense: Kareem may have the defensive advantage, but I'm not sure Shaq's a significantly worse defender in the one-year sample. It's absolutely significant over the course of their full prime, but I have 2000 as Shaq's best defensive year, with him taking far fewer possessions off defensively than he would later. For Kareem, I have 77 has a good defensive year but certainly not his best, as he'd lost some of the motor he had when he was younger (at least for the regular season).

This is where we disagree more than in creation (which I touch later). I know that a lot of people are quite aware that 2000 is Shaq's defensive peak and I likely agree with you. The problem is that Shaq even at his absolute defensive peak wasn't close to elite defensive player.

I already posted Kareem's rim protection numbers I tracked. To make the sample of size bigger, here are all the numbers I tracked:

Rim protection

1971-79 Kareem: 6.4 successful stops at the rim per game, 2.5 weak effort plays at the rim per game
1999/00 Shaq (excluding 2000/01 games): 3.7 successful stops at the rim per game, 2.8 weak effort plays at the rim per game

With roughly the same number of questionable plays, Kareem defended almost twice as many shots as Shaq. You may think that Shaq was more intimidating inside, but that's not true. When I also incluce high quality rotations that prevented from rim shots vs lack of them, Shaq also looks notably worse:

1971-79 Kareem: 3.1 high quality rotations vs 2.2 missed rotations
1999/00 Shaq: 1.4 high quality rotations vs 1.8 missed rotations

If we compare these numbers to all time great rim protector like Hakeem, you'll see how these two compare:

1993-94 Hakeem (35 games): 7.7 successful stops at the rim per game, 1.9 weak effort plays at the rim per game
1993-94 Hakeem (35 games): 3.6 high quality rotations vs 1.3 missed rotations

I know that my stats are a little bit fuzzy, so I'll show my concerns based on a few examples from games I tracked:

Spoiler:

- let's start with something subtle - Shaq here cheated inside, leaving Smits open to help on Miller drive, but when Reggie actually decides to drive O'Neal was way too late with his help. Possessions like these don't pop out in mind if you don't track a lot of games, but Shaq did it consistently. He didn't guard his man on perimeter, because he wanted to help inside but he often was way too late anyway.

Spoiler:

- in this case, Shaq rotated well and was in perfect position to shut down the drive, but instead of waiting for the next move, he jumped forward for no reason, which made slasher open. Again, it could look like a random play, but Shaq's discipline in such situations was always very questionable and in next situations, I will show you what I mean by "poor fundamentals".

Spoiler:

- you can see here Shaq helping at the rim reasonably well, but watch the way he tried to contest the shot. Again, it may look subtle that he simply missed his contest due to Pacers player going for reverse, but it's really not the case. Shaq had a lot of moments like these, when he missed the ball with his hand not by inches, but by feets. His positioning was horrible in many of these situations and it often led to hard fouls we see on highlight reels. Shaq simply lacked fundamentals to position himself in right position and he lacked patinece and discipline to contest shots at the right moment. Here is another example from the same game:

Spoiler:

Again, these subtle things, along with his poor mobility and lack of motor made him considerably worse defender than Kareem. Jabbar wasn't at his absolute peak defensively in 1977, but he was still much more active. Although his fundamentals weren't on Bill Walton level (Kareem had a bad habit of positioning himself sideways to driving player at times, though it was more pronounced around 1979), he was levels above Shaq in terms of anticipation and ability to contest shots.

I know that these examples are not drastic, but they show Shaq at his absolute apex (2000 finals) doing very basic mistakes. I don't want to include his poor P&R coverages or lack of mobilty, as these things are well known here.

-Creation and other offensive skills: I think here's where we might disagree? At least as far as I can tell (though I'm not film expert on Kareem -- feel free to let me know if I'm wrong here!), I see Shaq's overall offensive creation as above Kareem's. 2000 Shaq has a higher box creation and passer rating than 1977 Kareem in the regular season, and although Kareem's box creation overcomes Shaq's in the playoffs, his passer rating stays behind. While Kareem is certainly underrated as far as gravity goes, Shaq is usually considered the gold standard for big man rim gravity, drawing the double team and kicking back out to three pointers. I see this as a major driver of Shaq's offensive value, and something he has over Kareem (at least in my eye). Perhaps Shaq's benefited from his era, gaining more value than Kareem with his rim gravity and kickout passes simply because he was passing to 3 point shooters?

Well, for once we have to remember that players and teams in the 2000s post considerably higher box creation numbers due to the nature of game. I don't like comparing creation numbers across 30 years, because someone like Shaq had much more opportunities to create something with improved spacing and slower game.

If you compare both BC and PR from team perspective in 1977 and 2000, you'll see that the difference is quite drastic - more so than the difference between Kareem and Shaq. The fact that Kareem is somehow close to Shaq actually proves me with the idea that he's a better passer and playmaker than Shaq.

About Shaq's gravity - this one is a massive game changer, but I wonder how much different it was compared to Kareem. I mean, this is how Kareem was guarded in 1977 playoffs:

Spoiler:

This are not highly selected screens - I picked them from one quarter of game 3 vs Warriors. Kareem absorbed ridiculous amount of defensive attention and he had a harder time beating it without the three point line.

I also like Shaq's compatibility with perimeter teammates. You mentioned his superior offensive rebounding, which allows him to work well off of teammates' misses. I also like Shaq's offball movement and his ability to fight for position while teammates work on the perimeter.

I agree here, I think these things are the biggest advantages for Shaq over Kareem.

Let me know what areas you disagree on! These peaks are all very close, so even though I've initially stated my preference for 2000 Shaq > 1977 Kareem, I'm definitely open to discussing more (chances are, we'll have at least 1 more round to discuss before either get voted in, given the number of people in favor of MJ/Lebron...)

Sure thing, by no means I want to sound like it's a closed debate. We're talking here about the greatest of the greatest after all

Now Wilt Chamberlain. This choice is more controversial to me, as I think both Jordan and James have very reasonable cases over him.

Wilt did something nobody ever did before - in huge help of Alex Hannum he anchored the greatest offense in NBA history (up to that point) as a post playmaker. A lot of people think it was a fluke and I may suggest second thought on that - it's true that it's quite unusual way to run your offense but it doesn't mean it can't be done. In different thread, I made a calculation for 1967/68 season that suggests it wasn't a fluke and Sixers were on their way to another dominant offensive season next year after Wilt's early scoring slump:

viewtopic.php?t=2159841

To understand how it was done, it's necessary to understand how Sixers offense worked. It was mostly built around triangle fundamentals, but Hannum introduced many Wilt-specific plays. He had a nose for finding cutters and he loved two-man game with Greer, focused mostly on hand-off actions and short P&Rs. Philly played a lot of isolation ball when Wilt didn't have the ball in his hand, but when he had they made anything to make someone open, with Jackson and Walker setting screens and guards moving around all night long.

When it didn't work, Wilt always could turn into post up scorer himself and he was quite deadly when he tried to score, as we all know. Other than that, based on footage I've seen it's fair to say that Wilt might be the best offensive rebounder ever - at least in terms of volume and ability to turn them into points.

