RealGM

RealGM Greatest Peaks List (2022)
1. 1990-91 Michael Jordan
2. 2012-13 LeBron James
3. 1999-00 Shaquille O'Neal
4. 1976-77 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
5. 1966-67 Wilt Chamberlain
6. 2002-03 Tim Duncan
7. 1993-94 Hakeem Olajuwon
8. 1963-64 Bill Russell
9. 1985-86 Larry Bird
10. 1986-87 Magic Johnson
11. 2016-17 Stephen Curry
12. 2003-04 Kevin Garnett
13. 2020-21 Giannis Antetokounmpo
14. ?

Please vote for your 3 highest player peaks and at least one line of reasoning for each of them.

Vote example 1
1. 1991 Jordan: Explanation
2. 2013 LeBron: Explanation
3. 2000 Shaq: Explanation

In addition, you can also list other peak season candidates from those three players. This extra step is entirely optional

Vote example 2
1. 1991 Jordan: Explanation
(1990 Jordan)
2. 2013 LeBron: Explanation
(2012 LeBron)
(2009 LeBron)
3. 2000 Shaq: Explanation

You can visit the project thread for further information on why this makes a difference and how the votes will be counted at the end of the round.

Voting for this round will close on Tuesday August 2, 9am ET.

1. 1976-77 Bill Walton
I think Walton was a brilliant defender with a better intuitive understanding of the game than David Robinson as the next main big, and a close to ideal team hub on offence, similarly to an extent well beyond David Robinson (even though yes David Robinson has a fair bit more to offer as a scorer). Relative to his era, Walton is of course a clearer standout, but that is true for most old players. And I do value proving your ability to bring a team to a title. Hypotheticals are nice, but I know Bill Walton could win a title with the 1977 Trail Blazers, I think there are substantial indicators he would have repeated in 1978, and there is nothing in David Robinson’s history that makes me similarly confident he could do the same (although to be clear, I would give him good odds).
And for the people who care about deferring to prior projects, maybe worth pointing out Walton was on average the next guy picked here.

2. 2007-08 Kobe Bryant
Kobe I think is an interesting profile. In terms of raw value to his team, he never really hit the same heights as Dwyane Wade. But I think Wade is a lot more innately limiting in building a championship team; deserves his due for the 2006 playoff run, certainly, but I personally am not just gunning for the best individual playoff runs. Although I do make note of them. Kobe seems to fit a little more naturally with other passers and non-spacers and can anchor strong title teams and playoff offences, so giving him the advantage.

3. 2016-17 Kawhi Leonard
Maybe the greatest postseason scorer shy of Jordan and Lebron. Even out of his prime defensive years is still usually a tough man defender. 2017 does lack consistent playmaking, but I am not sure if I feel strongly enough about 2019 or 2021 to go with those years this early instead. The 2019 series against Philadelphia is one of the greatest individual scoring series I have ever seen, but he declined as the postseason went along, and his regular season was pretty low value comparatively. So we settle on the year when Kawhi pre-Zaza injury looked like potentially the best player in the postseason while having a decent MVP regular season campaign. Unibro makes a strong Davis case; I could be swayed on that, but I am more wary of chasing hot streaks, and 2018 was not so incredible that I have total faith in Davis’s ability to approach that level again. 2020 was indeed an incredible postseason though, no doubt there, but is the combination of 2018 + 2020 better than Kawhi’s 2017 + 2019? I mean, like I said, I could be convinced. Gut reaction though is to mark it a bit lower, and bigger samples than that continue to advantage Kawhi.

For potential tiebreaker purposes: Oscar Robertson > Jerry West > David Robinson
I do not have complaints with Oscar Robertson and Jerry West as foundational pieces to building a championship roster the way I do with David Robinson. At least, not in principle; they were game’s best drivers of offence before Magic (and maybe Bird) came along, by pretty comfortable margins. And there is no real way to state with absolutely earned confidence that they could not be incredible drivers of offence in later eras. I have no real issue with either being admitted here, and in fact historically Oscar has been the guy to go in this top fifteen range (variably relative to Walton and Erving; I considered adding Erving to this tiebreaker too, but my thoughts on him are messier, and he did not have the voting support of these three). With all that said, though… I do not really think either of them were better players in the absolute than guards like Dwyane Wade or wings like Kawhi. I mean, Wade would be an awful fit with Elgin Baylor, so point to West there, but my thought is typically that if a team runs into that type of situation, they should just trade one for a haul. It is not as if holding onto stars who can fit always works out — fair argument that the Lakers probably should have looked to trade Baylor as soon as Wilt came in, at least from a cold perspective of team building.

Anyway, I think Oscar was capable of being a similar impact postseason player to West but by virtue of sharing a conference with Russell (and sometimes Wilt) and playing on a worse team, he never had the opportunity to develop a large sample by routinely running through the weaker conference every year. Fun fact I recall: both pre-Kareem Oscar and pre-Wilt West have exactly one series win against a positive SRS opponent. Because when it comes down to it, even though they were high, high above the other guards of their era, and even though WOWY indicates they might have been more purely important to their teams than Wilt ever was (in the regular season at least), neither were particularly close to Wilt or Russell as players in their era. But we see even their older versions do fairly well as Russell left and the league started to shift somewhat more toward the perimetre, so I do think either could have led Rick Barry or Julius Erving -esque title teams. If we just grant them some deference later on, possibly in more modern eras too (although again, for me, probably not to the same extent as Wade or Kawhi).

