Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #17 - 1976-77 Bill Walton

[LA Bird]

RealGM Greatest Peaks List (2022)
1. 1990-91 Michael Jordan
2. 2012-13 LeBron James
3. 1999-00 Shaquille O'Neal
4. 1976-77 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
5. 1966-67 Wilt Chamberlain
6. 2002-03 Tim Duncan
7. 1993-94 Hakeem Olajuwon
8. 1963-64 Bill Russell
9. 1985-86 Larry Bird
10. 1986-87 Magic Johnson
11. 2016-17 Stephen Curry
12. 2003-04 Kevin Garnett
13. 2020-21 Giannis Antetokounmpo
14. 1963-64 Oscar Robertson
15. 1965-66 Jerry West
16. 2021-22 Nikola Jokic
17. ?

Spoiler:

Please vote for your 3 highest player peaks and at least one line of reasoning for each of them.

Vote example 1
1. 1991 Jordan: Explanation
2. 2013 LeBron: Explanation
3. 2000 Shaq: Explanation

In addition, you can also list other peak season candidates from those three players. This extra step is entirely optional

Vote example 2
1. 1991 Jordan: Explanation
(1990 Jordan)
2. 2013 LeBron: Explanation
(2012 LeBron)
(2009 LeBron)
3. 2000 Shaq: Explanation

You can visit the project thread for further information on why this makes a difference and how the votes will be counted at the end of the round.

Voting for this round will close on Sunday August 14, 9am ET.

[falcolombardi]

Some names i think should be in everyone minds already

Mikan
Wade
Walton
Kobe
Dirk
Nash
Paul
Moses
Julius
Kawhi

[AEnigma]

At least there is a reasonably fair chance that Jokic placement ages well.

1. 1976-77 Bill Walton
I think Walton was a brilliant defender with a better intuitive understanding of the game than David Robinson as the next main big, and a close to ideal team hub on offence, similarly to an extent well beyond David Robinson (even though yes David Robinson has a fair bit more to offer as a scorer). Relative to his era, Walton is of course a clearer standout, but that is true for most old players. And I do value proving your ability to bring a team to a title. Hypotheticals are nice, but I know Bill Walton could win a title with the 1977 Trail Blazers, I think there are substantial indicators he would have repeated in 1978, and there is nothing in David Robinson’s history that makes me similarly confident he could do the same. Further criticisms taken from past projects available here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2216962&start=40#p100789867

Anyway, continues to be odd that Walton’s peak relative to Kareem could be viewed of an inverse with Duncan and Garnett where Walton was the one who won the title, yet the gap in peak placement is bigger (and growing) and the Walton votes are fewer. Not saying it is one of those dreaded “inconsistencies” — he did miss games and it was a short peak without much of a real sample — but just a little disappointing as one of his voters to see what had been pretty much the consensus “next” peak (finished either 12th or 13th in each of the prior projects) after those near unanimous top guys suddenly fall down the board, without any of the impact-based criticisms that we see with Erving.

2. Kobe Bryant a.) 2008 b.) 2009
Kobe I think is an interesting profile. In terms of raw value to his team, he never really hit the same heights as Dwyane Wade. But I think Wade is a lot more innately limiting in building a championship team; deserves his due for the 2006 playoff run, certainly, but I personally am not just gunning for the best individual playoff runs. Although I do make note of them. Kobe seems to fit a little more naturally with other passers and non-spacers and can anchor strong title teams and playoff offences, so giving him the advantage.

3. Dwyane Wade a.) 2009 b.) 2010 c.) 2006
Wade’s scoring resilience at high volume coupled with elite guard defence and extreme creation rates put him at a level of two-way impact few of his size ever reached (if we are strict about height, potentially none ever did). I think his game was marginally more complete later, but 2006 is pretty close and ended in a title, so no qualms if that is the year which is ultimately selected. Fit concerns lower him below Kobe for me, and I go back and forth versus Kawhi for similar reasons, but even on a random team I would take him over almost every other perimetre player. Like Julius Erving, there was no real way to deny his drives, but Erving was a lesser passer and ballhandler and only a disputably better defender while playing in an era more structurally forgiving of those limitations.

Guards: Kobe -> Wade -> Nash -> Frazier/Paul/Harden/Penny -> Deron?

Wings/Forwards: Kawhi -> Davis -> Dirk/Durant -> Erving/McGrady/Malone?

Centres: Walton ->

[Dutchball97]

1. 1976 Julius Erving - Dr J had one of the most dominant years ever in North American pro basketball in the final year of the ABA. Where you rank him mostly depends on how good you think the ABA was towards its end. I'd say I'm probably somewhere in the middle. With the likes of Artis Gilmore, Dan Issel, Bobby Jones and George Gervin the ABA had become a serious competitor to the NBA but it didn't become on the same level just yet and since even the mid-70s NBA is generally considered as a relatively weak era, the mid-70s ABA isn't one of the strongest eras either. Overall though this is still a very complete season and it remains a fact you can only beat who is put in front of you. What especially helps him out here is the Nets roster besides Dr J himself wasn't particularly special, which is a huge contrast to the other guys I'm considering around this spot.