I haven't finished tracking 1967 Wilt games, but I will try to do it as quickly as possible (assuming that he won't get in within next few days, which is very likely). When I will, I post similar numbers to the ones I did with Kareem.

Wilt wasn't the most active defender ever, but his sheer dominance at the rim is unmatched. I haven't finished my tracking, as noted above, but he contested absurd amount of shots. The part of that is era related - but the truth is that I have never seen anyone that was capable of doing things Wilt did regulary as a rim protector. His immense size and athleticism made him possibly the most intimidating inside shotblocker in NBA history. I think he also has a strong case for the best rebounder ever despite that, although I don't love his defensive rebounding style. He didn't box out his opponents and instead he relied on his instinct a lot.

Still, despite ridiculous combination of two way play and team success, I struggle to put him clearly ahead of MJ/LBJ because he had one huge weakness in his game which was FT shooting. This season was especially bad for him in that aspect, although in the end it didn't stop him from dominating the league and extremely tough matchups in the playoffs.

If anyone wants to analyze 1966/67 Sixers footage, I can provide all I have for you.

LBJ is my 3rd choice after MJ getting in at number one. I think any of 2009, 2012, 2013 and 2016 have a very reasonable case for that spot, I usually prefer this version due to his combination of athleticism (which was 2009 esque) and his off-ball game development.

[homecourtloss]

1. 2009 LeBron James. Nothing new here, but would like to point out that a 66 win, 8+ SRS team almost always wins titles (2016 Spurs, 2016 Warriors, 2009 Cavs the only exceptions). To get to this level with the supporting cast he had is remarkable. And then to exceed that level in the post season adds to it. Some of those BPM numbers from extraordinary two-way play and scoring+offense creation+turnover economy is incredible to back and look at. It’s the the most polished version of James, but the most impactful. 2012 James played a complete season though I don’t think his top level was as good as 2013 or what he did in the 2016 playoffs.
(2013 James)
(2016 James)

2. 1977 Kareem. This is peak offensive Kareem who was still impactful defensively. The efficacy of his scoring offense with such little variance from game to game probably makes it the most reliable scoring offense of any peak. If only that 1977 team had a semblance of a decent supporting cast, this season would be remembered differently,
(1974 Kareem)
(1972 Kareem)

3. 2000 Shaq. His best regular season and great PS run. Great effort on defense. One of his lower FTr during the regular season. Imagine if he had a higher one (though higher ones later related to hack a Shaq strategies) and had a decent FT shooting season.
(2001 Shaq)
(2002 Shaq)
(1998 Shaq)

[coastalmarker99]

1 1967 Wilt.

His domination of his peers from the start to the end of that season is unrivalled.

As he averaged 24 24 7.8 on 68% per cent shooting in the regular season.


Then in the playoffs.

Here are his stats


1967 first-round vs Royals

Game 1: 41 points, 23 rebounds, 5 assists, 63% FG

Game 2: 37 points, 27 rebounds, 11 assists, 67% FG

Game 3: 16 points, 30 rebounds, 19 assists,15 blocks 62% FG

Game 4: 18 points, 27 rebounds, 9 assists, 50% FG

Series Average: 28.0 ppg, 26.8 rpg, 11 apg, 61% FG


1967 ECF vs Celtics.

Game 1:

Wilt - 24 points, 32 rebounds, 12 assists, 12 blocks, 69% FG

Game 2:

Wilt - 15 points, 29 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 blocks, 45% FG

Game 3:

Wilt - 20 points, 41 rebounds, 9 assists, 5 blocks, 57% FG


Game 4

Wilt - 20 points, 22 rebounds, 10 assists, at least 4 blocks, 44% FG


Game 5:

Wilt - 29 points, 36 rebounds, 13 assists, 7 blocks, 63% FG

Series average

Wilt - 21.6 ppg, 32.0 rpg, 10.0 apg, 6+ bpg, 56% FG



1967 finals.

Game 1:

Wilt - 16 points, 33 rebounds, 10 assists, 9 blocks 75% FG


Game 2:

Wilt - 10 points, 38 rebounds (26 in the 1st half), 10 assists, 10 blocks, 40% FG


Game 3:

Wilt - 26 points, 26 rebounds, 5 assists, 52% FG


Game 4:

Wilt - 10 points, 27 rebounds, 8 assists, 15 blocks, 50% FG


Game 5:

Wilt - 20 points, 24 rebounds, 4 assists, 60% FG


Game 6:

Wilt - 24 points, 23 rebounds, 4 assists, 10 blocks 62% FG


2 2018 Lebron.

This is peak offensive Lebron who was still good defensively and nobody in NBA history has ever carried a bigger load than what Lebron had to endure that year in the playoffs.

In the First Round of the 2018 Playoffs vs the Pacers, LeBron James accounted for 35% of the Cavs total points, rebounds and assists.

In the 2018 Playoffs, LeBron James had:

8 of the 13 highest-scoring games

9 of the 25 highest assisting games

8 of the 26 highest rebounding games

Highest Percentage of a Team's Points, Rebounds, Assists, Steals, and Blocks in a Finals Run:

LeBron James (2018) - 32%

T2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1974) - 30%

Most 40-Point Games in a Single Postseason in NBA Playoff History

LeBron James (2018) - 8

Jerry West (1965) - 8

His 3 game stretch from game 6 of the ECF to game 1 of the finals might be the greatest three-game stretch in playoff history as he looked as if he had solved basketball.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

3 Kareem 1971.

Kareem was at his apex as a player during that season.

And his two-way domination on a team that would have won close to 70 games in the regular season had they not rested and then stomped throughout the playoffs can not be ignored.

[Max123]

1. 2016 Lebron James
Voted for 2013 James in the previous thread; UniBro's post changed my mind. Briefly, around GOAT level offense combined with really really strong defense. In hindsight, I might have as well gone with Lebron at 1; I do think Lebron and Jordan are in their own tier when it comes to my confidence in their peaks.
(all versions of James that could realistically be considered here)
2. 2000 Shaquille O'Neal
Around GOAT level offense combined with slightly less impressive defense than Lebron.
(2001 Shaq)
3. 1977 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
All time level offense combined with very strong defense.
(other versions of Kareem that have serious consideration)

HM:
1993 Hakeem, 1967 Wilt; I have too many questions to confidently put either of them here. Might also see arguments for Russell, Magic or Curry here due to their outlier one-way impact but for now I have them slightly below these two-way giants.

[Joao Saraiva]

I haven't been very active in realgm to justify voting cause I don't think I'll be able to participate trough the project.

I would like to state however that Hakeem should be getting some love. I got 93-94 Hakeem as the highest peak ever.

The ton of ground he covered along with superb rim protection makes him by far the best defender I've seen in the modern era. He was also a great man to man defender. I don't think I'm exagerating when I say he takes the best of both worlds between KG and Duncan, that's how absurd he was on that end.