David Robinson to me compares more to Nate Thurmond if we track him backward. Better offensive player, but Thurmond is one of the guys I am fine putting above him defensively. And although I see an argument that peak Nate Thurmond maybe had more absolute value in that specific era than Oscar or West had… it is a tenuous argument because injuries kept Thurmond out of the playoffs during some of his peak years and because his offensive limitations meant he never did anything without Rick Barry (or 1964 Wilt lol) when he was healthy, even if I think he was more valuable than Barry in 1967 and possibly/probably? 1973. Not saying that to disrespect Robinson: he would become more valuable than Thurmond pretty quickly, if Thurmond was ever better, and he almost certainly could have won titles in place of like Reed, Gilmore, or Cowens, for example. I do not see a major disparity here, but again, problem with Robinson has always been that he has basically no history of real postseason elevation, nothing like 1963 Boston series Robertson or (pick a few random Finals years) West. And to bring it back to Walton, nothing like that Finals either.

I just wanted to hear you guys toughts about this. It came to my mind that walton's peak may be overrated, maybe due to his legendary ucla career or him being white. And I'm not even referring to this thread in particular, but you know, to that aura around him especially until some years ago, that almost makes you believe that he could have been the goat center and that he had a top ten peak. The reasons why I'm I'm speculating this are:
1) He didn't play many seasons at a high level, obviously due to injuries but we just don't have confirmation of how good he was.
2) I get that he won the title and the mvp the next year, but those were rather weak years imho, and not so great teams were winning rings from 74 to 79. He only went 49-33 in the rs. I tought he had a clear supporting cast advantage compared to any playoff opponent's best player, and the competition was just bad. In the finals, I think that DR.J was clearly the best player on the floor, he just had a worse team. Also, Bill wasn't voted as an all star or all-nba in his first (previous) 2 seasons, so I just wonder if he just happened to have a great team and weak competition that year.
3) I agree that he was an ideal team hub offensively, like the poster above me said, and a great defender, but he wasn't as supremely talented as a scorer and as an athlete (not saying he wasn't a very good athlete, if we leave out durability) as many other centers. I don't know if his combination of skills was as good as a drob or a pat ewing or moses malone and that much better than an elvin hayes, willis reed..
4) I'm just trying to reflect on how great he was: Walton won a ring as his team's best player, and could have won his 2nd the next year (the team was 48-10 when he was on the floor), and in those two years he was all def 1 team and was #1 and #2 in the mvp rankings. That's more than enough proof of his greatness. But then I think about it: in the 70s also willis reed won mvp and fmvp in 1970, I'll admit playing with great teammates like frazier, debusschere, barnett, bradley, russell. Now, in 1975 rick barry carried his team to the ring, a much more impressive ring in my opinion. Now, there are a few other players not normally considered top 20 career/peak players, that did or could have won a ring as their team's best player and the best playoff performer of that particular season (leonard did it, harden almost did it and would have done it if he didn't have to face the warriors, jimmy butler was very close while facing better teams..especially since bill walton's ring was more of a team ring than a carry job. So, I was just wondering, is there any evidence that leads to us thinking that he could potentially have been in that kaj/shaq/wilt/bill/hakeem category, like, what separates what he did from what the guys I mentioned did.

Like, are you guys positive that he was that great, or do you think that we took that notion and run with it because of the reasons I mentioned?

lebron3-14-3 wrote:He only went 49-33 in the rs.

Touched on later, but I'd point out they went 44-21 with Walton (5-12 without).

For me durability even at peak would still keep me from going with Walton yet or even in the near future, even at his absolute best health you're only getting him ~80% of the time.

10. 2008 Kobe Bryant

I know this is probably going to be controversial on this forum since he’s usually fringe t15 on peak lists around here (due to what seems like RS impact metrics). Most Impact metrics generally do have him around the fringe t15 range (like 13-17ish) but Kobe is one of the biggest PO risers ever. Here’s 08-10 Kobe from the RS to PO (biggest peak PO sample we have without 2 first round exits skewing results).

(Box numbers are IA/75)
RS
28.3 PTS
5.3 AST
5.8 TRB
3 TOV
+1.8 rTS
+5.3 BBR BPM (+3.9/g)
+5 BP BPM/g (+6.7/100)
+4.1 AuPM/g (+5.5/100)
+5.96 RAPTOR (+4.4/g)

PO
30.5 PTS
5.6 AST
5.8 TRB
3 TOV/75
+3.9 rTS
+7.8 BPM (+6/g)
+6.3 BP BPM/g (+8.2/100)
+4.7 AuPM/g (+6.1/100)
+8.07 RAPTOR (+6.2/g)

Here’s just 2008 since that’s his best season

RS
28.1 PTS
5.3 AST
6.1 TRB
3 TOV
+3.6 rTS
+5.8 BBR BPM (+4.5/g)
+6.1 BP BPM/g (+7.9/100)
+4.2 AuPM/g (+5.4/100)
+7.09 RAPTOR (+5.5/g)

PO
30.5 PTS
5.6 AST
5.6 TRB
3.2 TOV
+4.9 rTS
+7.4 BBR BPM (+5.9/g)
+6.7 BP BPM/g (+8.4/100)
+2.1 3yr AuPM/g (+2.6/100 this is obviously skewed by the 2 previous years)
+7.63 RAPTOR (+6.06/g)

