What percentage of value for all-time greats came from offense vs defense?

[ceiling raiser]

I’m looking at these guys, but feel free to include others:

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Larry Bird
Kobe Bryant
Wilt Chamberlain
Steph Curry
Tim Duncan
Kevin Garnett
LeBron James
Michael Jordan
Magic Johnson
Dirk Nowitzki
Shaquille O’Neal
Hakeem Olajuwon
Oscar Robertson
David Robinson
Bill Russell

Are any players more than 70/30 in one direction or another? Who is closest to 50/50?

[Cavsfansince84]

My opinion for peak 6-7 years with off% then def%.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 60/40
Larry Bird 80/20
Kobe Bryant 75/25
Wilt Chamberlain 55/45
Steph Curry 90/10
Tim Duncan 50/50
Kevin Garnett 55/45
LeBron James 65/35
Michael Jordan 65/35
Magic Johnson 80/20
Dirk Nowitzki 85/15
Shaquille O’Neal 65/35
Hakeem Olajuwon 55/45
Oscar Robertson 80/20
David Robinson 55/45
Bill Russell 20/80(I think his off is generally underrated)

[MyUniBroDavis]

I’m looking at these guys, but feel free to include others:

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Larry Bird
Kobe Bryant
Wilt Chamberlain
Steph Curry
Tim Duncan
Kevin Garnett
LeBron James
Michael Jordan
Magic Johnson
Dirk Nowitzki
Shaquille O’Neal
Hakeem Olajuwon
Oscar Robertson
David Robinson
Bill Russell

Are any players more than 70/30 in one direction or another? Who is closest to 50/50?

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 65/35
Larry Bird 95/5
Kobe Bryant 95/5
Wilt Chamberlain 50/50?
Steph Curry 100/0
Tim Duncan 50/50
Kevin Garnett 45/55 (Boston pushes it up)
LeBron James 75/25
Michael Jordan 85/15
Magic Johnson 100/0
Dirk Nowitzki 90/10
Shaquille O’Neal 80/20
Hakeem Olajuwon 50/50
Oscar Robertson IDK
David Robinson 35/65
Bill Russell 0/100

[jalengreen]

Not a whole lot of thought put into it but

Steph Curry (100/0)
Magic Johnson (100/0)
Bill Russell (0/100)
Oscar Robertson (95/5?)
Dirk Nowitzki (95/5)
--
Larry Bird (90/10)
Kobe Bryant (90/10)
--
Shaquille O'Neal (80/20)
Michael Jordan (80/20)
LeBron James (70/30)
--
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (60/40)
Kevin Garnett (40/60)
David Robinson (40/60)
Hakeem Olajuwon (45/55)
Tim Duncan (45/55)
Wilt Chamberlain (45/55)

although different perspectives of what "value" entails could yield different results. steph's offensive impact allows you to have field more defensive-oriented lineups with two-way success. smart's ability to play PG has defensive value because it saves you from being forced to play more of a liability at PG and have the defense suffer for it. etc.

[eminence]

Doing to the nearest 10, off the top guestimates. Prime level.

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 60/40
Larry Bird 70/30
Kobe Bryant 80/20
Wilt Chamberlain 40/60
Steph Curry 90/10
Tim Duncan 40/60
Kevin Garnett 60/40 (tricky, but I'd have this for his Minnesota days, reversed or even 30/70 in Boston)
LeBron James 70/30
Michael Jordan 80/20
Magic Johnson 90/10
Dirk Nowitzki 110/-10 (I have Dirk as a very slight negative value defender through his prime)
Shaquille O’Neal 70/30
Hakeem Olajuwon 50/50
Oscar Robertson 90/10
David Robinson 40/60
Bill Russell 10/90

[Dutchball97]

Just as a reference this is how it's split by WS rounded to the nearest 5:

Oscar Robertson 80/20
Steph Curry 75/25
Kobe Bryant 70/30
Magic Johnson 70/30
Michael Jordan 70/30
Dirk Nowitzki 70/30
LeBron James 70/30
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 65/35
Shaquille O’Neal 65/35
Larry Bird 60/40
Wilt Chamberlain 60/40
David Robinson 55/45
Kevin Garnett 50/50
Tim Duncan 50/50
Hakeem Olajuwon 40/60
Bill Russell 20/80

[f4p]

Dirk Nowitzki 95/05
Steph Curry 94/06
Magic Johnson 91/09
Oscar Robertson 83/17
Larry Bird 82/18
Kobe Bryant 81/19
Michael Jordan 79/21
LeBron James 74/26
Shaquille O’Neal 72/28
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 64/36
Wilt Chamberlain 44/56
Hakeem Olajuwon 43/57
Tim Duncan 42/58
David Robinson 40/60
Kevin Garnett 34/66
Bill Russell 13/87

[SickMother]

Cool topic, I added in another half dozen guys I was curious about then used career Offensive & Defensive Win Shares to break them into tiers. From most offensive to least...

