AEnigma wrote:1. Kobe Bryanta.) 2008 b.) 2009 My personal #15 peak. Although I find it fun to annoy his superfans, they are probably right in that the RealGM trend to downgrade him out of the top twenty peaks is pretty reactionary and often based in a misapplication of “analytics.” He is an all-time scorer with flexible range and exceptional diversity, a pretty good defender for his position and offensive load (overrated by fans, casuals, and accolades, yes, but we need not flip the complete opposite direction in response), an elite positional passer who absolutely had his personal creation rates schematically and stylistically undersold throughout his prime, and one of the great playoff resilience cases at his peak.
MyUniBroDavis wrote:So with Kobe for me it’s more so I think he translates better to other eras than his own, or a player of his strengths translates better to other eras than his own.
I think the 2000s were the worst time as a high volume elite iso 1v1 perimeter player.
Defining it as 250+ isolations
05-10
2005 Of 22 players, he ranked 2nd
2006 Of 36 players, he ranked 12th
2007 Of 27 players, he ranked 1st
2008 Of 23 players, he ranked 2nd
2009 Of 33 players, he ranked 11th
2010 Of 29 players, he ranked 9th
Kobes volume was usually somewhere from 700-1000, so defining high volume as 250+ would be a bit unfair in terms of respecting his volume although that’s obvious
Overall, in regards to limiting it to high volume scorers, while he’s not first every year or anything this does end up as quite elite. Randoms or people you maybe wouldn’t expect end up being far higher than expected even with these restrictions on.
Under similar restrictions, in only pure effeciency, he grades out better than Kawhi through his 17-21 run, not quite as good as Durant the past few years, although comparable all things considered (Kobe peaked higher but was more inconsistent, Durant was more consistently 3-7 outside of a first place 2014 finish, Kawhi was similar to Kobe in terms of being great one year and not as great the next but his best years weren’t as high and his worst years were worse)
Overall his percentiles in these are quite good as well
In terms of pure effeciency, His 1v1 scoring as a whole could be seen somewhere inbetween kawhi and Durant, definately closer to Durant.
(1v1 scoring doesn’t imply when teams didn’t help or anything, so this would include when Kobe would take dumb shots into help and stuff)
I don’t think Kobe is inherently unable to be hyper effecient as an offense player because of him taking dumb shots. While I do agree he took a lot of stupid shots, for sure, I also think some of that is a function of isolation play in the 2000s in general.
Kobe was generally a very effecient player, but didn’t get as much of his in transition as guys like Lebron and Wade did. According to synergy, of players with 1250+ more scoring possessions (I did this to generally get the top 20-30 highest players by scoring possessions each year)
Kobe ranked
12 out of 17 in 2005 8 out of 27 in 2006 3 out of 19 in 2007 7 out of 33 in 2008 3 out of 27 in 2009 21 out of 29 in 2010
Which matches most data in him going up a tier 06-09 and dropping off a bit in 2005. 07 him having an issue of just refusing to pass, which shows up on the a post somewhere about him basically not passing out of iso that year
More interestingly though, looking at the data more carefully
In 06, 4th, 6th, and 7th place are guards (Ray has some seperation but he’s basically pretty close with arenas and redd)
In 07, he is only beaten by Dirk and amare
In 08, pierce beats him (although he has 2/3s the volume) and everyone else is a big
In 09, gasol and Dirk beat him out (although he and Dirk are in a virtual tie)
There are very obvious caveats to this for sure, but as a whole Kobe was a very effecient scorer, while he did most of his work in the halfcourt, he did also grade out well in transition, and the Lakers were a good transition team in general which fits with his offensive impact being as high as it was during his prime
I’m rambling a bit but my main point is that I think kobes offense is seen as, high volume but not too elite effeciency wise, whereas I think he did combine the best of both worlds as much as a perimeter player in the 2000s could.
The reason I’m harping on halfcourt vs transition is, I think that the two things you have to look at are
Does a players presence mean easier shots are being taken (for example, lebrons presence means more transition opportunities so that’s a plus)
Kobes presence didn’t seem to detract from his team’s transition opportunities (given his teams ranking in that regard were decent in 08 and 09) and he only didn’t have much of them in comparison to Wade and lebron, he had a good amount of them and was very good at that as well
I guess a similar comparison would be hitting threes at a 42% rate on tough shots vs them at a 45% rate on wide open ones?
This isn’t to say he was just as effecient as lebron in 09 or anything, of course not, but I think it’s a situation where he’s shooting well on contested threes, and in terms of the halfcourt vs transition situation.
A way to see it would be, he’s taking a tougher role on offense (a more halfcourt dominant role) and doing so at a very effecient rate within that role throughout his prime.
Taking the harder role doesn’t mean the easier role that leads to more effecient shots is inherently limited, but it does mean his expected fg% will be lower, despite it not being a negative impact, does that make sense idk if I’m explaining my thoughts well here
Could he have been even more effecient if he didn’t take dumb shots at times? Sure, but I don’t think he wasn’t substantially more effecient than his peers.
Furthermore, I do think that illegal D>hand checking in terms of impact it had on iso perimeter players, at least in kobes case, and obviously their offense didn’t exactly evolve, so I don’t think it’s inherently impossible for Kobe to be an outlier effecient player under the right circumstances or era.
His shot selection could be better, but I do think part of that is a product of the teams offense as well, and he was very effecient in spite of it overall given the role he had.
In 2013 for example, the team ran a bit more of a pick and roll offense, although it wasn’t really one because of all the Dwight drama, and Kobe did flourish much more after having dropped off offensively for awhile. There’s more too it than that of course but still, that he got to the paint as much as he did in his prime and was as effecient as he was in his prime after the seasons leading up to it makes me think 06-09 Kobe in 2013 kobes position probably ends up as a super high raw effeciency volume type player.
The questions giving me the most pause for 2008 versus 2009: — How does 2008 Kobe, or how do the 2008 Lakers, fare in a Finals matchup with the Pistons or Cavaliers? — Is there some demonstrable improvement in Kobe’s game in 2009 that would help him see more success against any of those defensively tougher 2008 eastern conference teams?
