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How many years of 80's Kareem would you take over Peak Draymond?

1980-86 at least

80-82 seems more like a given to me but Draymond is one of the hardest players to try and draw accurate impact for. 83-86 would all have arguments but Kareem's rebounding and defense started declining to such a degree that maybe Draymond's defense and passing is enough to cover it. It sort of comes down to whether a team needs Kareem's scoring more than what Draymond offers.

1980-86

Cavsfansince84 wrote:80-82 seems more like a given to me but Draymond is one of the hardest players to try and draw accurate impact for. 83-86 would all have arguments but Kareem's rebounding and defense started declining to such a degree that maybe Draymond's defense and passing is enough to cover it. It sort of comes down to whether a team needs Kareem's scoring more than what Draymond offers.

I often wonder about this, Kareem's rebounding. He was playing alongside Magic and Worthy. His offensive rebounding didn't really tail off all that much compared to the earliest days it's recorded. 74-78, he was an 8.5% ORB guy, but 79-89, he was a 7.3% guy and was 7.4, 6.1 and 7.3% over his last three seasons, right? His defensive rebounding started to drop off immediately after Magic was drafted.

(EDIT to Add: 83 is also his first season under 35 mpg, so if you aren't adjusting for minutes/possessions, then the drop-off looks worse than it actually was)

Just some food for thought.

tsherkin wrote:
I often wonder about this, Kareem's rebounding. He was playing alongside Magic and Worthy. His offensive rebounding didn't really tail off all that much compared to the earliest days it's recorded. 74-78, he was an 8.5% ORB guy, but 79-89, he was a 7.3% guy and was 7.4, 6.1 and 7.3% over his last three seasons, right? His defensive rebounding started to drop off immediately after Magic was drafted.

(EDIT to Add: 83 is also his first season under 35 mpg, so if you aren't adjusting for minutes/possessions, then the drop-off looks worse than it actually was)

Just some food for thought.

It's fair to bring up Magic's impact on Kareem's #'s. His rebounding may not have been quite as bad as his rpg and trb% suggests though I think his mobility had definitely dropped.

Cavsfansince84 wrote:

tsherkin wrote:
I often wonder about this, Kareem's rebounding. He was playing alongside Magic and Worthy. His offensive rebounding didn't really tail off all that much compared to the earliest days it's recorded. 74-78, he was an 8.5% ORB guy, but 79-89, he was a 7.3% guy and was 7.4, 6.1 and 7.3% over his last three seasons, right? His defensive rebounding started to drop off immediately after Magic was drafted.

(EDIT to Add: 83 is also his first season under 35 mpg, so if you aren't adjusting for minutes/possessions, then the drop-off looks worse than it actually was)

Just some food for thought.

It's fair to bring up Magic's impact on Kareem's #'s. His rebounding may not have been quite as bad as his rpg and trb% suggests though I think his mobility had definitely dropped.

He definitely didn't lose the ability to grab defensive rebounds, it was a function of the scheme. However, if he had been tasked with grabbing more boards it's probable he wouldn't have had the motor to do as much on offense or defense, so I think taking it at face value is fine. He optimized his play for the situation he was in.

As for the question, it depends a lot on what you need for a team. On the current Warriors Draymond is easily better, but on average if you have no idea what team each player ends up on? I would say 80-83 Kareem, and from 83-86 it's close but I would probably give the edge to Draymond.

Cavsfansince84 wrote: It's fair to bring up Magic's impact on Kareem's #'s. His rebounding may not have been quite as bad as his rpg and trb% suggests though I think his mobility had definitely dropped.

Yeah, there's a little decline, I'm sure, but like I said, the last decade of his career, his offensive rebounding is quite similar. Defensive rebounding is less about mobility and more about position, and it dropped off specifically and immediately in 79-80 (as far as DRB%). And DRB% isn't usually the one to go too much with age, it's usually more the offensive rebounding that does that. Like, a little decline, sure, but he went from a 26, 27% DRB guy to 22% overnight, and just whittled down from there. And then yeah, the MPG dropped off sharply, so the raw per-game averages dipped as well.

You see it in 84 and later in his BLK%, that's for sure, but again, not so much in his ORB%.

