NBA Top 125: Seth Partnow's Tiers

[dontcalltimeout]

Seth Partnow of The Athletic, completed his tiers! What do you like? What trends do you? What do you disagree with?

The original introduction to the project: https://theathletic.com/2059944/2020/10/23/nba-player-rankings-the-top-125-nba-players-the-athletic-player-tiers-tier-5-from-aaron-gordon-to-tyler-herro/?redirected=1

Across a variety of metrics, over a long period of NBA history, I’ve found that there are a relatively set number of players who perform at various levels in any given season.

Around five players per season perform at a “supermax” level, worth 35 percent of a team’s salary cap or more, as well as significantly add to a team’s championship equity.
Another 10-15 perform at a “veteran max” level, worth 30 percent or more of the cap.
A further 20-25 players perform at a level justifying a “rookie max” at 25 percent of the cap or higher.
Between 30-35 produce at around 20 percent of the cap.
Another 50 to 75 provide some additional championship equity on top of their “everyday” production, but only a minor amount.

Tier 1 : The Franchise guys

Spoiler:

Tier 2: All-NBA

Spoiler:

Tier 3: All-Stars and All-Star Consideration

Spoiler:

Tier 4: Top Starters / Key Reserve (this is the ceiling for "role players")

Spoiler:

Tier 5: High Rotation

Spoiler:

[falcolombardi]

Not sure why kawhi seems to be evaluated in his 2021 version when he has not played in a year but davis doesnt get to be evaluated on his last healthy season

[dontcalltimeout]

Not sure why kawhi seems to be evaluated in his 2021 version when he has not played in a year but davis doesnt get to be evaluated on his last healthy season

I think both guys dropped a sub tier - Kawhi from 1B to 1C and Davis from 2A to 2B

[Colbinii]

Solid list.

[yoyoboy]

I have Garland better than pretty much all of the Tier 3 guys. Not sure what figures he’s taking into account if he thinks Mobley and him for example were on the same level. Mobley showed a lot of potential for a rookie but in terms of actual value on the court, they weren’t close.

[RCM88x]

I don't think KD should be in Tier 1A, 1B or 1C feels more appropriate.

AD's placement feels a little high to me too.

[sp6r=underrated]

Not sure why kawhi seems to be evaluated in his 2021 version when he has not played in a year but davis doesnt get to be evaluated on his last healthy season

Anthony Davis's last healthy season was 2020.

[falcolombardi]

Not sure why kawhi seems to be evaluated in his 2021 version when he has not played in a year but davis doesnt get to be evaluated on his last healthy season

Anthony Davis's last healthy season was 2020.

Sure but he has played much more recently than kawhi who has not played a official game in 400+ days

Kawhi health is honestly a bigger question mark

[Cavsfansince84]

I'm sorry but I think this list is pretty bad. At some point you have to factor in decline for players that have shown it over a 1-2 year sample while dealing with both injuries and advanced age when they cross the 32-33 mark. Harden and CP3 as top 15 guys for next season simply does not compute for me nor does KD as a top 4 player and Kawhi as top 7. I feel like the whole point of these lists is just pointless clickbait tbh. None of these guys bring anything new in terms of evaluation and how they come to their rankings.

[LukaTheGOAT]

If we base Kawhi off what we last saw of him him, he's too low but I get the skepticism. If you want to consider KD top 4 and believe he just ran in to a bad matchup with the Celtics, I get it although I don't think certain guys behind him would get as limited by any matchup really. Also I wouldn't have Steph in Giannis and Jokic's tier but that is me.

The list is fine but as with every decently long list, people will disagree.

[Doctor MJ]

I'm going to assert my objection to the use of "Franchise Player" as a synonym for "the very best players".

Kevin Durant is one of the very best players, at this point it's clear, he's not a franchise player, because you'd be a fool to build your franchise around his caprice.

[Colbinii]

I'm sorry but I think this list is pretty bad. At some point you have to factor in decline for players that have shown it over a 1-2 year sample while dealing with both injuries and advanced age when they cross the 32-33 mark. Harden and CP3 as top 15 guys for next season simply does not compute for me nor does KD as a top 4 player and Kawhi as top 7. I feel like the whole point of these lists is just pointless clickbait tbh. None of these guys bring anything new in terms of evaluation and how they come to their rankings.

In order, players were considered from the standpoint of value to a top 10-ish team looking to contend for a title next season and are contract-agnostic. Thus the tiers are not intended to reflect “asset values” of players, and age is only considered as far as the likelihood of sizable improvement or rapid decline heading into next year.

[Colbinii]

I'm going to assert my objection to the use of "Franchise Player" as a synonym for "the very best players".

Kevin Durant is one of the very best players, at this point it's clear, he's not a franchise player, because you'd be a fool to build your franchise around his caprice.

From what I had gathered from the articles, this is solely for next year.

In order, players were considered from the standpoint of value to a top 10-ish team looking to contend for a title next season and are contract-agnostic. Thus the tiers are not intended to reflect “asset values” of players, and age is only considered as far as the likelihood of sizable improvement or rapid decline heading into next year.

I interpreted this is if I could somehow acquire a certain player or players based on value in a vacuum, this is how they would be separated by the author.

[Doctor MJ]

I'm going to assert my objection to the use of "Franchise Player" as a synonym for "the very best players".

Kevin Durant is one of the very best players, at this point it's clear, he's not a franchise player, because you'd be a fool to build your franchise around his caprice.