2. 1983 Moses Malone - Moses wasn't the best defender but in 83 he does look pretty impressive on that end, while his offense has always been strong. He's hurt somewhat by playing on a historically stacked team but it's hard to go against him winning MVP by a landslide and leading the 76ers to a dominant title. I might be somewhat influenced by winning bias here but we have rather incomplete advanced stats for the early 80s so I'd rather not put too much emphasis on Moses not having an overwhelmingly high BPM.

3. 2006 Dwyane Wade - While only coming 6th in MVP voting, I'd argue he was every bit as good as the guys above him in a year with a pretty open MVP race without a clear best player. Then in the play-offs Wade went off by leading a decent but unspectacular supporting cast to a title, while being the best player in every series including against the #2 and #3 SRS teams in the Pistons and Mavs. I'm probably a bit more skewed in this towards the post-season than most but I don't think we should underestimate just how impressive this season was due to his impact metrics not jumping off the page as much as some of the other candidates.

[Ron Swanson]

Whoops, glad Jokic got in because he would have been my pick and I forgot to vote in the last round

2005-06 Dwyane Wade: HM: 2008-09, but I'll make the argument for '06 being peak Wade. Maybe I'm in the minority, but I think post-2007 Wade already lost a bit of his explosiveness due to injuries. Probably the quickest 2-guard we had seen since Jordan, I like young Wade's two-way impact more. And going by the numbers, 2006 really was one of the most impressive offensive carry jobs ever both in the RS (+13.3 on/off) and even more so in the playoffs (+21.9).

1975-76 Julius Erving:(HM: 1980-81) Really torn over whether this was too high to put Dr. J, and this will likely be the only ABA season I vote for. But he's one of the few ABA players that didn't suffer any drop-off transitioning to the NBA, so I feel comfortable saying '76 is his peak and would have looked just as good in any league setting. Before Magic, Jordan, and Giannis he was basically the GOAT transition player. All-time postseason run (34/12/5/2/2 on 61% TS) capped off with a legendary Finals stat line (37/14/5) against a Denver team with 3 future hall-of-famers (Issel, Thompson, Jones) makes it hard to scrutinize the competition angle too much.

2016-17 Kawhi: (HM: 2018-19) Really tough between Kawhi, Kobe, and Chris Paul for the 3rd vote. To be fair, I don't believe the Spurs would have beat the Warriors even with a healthy Kawhi, but it's hard to ignore the numbers he had put up leading up to him exiting Game 1 of the WCF (27/8/4 on 67% TS, 31.5 PER, .314 WS/48). Much like Julius, it helps that we know he was capable of similar postseason runs beyond that (2014, 2019-21), so 2017 gets the nod considering how much better his defense was pre-injury, as well as it being his most complete RS (74 games, 3rd in MVP voting).

[Samurai]

1. Doctor J 1976. Yes, it was in the ABA. The final year of that league before the merger in 77 and at that point, the ABA was loaded with future Hall of Famers such as David Thompson, Artis Gilmore, George Gervin, Bobby Jones and Dan Issel. No plumbers or milkmen in that group. And Dr J put up one of the best all-around seasons ever. Led the league in scoring at 29.3 ppg. Fifth in rebounding at 11.0 rpg. Seventh in assists at 5.0 apg. Third in steal at 2.5 spg. Seventh in blocks at 1.9 bpg. Tenth in field goal percentage at .507% and sixth in 3-point % at 33%. And led the league in PER, Win Shares, Offensive Win Shares, Defensive Win Shares, WS/48, Box Plus/Minus, VORP, and Usage %. Off the top of my head, the only other player who dominated across that many aspects of the game might be 51 Mikan but we don't have any idea what his blocks or steal numbers were and I'd guess that the competition level in the 76 ABA was higher than the 51 NBA.

2. David Robinson 1994. This was primarily between the Admiral and Mikan, two great centers who played over 40 years apart. I have both over 77 Walton due to durability; Mikan played all 68 games (it was a 68 game season) and the Admiral played in 80 of 82 RS games, whereas Walton had 17 games in which he scored 0 points, grabbed 0 boards, set 0 screens and completed 0 passes. As great as he was in the other 65, that's too big a gap when we are comparing to guys that gave comparable impact for so many more minutes. While I don't think 94 was quite DRob's defensive peak and his rebounding was clearly below his peak years, he was still All Defensive 2nd team that season and it was his best offensive season. If he were better than 14th best in rebounds/game, this would have been an easier selection for me. I was set to vote for Mikan but I always struggle with how much to ding him for his era. So I flipped a coin and D-Rob won the flip! But Mikan will be my next selection.

