RealGM Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #2 - 2012-13 LeBron James

[DraymondGold]

I imagine LeBron will likely be going this round, but I wanted to bring up a comparison of 2017 Curry and 2000 Shaq for the bottom of people's ballots. I think Curry might have a legitimate top 5 peak case over Shaq.

With that said, here's The Statistical Case for 2017 Curry over 2000 Shaq:
Plus minus data
Ai. AuPM: 2017 Curry > 2000 Shaq (and healthy 2016 Curry (2nd all time) >> 2000 Shaq )
Aii. Postseason AuPM: 2017 Curry (2nd all time) >> 2000 Shaq (4th all time)
Bi. Goldstein RAPM: 2000 Shaq (5th all time) > 2017 Curry
Bii. Goldstein Playoff PIPM (3 years for sample size): 2017 Curry (8th all time) > 2000 Shaq
Additional plus minus stats: C. on/off: 2017 Curry > 2000 Shaq
Additional plus minus stats: D. WOWY: 2000 Shaq > 2017 Curry
Additional plus minus stats: E. ESPN’s RPM: 2017 Curry (7th all time) > 2000 Shaq (and healthy 2016 Curry is 2nd all time)
Additional plus minus stats: F. Backpicks’ CORP evaluation: 2000 Shaq (2nd all time) > 2017 Curry (though healthy 2016 Steph Curry is 4th all time)


Box score-based data
Gi. Backpicks BPM: 2000 Shaq > 2017 Curry (but healthy 2016 Curry (2nd all time) > 2000 Shaq)
Gii. Postseason Backpicks BPM: 2017 Curry (4th all time) >> 2000 Shaq
Hi. BR’s BPM: 2000 Shaq > 2017 Curry (but healthy 2016 Curry (4th all time) > 2000 Shaq)
Hii. BR’s Postseason BPM: 2017 Curve > 2000 Shaq
Additional box score stats: Ii. WS/48: 2000 Shaq > 2017 Curry (but healthy 2016 Curry (5th all time) > 2000 Shaq)
Additional box score stats: Iii. Postseason WS/48: 2017 Curry > Shaq

In short, 2017 Curry beats 2000 Shaq in 8/14 of these total stats and in 5/5 of the playoff-specific stats. If we add healthy 2016 Curry to the mix, Curry beats Shaq in 11/14 stats. Adding 2001 Shaq to the mix does not help Shaq. The only 3 stats where Shaq beats Curry are Goldstein's regular season RAPM (but not PIPM), WOWY (which is a particularly noisy stat in smaller samples), CORP (which is Ben Taylor's personal evaluation).

Put simply, I’m not sure the data supports having peak Shaq clearly over peak Curry. However, there are possible contextual factors worth considering:
1. Scalability. If you value ceiling raising over floor raising, this supports 2017 Curry > 2000 Shaq.
2. Resilience. Shaq may have the advantage here over the course of his prime, but the data universally shows 2017 Curry as the better playoff performer over 2000 Shaq. Further studies have shown Curry does not play statistically worse in the playoffs when he’s healthy (which he is in 2017). Again, according to the data: Playoff 2017 Curry > Playoff 2000 Shaq. (though for overall primes, Shaq > Curry in resilience largely due to health). Speaking of health...
3. Health. Both Shaq and Curry are injury risks. Although Shaq is healthier in his prime, injuries are not a factor in their peak years.
4. Defense. Shaq is the better defender in a vacuum, but I’m not sure he’s that much better relative to position, and the data suggests the defensive advantage is not enough to put peak Shaq over peak Curry.
5. Fit. Both had favorable team circumstances, though in my estimation 2017 Curry had a more favorable fit than 2000 Shaq. Here's a point for Shaq!
6. Time machine. Hard to know for sure. People say Curry would suffer if forced to shoot less 3s in the past; on the other hand, if he found a coach that did let him shoot 3s in volume, his relative offensive advantage would be even greater. People say Shaq would be more valuable offensively playing bully-ball against smaller lineups today; on the other hand, higher pace (with Shaq’s poorer conditioning), stricter big man offensive fouling calls, and a massive increase in the importance of perimeter and pick and roll defense would decrease Shaq’s value.

I would certainly still consider arguments for Shaq. Perhaps there are statistics that I'm missing, or perhaps there's a 7th contextual factor that I'm missing, or perhaps one of the 6 contextual factors I discussed is compelling enough to help Shaq overcome the statistical advantage.... But I'm not sure that's true. Ultimately, I won't have 2017 Curry first on my ballot for the 2nd greatest peak of all time, but I think he has a serious case for top 5 over some of the other GOAT big men (hopefully I'll have the time to statistically compare Curry vs other big men later ). I'd love to hear people's thoughts!

[falcolombardi]

Some questions to ponder at this stage

Magic vs curry for "one way" offensive peaks: neither 87 magic nor 17 curry (temptative choices for both peaks) are particularly good on defense, both led a all time offense but magic arguably did it with less overall talent

For people bringing curry in their top 3 or top 5? What makes him better than magic?

And perhaps more hot take.....is he necesarilly better than peak nash? Or at least better enough by such a gap that would justify a big gap vetween both? Nash actually had the better offensive results by a small but clear margin

Is the defebsive gap between peak nash and 17 curry that big?

[Dutchball97]

Some questions to ponder at this stage

Magic vs curry for "one way" offensive peaks: neither 87 magic nor 17 curry (temptative choices for both peaks) are particularly good on defense, both led a all time offense but magic arguably did it with less overall talent

For people bringing curry in their top 3 or top 5? What makes him better than magic?

And perhaps more hot take.....is he necesarilly better than peak nash? Nash also led a historical offense (multiple times) with no more offensive talent (arguably less) although his defense may be worse than curry?

I used to be pretty low on Curry's 2017 regular season but it's actually his best season by quite a margin by PI RAPM so combined with a very strong play-off run it's definitely a competitive peak. I think 87 Magic has slight edges in both the regular season and the play-offs but I'll probably have them really close.

[DraymondGold]

Some questions to ponder at this stage

Magic vs curry for "one way" offensive peaks: neither 87 magic nor 17 curry (temptative choices for both peaks) are particularly good on defense, both led a all time offense but magic arguably did it with less overall talent

For people bringing curry in their top 3 or top 5? What makes him better than magic?

And perhaps more hot take.....is he necesarilly better than peak nash? Nash also led a historical offense (multiple times) with no more offensive talent (arguably less) although his defense may be worse than curry?

I used to be pretty low on Curry's 2017 regular season but it's actually his best season by quite a margin by PI RAPM so combined with a very strong play-off run it's definitely a competitive peak. I think 87 Magic has slight edges in both the regular season and the play-offs but I'll probably have them really close.

