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How do they compare offensively? Who's had the more diverse game and more offensively dominant? Who has had less help winning a chip?

D-Rob in 99 alone is better than all MIL squad...

instinctively I would say Giannis, but Timmy is a bit of an anomaly. His RS offensive marks (aside from a couple seasons) don't look jaw-drapping, but on necessity he could take advantage of his higher gear in the PS (quite resilient regardless of opposition's style)

SpreeS wrote:D-Rob in 99 alone is better than all MIL squad...

Peak Duncan didn't play with 1999 Robinson.

70sFan wrote:

SpreeS wrote:D-Rob in 99 alone is better than all MIL squad...

Peak Duncan didn't play with 1999 Robinson.

No one talks about peak. Duncan could be one of the most luckiest player in NBA history. Started career with D-Rob, finished with Kawhi and whole career played with Pop, Ginobili and Parker.

SpreeS wrote:

70sFan wrote:

SpreeS wrote:D-Rob in 99 alone is better than all MIL squad...

Peak Duncan didn't play with 1999 Robinson.

No one talks about peak. Duncan could be one of the most luckiest player in NBA history. Started career with D-Rob, finished with Kawhi and whole career played with Pop, Ginobili and Parker.

You are posting in a thread called "Offensive peak: Giannis vs Duncan".

70sFan wrote:

SpreeS wrote:

70sFan wrote:Peak Duncan didn't play with 1999 Robinson.

No one talks about peak. Duncan could be one of the most luckiest player in NBA history. Started career with D-Rob, finished with Kawhi and whole career played with Pop, Ginobili and Parker.

You are posting in a thread called "Offensive peak: Giannis vs Duncan".

sorry, missed it.

In this case Duncan had way less help with old D-Rob or young Parker/Manu

I don’t know what Duncan’s case would really be here. Giannis is a better scorer and passer.

SpreeS wrote:D-Rob in 99 alone is better than all MIL squad...

Giannis included.

As far as the offense comparison I’d go Giannis slightly. Different teams would make me favor one over the other.

I think at this point in Giannis’ career I can honestly say Duncan is clearly better prime for prime.

Giannis better in transition and lob threat, Duncan better at going to work in the half-court.


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I'm a Timmy guy, but don't see how this isn't Giannis quite clearly.

Based on actual production and output, there's just no question Giannis is better.

Maybe there's an argument that Giannis' offense is context-dependent in a way that Timmy's offense isn't, specifically the perimeter-driving foul-drawing stuff which depends on getting a friendly whistle and which juices his efficiency and serves as a fallback against stout interior team defenses that otherwise represent a major problem for him. That's really the only potential case I can see for Duncan here.

I think in terms of the playoffs it's a more valid comparison especially with the era disparity. I think that Giannis in the last 2 years is probably a bit better but it's close.

Texas Chuck wrote:I'm a Timmy guy, but don't see how this isn't Giannis quite clearly.

2003 duncan created quite a lot of easy shots for teammates and had resilient high volume scoring

I dont see it as clear cut at all

Do people have any resilience concerns for Giannis?

in 2019 playoffs: Massive drop in scoring (-2.2 pts/75 drop, -6.8% rTS efficiency drop)
in 2020 playoffs: Drop in scoring (-2.2 pts/75 drop, -1.4% rTS efficiency drop)
in 2021 playoffs: Drop in scoring (-0.5 pts/75 drop, -3.3% rTS efficiency drop)
in 2022 playoffs: Massive drop in scoring (-1.3 pts/75 drop, -6.8% rTS efficiency drop)

Now, this is of course an oversimplification that ignores context. Giannis did have injuries at the end of a few playoff series for example. But it still concerns me that Giannis' postseason scoring consistently declines after his best regular seasons in 2019 and 2020, even if we just look at playoff games where he was healthy. This persisted in the early 2021 playoffs, and even after he supposedly "figured it out" for the last two playoff series, he went right back to dropping in 2022 (and this decline persists even if we account for the opponent's defensive rating).

I worry we're overrating Giannis' offense solely because of a memorable Finals, while forgetting... most of his other playoff performances. He's often had extreme declines against "build a wall" defenses and league-leading defenses. The best counterargument might be something akin to Bird or Curry or LeBron's resilience argument, where we say his scoring declines but he makes up for it in creation / gravity / off-ball play. But I'm not sure the eye test supports that (at least mine doesn't -- though I might have a particular bias against some of the head-scratching decisions he made earlier on... those early shot-clock 3s make me want to pull my hair out ).