3. George Mikan 1950. I said that he would be my next selection so here he is. Most dominant 2-way player relative to his peers of anyone left. Led the league in scoring, Win Shares and Defensive WS. Likely would have led the league in rebounds and blocks if those stats were recorded then and would have been the clear favorite for Defensive Player of the Year is such an award existed. There is no question whatsoever that he was the best of his era, more so than anyone left. In terms of in-era dominance, he has a very good case for being the GOAT. As is, he may well be the most impactful player ever, given that the 24-second rule was established largely due to Mikan's dominance and the widening of the key was dubbed "the Mikan rule". A good argument can be made that the introduction of the shot clock is the single biggest and most influential rule change since the NBA started. The question is how much do we penalize him for playing in a weaker era. This is where I would draw the line at continuing to penalize him.

[SickMother]

01 Erving 75-76: 28.7 PER | .569 TS% | 110 TS+ | 17.7 WS | .262 WS/48
01 Erving 75-76 Playoffs?!?: 32.0 PER | .610 TS% | 3.7 WS | .321 WS/48
[a peak so high the NBA absorbed a whole other league to get this guy under their banner. Doctor turned in a top tier do it all regular season, then followed it up with one of thee largest postseason efficiency increases of all time.]

02 Hawkins 67-68: 28.8 PER | .597 TS% | 124 TS+ | 17.5 WS | .273 WS/48
02 Hawkins 67-68 Playoffs?!?: 30.0 PER | .651 TS% | 4.0 WS | .310 WS/48
[for what amounts to spot #13 on my ballot I'll go with maybe thee unluckiest player in basketball history, robbed of his collegiate & early NBA career by completely spurious gambling allegations, then derailed by a knee injury which occurred amidst the ABA Championship in this very season.

but there was never any doubt Connie could ball from the outset as one of the original NYC greats at Rucker Park & being named the best high school player in the country in 1960. As for his 67-68 peak, the Hawk simply did everything. Topped the brand new ABA in PPG on monster efficiency, 2nd in the league in RPG, 3rd in the league in APG. Then took his game to a whole other level in the playoffs, hurting his knee during the Championship series & returning to lead his team to the top in heroic fashion even before Willis Reed (or Giannis) did it.

I get it, the 67-68 ABA is probably the 2nd weakest competition level to receive a vote so far besides 49-50 Mikan, but Hawkins had no alternative, it was the best league available to him due to his illegal blacklisting from the NBA & he thoroughly dominated it across the board. Also think that Connie's peak game works in any era with his mix of size, athleticism and all around skillset.]

***I have a tier break here which goes from #14 to #25 with the following seasons under consideration (in chrono order) 63-64 Oscar, 65-66 West, 82-83 Moses, 94-95 Admiral, 03-04 Garnett, 05-06 Wade, 05-06 Nowitzki, 08-09 Kobe, 16-17 Kawhi, 16-17 Durant, 20-21 Giannis and 21-22 Jokic.***

03 Kawhi 16-17: 27.6 PER | .610 TS% | 111 TS+ | 13.6 WS | .264 WS/48
03 Kawhi 16-17 Playoffs?!?: 31.5 PER | .672 TS% | 2.8 WS | .314 WS/48
[ultimately going with Kawhi for two main reasons, his elite defense as a wing defender is unique among the remaining contenders, and his postseason was shaping up as a best ever candidate with Leonard posting absolutely insane efficiency before Zaza stepped in.]

[iggymcfrack]

1. 1995/96 David Robinson- Led the league in PER in both the regular season AND postseason while anchoring the 3rd best defense in the league. Early impact metrics had him neck and neck with Michael Jordan for best player in the league. When Robinson missed the vast majority of the following season, the Spurs defense went from 3rd/29 to 29th/29. They were 9 points worse per 100 possessions. The following season when he returned, the defense improved 13 points per 100 possessions. His defensive impact vastly outpaced his box score value and you can argue that at this point in his career, he was right there with anyone else in the history of the league for most valuable defensive players. I have a hard time believing that Bill Russell ever peaked higher than David Robinson for instance since Robinson had such a strong offensive game while providing at least 95% of the same value on defense.

2. 2016/2017 Kawhi Leonard- Yes he suffered a season ending injury in the playoffs, but it was on a dirty play that could have happened to anyone and prior to that, he hadn’t been injury prone at all. In the playoffs that year, Kawhi had a 31.5 PER on .672 TS%. He had .314 WS/48 and a 14.2 BPM. All of those are all-time numbers. What’s even more impressive though is he did all that WITH some of the best wing defense of all-time. He won DPOY in 2015 and 2016 and absolutely played at that same elite level in the playoffs. He had a playoff on/off of +22.3 and led the Spurs to a huge lead over the best team of all-time in Game 1 against the Warriors in a series where they would ultimately get swept after he got hurt.