Obviously, watching him, you can see the difference and all that, but yeah.

tsherkin wrote:

Cavsfansince84 wrote: It's fair to bring up Magic's impact on Kareem's #'s. His rebounding may not have been quite as bad as his rpg and trb% suggests though I think his mobility had definitely dropped.

Yeah, there's a little decline, I'm sure, but like I said, the last decade of his career, his offensive rebounding is quite similar. Defensive rebounding is less about mobility and more about position, and it dropped off specifically and immediately in 79-80 (as far as DRB%). And DRB% isn't usually the one to go too much with age, it's usually more the offensive rebounding that does that. Like, a little decline, sure, but he went from a 26, 27% DRB guy to 22% overnight, and just whittled down from there. And then yeah, the MPG dropped off sharply, so the raw per-game averages dipped as well.

You see it in 84 and later in his BLK%, that's for sure, but again, not so much in his ORB%.

Obviously, watching him, you can see the difference and all that, but yeah.

Well, part of that is Kareem was 7-2 with long arms. So if he's near the basket he's going to be able to get tip ins and put backs on the offensive end. Def is about positioning but also requires being able to react and get into position quickly at times. tbh, I'm not that sold on Kareem's rebounding in his prime either. Was he a good rebounder? I would say yes. Was he a great one at his position? I'd lean towards no. So its not just a matter of his decline but how I view him overall at his position from 82 on or w/e. Also keeping in mind that lower mpg generally means more effort a guy can give while on the court.

Cavsfansince84 wrote: Well, part of that is Kareem was 7-2 with long arms. So if he's near the basket he's going to be able to get tip ins and put backs on the offensive end. Def is about positioning but also requires being able to react and get into position quickly at times. tbh, I'm not that sold on Kareem's rebounding in his prime either. Was he a good rebounder? I would say yes. Was he a great one at his position? I'd lean towards no. So its not just a matter of his decline but how I view him overall at his position from 82 on or w/e. Also keeping in mind that lower mpg generally means more effort a guy can give while on the court.

Sure. And we can quibble over the little bits the entire time, my point was mostly that I was debating the idea that his rebounding did actually decline. It didn't, really, he was just competing with other rebounders because there are diminishing returns on the defensive glass. There were other elements of decline in play by that point, that's pretty obvious to anyone who saw him a little earlier and then during that time frame, for sure.

Was he a great rebounder? Not for most of his career, though in the 70s he had a couple of seasons to look at, and much of his youth is lost to the pre-ORB years, right? But he cracked out at least one 30%+ DRB season (76, the year he also led the league in RPG), and he was a better (but not elite) offensive rebounder pre-Magic. Never a 20% TRB guy (19.6% in 76, though), so just from a strictly comparative point of view, we know he was worse than a lot of the more dominant rebounders. Dwight, for example, is a career 21.1% TRB guy and is a better offensive rebounder now than Kareem ever was, even in his late 30s, and has 7 seasons at or above 30% DRB. Never an ORB% under 10%, 12.2% on his career... and he never led the league in ORB%. Mutombo, same thing. 11.9% ORB, 26.2% DRB, 19.1% TRB on his career. Five seasons of 20%+ TRB, led the league with 13.3% ORB one year. Like Dwight, twice led the league in DRB%. Led the league in RPG a couple times. Dwight did it 5 times.

Shaq was lazy, and still posted 20%+ TRB as a rookie, 11.7% ORB on his career, only under 10% ORB in his final two seasons. He and pre-Magic Kareem are similar in terms of their DRB%, which is where Shaq tended to be lazy as a rebounder. Bit of a different cast compared to Mutombo and Howard, since neither of those guys were scorers of consequence like Kareem. Olajuwon, led the league with 16.9% ORB as a rookie, career 10.3%. >10% through 93, then < 10% from 94 forward. Led the league in DRB% in 89 and 90, but never a 30% DRB guy and never a 20% TRB guy. Declined as his scoring volume rose. D-Rob was shockingly up and down as an offensive rebounder, also never a 30% DRB guy and only a 20% TRB guy in his 6-game injured season. He was disappointing on the glass but still better than Kareem, who was an Alonzo Mourning-level rebounder on the balance of his career. We know Russell and Wilt were elite rebounders. Obviously, it's tougher to do when you're scoring in volume, but yeah.

Anyway, probably more than was necessary; got off down a rabbit hole, heh.