2. Anthony Davis (2020) Proxy’s commentary on Kawhi + my recent exploration of Dirk was enough to swap Kawhi and Davis from my initial rankings. On that Dirk note: imagine 2020, or even 2018, Davis on a slightly adjusted (to make up for the spacing decline going from Dirk to Davis) version of that 2011 Mavericks team. As a playoff scorer, prime Davis in a limited sample showed his acumen, and we also know he can be the world’s best defender. I would take that profile over the more one-sided skillsets of Dirk and Durant. Here Unibro’s take is yet again close to definitive: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2215651#p100682968
3. Kawhi Leonard (2017) Maybe the greatest postseason scorer shy of Jordan and Lebron. Even out of his prime defensive years is still usually a tough man defender. 2017 does lack consistent playmaking, but I am not sure if I feel strongly enough about 2019 or 2021 to go with those years this early instead. The 2019 series against Philadelphia is one of the greatest individual scoring series I have ever seen, but he declined as the postseason went along, and his regular season was pretty low value comparatively. So we settle on the year when Kawhi pre-Zaza injury looked like potentially the best player in the postseason while having a decent MVP regular season campaign. I do not care much about this specific postseason apart from the sense that it was the year where he first showcased his leap into true superstardom (to the chagrin of Memphis lol), but I do not think he improved much on any skills in 2019 apart from injury avoidance and marginal passing reads. I have concerns about his ability to handle a heavier regular season load on different teams that could need him to shoulder that load to compete, but not enough to put him any lower when considering how valuable he is when healthy. And in any case, 2017 was a pretty healthy regular season in which he had a fair shot at MVP anyway.
Doc MJ wrote:This is one of your trademark data-based arguments in which I sigh, go over to basketballreference, and then see all the ways you cherrypicked the data toward your prejudiced beliefs rather than actually using them to inform you
1. Bob Pettit (1959) : A man much forgotten in the annals of NBA lore, but whose entire career was almost one extended peak. He had an awesome season the year before, even leading the Hawks to their lone title over the vaunted Russell/Cousy Celtics. But his following year was his second MVP season with ridiculous averages of 29-16-4. He's the guy who essentially created/defined the PF position once he bulked up and added a long-distance jumpshot when mostly everyone was shooting hook-shots and set shots. 1959 he also led the league with 14.8 WS.
Honorable mention: (1958, 1962)
2. Moses Malone (1983): This was super difficult deciding between guys like Kawhi, Kobe, Barkley, Robinson and Moses but I went with Moses since this was maybe his finest season ever and most impactful, albeit on a really good roster. Demolishing everyone including a really good Bucks team and obviously a dynastic Lakers team in the Finals, outplaying Kareem soundly. Led the playoffs in win shares and upped his averages from 25-15 to 26-16 with 2 blks per game. An argument could be made that between 1979-1983 Moses was the best, or at least most dominant, player in the NBA. This season for Philly was a bit similar to the Spurs getting revenge on the Heat in 2014 after coming up short the year before, as Philly lost to the Lakers the year prior in the Finals.
Honorable mention: (1982, 1979)
3. Kobe Bryant (2009): Starting to run out of guys who were the clear-cut best players on title-winning teams and seasons. I had this spot reserved for either Kobe, Kawhi or possibly Robinson or Barkley and went with Kobe as one of the true elite all-timers who was still a great athlete at this point and a very good defensive player. As others have pointed out, he's becoming a bit overlooked because his FG% isn't exactly GOAT level but he was always an underrated and good passer at his position, and I think this season is when he, to the extent that he did, embraced his leadership role and understood how to play with his teammates. His increased production in the playoffs helped tilt me toward Kobe over others.
Honorable mention: (2008, 2006)
"Wes, Hill, Ibaka, Allen, Nwora, Brook, Pat, Ingles, Khris are all slow-mo, injury prone ... a sandcastle waiting for playoff wave to get wrecked. A castle with no long-range archers... is destined to fall. That is all I have to say."-- FOTIS
Next in line for me are Durant, Dirk, or Robinson. Bit of a triangle situation going on where I can argue Robinson over Durant (both need superstars to contend and struggle to take advantage in the playoffs without shared gravity, but Robinson’s baseline value is better), I like Dirk’s argument more than Robinson’s (resilience), and I see the intuitive argument for Durant over Dirk (has broadly better attributes so might only look worse because Dirk was more of an outlier in his own time).
Doc MJ wrote:This is one of your trademark data-based arguments in which I sigh, go over to basketballreference, and then see all the ways you cherrypicked the data toward your prejudiced beliefs rather than actually using them to inform you
AEnigma wrote:Next in line for me are Durant, Dirk, or Robinson. Bit of a triangle situation going on where I can argue Robinson over Durant (both need superstars to contend and struggle to take advantage in the playoffs without shared gravity, but Robinson’s baseline value is better), I like Dirk’s argument more than Robinson’s (resilience), and I see the intuitive argument for Durant over Dirk (has broadly better attributes so might only look worse because Dirk was more of an outlier in his own time).
Paradoxically enough while durant has better handles in a vacuum, i think dirk uses his handle better.
He seems a lot more decisive/simple/quick in his actions so even though his dribble is fairly "basic" and high he rarely gets stripped or the ball deflected as he uses his body well to protect the ball and doesnt dribble as much as kd
Durant handling is an advantage in some contexts but i dont think he is good enough ball handler and passer to have him dribble as much as he did outside his warriors years. Both dirk and durant are better off as isolationists/finishers who dont control the ball like a point forward
And within that archetype i am more impressed with dirk post game and how simple he makes his passing. No highlighr dimes but he keeps the ball moving or attacks decisively compared to durant who slows thinghs down more even in possesions that dont end up in isolation
Of course kevin is the superior shooter (and that says a lot) and is more mobile defensively as a help defender. And his handle gives him some advantages still like in running fastbreaks
lebron3-14-3 wrote:Wonder where will embiid and Ad 2020 (?) get ranked
I am more curious which peak year will be used
Embiid best and healthier post season may be 2019 which is also when his defensive effort was higher
But his play in 21 and 22 when healthy may be better overall, his offensive game seems to have taken a whole step up so it comes down imo to how you evaluate the health issues and offense/defense trade off
01 Erving 75-76: 28.7 PER | .569 TS% | 110 TS+ | 17.7 WS | .262 WS/48 01 Erving 75-76 Playoffs?!?: 32.0 PER | .610 TS% | 3.7 WS | .321 WS/48 [a peak so high the NBA absorbed a whole other league to get this guy under their banner. Doctor turned in a top tier do it all regular season, then followed it up with one of thee largest postseason efficiency increases of all time.]
02 Hawkins 67-68: 28.8 PER | .597 TS% | 124 TS+ | 17.5 WS | .273 WS/48 02 Hawkins 67-68 Playoffs?!?: 30.0 PER | .651 TS% | 4.0 WS | .310 WS/48 [for what amounts to spot #13 on my ballot I'll go with maybe thee unluckiest player in basketball history, robbed of his collegiate & early NBA career by completely spurious gambling allegations, then derailed by a knee injury which occurred amidst the ABA Championship in this very season.
but there was never any doubt Connie could ball from the outset as one of the original NYC greats at Rucker Park & being named the best high school player in the country in 1960. As for his 67-68 peak, the Hawk simply did everything. Topped the brand new ABA in PPG on monster efficiency, 2nd in the league in RPG, 3rd in the league in APG. Then took his game to a whole other level in the playoffs, hurting his knee during the Championship series & returning to lead his team to the top in heroic fashion even before Willis Reed (or Giannis) did it.