3. 2010/11 Dirk Nowitzki- In 2 strong RAPM samples, he ranked incredibly high finishing 1st overall in the NBAShotCharts site which spanned from 2010-2022 and he also ranked #3 in the 97-14 sample on Yahoo behind 2 LeBron years and one year from Tim Duncan. The Mavericks were approximately a -6 with him on the bench in both the regular season and postseason and yet, he led them to sweep Kobe and Pau in the first round and beat a superteam of Wade, Bosh, and LeBron that many thought was the best team ever established at the time.

[CharityStripe34]

Glad the Joker got on there. One of my favorite current players and the guy who will be potentially neck-and-neck with Gianni (and maybe Luka) for league dominance in the next 7-8 years. Anywho...

1. Bob Pettit (1959) : A man much forgotten in the annals of NBA lore, but whose entire career was almost one extended peak. He had an awesome season the year before, even leading the Hawks to their lone title over the vaunted Russell/Cousy Celtics. But his following year was his second MVP season with ridiculous averages of 29-16-4. He's the guy who essentially created/defined the PF position once he bulked up and added a long-distance jumpshot when mostly everyone was shooting hook-shots and set shots. 1959 he also led the league with 14.8 WS.

Honorable mention: (1958, 1962)

2. Dwyane Wade (2006): Others have noted the brilliant season Wade had with his two-way impact. I went back and forth with Jerry West and Wade and barely chose Wade over 1966 Jerry West. Probably because his brilliant run in the playoffs that resulted in a Finals win over, perhaps, a superior Dallas squad that season. 27-6-7 on over 50% from the floor and nearly 2 steals a game. He made All-NBA second team but I personally would've put him a hair ahead of Kobe Bryant (who admittedly had a Hamburger Helper squad that year). If Wade had his 2009 regular season combined with his 2006 post-season, it's arguable for the greatest 2-guard season ever.

Honorable mention: (2009, 2010)

3. Moses Malone (1983): This was super difficult deciding between Robinson and Moses but I went with Moses since this was maybe his finest season ever and most impactful, albeit on a really good roster. Demolishing everyone including a really good Bucks team and obviously a dynastic Lakers team in the Finals, outplaying Kareem soundly. Led the playoffs in win shares and upped his averages from 25-15 to 26-16 with 2 blks per game. An argument could be made that between 1979-1983 Moses was the best, or at least most dominant, player in the NBA. This season for Philly was a bit similar to the Spurs getting revenge on the Heat in 2014 after coming up short the year before, as Philly lost to the Lakers the year prior in the Finals.

Honorable mention: (1979, 1982)

Narrowly missed the cut: David Robinson (1995), Kobe Bryant (2008), Charles Barkley (1993), Nikola Jokic (2022)

[70sFan]

1. 1949/50 George Mikan
(1950/51 George Mikan)
2. 1975/76 Julius Erving
3. 1976/77 Bill Walton

Mikan is my 1st choice, because I don't see any other player reaching his level of dominance. We have to adjust that for significantly weaker competition, but still - I don't care about time machine argument. He did everything he could against the best competition he faced. Although some might view him as some kind of slow, lumbering oaf who relied heavily on his size, I don't view him that way from what I've seen. He was a very smart passer with soft shooting touch and he seemed to have a very strong defensive impact (although this one likely wouldn't translate to the same degree as his offense).

To look at prime Mikan footage, here is a small sample (by the way, you can the ball being far from round in this game, something to consider when we talk about shooting performance of these players):

Watch on YouTube

Here is another nice Mikan play that shows his high level vision as a post playmaker (one of my favorite ones):

Watch on YouTube

My second choice is peak Julius Erving. It was a close call between Julius/Walton/Admiral/Wade/Kobe, but I decided to go with the most complete season of the bunch.

A lot of people feel uncertain about Julius skillset, but I think the questions are overblown. Julius jumpshot wasn't nearly as questionable as some imply here (he wasn't a worse shooter than Wade for example). His driving game and inside finishing was GOAT level for a wing player (only behind LeBron). On top of that, he was a very versatile offensive player with strong off-ball play, nice post game and underrated passing. On top of that, he was probably the best transition defender ever (including defense).

Watch on YouTube

I think he improved notably on defensive end later in his career, but even in 1976 he was a capable defender that had a lot of value as a help defender and in transition.


Walton is at the 3rd spot here, basically strictly because of durability issues. Otherwise, I'd vote for him way earlier. He was just ultimate team player and one of the greatest defenders and rebounders ever.