On top of that his footwork was great, he had range (didn't shoot 3s but Cs didn't back then) and his passing was on point during that season, and that was a big step for his success since earlier in his career he struggled in that regard.

I'd like voters to consider him for this spot.

KAJ, LeBron and Wilt are also good options for sure.

[Gregoire]

1. Shaq 00

Positives:
- Biggest mismatch 1-on -1 (in the post), huge physical presence
- Very efficient scorer and good passer with less TO than Hakeem and Kareem
- Draw most doubles, create a lot of opportunities with it for teammates
- Great offensive rebounder
- Great intimidator as a defender in the lane and big body to protect the paint
- Very good man defender in the post
Negatives:
- Obviously FT% (awful percentage) and because of it clutch factor and issues, hack-a-shaq factor sometimes
- PnR defense and mobility in defense overall (even without health and laziness issues), can be exploded in some matchups, clear worst defender than all-time centers. Questionable about Lebron and MJ
- Questionable stamina , motor and durability
- Very predictable and have very small range, so very easy to double and triple, dependence of good passing
- Intangibles and mentality in some sense were issue

2. Lebron 13

Positives:
- Best playmaker , very intelligent, good floor spacing
- Best passer and most willing one
- Most versatile defender
- Best in transition offense ( maybe Jordan is close), best transition defender, great finishing at the rim
- Most “team” player of the superstars, became not ball-dominant
- Along with Jordan best stamina and durability
Negatives:
- His jumper and overall scoring tend to be worse under pressure
- Questionable mentality of alpha-dog
- Less dominant scorer than MJ and Shaq
- FT % for wing player is not so good
- Post play can be better

3. Kareem 77 or Hakeem 93, undesided right now, will decide later...

[SickMother]

01 LeBron 12-13: 31.6 PER | .640 TS% | 120 TS+ | 19.3 WS | .322 WS/48
01 LeBron 12-13 Playoffs?!?: 28.1 PER | .585 TS% | 5.2 WS | .260 WS/48
[08-09 was maybe peak physical LBJ & his best carry job, but went with 12-13 because the increased efficiency (obviously aided by better supporting cast) was such a large gap. Also feel like this was the sweet spot between physical/mental peaks for LBJ & he was also at his most determined after not winning it all the first Heatles season]

02 Kareem 70-71: 29.0 PER | .696 TS% | 121 TS+ | 22.3 WS | .326 WS/48
02 Kareem 70-71 Playoffs?!?: 25.3 PER | .548 TS% | 3.3 WS | .271 WS/48
[maybe thee most dominant regular season ever, couldn't quite maintain that pace in the playoffs but still posted the highest PER and WS in the postseason en route to a 12-2 playoff record & youngest FMVP ever at that point]

03 Wilt 66-67: 26.5 PER | .637 TS% | 129 TS+ | 21.9 WS | .285 WS/48
03 Wilt 66-67 Playoffs?!?: 25.3 PER | .546 TS% | 3.8 WS | .253 WS/48
[pretty much the same story as Kareem above, but just a notch below for me. Best RS of all time candidate, some playoff falloff but still the highest PER & WS in the postseason field & a pretty smooth 11-4 cruise on the way to finally winning it all.]

[colts18]

I made the case that 2000 Shaq was the GOAT peak.

I'm going to outline the case of Shaq 2000 for the GOAT peak. Warning this post has a lot of numbers and is a pretty long read. I'll focus on his performance without Kobe, Defense, the Lakers as a team, 4th quarter, clutch, and playoffs.

Without Kobe:
Kobe started the 2000 season injured. He missed all of November. During that time, the Lakers and Shaq didn’t miss a beat at all.

11-3 record
6.61 SRS (would still be good enough to be #1 in the league)

Shaq performed admirably
28.7 PPG, 13.4 Reb, 3 AST, 59.5 FG%

More impressively is how the Lakers performed when Shaq was on the court during that span that Kobe missed.
107 O rating (+6.8 from League average)
94.3 D rating (-7.0 from league average)
+12.7 Net Rating

The most amazing thing about the above numbers is that Shaq’s full season numbers were 106 O rating and 95 D rating (11 Net) so that means the Lakers with Shaq on the court while Kobe didn’t play, played better offense and defense than the Lakers played with Shaq on the court in the games Kobe played. Shaq really stepped it up in that span.

Here is Shaq’s supporting cast during those games:
36 year old Ron Harper, 7 PPG 39.9 FG%
25 year old Derek Fisher, 6 PPG, 34.6 FG%
32 year old Glen Rice, 15.9 PPG, 43 FG%
36 year old A.C. Green, 5 PPG 44.7 FG%
2000 Shaq

Bench,
Brian Shaw
Rick Fox
Robert Horry
Travis Knight
John Celestand

Despite all of that, Shaq performed just as well and somehow got an on court 107 Offensive rating (+6.8 from league average) with Shaq on court. To put that into perspective, the #2 offense this year (Heat) are +6.5. They also played -7.0 defense which is the exact same that the 2011 Bulls and Celtics played.

In that month without Kobe, while the team played awesome with Shaq on the court, they were horrific without Shaq in that month

On court: +12 per 100
Off court: -44 in 197 minutes, (-11.17 per 100)
+23.19 per 100 possession difference

So Shaq was propping up a mediocre at best cast in Kobe’s absence to playing like the best team in the league when Shaq was on the court.

Defense:
Shaq’s 2000 season was his best defensive performance ever. The Lakers finished #1 in Defensive Rating (-5.9 relative to league average according to B-R), 1st in FG% allowed, 3P% allowed. Shaq led the league in Defensive Win Shares. Shaq’s man defense was a huge part of that. According to Hoopsstats.com, the Lakers in 2000 allowed 14.0 PPG, 40.7 FG% to opposing center. They had the best PPG against Centers, FG% against centers, and finished with the 2nd fewest FTA/game allowed to Centers.

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/opponentstats/00/10/pts/1-1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Top TS% defense:
Lakers: .455 TS% (.453 in the games Shaq played)
Spurs: .486 TS%
Heat: .490 TS%
The League average center was .526 TS% so the Lakers were -7.1 TS% relative to League average and they beat the Robinson/Duncan Spurs by 3.1 TS% for 1st place. An impressive feat.

Here are some more facts from Hoopsstats.com. Here are the best opposing Center PPG and FG% defense since hoopsstats started collecting the stat (from 1998-2013)

Top opponent Center PPG defense from 98-13:
06 Heat: 12.8 PPG (Shaq)
04 Lakers: 12.9 PPG (Shaq)
06 Jazz: 12.9 PPG

Top opponent Center FG% defense from 98-13:
00 Lakers: 40.7 FG% (Shaq)
99 Spurs: 41.1 FG% (Duncan/Robinson)
99 Hawks: 41.9 FG% (Mutombo)
Shaq’s teams finished #1 in 00 and 05, #2 in 01, 02 and #3 in 98 and 06.