Great question falcolombardi! And I'm glad you brought up Magic and Nash. Like you say, they're definitely up there in the all-time "one way" peaks (along with Russell lol). I personally have Curry and Magic as a small positive on defense, Russell as a relatively small positive on offense, and Nash as a negative on defense. But since most of their value comes on one side of the court, it's a natural comparison.

Unfortunately we have far fewer statistics going back to Magic (it’ll be great to see Squared2020’s stats keep getting updated though!). Here are the stats we do have:

A statistical comparison of 2017 Curry and 1987 Magic
Plus-minus based stats:
A. AuPM (no data available for magic. 2016 Curry 2nd all time).
Bi. Goldstein RAPM / Historical Square2020 RAPM: 1985 Magic (4th all time) > 2017 Steph Curry (7th all time) (But only a 41 game sample for Magic.)
Bii. Goldstein Playoff PIPM (3 years for sample size): 2017 Curry (8th all time) > 1987 Magic
Additional plus minus stats: C. on/off: (no data available for magic. Can't find an all time list to rank Curry! )
Additional plus minus stats: D. WOWY: 2016/2017 Curry > 1987 Magic (not sure about full prime WOWY. I brought in 16 Curry because Ben hasn't finished publishing Curry's mid/post-2017 WOWY numbers yet).
Additional plus minus stats: E. ESPN’s RPM: (no data available for magic. 2016 Curry 2nd all time)
Additional plus minus stats: F. Backpicks’ CORP evaluation: 2017 Curry > 1987 Magic (and healthy 2016 Steph Curry is 4th all time)

Box score-based data
Gi. Backpicks BPM: 1987 Magic > 2017 Curry (but healthy 2016 Curry (2nd all time) > 1985 Magic)
Gii. Postseason Backpicks BPM: 2017 Curry (4th all time) > 1987 Magic
Hi. BR’s BPM: 1987 Magic > 2017 Curry (but healthy 2016 Curry (4th all time) > 1987 Magic)
Hii. BR’s Postseason BPM: 2017 Curve > 1987 Magic
Additional box score stats: Ii. WS/48: 1987 Magic > 2017 Curry (but healthy 2016 Curry (5th all time) > 1987 Magic)
Additional box score stats: Iii. Postseason WS/48: 2017 Curry > 1987 Magic

So 2017 Curry beats 1987 Magic in 6/10 of these total stats, and in 4/4 of the playoff-only stats. If we add 2016 Curry and either 86 Magic or 88 Magic (whichever helps Magic more), Curry wins in 7/10 Stats. Who knows what the missing data would say, and I also haven't considered my 6 contextual factors yet. Here's how I lean for the contextual factors right now: 1. Scalability (I lean Curry), 2. Resilience (close if healthy), 3. Health (Magic), 4. Defensive weighting (close), 5. Team Fit (possibly Curry benefited more from fit?), 6. Time machine (close). It's clearly a close battle, but my initial interpretation of the data says Curry comes out on top. Thoughts?

...

As for Nash, I'd have to check one more time to make sure I didn't miss one.... but from memory, peak Curry beats Nash in every single one of these stats except WOWY... Like you say though, I'm not sure how much of this comes from defense. It's possible Nash is the better offensive player, but his negative defense drags him down.

[NoxusApprentice]

Can consider this a shorter test ballot; my actual interest in contributing to this project is more for later ballots rather than the inevitable [1991 Jordan #1, ??? Lebron #2] format of these early selections, so if I need to undergo some grace period before my ballots are counted, that suits me fine.

1(a). 2015-16 Lebron James
1(b). 2016-17 Lebron James
I think UnibroDavis gave what should be pretty close to the definitive case for post-Miami Lebron, although I disagree with the elevation of 2018. Even if we wholly commit to playoffs over regular season, and although I buy the playoff preparedness arguments for these iterations of Lebron (it is why my vote is what it is), I do not really see the case for 2018 specifically apart from maybe that his Game 1 in the Finals might have been the greatest game ever played. If the logic is simply that Lebron becomes more resilient every year, then to me that should lead to a conclusion for 2020 as his peak: he won the title, he was the clear best player in the world, his passing was the best it had ever been, his defence was excellent throughout both the regular season and the postseason, and his “impact” numbers in both comfortably exceeded 2018’s. That logic about playoff preparedness also does not feel entirely unique Lebron either; would second threepeat Jordan not be capable of mentally dissecting opponents better than his younger self?

I am more skeptical that 2020 (or 2018) Lebron could improve upon 2016/17 Lebron than I am of the contrary. A question of whether either could improve upon the Miami years seems worth exploring, but for now I will side with prevailing wisdom.

1(c). 2012-13 Lebron James
(Could nitpick 2013 versus 2012 on a postseason basis, but personally, Colt’s analysis smoothed over some of those gripes.)

Analysis of the bigs is where this project becomes much more compelling. Next in line for me are Hakeem and then Kareem.

[ardee]

Some questions to ponder at this stage

Magic vs curry for "one way" offensive peaks: neither 87 magic nor 17 curry (temptative choices for both peaks) are particularly good on defense, both led a all time offense but magic arguably did it with less overall talent

For people bringing curry in their top 3 or top 5? What makes him better than magic?

And perhaps more hot take.....is he necesarilly better than peak nash? Nash also led a historical offense (multiple times) with no more offensive talent (arguably less) although his defense may be worse than curry?

I used to be pretty low on Curry's 2017 regular season but it's actually his best season by quite a margin by PI RAPM so combined with a very strong play-off run it's definitely a competitive peak. I think 87 Magic has slight edges in both the regular season and the play-offs but I'll probably have them really close.

Not being snarky I promise, but is that really the only metric that matters to you? How can anyone argue that 2016 wasn't his best regular season?

[No-more-rings]

Interesting and somewhat refreshing to see this many guys having Kareem and Shaq over Lebron’s peak. Lebron doesn’t even seem like a shoe-in for this spot which is even more interesting. Anyway i’ll be reading most of these threads although I won’t be able to participate. Started a new job recently and don’t really have the time anymore to make real long posts.

[LA Bird]

.

I want some of the people saying they think Curry was injured as an explanation for his bad performance to explain how it took him 39 days to recover from a grade 1 knee sprain and to find me an example of literally any other player that needed over a month to recover from a 2 week injury.

1. 2003 Duncan

I want to add this for Duncan since I'm going to speak on playoff RAPM later in my reasoning for Bill Russell -

Tim Duncan, despite having a super long career full of playoff performances that aren't in his peak level of play (2001-05 where Tim's RAPM over a 5 year period only trails Bron and KG and only barely) ranks 7th in playoff RAPM. His playoff RAPM is over every MVP since 98 aside from LeBron. I don't think there's really any number we can point to to show Duncan isn't the best player along with Bron and Shaq post MJ.