Oscar Robertson (152.0 OWS | 37.2 DWS | 80% O | 20% D)
Jerry West (124.6 OWS | 37.9 DWS | 77% O | 23% D)

Steph Curry (87.6 OWS | 32.7 DWS | 73% O | 27% D)
Kevin Durant (111.1 OWS | 44.1 DWS | 72% O | 28% D)
Nikola Jokic (57.2 OWS | 22.4 DWS | 72% O | 28% D)
Magic Johnson (110.6 OWS | 45.2 DWS | 71% O | 29% D)
Kobe Bryant (122.1 OWS | 50.7 DWS | 71% O | 29% D)
Michael Jordan (149.9 OWS | 64.1 DWS | 70% O | 30% D)
LeBron James (173.9 OWS | 75.6 DWS | 70% O | 30% D)
Dirk Nowitzki (143.8 OWS | 62.6 DWS | 70% O | 30% D)

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (178.9 OWS | 94.5 DWS | 65% O | 35% D)
Shaquille O’Neal (115.4 OWS | 66.4 DWS | 64% O | 36% D)
Wilt Chamberlain (153.3 OWS | 93.9 DWS | 62% O | 38% D)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (53.8 OWS | 33.7 DWS | 61% O | 39% D)
Dwyane Wade (73.3 OWS | 47.4 DWS | 61% O | 39% D)
Larry Bird (86.8 OWS | 59.0 DWS | 60% O | 40% D)
Julius Erving (107.3 OWS | 73.8 DWS | 59% O | 41% D)

David Robinson (98.5 OWS | 80.1 DWS | 55% O | 45% D)
Kevin Garnett (99.9 OWS | 91.5 DWS | 52% O | 48% D)
Tim Duncan (100.0 OWS | 106.3 DWS | 48% O | 52% D)
Hakeem Olajuwon (68.3 OWS | 94.5 DWS | 42% O | 58% D)

Bill Russell (29.9 OWS | 133.6 DWS | 18% O | 82% D)

[falcolombardi]

Completely guessing i would say somethingh like

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 55/45 (at peak)
Larry Bird 85/15
Kobe Bryant 90/10
Wilt Chamberlain 45/55? (67)
Steph Curry 90/10
Tim Duncan 35/65
Kevin Garnett 35/65
LeBron James 60/40 (thinkikg 2009)
Michael Jordan 70/30
Magic Johnson 95/5?
Dirk Nowitzki 90/10
Shaquille O’Neal 65/35(2000)
Hakeem Olajuwon 40/60(93-94)
Bill russel 10/90?

[70sFan]

Just as a reference this is how it's split by WS rounded to the nearest 5:

Oscar Robertson 80/20
Steph Curry 75/25
Kobe Bryant 70/30
Magic Johnson 70/30
Michael Jordan 70/30
Dirk Nowitzki 70/30
LeBron James 70/30
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 65/35
Shaquille O’Neal 65/35
Larry Bird 60/40
Wilt Chamberlain 60/40
David Robinson 55/45
Kevin Garnett 50/50
Tim Duncan 50/50
Hakeem Olajuwon 40/60
Bill Russell 20/80

It's not that bad actually.

[Texas Chuck]

although different perspectives of what "value" entails could yield different results. steph's offensive impact allows you to have field more defensive-oriented lineups with two-way success. smart's ability to play PG has defensive value because it saves you from being forced to play more of a liability at PG and have the defense suffer for it. etc.

I find this point an important one to make. Glad you mentioned it.

I am confused then to see your numbers be so polarized which seems in opposition to this. But I think its imperative that we realize that this is not 1950's Iowa girl's high school basketball which was literally two 3x3 half court games where half the players only played offense and half the players only played defense and there was no transition.