Here is a comparison between Shaq and Alonzo Mourning, the 2000 DPOY, for that season:
Teams On Court Defensive Rating:
Shaq 95.3 pts allowed per 100 possessions with Shaq on the court
Mourning: 97.7 points per 100 allowed

These are the stats of all Centers in the league that played 24 minutes in a game vs Shaq/Mourning in 2000. Numbers are Per 36:

vs. Shaq: 12.46 PPG, 42.5 FG%, .462 TS% 1.48 AST-1.68 TOV

vs. Mourning: 12.53 PPG, 45.4 FG%, .512 TS%, 1.23 AST-1.83 TOV

vs. league average: 13.97 PPG, 50.2 FG%, .547 TS%, 1.50 AST-2.02 TOV

*League average does not include Shaq

Dropoff: Shaq-League Avg: -1.21 PPG, -7.7 FG%, -8.5 TS%, -0.2 AST, -0.34 TOV


vs Shaq: 10% 20+ points, 25% 15+ points, 48% <10 points

vs. Mourning: 14% 20+ Points, 20% 15+ points, 44% <10 points

League average: 13.9% 20+ Points, 32.1% 15+ points, 38.2% <10 points

Here is what Shaq did vs. the top 5 non-Shaq scorers at Center that year:
vs. Shaq (parenthesis is their regular season average):

Mourning: 27 PPG, 44.2 FG%, .513 TS%(21.7 PPG, 55.1 FG%, .596 TS%)

DRob: 13.3PPG, 42.1 FG%, .462 TS% (17.8 PPG, 51.2 FG%, .568 TS%) (had 15 Points on 54.5 FG% in the game Shaq missed)

Ewing: 13 PPG, 32.4 FG%, .343 TS% (15 PPG, 46.6 FG%, .516 TS%)

Smits: 8 PPG, 47.1 FG%, .471 TS% (12.9 PPG, 48.4 FG%, .518 TS%), 10 PPG 46.6 FG% in finals vs. Shaq

Campbell: 7 PPG, 28.6 FG%, .308 TS% (12.7 PPG, 44.6 FG%, .500 TS%)

Average dropoff is -2.2 PPG, -10.3 FG%, -12.0 TS%. That is a significant dropoff.

Playoffs (regular season averages in parenthesis):
Divac: 11.2 PPG, 35.7 FG%, 423 TS% (12.3 PPG, 50.3 FG%, .552 TS%)
Longley: 5.2 PPG, 37.1 FG%, .330 TS% (6.3 PPG, 44.6 FG%, .512 TS%)
Sabonis: 8.3 PPG, 38.2 FG%, 22.2 3P%, .471 TS% (11.8 PPG, 50.5 FG%, 36.8 3P%, .568 TS%)
Smits: 10 PPG, 46.6 FG%, .495 TS% (12.9 PPG, 48.4 FG%, .518 TS%)
Average dropoff: 2.2 PPG, -9.3 FG%, -10.8 TS%

Shaq was elite on man defense again in the playoffs.

Here is a breakdown on the Lakers defense in the paint
With Shaq on court: 33.5 Points in the paint allowed per 48 minutes
Shaq off the court: 38.8 Points allowed per 48
5.3 points per 48 minute difference. Teams shot 148 more mid range shots with Shaq on the court than against any other player in the league.

Team performance:
The Lakers were an all-time team in the games Shaq played
Shaq played: 66-13 (.835), 9.27 SRS, +9.9 Efficiency Differential (would be 6th all-time)
Shaq missed: 1-2 (.333), -11.16 SRS

To get an idea of Shaq’s impact, I will give an anecdote. The Lakers and Shaq played a game vs. the Rockets at Houston. The Lakers won by 1 point. 2 days later the Lakers played the Rockets again this time at home and without Shaq. They lost by 16 points. So that’s a 24.1 Point turnaround when you adjust for HCA. Hakeem vs. Shaq shot 5-18 (.278), the next game without Shaq he shot 6-12 (.500)

Games Shaq and Kobe both played in:
54-10 (.844) (would be 2nd best win% in history)
9.71 SRS (4th best SRS in 3 pt era behind 92, 96, 97 Bulls)


Shaq on the court: +706 (#1 in the NBA) (+11.2 per 100 possessions)
Shaq off the court: -5 (-0.0 per 100 possessions)

4th Quarter:
For some reason there is a myth out there that Shaq was a liability in the 4th quarter. The data does not show that at all.

Top 5 in 4th Quarter points per 36 minutes in 2000:
1. Shaq 29.4 PPG, .584 TS%
2. Malone 27.9 PPG, .604 TS%
3. Carter 26.3 PPG, .573 TS%
4. Iverson 25.9 PPG, .504 TS%
5. Hill 25.4 PPG, 56.6 TS%
Kobe was 9th at 23 point per 36.

The Lakers had a 110 O rating when Shaq was on the court in the 4th quarter. Here are those same ratings, except for the playoffs (min. 2 playoff series):
1. Shaq 32.3 PPG, .637 TS%
2. Wells 29.6 PPG, .617 TS%
3. Mourning 23.7 PPG, .524 TS%
4. Miller 23.0 PPG, .654 TS% (his team had a 124.3 O rating in the 4th with him on the court)
5. Malone 22.6 PPG, .490 TS%

Kobe was 9th at 21.4 points per 36 with a .479 TS%. The Lakers had a 116 O rating with Shaq on the court in the 4th quarter in the 2000 postseason.

Here is how Shaq compares to 97 and 98 Jordan in the 4th quarter:

Regular season (per 36):
97 MJ 29.5 PPG, .594 TS%, 113.4 on court O rating
98 MJ 31.1 PPG, .572 TS%, 108.0 O rating
00 Shaq 29.4 PPG, .584 TS%, 110 O rating

Playoffs (per 36):
97 MJ 33.2 PPG, .569 TS%, 114.4 on court O rating
98 MJ 33.5 PPG, .557 TS%, 108.5 O rating
00 Shaq 32.3 PPG, .637 TS%, 116.0 O rating

Shaq was very comparable to MJ and probably better in the playoffs. Shaq had 2 important series in the playoffs (Blazers, Pacers) and he averaged 33.5 points per 36 and 69.4 FG%, +18.2 Net rating per 100, 118.4 on court O rating in the 4th quarter in those 2 series.

Playoff Clutch:
Shaq was also clutch in the playoffs. In the 4th quarter when the score was within 5 points and 5 minutes left or less, Shaq dominated in the playoffs.

Per 48:
44.9 pts, .610 TS%, 19.8 reb, 4.0 ast, 6.6 blk, +33.0, 128 on court O rating

When the Lakers were down by 5 or less with 5 minutes or less left in the game:
11 minutes, 13 pts (5-8 FG), 6 reb, +15 +/-

Playoffs:
Shaq was as brilliant in the playoffs as he was in the regular season. His impact was certainly as high.
Shaq on court: +115 (+6 per 100 possessions)
Shaq off court: -61 (-27.3 per 100 possessions)
+33.3 per 100 possessions

That impact was more apparent in the final 2 rounds where the Lakers had their most difficult challenge. Shaq played 45.7 MPG in those 2 rounds, but the Lakers absolutely collapsed without him on the court.