HM: 2007/08 Kobe Bryant, 2008/09 Dwyane Wade, 1994/95 David Robinson

[falcolombardi]

I feel unsure about my picks and they may be subject to change later but for now i will put my same vote as last round

0
0
1-1950 George Mikan (1951)

I am far from a mikan expert so i dont claim to know this too well.

I am honestly just thinking that thus guy dominated nba basketball arguably the most out of anyone at a time and is the last player to lead a dinasty or be the best player in the world for a multi year stretch of time and not be in the list already.

Just seems like a fair spot for him tbh.

2-1977 bill walton

I was unsure how much to punish durability issues in a year wgere he was mostly healthy other wise. Which gets into philosophical territory

Are we evaluating exactlt what happened or what is more likely to happen out of 100 simulations, example 2017 kawhi is a lot less likely to get injured in the playoffs than 1977 walto. but kawhi was the one to actually get injurrd through no fault of his own

Which one deserves more penalizstion here for missing part of the playoffs? I will take the approach of "what happened" (sorrt kawhi) as unfair as it is it just makes more sense to evaluate peak years as they actually happened

That tangent aside. Walton is just one od the most impressive peaks of all time. Led a team withput stand out talent to a ring. Had monster impact signals (for what is available for the era) up there with anyone, beat great teams and has a fascinating 67'chamberlain esque profile

A all time defender who can be the center of a strong offense

3-2006 wade (2010,2009)

One of the most impressive title runs left. Took a solid but unremarkable cast (shaq was easily past his superstar prime imo) to beat two elite teams and win a ring that needed every last point, rebound and assist he got (and he got a ton of them)

I see this as a 2009 lebron-lite season tbh amd i have that one as the goat peak

[falcolombardi]

A more general question

When do you guys feel comfortable picking mikan?

He arguably has the 5th longest reign as nba best player (after kareem,russel,jordan and lebron) and is arguably the last "best in the world at a point" player left

[capfan33]

1. 77 Walton
Lack of a large sample-size makes it hard to rank Walton, like a more extreme example of CP3, but I think around here is ultimately where I'll put him. I do think he get's overrated to an extent when people talk about him essentially being Kareem's equal because he was in close to an ideal ceiling raiser situation and comparing his impact to Kareem's in 77 specifically is an apples to oranges comparison if I've ever seen one.

With that being said, his overall skillset is undeniable. Basically a less athletic Bill Russell, his defensive activity was absurd and he has a demonstrably enormous impact on that end. Combine that with being the 2nd greatest passing center ever and you get an incredibly portable, scalable and synergistic player. However, his scoring was nothing to write home about and in a situation where he needs to be the primary or even 2nd best scorer on a team I'm skeptical of his ability to meet that criteria, which does count for something. His relative lack of athleticism could also be a problem in more recent times, I have more questions about his defense in today's game than say Hakeem.

2. 1994 Robinson
Similar to KG in many ways, I ultimately have him below KG largely because I like KG's skillset and baseline impact more and think he's a bit more portable. While Robinson was an incredible regular season player and is one of the greatest athletes ever, I'm not a fan of how basic Robinson's scoring game seems to be. The empirical evidence suggests it made him very predictable and easy to gameplan against. Some of the posts regarding Robinson in the last thread reminded me of just how bad Robinson's scoring was in the playoffs, and while scoring isn't everything, it's hard to just hand-wave away how poorly Robinson's scoring seemed to translate to the playoffs. Add onto this his lack of passing/playmaking, even compared to someone like Hakeem, his scoring ability becomes even more problematic.

Moreover, his defensive impact also seemed ot have issues translating to the playoffs, and while this may not be as conclusive, the fact that one can even call into question his ace skill in a playoff atmosphere is a major issue when his playoff offense is conclusively problematic. Overall, he was an extraordinary regular season player with severe postseason limitations and with that mix a 16-20 ranking sounds about right.

3. 2009 Wade
Now the question is which perimeter player to pick because there's a bunch of them coming up. I'm not sold on this pick at all but ultimately going with Wade. I like Wade a lot because he generally seemed to be very resilient in the playoffs in his prime and played well-above his height allowed him to impact the game in very interesting ways. His incredible slashing ability and the pressure he put on defenses playing above the rim is really something for a 6-4 guard, and he was also an excellent passer/playmaker to boot. Against Kobe I like him more because of defense and againt Dr. J I just think he has a more complete and malleable skillset. But definitely could be convinced otherwise.

[ceoofkobefans]

10. 2008 Kobe Bryant

I know this is probably going to be controversial on this forum since he’s usually fringe t15 on peak lists around here (due to what seems like RS impact metrics). Most Impact metrics generally do have him around the fringe t15 range (like 13-17ish) but Kobe is one of the biggest PO risers ever. Here’s 08-10 Kobe from the RS to PO (biggest peak PO sample we have without 2 first round exits skewing results).