31 IA PTS/75 on +5 rTS is absolutely insane when you consider that he’s playing in 2 center lineups with his best spacer being him and facing more gravity than anyone in nba history that’s name doesn’t start with an S. Him being able to pretty much maintain that in the PO over a 3yr stretch of finals runs against GOAT tier PO comp (same points on +4 rTS) is pretty damn good evidence for him being not only an all time PO riser but this scoring production being real for him. Him being an all time PO riser makes since because he’s arguably the best tough shot maker of all time and is a clear all time self creator which is the number 1 way for your scoring to be resilient in the PO against tougher defenses and more defensive attention. His defense was also pretty solid in 2008. He did still have a bit of a motor issue in the RS but it consistently would shoot up in the PO and this was no different in 08. He was a very good on ball defender but was also a good off ball defender (really good trapper, was the lakers’ primary communicator, and I thought his off ball awareness was improved from his past few years, although his closeout D wasn’t great which hurt his overall off ball D)

Overall i think it’s pretty fair to put Kobe in that top 10 range although I could see him at like 14ish(?) depending how high you are on others/low on him

12. 2004 Kevin Garnett

I was surprised he didn’t get voted into the top 10 with how seemingly reliant this server is on impact metrics specifically in the RS. How I can see the argument to have KG at 8 but I can also see him under my number 13 (Bill Russell who was already voted. I may do him a profile for him and then add an extra vote along with him so y’all at least get to see my thoughts on him). Now 2004 KG is usually a GOAT tier season by impact metrics but this is because his offense is very boosted (for example in Ben Taylor’s Scaled APM/g KG is a +9.4 overall and a +5.6 offensively which would put him in the same tier as guys like Kobe Bryant Steve Nash and Dwyane Wade) and his offense drops in the PO. The reason he isn’t as good offensively is because he isn’t a good enough self creator to rise as a scorer (especially as a number 1 option) and isn’t good enough on the ball to maintain the same quality of play when receiving more defensive attention (which he did face in the PO which is why his TOV rates went up in 2004). Now KG is still a very good offensive player and I would consider him an Offensive star but I would say he’s worse than a Tim Duncan Offensively because of his PO resilience. We don’t have very good PO samples for prime KG outside of 2004 and 2008 but he does fall across the board in the PO if you look at his PO stats in 04 and 08

(IA/75)

RS
24.9 PTS
4.9 AST
13.4 TRB
2.5 TOV
+3.4 rTS
+9.4 BBR BPM
+6.6 BP BPM/g
+9.05 RAPTOR


PO (44 GP)
23.8 PTS
4.4 AST
13.1 TRB
3 TOV
+.2 rTS
+6.5 BBR BPM
+5.7 BP BPM
+6.26 RAPTOR

KG I think is a really good representation of why the O2 D1 archetype isn’t amazing. It is rare that it will be a maximized archetype and they aren’t good enough on the ball to maintain value in the PO offensively in situations they’re more likely to be in which hurts their overall value. I could see him higher if you’re more confident in his offense in a PO environment but if you’re lower on his defense (which I didn’t really talk about but I don’t think there’s much to discuss ATG perimeter D big goat tier versatility goat tier help defender elite but not all time rim protector fringe t5 defender ever) I could see him behind my number 13

13. 1965 Bill Russell

Now I know bill Russell was already picked but he is my 13th best peak I wanted to talk about why he’s so low for me. Now bill Russell is the best defender of all time but how big the gap much he is than Hakeem or Tim Duncan is something I do question a lot. I feel like a +6 is the highest I can BR as a defender and that might be gassing it. The 60s Celtics were had the greatest defensive coach ever and idk if there was a single - defender on the entire team. They also had Peak KC Jones who’s one of the best defenders ever and prime Tom sanders. Bill Russell was 100% the most valuable piece of that defense I just question how much value he has. It is hard to determine which year is truly Bill Russell’s best with how little film and data we have of him but 65 is when he was being used more as a playmaker and his scoring likely didn’t change much. Bill Russell isn’t a very good offensive player but he definitely isn’t a - in that aspect. He is an ok scorer and an all time Playmaking center and likely a goat tier offensive rebounder. I like other players two way ability more and have more confidence in their value which is just natural when you have as little information on someone as we do for Bill. I could see him at 10 but could also potentially see him lower 13 is the Lowest I go generally

ceoofkobefans wrote:12. 2004 Kevin Garnett

lebron3-14-3 wrote:So, I was just wondering, is there any evidence that leads to us thinking that he could potentially have been in that kaj/shaq/wilt/bill/hakeem category, like, what separates what he did from what the guys I mentioned did.

Apart from WOWY results (and the like), not much. But everyone there made the top eight, and in my reading of prior threads, I do not really recall anyone voting for Walton above those names. You said you are not sure about his comparison to Reed, Moses, Ewing, etc. Well, his passing is clearly better, and his teams clearly relied on him more. Bit odd to describe his team as a good one while also knowing that the team was bad to irrelevant without him (whereas Reed’s would shortly after make the Finals without him and then after that win the Finals with him playing low starting minutes).

01 Erving 75-76: 28.7 PER | .569 TS% | 110 TS+ | 17.7 WS | .262 WS/48
01 Erving 75-76 Playoffs?!?: 32.0 PER | .610 TS% | 3.7 WS | .321 WS/48
[a peak so high the NBA absorbed a whole other league to get this guy under their banner. Doctor turned in a top tier do it all regular season, then followed it up with one of thee largest postseason efficiency increases of all time.]

02 Hawkins 67-68: 28.8 PER | .597 TS% | 124 TS+ | 17.5 WS | .273 WS/48
02 Hawkins 67-68 Playoffs?!?: 30.0 PER | .651 TS% | 4.0 WS | .310 WS/48
[for what amounts to spot #13 on my ballot I'll go with maybe thee unluckiest player in basketball history, robbed of his collegiate & early NBA career by completely spurious gambling allegations, then derailed by a knee injury which occurred amidst the ABA Championship in this very season.

but there was never any doubt Connie could ball from the outset as one of the original NYC greats at Rucker Park & being named the best high school player in the country in 1960. As for his 67-68 peak, the Hawk simply did everything. Topped the brand new ABA in PPG on monster efficiency, 2nd in the league in RPG, 3rd in the league in APG. Then took his game to a whole other level in the playoffs, hurting his knee during the Championship series & returning to lead his team to the top in heroic fashion even before Willis Reed (or Giannis) did it.