I get it, the 67-68 ABA is probably the 2nd weakest competition level to receive a vote so far besides 49-50 Mikan, but Hawkins had no alternative, it was the best league available to him due to his illegal blacklisting from the NBA & he thoroughly dominated it across the board. Also think that Connie's peak game works in any era with his mix of size, athleticism and all around skillset.]
***I have a tier break here which goes from #14 to #25 with the following seasons under consideration (in chrono order) 63-64 Oscar, 65-66 West, 82-83 Moses, 94-95 Admiral, 03-04 Garnett, 05-06 Wade, 05-06 Nowitzki, 08-09 Kobe, 16-17 Kawhi, 16-17 Durant, 20-21 Giannis and 21-22 Jokic.***
03 Kawhi 16-17: 27.6 PER | .610 TS% | 111 TS+ | 13.6 WS | .264 WS/48 03 Kawhi 16-17 Playoffs?!?: 31.5 PER | .672 TS% | 2.8 WS | .314 WS/48 [ultimately going with Kawhi for two main reasons, his elite defense as a wing defender is unique among the remaining contenders, and his postseason was shaping up as a best ever candidate with Leonard posting absolutely insane efficiency before Zaza stepped in.]
I hold Embiid in moderately high regard, but for as much as his team relies on him, I cannot say I have been that impressed by his postseasons, and his health and general conditioning are still a detriment to some extent. Debate between Robinson, 1990 Ewing, and him is another interesting one within their lightly shared archetype.
Doc MJ wrote:This is one of your trademark data-based arguments in which I sigh, go over to basketballreference, and then see all the ways you cherrypicked the data toward your prejudiced beliefs rather than actually using them to inform you
Goals/Expectations going in: -Offense: the biggest counter people cite against Robinson an offensive decline. I'm hoping to identify causes / trends -Defense: Robinson's clearly the best remaining defender in this tier, by a wide margin.
Play by play notes:
Spoiler:
____________________ [Qualifier: I haven't gotten the chance to do the 4th Quarter yet, but here's initial film analysis for 1994 David Robinson, Game 4 vs Utah Jazz. I'll be editing in clearer notes, a more comprehensive summary, and 4th quarter observations when I get the chance. ]
0:20 Offense good quick pass off the double, gets teammate open shot, but miss.
0:35 defense Good double to prevent middle penetration, recovers quickly, strips opponents but fouls. Couldn’t see hands well enough to tell where his hands were on the foul
1:33 O They double without the ball, good off-ball effort. Pass to Robinson, double him again, and he hits open man quickly. Open man passes back to Robinson, who hits a different open man, who hits the 3. Notice how many doubles they send (multiple in one possession), and how terrible the spacing is for Robinson (2 extra defenders sagging into lane). You could argue the pass at 1:47 could come a split second earlier, but Robinson has shown 3 times over the past 2 possessions to be a quick and willing passer.
2:05 D Helps on a drive and deters a shot. Then gets rebound. -Compared to Giannis’ film analysis in the Greatest Peaks thread, notice how when Robinson is resting off-ball, he’s a rim deterrent. While when Giannis is resting off ball, he’s far from the rim. You could argue this is era-dependent, but regardless, Robinson’s passive off-ball presence seems to be a greater deterrent than Giannis’.
3:35 D Loses his man off-ball but recovers, fouls on the layup. If you watch the replay, Robinson’s hands are clearly in good position when the actual shot releases, but maybe they’re calling the left hand at the very start of the shot motion. Maybe
4:18 O Off ball screen, it isn’t the best screen but the Spurs player still gets open. Robinson then gets called rebounding foul.
5:33 O Pick and roll, Robinson sets a good screen that gets his man inner position on the drive. Teammate misses rim attempt
5:48 D Good defense, forces the opponent to reset the shot midair, but the opponent makes it anyway.
5:59 O Once again they double robinson, once again he hits open man, and for the third time rather than taking the open 3 (or missing the open shot) the once-open perimeter player passes back to Robinson. Robinson drives, you could argue he should hit #24 with the pass if 24 were a good shooter, but instead it’s a rim attempt that gets blocked
6:15 D Smaller defender has a mismatch so Robinson gets position to prevent the inside pass. Malone is open and could drive to the rim, but Robinson’s presence deters him into a midrange jumper that misses. Even when Robinson’s slower than you might want to rotate back to the open man after help defense, his presence alone still makes the shot harder
6:30 O Robinson again sets a great pick and roll screen, gets his teammate in great position on the drive, which ends up with an open 3 shot, that misses.
7:15 D Good rebound, quick pass to start transition
…
13:40 O Robinson spins baseline and hits fadeaway. Similar play to Giannis’ film analysis, except Robinson makes the shot.
14:00 D Active off-ball defense to prevent entry pass multiple times
…
18:15 O Robinson again doubled on entry pass (4th or 5th time?), drives and hits shot.
19:20 D Karl Malone’s defender just falls over, Robinson rotates, great rim protection forces Malone to miss
19:55 O Robinson makes entry pass, active off ball to get rebounding position
20:10 D Good off ball rim deterrence to force the pass, gets the rotation and great rim protection to force the miss… but teammate fouls.
21:09 O Doubled yet again off entry pass. Close but misses. I’d definitely rather the kickouot pass, though we’ve seen Robinson’s teammates not take the available open 3 multiple times.
22:41 O Doubled on entry pass, immediate tap pass out, leads to an open 3 opportunity then a made midrange off drive.
23:10 D Gets rebound, but not contested
26:16 O Bad off ball screen, okay pick and roll acreen. Entry pass, doubled, tries to score thrnover
30:45 O Lucky/good position to get the turnover. Then good off ball movement to get a foul.
31:50 d What is this camera movement lol. Can’t really see, but it looks like Robinson contestests a made Malone shot
32:15 O great off ball movement, gets entry pass, passes out of triple which leads to a made spurs shot.