And I will say team performance does correlate with this poor (offensive) resilience. Take the 2019 and 2020 regular season: the Bucks had fantastic margin of victory numbers, but they over performed against bad teams and underperformed against good teams (relative to other all-time teams).

Compare this to Duncan, who might be starting from a lower point in regular season offensive value, but he's pretty perfect at least from a resilience standpoint. Thoughts? Perhaps Duncan's resilience advantage isn't enough to make up for the fact that Giannis is just starting from a higher regular season place to begin with?

DraymondGold wrote:Do people have any resilience concerns for Giannis?

in 2019 playoffs: Massive drop in scoring (-2.2 pts/75 drop, -6.8% rTS efficiency drop)
in 2020 playoffs: Drop in scoring (-2.2 pts/75 drop, -1.4% rTS efficiency drop)
in 2021 playoffs: Drop in scoring (-0.5 pts/75 drop, -3.3% rTS efficiency drop)
in 2022 playoffs: Massive drop in scoring (-1.3 pts/75 drop, -6.8% rTS efficiency drop)

Now, this is of course an oversimplification that ignores context. Giannis did have injuries at the end of a few playoff series for example. But it still concerns me that Giannis' postseason scoring consistently declines after his best regular seasons in 2019 and 2020, even if we just look at playoff games where he was healthy. This persisted in the early 2021 playoffs, and even after he supposedly "figured it out" for the last two playoff series, he went right back to dropping in 2022 (and this decline persists even if we account for the opponent's defensive rating).

I worry we're overrating Giannis' offense solely because of a memorable Finals, while forgetting... most of his other playoff performances. He's often had extreme declines against "build a wall" defenses and league-leading defenses. The best counterargument might be something akin to Bird or Curry or LeBron's resilience argument, where we say his scoring declines but he makes up for it in creation / gravity / off-ball play. But I'm not sure the eye test supports that (at least mine doesn't -- though I might have a particular bias against some of the head-scratching decisions he made earlier on... those early shot-clock 3s make me want to pull my hair out ).

And I will say team performance does correlate with this poor (offensive) resilience. Take the 2019 and 2020 regular season: the Bucks had fantastic margin of victory numbers, but they over performed against bad teams and underperformed against good teams (relative to other all-time teams).

Compare this to Duncan, who might be starting from a lower point in regular season offensive value, but he's pretty perfect at least from a resilience standpoint. Thoughts? Perhaps Duncan's resilience advantage isn't enough to make up for the fact that Giannis is just starting from a higher regular season place to begin with?

Do you have the same data from duncan circa 2002-2005 to compare with? 2002 and 2003 specially?

falcolombardi wrote:

DraymondGold wrote:Do people have any resilience concerns for Giannis?

in 2019 playoffs: Massive drop in scoring (-2.2 pts/75 drop, -6.8% rTS efficiency drop)
in 2020 playoffs: Drop in scoring (-2.2 pts/75 drop, -1.4% rTS efficiency drop)
in 2021 playoffs: Drop in scoring (-0.5 pts/75 drop, -3.3% rTS efficiency drop)
in 2022 playoffs: Massive drop in scoring (-1.3 pts/75 drop, -6.8% rTS efficiency drop)

Now, this is of course an oversimplification that ignores context. Giannis did have injuries at the end of a few playoff series for example. But it still concerns me that Giannis' postseason scoring consistently declines after his best regular seasons in 2019 and 2020, even if we just look at playoff games where he was healthy. This persisted in the early 2021 playoffs, and even after he supposedly "figured it out" for the last two playoff series, he went right back to dropping in 2022 (and this decline persists even if we account for the opponent's defensive rating).

I worry we're overrating Giannis' offense solely because of a memorable Finals, while forgetting... most of his other playoff performances. He's often had extreme declines against "build a wall" defenses and league-leading defenses. The best counterargument might be something akin to Bird or Curry or LeBron's resilience argument, where we say his scoring declines but he makes up for it in creation / gravity / off-ball play. But I'm not sure the eye test supports that (at least mine doesn't -- though I might have a particular bias against some of the head-scratching decisions he made earlier on... those early shot-clock 3s make me want to pull my hair out ).

And I will say team performance does correlate with this poor (offensive) resilience. Take the 2019 and 2020 regular season: the Bucks had fantastic margin of victory numbers, but they over performed against bad teams and underperformed against good teams (relative to other all-time teams).