On court: +21 (+1.8 per 100 possessions)
Off court: 35 minutes, -43 points (-61.0 per 100 possessions)
+62.8 per 100 possessions

Now granted it is a small sample size, but it’s absurd how the Lakers had a higher losing margin (-43) than they did minutes (35) without Shaq on the court. With Shaq on the court they had a 107.8 Offensive Rating. I estimated that they had a 73.4 Offensive Rating in the possessions that Shaq missed in the final 2 rounds.

1st round:
Vs. Sacramento, #7 in SRS, #10 in D rating:
29/17/3, 54.3 FG%. Shaq has a 32/18/4, 15-24 (.625) closeout game in a 27 point win.

Vs. Phoenix, #4 in SRS, #3 in D rating:
30/16/3, 55.9 FG%. Had games of 37/14, 38/20, and 37/17.

Vs. Blazers, #2 in SRS, #5 in D rating:
26/14/4, 53.7 FG%. Starts off really hot in the series. Has a bad game 6. Then in game 7, Shaq steps it up in the 4th quarter. He goes 3-3 and draws 5 fouls in the quarter. Sabonis starts the quarter with 2 fouls in the first 3 quarters. 9 minutes later, he fouls out of the game, with all 4 fouls coming against Shaq. He touched the ball 11 times in 16 halfcourt 4th quarter possessions. He passed it out 3 times and the other 8 times he went 3-3 FG and drew 5 fouls.

Vs. Pacers, #6 in SRS:
38/17/2, 61.1 FG%. Arguably the greatest finals in history. He had games of 43/19, 40/24, 33/13, 36/21, 35/11, 41/12. He shot 59% or better in 5 of those games. The Lakers had a 109 O rating with him on the court (+7.7 relative to playoff average). He did it while his top 2 offensive guys didn’t do much.
Kobe- 15.6 PPG, 36.7 FG%
Rice- 11.5 PPG, 40.0 FG%

The most impressive is what Shaq did to the Pacers frontline (Smits, Davis, Perkins, Croshere, and Tabak). They combined for 102 fouls in 6 games (17 per game) after they combined for 10.8 fouls per game in the regular season. Crazy thing is the only thing that held back Shaq was FT shooting. If he shot his regular season average at the FT line in the finals, he would have averaged over 40 PPG in this finals.

Shaq certainly had a few weaknesses that year like his FT shooting, but I think overall he has a great case as the best season of all-time or at least slightly below MJ at his absolute peak.

[Djoker]

1. 1977 Kareem Why Kareem > Shaq and why 1977?

In terms of rTS, Kareem blows Shaq out of the water. He's a 70% free throw shooter and has the sky hook so he is the most valuable during crunch time of all the top centers. Kareem is a more active defender. He can't foul out entire frontcourts but on the other hand he has no exploitable weaknesses. Shaq's weakness in P&R defense was exploited by many teams namely the Kings and Spurs and teams resorted to Hack-a-Shaq in crunch time. In the 2000 Finals Shaq shot 38% from the line and missed a whopping 57 free throws in that series.

Per 75 Regular Season Stats:
1977 Kareem: 24.5 pts, 12.5 reb (3.0 o), 3.6 ass, 3.0 blk, 1.1 stl on 60.8 %TS (+9.7 rTS) with ? to
2000 Shaq: 28.6 pts, 13.1 reb (4.1 o), 3.7 ass, 2.9 blk, 0.5 stl on 57.8 %TS (+5.5 rTS) with 2.7 to

Per 75 Playoff Stats:
1977 Kareem: 28.4 pts, 14.6 reb (3.8 o), 3.4 ass, 2.9 blk, 1.4 stl on 64.6 %TS (+13.5 rTS) with ? to
2000 Shaq: 28.2 pts, 14.2 reb (4.7 o), 2.9 ass, 2.2 blk, 0.5 stl on 55.6 %TS (+3.3 rTS) with 2.3 to

That efficiency really jumps out at you! And given Kareem's lack of weaknesses and more active defense I don't see how he doesn't get a nod over Shaq for me. It's not a slam dunk or anything but I have more faith that peak Kareem is the better basketball player. And even though this is a peaks project not a longevity discussion, Kareem's better longevity still makes me more confident in his peak. He was a very similar player from 1974-1980 while IMO definitely peaking in 1977. The reason I pick this version of Kareem over 1971 and 1974 is that he's a lot thicker and more capable of dealing with physicality than in his Bucks' days. Unlike his early career, he weighed around 260 lbs so could also bang with big centers. And in 1979/1980 he's still the same guy offensively but has lost a little bit of motor and become a worse rebounder and also started cruising in the regular season a bit too much to be among the GOAT peaks.

(1971 Kareem, 1974 Kareem, 1980 Kareem)

2. 2000 Shaq

I take 2000 Shaq over 1967 Wilt who was hard to believe an even worse free throw shooter. And unlike Shaq he legitimately struggled against Nate Thurmond in the 1967 Finals offensively. Wilt is by far the better defender but in terms of scoring it isn't close. Wilt did his best Bill Russell impersonation in his peak season more than a Shaq impersonation. And quite honestly at the risk of offending old school Wilt fans, I'm just not totally sold on Wilt from the eye test. I've watched all the available footage on the internet. His footwork in the post seems rudimentary and while he is an athletic goliath maybe the most athletic basketball player ever considering his size, he rarely went at people the way Shaq did with physicality. And it's shame too because he could have been better than he was just with a more aggressive mentality. When defenses boxed him out and came back in transition, Wilt just doesn't seem like an effective offensive force in the halfcourt comparable to Shaq. He would resort to fadeaways or just hold the ball and meekly pass it out instead of taking it strong for two points.

I also take Shaq over Lebron just for the sheer dominance although I do flip-flop between the two and can see a case for 2009/2012 Lebron over peak Shaq although I still think gun to my head I'd go with Shaq simply because of his gravity and how he opens the floor for shooters. I see all three of Shaq/Wilt/Lebron as very close peak wise. Imperfect players but seriously dominant to be among the greatest peaks ever. Shaq played at a similar level in the 2001 and 2002 postseasons but never had a complete campaign comparable to 2000 and that whole season he was consistently unreal start to finish.

3. 2013 Lebron

Like stated above, there are things about 1967 Wilt that just make me skeptical. The terrible free throw shooting, the lack of offensive aggression... I just have that gut feeling that I wouldn't want him on my team over Lebron in a must-win playoff game and it seems weird for intangibles to win out but they kind of do. I feel like peak Lebron simply gives me a better chance to win a game than peak Wilt.

As for the best Lebron season I went with 2013.

His numbers were off the charts in 2009 but I definitely subscribe to the outlier theory... after all his 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011 postseasons weren't within light years of the 2009 one and I don't believe for a second that 2009 Lebron was somehow magically a much better player than he was in 2008 and 2010. That doesn't make sense. To pick 2009 I would have to be able to logically convince myself that 2010 is in play as well... and it simply isn't! 2010 Lebron showed mental frailty that is hard to ignore.