(Box numbers are IA/75)
RS
28.3 PTS
5.3 AST
5.8 TRB
3 TOV
+1.8 rTS
+5.3 BBR BPM (+3.9/g)
+5 BP BPM/g (+6.7/100)
+4.1 AuPM/g (+5.5/100)
+5.96 RAPTOR (+4.4/g)

PO
30.5 PTS
5.6 AST
5.8 TRB
3 TOV/75
+3.9 rTS
+7.8 BPM (+6/g)
+6.3 BP BPM/g (+8.2/100)
+4.7 AuPM/g (+6.1/100)
+8.07 RAPTOR (+6.2/g)

Here’s just 2008 since that’s his best season

RS
28.1 PTS
5.3 AST
6.1 TRB
3 TOV
+3.6 rTS
+5.8 BBR BPM (+4.5/g)
+6.1 BP BPM/g (+7.9/100)
+4.2 AuPM/g (+5.4/100)
+7.09 RAPTOR (+5.5/g)

PO
30.5 PTS
5.6 AST
5.6 TRB
3.2 TOV
+4.9 rTS
+7.4 BBR BPM (+5.9/g)
+6.7 BP BPM/g (+8.4/100)
+2.1 3yr AuPM/g (+2.6/100 this is obviously skewed by the 2 previous years)
+7.63 RAPTOR (+6.06/g)

31 IA PTS/75 on +5 rTS is absolutely insane when you consider that he’s playing in 2 center lineups with his best spacer being him and facing more gravity than anyone in nba history that’s name doesn’t start with an S. Him being able to pretty much maintain that in the PO over a 3yr stretch of finals runs against GOAT tier PO comp (same points on +4 rTS) is pretty damn good evidence for him being not only an all time PO riser but this scoring production being real for him. Him being an all time PO riser makes since because he’s arguably the best tough shot maker of all time and is a clear all time self creator which is the number 1 way for your scoring to be resilient in the PO against tougher defenses and more defensive attention. His defense was also pretty solid in 2008. He did still have a bit of a motor issue in the RS but it consistently would shoot up in the PO and this was no different in 08. He was a very good on ball defender but was also a good off ball defender (really good trapper, was the lakers’ primary communicator, and I thought his off ball awareness was improved from his past few years, although his closeout D wasn’t great which hurt his overall off ball D)

Overall i think it’s pretty fair to put Kobe in that top 10 range although I could see him at like 14ish(?) depending how high you are on others/low on him

14. 1996 David Robinson

David Robinson is another O2 D1 player with really really good impact metrics in the RS (which are inflated by his lack of a backup center) that is a clear PO dropper. Robinson is lower than KG because KG is much better off the ball and a much better passer which makes him better offensively (although Drob is a > scorer and arguably better defender). I could see him a little bit lower and I don’t like to go higher than 14 for him

15. 2009 Dwyane Wade

Dwyane Wade is arguably a t15 offensive player ever and is an elite to arguably all time great defender at his peak. He’s a t15 scorer a t20 playmaker and one of the best rim protecting guards ever. he’s held back mainly by his lack of shooting and his major on ball dominance / lack of off ball activity. I may go deeper in detail on him in the future but this is as much as I’ll say for now. I can see him at 14 or at ≈ 16

[trelos6]

17. David Robinson. 1994. Not his defensive best, but pretty close to it. And definitely his offensive peak. 29.4 pp75 at +4.9rTS%

18. Kawhi Leonard. 2016-17. He took a big step up to the offensive machine he is today. And his defence took a small step back from its stratospheric levels, but it was still there on key possessions. 29 pp75 at +5.7 rTS%

19. Kevin Durant. 2017. 28 pp75 at +10 rTS%. I know Curry was grabbing the attention, giving KD easier looks, but we don’t dock Magic for playing with Kareem, Jordan for playing with Scottie and Rodman (offensive rebounds), or Kobe for playing with Shaq.


Next 2 for tiebreakers are Kobe, Wade

[DraymondGold]

A more general question

When do you guys feel comfortable picking mikan?

He arguably has the 5th longest reign as nba best player (after kareem,russel,jordan and lebron) and is arguably the last "best in the world at a point" player left

Yeah, it's a good question. I'm not really sure... I do have serious era concerns and I'm not against doing time-machine comparisons for this kind of project, but the in-era stuff is presumably pretty dang dominant. Here's a case when having one project when everyone has different criteria can give pretty disparate results...

The only okay advanced stat we have on him is WS. We don't have WS/48 for 1949/1950/1951 (wow ) so for those we'd have to do WS/game if people prefer rate stats.

