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Better player

I'd lean Lillard who I think is just a more dynamic player and can better put a team on his back. But very closely is Jimmy Buckets

Jimmy Butler 21 PPG, 47% FG, 31% from 3, 59% True shooting, 6 RBs, 5.5 Assists, 2 steals, 2 TOVs, 23.8 PER, WS 58, Vorp 26,


Dame 27 PPG, 44% FG, 38% 3, 60% true shooting, 4 RBs, 7 assists, 1 steal, 3 TOs, 24.6 PER, WS 66, VORP 32.3

I’d probably lean towards Lillard due to durabilty. Even if durabilty wasn’t a factor Dame may be marginally better.

I go Jimmy. If I am just focused on putting a competitive team together that makes the PS and sells tickets (but don't really care about winning it, all that much).

Dame is the more popular player, he has much better durability, and he is a better floor-raiser during the RS. Decent roster-building means you will consistently have decently elite offense too.

However, I pick Jimmy because I think Dame has some serious resilience issues in the PS, and I do not love the idea of him as a #1 option. Lillard has been rather disappointing in the PS compared to his RS exploits.

For example, it doesn't include the 2020 or 21 PS, but for his career Damian Lillard had a -0.8 PIPM for his career. Yes, you read that right, that's a negative alright.

It's not even for his career that he has been an utter disappointment. Dame from 2017-2019 in the PS, scores 24. 2 pts/75 at -0.1 PS adj TS% (below average efficiency). You know who has a better 3 yr scoring peak...Kevin Garnett, had a 3 yr PS peak of 24.5 pts/75 at 0.2 PS adjTS%, and KG gets a lot of flack for not being able to be a go to option on offense in the PS. Lillard's whole game is based around scoring and creation for others, because he is a negative defensively.

Now going back to my point with Lillard, in the RS he has a 6.4 obpm and in the PS a 4.3 obpm, a -2.1 dropoff which is HUGE (2016-19). There is literally not another star in history who comes close to losing as much value. The next biggest dropoff is by David Robinson at -1.5 and then James Harden at -1.4 (before the 2020 PS) who also get a bunch of flack for PS play.

From 2015-2019, Damian Lillard has a -2.4 PIPM... so he is quite literally a negative on the floor. Even his 2019 playoff run where Lillard "took another step," he had a 0.33 PIPM, so still not very good.

From 2016-2020, here is what Lillard looks like from the RS to PS
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Lillard's best attribute is supposed to be his scoring and from 2018-2020 Damian Lillard Playoffs Profile:
23.2
PTS/75 -
5.4 AST/75 -
(-0.1) rTS%


I don't love Jimmy as a #1 option either (although he will surprise me from time to time), however I think his play with Joel Embiid, and Karl Towns gives me faith in him being a 1b or #2 option. He is anywhere from an all-time defender at the SG position in 15 to being around all-defense level in 21. Jimmy is a smart off-ball player, and really gets out in transition, has a low time of possession, cuts well, and just generally finds a way to add value without holding on to the ball.

Jimmy Butler's 3-year peaks in value metrics also just come out much stronger than Dame, because what he does from the RS sticks much better come PS time.

Butler PS Peaks during this span

3-year LEBRON: 4.02 (18-20)
3-year AuPM: 3.7 (18-20)
3-year Backpicks BPM: 5 (18-20)
3-year PS On/Off: 18.8 in 830 MP from 17-19. He also has a 16.5 On/Off from 18-20 in 1397 minutes played.

15-19 PS RAPM: 2.73

Lillard PS Peaks during this span

3-year LEBRON: 0.61 (18-20)
3-year AuPM: 2.8 (19-21) or 1.8 (14-16)
3-year Backpicks BPM: 4.6 (19-21) or 2.8 (14-16/18-20)
3-year PS On/Off: 8.1 (14-16) and (19-21)

15-19 PS RAPM: -1.86

Butler consistently has much stronger on/off in the PS, and with the roles he was tasked with playing during this period, I think it is a good indication he was more impactful. The argument for Dame to me would have to be that if you made him a #2 option, he would immensely benefit from it and add more value than Jimmy, but I am pessimistic he would make such giant leaps.

Lillard's playoff performance needs a little context. The sample size (nine series since 2016) means that the particular matchups strongly influence his numbers. The TL;DR summary is that Lillard has faced substantially stronger than average playoff opponents.

That said, pointing out the decline in his numbers is totally valid. It's fair and accurate to say Lillard has slightly underperformed in the playoffs relative to his regular season success. And everyone faces tough opponents; that's basically the point of the playoffs. I do think it's also fair to say Lillard's suffered far more from opponent quality than the average player though.

Butler's actually a pretty interesting comparison; he's also faced a lot of great playoff teams in this period, but that's balanced by his also facing multiple teams worse than anyone Lillard's ever matched against. And, most telling, his numbers suffer against the elite opponents, just as Lillard's do.