In 2012, he was worse than in 2013 both on offense and defense in the regular season and worse on defense in the playoffs. He was better in 2012 playoffs offensively but single year playoff data is noisy. Lebron's offense in 2013 is probably getting a bit underrated. The Bulls/Pacers/Spurs were all tough defenses throwing the kitchen sink at Lebron. And at sample of 20ish games, a shooting slump is all it takes to have noticeably worse numbers. 2013 Lebron wasn't a worse offensive player than 2012 Lebron. It's hard for me to conclude he was.

2016 I considered very strongly but I don't think I could pick it. Sure he had back-to-back finals games with 40+ points but his overall playoff numbers were similar to 2013 and defense was equally impressive while I believe that 2013 Lebron had much better motor throughout the season. 2016 Lebron had the luxury of resting until the Finals and was probably much fresher late in the playoffs and that cannot be discounted.

(2009 Lebron, 2012 Lebron, 2016 Lebron)

[capfan33]

1. 2013 Lebron (2017 and 2009/10 also have great arguments)
I've already made my feelings very clear on why I think this is Lebron's best season and how Wade's injury completely screwed the Heat's postseason offense. This isn't the best version of Lebron offensively or defensively, but I do think it's the best combination of both. Incredible scorer who was more well-rounded than Cleveland Lebron due to better jump shooting, post-up play and off-ball movement, along with excellent playmaking. Single-handedly carried the Heat offense in the postseason against elite defenses, putting up eye-popping numbers with Wade off the floor against said elite defenses. And one of the best perimeter defensive peaks ever, a legit rim protector when he wanted to be that could also shut down Tony Parker for extended stretches of time, extraordinarily good at rotating and reading opposing offenses. If Wade doesn't get injured, I would put money on this being the consensus choice for Lebron's peak.

2. 1977 Kareem (74 and 76 also have great arguments)
I originally put this 4th but 70sFan has backed up a lot of my subjective intution on this with a boatload of data that makes me much more comfortable putting Kareem over Shaq. The main difference, which I do think needs to be accounted for, is era. Kareem did everything he did without a 3-point line and a reffing environment that probably hindered him a fair amount as opposed to Shaq. He was an absurd combination of half-court scoring (and also, pace estimates undersell his scoring because he didn't run in transition often) along with great playmaking. If he had the spacing to work with that Shaq did, I feel like he would probably be a toss-up at worst compared to Shaq offensively and was clearly better defensively. As such, I'm putting him at 3.

3. 2000 Shaq
The one season Shaq completely put it together. A physical anomaly of titanic proportions, we all know what Shaq was. He was the "MDE", and made sure teams knew that every night. There's something about how physically overpowering Shaq was, how helpless he made other 7-foot goliaths look, that makes me shake my head everytime I watch him. Just a ridiculous inside presence that exerted extraordinary pressure on teams frontcourts and will to compete. Also a good passer at this point and his best defensive season where he actually kind of gave a ****, this is clearly the best version of Shaq, and my pick for 4.

Wilt, Hakeem and Duncan are basically a toss-up for me, I'm willing to be swayed by whatever arguments I see for each of these guys. They also all could be top-3 or even 1, it's hard to definitively say.

[Lou Fan]

1. 00 Shaquille O'Neal

Same reasons as before. 70s Fans has brought up some good points on Kareem vs Shaq in the last thread that I think people should read.

2. 64 Russell

That being said I decided to switch Russell ahead of Kareem this around partly because I think he deserves more traction but also because I've given it some more thought and I think Russ is the right choice here. Nothing compares to the dominance he had in the defenses he led.

From 1961-1965 the ran off 5 consecutive historically dominant seasons. In 1961 they were 8.2 points better than league average, 62 8.7, 63 9.1, 64 11.5!!!, 65 9.9. Just look at those numbers. It's absolutely staggering. But how do I know Russell was driving that impact you ask? First, before Russell they were a bottom defensive team and immediately jumped 6.3 points relatie to league average (-1.8 to +4.5) and 8.0 unadjusted points (keep in mind there were only 8 teams so 1 team could effect league averages significantly). 8 point defensive improvement and that's rookie Russ. Then after Russell they dropped to the middle of the pack, losing 6.2 relative points and 10.1 raw points as they go from +6.9 to +0.7. This is old man retiring Russ impact (though admittedly he was still damn good). Now just imagine the impact peak Russ was pumping out on the ridiculously dominant 1964 Celtics defense. This Celtics defense was 5.6 points better than the second best team in the league.

Russell's freak athleticism and size allowed him to be a pantheon level defender both vertically and horizontally. He covered wide swaths of the court stifling threats left and right while also protecting the rim at an all time clip. His defensive versatility is incredibly valuable as it allows coaching staffs tons of flexibility on what type of schemes to run that will best suit your other players. Russ was like a makeup artist. He covers up all the blemishes. His defensive skillset (the vast majority of his impact) is therefore highly portable as it's hard to imagine a team scenario where his defense loses much value. Even next to another elite rim protector he could play the more KG role and be dominant that way. That's the thing about Russell our minds don't quite understand his defensive value because there is no other real comparison. He's KG if he protected the rim like Duncan or Duncan if he moved like KG. These are both imo Mount Rushmore defenders and he has the best of both of them. I might even be understating his mobility as he was a world class high jumper and according to teammates an incredibly fast sprinter.

I'm at work so I gotta stop but I'd like to see people give some real thought to Russ here

3. 1971 Kareem
Same reasons as before.

Alt 77 Kareem

Also considering: 17 Curry (Glad Doc brought him up), 93 Hakeem, 09 LeBron, 04 KG (this will be an interesting one), 03 Duncan

[Dutchball97]

1. 2000 Shaquille O'Neal - Near unanimous MVP who went on a dominant play-off run capped off by arguably the most dominant finals performance ever. The Lakers were a pretty well rounded team but not incredibly stacked. Even Kobe wasn't quite at his peak either. What definitely works in Shaq's favor is their strength of competition in the post-season. They faced the 7th, 4th, 2nd and 6th highest SRS teams despite being the 1st seed, making this one of the hardest roads to a title by a top seed. I get that some people might have some other guys over him as a "better player" but when looking at the best seasons 2000 Shaq is most certainly up there with the best of them.

2. 2013 LeBron James - It's a testament to LeBron's incredibly high level consistency that he's getting votes for 5-6 different seasons over the span of a decade. Though it hurts him slightly (barely as he's likely getting this #2 spot) that he doesn't have this one signature run where everything clicked all the way through. I think his 2013 season is the closest he got to a perfect season though. Another near unanimous MVP campaign with a dominant title run. The level of competition Miami faced was pretty lackluster in the east but you can only beat who is in front of you. Wade was on the decline so LeBron also had to step up more though. Sometimes his finals performance gets held against him because he had trouble getting going scoring wise the first couple games but overall I'd still call it a pretty good showing against a very strong defensive team.