From what I had gathered from the articles, this is solely for next year.

In order, players were considered from the standpoint of value to a top 10-ish team looking to contend for a title next season and are contract-agnostic. Thus the tiers are not intended to reflect “asset values” of players, and age is only considered as far as the likelihood of sizable improvement or rapid decline heading into next year.

I interpreted this is if I could somehow acquire a certain player or players based on value in a vacuum, this is how they would be separated by the author.

I'm sure, but that's all the more reason why the Franchise Player name isn't the best.

Not a big deal though, just a pet peeve of mine.

[sp6r=underrated]

I'm going to assert my objection to the use of "Franchise Player" as a synonym for "the very best players".

Kevin Durant is one of the very best players, at this point it's clear, he's not a franchise player, because you'd be a fool to build your franchise around his caprice.

So this is OT but let's go with terms that annoy us. I'll go with small markets.

I've seen the following teams called small-market: Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks, Toronto Raptors. Instead I really wish we used Alpha Markets (NYC/LA), Large Mid Market, Small Mid Markets and true small markets. It is granular but accurate.

But I'll always be irritated when I read people write small market and then the team listed is the Washington Wizards. I also get chronically irritated when the Heat is listed as a team with the same advantage the Lakers have over the Hawks.

Hawks have no one to blame but themselves, to pick on Atlanta, for Miami being the first choice of people wanting to play in the south. They are very similar tier cities for appeal.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

I don't have any issue with this list, just some tweeks in the subtiers but nathong major.

___
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[Ryoga Hibiki]

I'm going to assert my objection to the use of "Franchise Player" as a synonym for "the very best players".

Kevin Durant is one of the very best players, at this point it's clear, he's not a franchise player, because you'd be a fool to build your franchise around his caprice.

So this is OT but let's go with terms that annoy us. I'll go with small markets.

I've seen the following teams called small-market: Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks, Toronto Raptors. Instead I really wish we used Alpha Markets (NYC/LA), Large Mid Market, Small Mid Markets and true small markets. It is granular but accurate.

But I'll always be irritated when I read people write small market and then the team listed is the Washington Wizards. I also get chronically irritated when the Heat is listed as a team with the same advantage the Lakers have over the Hawks.

Hawks have no one to blame but themselves, to pick on Atlanta, for Miami being the first choice of people wanting to play in the south. They are very similar tier cities for appeal.

the size of the market is not really the thing, there.
there are destination markets, that can attract top FAs.
mid level markets, that can retain their own but not attract new ones.
low level markets, that will likely lose their own FAs unless everything goes perfect and they find the right kind of star that is not interested to leave (Timmeh, Giannis, Jokic...)

Miami is not a big market but is in the first list, for instance.

___
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[sp6r=underrated]

I'm going to assert my objection to the use of "Franchise Player" as a synonym for "the very best players".

Kevin Durant is one of the very best players, at this point it's clear, he's not a franchise player, because you'd be a fool to build your franchise around his caprice.

So this is OT but let's go with terms that annoy us. I'll go with small markets.

I've seen the following teams called small-market: Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks, Toronto Raptors. Instead I really wish we used Alpha Markets (NYC/LA), Large Mid Market, Small Mid Markets and true small markets. It is granular but accurate.

But I'll always be irritated when I read people write small market and then the team listed is the Washington Wizards. I also get chronically irritated when the Heat is listed as a team with the same advantage the Lakers have over the Hawks.

Hawks have no one to blame but themselves, to pick on Atlanta, for Miami being the first choice of people wanting to play in the south. They are very similar tier cities for appeal.

the size of the market is not really the thing, there.
there are destination markets, that can attract top FAs.
mid level markets, that can retain their own but not attract new ones.
low level markets, that will likely lose their own FAs unless everything goes perfect and they find the right kind of star that is not interested to leave (Timmeh, Giannis, Jokic...)

Miami is not a big market but is in the first list, for instance.

___
Sent from my Nokia 3210 using RealGM mobile app

People confuse outcomes with opportunities. Miami attractiveness to free agents over say Chicago or Atlanta is product of being a better run team. Reinsdorf is so cheap he broke up a team that won title 3 years in a row. Atlanta has never been a particularly smart franchise. If a guy like Reinsdorf owned the Heat over Arison no one would talk about Miami being a destination franchise.

And there is no reason for Miami to be considered on the tier with NY/LA rather than the large mid market tier with Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix, Washington, Boston, etc.

[Clyde Frazier]

I respect Seth's opinion for the most part but he really gets hung up on role player on a good team vs more talented player with bigger role on a lesser team. He got into an argument on twitter over Ingram vs Finney Smith. Called Ingram inefficient and I almost wonder if he just didn’t look it up. Ingram posted 58/58/55% TS last 3 seasons and 58% TS in the playoffs.

He then went on to say Ingram wouldn't be able to fit next to a duo like Giannis/Middleton. Seems like completely unfounded criticism to me when he fit fine with CJ whose role in NOLA is very ball dominant. Jonas got a ton of touches in that offense too. Yeah I’m getting very specific here but it was an overarching trend in his tiers.

[Peregrine01]

Kawhi has no business being on the 2022 list given that he hasn't played in over a year. I feel like he gets a ton of benefit of the doubt of what he can be in the playoffs rather than what he actually is as a player who routinely misses half the season.