Compare this to Duncan, who might be starting from a lower point in regular season offensive value, but he's pretty perfect at least from a resilience standpoint. Thoughts? Perhaps Duncan's resilience advantage isn't enough to make up for the fact that Giannis is just starting from a higher regular season place to begin with?

Do you have the same data from duncan circa 2002-2005 to compare with? 2002 and 2003 specially?

Yeah I suppose that's the next logical question, I was just lazy haha

Duncan:
in 2002 playoffs: boost in scoring (+2.6 pts/75 boost, 1.9% rTS boost)
in 2003 playoffs: small boost in scoring (-0.3 pts/75 drop, +1.7% rTS boost)
in 2004 playoffs: similar scoring (-2 pts/74 drop, +2.7% rTS boost)

Comparing the two, Duncan does indeed have the advantage in scoring resilience. In just playoff scoring, Giannis has the volume advantage in the playoffs, Duncan has the efficiency edge. And of course this ignores all other parts of offense (creation, off-ball play, spacing, screening, communication, rebounding, scalability, etc.)

falcolombardi wrote:

Texas Chuck wrote:I'm a Timmy guy, but don't see how this isn't Giannis quite clearly.

2003 duncan created quite a lot of easy shots for teammates and had resilient high volume scoring

I dont see it as clear cut at all

Giannis' scoring is quite a bit higher in terms of volume

DraymondGold wrote:Now, this is of course an oversimplification that ignores context. Giannis did have injuries at the end of a few playoff series for example. But it still concerns me that Giannis' postseason scoring consistently declines after his best regular seasons in 2019 and 2020, even if we just look at playoff games where he was healthy. This persisted in the early 2021 playoffs, and even after he supposedly "figured it out" for the last two playoff series, he went right back to dropping in 2022 (and this decline persists even if we account for the opponent's defensive rating).

I worry we're overrating Giannis' offense solely because of a memorable Finals, while forgetting... most of his other playoff performances. He's often had extreme declines against "build a wall" defenses and league-leading defenses. The best counterargument might be something akin to Bird or Curry or LeBron's resilience argument, where we say his scoring declines but he makes up for it in creation / gravity / off-ball play. But I'm not sure the eye test supports that (at least mine doesn't -- though I might have a particular bias against some of the head-scratching decisions he made earlier on... those early shot-clock 3s make me want to pull my hair out ).

Can you go into a little more detail on the decline persisting after accounting for opponent defensive rating?

IDK I just don't think Giannis' playoff performances over the last couple years have been generally bad as a whole. There's certainly been times when he's struggled, particularly the Miami series in 2020. But for instance, 2022 is a down year by these numbers but I generally feel that Giannis performed quite well as a scorer over the 2022 postseason. He had poor efficiency numbers for a few games in the Boston series, and Boston had a really great defense that was able to do the build-a-wall stuff that Giannis has struggled with at times in the past, but he still managed to put up strong scoring numbers over the series as a whole.

I guess I'd say, I agree that there are some limitations to Giannis' scoring game but I don't think it's really shown up as a major issue in the playoffs over the last 2 seasons.

DraymondGold wrote:Do people have any resilience concerns for Giannis?

in 2019 playoffs: Massive drop in scoring (-2.2 pts/75 drop, -6.8% rTS efficiency drop)
in 2020 playoffs: Drop in scoring (-2.2 pts/75 drop, -1.4% rTS efficiency drop)
in 2021 playoffs: Drop in scoring (-0.5 pts/75 drop, -3.3% rTS efficiency drop)
in 2022 playoffs: Massive drop in scoring (-1.3 pts/75 drop, -6.8% rTS efficiency drop)

Now, this is of course an oversimplification that ignores context. Giannis did have injuries at the end of a few playoff series for example. But it still concerns me that Giannis' postseason scoring consistently declines after his best regular seasons in 2019 and 2020, even if we just look at playoff games where he was healthy. This persisted in the early 2021 playoffs, and even after he supposedly "figured it out" for the last two playoff series, he went right back to dropping in 2022 (and this decline persists even if we account for the opponent's defensive rating).

I worry we're overrating Giannis' offense solely because of a memorable Finals, while forgetting... most of his other playoff performances. He's often had extreme declines against "build a wall" defenses and league-leading defenses. The best counterargument might be something akin to Bird or Curry or LeBron's resilience argument, where we say his scoring declines but he makes up for it in creation / gravity / off-ball play. But I'm not sure the eye test supports that (at least mine doesn't -- though I might have a particular bias against some of the head-scratching decisions he made earlier on... those early shot-clock 3s make me want to pull my hair out ).