32:42 d Good double to protect the rim, but made shot
33:10 o Active off ball, good iso, close but misses. However, 4 defenders have collapsed into lane, which helps opens up the rebound. Robinson pick n roll, screen is rejected but it breaks down the defense (credit guard), leads to made spurs 3
32:57 O Quick shot at free throw like shows Robinson’s midrange. (Not sure what the commentators are talking about, this was neither Dale Ellis shooting or a 3)
34:10 D Good help on Stockton after Stockton loses his defender prevents the open shot. Stockton passes, Rodman helps, and gets a clean block but called for the foul and a flagrant for the shove after
36:45 D Helps Rodman on guarding Malone but Malone makes
38:10 O Triple teamed off entry pass, they foul him.
39:38 o Good off ball movement, entry pass to iso, they double him, Robinson makes it
40:11 d Robinson help defense at the rim leads to miss
40:40 O Good offensive rebound tip almost gets team another possession
40:45 D Good defense on first attempt, leads to miss. But Malone makes second shot
41:55 O Doubled on entry pass. Leads to open 3, then drive, then miss.
42:10 d rebound
42:40 D Good pressure to prevent pick and roll drive. Could have been in better rebounding position
43:10 O Wiling passer to off-ball movers, but the off-ball movement doesn’t really lead to anything
43:25 D Intimidation, steps up to prevent the drive. But because his teammate lost track of his defensive assignment,, Jazz get a good shot
44:55 O Active off ball. triple teamed off ball but misses
47:05 O Perhaps the first possession they don’t immediately double Robinson on the entry pass. The double comes late, but Robinson with a good spin move into a made shot.
48:12 O The first entry pass post-up where Robinson isn’t doubled comes with ~2 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. Robinson posts up Malone and makes it off another spin move
48:30 D offensive foul
49:35 O Pick and roll, Robinson’s great screen and great guard speed creates a ton of space. Defense breaks down, Spurs make the tip in. This kind of play as a screener and roll-man is why I think Robinson would play so much better with a better guard who could shoot off Robinson’s doubles / PnR drive / pass to Robinson as a roll man
50:00 D Contests the layup pass, pass gets in the right area but it’s a
50:10 O Pick and roll, Robinson gets pass, Robinson stripped to Rodman but rodman falls out of bounds
…
4th quarter [to be added later]
____________________
Offensive Summary (to be expanded later):
Robinson faced immediate double teams on about 85% of all tracked entry passes, and faced eventual double teams on 92% of all possessions with entry passes.
Robinson passed on half these entry-pass doubles, and attempted to score on the other half. In these possessions, Robinson shot 43% eFG% against doubles while his teammates shot 50% on wide open shots. In one case his teammate actually rejected the open look and immediately passed back to Robinson while he was still doubled.
Additional context: Now you might critique Robinson for not passing more (I do). But he increased his scoring frequency on doubles later in the game after his teammates had missed a number of open looks and even rejected taking open shots. This is sort of like a micro-version of the 06 Kobe approach, increasing iso scoring attempts when teammates miss or reject open shots. It's not the kind of play you'd want with good teammates, but if a player shows a clear willingness to be a passer / facilitator / off-ball player with better teammates (which Robinson clearly has), their slightly selfish shooting alongside poor non-championship-quality teammates isn't too much of a concern, at least to me.
Pick and rolls: The Spurs went to the entry pass (which the Jazz doubled) for 54% of the offensive plays where Robinson was active. Another 21% was on the pick and roll, where the Spurs had 1.0 Points per possession on these plays (50% eFG%). The majority of the misses were either wide open or rejected open shots in favor of contested shots that missed.
Other offensive plays: The remaining 25% of offensive plays where Robinson was active involved Robinson as a passer at the top, successful Robinson isos, offensive rebounding, and good off-ball play (either setting screens or fighting for inner position).
In sum: The biggest critique against Robinson is declining playoff offense, specifically scoring. I think it’s reasonable for any big man to have worse scoring numbers if they’re doubled on 92% of possessions they get an entry pass. I often cite his poor teammates as the cause of Robinson’s poor play: the film study supports this. Shooting 50% eFG% on wide open shots created by Robinson double-teams or Robinson pick and rolls is simply not acceptable in playoff-quality teammates.
[I hope to update this for the 4th quarter and add defensive comments later. feel free to add your own film analysis to this too! ]
With better fit, what playoff-only stats did he get better in? Improvement from ~94-96 Peak Terrible-fit Robinson -> ~98-01 Older Better-fit Robinson: 3-year Playoff PIPM estimates: ~30th all time -> Top 15 all time 3-year Playoff BP’s BPM: ~45th all time -> Top 30 Multi-year Playoff on/off: Not GOAT level -> 1st all time Multi-year Playoff BR’s BPM and WS/48 all improve. He also improves in PER (if we just compare 94/95 vs 98/99/00/01, though 96 is his best year there).
The pattern we see is this: 94-96: One 3 year group, where regular season impact metrics (like the ones linked above) are higher than anywhere else in his career. The regular season stats decline slightly each year, while the postseason stats increase each year (with small sample bias to add uncertainty) 98-01: One 4 year group, where the regular season impact metrics are far lower than his perceived peak, but the playoff stats are far higher than this.
Why should we disbelieve the 94-96 playoff Impact metric decline and believe the 98-01 playoff impact metric rise? One explanation is team "schemability." Cases of all time floor-raising of bad teams can sometimes be more easily schemed against in the playoffs (e.g. double the superstar, superstar passes out, bad teammate bricks open shot... which is exactly what we saw in the film study). Another explanation is individual "scalability." some skills are more scalable with better teammates and better teams than others. We can examine which skills are more scalable, both philosophically/theoretically, through film study, and by examining the data to see which player archetypes get worse and which get better on better teams. And Robinson's archetype (high-value defense, off-ball offense, screener, good play finisher as rollman/dunker, willing passer off double teams) is absolutely one of the most scalable archetypes are.
Even if you propose that some of the 94 regular season metrics are inflated because all-time-floor-raising seasons have inflated stats (maybe), I'd counter that Robinson's scalability should mean his impact loses less value on better teams than many other all-time peaks... and the data actually supports this in the 98-01 playoffs!
Robinson has top 15 level regular season impact in his peak 94-96. After his peak in 98-01 when he had a much better fit, he also showed top-15/20ish playoff impact. While this older sample may be overstating older Robinson, they do indicate how much better peak Robinson could be in the playoffs with better fit. He’s clearly the best defensive player of the remaining peaks [in this tier], by some margin. The biggest concern is declining playoff numbers, specifically scoring, but to me the film analysis paints a pretty clear picture that Robinson’s teammates are the primary culprits of the Spurs’ decline.