2012 LeBron James

3. 1967 Wilt Chamberlain - An insanely dominant season all around that was difficult to keep below Shaq and LeBron. His play-off left me with some questions about the effectiveness of Wilt's scoring though as the more he shot, the more likely the 76ers were to drop a game. He was also very poor in free throw shooting during the finals, even more so than Shaq. I can't drop it too much though as Wilt was incredibly effective on both sides of the floor. The 76ers also had massive success with 68 wins followed by an imposing title run with Wilt as the clear leading player on the team.

2016 LeBron James

The next players on my radar are (in chronological order) Russell, Kareem, Bird, Hakeem and Duncan.

[Colbinii]

1. 2013 Lebron (2017 and 2009/10 also have great arguments)
I've already made my feelings very clear on why I think this is Lebron's best season and how Wade's injury completely screwed the Heat's postseason offense. This isn't the best version of Lebron offensively or defensively, but I do think it's the best combination of both. Incredible scorer who was more well-rounded than Cleveland Lebron due to better jump shooting, post-up play and off-ball movement, along with excellent playmaking. Single-handedly carried the Heat offense in the postseason against elite defenses, putting up eye-popping numbers with Wade off the floor against said elite defenses. And one of the best perimeter defensive peaks ever, a legit rim protector when he wanted to be that could also shut down Tony Parker for extended stretches of time, extraordinarily good at rotating and reading opposing offenses. If Wade doesn't get injured, I would put money on this being the consensus choice for Lebron's peak.

2. 1977 Kareem (74 and 76 also have great arguments)
I originally put this 4th but 70sFan has backed up a lot of my subjective intution on this with a boatload of data that makes me much more comfortable putting Kareem over Shaq. The main difference, which I do think needs to be accounted for, is era. Kareem did everything he did without a 3-point line and a reffing environment that probably hindered him a fair amount as opposed to Shaq. He was an absurd combination of half-court scoring (and also, pace estimates undersell his scoring because he didn't run in transition often) along with great playmaking. If he had the spacing to work with that Shaq did, I feel like he would probably be a toss-up at worst compared to Shaq offensively and was clearly better defensively. As such, I'm putting him at 3.

3. 2000 Shaq
The one season Shaq completely put it together. A physical anomaly of titanic proportions, we all know what Shaq was. He was the "MDE", and made sure teams knew that every night. There's something about how physically overpowering Shaq was, how helpless he made other 7-foot goliaths look, that makes me shake my head everytime I watch him. Just a ridiculous inside presence that exerted extraordinary pressure on teams frontcourts and will to compete. Also a good passer at this point and his best defensive season where he actually kind of gave a ****, this is clearly the best version of Shaq, and my pick for 4.

Wilt, Hakeem and Duncan are basically a toss-up for me, I'm willing to be swayed by whatever arguments I see for each of these guys. They also all could be top-3 or even 1, it's hard to definitively say.

You need to be more clear in your vote.

Are you saying this?

1) 2013 LeBron James
2017 LeBron James
2009 LeBron James
2010 LeBron James
2) 1977 Kareem
1974 Kareem
1976 Kareem
3) 2000 Shaq

[capfan33]

1. 2013 Lebron (2017 and 2009/10 also have great arguments)
I've already made my feelings very clear on why I think this is Lebron's best season and how Wade's injury completely screwed the Heat's postseason offense. This isn't the best version of Lebron offensively or defensively, but I do think it's the best combination of both. Incredible scorer who was more well-rounded than Cleveland Lebron due to better jump shooting, post-up play and off-ball movement, along with excellent playmaking. Single-handedly carried the Heat offense in the postseason against elite defenses, putting up eye-popping numbers with Wade off the floor against said elite defenses. And one of the best perimeter defensive peaks ever, a legit rim protector when he wanted to be that could also shut down Tony Parker for extended stretches of time, extraordinarily good at rotating and reading opposing offenses. If Wade doesn't get injured, I would put money on this being the consensus choice for Lebron's peak.

2. 1977 Kareem (74 and 76 also have great arguments)
I originally put this 4th but 70sFan has backed up a lot of my subjective intution on this with a boatload of data that makes me much more comfortable putting Kareem over Shaq. The main difference, which I do think needs to be accounted for, is era. Kareem did everything he did without a 3-point line and a reffing environment that probably hindered him a fair amount as opposed to Shaq. He was an absurd combination of half-court scoring (and also, pace estimates undersell his scoring because he didn't run in transition often) along with great playmaking. If he had the spacing to work with that Shaq did, I feel like he would probably be a toss-up at worst compared to Shaq offensively and was clearly better defensively. As such, I'm putting him at 3.

3. 2000 Shaq
The one season Shaq completely put it together. A physical anomaly of titanic proportions, we all know what Shaq was. He was the "MDE", and made sure teams knew that every night. There's something about how physically overpowering Shaq was, how helpless he made other 7-foot goliaths look, that makes me shake my head everytime I watch him. Just a ridiculous inside presence that exerted extraordinary pressure on teams frontcourts and will to compete. Also a good passer at this point and his best defensive season where he actually kind of gave a ****, this is clearly the best version of Shaq, and my pick for 4.

Wilt, Hakeem and Duncan are basically a toss-up for me, I'm willing to be swayed by whatever arguments I see for each of these guys. They also all could be top-3 or even 1, it's hard to definitively say.

You need to be more clear in your vote.

Are you saying this?

1) 2013 LeBron James
2017 LeBron James
2009 LeBron James
2010 LeBron James
2) 1977 Kareem
1974 Kareem
1976 Kareem
3) 2000 Shaq

Sorry
1. 2013 Lebron
2. 1977 Kareem
3. 2000 Shaq

[Proxy]

1. 2013 LeBron James (2012, 2009, 2016)

Best peak for the best floor raiser of All-Time, say what you want about 2009 LeBron, but this version to me feels more polished on both ends - for example similar athleticism w/ better body control, better passing, better shooting, better post counters, and less unnecessary movements on defense while still making high leverage plays all the time and I think he'd do even better in a similar role. I think Wade's decline makes this season stand out less than it should statistically as he was arguably a negative player for the Heat offensively while LeBron was on the floor in the playoffs and his statistical profile without him on the court looks just as good if not better than it did in 2009 or in 2016 onwards. The '12 - '14 Heat averaged a +8.83 rORTG(+11 Net Rating) in the playoffs against some pretty strong defensive comp despite a few other players on the decline in that stretch, especially in 2014. I decided to go him over #2 because I view the defensive gap as slightly more valuable than the offensive gap.