I get it, the 67-68 ABA is probably the 2nd weakest competition level to receive a vote so far besides 49-50 Mikan, but Hawkins had no alternative, it was the best league available to him due to his illegal blacklisting from the NBA & he thoroughly dominated it across the board. Also think that Connie's peak game works in any era with his mix of size, athleticism and all around skillset.]

***I have a tier break here which goes from #14 to #25 with the following seasons under consideration (in chrono order) 63-64 Oscar, 65-66 West, 82-83 Moses, 94-95 Admiral, 03-04 Garnett, 05-06 Wade, 05-06 Nowitzki, 08-09 Kobe, 16-17 Kawhi, 16-17 Durant, 20-21 Giannis and 21-22 Jokic.***

03 Kawhi 16-17: 27.6 PER | .610 TS% | 111 TS+ | 13.6 WS | .264 WS/48
03 Kawhi 16-17 Playoffs?!?: 31.5 PER | .672 TS% | 2.8 WS | .314 WS/48
[ultimately going with Kawhi for two main reasons, his elite defense as a wing defender is unique among the remaining contenders, and that postseason was shaping up as a best ever candidate with Leonard posting absolutely insane efficiency before Zaza stepped in.]

1. '95 David Robinson ('94 DRob, '96 DRob)
Not sure the best year to go with; each has a slightly differing selling point, and honestly I think he was near the same level in all three years.
I imagine this will be a contraversial pick, but it sort of follows in the same vein as my Kevin Garnett pick: two-way dynamos.
I think people sometimes fail to acknowledge how extraordinary an OFFENSIVE player Robinson was in the regular season.......they just focus on the playoff decline.
I've made this [only slightly hyperbolic] statement before: Robinson was essentially asked/expected to be Bill Russell on defense AND Michael Jordan on offense for those early-mid 90s Spurs teams.

And the crazy as **** part is: he was mostly successful during the rs.

Frankly if he HAD been able to maintain that in the post-season, he'd have more than a puncher's chance of taking the #1 greatest peak of all-time.

In addition to his off-the-chart box-derived metrics [in the rs], look at his rs impact metrics over this same three-year span:
'94 Top 5 APM (from colts18)
1. David Robinson: +7.31
2. Kevin Willis: +5.44
3. Karl Malone: +5.37
4. Hakeem Olajuwon: +5.10
5. Nate McMillan: +4.85
(NOTE: the separation between Robinson [at #1] and #2 is greater than the separation between #2 and #11).

'94 Top 5 AuPM (Backpicks)
1. David Robinson: +6.7
2. Karl Malone: +5.2
3. Nate McMillan: +4.8
4. Hakeem Olajuwon: +4.5
5. Kevin Willis: +4.3
(NOTE: the separation between Robinson [at #1] and #2 is greater than the separation between #2 and #6).


'95 Top 5 APM
1. David Robinson: +7.42
2. Shaquille O'Neal: +5.80
3. Karl Malone: +4.93
4. Anfernee Hardaway: +4.68
5. Scottie Pippen: +4.63
(NOTE: the separation between Robinson [at #1] and #2 is greater than the separation between #2 and #6).

'95 Top 5 AuPM
1. David Robinson: +8.7
2. Scottie Pippen: +5.9
3. Shaquille O'Neal: +5.6
4. Anfernee Hardaway: +5.6
5. Karl Malone: +5.3
(NOTE: the separation between Robinson [at #1] and #2 is equal to the separation between #2 and #24).


'96 Top 5 APM
1. Michael Jordan: +6.67
2. David Robinson: +5.89
3. Anfernee Hardaway: +5.26
4. Scottie Pippen: +4.99
5. Karl Malone: +4.89

'96 Top 5 AuPM
1. David Robinson: +6.7
2. Michael Jordan: +6.5
3. Scottie Pippen: +5.8
4. Anfernee Hardaway: +5.7
5. Karl Malone: +5.2


I mean, holy cow. You look at these three years, and he's not just outperforming the competition......he's obliterating it! Except for a prime Michael Jordan [in '96], there's no one remotely close to him in the rs.
And these are almost exclusively all-timers he's obliterating.
In the playoffs, he comes back to Earth: down to maybe being only maybe like the 2nd or 3rd-best player in the league. Oh dear.

So how much deduction should he get for going from GOAT-candidate in rs to circa-2nd best in any given year in the playoffs?
idk.....decide for yourself. But don't sleep on how friggin' unearthly he was in the rs.
For myself, he's near the region of Duncan/Hakeem/Garnett; usually just behind, but really really close.


2. '22 Nikola Jokic ('21)
No one else immediately on my radar until these two guys are in.
Jokic is one of the most complete offensive players of all-time, imo: Very efficient and very difficult to stop in low-post isolation? Check. Elite mid-range shot? Check. Good 3pt shooting? Check. Good FT shooting? Check. Double-team at your own peril? Double-check. Creation off the dribble or in transition [unusual in a big-man]? Check. Relevant offensive rebounding? Check. Reasonably efficient turnover economy? Check.