1. Doctor J 1976. Yes, it was in the ABA. The final year of that league before the merger in 77 and at that point, the ABA was loaded with future Hall of Famers such as David Thompson, Artis Gilmore, George Gervin, Bobby Jones and Dan Issel. No plumbers or milkmen in that group. And Dr J put up one of the best all-around seasons ever. Led the league in scoring at 29.3 ppg. Fifth in rebounding at 11.0 rpg. Seventh in assists at 5.0 apg. Third in steal at 2.5 spg. Seventh in blocks at 1.9 bpg. Tenth in field goal percentage at .507% and sixth in 3-point % at 33%. And led the league in PER, Win Shares, Offensive Win Shares, Defensive Win Shares, WS/48, Box Plus/Minus, VORP, and Usage %. Off the top of my head, the only other player who dominated across that many aspects of the game might be 51 Mikan but we don't have any idea what his blocks or steal numbers were and I'd guess that the competition level in the 76 ABA was higher than the 51 NBA. 2. David Robinson 1994. This was primarily between the Admiral and Mikan, two great centers who played over 40 years apart. I have both over 77 Walton due to durability; Mikan played all 68 games (it was a 68 game season) and the Admiral played in 80 of 82 RS games, whereas Walton had 17 games in which he scored 0 points, grabbed 0 boards, set 0 screens and completed 0 passes. As great as he was in the other 65, that's too big a gap when we are comparing to guys that gave comparable impact for so many more minutes. While I don't think 94 was quite DRob's defensive peak and his rebounding was clearly below his peak years, he was still All Defensive 2nd team that season and it was his best offensive season. If he were better than 14th best in rebounds/game, this would have been an easier selection for me. I was set to vote for Mikan but I always struggle with how much to ding him for his era. So I flipped a coin and D-Rob won the flip! But Mikan will be my next selection.
3. George Mikan 1950. I said that he would be my next selection so here he is. Most dominant 2-way player relative to his peers of anyone left. Led the league in scoring, Win Shares and Defensive WS. Likely would have led the league in rebounds and blocks if those stats were recorded then and would have been the clear favorite for Defensive Player of the Year is such an award existed. There is no question whatsoever that he was the best of his era, more so than anyone left. In terms of in-era dominance, he has a very good case for being the GOAT. As is, he may well be the most impactful player ever, given that the 24-second rule was established largely due to Mikan's dominance and the widening of the key was dubbed "the Mikan rule". A good argument can be made that the introduction of the shot clock is the single biggest and most influential rule change since the NBA started. The question is how much do we penalize him for playing in a weaker era. This is where I would draw the line at continuing to penalize him.
DraymondGold wrote:1994 Robinson Playoff Film Analysis As discussed in a previous thread (link to be added later), Robinson already has Top 15 Regular Season peak numbers. When Robinson was given better teammates and a better fit, he has Top 15/20 Playoff-only numbers (in admittedly a smaller role/sample). He’s clearly the best defensive player of the remaining peaks [in this tier], by some margin. The biggest concern is declining playoff numbers, specifically scoring, but to me the film analysis paints a pretty clear picture that Robinson’s teammates are the primary culprits of the Spurs’ decline.
[I hope to update this for the 4th quarter and add defensive comments later. feel free to add your own film analysis to this too! ]
I appreciate you providing a breakdown! I haven't been able to watch this recently and make my own breakdown(WNBA playoffs starting soon too so gotta lock in for that).
I just wanted to comment this because it seems to me that this is maybe *slightly* misunderstanding the concerns that other people may have with Robinson if it was supposed to be addressed to them(at least some which I have). I agree that his teammates were probably the primary culprits of the Spurs' decline, and there is tons of evidence that supporting casts generally show to have a higher correlation with a team's PS success than an individual star player.
But, the argument against Robinson isn't just that his playoff numbers take a dip, but it's that the trend in his scoring also exists in the regular season.
I believe this is some evidence that his regular season statistical profile is boosted a bit more than his contemporaries by beating up on weaker defenses(favorable matchups), and his lack of counters were shown when facing better defenses more equipped to defend him, likely with more versatile bigmen - seeing as how this decline was very much on the "large side" for modern superstars, noted by elgee in his video.
So when I look at Robinson and see these trends in his scoring efficiency even without likely garnering the same attention/game-planning that he would in a playoff series very much in part due to his skillset(still hard to say without more film of regular season matchups, and team situation still does play a part) - when those are coupled with his 'goodness' in the RS being likely a bit more comparable to the other players of this group, it is some of the things keeping me from voting him in much earlier personally. I also mentioned the weirdness with the Spurs on/off collinearity in the PS from the late 90s-early 00s in an earlier thread for a reason I take those with a grain of salt, but very impressive looking in his role regardless.
I'm not sure I agree Robinson's numbers are boosted that much more than his contemporaries, just based on beating up poor opponents in the regular season. In the Giannis thread, I argued the same thing against Giannis, that he shows greater scoring declines vs opposing good defenses than many other players in this tier, and Giannis got voted in at #13, which would now be 6-slots ahead of Robinson! Now you may argue even with declining scoring, Giannis is still the better overall scorer, but Robinson is the better overall defender. He also has many of the offensive "scalable skills" over Giannis (e.g. screening, off-ball movement especially in the post, rebounding, etc.).
So to me it's not exactly the case that other players in this tier of peaks or even this archetype don't have this issue.
But let's say your point is valid, let's say regular season Robinson had worse numbers against good defenses in the regular season too, not just against good opponents in the playoffs. If the explanation for the apparent postseason decline is poor teammates (e.g. Robinson gets doubled on ~85+% of entry passes, and his teammates shoot a paltry 50% eFG% on the resulting open shots per the filmy study), wouldn't a similar argument also explain the regular season decline against good defenses?
Great floor-raising seasons like Robinson's (even when these floor-raising performances are from scalable ceiling-raising players like Robinson) often suffer from a "schemeability".... it's easier for good defenses and good opponents to limit the individual's performance, since they can ignore the poor teammates to focus on limiting the lone star. And since the lone star doesn't have good teammates, hyper-focusing the defense on stopping the lone star ends up stopping the entire team.
1. 1995/96 David Robinson (1994, 1995)- Led the league in PER in both the regular season AND postseason while anchoring the 3rd best defense in the league. Early impact metrics had him neck and neck with Michael Jordan for best player in the league. When Robinson missed the vast majority of the following season, the Spurs defense went from 3rd/29 to 29th/29. They were 9 points worse per 100 possessions. The following season when he returned, the defense improved 13 points per 100 possessions. His defensive impact vastly outpaced his box score value and you can argue that at this point in his career, he was right there with anyone else in the history of the league for most valuable defensive players. I have a hard time believing that Bill Russell ever peaked higher than David Robinson for instance since Robinson had such a strong offensive game while providing at least 95% of the same value on defense.