2. 2000 Shaq
3. 2001 Shaq

Spoiler:

1. 2003 Tim Duncan - I'll be voting not for for I think is the best player, instead I will be voting for who I think had the best seasons. I figure it'd make it much easier to have everyone graded on what they did, not what I think they'd be able to do. With that said the argument for Duncan over Shaq, LeBron, Jordan, Wilt, etc. falls into 3 different categories.

Competition/Cast:
2003 Duncan has individual player competition like non other. In 2003 there's zero argument that anyone was better than Duncan but what's also forgotten about 2003 is how many other players that could make this list peaked in 2003. The fact that Duncan was the clear best player in the league with so many other top 40ish (and a duo of top 10ish) peaks makes his body of work more impressive.

Shaquille O'Neal who is going to be getting 1st place votes for his play in 2000 and 2001 was still in his prime and close to his 2000 and 2001 level of play in 03. On it's own I think it would be a top 10 season here. In terms of his statistical performance his play was in line with his play during the threepeat. I'm not the biggest BPM fan but his highest postseason BPM ever came in 03. He also had his highest rTS% for any season he scored over 20 ppg in 2003. Looking at the advanced +/- numbers Shaq was 3rd in NPI RAPM and RAPM, and 2003 was in the middle of a stretch where Shaq was consistently top 3 in RAPM from 2001-2005.

Kevin Garnett also will be seeing votes in the top 10 for 2004 and 2003. He's the other player along with Duncan and Shaq filling out the top 3 in RAPM and having an amazing peak.

On the lower end of stars that were amazing in 2003 specifically we have the two SGs that will be looking to be voted in along with Jerry West, Stephen Curry, and D. Wade when we get into the teens/twenties, 2003 T-Mac (clearly his best season) and 2003 Kobe (arguably his best season).

Also did I forget to mention peak Jason Kidd (expect him towards the end of the list) and 2003 Dirk (leading a +7 offense for the 2nd year in a row)?

Duncan being above all these guys without much of a doubt is a testament to exactly how great he was. The other guys getting votes at this spot (91 MJ, 2013 LeBron, 2000 Shaq) didn't have 2nd best players as good as any of the top 5 players in 2003. I think 2013 KD and 91 Magic are closer to 2003 Dirk than 2003 KG.

Duncan also has the worst supporting cast of any champion getting a look this early. I don't think I need to do much convincing of that. The Spurs had a +9.1 net rating with Duncan on the court and a -5.6 without him. In the playoffs from 2001-2003 Duncan has the highest APM ever (Duncan and KG are the only players with top 50 APM peaks on both sides of the ball), highest raw on/off ever (+27.4), and if you look at Duncan's DAPM he's 2nd all time to Dikembe for his peak. By RAPM Duncan is right under LeBron, Shaq, and KG as the best 5 year peak ever (it's harder to go by single year with RAPM).

Looking at PIPM (probably the best all in one statistic for gauging impact - y'all know I'm not a big all in one fan but I know others respect it) 2003 Tim Duncan is 4th in PIPM Wins Added. 2016 Draymond, 2004 KG, and 2009 LeBron are the only players better. All 3 of those players famously didn't win a ring. For champions 2003 Duncan is #1 all time. 2000 Shaq is 2nd, 2013 LeBron is 3rd, 2016 LeBron is 4th, and 1991 MJ is 5th. Duncan also rates #1 all time in postseason AuPM per game. Now I don't think it's a coincidence these well respected all in one stats single out a top 3 similar to most of the top 3s I see in this thread (Bron, MJ, Shaq in some order) but including Duncan. He's not generally seen as on the same tier as these guys, maybe he should be.

Postseason Performance:
Duncan definitely has the most impressive postseason here. Even without the quad double being officially counted.

Duncan probably had the best defensive postseason ever (excluding Bill Russell). The Spurs had a -8.0 rDRTG in the playoffs that year led by Duncan. Duncan averaged 3.3 bpg that postseason and honestly probably directly affected at least another 2-3 plays a night (and he had 2 infamously unrecognized blocks). He was everywhere. For example I rewatched game 6 of the WCSF recently and Duncan had 2 blocks and 10 defensive rebounds on the box score, but he forced another 3 missed shots (2 jumpers, 1 at the rim) and 1 turnover.

In their first series against a great team they faced the defending 3 time champion Lakers. The Lakers were 50-32 so many think they fell off that year, but that's after a 26-25 start. They ended the season 24-7 and lost to the Spurs because of Duncan's defensive disruptiveness and his 28/12/5 on 57 TS% with only 2 TOVs a night. He followed that up with 28/17/6 with 3 TOVs a night on 60 TS% against the Mavs in the WCF. In the Finals Duncan broke the Finals block per game record with 32 blocks in 6 games (should've been at least 34). Overall he averaged 24/17/5 with 5 BPG against the Nets.

People might say his competition on a team level wasn't as strong as others but I think that's underrating the Lakers a lot. They're still a solid championship level squad in 03. Other than Rick Fox's injury I don't think they were weaker than the 02 Lakers. If anything with Devean George improving they were a bit better. The Mavs were down 2-1 with a healthy Dirk but I don't know how y'all would judge that as comp. Personally I see it as proof the Spurs probably would've still beat them at full strength but it's arguable. The Spurs also swept the Lakers in the regular season in 03 and from 99-04 they were 23-25 against LA overall so it's not like he wasn't used to beating LA.

Underrated Offense?:

I think offensively is where many think Tim falls short. In 2002 when the team was healthy the Spurs had a +4.4 offense. In 2001 they had a +3.6 offense. In 06 they had a +4.8 offense when healthy. In 07 they had a +4.1 offense. Duncan was able to be the key cog in a decent offense while also being the best defensive player in the league through most of his prime. In 03 he happened to have little help on the offensive end, but he still led a +2.0 offense (+2.6 in the playoffs).

For 3 year peaks when compared to Hakeem, Dirk, KG, Karl Malone, and Shaq in the postseason Duncan has the 2nd lowest scoring volume to KG but ranks 1st in scoring efficiency and 2nd to Hakeem in box creation (as provided by Elgee/TB).

In terms of adjusted scoring in 03 Duncan averaged 23.7 points per 75 on +4.5 rTS% (equal to 25.6 points per 75 on 61.1 TS% adjusted to 2022). He might've not been the highest volume scorer but his 25.5 AST% in the 03 run is higher than Giannis' in 2021 to compare it to the 2nd best PF season ever.

Overall I'm expecting to be the only Duncan vote for now, but I think he deserves serious consideration if we're talking the greatest single seasons of all time. He might or might not be better than Shaq, Jordan, and LeBron, but he certainly played like he was.

2. 2000 Shaquille O'Neal

The MDE. The clear best offensive player in the game and arguably top 5 defensively. The greatest part of this year was his consistency. He was only under 20 points 7 times that regular season, under 45% from the field 7 times, and the icing on the cake of this season was a 38/17 finals series (he averaged that while missing 9.5 FTs a game and having a game where he was 17/39 on FTs).