And I will say team performance does correlate with this poor (offensive) resilience. Take the 2019 and 2020 regular season: the Bucks had fantastic margin of victory numbers, but they over performed against bad teams and underperformed against good teams (relative to other all-time teams).

Compare this to Duncan, who might be starting from a lower point in regular season offensive value, but he's pretty perfect at least from a resilience standpoint. Thoughts? Perhaps Duncan's resilience advantage isn't enough to make up for the fact that Giannis is just starting from a higher regular season place to begin with?

So giannis’s decline in the 2019 and 2020 playoffs was partially due to a build a wall style defense, but at the same time it’s not necessarily his fault, when youre primarily a slasher most of the time if they’re stunting on drives in a 5 out system it’s it’s not too hard to contest the drive and get back to your man when you kick it out unless you do it really early or all your teammates have an incredibly quick trigger

Post 2020 playoffs they switched their offense to a 4 out 1 in system, to create larger gaps for him to drive and kick out so stunts wouldn’t be as effective, and because of his size they could put jrue as the inside man because a guard helping on a giannis drive doesn’t do anything

2021 as a whole was pretty great I think. He had a poor first round scoring wise against Miami in the sense that he had a bad game 1 and couldn’t make anything from three, But was pretty incredibly outside of that, it’s hard to say it’s indicative when the main reason his TS fell was lower percentages from three and from the line

And I’m 2022 I feel that, that celtics team was hilariously equipped to guard him, especially with Middleton out.

I think we fall into the trap of using a teams relative def rtg to determine how difficult it was for someone to score on them, but for example it was clear that a player like Curry at least in some aspects had much less trouble than giannis because of both matchups and tactical decisions (dropping to stop the Warriors passing game and allowing him to take deep pullup threes, which obviously in hindsight was kinda dumb).

With giannis they weren’t just building a wall but they had a full rotation of utter giannis stoppers, the Celtics genuinely might have more than half of the guys in the league that are capable of guarding him.

That being said while it wasn’t his most effecient series considering the load he carried and the team almost looking like it was built specifically to stop him, I wouldn’t say it was particularly indicative of anything other than a bad matchup, which exists for almost everyone

Of the 6 series they’ve played since, the only series where there is a sense of giannis is struggling to score is the Celtics series, which I feel is pretty fair considering how well equipped they were to stop him.

I think effeciency concerns would be warranted if it was like 2019, where there’s a sense that giannis is struggling to score, which is a bit valid in the 2022 series against the Celtics, this wasn’t really what happened in 2021, which basically is if his effeciency or volume inside the arc went down because that’s the majority of his game

If it’s just him shooting poorly from the ft line or from three, that’s something you can take into account for evaluating that run soecifically but I don’t think it matters in the context of evaluating his play. I don’t have concerns for giannis in the playoffs anymore really, unless He’s facing teams that are really well built to stop him, which the Celtics are probably unique in history in that regard

In other regards, I don’t really think giannis is limited as a playmaker anymore, maybe he doesn’t find the pass as early as lebron but that’s about it, and his off ball play is pretty darn good when they go to it, but it’s obviously not gonna be as effective since turning him into a damion Jones isn’t ideal

Doctor MJ wrote:Giannis better in transition and lob threat, Duncan better at going to work in the half-court.


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This is conventional wisdom, but I’m not too sure. Giannis has been quite effective in the half court due to his ability to draw fouls. In fact, he’s been more effective as an offense creator on the ball relative to the league than in transition. 43% of his possessions came in ISO/Post up/Ball screen actions. About 28% of his possessions came in transition. As a ball handler cresting offense, he has been absolutely elite.

Play type Points per Possession (PPP)

Ball screen ball handler
2022: 70th percentile
2021: 90th percentile
2020: 94th percentile
2019: 97th percentile

ISO
2022: 67th percentile
2021: 85th percentile
2020: 58th percentile
2019: 68th percentile

Post up
2022: 70th percentile
2021: 45th percentile
2020: 52nd percentile
2019: 63rd percentile

[b]Transition[b]
2022: 53rd percentile
2021: 75th percentile
2020: 55th percentile
2019: 56th percentile

As a roll man, he’s only had 7%, 6%, 5%, 5% of his possessions being this player with good results but surprisingly not as effective real-time to the league as an in ball offense creator (85th, 60th, 66th, 94th).