2. 2016/2017 Kawhi Leonard (2016)- Yes he suffered a season ending injury in the playoffs, but it was on a dirty play that could have happened to anyone and prior to that, he hadn’t been injury prone at all. In the playoffs that year, Kawhi had a 31.5 PER on .672 TS%. He had .314 WS/48 and a 14.2 BPM. All of those are all-time numbers. What’s even more impressive though is he did all that WITH some of the best wing defense of all-time. He won DPOY in 2015 and 2016 and absolutely played at that same elite level in the playoffs. He had a playoff on/off of +22.3 and led the Spurs to a huge lead over the best team of all-time in Game 1 against the Warriors in a series where they would ultimately get swept after he got hurt.
3. 2010/11 Dirk Nowitzki- In 2 strong RAPM samples, he ranked incredibly high finishing 1st overall in the NBAShotCharts site which spanned from 2010-2022 and he also ranked #3 in the 97-14 sample on Yahoo behind 2 LeBron years and one year from Tim Duncan. The Mavericks were approximately a -6 with him on the bench in both the regular season and postseason and yet, he led them to sweep Kobe and Pau in the first round and beat a superteam of Wade, Bosh, and LeBron that many thought was the best team ever established at the time.
DraymondGold wrote: I'm not sure I agree Robinson's numbers are boosted that much more than his contemporaries, just based on beating up poor opponents in the regular season. In the Giannis thread, I argued the same thing against Giannis, that he shows greater scoring declines vs opposing good defenses than many other players in this tier, and Giannis got voted in at #13, which would now be 6-slots ahead of Robinson! Now you may argue even with declining scoring, Giannis is still the better overall scorer, but Robinson is the better overall defender. He also has many of the offensive "scalable skills" over Giannis (e.g. screening, off-ball movement especially in the post, rebounding, etc.).
I'm going to respond to this one for myself rq rather than saying why I think other people may have problems
I was never able to have Giannis on my ballot at any point of this project and I probably would not have ranked him that highly either(I don't rly mind the placement anymore though like I wouldn't if Robinson was in already), considering I was bringing up some the same things you brought up for him earlier I think even before you did(I do think he creates more shots for his teammates though when his scoring is walled off). It's also not that players have this problem, it's the degree to which they have them and it was noted Robinson's was on the "large side" relative to modern superstars - do you have examples using anyone here besides Giannis? Even then i'm not sure if Giannis' was as bad but icr what his looked like.
Also tbh I don't really know why the amount of spots separated matters that much anymore, we've had multiple ties and I imagine many participants have these players in a pretty large tier that may still not be finished at this point. I for one have a giant tier of players between like 13 and 25 - the players that get voted in at 13 and like 22(or lower seeing where KD will probably end up) on this project will probably end up on a similar level goodness-wise for me the way this project is going and idt these two(Giannis and Drob) are especially similar honestly(not like Oscar and Jerry having their careers completely lined up and having very similar impact indicators).
DraymondGold wrote:But let's say your point is valid, let's say regular season Robinson had worse numbers against good defenses in the regular season too, not just against good opponents in the playoffs. If the explanation for the apparent postseason decline is poor teammates (e.g. Robinson gets doubled on ~85+% of entry passes, and his teammates shoot a paltry 50% eFG% on the resulting open shots per the filmy study), wouldn't a similar argument also explain the regular season decline against good defenses?
This is something I already acknowledged, but I said I find it unlikely that in the regular season as well in a somewhat large sample that opposing teams were really keyed in and gameplanning in the same way they would in an actual playoffs series. I said it's hard to say without much film, but I find it VERY improbable they were really doing this to the same degree for most of the sample. I can't see it being nearly as extreme as the example you gave at all(I highly doubt teams are doubling him 85% of the time in the regular season for example), and you could point to actual indicators in his skillset(lack of counters) that would help explain why this probably happens against certain teams outside of just getting double teamed or something. Again though it was never a point of mine that he wouldn't really look better or anything in a better circumstance(I do think he would be better in a ceiling raiser role), but i'm just not exactly sure where that would make him land on a list like this for me atm.
DraymondGold wrote:Great floor-raising seasons like Robinson's (even when these floor-raising performances are from scalable ceiling-raising players like Robinson) often suffer from a "schemeability".... it's easier for good defenses and good opponents to limit the individual's performance, since they can ignore the poor teammates to focus on limiting the lone star. And since the lone star doesn't have good teammates, hyper-focusing the defense on stopping the lone star ends up stopping the entire team.
I'm not entirely sure why this is being brought up, yes this is true. However the degree to which a player(and thus team) gets slowed down varies from player to player - which is why some players are considered better floor raisers than others in the first place! I don't believe Robinson's situation in the RS is all that optimal or anything but I also don't really believe it's some WOATed circumstance either, and I don't fully point to him for all their failures for reasons I said before.
AEnigma wrote:Arf arf.
trex_8063 wrote:Calling someone a stinky turd is not acceptable. PLEASE stop doing that.
One_and_Done wrote:I mean, how would you feel if the NBA traced it's origins to an 1821 league of 3 foot dwarves who performed in circuses?
Proxy wrote:19. 2020 Anthony Davis I'd say I've been pretty convinced by UnibrowDavis' explanations in previous threads(https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2215651#p100682968), I still think alot of his conclusions are pretty extreme like the KD offensive value comparison or 2nd best offensive player of the PS(Feel both Harden and Luka were clearly better still minimum) but upon revisiting his playoff run I I think not only was he not really optimized offensively(honestly he may not have been all that much for full seasons since like 2015, and his value wasn't optimized in the 2020 RS defensively and you could see the massive difference in Lakers' scheme from the RS vs the PS), but also the majority of things that made it great were pretty replicable to me(so much reasons for his dominance besides shooting luck honestly where he underperformed from true mid range if anything - the interior scoring, some of the self creation, the off ball stuff and relentless opportunity hunting where is truly all-time in that regard have all been pretty consistent things to me and why he looks like a general PS riser in his prime in the small sample). Offers so much to a team even with his secondary skills and allows for so much scheme versatility on defense, that with his offensive flexibility gains tremendous value in a PS environment.
20. 2008 Kobe Bryant (2009, 2007, 2006) I think I said it in a very earlier thread when Kobe first got brought up but out of the players in this group yet to be voted I believe he has the most proof of sustaining his regular season value into the playoffs over his prime sample size wise, and none of these players have created as much separation as regular season performers like say the top 12 peaks here have, besides Drob who I believe has potentially the poorest resilience here and gave reasons for why I believe his statistical profile is inflated and not truly reflective of his goodness in much earlier theads.