It all interconnects. Take relatively poor defenders(in an all-time sense) Kobe and Dirk. The fact that both do such a great job protecting the ball absolutely has positive defensive impact. Or a guy like KG who is both a disruptive turnover causing defender and great rebounder helps the offense get easier opportunties. And countless examples of this.

Bill Russell being a huge one. I mean I think almost everyone itt understands how the Russell Celtics won--they played the best in-era defense the Association has ever seen and then they played incredibly fast creating as many possessions as possible which allowed that great defense to have more impact. Well Russell blocking so many shots and keeping them in play, being a dominant defensive rebounder, an all-time great outlet passer, one of the best transition bigs to ever play and that includes being able to advance the ball personally--all of that meant less time attacking set defenses which absolutely helped the Boston offense. We can't just look at low FG%(which weren't even that low in-era for much of his career) and conclude this guy had minimal offensive impact.

[capfan33]

5-year prime estimate

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 65-35
Larry Bird 90-10
Kobe Bryant 95-5
Wilt Chamberlain 35-65
Steph Curry 95-5
Tim Duncan 35-65
Kevin Garnett 35-65
LeBron James 75-25
Michael Jordan 85-15
Magic Johnson 95-5
Dirk Nowitzki 90-10
Shaquille O’Neal 75-25
Hakeem Olajuwon 40-60
Oscar Robertson 95-5
David Robinson 30-70
Bill Russell 10-90

[Dutchball97]

Just as a reference this is how it's split by WS rounded to the nearest 5:

Oscar Robertson 80/20
Steph Curry 75/25
Kobe Bryant 70/30
Magic Johnson 70/30
Michael Jordan 70/30
Dirk Nowitzki 70/30
LeBron James 70/30
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 65/35
Shaquille O’Neal 65/35
Larry Bird 60/40
Wilt Chamberlain 60/40
David Robinson 55/45
Kevin Garnett 50/50
Tim Duncan 50/50
Hakeem Olajuwon 40/60
Bill Russell 20/80

It's not that bad actually.

Yeah that surprised me too. Obviously it's not perfect as it's a hard sell Dirk and LeBron have the exact same offense/defense split but overall it does seem to give a pretty reasonable ballpark for most players.

[Texas Chuck]

Yeah that surprised me too. Obviously it's not perfect as it's a hard sell Dirk and LeBron have the exact same offense/defense split but overall it does seem to give a pretty reasonable ballpark for most players.

I'm not sure I agree, but in theory I see no issues in the ratio being the same. I think we'd all agree Lebron had more positive impact both offensively and defensively from Dirk and that he had significantly more impact on offense just as Dirk did.

Now for those like eminence who ignore the historical record of Dirk that he wasn't Irk in his prime, never a great defender but far from a tragic one, they might disagree because they give Dirk essentially nothing on the defensive end. But for those who can appreciate that Dirk did some good things on defense(or as mentioned above on offense that helped the defense in terms of lineups, and not conceding transition that we have the data that shows directly his impact) it seems fine.

[Dutchball97]

Yeah that surprised me too. Obviously it's not perfect as it's a hard sell Dirk and LeBron have the exact same offense/defense split but overall it does seem to give a pretty reasonable ballpark for most players.

I'm not sure I agree, but in theory I see no issues in the ratio being the same. I think we'd all agree Lebron had more positive impact both offensively and defensively from Dirk and that he had significantly more impact on offense just as Dirk did.

Now for those like eminence who ignore the historical record of Dirk that he wasn't Irk in his prime, never a great defender but far from a tragic one, they might disagree because they give Dirk essentially nothing on the defensive end. But for those who can appreciate that Dirk did some good things on defense(or as mentioned above on offense that helped the defense in terms of lineups, and not conceding transition that we have the data that shows directly his impact) it seems fine.

It's just that I'm pretty high on Dirk's offense and I don't think there is a massive gap with LeBron there and on defense I don't think he was a negative but compared to a DPOY level guy like LeBron you'd expect a bit more seperation. Something like a 100/0 split for Dirk is a bit much I'd agree but you'd at least expect him to be like 75/25 or 80/20.

[Texas Chuck]

Yeah that surprised me too. Obviously it's not perfect as it's a hard sell Dirk and LeBron have the exact same offense/defense split but overall it does seem to give a pretty reasonable ballpark for most players.

I'm not sure I agree, but in theory I see no issues in the ratio being the same. I think we'd all agree Lebron had more positive impact both offensively and defensively from Dirk and that he had significantly more impact on offense just as Dirk did.

