RealGM

List of starters:


Was he a top 15 defensive center? Top 10?

dcstanley wrote:List of starters:

Spoiler:

ATL: Capela
BOS: Williams
BKN: Claxton/Drummond
CHA: Plumlee
CHI: Vucevic
CLE: Allen
DET: Stewart
IND: Turner
MIA: Bam
MIL: Lopez
NYK: Robinson
ORL: Bamba
PHI: Embiid
TOR: Precious
WAS: Gafford/Porzingis

DAL: Powell/Kleber
GSW: Looney
HOU: Wood/Theis
LAC: Zubac
LAL: Howard
MEM: Adams
MIN: KAT
NOLA: Valanciunas
OKC: Favors
PHX: Ayton
POR: Nurkic
SAC: Holmes/Sabonis
SAS: Poetl
UTA: Gobert

Was he a top 15 defensive center? Top 10?

Somewhere around 13-15th.

dcstanley wrote:List of starters:

Spoiler:

ATL: Capela
BOS: Williams
BKN: Claxton/Drummond
CHA: Plumlee
CHI: Vucevic
CLE: Allen
DET: Stewart
IND: Turner
MIA: Bam
MIL: Lopez
NYK: Robinson
ORL: Bamba
PHI: Embiid
TOR: Precious
WAS: Gafford/Porzingis

DAL: Powell/Kleber
GSW: Looney
HOU: Wood/Theis
LAC: Zubac
LAL: Howard
MEM: Adams
MIN: KAT
NOLA: Valanciunas
OKC: Favors
PHX: Ayton
POR: Nurkic
SAC: Holmes/Sabonis
SAS: Poetl
UTA: Gobert

Was he a top 15 defensive center? Top 10?

Probably 5-10 in the RS

Playoffs is hard, with how bad they performed with him on the court + it being a worrying trend, probably bottom 10, otoh most non switchy centers struggle in certain matchups anyways

Probably middle of the pack.

Agree with the rest, probably around 13th spot.

Note to self: RGM thinks DWS is bogus.

4.5 Nikola Jokić DEN
4.3 Rudy Gobert UTA
4.1 Joel Embiid PHI
3.9 Robert Williams BOS
3.8 Al Horford BOS
3.5 Bam Adebayo MIA
3.2 Kevon Looney GSW
3.2 Mitchell Robinson NYK
3.2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
3.2 Nikola Vučević CHI
3.1 Deandre Ayton PHO
3.1 Andre Drummond TOT
3.0 Steven Adams MEM
3.0 Jarrett Allen CLE
2.9 Ivica Zubac LAC
2.7 Mo Bamba ORL
2.7 Clint Capela ATL
2.7 Jonas Valančiūnas NOP
2.6 JaVale McGee PHO
2.6 Bobby Portis MIL
2.5 Jakob Poeltl SAS
2.4 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
2.3 Hassan Whiteside UTA
2.2 Isaiah Hartenstein LAC
2.2 Dwight Powell DAL
2.1 Precious Achiuwa TOR
2.1 Nemanja Bjelica GSW
2.0 Anthony Davis LAL
2.0 Dewayne Dedmon MIA
2.0 Mason Plumlee CHO
2.0 Christian Wood HOU
1.8 Domantas Sabonis TOT
1.8 Isaiah Stewart DET
1.7 Jusuf Nurkić POR
1.6 Daniel Gafford WAS
1.6 Naz Reid MIN
1.4 Chimezie Metu SAC
1.4 Myles Turner IND
1.4 Omer Yurtseven MIA
1.3 DeMarcus Cousins TOT
1.3 Jaxson Hayes NOP
1.3 Dwight Howard LAL
1.3 Alperen Şengün HOU
1.2 Nic Claxton BRK
1.2 Taj Gibson NYK
1.2 Jeff Green DEN
1.2 Montrezl Harrell TOT
1.1 Khem Birch TOR
1.1 Drew Eubanks TOT
1.1 Serge Ibaka TOT
1.1 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
1.0 LaMarcus Aldridge BRK
1.0 DeAndre Jordan TOT
1.0 Nerlens Noel NYK
1.0 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl OKC
1.0 Daniel Theis TOT
1.0 Moritz Wagner ORL
0.9 Bismack Biyombo PHO
0.9 Willy Hernangómez NOP
etc.

