Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 - 1993-94 David Robinson

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Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 - 1993-94 David Robinson 

Post#1 » by LA Bird » Sat Aug 20, 2022 1:00 pm

RealGM Greatest Peaks List (2022)
1. 1990-91 Michael Jordan
2. 2012-13 LeBron James
3. 1999-00 Shaquille O'Neal
4. 1976-77 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
5. 1966-67 Wilt Chamberlain
6. 2002-03 Tim Duncan
7. 1993-94 Hakeem Olajuwon
8. 1963-64 Bill Russell
9. 1985-86 Larry Bird
10. 1986-87 Magic Johnson
11. 2016-17 Stephen Curry
12. 2003-04 Kevin Garnett
13. 2020-21 Giannis Antetokounmpo
14. 1963-64 Oscar Robertson
15. 1965-66 Jerry West
16. 2021-22 Nikola Jokic
17. 1976-77 Bill Walton
18. 2005-06 Dwyane Wade
19. 2007-08 Kobe Bryant
20. ?

Spoiler:
Please vote for your 3 highest player peaks and at least one line of reasoning for each of them.

Vote example 1
1. 1991 Jordan: Explanation
2. 2013 LeBron: Explanation
3. 2000 Shaq: Explanation

In addition, you can also list other peak season candidates from those three players. This extra step is entirely optional

Vote example 2
1. 1991 Jordan: Explanation
(1990 Jordan)
2. 2013 LeBron: Explanation
(2012 LeBron)
(2009 LeBron)
3. 2000 Shaq: Explanation

You can visit the project thread for further information on why this makes a difference and how the votes will be counted at the end of the round.

Voting for this round will close on Tuesday August 23, 9am ET.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#2 » by SickMother » Sat Aug 20, 2022 1:29 pm

01 Erving 75-76: 28.7 PER | .569 TS% | 110 TS+ | 17.7 WS | .262 WS/48
01 Erving 75-76 Playoffs?!?: 32.0 PER | .610 TS% | 3.7 WS | .321 WS/48
[a peak so high the NBA absorbed a whole other league to get this guy under their banner. Doctor turned in a top tier do it all regular season, then followed it up with one of thee largest postseason efficiency increases of all time.]

02 Hawkins 67-68: 28.8 PER | .597 TS% | 124 TS+ | 17.5 WS | .273 WS/48
02 Hawkins 67-68 Playoffs?!?: 30.0 PER | .651 TS% | 4.0 WS | .310 WS/48
[for what amounts to spot #13 on my ballot I'll go with maybe thee unluckiest player in basketball history, robbed of his collegiate & early NBA career by completely spurious gambling allegations, then derailed by a knee injury which occurred amidst the ABA Championship in this very season.

but there was never any doubt Connie could ball from the outset as one of the original NYC greats at Rucker Park & being named the best high school player in the country in 1960. As for his 67-68 peak, the Hawk simply did everything. Topped the brand new ABA in PPG on monster efficiency, 2nd in the league in RPG, 3rd in the league in APG. Then took his game to a whole other level in the playoffs, hurting his knee during the Championship series & returning to lead his team to the top in heroic fashion even before Willis Reed (or Giannis) did it.

I get it, the 67-68 ABA is probably the 2nd weakest competition level to receive a vote so far besides 49-50 Mikan, but Hawkins had no alternative, it was the best league available to him due to his illegal blacklisting from the NBA & he thoroughly dominated it across the board. Also think that Connie's peak game works in any era with his mix of size, athleticism and all around skillset.]

***I have a tier break here which goes from #14 to #25 with the following seasons under consideration (in chrono order) 63-64 Oscar, 65-66 West, 82-83 Moses, 94-95 Admiral, 03-04 Garnett, 05-06 Wade, 05-06 Nowitzki, 08-09 Kobe, 16-17 Kawhi, 16-17 Durant, 20-21 Giannis and 21-22 Jokic.***

03 Kawhi 16-17: 27.6 PER | .610 TS% | 111 TS+ | 13.6 WS | .264 WS/48
03 Kawhi 16-17 Playoffs?!?: 31.5 PER | .672 TS% | 2.8 WS | .314 WS/48
[ultimately going with Kawhi for two main reasons, his elite defense as a wing defender is unique among the remaining contenders, and his postseason was shaping up as a best ever candidate with Leonard posting absolutely insane efficiency before Zaza stepped in.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#3 » by Dutchball97 » Sat Aug 20, 2022 1:52 pm