His offensive impact on these Denver squads has been off the charts, in an historic sense. While Murray was out, they were approximately the worst offensive team in the league when Jokic sat; and then when he was in the game, they were approximately the BEST offensive team in the league. I mean seriously: from last to first. Who the hell does that?

I also wonder if his D gets underrated at times too (at least when people label him a "weak" or "bad" defender).
The Nuggets were pretty much exactly league-average defensively last year; if your center [the most important defensive position]---who also played more minutes than anyone on the team---is "bad" or "weak", there must be others who are lifting your defense back up to mediocrity. Let's look at who that might be....

Aaron Gordon is a decent defensive forward to my eye, though not All-D tier or anything [imo].
Campazzo [8th in minutes] is pesky as hell, though also undersized [and a bit foul-prone]; I'm still inclined to think he's a plus defender overall, but not really moving the needle far (especially being only 8th in minutes played).
JaMychal Green [9th in minutes] at least contributes a respectable amount of DRebs/stl/blk, so maybe he's decent(ish) defensively? I can't claim enough eye-test on him recently to say. Some other guys aren't bad, but with the departure of Gary Harris their defensive backcourt is certainly nothing special (couple guys sort of medium-far down on the minutes list could be called legit BAD defenders).
So is this enough to off-set a truly "bad" defensive C (who also leads the team in minutes)?
idk, I'm a pinch skeptical anyway.

I'd also look at WHERE their defense performs well, and where it does not.
Where does it NOT perform well?.....
Opp TOV%: 26th in the league. This is generally something that is more predicated on your perimeter defense (they will usually be the ones generating turnovers or otherwise forcing errors thru ball-pressure). Not an aspect of defense we can reasonably expect a C to carry; imo, this is something that reflects more poorly on the perimeter defense. And fwiw, Jokic leads the team [comfortably] in spg, and is 2nd [to only Campazzo] in stl/100 of guys in their regular rotation; so he's a notable component of what few turnovers they do generate.

Opp eFG%: 20th in the league (and in particular: 28th in opp 2pt%). OK, this one DOES reflect poorly on Jokic. Certainly it depends to a degree on schemes and team defense, but this is certainly something you'd expect a good rim-protecting C to put a serious dent in. fwiw, Jokic leads the team in bpg [is 2nd to only Cousins in blk/100].

Opp FT rate: This one is a bit of a mixed bag as to who [which position(s)] has the bigger role. Really it's something of a total team effort/coordination, imo. They were 12th in the league in this category (respectable).

DREB%: This is perhaps the category a C can leave the most imprint on. They're on the interior, they are [or should be] boxing out; they're the ones securing the lion's share of defensive boards on most teams.
Denver's rank? 6th. It's the one defensive FF they were actually borderline-elite at.
Jokic was a close 2nd in the league in individual DREB% (behind only Rudy Gobert, and well ahead of 3rd place), and is far and away leading the Nuggets in defensive boards; there isn't anyone else on the team who even has 40% as many.

And when I watch Jokic, I see a guy with a reasonably decent defensive IQ, and passable effort. He lacks good lateral quickness or recovery speed, he lacks explosive leaping ability, he doesn't have Gobert's length, his rim protecting positioning [mostly with where he has his arms, imo] could be a little better. But his awareness and footwork......those are pretty good, imo.

So overall, idk......I just think his defensive short-comings are overstated sometimes.


3. '64 Oscar Robertson
Sort of like an oversized Chris Paul. Same killer accuracy in the mid-range (and probably BETTER in isolation: just used that big body to back in a bit, swish that turnaround), savvy [if somewhat overly cautious] playmaking and "floor-generalship" (also similar to Paul; Paul's turnover economy is probably slightly better, but still similar in style).
Oscar maybe doesn't have Paul's defensive instinct and quick hands, but his size and outstanding rebounding from the PG position more than make up for it, imo. His defense looks just fine to my limited eye, and there's some evidence [wrt his arrival/departure from Milwaukee] that he had notable defensive impact [at least some years].

His WOWYR are eye-popping (I think he's like 1st or 2nd all-time, iirc??).

I think a primary Chris Paul comparison is selling Oscars scoring game well short, off the top of the head I believe he has the 2nd highest TSA perimeter peak (behind '16 Curry), while Chris Paul is more than a wee bit lower (392.5 vs 163.6). I believe Oscar has more seasons above 300 than any other player.

Basically, he's arguably the best perimeter scorer in history (which I would argue means he's the best scorer in history, but fair to my big man lovers out there). In fact, I think he has the best argument.

lebron3-14-3 wrote:So, I was just wondering, is there any evidence that leads to us thinking that he could potentially have been in that kaj/shaq/wilt/bill/hakeem category, like, what separates what he did from what the guys I mentioned did.

Obviously health/longevity are what hold Walton back on the all time or career lists, but even focusing only on peak his scoring efficiency & volume just don't really stack up with other historically great bigs...

ALREADY MADE IT
Shaq 99-00: 111 TS+ | 224 TS Add
KAJ 76-77: 119 TS+ | 345 TS Add
Wilt 66-67: 129 TS+ | 442 TS Add
Duncan 02-03: 109 TS+ | 148 TS Add
Hakeem 93-94: 107 TS+ | 144 TS Add
Russell 63-64: 95 TS+ | -59 TS Add
Garnett 03-04: 106 TS+ | 113 TS Add
Giannis 20-21: 111 TS+ | 167 TS Add

FUTURE CONTENDERS
Walton 76-77: 110 TS+ | 113 TS Add
Admiral 94-95: 111 TS+ | 219 TS Add
Connie 67-68: 124 TS+ | 359 TS Add
Jokic 21-22: 117 TS+ | 287 TS Add
Pettit 58-59: 114 TS+ | 251 TS Add
Dirk 05-06: 110 TS+ | 194 TS Add
Moses 82-83: 109 TS+ | 153 TS Add
Ewing 89-90: 112 TS+ | 246 TS Add
Alonzo 99-00: 114 TS+ | 212 TS Add
Willis 68-69: 114 TS+ | 219 TS Add
Dwight 08-09: 110 TS+ | 151 TS Add
Embiid 21-22: 109 TS+ | 169 TS Add

Now of course scoring isn't everything, and Walton is probably something like a Top 10 passer & defender among these 20 mostly centers, so that helps his case some along with the hardware & leading his team to the top of the mountain, but for me he's at best 5th on that future contenders list.