Now for those like eminence who ignore the historical record of Dirk that he wasn't Irk in his prime, never a great defender but far from a tragic one, they might disagree because they give Dirk essentially nothing on the defensive end. But for those who can appreciate that Dirk did some good things on defense(or as mentioned above on offense that helped the defense in terms of lineups, and not conceding transition that we have the data that shows directly his impact) it seems fine.

It's just that I'm pretty high on Dirk's offense and I don't think there is a massive gap with LeBron there and on defense I don't think he was a negative but compared to a DPOY level guy like LeBron you'd expect a bit more seperation. Something like a 100/0 split for Dirk is a bit much I'd agree but you'd at least expect him to be like 75/25 or 80/20.

Yeah I'm not arguing in favor of these specific ratios for either player. I don't agree with this whole concept as basketball is more holistic than this.

But I guess I'm higher on Lebron's offense in comparison with even Dirk so I could see how their ratios could be similar even if Lebron was clearly a much better defender than Dirk. I think Lebron is arguably the greatest offensive player of all-time.

[Owly]

Depends what this means.

And ultimately all value is net value. Because if you nuke your value at one end with liability at the other end you don't actually produce value - or at least don't appear to in that role.

Now our expectations and where we set our baselines would also be important. If I were comparing versus the average starter at the position there may well be times where one end is actually in "debt" and the other end their value exceeds their overall net value (Russell?) so one could see something like -25% / 125%.

Just as a reference this is how it's split by WS rounded to the nearest 5:

Oscar Robertson 80/20
Steph Curry 75/25
Kobe Bryant 70/30
Magic Johnson 70/30
Michael Jordan 70/30
Dirk Nowitzki 70/30
LeBron James 70/30
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 65/35
Shaquille O’Neal 65/35
Larry Bird 60/40
Wilt Chamberlain 60/40
David Robinson 55/45
Kevin Garnett 50/50
Tim Duncan 50/50
Hakeem Olajuwon 40/60
Bill Russell 20/80

One problem (and understand and appreciate that this is just a reference not your view of how this should be done) I would have with this - probably not the only one - is the very low baseline. Someone who theoretically produces above 0 zero wins is credited with some value. I would personally think, especially within this context of great players, that such play acknowledged to be dragging you towards awful (e.g. an 8 man rotation each at 0.5 defensive win shares over the season would notionally leave you with 4 defensive wins, which if matched at the other end would put you at an 8 win pace, i.e. awful), have no value.

Even the '99 Nuggets and '06 Supersonics are credited with some net defensive value. It's pretty hard for a rotation-y player (say 5000+ career minutes) to get to negative value overall.

It's debatable depending upon ones purposes but especially at this top end I would be inclined towards a higher baseline.

[Doctor MJ]

I’m looking at these guys, but feel free to include others:

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Larry Bird
Kobe Bryant
Wilt Chamberlain
Steph Curry
Tim Duncan
Kevin Garnett
LeBron James
Michael Jordan
Magic Johnson
Dirk Nowitzki
Shaquille O’Neal
Hakeem Olajuwon
Oscar Robertson
David Robinson
Bill Russell

Are any players more than 70/30 in one direction or another? Who is closest to 50/50?

I'm going to approach this a little differently because I just don't feel like I can give meaningful numbers, and I'm particularly interested in how players evolved.

Kareem - I believe he was likely always more valuable on offense than defense, but that it was close early in his career. By the time he's in LA I don't think it was close any more, and that gap got bigger and bigger and if his defense never went negative, it was because of the poor spacing of the time.

Bird - Always bigger on offense no doubt, but I think he was significantly value on defense for much of his career. When you have a player who improvises a lot while playing considerably more than anyone else, and the result is an elite defense, I think what he's doing out there must be working quite well on the whole.

Kobe - Heavy tilt toward offense the entire time. Clear positive defensive impact in his early prime, and had the ability to be positive defensively when he focused on it and didn't gamble too much.

Wilt - Mild offensive impact for most of his time on the Warriors, massive defensive impact when focused on it. Apex comes in '66-67 with the change in offensive strategy, and in that year his offense likely eclipsed his defense in impact. A second crest in the Sharman Laker years when he bought into the garbage man role (while also being focused, and excellent on defense).

Steph - Heavy tilt toward offense the entire time, but with the defense gradually getting more and more robust to the point where it's become a clear positive even in the playoffs.