1. 1976 Julius Erving - Dr J had one of the most dominant years ever in North American pro basketball in the final year of the ABA. Where you rank him mostly depends on how good you think the ABA was towards its end. I'd say I'm probably somewhere in the middle. With the likes of Artis Gilmore, Dan Issel, Bobby Jones and George Gervin the ABA had become a serious competitor to the NBA but it didn't become on the same level just yet and since even the mid-70s NBA is generally considered as a relatively weak era, the mid-70s ABA isn't one of the strongest eras either. Overall though this is still a very complete season and it remains a fact you can only beat who is put in front of you. What especially helps him out here is the Nets roster besides Dr J himself wasn't particularly special, which is a huge contrast to the other guys I'm considering around this spot.

2. 1983 Moses Malone - Moses wasn't the best defender but in 83 he does look pretty impressive on that end, while his offense has always been strong. He's hurt somewhat by playing on a historically stacked team but it's hard to go against him winning MVP by a landslide and leading the 76ers to a dominant title. I might be somewhat influenced by winning bias here but we have rather incomplete advanced stats for the early 80s so I'd rather not put too much emphasis on Moses not having an overwhelmingly high BPM.

3. 2006 Dirk Nowitzki - He's my pick for regular season MVP in a year with a lot of players having comparable seasons then in the post-season he was incredible untill being outplayed by Wade in the finals. If the latter didn't happen I'd probably have voted Dirk a couple spots higher but it's hard to overlook as is. This isn't a situation where a team beats up on weaker squads before getting thrown out by the first actual challenge they face though. A first round sweep of the #5 SRS Grizzlies, followed by a tough 7 game win over the #1 SRS team and defending champion Spurs and then a 6 game win over the #4 SRS Suns led by the back to back reigning MVP Nash. Throughout that gauntlet and despite a slightly lesser finals showing Dirk still ended up leading the league in post-season WS and VORP. Overall I think this is a rather overlooked season.

3b. 2011 Dirk Nowitzki
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#4 » by falcolombardi » Sat Aug 20, 2022 2:25 pm

I know the wade vs kobe debate became very forgotten with time but it is still cool they ended right next to each other

Like oscar and west or magic and bird. Giannis and jokic would also have been cool
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#5 » by AEnigma » Sat Aug 20, 2022 3:47 pm

Alright, top twenty for Kobe is pretty fair. Glad we continued the improvement from that disastrous 2015 vote. :lol:

Been continuing to think about this next vote ever since it became reasonably apparent that Kobe would win. Past couple of threads I have marked Dirk, Durant, and Robinson as the next guys to consider, plus maybe one other dark horse. I still generally have endurance/health concerns about Paul and Embiid, and the observation about impact variance across shorter playoff runs (both being second round specialists) similarly holds, as it does even further for Tracy McGrady. Erving… I mean, a major problem relative to his voters is that I do not care about the 1976 playoffs. I think by far his most impressive series was the 1977 Finals, and that idea cuts both ways: I have no massive concerns about his AuPM or whatever, and I do not take the position that he only looked good against a weak league… but I also do not care that he tore through the 1976 Nuggets and put up giant box score numbers to win an ABA title, and that is pretty much his entire case for a top twenty peak. Frankly, if James Silas (best ABA guard that year) had been healthy, I am extremely confident Erving never even reaches the Nuggets. And for Moses, I outright do not see him as being better than other high peak centres left on the board; narrowly winning two of three games against the 1981 Lakers and then winning an easy title by joining a top three roster is pure circumstance at this level, not a convincing argument in itself.

However, Dirk, Durant, and Robinson all have flaws and questions around them too, so I figured it might help to reflect upon the tier breakdowns so far.

1a. Lebron — Across eras, can take pretty much any moderately capable roster to consistent contention.
1b. Jordan, Hakeem, Kareem, Duncan, Wilt, Russell — Across eras, can take decent rosters to consistent contention, and in specific eras can do even better.
2a. Magic, Shaq, Garnett, Walton, Bird, Giannis — Can generally be trusted to take decent rosters to contention in several eras but issues with resilience on one end of the court could cause problems with consistency or era translation.
2b. Kobe, Wade — Can potentially contend with decent rosters but likely need more to do so consistently across eras.
2c. Davis, Kawhi — Can contend across eras on good rosters, and theoretically should be able to contend with decent rosters, but ability to shoulder increased load on worse rosters is questionable at best.
(N/A. Oscar, West — I am unsure whether these two would have been the same grouping as Dirk, Robinson, and Durant, in the same tier but a higher grouping, or in an expansion of this higher second tier.)