Average defense played in that stretch(148 Games): Ranked #5 in the league, -3.2 rDRTG
With truly all-time resilience - maybe the best in this group to me for a player at his level besides 1976 Erving, fairly strong showcases of portability(similar value in all acts of his prime mainly just dipping in '04/'05 in very distinct circumstances) and no players here besides Robinson creating *enough* separation in terms of RS value from what I can see, the combination puts him at the top for me. 21. 2017 Kevin Durant (2018, 2016, 2014) DraymondGold and I made brief comparisons between him and Kobe in earlier threads(I want to say in the 11th?) - their impact indicators are very similar in the regular season over their primes(KD peaking higher in 2016 according to APM and WOWY stuff, but Kobe having the edge prime-wise), and Kobe winning in the PS according to most hybrid metric stuff(KD still winning the box stuff).
They both have their advantages over eachother to me and I have it as mostly a toss up, thus having them both above anyone else so far(also believe they are both a little more portable than anyone i've mentioned in this group besides Robinson). I feel Durant is a better scorer, probably adds more spacing value seeing as he can play the 4/5, and probably unlocks a bit more defensive versatility on that end due to that as well from not bleeding significant value there at his peak.
Proxy wrote:I also agree KD offers so much value when not put in the role as a lead playmaker as a hyper efficient release valve that can play the 4/5 and drag rim protectors away from the paint unlike most wings that it might bridge the gap. This production was just absurd and so versatile in 2017
And it was also great in 2014 And 2016, basically excellent in every category for his prime:
His result of raising the Warriors to a +14.4 SRS level compared to the +10.4 in the 19 games in missed with a otherwise healthy roster in 2017 is probably one of the more impressive IRL ceiling raising results in history to me considering he generates most of his value from volume scoring, but it's hard to tell how much better many other players could do better in those circumstances(Like a Kobe).
I believe alot of the Kobe Vs KD debate depends on how much these are valued. EDIT: Also 2008 Kobe for comparison(could grab other years if anyone is interested):
His ability as such a hyper efficient release valve is both portable and scalable, providing fairly high value on both the Thunder with Russ, with the Warriors, and on the Nets with Harden/Kyrie and i'm impressed by his ability to raise the ceiling of the Warriors(already being like a +12 team when healthy in 2016) as high as he did as primarily a volume scorer.
However Kobe has some advantages as a playmaker that made me lean towards preferring him as a primary
Proxy wrote:I'm not sure I agree with your conclusion that KD should be considered clearly ahead by the data in your other post, I think the nox box 1 numbers are capturing some of KD's problems that aren't really captured too well in the box score.
Some of the things I see on film are that are: -I think he takes a hair longer than many other offensive players I think are on his level, maybe even slower than Dirk even when it comes to recognizing the optimal pass or play and misses many tight windows(corner passes are a big one).
-I believe he has court mapping issues and lacks diverse passing deliveries and the ability to make more than basic passing reads.
-I also feel he struggles to leverage his off ball scoring threat to pressure defenses within the flow of an offense(ex: doesn't really screen that much, and doesn't really fight as hard for little advantages for position in the post or off the ball like a Kobe or Bird that generate small advantages), he also occasionally gets stuck between scoring and passing modes but I think he got better at balancing the two the further down his career.
The very clear difference in how box 1 number metrics and pure APM metrics portray him over his prime give me a little bit of concern when concluding his profile should be looked at as more impressive. I will also say Kobe didn't play alongside a mega ball dominant player like Russ(those ball dominant high volume players tend to perform pretty well in those metrics) for most his prime to take away some of the credit like KD.
Otoh I think some of those OKC teams were extremely poorly suited when it came to optimizing either KD's(and Russ') offensive value and yet their PS team results together were still fairly impressive in the playoffs for some of those years. I could not buy those teams as being viable in the modern NBA.
In 48 games from 2013 to 2016 they had a +5.25 rORTG on very heavily defensively minded teams running up to 4 non-high volume 3 point shooters around KD at times, and +8 PS Net Rating, and before that, from 2010 to 2012 they had a +6.73 rORTG and +7.1 Net Rating in 43 games, and this was before his peak, and before Russ or Harden really broke out as stars.
Showing how on a bit more balanced rosters he could honestly lead you to some pretty impressive offensive results as a very clear 1A offensively.
On all reports i've seen, Kobe grew as a defensive communicator before the 2007 season and is probably a more schematically sound defender than KD, his main problem being motor related(but I also don't think it was only due to offensive load by this point, I wish he had another lung or something), I see his communication as being fairly additive in most circumstances. EDIT: Not to say they don't have other advantages over eachother, I just don't hsvr time to go even more in depth
I would probably give KD an edge in portability and scalability, but I see Kobe is still being probably more resilient in a deep playoffs run setting generally due to his playmaking. Overall I see them both being fairly similar in value to eachother on both ends(i'd probably go Kobe offensively, and Durant defensively). My choice is Kobe by a hair because I think there are very slightly more realistic team circumstances overall in a normal league in which I think he'd be a higher value add in a playoff setting, and decided to go with what I feel are their most complete versions as players.
To avoid any confusion, my ballot is...:
1. 2020 Anthony Davis
2. 2008 Kobe Bryant (2009, 2007, 2006)
3. 2017 Kevin Durant (2018, 2016, 2014)
AEnigma wrote:Arf arf.
trex_8063 wrote:Calling someone a stinky turd is not acceptable. PLEASE stop doing that.
One_and_Done wrote:I mean, how would you feel if the NBA traced it's origins to an 1821 league of 3 foot dwarves who performed in circuses?
1. 1976 Julius Erving - Dr J had one of the most dominant years ever in North American pro basketball in the final year of the ABA. Where you rank him mostly depends on how good you think the ABA was towards its end. I'd say I'm probably somewhere in the middle. With the likes of Artis Gilmore, Dan Issel, Bobby Jones and George Gervin the ABA had become a serious competitor to the NBA but it didn't become on the same level just yet and since even the mid-70s NBA is generally considered as a relatively weak era, the mid-70s ABA isn't one of the strongest eras either. Overall though this is still a very complete season and it remains a fact you can only beat who is put in front of you. What especially helps him out here is the Nets roster besides Dr J himself wasn't particularly special, which is a huge contrast to the other guys I'm considering around this spot.
2. 1983 Moses Malone - Moses wasn't the best defender but in 83 he does look pretty impressive on that end, while his offense has always been strong. He's hurt somewhat by playing on a historically stacked team but it's hard to go against him winning MVP by a landslide and leading the 76ers to a dominant title. I might be somewhat influenced by winning bias here but we have rather incomplete advanced stats for the early 80s so I'd rather not put too much emphasis on Moses not having an overwhelmingly high BPM.