Ginoboleee wrote:Note to self: RGM thinks DWS is bogus.

4.5 Nikola Jokić DEN
4.3 Rudy Gobert UTA
4.1 Joel Embiid PHI
3.9 Robert Williams BOS
3.8 Al Horford BOS
3.5 Bam Adebayo MIA
3.2 Kevon Looney GSW
3.2 Mitchell Robinson NYK
3.2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
3.2 Nikola Vučević CHI
3.1 Deandre Ayton PHO
3.1 Andre Drummond TOT
3.0 Steven Adams MEM
3.0 Jarrett Allen CLE
2.9 Ivica Zubac LAC
2.7 Mo Bamba ORL
2.7 Clint Capela ATL
2.7 Jonas Valančiūnas NOP
2.6 JaVale McGee PHO
2.6 Bobby Portis MIL
2.5 Jakob Poeltl SAS
2.4 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
2.3 Hassan Whiteside UTA
2.2 Isaiah Hartenstein LAC
2.2 Dwight Powell DAL
2.1 Precious Achiuwa TOR
2.1 Nemanja Bjelica GSW
2.0 Anthony Davis LAL
2.0 Dewayne Dedmon MIA
2.0 Mason Plumlee CHO
2.0 Christian Wood HOU
1.8 Domantas Sabonis TOT
1.8 Isaiah Stewart DET
1.7 Jusuf Nurkić POR
1.6 Daniel Gafford WAS
1.6 Naz Reid MIN
1.4 Chimezie Metu SAC
1.4 Myles Turner IND
1.4 Omer Yurtseven MIA
1.3 DeMarcus Cousins TOT
1.3 Jaxson Hayes NOP
1.3 Dwight Howard LAL
1.3 Alperen Şengün HOU
1.2 Nic Claxton BRK
1.2 Taj Gibson NYK
1.2 Jeff Green DEN
1.2 Montrezl Harrell TOT
1.1 Khem Birch TOR
1.1 Drew Eubanks TOT
1.1 Serge Ibaka TOT
1.1 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
1.0 LaMarcus Aldridge BRK
1.0 DeAndre Jordan TOT
1.0 Nerlens Noel NYK
1.0 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl OKC
1.0 Daniel Theis TOT
1.0 Moritz Wagner ORL
0.9 Bismack Biyombo PHO
0.9 Willy Hernangómez NOP
etc.

PER, Win shares, suck pretty bad among other stuff

Most attempted catch all box score metrics without any sort of impact component are gonna be trash

RAPTOR sucks too

Hi MyUniBroDavis.
Thanks for the feedback/guidance.
I always knew WS looked weird to my all-important-eye-test.

But PER is just as bad?
That I did not know.
(Though in this case, even I knew it wasn't very relevant to the thread.)

Impact component means starting to incorporate the +/- stuff in more sophisticated ways, right?

Ginoboleee wrote:Hi MyUniBroDavis.
Thanks for the feedback/guidance.
I always knew WS looked weird to my all-important-eye-test.

But PER is just as bad?
That I did not know.
(Though in this case, even I knew it wasn't very relevant to the thread.)

Impact component means starting to incorporate the +/- stuff in more sophisticated ways, right?

So I think most stats are useful in general since a catch all stat that measures how good someone is in my opinion isn’t really a thing, even impact related metrics are (aside from on off which is just raw on off) an estimation

PER for me isn’t useful at all since it’s basically an arbitrary valuation of how impressive a box score line is (relative to the league? I’m not sure about this one).

A 32 PER player is gonna usually be better than a 10 PER player, but that’s like saying a guy that averages 30-10-10 is better than a guy averaging 3-1-1.