The problem I think is that I am now at a tier break. Everyone left is conceivably capable of contending on good rosters across eras and in specific eras on decent rosters, like the 2c grouping, but they run into resilience questions like the 2a grouping. Dirk was the closest, because he clearly proved he could both contend and win with decent to good rosters in at least his own era, whereas Robinson and Durant needed a tier or two higher to prove the same (advantage goes to Robinson in that framing; Duncan is a lot worse than the Warriors, and not having prime Westbrook is a lot worse than having him). However, Dirk had issues with consistency and for reasons previously outlined I think fares worse across eras.

1. Anthony Davis (2020)
On that Dirk note: imagine 2020, or even 2018, Davis on a slightly adjusted (to make up for the spacing decline going from Dirk to Davis) version of that 2011 Mavericks team. As a playoff scorer, prime Davis (in a limited sample) has proved his acumen, and we also know he can be the world’s best defender. Two-way impact like that reliably translates across many different teams and eras. Biggest issue is of course the regular season, but 2018-20 Davis is a pretty strong baseline regardless.
Here Unibro’s take is yet again close to definitive:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2215651#p100682968
2. Kawhi Leonard (2017)
Maybe the greatest postseason scorer shy of Jordan and Lebron. Even out of his prime defensive years is still usually a tough man defender. 2017 does lack consistent playmaking, but I am not sure if I feel strongly enough about 2019 or 2021 to go with those years this early instead. The 2019 series against Philadelphia is one of the greatest individual scoring series I have ever seen, but he declined as the postseason went along, and his regular season was pretty low value comparatively. So we settle on the year when Kawhi pre-Zaza injury looked like potentially the best player in the postseason while having a decent MVP regular season campaign. I do not care much about this specific postseason apart from the sense that it was the year where he first showcased his leap into true superstardom (to the chagrin of Memphis lol), but I do not think he improved much on any skills in 2019 apart from injury avoidance and marginal passing reads. I have concerns about his ability to handle a heavier regular season load on different teams that could need him to shoulder that load to compete, but not enough to put him any lower when considering how valuable he is when healthy. And in any case, 2017 was a pretty healthy regular season in which he had a fair shot at MVP anyway.

3. Steve Nash a.) 2007 b.) 2006 c.) 2005
Once I created a separate tier, Nash felt like a much more palatable choice. He sadly did not win a title — although I believe he could have won with some better luck in 2006 or 2007, or with better front office decisions, or as a secondary player. However, what he did do was consistently spearhead contending teams in a manner that I feel would translate well across eras. Nash’s passing, much like Magic’s, is a brilliant magnifier and maximiser of existing talent. I also think he is an easy top eight shooter in the history of the sport, with a decent claim to second. His shot and shot percentages are every bit as good as anyone’s, they maintain into the postseason, and he created those shots for himself far more than any other top shooter did. This was a massive advantage in his time, but with the spacing revolution I think his gravity would take another leap. Note: I am not suggesting he would be a regular high volume scorer in the modern league, which is a claim I think grossly misinterprets the value and intent of his playstyle; simply going more to his playoff volume and increasing the proportion of threes taken would already represent a notable jump and would even further strain defences that have become hyper-aware of the effects of that type of spacing.

I came across plenty of good commentary reading through past projects and RealGM threads — I may re-post some later to drive conversation — but I am not sure Nash’s peak case is all that mysterious anymore. That Backpicks profile was what, five years ago now? Everyone should have seen those arguments and statistics, even if not everyone is inclined to accept them. His downside is that he is a small guard with at best uninspiring defence, and although that was hardly disastrous in his time, he would certainly be picked on more today (that said, his play awareness should keep him comfortably above the Trae/Isaiah/Lillard tier of abject liability). Like I said when we were comparing him with Jokic, it seems intuitively easier to build a defence with a weak guard than it is to build a defence with a weak big, even if that big provides a higher baseline defensive value than the guard (sadly, running a team of slower-footed giants does not seem to stack as well as you may hope, and teams have yet to develop the approach of abandoning small guards entirely). I think the 2006 Suns have a strong shot at making it past the Mavericks (at which point they would be up against notorious pnr defender Shaq) if they simply had a healthy Kurt Thomas. Nash does not need stars or hot shooting or favourable matchups to do well in the postseason; at his peak, all he really needed was some healthy support.