3. 2001 Shaq - When it comes to "perfect" seasons (seasons in which players were clearly the best player on the floor in almost every game played - let's say 90%) Hakeem, Jordan, Lebron, Wilt, etc. have them and usually I place them over a year like 2001 but on second thought maybe that was wrong. Shaq was half assing it this year. Defensively the Lakers ranked 21st and Shaq's on/off wasn't too hot on that end. There's no getting past that when discussing this season. Beyond that he was still the clear best offensive player in the league leading the Lakers to a +5.4 offense and when needed he became professional and absolutely obliterated teams now that he had another superstar in Kobe Bryant next to him.

At the end of the season Shaq decided to turn it on and averaged 34/13/4 on 63 TS% (122 ORTG) while going 9-1 (their one loss was by 1 point against the Knicks where Shaq had 31 points on 13 shots in 38 minutes while his team had 47 combined points on 30% shooting). Then in the playoffs they turned into the GOAT team next to the 2017 Warriors having a +21 net rating and going 15-1. In their one loss Shaq had 44 points, 20 rebounds (6 offensive), and 5 assists on 17/28 shooting against the DPOY and IMO the GOAT modern era defender. Overall Shaq had 20/10 in all but one of his last 33 games of the season (he had 19/14 against San Antonio in game 2). If 2000 Shaq is the most dominant season ever 2001 once Shaq gave a damn is what that same player would look like on a stacked team like the ones most of these guys we're mentioning outside of Duncan, Shaq, and Hakeem had.

4. 1962 Bill Russell - Another shocker from E-Balla I'm sure lol. As of late I've started to really care a lot more about defense in comparing individual players. Y'all all know I was always of the mindset that great offense > great defense for individual players but watching more basketball whether it's modern or old school hoops you start to realize if you can't defend at an elite level you can't contend. This Finals just saw the top 2 defensive teams playing each other in a defensive struggle even as the league tips the scales to the offense more than ever before.

I think postseason RAPM numbers also changed my mind on this. Seeing Draymond has a higher postseason RAPM than everyone else ever and that he consistently outperforms Steph in postseason +/- numbers even when he looks terrible on offense (like this year for example) really shifts your mindset. I've been rewatching a lot of old playoff games when I have the time and there's just a huge difference in how teams perform against top level offenses when they have ATG defenders on the floor and when they don't.

I guess being the quintessential "but how does player x do against elite defenses in the playoffs" guy for the last decade here was always leading me in this direction, but I've officially arrived in the defense > offense club lol.

Now to actually get into Bill Russell...

He's the best defender ever without a doubt. I don't think I need to explain to everyone how insane his defense was incredible but what made me choose 62 is his offense that year.

It's one of the 2 years his efficiency is above average after 1960, and his highest year by PPP after 1958. In the playoffs he averaged 22.4 PPG on 51.9 TS% which was good enough for him to rank 6th in PPG and 7th in TS%. In the Finals he averaged 22.9 PPG on 60 TS%. Down 3-2 Russell had a triple double in game 6 and 30/40 in game 7 to win the series. I've watched the parts of the game you can find recently and I think you all should, it's the last time an NBA Finals was decided in OT of a game 7. Russell had at least 4 blocks by my eyes but I wouldn't be shocked if IRL he doubled that.

[homecourtloss]

Concerns for Kareem: 1. postseason sample size in 1977. 2. How much did his regular season "coasting" enable his 1977 postseason success?


The argument against Kareem would be that his ridiculously efficient scoring in the 1977 postseason was a hot shooting streak (hot even for him), which wouldn't be sustainable in a larger postseason or if he didn't coast as much in the regular season.


Question: since Kareem played in a different era without the three point line, did he face more drives toward/near the rim? That might not change the fact that Kareem had a better rate of quality rotations / stops, but it might shrink his volume advantage go successful stops. Also: Did Kareem make fewer stops or quality rotations in the second half of the 70s vs the first half?

First of all, I wanted to mention that I appreciate your metrics based approach to player evaluation and the discussions and insights you bring to this board.

Thanks so much! I'm glad to hear

Secondly, this is the second time I’ve seen you refer to player “coasting” in the regular season enabling a playoff run. Do you have some objective evidence for saying Kareem coasted in 1977 or LeBron in 2016 (other time you mentioned it)? How is coasting measured? How does coasting help with limited playoff sample sizes? How do we know “coasting” helped the playoff run?

I don’t see the argument for either “coasting.” LeBron was the Cavs’ defensive anchor in 2016 on a team that had few plus defenders; everyone knows about his post season defense but his regular season defense was phenomenal as well. How does a player “coast” and manage to do that?

What do I mean by "coasting"? There's a pattern some all-time players show as they get older. They have their best regular seasons (statistically, defensively, in terms of defense, etc.) when they're younger. When they get older, they get slightly worse by these metrics in the regular season. Yet in the playoffs, they show greater improvements vs their regular season selves, and sometimes even improve over their younger playoff selves. There's evidence that this happened with older Kareem, older LeBron, older Jordan (though I don't think his 2nd threepeat playoff improvements are enough to take 98 Jordan over 91), Shaq (e.g. 2001), Kawhi, Curry (e.g. 2022), etc.

What causes this? There's a few possiblilities. For example, 1. Players have a higher motor when they're younger. This motor declines as they get older. This decline most often shows up in worse defensive performances (or less consistent defensive effort) relative to their younger selves, at least in the regular season. 2. Certainly as players get older, they gain experience and versatility which allows them to improve more. 3. Players may even intentionally decide not to go 100% in the regular season as they get older, to decrease injury risk, limit wear and tear, improve longevity, and save up their motor to reach that higher gear in the playoffs.

Evidence in support of coasting:
Both Kareem and LeBron had media articles and stories about their declining defensive effort in the regular season as they got older. There's also statistical evidence...
Ai. 2016 LeBron (regular season -> playoffs): +1.6 in AuPM, +3.5 in Backpicks BPM, improvements in Basketball Reference's BPM, improvements in WS/48, and I believe improved in RAPM/PIPM. These are noticeable improvements in almost all metrics. 2016 LeBron's regular season was below his earlier regular season performances in most of these metrics (compared to 2009, 2012, 2013), but his 2016 playoffs >> 2016 regular season, and his 2016 playoffs may be > 2009/2012/2013 playoffs.
Aii. 2016 Cavs (regular season -> playoffs): +6.93 offensive rating improvement, 1.92 defensive rating improvement, and +5.84 SRS improvement (5th all time) . So the improvements from the regular season to the playoffs by LeBron (and possibly others) does make a difference in team performance. (source: Sansterre's Top 100 Teams)
B. 1977 Kareem (regular season -> playoffs): significantly improved in Backpicks BPM, Basketball Reference's BPM, WS/48, etc. Again, 1977 Kareem's regular season was below some of his earlier regular seasons in these metrics, but his 1977 playoffs is clearly his best.