I'd definitely take 1980:83 Kareem over any version of Green. I think 1984-86 is more arguable with Kareem still having absolutely unstoppable offense, but regressed defensive impact. Anything after 1986 is a clear Green victory.

tsherkin wrote:
Sure. And we can quibble over the little bits the entire time, my point was mostly that I was debating the idea that his rebounding did actually decline. It didn't, really, he was just competing with other rebounders because there are diminishing returns on the defensive glass. There were other elements of decline in play by that point, that's pretty obvious to anyone who saw him a little earlier and then during that time frame, for sure.

Was he a great rebounder? Not for most of his career, though in the 70s he had a couple of seasons to look at, and much of his youth is lost to the pre-ORB years, right? But he cracked out at least one 30%+ DRB season (76, the year he also led the league in RPG), and he was a better (but not elite) offensive rebounder pre-Magic. Never a 20% TRB guy (19.6% in 76, though), so just from a strictly comparative point of view, we know he was worse than a lot of the more dominant rebounders. Dwight, for example, is a career 21.1% TRB guy and is a better offensive rebounder now than Kareem ever was, even in his late 30s, and has 7 seasons at or above 30% DRB. Never an ORB% under 10%, 12.2% on his career... and he never led the league in ORB%. Mutombo, same thing. 11.9% ORB, 26.2% DRB, 19.1% TRB on his career. Five seasons of 20%+ TRB, led the league with 13.3% ORB one year. Like Dwight, twice led the league in DRB%. Led the league in RPG a couple times. Dwight did it 5 times.

Right but I mean honestly that is mostly to me just Magic being among the best rebounding guards of all time and maybe Rambis. More holistically I would just be looking at how good of a rebounder I think Kareem was from 83-86 compared to most other centers as well as defensively relative to Draymond.

Cavsfansince84 wrote:
Right but I mean honestly that is mostly to me just Magic being among the best rebounding guards of all time.

Magic's relevance is my specific contention for the decline in Kareem's DRB%, yes.

Anyway, yeah. A little tough to specifically evaluate Kareem's total value as a rebounder 83-86, but I suspect he was better than his raw RPG indicates, and non-elite.

I think it depends on how much impact on d you think Kareem was having those years. I mean was he still a high impact defender after the early 80s? I doubt it. Kareem was still pretty good playoff performer up until about 86 though, so his offense may have been good enough regardless up to that year.

1980-85 no brainer Kareem. Must be August.

80 81 82 83 are all clear MVP level to me so id have him over Draymond then I’d prolly say 84 85 86 and MAYBE 87 are on the same tier (maybe better not sure).

tsherkin wrote:

Cavsfansince84 wrote:
Right but I mean honestly that is mostly to me just Magic being among the best rebounding guards of all time.

Magic's relevance is my specific contention for the decline in Kareem's DRB%, yes.

Anyway, yeah. A little tough to specifically evaluate Kareem's total value as a rebounder 83-86, but I suspect he was better than his raw RPG indicates, and non-elite.

There was an interview in the early 80's where Pat Riley indicated that he wanted Magic to get as many defensive rebounds as possible. Thus he wouldn't get upset if Kareem went for a block even if it left him out of position for the defensive rebound. His rationale is that he wanted the Lakers (in the height of Showtime) to run as much as possible to get as many easy buckets as possible. If Magic got the rebound, he could immediately start pushing the fast break while it would take longer if Kareem (or anyone not named Magic) got the rebound because they would need to complete the outlet pass to Magic before the break could effectively start. I remember at the time when I listened to that interview that it must have been music to Kareem's ears since rebounding wasn't exactly his forte to begin with.

Samurai wrote:There was an interview in the early 80's where Pat Riley indicated that he wanted Magic to get as many defensive rebounds as possible. Thus he wouldn't get upset if Kareem went for a block even if it left him out of position for the defensive rebound. His rationale is that he wanted the Lakers (in the height of Showtime) to run as much as possible to get as many easy buckets as possible. If Magic got the rebound, he could immediately start pushing the fast break while it would take longer if Kareem (or anyone not named Magic) got the rebound because they would need to complete the outlet pass to Magic before the break could effectively start. I remember at the time when I listened to that interview that it must have been music to Kareem's ears since rebounding wasn't exactly his forte to begin with.

Yeah, I mean it was a sound strategy. You've covered why rather neatly, so I won't reiterate, but yeah, definitely a good move for LA.