That all said, at this point I am fine wherever Dirk and Durant and Robinson go. It was specifically Kobe who I really did not want to see undersold. I know Nash and Davis are more of an uphill climb for many.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#6 » by Proxy » Sat Aug 20, 2022 4:44 pm

1. 2020 Anthony Davis
-Explained in other threads

2. 2017 Kevin Durant (2018, 2016, 2014)
-Explained in other threads

3. 1995 David Robinson (1994, 1996)
-Will add on later if I can, but his case has been laid out by others in like 10 other threads now. If I see more evidence of a very notable decline defensively in the PS i'd probably drop him off even further, but generally fine with him around here for now.

Closest afterwards for me will probably be some order of:
1976 Julius Erving
1983 Moses Malone
1998 Karl Malone(?)
2003 Tracy McGrady
2007 Steve Nash
2011 Dirk Nowitzki (My choice if it comes down to a tiebreaker)
2015 Chris Paul
2021 Kawhi Leonard

Not sure where to land with Embiid's health stuff(since he was mentioned before) but he seems maybe comparable to some of those when fully healthy - i'll probably wait for more discussion to revolve around him but i'm in no rush to place him over some other players I haven't named yet either.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#7 » by Samurai » Sat Aug 20, 2022 4:59 pm

Repeating my vote from the previous round:

1. Doctor J 1976. Yes, it was in the ABA. The final year of that league before the merger in 77 and at that point, the ABA was loaded with future Hall of Famers such as David Thompson, Artis Gilmore, George Gervin, Bobby Jones and Dan Issel. No plumbers or milkmen in that group. And Dr J put up one of the best all-around seasons ever. Led the league in scoring at 29.3 ppg. Fifth in rebounding at 11.0 rpg. Seventh in assists at 5.0 apg. Third in steal at 2.5 spg. Seventh in blocks at 1.9 bpg. Tenth in field goal percentage at .507% and sixth in 3-point % at 33%. And led the league in PER, Win Shares, Offensive Win Shares, Defensive Win Shares, WS/48, Box Plus/Minus, VORP, and Usage %. Off the top of my head, the only other player who dominated across that many aspects of the game might be 51 Mikan but we don't have any idea what his blocks or steal numbers were and I'd guess that the competition level in the 76 ABA was higher than the 51 NBA.

2. David Robinson 1994. This was primarily between the Admiral and Mikan, two great centers who played over 40 years apart. I have both over 77 Walton due to durability; Mikan played all 68 games (it was a 68 game season) and the Admiral played in 80 of 82 RS games, whereas Walton had 17 games in which he scored 0 points, grabbed 0 boards, set 0 screens and completed 0 passes. As great as he was in the other 65, that's too big a gap when we are comparing to guys that gave comparable impact for so many more minutes. While I don't think 94 was quite DRob's defensive peak and his rebounding was clearly below his peak years, he was still All Defensive 2nd team that season and it was his best offensive season. If he were better than 14th best in rebounds/game, this would have been an easier selection for me. I was set to vote for Mikan but I always struggle with how much to ding him for his era. So I flipped a coin and D-Rob won the flip! But Mikan will be my next selection.

3. George Mikan 1950. I said that he would be my next selection so here he is. Most dominant 2-way player relative to his peers of anyone left. Led the league in scoring, Win Shares and Defensive WS. Likely would have led the league in rebounds and blocks if those stats were recorded then and would have been the clear favorite for Defensive Player of the Year is such an award existed. There is no question whatsoever that he was the best of his era, more so than anyone left. In terms of in-era dominance, he has a very good case for being the GOAT. As is, he may well be the most impactful player ever, given that the 24-second rule was established largely due to Mikan's dominance and the widening of the key was dubbed "the Mikan rule". A good argument can be made that the introduction of the shot clock is the single biggest and most influential rule change since the NBA started. The question is how much do we penalize him for playing in a weaker era. This is where I would draw the line at continuing to penalize him.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#8 » by No-more-rings » Sat Aug 20, 2022 5:04 pm

Dr J is getting kind of hosed down here. The project 3 years ago, he went 12th. Now it’s possible he ends up like 21st or 22nd. One or both of Dr J and Drob will end up out of the top 20 which is interesting. Drob went from 12th to 18th, to now whatever. Dr J I just think is sort of a hard guy to evaluate peaking so long ago and in the ABA. With Drob, I feel like more people are starting to realize he’s just not that great of a centerpiece come playoff time relatively speaking. His argument for being top 20 at all is pretty much entirely how great he was in the regular season.