Each one should be used as a piece of a part of a puzzle when evaluating a player, and stats themselves only form one piece of it, there’s film analysis and then there’s understanding role fit and deployment, stats aren’t necessarily more or less important than the less but they’re the easiest to access and the biases are going to be a lot less apparent in interpreting objective statistical data vs watching a game and trying to formulate an opinion from that a year later, now if you watch it multiple times to analyze a player I probably value that more, but even then there are things that are hard to catch with the naked eye unless you understand scheme and deployment and stuff like that pretty well

Defense in terms of a “catch all metric” it’s not as good as offense imo because even in impact metrics there’s far more noise in defense than offense in my opinion usually, but a box score based measurement of objective defensive goodness is pretty garbage

RAPTOR is garbage too

Smack bang 14th

Just above Precious Because it's literally a wildcard of if he's going to do some amazing defensive play or some absolute bonehead play. So I'ld take Jokics ok defense over that gamble

MyUniBroDavis wrote:RAPTOR is garbage too

Ok, good to know - this one looks fancy though!

He are the Centers' Defensive Overall Raptor (and minutes played).

(Theis looks high - oof - he just got punched again - no call, as usual.)

6.8 Rudy Gobert Jazz C 2317
6.1 Nikola Jokic Nuggets C 2647
4.2 Joel Embiid 76ers C 2682
4.1 Jarrett Allen Cavaliers C 1809
3.8 Bam Adebayo Heat C 2439
3.7 Al Horford Celtics PF, C 2820
3.4 Jusuf Nurkic Trail Blazers C 1579
3.0 Robert Williams III Celtics C 2198
2.5 Myles Turner Pacers C 1235
2.5 Giannis Antetokounmpo Bucks SF, PF, C 2652
2.4 Andre Drummond Nets C 1497
2.4 Jakob Poeltl Spurs C 1970
2.4 Mitchell Robinson Knicks C 1848
2.4 Kevon Looney Warriors PF, C 2180
2.3 Hassan Whiteside Jazz C 1227
2.3 Jaren Jackson Jr. Grizzlies PF, C 2458
2.3 Domantas Sabonis Kings PF, C 2136
2.3 P.J. Tucker Heat SF, PF, C 2490
2.1 Clint Capela Hawks C 2082
1.8 JaVale McGee Suns C 1305
1.7 Nemanja Bjelica Warriors PF, C 1292
1.7 Brandon Clarke Grizzlies PF, C 1542
1.6 Evan Mobley Cavaliers C 2331
1.6 Nikola Vucevic Bulls C 2599
1.6 Bobby Portis Bucks PF, C 2326
1.5 Isaiah Hartenstein Clippers C 1216
1.4 Wendell Carter Jr. Magic C 1852
1.1 Deandre Ayton Suns C 2110
0.9 Mason Plumlee Hornets C 1793
0.9 Chris Boucher Raptors PF, C 1820
0.8 Isaiah Stewart Pistons C 1816
0.7 Dewayne Dedmon Heat C 1203
0.7 Naz Reid Timberwolves C 1269
0.7 Daniel Theis Celtics C 1177
0.7 Ivica Zubac Clippers C 1852
0.7 John Collins Hawks PF, C 1785
0.6 Mo Bamba Magic C 1824
0.6 Kristaps Porzingis Wizards PF, C 1481
0.5 Steven Adams Grizzlies C 2113
0.5 Montrezl Harrell Hornets C 1641
0.5 Jonas Valanciunas Pelicans C 2415

70sFan wrote:Agree with the rest, probably around 13th spot.

Which impact metrics are you basing this on?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nikola-jokic-bolstered-his-mvp-case-with-his-defense/

He was 5th in ESPN's defensive real plus minus.

ty 4191 wrote:

70sFan wrote:Agree with the rest, probably around 13th spot.

Which impact metrics are you basing this on?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nikola-jokic-bolstered-his-mvp-case-with-his-defense/

He was 5th in ESPN's defensive real plus minus.

Hey brother, thanks for the hot tip!

This time I included Triple-J and Unibrow for fun (and added games played too).

