1. 2017 Curry (1b 2016 Curry)
2. 2004 Kevin Garnett
3. 1994 David Robinson (3b 1995 Robinson)Also considering for this tier: Kobe, KD, Walton, West, Oscar, possibly Jokic, possibly Giannis. For this tier after Curry, I'm certainly open to changing my order, but currently KG and David Robinson seem to be the best by the data. Garnett vs Robinson is interesting... both are All-Time Defensive 1st Options and a perfect Offensive 1b Option/2nd Option. Both also had terrible fitting teams at their peak, which could bias the data against them. Most people favor KG over Robinson (including some nice comments about 2 threads ago), but I'd like to revisit this comparison and how they stack up against other players in this tier (e.g. Kobe/Oscar/West/Giannis/Jokic) soon. I'll edit in deeper statistical details at some point.
1. Reasoning for Curry:It’s a bit disheartening to have the same player on my ballot since Greatest Peak thread #2 and to be voting for him at the top of my ballot since thread #6 and not see much change.
Some of the arguments I’ve raised are:
1. The data we have are in near-consensus, favoring Curry over all the players being mentioned (and some of the peaks already voted in)
2. Play-by-play film analysis shows that his playmaking is almost GOAT-tier, indicating why people may be underrating his playmaking, and shows that his defense is positive
3. Team-building analysis favors Curry, who’s boosted by his GOAT-level scalability
4. Comparative Era arguments favor Curry, who’s playing in an era with a greater talent pool and better strategy than ever before
5. Time-machine arguments favor Curry, who fits just as well as anyone in the current era
6. Qualitative arguments also have Curry’s leadership among the greatest ever
I’ve also tried to address every concern everyone has mentioned:
7. I’ve addressed the concern that Curry’s teammates and abnormally-good fit enabled his perceived success (Curry’s teammates benefited from him far more than the reverse)
8. I’ve addressed the concern that the defensive gap against Curry is greater that the offensive advantage in favor of Curry (as far as I can tell, it just isn’t)
9. I’ve addressed concerns that Curry’s less well rounded than everyone else in this tier (simply not true)
10. I’ve addressed people’s resilience concerns with Curry relative to peers (he’s certainly less healthy, but when healthy he improves much more in the playoffs than numerous other players in this tier. Over his prime, he actually shows a small improvement in the playoffs even including injured seasons)
12. I’ve addressed concerns that Curry faced weaker opponents than the competition (this is simply not true)
13. I’ve addressed concerns that Curry was less good in the 2017 than in the 2016 regular season (the data/film show he was just as good as a player)
13. I’ve addressed concerns about peak length (Curry’s peak is no shorter than other peaks voted in already)
14. I’ve addressed discussions about him playing below maximum potential in the 2017 Regular Season (It was due to adjusting to a new fit, which potentially shows good leadership, but even if that’s unconvincing, the evidence we have suggests Curry’s prime regular season is still over the rest of the current competition)
A few of the most compelling facts I’ve found:
Data in the Playoffs: in 3-year Playoff PIPM, Playoff Augmented Plus Minus, and Playoff Backpicks Box Plus Minus,
2017 Curry universally beats every single player mentioned in the previous thread. He’s also almost-universally considered the better regular season performer in his prime than anyone else mentioned in the last thread, and the data supports this.
Near GOAT-level playmaking:
Curry consistently created better shots for his teammates and improved his teammates' efficiency more than older LeBron, Harden, Jokic, Luka, Westbrook, and older Chris Paul, whether we're looking at a 1-year peak or a 5 Year prime. In 2017: Curry improved his teammates’ shooting percentage by +7.3%. LeBron (2nd in the league) was way down at +3.9%.
Defensive attention: In the 2017 Finals Game 5: Curry drew the primary attention of at least 2 defenders on 62% of possessions where he was involved (34/55), and his teammates' points were made easier by this 89% of the time (34/38 points benefited from the attention Curry drew). Throughout the 2018 Finals, Curry received double teams 2000% more (that's two-thousand times more) than KD.
Team success: The Warriors dynasty won more regular season games in 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, 4 years, and 5 years than any other team in NBA History. They are one of only 2 teams in NBA history to make it to 5 Finals in a row, along with with Russell’s Celtics.
Curry drove the team success:
With all 3 other all stars off, and just Steph on, the 17-19 Warriors have a better net rating than the 16 Warriors, 13 Heat, 2000 Lakers, 91 Bulls, 87 Lakers, or 86 Celtics. With all 3 all stars on, and just Steph off, the 17-19 Warriors are worse than this season's 2022 Cavs. This trend remains in the playoffs. Playoff Opponents:
2017 Curry faced harder opponents than peak Duncan, Jordan, Bird, Magic, and Russell, who have all been voted over him. Including opponent Injury, peak Curry still faced harder competition than peak Bird, Magic, or Russell.
Playoff Resilience: By the data, 2017 Curry improved in the playoffs far more than prime Giannis or prime Garnett have in any of their playoff runs. (Giannis and KG are the next most-voted players)
In sum: Curry’s the best of the player on the best modern team ever, and the offensive advantage he has over the other peaks we’re considering is massive. He may end up having the biggest gap between when numerous people started voting for him and when he gets voted in. At this point, I’m just not sure what additional evidence I could show to convince people that this Curry guy is deserving of your vote.
I’d like to imagine that people aren’t just ignoring my posts or don’t care about this evidence. Certainly, I’ve had some lovely conversations with people who seem intelligent and open-minded. The only other explanation I can think of is that my posts just aren’t that convincing. With that in mind, if anyone has advice on how I could do better as a poster, do please send it my way! I’d love to get better at explaining my side or trying to convince others, and I don’t seem to be very effective at it, so if there’s ways I can improve, I’m all ears
In a similar vein, if I haven't listened enough to the evidence in favor of another player, I'd love to hear that too!