Why does this matter? Well, it becomes a question of each player's value, and what we value in our GOAT peaks. If 2016 LeBron and 1977 Kareem performed at their playoff level throughout the entire regular season (and if the metics showed this), I think we'd be almost universally taking those seasons as their peaks... and those peaks would have greater arguments against their peers. But they didn't... so instead we're debating 2016 vs 2009/2012/2013, and we're debating 1977 vs 1974/1971 (and vs 2000 Shaq).

That doesn't mean 2016 LeBron or 1977 Kareem had bad regular seasons. Like you say, Kareem still squeezed out 53 wins from a sub-optimal roster and 2016 LeBron was still his team's best defensive player. But they were worse relative to the heights they reached in the same playoffs, and in earlier regular seasons. Worse regular season performances do decrease value (even if you really don't value the regular season, a worse regular season performance -> likely a lower seed -> harder playoff route -> thus lower championship odds).
So, Question 1 is: how much worse were these players in the regular season, and how much value does this take away from them?
Question 2 is: does this regular season coasting enable their playoff improvements, and does that matter? There's an argument that much of the improvement comes from their improved experience. But you could also argue that, as these players get older and their motor wanes, they actually need to coast a bit to enable these higher-motor, higher-value, lofty playoff performances. If this is the case, then if these players were to try more in the regular season to limit their regular season disadvantage (e.g. if Lebron were to limit his 2016 regular season disadvantage vs 2009 or 2013, or if 77 Kareem were to limit his disadvantage vs 1974/1971 Kareem or 2000 Shaq), then they'd be losing the energy/motor to perform well in the playoffs and thus limit the advantage they have in the post season.

Thank you for your thoughtful answer. I wanted to concentrate on the two bolded portions and when I have time to Kareem’s section.

In the first Bolded, you mention about motor and younger players with a greater motor, and while someone like 2009 had an incredible motor, 2016 regular season LeBron had one of the most impressive regular season defensive synergy numbers by any player let alone a primary offense creator over the age of 30. If he were coasting, how would he generate these insane numbers?

Top 12% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 3% in defending hand offs
Top 16% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 15% in defending off of screens
Top 7% in defending in ISO
Top 27% in post up defense
Top 13% in spot up defense

This was LeBron at 31 and approaching 50,000 minutes. He was charged with being his team’s entire defensive system in addition to being the best scorer, creator, and often times, rim protector.

2016 LeBron. He should have been a defensive player of the year candidate while leading his team’s defense for at least 8-9 years in row, but wasn’t even considered.

ISO defense

LeBron: .59 points per possession (PPP), 93rd percentile
Draymond: .68, 85th percentile
Kawhi: .69 PPP, 83rd percentile

Pick and roll ball handler

Kawhi: .65 PPP, 90th percentile
LeBron: .66 PPP, 88th percentile
Draymond: .88, 71st percentile

Pick and roll roll man

Kawhi: .50 PPP, 98th percentile
LeBron: .70 PPP, 84th percentile
Draymond: .77 PPP, 75th percentile

Post defense

Draymond: .65 PPP, 89th percentile
LeBron: .77 PPP, 73rd percentile
Kawhi: .77 PPP, 71st percentile (numbers are rounded so James might have been at .772 and Kawhi at .768 or something)

Spot up defense

LeBron: .80 PPP, 87th percentile
Kawhi: .88 PPP, 75th percentile
Draymond: .91 PPP, 66th percentile

Off screens defense

Draymond: .45 PPP, 98th percentile
LeBron: .74PPP, 85th percentile
Kawhi: 1.05 PPP, 31st percentile

Hand offs defense

LeBron: .49 97th percentile
Kawhi: .72 PPP, 78th percentile
Draymond: .91 PPP, 43rd percentile

No data available for transition defense, defense on cuts, and defense on offensive rebound out backs. In his thirteenth season playing on a team that's otherwise not that good defensively, James quietly out together a great, great defensive season because he had to since his team really had maybe three other plus defenders. Unlike Kawhi and Draymond who were subpar in some categories, James was at worst in the 73rd percentile.

The argument, “well, LeBron didn’t match up against the opposition’s best scorers doesn’t really hold water because look at the overall FG% of Dray’s, Kawhi’s, and LeBron’s opposition.

Players Draymond defended: 45.5%
Players Kawhi defended: 44.8%
Players LeBron defunded: 44.7%

Draymond Green:

Overall: 39.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 45.5%, -6.1%
Threes: 29.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 34.6%, -5.1%
Twos: 42.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 49.2%, -6.3%
<6ft: 51.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 60.6%, -8.7%

Kawhi

Overall: 39.2 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 44.8%, -5.6%
Threes: 33.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 34.9, -1.2%
Twos: 41.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 48.8%, -7.2%
<6ft: 53.5 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 60.5%, -7.0%

LeBron:

Overall: 37.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 44.7%, -7.3%
Threes: 32.1 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 34.6%, -2.6%
Twos: 40.8 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 49.0%, -8.2%
<6ft: 48.6 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 59.9%, -11.3%

Some others:

PG13 2019

Top 5% in post up defense
Top 12% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 13% in defending in ISO
Top 19% in spot up defense
Top 23% in defending hand offs
Bottom 16% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Bottom 27% in defending off of screens

Kawhi 2019

Top 5% in defending hand offs
Top 5% in defending in ISO
Top 24% in spot up defense
Top 32% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
NO DATA (didn’t defend at least 10times) in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Bottom 44 in post up defense
Bottom 34% in defending off of screens

Kawhi 2020

Top 6% in spot up defense
Top 11% in defending in ISO
Top 17% in defending hand offs
Top 27% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 35% in defending off of screens
Bottom 29% in post up defense
Bottom 9% in defending the pick and roll man

Kawhi, 2016

Top 2% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 10% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 17% in defending in ISO
Top 22% in defending hand offs
Top 25% in spot up defense
Top 29% in post up defense
Bottom 31% in defending off of screens

Kawhi, 2017

Top 19% in post up defense
Top 28% in defending hand offs
Top 32% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 50% in defending off of screens
Bottom 45% in spot up defense
Bottom 44% in defending in ISO
Bottom 14% in defending the roll man in pick and roll

Giannis 2019

Top 30% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 44% in defending hand offs
Top 44% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Bottom 32% in defending off of screens
Top 17% in defending in ISO
Top 7% in post up defense
Top 23% in spot up defense

Giannis 2020

Top 2% in defending in ISO
Top 7% in post up defense
Top 12% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 17% in defending hand offs
Top 44%in spot up defense
Top 50% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Bottom 9% in defending off of screens