Lillard's nine series break down to:

Four series against finals teams (2016, 2017, and 2019 Warriors, 2020 Lakers). Two NBA champions and all of these exceptional defensive teams. The Blazers were badly overmatched in all of these series and Lillard was in general not as effective.

Four series against good teams (2016 Clippers, 2019 OKC, 2019 and 2020 Nuggets. SRS: 6th, 6th, 7th, 9th): Lillard generally played well in these and the Blazers went 3-1.

One series against the 2018 Pelicans, just a decent team (SRS 12, although they came on strong late in the year). This was a disastrous series in which Lillard badly struggled and the Blazers were swept. It's the one true black mark on Lillard's playoff performance, and he deserves a lot of the blame here. On the other hand, the problems were in part related to the Blazers' scheme. And in any case this one particular bad week has a disproportionate effect on dragging down his playoff numbers.

Of course there's also much more nuance than I can capture here. For one thing, it's not quite so simple as that breakdown; Lillard was decent in some of the series against elite opponents (e.g. Lakers) and not incredible against some of the others (2019 Denver). Another factor that works against Lillard is that the Blazers were relatively fortunate in catching playoff opponents as they suffered with injuries. On the other hand, one thing potentially working in Lillard's favor is that the Stottsball offense used by the Blazers in this period, in which a huge amount of pressure was put on Lillard (and McCollum) to make something happen, may not have been particularly resilient in the playoffs. We've yet to see playoffs Lillard in another scheme.

Red Robot wrote:Lillard's playoff performance needs a little context. The sample size (nine series since 2016) means that the particular matchups strongly influence his numbers. The TL;DR summary is that Lillard has faced substantially stronger than average playoff opponents.

That said, pointing out the decline in his numbers is totally valid. It's fair and accurate to say Lillard has slightly underperformed in the playoffs relative to his regular season success. And everyone faces tough opponents; that's basically the point of the playoffs. I do think it's also fair to say Lillard's suffered far more from opponent quality than the average player though.

Butler's actually a pretty interesting comparison; he's also faced a lot of great playoff teams in this period, but that's balanced by his also facing multiple teams worse than anyone Lillard's ever matched against. And, most telling, his numbers suffer against the elite opponents, just as Lillard's do.

Lillard's nine series break down to:

Four series against finals teams (2016, 2017, and 2019 Warriors, 2020 Lakers). Two NBA champions and all of these exceptional defensive teams. The Blazers were badly overmatched in all of these series and Lillard was in general not as effective.

Four series against good teams (2016 Clippers, 2019 OKC, 2019 and 2020 Nuggets. SRS: 6, 6, 7, 9): Lillard generally played well in these and the Blazers went 3-1.

One series against the 2018 Pelicans, just a decent team (SRS 12, although they came on strong late in the year). This was a disastrous series in which Lillard badly struggled and the Blazers were swept. It's the one true black mark on Lillard's playoff performance, and he deserves a lot of the blame here. On the other hand, the problems were in part related to the Blazers' scheme. And in any case this one particular bad week has a disproportionate effect on dragging down his playoff numbers.

Of course there's also much more nuance than I can capture here. For one thing, it's not quite so simple as that breakdown; Lillard was decent in some of the series against elite opponents (e.g. Lakers) and not incredible against some of the others (2019 Denver). Another factor that works against Lillard is that the Blazers were relatively fortunate in catching playoff opponents as they suffered with injuries. On the other hand, one thing potentially working in Lillard's favor is that the Stottsball offense used by the Blazers in this period, in which a huge amount of pressure was put on Lillard (and McCollum) to make something happen, may not have been particularly resilient in the playoffs. We've yet to see playoffs Lillard in another scheme.

Butler faced just as many title contending teams.

2018: Houston Rockets
2019: Toronto Raptors
2020: Los Angeles Lakers
2021: Milwaukee Bucks
2022: Boston Celtics

Where are you getting your numbers?

2020 Denver: 2.48 SRS
2019 OKC: 3.56 SRS
2019 Nuggets: 4.16 SRS
2016 Clippers: 4.13 SRS [CP3 missed 2 games in series]

These are all decent teams but not teams you expect to make deep playoff runs. The thing is, Lillard on-court from 2015-2020 is only +3.8 Points/100 which isn't exactly a world beater. The difference between Lillard and Butler has been Butler's routinely elevating or at the least, keeping his impact into the post-season while Lillard hasn't shown consistency in that regard.

Colbinii wrote:Butler faced just as many title contending teams.

2018: Houston Rockets
2019: Toronto Raptors
2020: Los Angeles Lakers
2021: Milwaukee Bucks
2022: Boston Celtics

Yes, but my point was that he's also faced more just ok teams. The average quality of his playoff opponents is lower and the proportion of elite opponents is lower.