Mikan in Win Shares:
Regular Season:
Total Win Shares: 1951 3rd All time (after Kareem/Wilt), 1950 10th All time (after Kareem/Wilt/MJ), 1949 12th All Time
Does anyone catch up in Win Shares per Game? No
-94 Robinson is the next candidate in total WS (18th All time), but 1950 Mikan's 0.31 WS/Game > 1994 Robinson's 0.25 WS/Game
-14 Durant would be after Robinson in total WS (22nd all time), but 1950 Mikan's 0.31 WS/Game > 2014 Durant's 0.24 WS/Game

Playoffs:
Total Win Shares: 1949 29th all time (but fewer games), 1950 52nd all time (but fewer games).
How does playoff Mikan compare to other candidates in Win Shares per game?
-49 Mikan: 1949 0.424 WS/Game,
-50 Mikan: 0.311 WS/Game.
-76 Erving: 0.28
-54 Mikan: 0.27
-08 Paul: 0.24
-06 Dirk: 0.23
-10 Dirk: 0.23
-17 Kawhi: 0.23
-20 Davis: 0.21
-17 Durant: 0.21
-09 Kobe: 0.20
-76 Walton: 0.13

Takeaway: WS/Game is far from the most trusted stat, and I wouldn't take too much stock in it. But as the best stat we have, it puts Mikan clearly above the competition (relative to era) in both the regular season and the playoffs.

Does WOWY tell us anything? Well, he played every game from 1949-1951 and 1953-1955. In 1952, he missed 2 games, and his team lost by -2 v Celtics and -12 v Pistons. That's a change of 3.68 SRS against the Celtics (3rd in league) and a change of 19.11 SRS against the Pistons (6th/10 in league) for an average of +11.40 WOWY (with a paltry 2-game off-sample). GOAT-level stuff, but 2 games is a pretty unusably small off-sample.

...

He's obviously the most dominant player left (relative to era). So really the only question is how much we discount him for his era. Would he do worse against better (non-segregated) competition? Absolutely, but how much worse? Personally, I do give some consideration to era, so those era-considerations are enough to knock him out of this tier (e.g. Robinson/Walton/Kobe/KD), probably into the next.

[FWIW, I found this article about a 1948 game where Mikan lost against the non-all-white Globetrotters https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/16211736/when-lakers-were-minneapolis-loss-globetrotters-was-blow-segregation ]

[falcolombardi]

There are some players i am surprised are not getting any attention at all, i actually think nobody has mentioned them yet as picks

Dirk nowitsky

Steve nash

Charles barkley ( i am not as high on him but i am surprised nobody has mentioned him yet)

Dirk in particular is surprising as he is a player i expected the board to be higher on

Any theories why? I dont think is a thingh to take for granted at all than garnett is better than dirk for examplw

Dirk has the impact metrics, the portability points, the "led a ring" points, is not fragile player. Feels like he should be more seriusly considered at least on the level of moses and julius who have got votes already

I am actually convincing myself into putting dirk above wade or walton in my top 3

[falcolombardi]

A more general question

When do you guys feel comfortable picking mikan?

He arguably has the 5th longest reign as nba best player (after kareem,russel,jordan and lebron) and is arguably the last "best in the world at a point" player left

Yeah, it's a good question. I'm not really sure... I do have serious era concerns and I'm not against doing time-machine comparisons for this kind of project, but the in-era stuff is presumably pretty dang dominant. Here's a case when having one project when everyone has different criteria can give pretty disparate results...

The only okay advanced stat we have on him is WS. We don't have WS/48 for 1949/1950/1951 (wow ) so for those we'd have to do WS/game if people prefer rate stats.

Mikan in Win Shares:
Regular Season:
Total Win Shares: 1951 3rd All time (after Kareem/Wilt), 1950 10th All time (after Kareem/Wilt/MJ), 1949 12th All Time
Does anyone catch up in Win Shares per Game? No
-94 Robinson is the next candidate in total WS (18th All time), but 1950 Mikan's 0.31 WS/Game > 1994 Robinson's 0.25 WS/Game
-14 Durant would be after Robinson in total WS (22nd all time), but 1950 Mikan's 0.31 WS/Game > 2014 Durant's 0.24 WS/Game

Playoffs:
Total Win Shares: 1949 29th all time (but fewer games), 1950 52nd all time (but fewer games).
How does playoff Mikan compare to other candidates in Win Shares per game?
-49 Mikan: 1949 0.424 WS/Game,
-50 Mikan: 0.311 WS/Game.
-76 Erving: 0.28
-54 Mikan: 0.27
-08 Paul: 0.24
-06 Dirk: 0.23
-10 Dirk: 0.23
-17 Kawhi: 0.23
-20 Davis: 0.21
-17 Durant: 0.21
-09 Kobe: 0.20
-76 Walton: 0.13

Takeaway: WS/Game is far from the most trusted stat, and I wouldn't take too much stock in it. But as the best stat we have, it puts Mikan clearly above the competition (relative to era) in both the regular season and the playoffs.