8.0 Rudy Gobert UTAH 66
7.7 Clint Capela ATL 74
6.9 Al Horford BOS 69
6.8 Kevon Looney GS 82
6.6 Nikola Jokic DEN 74
6.3 Evan Mobley CLE 69
6.2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 78
5.7 Robert Williams III BOS 61
5.6 Bam Adebayo MIA 56
5.5 Joel Embiid PHI 68
5.4 Ivica Zubac LAC 76
5.1 Mason Plumlee CHA 73
5.0 Mitchell Robinson NY 72
4.6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 73
4.5 Jarrett Allen CLE 56
4.5 Isaiah Stewart DET 71
4.4 Steven Adams MEM 76
4.3 Jonas Valanciunas NO 74
4.2 Jusuf Nurkic POR 56
4.2 Deandre Ayton PHX 58
4.0 Mo Bamba ORL 71
4.0 Dwight Powell DAL 82
3.3 Kristaps Porzingis DAL/WSH 51
3.3 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 62
3.2 Myles Turner IND 42
2.5 Jakob Poeltl SA 68
2.4 Andre Drummond PHI/BKN 73
2.1 Anthony Davis LAL 40

MyUniBroDavis wrote:PER, Win shares, suck pretty bad among other stuff

Most attempted catch all box score metrics without any sort of impact component are gonna be trash

RAPTOR sucks too

What are the specific impact metrics you use, to assess defense? And, why?

ty 4191 wrote:

MyUniBroDavis wrote:PER, Win shares, suck pretty bad among other stuff

Most attempted catch all box score metrics without any sort of impact component are gonna be trash

RAPTOR sucks too

What are the specific impact metrics you use, to assess defense? And, why?

The thread's Intern is ready for his next assignment!

Ginoboleee wrote:

ty 4191 wrote:

MyUniBroDavis wrote:PER, Win shares, suck pretty bad among other stuff

Most attempted catch all box score metrics without any sort of impact component are gonna be trash

RAPTOR sucks too

What are the specific impact metrics you use, to assess defense? And, why?

The thread's Intern is ready for his next assignment!

ESPN rpm changed their formula so it’s no longer public and it’s honestly in the same category as raptor even if it’s not that bad, it’s still pretty bad.

It’s not as if you can point to a stat and say X is a definitive ranking, luck adjusted RAPM is usually something I like in context, even if the luck adjustment can be questionable at times, but Jokic’s issue is that his defense has been all time bad for 3 playoff runs in a row more than his regular season defense, and then of course there’s just evaluating a players skillset, I made a post on it in the peaks project but yeah there’s an argument for jokic as a pretty great regular season defender but the issues are with him being targetable in playoff matchups. Raw on-off data used in context, just actually knowing how they play etc etc

I think had jokic played in a different era this may be a non issue, and it’s not that the teams should be expected to be a good defense with him per say, but his 2020-2022 defense by most metrics have been a positive throughout, while his playoff defense otoh based on everything seems to be closer to unplayably bad in that span.

While it’s fair to say that maybe he changes that trend, it would be one thing if that was just the Warriors series, but this has been like the third year in a row where it’s been a clear issue

If you tell me player X is an all time great RS defender, the bill russell of his time, and then reverts to a league average defender in the playoffs, that’s a 60th percentile defender ish to me. If Gobert was genuinely exposed in certain matchups I’d lower him a crazy amount (he’s good in any matchup just his impact can be lowered a lot). Likewise the other way around also applies, which is why I still think guys like giannis, embiid, Dray and healthy AD are the best among defenders in the league probably

MyUniBroDavis wrote:yeah there’s an argument for jokic as a pretty great regular season defender but the issues are with him being targetable in playoff matchups.

This makes all kinds of good sense.
I guess that points yet again to the subtle interpretive gaps between the RS and playoffs, and the tradeoffs inherent to focusing on one over the other.
Thanks as always for helping me start to get caught up!

MyUniBroDavis wrote:

Ginoboleee wrote:

ty 4191 wrote:
What are the specific impact metrics you use, to assess defense? And, why?

The thread's Intern is ready for his next assignment!

ESPN rpm changed their formula so it’s no longer public and it’s honestly in the same category as raptor even if it’s not that bad, it’s still pretty bad.