Also, this was not intended to be a criticism of Butler, who should be recognized for his playoff success. I brought him back in to the discussion to show that even a player who made deep playoff runs and regularly faced strong teams could nonetheless have an easier overall set of matchups. I would imagine that Butler has probably also had a tougher-than-average slate of playoff opponents.

I'm just suggesting Lillard's playoff drop-off is not as severe as the noncontextualized numbers indicate.

Colbinii wrote:Where are you getting your numbers?

2020 Denver: 2.48 SRS
2019 OKC: 3.56 SRS
2019 Nuggets: 4.16 SRS
2016 Clippers: 4.13 SRS [CP3 missed 2 games in series]

I listed SRS ranks, not values, which was probably a poor choice. I've edited to make that clear.

The point stands when you compare these to Butler's matchups like Atlanta 1.55, Indiana 1.63, and Brooklyn -0.4

Red Robot wrote:

Colbinii wrote:Butler faced just as many title contending teams.

2018: Houston Rockets
2019: Toronto Raptors
2020: Los Angeles Lakers
2021: Milwaukee Bucks
2022: Boston Celtics

Yes, but my point was that he's also faced more just ok teams. The average quality of his playoff opponents is lower and the proportion of elite opponents is lower.

Also, this was not intended to be a criticism of Butler, who should be recognized for his playoff success. I brought him back in to the discussion to show that even a player who made deep playoff runs and regularly faced strong teams could nonetheless have an easier overall set of matchups. I would imagine that Butler has probably also had a tougher-than-average slate of playoff opponents.

I'm just suggesting Lillard's playoff drop-off is not as severe as the noncontextualized numbers indicate.

Colbinii wrote:Where are you getting your numbers?

2020 Denver: 2.48 SRS
2019 OKC: 3.56 SRS
2019 Nuggets: 4.16 SRS
2016 Clippers: 4.13 SRS [CP3 missed 2 games in series]

I listed SRS ranks, not values, which was probably a poor choice. I've edited to make that clear.

The point stands when you compare these to Butler's matchups like Atlanta 1.55, Indiana 1.63, and Brooklyn -0.4

Context is always important and often times looking simply at APM and other numbers as some people do here misses the bigger picture.

Red Robot wrote:

Colbinii wrote:Butler faced just as many title contending teams.

2018: Houston Rockets
2019: Toronto Raptors
2020: Los Angeles Lakers
2021: Milwaukee Bucks
2022: Boston Celtics

Yes, but my point was that he's also faced more just ok teams. The average quality of his playoff opponents is lower and the proportion of elite opponents is lower.

Also, this was not intended to be a criticism of Butler, who should be recognized for his playoff success. I brought him back in to the discussion to show that even a player who made deep playoff runs and regularly faced strong teams could nonetheless have an easier overall set of matchups. I would imagine that Butler has probably also had a tougher-than-average slate of playoff opponents.

I'm just suggesting Lillard's playoff drop-off is not as severe as the noncontextualized numbers indicate.

Colbinii wrote:Where are you getting your numbers?

2020 Denver: 2.48 SRS
2019 OKC: 3.56 SRS
2019 Nuggets: 4.16 SRS
2016 Clippers: 4.13 SRS [CP3 missed 2 games in series]

I listed SRS ranks, not values, which was probably a poor choice. I've edited to make that clear.

The point stands when you compare these to Butler's matchups like Atlanta 1.55, Indiana 1.63, and Brooklyn -0.4

Sure thing, but when you look at how these guys played against their comp (in the timespan asked about), I still am not sure if my analysis is greatly different.

Jimmy Butler versus Houston in 18

Net On/Off: +19

Butler vs Raptors in 19

Net On/Off: +26.1

Butler vs Lakers in 20

Net On/Off: +15.8

Butler vs Milwaukee in 21

Net On/Off: (-31.7)

Butler vs. Celtics in 22

Net On/Off: +4.4


Lillard versus Clippers in 16

Net On/Off: (-8.1)

Lillard versus Warriors in 16

Net On/Off: (-14.3)

Lillard versus Warriors in 17

Net On/Off: (-41.3)

Lillard versus OKC in 19

Net On/Off: 44.2

Lillard versus Nuggets in 19

Net On/Of: (-11)

Lillard versus Warriors in 19

Net On/Off: (-26.8)

Lillard versus Lakers in 20

Net On/Off: (-9.5)

Lillard versus Nuggets in 21

Net On/Off: 43.8

Overall these numbers still don't instill great confidence in me that Lillard is that productive even against good teams (or in particular good defenses).

I wouldn't call OKC or the Nuggets good defenses honestly, which are when you see his on/off spike. TBH, I get why Lillard might have resiliency issues, because he doesn't have much of an inbetween game or mid-range; it is basically a rim attempt, 3, or foul drawn for him to get his points, and in this way I think of him as a lesser James Harden, which is still good, but someone I can live without if the player I am comparing to is Jimmy Butler.

I'm not at all shocked at how close this is. I expected this from the start. It's interesting to see.