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Offense only (assume playing in 2022) - who would you rather have?

Per 75 possessions (to neutralize across different possession per game/scoring contexts):

Embiid 21'-22': 33.9/13.0/4.6 on +5.0 rTS%

Malone: 96-97: 30.0/10.8/4.9 on +6.4% rTS%

Of course, there are several ATG seasons for Malone; I simply picked 96-97 (somewhat) at random.

Embiid is far more dominant, with 14 40/10 games this year. Karl Malone's best was 8 in 89'-90'.

Malone lasted forever, AND never really got hurt. Embiid is always missing a ton of games.

It's kinda hard to pick against the player that's actually playing in 2022 and is one of the most effective offensive players in the league even tho I believe Malone's offense was definitely more valuable relative to era. Maybe Malone's passing still gives him an edge(he might also be a better scorer IRL but that's harder to say for the modern NBA), i'd prolly default to Embiid in this NBA.

I'd like to see Embiid with elite playmaker for the full season before making a clear statement, but I would probably go with Malone for now. Despite Karl struggles in postseason, he anchored a lot of elite offenses that usually were resilient in the playoffs. His passing game was tiers ahead of what Embiid can do and Joel's scoring game isn't the most resilient either.

ty 4191 wrote:Per 75 possessions (to neutralize across different possession per game/scoring contexts):

Embiid 21'-22': 33.9/13.0/4.6 on +5.0 rTS%

Malone: 96-97: 30.0/10.8/4.9 on +6.4% rTS%

I'd also note that Embiid averaged 3.5 tov/75 possessions, vs 3.1 for Malone. AND Malone averaged somewhat more minutes (so---at same pace---he'd affect MORE possessions per game than Embiid).

ty 4191 wrote:Of course, there are several ATG seasons for Malone; I simply picked 96-97 (somewhat) at random.

Embiid is far more dominant, with 14 40/10 games this year. Karl Malone's best was 8 in 89'-90'.

I don't know......this could easily be an indication that Embiid's production is more erratic (e.g. roller coaster: lots of highs and lows; whereas Malone's is more steady [during the rs]). Did you look at the converse (e.g. games <20 pts or something)?

EDIT: I also wonder if it's the 10 reb threshold that's holding Malone's "dominant" game number down??? Except for the offensive kind, though, rebounds have little to do with offense (fwiw, Malone averaged about 2.6 oreb/75, vs 2.4/75 for Embiid).

ty 4191 wrote:Malone lasted forever, AND never really got hurt. Embiid is always missing a ton of games.

Very true. This is the best season Embiid's had to date on that front, and he still missed 14 rs games and 2 playoff games.

Malone didn't miss 14 games [rs and playoffs COMBINED] in his first 18 seasons COMBINED.

I think I'd go with the guy I knew would be out there day in and day out. Per possession, their impact is similar with Embiid having a slight edge for his shooting range possibly, but Malone's minutes and never missing games mean that you may choose downgrade Embiid for those missing days averaging it out with a typical backup center. In that case, Malone has a clear edge.

If you're just transporting Malone to 2022, it's gotta be Embiid. Where does Malone even play? He's too small to play the 5, but it's gonna be pretty hard to be effective as a 4 not spacing to the 3-point line in 2022. He'd only work next to a stretch 5 and even then it would be hard to work Malone's game into a modern offense since there's so much high post stuff.

Now if they were to both come up in the modern game from college age, that's a different story. Embiid's still a slightly better offensive player at peak, but Malone's durability would make him more valuable overall. Give me a 75% chance of Embiid being available for any given game vs. 95% for the Mailman and Malone has to be the pick.

Malone as a modern 5 is worth discussing in and of itself; on defense, for what he lacked in verticality, he had strength in spades. On offense I don't personally foresee any shortcomings if played at center

Embiid posted 109 TS+ | 169.0 TS Add this season.

Mailman had TEN seasons where he posted over 109 TS+ | 169.0 TS Add, with a peak of 117 TS+ | 362.8 TS Add in 1989-90.

Maybe Joel is marginally better per possession, but Karl gives you a thousand minutes of extra possessions.

I don't have any concerns with Malone adjusting for modern league. I can see him working both as a PF and as a center.

A huge chunk of Embiid's scoring comes from offense. In the heart of his prime from 88-99 Malone averaged 13.1 FT/100. Embiid averages 14.9/100 for his career, and last year he averaged 17.4.

If Malone played in this era of soft calls and flopping his FTA would have definitely been higher.

iggymcfrack wrote:If you're just transporting Malone to 2022, it's gotta be Embiid. Where does Malone even play? He's too small to play the 5, but it's gonna be pretty hard to be effective as a 4 not spacing to the 3-point line in 2022. He'd only work next to a stretch 5 and even then it would be hard to work Malone's game into a modern offense since there's so much high post stuff.

Where does Zion even play? He's too small to play the 5, but it's gonna be pretty hard to be effective as a 4 not spacing to the 3-point line in 2022. He'd only work next to a stretch 5 and even then it would be hard to work Zion's game into a modern offense since there's so much high post stuff blah blah blah words words

reality: 27 ppg on gazillion TS%

iggymcfrack wrote:If you're just transporting Malone to 2022, it's gotta be Embiid. Where does Malone even play? He's too small to play the 5, but it's gonna be pretty hard to be effective as a 4 not spacing to the 3-point line in 2022. He'd only work next to a stretch 5 and even then it would be hard to work Malone's game into a modern offense since there's so much high post stuff.