1. 1994 Robinson
Similar to KG in many ways, I ultimately have him a bit below KG largely because I like KG's skillset more overall and think he's a bit more portable. I also think KG's absurd horizontal defense is the best overall skill either of them have and is a bit more of an outlier, which tips things in his direction. I also am not a huge fan of how basic Robinson's scoring game seems to be, I think it makes him more predictable and easier to gameplan against. While I have reservations about KG's playoff scoring, his superior mid-range game and passing makes me more comfortable with him in the playoffs in various situations, specifically in regards to his baseline impact level on offense. It is close however, and I can see arguments both ways.

2. 1966 West
The best scorer before Kareem and arguably one of the 5 best scorers ever if you give more weight to the postseason (which I do), West was ahead of his time to say the least. To me he still has the great pull-up jumper ever and had an incredible bag of tricks, especially relative to other players of his era. He was also an excellent passer and while his passing and scoring peak didn't coincide, he was still excellent in that regard in 66 (according to elgee's passing rating metric, he actually peaked a bit higher than Oscar). Excellent rebounding guard due to him being the same height as Kobe/MJ with a 6'9 wingspan and a reported max vertical in the neighborhood of ~36 inches, he was also an underrated athlete. Finally, from most available evidence he is one of the greatest defensive guards ever. He was a menace in the passing lanes as well as being an excellent shotblocker and man defender.

3. 1964 Robertson
Probably the best offensive player of the pre-3point line era, Robertson was an elite combo of volume scoring, efficiency and playmaking. I do think that his offensive reputation is somewhat overstated due to the fact that his teams were oriented towards offense which cut into their defense, specifically at Center, but his offensive results are still impressive. Marginal defense keeps him from going higher, but I think this is a good place for him.

1. Doctor J 1976. Yes, it was in the ABA. The final year of that league before the merger in 77 and at that point, the ABA was loaded with future Hall of Famers such as David Thompson, Artis Gilmore, George Gervin, Bobby Jones and Dan Issel. No plumbers or milkmen in that group. And Dr J put up one of the best all-around seasons ever. Led the league in scoring at 29.3 ppg. Fifth in rebounding at 11.0 rpg. Seventh in assists at 5.0 apg. Third in steal at 2.5 spg. Seventh in blocks at 1.9 bpg. Tenth in field goal percentage at .507% and sixth in 3-point % at 33%. And led the league in PER, Win Shares, Offensive Win Shares, Defensive Win Shares, WS/48, Box Plus/Minus, VORP, and Usage %. Off the top of my head, the only other player who dominated across that many aspects of the game might be 51 Mikan but we don't have any idea what his blocks or steal numbers were and I'd guess that the competition level in the 76 ABA was higher than the 51 NBA.

2. Oscar Robertson 1964. Averaged a near triple double with 31.4/9.9/11.0 at a time when no one was specifically trying for a triple double (I never even heard of the term in that era). But for context, we have to remember it was an era with very high pace and the big stars played far more minutes than in later eras so his counting stats would be less impressive in a later era. But context works both ways and it was much more difficult for a non-big to dominate in that era than in later eras as well. And for a guard, Oscar dominated like no other then. The Big O was 2nd in scoring, 16th in rebounds/game (the only guard to finish in the top 25), 2nd in TS%, 2nd in minutes/game, 2nd in both PER and WS (only Wilt was higher), first in Offensive WS, 10th in Defensive WS, and led the league in FT% and assists. Plus that one-handed push shot he used for free throws just looked so cool that I have to give him style points for that!

3. Jerry West 1966. Since I listed Oscar, I have to include West; they just kinda go together like peanut butter and jelly. Aside from MJ, West may be the best combination of offense and defense of any guard in history. He was the complete package on offense - tremendous jump shooter from the outside, excellent driving to the basket (his .564 free throw rate rivaled some of Harden's top 5 seasons), was fifth in assists/game (led the league in 72), and led the league in TS% at .573 (without a 3-point line!). No question in my mind that he would have been on the All-Defensive team if such an award were around; the year after Russell retired, he stated that West was not just the best defensive guard in the league but the best defensive player. Granted, his comment may have been a swipe at his rival Wilt, but in a league where Thurmond, DeBusschere, and Frazier were running around it is still quite a compliment. His only real knock career-wise is his durability, but he played 79 games in 66 and his 3,218 minutes were good for 7th best in the league. And as good as West was in his time, he played in arguably the worst era for his particular skillset; he would have been even more spectacular if he were playing in today's game where players are raised to spam as many 3's as possible. But since I can only rank players based on what they actually accomplished and not what they might have accomplished if they were born in a different year, I have him listed 3rd here.

eminence wrote:I think a primary Chris Paul comparison is selling Oscars scoring game well short, off the top of the head I believe he has the 2nd highest TSA perimeter peak (behind '16 Curry), while Chris Paul is more than a wee bit lower (392.5 vs 163.6). I believe Oscar has more seasons above 300 than any other player.