Does WOWY tell us anything? Well, he played every game from 1949-1951 and 1953-1955. In 1952, he missed 2 games, and his team lost by -2 v Celtics and -12 v Pistons. That's a change of 3.68 SRS against the Celtics (3rd in league) and a change of 19.11 SRS against the Pistons (6th/10 in league) for an average of +11.40 WOWY (with a paltry 2-game off-sample). GOAT-level stuff, but 2 games is a pretty unusably small off-sample.

...

He's obviously the most dominant player left (relative to era). So really the only question is how much we discount him for his era. Would he do worse against better (non-segregated) competition? Absolutely, but how much worse? Personally, I do give some consideration to era, so those era-considerations are enough to knock him out of this tier (e.g. Robinson/Walton/Kobe/KD), probably into the next.

[FWIW, I found this article about a 1948 game where Mikan lost against the non-all-white Globetrotters https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/16211736/when-lakers-were-minneapolis-loss-globetrotters-was-blow-segregation ]

The globetrotters ar the time period were a nba/Baa level team so losing one exhibition game is not any more of a big deal than a nba champion in 1974 losing a exhibition game to an aba team imo

Also as far as i know lakers played amd won most of those exhibition games against teams like globetrotters

I think the combination of being a boxscore outlier for his era, winnimg 5 rings in 6 years and being unnanymously seen at the time as the clear best player in the league make a strong case he likely was a impact monster

Era weakness at the start of nba basketball, segregstion and the tragic loss of would be peer talents like alex groza to league ban or bob kurland to "amateur" basketball (and god knows how many great black player talents such as those im the globetrotters and rens of the era) all surely put a big handicap on him compared to other eras greats

But at some point we have to question ourselves why even have pre shot clock basketball in the project if we wont seriously consider him?

If we are gonna put every other era superstar ahead of a guy who led a 5 rings dinasty and was probablt the best player in the world for like 8 years why have him in the project at all.

At that point i think it would almost be more respectful to his legacy and era dominance to have him as a honorable mention and excluded off the project that being ranked in the 20's/30's behind a guy like clyde drexler who never came close to being the best player in the world (no disrespect to glyde who was awesome)

[iggymcfrack]

A more general question

When do you guys feel comfortable picking mikan?

He arguably has the 5th longest reign as nba best player (after kareem,russel,jordan and lebron) and is arguably the last "best in the world at a point" player left

After we run out of MVP-caliber players from more competitive eras? I can’t be more impressed with Mikan dominating what was essentially a semi-pro league than I can the genius of say Steve Nash who won back-to-back MVPs as an offensive supernova competing with the greatest athletes from around the globe. Dr. J takes a deserved hit for having his best years in the ABA and failing to replicate them after the merger, but even the ABA was light years better competition than what Mikan faced.

I guess once we start getting to clear second banana guys like Pippen I’d be OK with recognizing Mikan for at least being dominant against the competition he faced, but l’d have a hard time voting him over modern guys who had a strong case as best player in the world at the time. So probably somewhere around 30 I’d give him serious consideration.

[ardee]

1. 1977 Bill Walton

Has everyone forgotten about him? In 1977 and 1978, here's the Blazers' record with and without him:

1977 Walton healthy: 44-21
1977 Walton hurt: 5-12

1978 Walton healthy: 48-10
1978 Walton hurt: 10-14

74.7% win rate while he's healthy, and 36.5% while he's hurt. And that's over a pretty big sample size.

Quite honestly I see him on a similar level to Russell, whom I have at 9. Just incredible defensive impact, if you watch the Finals against the Sixers he has the defensive equivalent of a scorer having a 20 point quarter. The commentators were freaking out and screaming "they cannot find a way to score on Bill Walton!"

I think him and Steph are pretty debatable.

2. 2008 Kobe Bryant (HM: 2006)

I've spoken about Kobe's raw impact quite a bit in different threads. In this season specifically, he led the Lakers to a 7.34 SRS with just 27 games of Pau and 35 games of Bynum. Odom was the only other player on that team who could generate much of his own offense. The rest of the rotation consisting of Fisher, Vladimir Radmanovic, Farmar, Vujacic and Turiaf doesn't exactly scream a 7.3 SRS cast.

On top of that, he put together a Jordan-esque Playoff run. 32-6-6 on 60% TS against 3 50 win teams in the Western conference, including a 6.9 SRS Jazz team and a -5.7 defensively Spurs team. His Finals weren't anything to write home about but honestly were not any worse than Jordan against similarly good defensive teams (the '93 Knicks for example).

3. 2009 Dwyane Wade (HM: 2006)

Him and Kobe at their peaks are fairly close as players. I do think Kobe was more impactful though, when you look at the 2006 Lakers vs the 2009 Heat by SRS given the similar supporting casts. Wade was likely better defensively but that's canceled out by Kobe's superior portability given shooting and off-ball play.