It’s not as if you can point to a stat and say X is a definitive ranking, luck adjusted RAPM is usually something I like in context, even if the luck adjustment can be questionable at times, but Jokic’s issue is that his defense has been all time bad for 3 playoff runs in a row more than his regular season defense, and then of course there’s just evaluating a players skillset, I made a post on it in the peaks project but yeah there’s an argument for jokic as a pretty great regular season defender but the issues are with him being targetable in playoff matchups. Raw on-off data used in context, just actually knowing how they play etc etc

I think had jokic played in a different era this may be a non issue, and it’s not that the teams should be expected to be a good defense with him per say, but his 2020-2022 defense by most metrics have been a positive throughout, while his playoff defense otoh based on everything seems to be closer to unplayably bad in that span.

While it’s fair to say that maybe he changes that trend, it would be one thing if that was just the Warriors series, but this has been like the third year in a row where it’s been a clear issue

If you tell me player X is an all time great RS defender, the bill russell of his time, and then reverts to a league average defender in the playoffs, that’s a 60th percentile defender ish to me. If Gobert was genuinely exposed in certain matchups I’d lower him a crazy amount (he’s good in any matchup just his impact can be lowered a lot). Likewise the other way around also applies, which is why I still think guys like giannis, embiid, Dray and healthy AD are the best among defenders in the league probably

You said he has been bad defensively 3rd year in the row. Can you explain your opinion in: Utah series, Clipps series, Lakers series 3 years ago, and Portland series 2 years ago.

BelgradeNugget wrote:

MyUniBroDavis wrote:

Ginoboleee wrote:
The thread's Intern is ready for his next assignment!

ESPN rpm changed their formula so it’s no longer public and it’s honestly in the same category as raptor even if it’s not that bad, it’s still pretty bad.

It’s not as if you can point to a stat and say X is a definitive ranking, luck adjusted RAPM is usually something I like in context, even if the luck adjustment can be questionable at times, but Jokic’s issue is that his defense has been all time bad for 3 playoff runs in a row more than his regular season defense, and then of course there’s just evaluating a players skillset, I made a post on it in the peaks project but yeah there’s an argument for jokic as a pretty great regular season defender but the issues are with him being targetable in playoff matchups. Raw on-off data used in context, just actually knowing how they play etc etc

I think had jokic played in a different era this may be a non issue, and it’s not that the teams should be expected to be a good defense with him per say, but his 2020-2022 defense by most metrics have been a positive throughout, while his playoff defense otoh based on everything seems to be closer to unplayably bad in that span.

While it’s fair to say that maybe he changes that trend, it would be one thing if that was just the Warriors series, but this has been like the third year in a row where it’s been a clear issue

If you tell me player X is an all time great RS defender, the bill russell of his time, and then reverts to a league average defender in the playoffs, that’s a 60th percentile defender ish to me. If Gobert was genuinely exposed in certain matchups I’d lower him a crazy amount (he’s good in any matchup just his impact can be lowered a lot). Likewise the other way around also applies, which is why I still think guys like giannis, embiid, Dray and healthy AD are the best among defenders in the league probably

You said he has been bad defensively 3rd year in the row. Can you explain your opinion in: Utah series, Clipps series, Lakers series 3 years ago, and Portland series 2 years ago.

Am I missing something? The only time Denver didn't underperform defensively was in LAC series, but it's not like they shut down Clippers offense either. Jazz, Lakers and Portland all destroyed Nuggets defense.

ty 4191 wrote:

70sFan wrote:Agree with the rest, probably around 13th spot.

Which impact metrics are you basing this on?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nikola-jokic-bolstered-his-mvp-case-with-his-defense/

He was 5th in ESPN's defensive real plus minus.

Usually, I look at different types of plus/minus data, but most of them are not available for 2022 yet (as far as I know).

I'm aware of Jokic's nice finish in ESPN DRPM. I can't see their formula unfortunately, but based on results it's not horrible. The problem with Jokic is that eye test, tracking data and playoffs PM data all agree that his defense is exploitable in a way most top centers aren't. Jokic had by far his best defensive season in 2022, but before calling him elite defender, I'd like to see him doing at least reasonably well in the playoffs. He faced unfavorable matchup this year, but previous years don't give him much better view either.

Either way, I always rely on eye test the most when I try to evaluate defense. Jokic has some excellent tools on that end, but he's very limited because he's bad rim protector and has slow feet, which is horrible combination for postseason environment. I can say that he's probably inside top 10 for RS, but in absolute terms he's likely around average.