RealGM

They're both signed to the same draft in the beginning of their career. How'd you choose?

Discuss

Simply looking at the first four years of their careers this would be Luka by a landslide. Luka has already made All-NBA 1st team three seasons in a row and was 4th, 6th and 5th in MVP voting, while also being more proven in the post-season.

The question is whether Luka can reach Kobe's peak level eventually since Kobe did take some big steps in the years right after.

I mean knowing how Kobe's career turned out makes it impossible for me to pass on him in favor of Luka. Obviously Luka off to an incredible start, stronger than Kobe's first 4 seasons, but I don't believe we can just assume Luka maintains this for another decade. Too many variables.

I just don't think there's anyway you could pick Luka, regardless of how great he's been his first 4 years, over a guy who had a top 10-15 career.

Without seeing at least a decade of Luka, the answer has to be Kobe. It's too early in Luka's career, too much random stuff could potentially go wrong for him, whereas we already saw the entirety of Kobe's career.

I don't think you can assume Kobe's career span out exactly the same in such scenario. Same uncertainty variables that apply for Luka also apply for Kobe.

You change something in history, everything changes. Butterfly effect.

If Luka continues at his current trajectory it’s him no question

Time Machine Scenario #1: Perhaps we should only compare Luka with Early Kobe?

Let's not forget that Luka has pro experience before the NBA.
14/15 (age 15) 3 games - this is nuts
15/16 (age 16) 43 games: 5/3/2 - this is half nuts
16/17 (age 17) 67 games: 8/5/4/1
17/18 (age 18) 61 games: 16/5/5/1
NBA 18/19 (age 19) 72 games, Starter: 21/8/6/1 (& ROY)

Kobe meanwhile...
Age 18: as a sub, 8/2/1/1. Gentleman Swept by Jazz in 2nd Round.
Age 19: as a sub, 15/3/3/1/1 (& AS). Swept by Jazz in Conference Finals.

So at this point in the timeline, it is either a clear Luka win, or a wash, however you want to weight these experiences.

~

Luka 20 (19/20) 29/9/9/1 (& 1st Team All-NBA, AS). Lose to Clippers in 1st Round.
Luka 21 (20/21) 28/8/9/1/1 (& 1st Team All-NBA, AS). Lose Game 7 to Clippers in 1st Round.
Luka 22 (21/22) 28/9/9/1/1 (& 1st Team All-NBA, AS). Gentleman Swept by Warriors in Conference Finals.

Kobe 20 (98/99) 20/4/4/1/1 (& 3rd Team All-NBA). Swept by Spurs in 2nd Round.
Kobe 21 (99/00) 23/5/5/2/1 (& 2nd Team All-NBA, All-Defense, AS). Championship over Pacers.
Kobe 22 (00/01) 29/4/5/2/1 (& 2nd Team All-NBA, All-Defense, AS). Championship over 76ers.

Is Prime Shaq better than Porzingis + Powell? Just double-checking.
Probably matters a bit regarding playoff runs, yeah?

Yeah so I'm going with Luka 24/7/365.
Kobe has the defense, the flash, and a glorious future, all true.
Both have an attitude.
One is clearly a Top 4 player in the league already.
The other was Top 10 at this point in the timeline.

~

Time Machine Scenario #2: Perhaps we should project Luka's trajectory to compare with the full Kobe career?

Nah, this sounds dumb, right?

~

Time Machine Scenario #3: Hey, how about we compare a few years of a wonderful young player with a Top 10 ATG's full career?!

Sounds pretty silly too, right?

~

Time Machine Scenario #4: Hey, let's set aside all the Real World History Stuff, and just isolate a bunch of advanced quantitative measures to do a comparison entirely outside of all meaningful context.

Yeah! Sounds fun!

Of course, those measures are incomplete in some cases, and poor at capturing Defense in general, and not so hot regarding teammates, but that shouldn't cause us any pause. Am I right?

Let's go!!

Luka

Anything could happen with health, but yeah, I still am going Luka.

Is my team in LA?

Both had great offensive impact, but Kobe gives me defense. Luke is a liability on D. Kobe's 01 run at 22 was more impressive than Luka's 2022 playoff run

Given the poll, I think people are taking sort of a risk here taking Luka due to 3-4 great seasons.

Right now the answer is Kobe but Luka has the potential to pass him in the future.

No-more-rings wrote:Given the poll, I think people are taking sort of a risk here taking Luka due to 3-4 great seasons.

3-4 great seasons when he's been in the league 3-4 years doesn't sound like much of a risk..

Luka started playing professionally as a 15, 16 yo?

Luka's got at least a 2 to 3 years head start on Kobe, age per age comparison

Kobe didn't hit his stride until year 3 of his NBA career

People dont understnad that what you as a casual NBA fan view as Lukas debut was just him coming over from a complete, professional basketball development and career including having the key role on the biggest stage, the international championships. You cant fairly compare his first NBA years to Kobe's. Its also not fair and helpful towards LUka to expect him to keep improving at the same pace.

LesGrossman wrote:People dont understnad that what you as a casual NBA fan view as Lukas debut was just him coming over from a complete, professional basketball development and career including having the key role on the biggest stage, the international championships. You cant fairly compare his first NBA years to Kobe's. Its also not fair and helpful towards LUka to expect him to keep improving at the same pace.

I hope folks saw my post earlier in this thread, where I have all the basic data.

Do people just tend to read the OP and reply?
So that all the substantive longer answers in the middle of a thread pretty much just get skipped over?
Note to self! lol

Luka by a mile.

Talent pretty close, Luka much further along at the same age.

LesGrossman wrote:People dont understnad that what you as a casual NBA fan view as Lukas debut was just him coming over from a complete, professional basketball development and career including having the key role on the biggest stage, the international championships. You cant fairly compare his first NBA years to Kobe's. Its also not fair and helpful towards LUka to expect him to keep improving at the same pace.

Not sure if people dont understand so much as dont care. FIBA and the NBA are not the same, so performance in one isnt necessarily salient to the other.

tsherkin wrote:

LesGrossman wrote:People dont understnad that what you as a casual NBA fan view as Lukas debut was just him coming over from a complete, professional basketball development and career including having the key role on the biggest stage, the international championships. You cant fairly compare his first NBA years to Kobe's. Its also not fair and helpful towards LUka to expect him to keep improving at the same pace.

Not sure if people dont understand so much as dont care. FIBA and the NBA are not the same, so performance in one isnt necessarily salient to the other.

I don't want this to come out wrong... but... I can't imagine anybody who has ever played basketball at a high level (D1, G-League, other equivalents, etc.) would agree with that statement. They are all simply gradations of each other, with some rule tweaks, and cultural quirks (regarding management, roles, etc,). There is an incredible distribution of amazing basketball talent worldwide, for decades now. To the un-trained eye, there is hardly a perceptible difference between (let's estimate) the Top 1% that get drafted, and the Next Top 4% who might continue their play overseas, into really solid leagues. It's usually easy to spot the stars (well, except for those bozo teams that passed on Luka, and back in the day Steph). And on the assumption that most rotation players were potential stars whose development came up a bit short, then the real question is the boundary between the Role Players, Bench Guys, and all the International Basketball (veterans) around the world. Those distinctions are minor.

Don't make me say something really silly like how there a bunch of international leagues now that are playing at a higher level than the NBA was up through the 1970s, and (except for the top teams) even the 1980s too.