Draymond 2019

Top 15% in defending off of screens
Top 17% in post up defense
Top 25% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 29% in defending hand offs
Top 52% in defending in ISO
Bottom 38% in spot up defense
Bottom 33% in defending the pick and roll ball handler

Draymond, 2017

Top 11% in spot up defense
Top 14% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 15% in defending in ISO
Top 18% in post up defense
Top 31% in defending off of screens
Top 37% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 49% in defending hand offs

Siakam, 2019

Top 34% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 15% in defending hand offs
Top 10% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Bottom 35% in defending off of screens
Top 30% in defending in ISO
Top 19% in post up defense
Top 16% in spot up defense

Roberson, 2018

Top 16% in post up defense
Top 17% in spot up defense
Top 17% in defending hand off
Top 27% in defending off of screens
Top 34% in defending in ISO
Top 42% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Bottom 46% in defending the roll man in pick and roll

RoCo, 2018

Top 18% in defending in ISO
Top 34% in defending hand offs
Top 44% in spot up defense
Bottom 42% in defending off of screens
Bottom 49% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Bottom 14% in post up defense
Bottom 13% in defending the roll man in pick and roll


In the second bolded, I see what you’re saying but how do we know a suppposed coasting led to over-performance in the playoffs. David Griffin talk to little bit about the 2016 team in mentioned how they were not able to play the way they could in the playoffs because they didn’t have the defensive personnel to play at full throttle every game. Now, it could be said that well LeBron is part of that now playing the full throttle but when you look at his synergy stats, they show that he was going hard. That team was built specifically for the playoffs as Griffin mentioned knowing that a day off between every game at least allows them to gear up for an all out effort each game. I find it very difficult to believe that that bump in the 2016 playoffs had anything to do with any supposed coasting.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Some questions to ponder at this stage

Magic vs curry for "one way" offensive peaks: neither 87 magic nor 17 curry (temptative choices for both peaks) are particularly good on defense, both led a all time offense but magic arguably did it with less overall talent

For people bringing curry in their top 3 or top 5? What makes him better than magic?

And perhaps more hot take.....is he necesarilly better than peak nash? Nash also led a historical offense (multiple times) with no more offensive talent (arguably less) although his defense may be worse than curry?

I used to be pretty low on Curry's 2017 regular season but it's actually his best season by quite a margin by PI RAPM so combined with a very strong play-off run it's definitely a competitive peak. I think 87 Magic has slight edges in both the regular season and the play-offs but I'll probably have them really close.

Not being snarky I promise, but is that really the only metric that matters to you? How can anyone argue that 2016 wasn't his best regular season?

PI RAPM takes the whole season as far as I know, so it includes playoffs

When it comes to 2017 Curry is hard, because he was on SUCH a stacked team, but from a level of play perspective he’s up there

[falcolombardi]

A question to "backers" of all these players

Kareem: how close do you guys consider his peak defense compared to the likea of 93/94 hakeem, 67 wilt or 2003 duncan

He is no doubt the best scorer of the two but how do you evaluate his passing and rebounding impact vs wilt ?

2000 shaq how much do you "punish" being slpwed down by blazers in the defacto finals that season?

How much do you think his defensive effort remained consistent througg the playoffs?

Bill russel:how do you guys reconcile the offensive gap with other defense all timers (duncan, wilt hakeem) vs russel defense edge

How much better do you think russel was in defense that players like thurnond and wilt and how do you weight the fact his defensive impact would be reduced in any further era? Dpes it weight i your evaluation?

Wilt:how much credit do you give wilt for the 67 sixers offense vs the rest of the sixers roster and how high do you evaluate his defense compared to the likes of hakeem or duncan

Hakeem:how much defensive motor had he lost by the mid 90's?

How much credit do you give to hakeem for tge warriors great playoffs offense in their title runs and how much it was rockets spacing being ahead of its time and taking more 3's than anyone and hitting them unusually well

Duncan: how high do you compare his offense and defense to wilt and hakeem

Bird: do you think by the time he hit his offense peak in 86-87 he was still a impact defender?

Curry: how does he rank in comparision to magic and russel, other "1-way" peaks that arguably had more inpressive results in that end that curry warriors

Magic: how high do you have his offense to bridge the apparent defensive gap against peak bird?

[TheGOATRises007]

Been dealing with some annoying abdominal pain, so I can't make it too detailed.

1. Lebron James 2017

I've gone back and forth like 5 times writing this out, but I'll stick with LeBron 2017. I still feel like there's more of a mastery to his game here than in 2009 despite 2009 grading out better in impact metrics and LeBron still put up an incredible performance in the finals. I'm not going to knock his defense that much when he led the greatest playoff offense of all-time and he made mincemeat of the Celtics and Raptors in the EC. I'm fully confident that LeBron's game peaked during his 2nd Cleveland stint, so I ended up going with the 2017 version over 2016 simply, because I think he got better as an offensive player/exuded far more mastery/confidence and I think his defense sliding a bit was down to team circumstances and not him getting worse per-say. I think the context of the team is important and I think that applies to his defense in 2017. The entire team declined on defense and I'm not going to punish LeBron for not anchoring the whole organization in that regard when it's impossible.

I fully believe LeBron had the 2nd highest peak, so all my honorable mentions are his other seasons that will likely garner votes.

HM: LeBron 2009, LeBron 2013, LeBron 2016

2. Shaquille O'Neal 2000

I've seen the posts on Kareem vs Shaq. I ended up going with Shaq, because of the fact I just think he's more of a problematic mismatch offensively, which I know sounds silly because of Kareem's superior efficiency and his sky-hook. I just think Shaq's paint presence is larger and he's a general more dominant force in the paint and I think he'd circumnavigate throughout eras slightly better. But it's all nitpicking at this point. I have no qualms if anyone picks Kareem over Shaq in terms of peak. And I went back and forth on it so many times. If I saw Kareem play live and witness that dominance 1st hand, I'd probably put him over Shaq.

HM: 77 Kareem

3. 2017 Stephen Curry

Doc's post on Curry in the other thread made me sway towards him.

When he gets going, he's the singular greatest offensive force in NBA history because of the sheer volume of threes. And I think his efficiency in the playoffs this season was nuts. I don't subscribe to the idea that KD helped Curry as much as Curry helped KD.

From Doc in that thread:

In 3 years, Curry played 168 games with KD, and 31 without.

In the 168 with KD, Curry had an on-court +/- of +15.7 and the Warriors had an SRS Pace of 66.3.
In the 31 without KD, Curry had an on-court +/- of +17.2 and the Warriors had an SRS Pace of 70.0.