Part of this is the era played in, where TS% was so [relatively] low. Personally, I'm doubtful Oscar would be so efficient [relative to league] in a more modern context.

Unless you contend Oscar would: a) shoot something close to 60% in the mid-range [impossible in game situation over large sample, imo], or b) he would develop into an elite-level 3pt shooter in the modern era [possible, but unknown], or c) have Harden-esque knack for getting to the FT-line [possible, but unlikely given stylistic tendencies]........his TSAdd is unlikely to distance itself from Paul's to this same degree if he played in the modern era.

Flip-side, admittedly, is that we can't say for sure that Paul would be as efficient [relative to era] if he'd been born 40-50 years earlier.


It's not a perfect comparison; but I guess let me put it this way: can you think of a BETTER modern-era comparison for Oscar, ALL things [not just scoring] considered?

trex_8063 wrote:

eminence wrote:I think a primary Chris Paul comparison is selling Oscars scoring game well short, off the top of the head I believe he has the 2nd highest TSA perimeter peak (behind '16 Curry), while Chris Paul is more than a wee bit lower (392.5 vs 163.6). I believe Oscar has more seasons above 300 than any other player.

Part of this is the era played in, where TS% was so [relatively] low. Personally, I'm doubtful Oscar would be so efficient [relative to league] in a more modern context.

Unless you contend Oscar would: a) shoot something close to 60% in the mid-range [impossible in game situation over large sample, imo], or b) he would develop into an elite-level 3pt shooter in the modern era [possible, but unknown], or c) have Harden-esque knack for getting to the FT-line [possible, but unlikely given stylistic tendencies]........his TSAdd is unlikely to distance itself from Paul's to this same degree if he played in the modern era.

Flip-side, admittedly, is that we can't say for sure that Paul would be as efficient [relative to era] if he'd been born 40-50 years earlier.


It's not a perfect comparison; but I guess let me put it this way: can you think of a BETTER modern-era comparison for Oscar, ALL things [not just scoring] considered?

Wouldnt the height and post up heavy approach make his scoring functionally closer to kobe than paul?

Or dirk for a efficiency simile

I feel really good about Jokic and Robinson as 1 and 2 at this point, but picking a third guy is really tough. I feel like Dr. J, Wade, Dirk, and Kawhi all have really strong cases.

falcolombardi wrote:

trex_8063 wrote:
It's not a perfect comparison; but I guess let me put it this way: can you think of a BETTER modern-era comparison for Oscar, ALL things [not just scoring] considered?

Wouldnt the height and post up heavy approach make his scoring functionally closer to kobe than paul?

Or dirk for a efficiency simile

For scoring only.....yeah, they may be marginally closer in terms of method [and certainly closer in volume].
Though Kobe seems a bit off to me because Oscar basically blew the league away in efficiency in large part with mid-range shooting [the most INefficient shot there is].
Chris Paul has similarly managed to score efficiently while taking a high proportion [by today's standards] of mid-range shots. I can take a huge 13-year sample of Paul ('10-'22), and even in such a large sample he averaged >50% from 10-16'.......AVERAGED. 50.6% in that span [peaking at an absurd 59.2%]. From 16-23' he averaged 48.4%, peaking at an absurd 55.7%.

For Kobe, even if I use a slightly more selective group of years: just a 6-year sample of '06-'11 ['cause that's his best span shooting], he averaged 47.3% from 10-16', peaking above 50% [at 51.9%] just once. He averaged just 40.9% from 16-23' in that span, NEVER going as high 43%. His career peak in that range was actually his rookie season at 46.0% (still substantially below Paul's 13-year average), and he otherwise never even managed 44%.

So Kobe doesn't feel like a great fit, even in terms of talking about scoring only.

Dirk is maybe a better comparison [for scoring only].


But again, I never was talking about scoring only.

trex_8063 wrote:

eminence wrote:I think a primary Chris Paul comparison is selling Oscars scoring game well short, off the top of the head I believe he has the 2nd highest TSA perimeter peak (behind '16 Curry), while Chris Paul is more than a wee bit lower (392.5 vs 163.6). I believe Oscar has more seasons above 300 than any other player.

Part of this is the era played in, where TS% was so [relatively] low. Personally, I'm doubtful Oscar would be so efficient [relative to league] in a more modern context.

Unless you contend Oscar would: a) shoot something close to 60% in the mid-range [impossible in game situation over large sample, imo], or b) he would develop into an elite-level 3pt shooter in the modern era [possible, but unknown], or c) have Harden-esque knack for getting to the FT-line [possible, but unlikely given stylistic tendencies]........his TSAdd is unlikely to distance itself from Paul's to this same degree if he played in the modern era.

Flip-side, admittedly, is that we can't say for sure that Paul would be as efficient [relative to era] if he'd been born 40-50 years earlier.


It's not a perfect comparison; but I guess let me put it this way: can you think of a BETTER modern-era comparison for Oscar, ALL things [not just scoring] considered?

Honestly, this is why I can't give Oscar serious consideration yet. He just comes off as a slightly worse version of Paul. Very good scorer and tremendous passer who couldn't quite get it done in the playoffs in his prime. Only difference is that Paul's an all-time great defender and Oscar isn't.

trex_8063 wrote:

eminence wrote:I think a primary Chris Paul comparison is selling Oscars scoring game well short, off the top of the head I believe he has the 2nd highest TSA perimeter peak (behind '16 Curry), while Chris Paul is more than a wee bit lower (392.5 vs 163.6). I believe Oscar has more seasons above 300 than any other player.