Duncan - Heavy tilt toward defense in general. Offensive impact likely peaked in '02-03 and then after falling rose some as he took on a role with less primacy, but unlikely his offense was ever more valuable than defense.

Garnett - In a nutshell - mostly from offense in Minny, mostly from defense in Boston, with the defensive arc being very much detached from his physical arc due to the superior strategy in Boston.

LeBron - Heavy tilt toward offense, but while his defense never comes close to offense, at times his defensive impact was quite big.

Jordan - Similar in general orientation and scale to LeBron, but I think more consistent and robust.

Magic - Heavy tilt toward offense the entire time, but likely with a positive defensive impact for most of his prime because of the benefits of his size in an era with poor spacing.

Dirk - Heavy tilt on the positive with a defensive impact that could be positive but also had vulnerabilities.

Shaq - Heavy tilt toward offense on average, but in his prime his impact against teams that didn't use space against him was quite good.

Hakeem - Defensive tilt, though I think he was a net positive on offense from the jump and once you get to the Rudy T years, his offense starts to become debatable with his defense.

Oscar - Confident that this is an offensive tilt the entire time, but less confident in evaluating his defense precisely.

Robinson - I'm honestly not sure in his alpha years whether his offensive or his defensive impact in the regular season was bigger - I expect both were big. I think his defense was always more robust in the playoffs relative to the norms of the age (most teams were not Run TMC) and as Duncan arrives, Robinson tilts heavily toward defense in general.

Russell - The ultimate tilt toward defense among the all-timers, only real question is whether Russell was positive or negative on offense and when. What's tricky here really is how you're considering a replacement player. As Russell cheats more and more to optimize for defense, are you asking how Russell's offense compared to someone else who would be expected to play his defensive role (along with all the effort that went into that playing every meaningful minute for his team), or whether you're comparing Russell's offense to how you'd expect to use a center with more balanced strengths? As always, what's most real here is the overall impact rather than the offensive vs defensive split.

Adding more players in:

George Mikan - probably the most interesting example here because of how the game changed around him. When he started at DePaul before goaltending was disallowed, I'd expect defense to be his primary source of impact - though his offensive impact was likely considerably higher than his arrival Bob Kurland who wasn't a primary scorer. Once goaltending was disallowed, I'm not actually sure over the next few years which was more valuable between his offense and defense.

If you look at his TS Add, you see how it drops off between '50-51 & '51-52. Some will point out that Mikan was injured in the 1951 playoffs and that may be a factor, but something else I think was likely a major factor was the fact the NBA widened the key from 6 feet to 12 feet (the "key" actually used to look like a key) between those two years specifically to make it harder for Mikan. I think they were trying to make it harder on both sides of the ball, but I think in practice it hurt his offense more than his defense, and frankly I wonder if that rule change might have set the course for big men in the future to typically be stronger on defense than offense.

Jerry West - I'm always curious to know if there was a time when West had defensive impact that would have been by far the best of the non-bigs in the league, but in general I'd have to lean toward saying his offense was always more valuable, and when he was at his best offensively, it wasn't close.

Connie Hawkins - heavy tilt toward offense, but the defense is worth noting - here you have a guy who was an outstanding shot-blocker and thief, but couldn't hold against post-ups against strong guys, which made him a tweener for his day. Teammates, coaching approaches, and opponents loomed large as to whether his defensive value would be positive or negative in his prime, and his defense really decade as he lost his leap.

Julius Erving - heavy tilt toward offense and not typically a big defensive impact guy, but I do think he was very impactful on defense with the right scheme and cast around him (see NY, 1976).

Bill Walton - definite defensive tilt in his prime, but offensive value is significantly positive per minute even toward the end, while defense is more hurt by the loss of explosion.

[kcktiny]

Michael Jordan 65/35
Michael Jordan 85/15
Michael Jordan (80/20)
Michael Jordan 80/20
Michael Jordan 70/30
Michael Jordan 79/21
Michael Jordan (149.9 OWS | 64.1 DWS | 70% O | 30% D)
Michael Jordan 70/30
Michael Jordan 85-15

IMHO Jordan is easily 50/50.

There is likely no greater defensive SG than he. The 6 years the Bulls won titles (90-91 to 92-93, 95-96 to 97-98) they were the 2nd best defensive team in the league (only New York was better defensively), as a team was worse than average in shot blocking over the 6 years, and these 6 years Jordan played 3400 more minutes than Dennis Rodman and Horace Grant did combined.