3. 2009 Kobe Bryant - I had 06 Wade here last round and I see them as comparable seasons. I went with Wade because I thought he had a little less help but otherwise there is little seperating them. Kobe wasn't the best player in the regular season but he had a MVP level showing nontheless and then in the play-offs he went off for the best run of his career. I see the case for 08 as Kobe's peak as the main difference was the secondary stars like Pau and Odom stepping up, while Kobe played about as high level in both years. That said, I do think Kobe's finals performance in 08 left some to be desired even if it came against a dominant defensive team so I ended up picking 09 as his peak.
19. David Robinson. 1994. Not his defensive best, but pretty close to it. And definitely his offensive peak. 29.4 pp75 at +4.9rTS%
20. Kawhi Leonard. 2016-17. He took a big step up to the offensive machine he is today. And his defence took a small step back from its stratospheric levels, but it was still there on key possessions. 29 pp75 at +5.7 rTS%
21. Kevin Durant. 2017. 28 pp75 at +10 rTS%. I know Curry was grabbing the attention, giving KD easier looks, but we don’t dock Magic for playing with Kareem, Jordan for playing with Scottie and Rodman (offensive rebounds), or Kobe for playing with Shaq.
I know this is probably going to be controversial on this forum since he’s usually fringe t15 on peak lists around here (due to what seems like RS impact metrics). Most Impact metrics generally do have him around the fringe t15 range (like 13-17ish) but Kobe is one of the biggest PO risers ever. Here’s 08-10 Kobe from the RS to PO (biggest peak PO sample we have without 2 first round exits skewing results).
PO 30.5 PTS 5.6 AST 5.6 TRB 3.2 TOV +4.9 rTS +7.4 BBR BPM (+5.9/g) +6.7 BP BPM/g (+8.4/100) +2.1 3yr AuPM/g (+2.6/100 this is obviously skewed by the 2 previous years) +7.63 RAPTOR (+6.06/g)
31 IA PTS/75 on +5 rTS is absolutely insane when you consider that he’s playing in 2 center lineups with his best spacer being him and facing more gravity than anyone in nba history that’s name doesn’t start with an S. Him being able to pretty much maintain that in the PO over a 3yr stretch of finals runs against GOAT tier PO comp (same points on +4 rTS) is pretty damn good evidence for him being not only an all time PO riser but this scoring production being real for him. Him being an all time PO riser makes since because he’s arguably the best tough shot maker of all time and is a clear all time self creator which is the number 1 way for your scoring to be resilient in the PO against tougher defenses and more defensive attention. His defense was also pretty solid in 2008. He did still have a bit of a motor issue in the RS but it consistently would shoot up in the PO and this was no different in 08. He was a very good on ball defender but was also a good off ball defender (really good trapper, was the lakers’ primary communicator, and I thought his off ball awareness was improved from his past few years, although his closeout D wasn’t great which hurt his overall off ball D)
Overall i think it’s pretty fair to put Kobe in that top 10 range although I could see him at like 14ish(?) depending how high you are on others/low on him
14. 1996 David Robinson
David Robinson is another O2 D1 player with really really good impact metrics in the RS (which are inflated by his lack of a backup center) that is a clear PO dropper. Robinson is lower than KG because KG is much better off the ball and a much better passer which makes him better offensively (although Drob is a > scorer and arguably better defender). I could see him a little bit lower and I don’t like to go higher than 14 for him
15. 2009 Dwyane Wade
Dwyane Wade is arguably a t15 offensive player ever and is an elite to arguably all time great defender at his peak. He’s a t15 scorer a t20 playmaker and one of the best rim protecting guards ever. he’s held back mainly by his lack of shooting and his major on ball dominance / lack of off ball activity. I may go deeper in detail on him in the future but this is as much as I’ll say for now. I can see him at 14 or at ≈ 16
I know this is probably going to be controversial on this forum since he’s usually fringe t15 on peak lists around here (due to what seems like RS impact metrics). Most Impact metrics generally do have him around the fringe t15 range (like 13-17ish) but Kobe is one of the biggest PO risers ever. Here’s 08-10 Kobe from the RS to PO (biggest peak PO sample we have without 2 first round exits skewing results).
PO 30.5 PTS 5.6 AST 5.6 TRB 3.2 TOV +4.9 rTS +7.4 BBR BPM (+5.9/g) +6.7 BP BPM/g (+8.4/100) +2.1 3yr AuPM/g (+2.6/100 this is obviously skewed by the 2 previous years) +7.63 RAPTOR (+6.06/g)
31 IA PTS/75 on +5 rTS is absolutely insane when you consider that he’s playing in 2 center lineups with his best spacer being him and facing more gravity than anyone in nba history that’s name doesn’t start with an S. Him being able to pretty much maintain that in the PO over a 3yr stretch of finals runs against GOAT tier PO comp (same points on +4 rTS) is pretty damn good evidence for him being not only an all time PO riser but this scoring production being real for him. Him being an all time PO riser makes since because he’s arguably the best tough shot maker of all time and is a clear all time self creator which is the number 1 way for your scoring to be resilient in the PO against tougher defenses and more defensive attention. His defense was also pretty solid in 2008. He did still have a bit of a motor issue in the RS but it consistently would shoot up in the PO and this was no different in 08. He was a very good on ball defender but was also a good off ball defender (really good trapper, was the lakers’ primary communicator, and I thought his off ball awareness was improved from his past few years, although his closeout D wasn’t great which hurt his overall off ball D)
Overall i think it’s pretty fair to put Kobe in that top 10 range although I could see him at like 14ish(?) depending how high you are on others/low on him
14. 1996 David Robinson
David Robinson is another O2 D1 player with really really good impact metrics in the RS (which are inflated by his lack of a backup center) that is a clear PO dropper. Robinson is lower than KG because KG is much better off the ball and a much better passer which makes him better offensively (although Drob is a > scorer and arguably better defender). I could see him a little bit lower and I don’t like to go higher than 14 for him
15. 2009 Dwyane Wade
Dwyane Wade is arguably a t15 offensive player ever and is an elite to arguably all time great defender at his peak. He’s a t15 scorer a t20 playmaker and one of the best rim protecting guards ever. he’s held back mainly by his lack of shooting and his major on ball dominance / lack of off ball activity. I may go deeper in detail on him in the future but this is as much as I’ll say for now. I can see him at 14 or at ≈ 16
Wade is already in, you have to vote someone else at 3rd
Can't complain since I haven't been voting, but surprised at lack of love for 2011 Dirk here. Then again there are several other elite level seasons not in yet like 76 Erving.
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