Part of this is the era played in, where TS% was so [relatively] low. Personally, I'm doubtful Oscar would be so efficient [relative to league] in a more modern context.

Unless you contend Oscar would: a) shoot something close to 60% in the mid-range [impossible in game situation over large sample, imo], or b) he would develop into an elite-level 3pt shooter in the modern era [possible, but unknown], or c) have Harden-esque knack for getting to the FT-line [possible, but unlikely given stylistic tendencies]........his TSAdd is unlikely to distance itself from Paul's to this same degree if he played in the modern era.

Flip-side, admittedly, is that we can't say for sure that Paul would be as efficient [relative to era] if he'd been born 40-50 years earlier.


It's not a perfect comparison; but I guess let me put it this way: can you think of a BETTER modern-era comparison for Oscar, ALL things [not just scoring] considered?

I guess I wasn't doing any time machining in my analysis. I agree he wouldn't have that same margin today. I do think he'd be close to it through some combo of B/C. Oscar was a very strong shooter by any measure and also routinely towards the very top of the league in FTs drawn (Wilt usually the one to overshadow).

But Oscar (in prime) was always his teams leading scorer and usually by a significant margin. I prefer mid/later career LeBron and Luka as stylistic comps. Obviously each still has their own strengths (LeBron more explosive, Oscar the best shooter, okay Luka might not have a clear strength, but no shame vs that pair).

As a scorer only, I think Kawhi is probably the best modern comp. Steady handle to get wherever he wants on the floor, insane strength for size and rising to hit any shot after bumping off the defender.

Luka probably my favorite overall offensive comp.

iggymcfrack wrote:

trex_8063 wrote:

eminence wrote:I think a primary Chris Paul comparison is selling Oscars scoring game well short, off the top of the head I believe he has the 2nd highest TSA perimeter peak (behind '16 Curry), while Chris Paul is more than a wee bit lower (392.5 vs 163.6). I believe Oscar has more seasons above 300 than any other player.

Part of this is the era played in, where TS% was so [relatively] low. Personally, I'm doubtful Oscar would be so efficient [relative to league] in a more modern context.

Unless you contend Oscar would: a) shoot something close to 60% in the mid-range [impossible in game situation over large sample, imo], or b) he would develop into an elite-level 3pt shooter in the modern era [possible, but unknown], or c) have Harden-esque knack for getting to the FT-line [possible, but unlikely given stylistic tendencies]........his TSAdd is unlikely to distance itself from Paul's to this same degree if he played in the modern era.

Flip-side, admittedly, is that we can't say for sure that Paul would be as efficient [relative to era] if he'd been born 40-50 years earlier.


It's not a perfect comparison; but I guess let me put it this way: can you think of a BETTER modern-era comparison for Oscar, ALL things [not just scoring] considered?

Honestly, this is why I can't give Oscar serious consideration. He just comes off as a slightly worse version of Paul. Very good scorer, tremendous passer who couldn't quite get it done in the playoffs in his prime. Only difference is that Paul's an all-time great defender and Oscar isn't.

Oscar was more efficient for his era and more durable

I am also not sure i would call paul an all time defender even though i am high on him

Somethingh else to mention is that paul doesnt draw as many free throws

SickMother wrote:

lebron3-14-3 wrote:So, I was just wondering, is there any evidence that leads to us thinking that he could potentially have been in that kaj/shaq/wilt/bill/hakeem category, like, what separates what he did from what the guys I mentioned did.

Obviously health/longevity are what hold Walton back on the all time or career lists, but even focusing only on peak his scoring efficiency & volume just don't really stack up with other historically great bigs...

ALREADY MADE IT
Shaq 99-00: 111 TS+ | 224 TS Add
KAJ 76-77: 119 TS+ | 345 TS Add
Wilt 66-67: 129 TS+ | 442 TS Add
Duncan 02-03: 109 TS+ | 148 TS Add
Hakeem 93-94: 107 TS+ | 144 TS Add
Russell 63-64: 95 TS+ | -59 TS Add
Garnett 03-04: 106 TS+ | 113 TS Add
Giannis 20-21: 111 TS+ | 167 TS Add

FUTURE CONTENDERS
Walton 76-77: 110 TS+ | 113 TS Add
Admiral 94-95: 111 TS+ | 219 TS Add
Connie 67-68: 124 TS+ | 359 TS Add
Jokic 21-22: 117 TS+ | 287 TS Add
Pettit 58-59: 114 TS+ | 251 TS Add
Dirk 05-06: 110 TS+ | 194 TS Add
Moses 82-83: 109 TS+ | 153 TS Add
Ewing 89-90: 112 TS+ | 246 TS Add
Alonzo 99-00: 114 TS+ | 212 TS Add
Willis 68-69: 114 TS+ | 219 TS Add
Dwight 08-09: 110 TS+ | 151 TS Add
Embiid 21-22: 109 TS+ | 169 TS Add

Now of course scoring isn't everything, and Walton is probably something like a Top 10 passer & defender among these 20 mostly centers, so that helps his case some along with the hardware & leading his team to the top of the mountain, but for me he's at best 5th on that future contenders list.

Walton really is such a fascinating player because of his injury issues, brief peak, and extraordinary overall skillset, but at the end of the day, scoring does matter quite a bit and I think Walton was in an ideal ceiling-raiser situation in Portland.

While his passing and D are incredibly valuable in any situation, having the ability to be a go-to scorer in the postseason I think is probably rarer than almost anything else and Walton doesn't appear to have that ability or even to be anywhere close. With that being said, the reason I haven't voted for Walton largely comes down to injury/sample size issues.