trex_8063 wrote:Owly wrote:SHAQ32 wrote:
Career production.
Yes. As stated in the quote it depends what you value. If one is agreement that only '97 is significantly above average, it might not take many seasons of a Sabonis ('96: 24.7 PER peak, 4 years above 20; .233 WS/48, 5 years above .200; 6.7 BPM, 4 years above 4) ...
Something that REALLY needs to be included/considered [imo]----and which is often over-looked----when comparing rate metrics is playing time: Sabonis had the 24.7 PER peak while averaging 23.8 mpg; Gill had the 19.6 PER peak while averaging 39.0 mpg.
That's pretty relevant. A difference in >15 mpg extra [likely] means Gill was playing while fatigued more often than Sabonis, and/or playing while "coasting" [to
avoid fatigue when big minutes are expected of you] more than Sabonis. That's going to effect one's rate metrics.
The degree to which one can be aggressive may be sporadically limited for high-minute players too (as they perhaps occasionally must dial it down to avoid foul-trouble).
Since I've mentioned fouls, it's worth noting that '96 Sabonis averaged >4.7 fouls/39 minutes. That would translate to a number of games where he
wouldn't be able to reach ~39 minutes, because he'd foul out BEFORE that point. Even if fatigue were NOT a factor, he'd likely have to dial back his aggressiveness [from what he actually did in '96] if expected to play 39.0 mpg as Gill did in '97......and that would likely effect his rate metrics.
Also, from a basic "measure of impact" standpoint: a guy who is performing at '96 Sabonis level for 23.8 mpg might not be impacting THE FULL GAME as much as someone playing at Gill's level for 39.0 mpg (even if he is out-doing the Gill-level on a per-minute basis).
Obviously, whoever subs in for them will have some manner of impact too (and the potential for imprint of said substitution is bigger in Sabonsis's case).......whether that's a good or a bad thing I suppose depends upon the quality of the sub. If we assume for simplicity that the sub is net-neutral (or at least net-neutral relative to the opponent's subs), then we can practically ignore this consideration.
Can't do the detailed response I would want to now. Heat and hand pain.
In short
1) Fwiw, IRL as noted above Gill hard arguably better backups in Seattle thus keeping him on may have been harmful. Sabonis also had very strong backup. Dudley slightly below average (but solid for backup) 97-14 but playing with Sabonis probably hurt that a little and '93 Dudley WoWY showed signs of huge impact. Fwiw, '97 Gill backup depends how you read positional designations on an unstable roster.
2) I lean more heavily on valuing role players but ...
yeah Gill was rarely significantly different from average. He's never driving title equity only supporting it. A player of Sabonis's caliber could be a needle mover.
3) I suspect, without close study that serious title contention teams mostly don't have bad rotation players. Does Sabas put a bit more onus on getting a good alternate/backup 5. Yes although ...
4) Sabonis played very well at 35.4 mpg in the playoffs - albeit over just 5 games. Medium term he upped his minutes in those high quality years to 27,1 mpg for the first 4 years, peaking at 32 and bar '98 that highest season, he played more in the playoffs.
Portland were cautious. Rightly so. Sabonis has evidence of being a fairly massive needle mover (97-14 RAPM 3.46, 23rd).
5) The point was primarily about Gill. I could point to Armstrong. Or Camby. Kukoc, Maxwell, Strickland, Nene, Maxwell, D Harper, A Miller, Marshall, Smith, Odom, Bradley, Pressey ... None peak as high, but we can talk careers of all shapes and sizes. Players that really separated themselves from circa average have a much, much quicker route to championship equity.
6) Gill as "coasting" doesn't at first glance hold up to scrutiny. '95 he doesn't play 30mpg doesn't always start and has an ordinary, perhaps slightly down year. Other factors could of course be at play.
None of what you say seems in principle to be wrong/objectionable and is worth bearing in mind but in this instance it ignores the elephant in the room. Sabonis was a very good, perhaps great player who moved the needle. Gill was an ordinary player who kept things ordinary. There's value to the latter. There's considerably more to the former.