I also think he's probably the most portable NBA player in history. I know some people don't like that argument, but I truly think he would fit seamlessly on a number of all-time great teams. Obviously, all-time players would also fit well, but I think Curry provides less of a headache to fit in and it's hard to ignore him spearheading the greatest modern dynasty in the NBA.

He is the Warriors' system.

HM: 87 Magic, 2003 Duncan, 67 Wilt, 64 Russell, 94 Hakeem.

[Dutchball97]

Some questions to ponder at this stage

Magic vs curry for "one way" offensive peaks: neither 87 magic nor 17 curry (temptative choices for both peaks) are particularly good on defense, both led a all time offense but magic arguably did it with less overall talent

For people bringing curry in their top 3 or top 5? What makes him better than magic?

And perhaps more hot take.....is he necesarilly better than peak nash? Nash also led a historical offense (multiple times) with no more offensive talent (arguably less) although his defense may be worse than curry?

I used to be pretty low on Curry's 2017 regular season but it's actually his best season by quite a margin by PI RAPM so combined with a very strong play-off run it's definitely a competitive peak. I think 87 Magic has slight edges in both the regular season and the play-offs but I'll probably have them really close.

Not being snarky I promise, but is that really the only metric that matters to you? How can anyone argue that 2016 wasn't his best regular season?

I already had 2017 at his peak before finding out his PI RAPM is off the charts for this season. No matter how perfect 2016's regular season was, I don't see how it can be Curry's peak when he had such a rough play-offs and especially finals. PI RAPM is a stat I do regard pretty highly so it gives a good reason to believe the 2017 regular season is better than the boxscore suggests and because of that probably not too far off 87 Magic.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Been dealing with some annoying abdominal pain, so I can't make it too detailed.

1. Lebron James 2017

I've gone back and forth like 5 times writing this out, but I'll stick with LeBron 2017. I still feel like there's more of a mastery to his game here than in 2009 despite 2009 grading out better in impact metrics and LeBron still put up an incredible performance in the finals. I'm not going to knock his defense that much when he led the greatest playoff offense of all-time and he made mincemeat of the Celtics and Raptors in the EC. I'm fully confident that LeBron's game peaked during his 2nd Cleveland stint, so I ended up going with the 2017 version over 2016 simply, because I think he got better as an offensive player/exuded far more mastery/confidence and I think his defense sliding a bit was down to team circumstances and not him getting worse per-say. I think the context of the team is important and I think that applies to his defense in 2017. The entire team declined on defense and I'm not going to punish LeBron for not anchoring the whole organization in that regard when it's impossible.

I fully believe LeBron had the 2nd highest peak, so all my honorable mentions are his other seasons that will likely garner votes.

HM: LeBron 2009, LeBron 2013, LeBron 2016

2. Shaquille O'Neal 2000

I've seen the posts on Kareem vs Shaq. I ended up going with Shaq, because of the fact I just think he's more of a problematic mismatch offensively, which I know sounds silly because of Kareem's superior efficiency and his sky-hook. I just think Shaq's paint presence is larger and he's a general more dominant force in the paint and I think he'd circumnavigate throughout eras slightly better. But it's all nitpicking at this point. I have no qualms if anyone picks Kareem over Shaq in terms of peak. And I went back and forth on it so many times. If I saw Kareem play live and witness that dominance 1st hand, I'd probably put him over Shaq.

HM: 77 Kareem

3. 2017 Stephen Curry

Doc's post on Curry in the other thread made me sway towards him.

When he gets going, he's the singular greatest offensive force in NBA history because of the sheer volume of threes. And I think his efficiency in the playoffs this season was nuts. I don't subscribe to the idea that KD helped Curry as much as Curry helped KD.

From Doc in that thread:

In 3 years, Curry played 168 games with KD, and 31 without.

In the 168 with KD, Curry had an on-court +/- of +15.7 and the Warriors had an SRS Pace of 66.3.
In the 31 without KD, Curry had an on-court +/- of +17.2 and the Warriors had an SRS Pace of 70.0.

I also think he's probably the most portable NBA player in history. I know some people don't like that argument, but I truly think he would fit seamlessly on a number of all-time great teams. Obviously, all-time players would also fit well, but I think Curry provides less of a headache to fit in and it's hard to ignore him spearheading the greatest modern dynasty in the NBA.

He is the Warriors' system.

HM: 87 Magic, 2003 Duncan, 67 Wilt, 64 Russell, 94 Hakeem.

I hope you feel better.

[ardee]

I still can't decide Wilt vs Hakeem vs Duncan for my fourth vote here.

Hakeem and Duncan had all-time carry jobs, while Wilt led an ATG team that rampaged to a title while outplaying his two best positional rivals along the way who were also arguably the two best defenders at that position ever.

All three were statistical monsters, though Wilt obviously had the pace advantage.

You have access to per 75 inflated stats right? Could you post them for '67 Wilt, '94 Hakeem and '03 Duncan?

[70sFan]

Kareem: how close do you guys consider his peak defense compared to the likea of 93/94 hakeem, 67 wilt or 2003 duncan

I find him clearly a tier below these two, but he was still all-time great defender with massive impact. The biggest difference is that 1977 Kareem didn't have the same motor these guys had (though it was still amazing). I guess early 1970s Kareem might be even closer.

He is no doubt the best scorer of the two but how do you evaluate his passing and rebounding impact vs wilt ?

I think he's clearly worse offensive rebounder (like vs Shaq), I find their passing similar with Kareem being more consistent and Wilt having higher highs.

2000 shaq how much do you "punish" being slpwed down by blazers in the defacto finals that season?

I don't hold it too much against him, he faced ridiculous amount of pressure from that defense. I have more concerns with his defense from that series.

How much do you think his defensive effort remained consistent througg the playoffs?

I think it didn't, which is why Lakers went from -5.9 in RS to +0.8 in PS.

Bill russel:how do you guys reconcile the offensive gap with other defense all timers (duncan, wilt hakeem) vs russel defense edge

I think for peaks Wilt, Hakeem and Duncan might peak high enough defensively that you could take them over him. With that being said, people should look at how good Russell was in 1962 and 1963 playoffs offensively and even in 1965 with different role I'd say he was clearly a key factor on that end.

How much better do you think russel was in defense that players like thurnond and wilt and how do you weight the fact his defensive impact would be reduced in any further era? Dpes it weight i your evaluation?

I think he was clearly better than Wilt or Thurmond and I value both extremely high. I don't care about time machine argument, because I think Russell would still have a higher defensive impact than someone like Hakeem in the 1990s.

Wilt:how much credit do you give wilt for the 67 sixers offense vs the rest of the sixers roster and how high do you evaluate his defense compared to the likes of hakeem or duncan

I think Wilt had more weaknesses than Hakeem or Duncan, but his insane rim protection and defensive rebounding made him just behind these two.