Now if they were to both come up in the modern game from college age, that's a different story. Embiid's still a slightly better offensive player at peak, but Malone's durability would make him more valuable overall. Give me a 75% chance of Embiid being available for any given game vs. 95% for the Mailman and Malone has to be the pick.

Malone would be a bit short for a center, but overall size not really. Karl was around probably 255-260 for a lot of his prime. That’s probably actually a bit heavier than the average center today. As for how he’d adjust for being able to shoot 3s, we can’t really know for sure.

I feel for peak this is probably Embiid though. He seems like a more versatile and potent scoring force when it comes to the playoffs. Between 2020 and 2021 he averaged 28.6 ppg on 62.2 ts%. Small sample, but I just feel when he’s healthy he is probably more of a problem for opposing defenses. When he start looking beyond peak, Embiid is too injury prone and seemingly a bit unmotivated at times.

70sFan wrote:I'd like to see Embiid with elite playmaker for the full season before making a clear statement, but I would probably go with Malone for now. Despite Karl struggles in postseason, he anchored a lot of elite offenses that usually were resilient in the playoffs. His passing game was tiers ahead of what Embiid can do and Joel's scoring game isn't the most resilient either.

Was Malone the anchor of those offenses or was it Stockton?

No-more-rings wrote:

70sFan wrote:I'd like to see Embiid with elite playmaker for the full season before making a clear statement, but I would probably go with Malone for now. Despite Karl struggles in postseason, he anchored a lot of elite offenses that usually were resilient in the playoffs. His passing game was tiers ahead of what Embiid can do and Joel's scoring game isn't the most resilient either.

Was Malone the anchor of those offenses or was it Stockton?

I'd say that Stockton was more important for Jazz offense at the beginning of their journey, but by mid-90s Malone was their clear offensive anchor.

No-more-rings wrote:I feel for peak this is probably Embiid though. He seems like a more versatile and potent scoring force when it comes to the playoffs. Between 2020 and 2021 he averaged 28.6 ppg on 62.2 ts%. Small sample, but I just feel when he’s healthy he is probably more of a problem for opposing defenses.

That 20 to 21 sample for Embiid comprises 15 games split over two postseasons.

Malone posted 29.1 PPG on .618 TS% over 16 games during the 1992 postseason.

Even by the cherry-picked-small-postseason-sample method Embiid doesn't come out clearly on top of Malone.

SickMother wrote:

No-more-rings wrote:I feel for peak this is probably Embiid though. He seems like a more versatile and potent scoring force when it comes to the playoffs. Between 2020 and 2021 he averaged 28.6 ppg on 62.2 ts%. Small sample, but I just feel when he’s healthy he is probably more of a problem for opposing defenses.

That 20 to 21 sample for Embiid comprises 15 games split over two postseasons.

Malone posted 29.1 PPG on .618 TS% over 16 games during the 1992 postseason.

Even by the cherry-picked-small-postseason-sample method Embiid doesn't come out clearly on top of Malone.

But that's what Embiid was as a player. Malone sustaining that was very outlier for him. If Embiid fails to reach that again it's because of his health, not his playstyle.

uberhikari wrote:A huge chunk of Embiid's scoring comes from offense. In the heart of his prime from 88-99 Malone averaged 13.1 FT/100. Embiid averages 14.9/100 for his career, and last year he averaged 17.4.

If Malone played in this era of soft calls and flopping his FTA would have definitely been higher.

Embiid plays in the era with the lowest Free throw rate in NBA history though he himself gets plenty of calls.

homecourtloss wrote:

uberhikari wrote:A huge chunk of Embiid's scoring comes from offense. In the heart of his prime from 88-99 Malone averaged 13.1 FT/100. Embiid averages 14.9/100 for his career, and last year he averaged 17.4.

If Malone played in this era of soft calls and flopping his FTA would have definitely been higher.

Embiid plays in the era with the lowest Free throw rate in NBA history though he himself gets plenty of calls.

I'm not going to take a stand one way or another but free throw rate isn't conclusive evidence that fouls aren't called tighter now

No-more-rings wrote:

SickMother wrote:

No-more-rings wrote:I feel for peak this is probably Embiid though. He seems like a more versatile and potent scoring force when it comes to the playoffs. Between 2020 and 2021 he averaged 28.6 ppg on 62.2 ts%. Small sample, but I just feel when he’s healthy he is probably more of a problem for opposing defenses.

That 20 to 21 sample for Embiid comprises 15 games split over two postseasons.

Malone posted 29.1 PPG on .618 TS% over 16 games during the 1992 postseason.

Even by the cherry-picked-small-postseason-sample method Embiid doesn't come out clearly on top of Malone.

But that's what Embiid was as a player. Malone sustaining that was very outlier for him. If Embiid fails to reach that again it's because of his health, not his playstyle.

No doubt. We know how Karl's entire career played out & that 1992 postseason was surely an outlier from an efficiency standpoint.

We don't know how the rest of Embiid's career will play out though. I agree that if healthy his offense is likely to end up being more playoff resilient than Mailman's was, but that's two assumptions already with the "if healthy" being particularly onerous. His increasing reliance on free throws in his shot profile is a red flag for future playoff success as well.

This postseason his PER and WS/48 crashed hard, too. Granted they include more than just offense, but there are already indicators that Joel's game might not be the most playoff resilient moving forward.