2. 1991 Michael Jordan (1989, 1990, 1992)

Basically a tie with #1, my pick for the GOAT scorer alongside Kareem and one of the best creators of all-time. His playoff box creation estimates in his peak from 1989-1991 have him as creating around 14 shots every 100 possessions, which is not too far apart from LeBron. This Jordan is also a much improved decision maker from earlier years pre 1989, better leveraging his scoring gravity with his slightly improved passing capability and missing less creation opportunities - helping him average a career best 8.4 APG in the playoffs(11.4 in the finals) and leading the Bulls to a +11.7 playoff rORTG(+15.8 Net Rating). This isn't his defensive peak, part due to motor but it's still probably up there against most individal guard defensive seasons ever and he always could ramp it up occassionally. I honestly think him and Bron are maybe just on a tier on their own in reliability at their peaks because they've done it so consistently.

3. 2000 Shaquille O'Neal (2001)

This peak was really only slightly above who I have at number 4, this Shaq is considered the most dominant player ever for a reason. Like the shift he caused in terms of roster construction across the league - forcing teams to reduce star big minutes and employ replacement level bigs to guard Shaq in fear for star foul trouble, and constantly sending his team into the bonus is just so valuable. Not to mention how fouling him and sending him to the line is literally BAD halfcourt defense! There was really no counter to Shaq's quick hitting dominance on offense outside of the Blazers a bit and his defense also peaked in this season - leading the Lakers to a -5.9 defense in the RS surrounded by other good defensive talent. The dominance extended to the playoffs too, where the '00 - '02 Lakers posted a 3 year playoff stretch of a +12 Net Rating in the midst of a 10 year stretch  from '95 - '04 where O'Neal led an average of a +7.89 playoff rORTG, and a mindboggling history best +20.7 Net Rating in that 2001 playoff run co-led by Kobe. To further help his argument, APM data paints his 5 year peak is the best ever for the years it's available(on/off data is available since 1994), outside of LeBron and around KG, Steph, and Timmy depending on the database, but his game is arguably more resilient to the playoffs than those 3 so i'll give him the edge due to that and just confidence in his value compared to older players. I have some questions related to his defense in a playoff setting(2000 season does seem like an outlier), so it keeps me from pushing him into my t2.

Playoff team #s are from backpicks.com

Now number 4 is arguably the most influential player ever with how he transformed the way defense is played in the league forever. The greatest defender ever, and the engine behind one of the greatest dynasties in sports history.

There are alot of reasons to believe Russell played a significant part in the Celtics team dominance and many have argued how he has a case for being the most valuable player of his era so I won't focus TOO much on that unless asked to.

Here are a few pretty strong indicators he has:

-We can see it on film and we can read/hear about the era in news articles and from others that have experienced the era.

-WOWY data(also looking at the team pre and post Russell and how the league changed over time).

-Team minutes distribution(how remained constant but everyone around him changed and played nowhere near the same amount of minutes in most years and they were still dominant), etc.

-

But i'll talk about why I believe their team net ratings still undersell how dominant they truly were like I did in the last thread for 2 main reasons.

1. Using the commonly used net ratings is not a true era adjustment - in lower scoring environments a team being worth +5 per 100 has more value, this can be seen when comparing the TS+ framework vs using rTS%.

Real life situations will never be this extreme but here is an example as to why we should use the former

In a league where the average TS% is 10, being +5 would mean you are scoring at a rate 1.5x(150% better) more effectively than league average

In a league where the average TS% is 50, being +5 would mean you are scoring at a rate 1.1x(110% better) more effectively than league average

When calculating net ratings using percentages rather than absolutes, the Celtcs would likely look even more dominant because the era they played in was a lower scoring environment and significantly harder for other teams to make up ground with less PPP available.

2. The Celtics having their outlier dominance in a league with 8 ish teams drags down league averages, supressing their own numbers, and makes it harder to drag them down even further(which is probably why their playoff team numbers look so wonky).

-

I'm also starting to believe Russell is just a very clear positive offensive player. I think many people think of him the wrong way because he does seem to have a bunch of flaws in the halfcourt on film(like his post scoring arsenal does not seem very efficient, turnovers even tho that just seems like an era thing).

When I think of him being a truly all-time level transition threat for a center with and without the ball, with great court awarenes, very strong passing for a center, a modern-ish handle that could take other bigs off the dribble, all-time offensive rebounding ability, a little bit of a post game, and lob potential with his athleticism. I really think this is a unicorn that could be a clear positive on most teams but maybe i'm just higher on him than others.

https://youtu.be/PEs4KC4xHE0

I think it's possible his RS efficiency is also suppressed by taking alot of late shot clock bailout shots(his teammates are also overstated offensively), I feel like i've seen this a lot on film.

But in the season I chose for his peak and in a large chunk of his prime not only does his efficiency rise, but his volume rose in the playoffs as well which is very rare for an all-timer.

From backpicks.com (from '60 - '66)
Going from a negative OBPM -> +.073 OBPM(Peaking as +1.2 in '62)

Other years could deserve a shot for sure, but from what I gathered this was the most dominant RS Celtics team in the RS and was followed by Russell's arguably best playoff run ever so I decided to go with this one and give him the slight edge over my upcoming picks.

So for this thread my vote is going

1. 2013 LeBron James (2012, 2016, 2009)

2. 2000 Shaquille O' Neal (I am no longer adding 2001 because I was convinced by the Kareem arguments in the last thread)

3. 1962 Bill Russell (1964, 1963, 1965)

[The-Power]

Especially for those who emphasize two-way bigs at this stage: where does 2021 Giannis fit in for you? Is he that far off from the players mentioned thus far (Kareem, Wilt, Shaq, Russell)?

[Dr Positivity]

I still think Lebron is better on offense than Shaq and a great defender, if Shaq is better on D by nature of playing C I don't think it's by that much.

[falcolombardi]

Unibrodavis numbers on 2016 lebron are making me reconsider thinghs, colts numbers on wade-less lebron in 2013 playoffs are mindblowing....but is a relatively small sample size still

I think i will still go with a lebron season for thread #2.... but not sure which one now.... i also am incredibly high on duncan hakeen shaq, wilt and kareem peaks

After the goat two way bigs i am looking into bill russel i know i may be too low on russel but my instinct is that the gap between him and someone like hakeem or peak wilt cannot be so big as to make up the offensive gap but i may be wrong

Russel was the ultimate outlier in defense

Then guys like magic, curry, nash, wade, bird, garnett

[Lou Fan]

Unibrodavis numbers on 2016 lebron are making me reconsider thinghs, colts numbers on wade-less lebron in 2013 playoffs are mindblowing....but is a relatively small sample size still

I think i will still go with a lebron season for thread #2.... but not sure which one now.... i also am incredibly high on duncan hakeen shaq, wilt and kareem peaks

After the goat two way bigs i am looking into bill russel i know i may be too low on russel but my instinct is that the gap between him and someone like hakeem or peak wilt cannot be so big as to make up the offensive gap but i may be wrong

Russel was the ultimate outlier in defense

Then guys like magic, curry, nash, wade, bird, garnett

Do you have Russell over Wilt all time and if so why? If Wilt has similar defensive value with much better offense and more longevity surely he's the greater player. The clear majority of Wilt's value is defensive imo and Russ is clearly in another tier there. Also Russ was a solid offensive player the TS% makes him look bad but adjusting for league average he was around average on solid volume.