In terms of offense - it's a combination of both. It's a sure thing that Wilt was the key reason why Sixers were so good offensively, but Hannum's system was just as big for them, if not bigger. Wilt's two man work with Hal Greer looks certainly impressive on the tape.

Hakeem:how much defensive motor had he lost by the mid 90's?

I think he peaked defensively in 1989-91 period, but he didn't start slowing down until 1994. That's why I don't think 1993 is any worse defensively than earlier versions,

How much credit do you give to hakeem for tge warriors great playoffs offense in their title runs and how much it was rockets spacing being ahead of its time and taking more 3's than anyone and hitting them unusually well

Again, on one hand the Rockets did a tremendous job on building around Hakeem without having top tier talent. On the other though, that system wouldn't work with a weaker isolation scorer than Hakeem. His post up iso numbers are extremely impressive, far better than Shaq's and almost as good as Kareem's.

With that being said, I think that Hakeem's offense had clearly a lower ceilling than Kareem's, Shaq's or even Wilt's.

Duncan: how high do you compare his offense and defense to wilt and hakeem

I'd say he's probably the best defender and the worst offensive player, but it's very close comparison.

Bird: do you think by the time he hit his offense peak in 86-87 he was still a impact defender?

I think he was close to his best in 1986, but he regressed significantly in 1987.

Curry: how does he rank in comparision to magic and russel, other "1-way" peaks that arguably had more inpressive results in that end that curry warriors

I think he doesn't compare favorably in any other season than 2016 RS or 2017 (when he had absurdly stacked team, more so than Magic or Russell at any point).

Magic: how high do you have his offense to bridge the apparent defensive gap against peak bird?

I think the defensive gap is vastly overstated and Magic's offense was significantly more consistent and reliable. That's just my opinion though.

[70sFan]

I still can't decide Wilt vs Hakeem vs Duncan for my fourth vote here.

Hakeem and Duncan had all-time carry jobs, while Wilt led an ATG team that rampaged to a title while outplaying his two best positional rivals along the way who were also arguably the two best defenders at that position ever.

All three were statistical monsters, though Wilt obviously had the pace advantage.

You have access to per 75 inflated stats right? Could you post them for '67 Wilt, '94 Hakeem and '03 Duncan?

Sure:

1967 Wilt in RS: 8.0 BPM, 2.7 OBPM, 1.8 ScoreVal, 1.1 PlayVal, 17.7 pts/75 on +14.4 rTS%, 2.6 BoxCreation, 6.1 PassRat, +5.0 rORtg
1967 Wilt in PS: 8.1 BPM, 2.1 OBPM, 1.2 ScoreVal, 0.8 PlayVal, 15.5 pts/75 on +6.5 rTS%, 2.8 BoxCreation, 7.9 PassRat, +3.3 rORtg

1994 Hakeem in RS: 6.0 BPM, 2.1 OBPM, 1.1 ScoreVal, -0.2 PlayVal, 26.3 pts/75 on +3.7 rTS%, 4.7 BoxCreation, 4.2 PassRat, -0.4 rORtg
1994 Hakeem in PS: 8.0 BPM, 3.7 OBPM, 1.7 ScoreVal, 0.2 PlayVal, 28.7 pts/75 on +4.9 rTS%, 6.2 BoxCreation, 4.9 PassRat, +4.2 rORtg

2003 Duncan in RS: 6.3 BPM, 3.4 OBPM, 1.1 ScoreVal, 0.4 PlayVal, 25.1 pts/75 on +4.5 rTS%, 4.3 BoxCreation, 6.3 PassRat, +2.0 rORtg
2003 Duncan in PS: 8.7 BPM, 4.5 OBPM, 1.5 ScoreVal, 0.6 PlayVal, 24.8 pts/75 on +6.2 rTS%, 4.9 BoxCreation, 7.3 PassRat, +1.8 rORtg

[LA Bird]

Voting for this round will close in around 24 hours (Friday 9am ET)

The top 2 seasons are currently separated by only one vote so this could end up in a very close race.

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[Lou Fan]

One last plea for people to give Russ some love here. I see the notion that the two way peak guys have to go here and Russ is a full tier below these other peaks. First off, this notion is fundamentally flawed as it doesn't matter what side of the ball your value comes on +7/-1 is the same as +3/+3 and it ignores that Russ is a clear positive on offense. First off, he was a phenomenal offensive rebounder giving him some built in off ball value, but his outlier athleticism also made him an Elite transition attacker which allowed him to be one of the only superstars who was able to successfully raise his volume AND his efficiency in the playoffs. He also was able to function as a high post hub and had a lot of value as a passer.

Of course his big value comes on the defensive side where his impact is an outlier among the outliers. You can see my previous post for more details on that but I just want to note that during Russ's peak (62-65) the Celtics had their worst supporting casts of the whole dynasty. Sharman and Cousy were done and Heinsohn was wearing down. The media narrative was that the celtics dynasty was clearly coming to an end and there would be no champions. This was also before Russ got reinforcements from the next wave of guys, chiefly Hondo who didn't become an all star until 1966. These teams with less help for Russ were the best teams of the entire dynasty. They were lapping the league 15 wins above the second best team on the back of Russ's massive impact. I can see the case for some centers here but he needs to be taken more seriously.

[Dutchball97]

One last plea for people to give Russ some love here. I see the notion that the two way peak guys have to go here and Russ is a full tier below these other peaks. First off, this notion is fundamentally flawed as it doesn't matter what side of the ball your value comes on +7/-1 is the same as +3/+3 and it ignores that Russ is a clear positive on offense. First off, he was a phenomenal offensive rebounder giving him some built in off ball value, but his outlier athleticism also made him an Elite transition attacker which allowed him to be one of the only superstars who was able to successfully raise his volume AND his efficiency in the playoffs. He also was able to function as a high post hub and had a lot of value as a passer.

Of course his big value comes on the defensive side where his impact is an outlier among the outliers. You can see my previous post for more details on that but I just want to note that during Russ's peak (62-65) the Celtics had their worst supporting casts of the whole dynasty. Sharman and Cousy were done and Heinsohn was wearing down. The media narrative was that the celtics dynasty was clearly coming to an end and there would be no champions. This was also before Russ got reinforcements from the next wave of guys, chiefly Hondo who didn't become an all star until 1966. These teams with less help for Russ were the best teams of the entire dynasty. They were lapping the league 15 wins above the second best team on the back of Russ's massive impact. I can see the case for some centers here but he needs to be taken more seriously.

Most people seem to consider Russell having the better career but Wilt having the higher peak so I just can't see serious traction for Russell before Wilt makes it in. What might also hold him back a bit is not having a clear peak season. 1965 has the best combination of regular season and play-offs so it'll probably be my pick but 1964 with his peak defensive impact and 1962 with his best balance between offense and defense could end up being the chosen season for this list just as well.