I feel like Drob vs Davis is a really interesting discussion since those are some of the best bigs still left. Not sure who i’d take there. I trust Drob more as a floor raiser sure, while with Davis I mean lowkey he was a pretty resilient playoff performer when healthy. His samples of greatness just aren’t really huge. Though not sure how much it matters for a one year peak. I wouldn’t have as much confidence with Davis as I would someone like Dirk or Kawhi as my leader, but as a 1b type guy he’s arguably better than Drob at it.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#9 » by AEnigma » Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:06 pm

No-more-rings wrote:Dr J is getting kind of hosed down here. The project 3 years ago, he went 12th. Now it’s possible he ends up like 21st or 22nd.

I have said this in earlier threads, but it surprises me it took this long for Erving to start falling. The bar for discourse around him in those prior projects felt far lower than for most other players. The most consistent reasoning may well have been something like, “His numbers are just undeniable.” For voters focusing on peaks relative to their given year or era, that is fine enough, but for him to build a consensus from voters typically trying to take a more holistic approach, it looks like a strange outlier.

I feel like Drob vs Davis is a really interesting discussion since those are some of the best bigs still left. Not sure who i’d take there. I trust Drob more as a floor raiser sure, while with Davis I mean lowkey he was a pretty resilient playoff performer when healthy. His samples of greatness just aren’t really huge. Though not sure how much it matters for a one year peak. I wouldn’t have as much confidence with Davis as I would someone like Dirk or Kawhi as my leader, but as a 1b type guy he’s arguably better than Drob at it.

Agree.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#10 » by hgz24 » Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:18 pm

AEnigma wrote:Alright, top twenty for Kobe is pretty fair. Glad we continued the improvement from that disastrous 2015 vote. :lol:

Been continuing to think about this next vote ever since it became reasonably apparent that Kobe would win. Past couple of threads I have marked Dirk, Durant, and Robinson as the next guys to consider, plus maybe one other dark horse. I still generally have endurance/health concerns about Paul and Embiid, and the observation about impact variance across shorter playoff runs (both being second round specialists) similarly holds, as it does even further for Tracy McGrady. Erving… I mean, a major problem relative to his voters is that I do not care about the 1976 playoffs. I think by far his most impressive series was the 1977 Finals, and that idea cuts both ways: I have no massive concerns about his AuPM or whatever, and I do not take the position that he only looked good against a weak league… but I also do not care that he tore through the 1976 Nuggets and put up giant box score numbers to win an ABA title, and that is pretty much his entire case for a top twenty peak. Frankly, if James Silas (second in MVP voting that year) had been healthy, I am extremely confident Erving never even reaches the the Nuggets. And for Moses, I outright do not see him as being better than other high peak centres left on the board; narrowly winning two of three games against the 1981 Lakers and then winning an easy title by joining a top three roster is pure circumstance at this level, not a convincing argument in itself.

However, Dirk, Durant, and Robinson all have flaws and questions around them too, so I figured it might help to reflect upon the tier breakdowns so far.

1a. Lebron — Across eras, can take pretty much any moderately capable roster to consistent contention.
1b. Jordan, Hakeem, Kareem, Duncan, Wilt, Russell — Across eras, can take decent rosters to consistent contention, and in specific eras can do even better.
2a. Magic, Shaq, Garnett, Walton, Bird, Giannis — Can generally be trusted to take decent rosters to contention in several eras but issues with resilience on one end of the court could cause problems with consistency or era translation.
2b. Kobe, Wade — Can potentially contend with decent rosters but likely need more to do so consistently across eras.
2c. Davis, Kawhi — Can contend across eras on good rosters, and theoretically should be able to contend with decent rosters, but ability to shoulder increased load on worse rosters is questionable at best.
(N/A. Oscar, West — I am unsure whether these two would have been the same grouping as Dirk, Robinson, and Durant, in the same tier but a higher grouping, or in an expansion of this higher second tier.)

The problem I think is that I am now at a tier break. Everyone left is conceivably capable of contending on good rosters across eras and in specific eras on decent rosters, like the 2c grouping, but they run into resilience questions like the 2a grouping. Dirk was the closest, because he clearly proved he could both contend and win with decent to good rosters in at least his own era, whereas Robinson and Durant needed a tier or two higher to prove the same (advantage goes to Robinson in that framing; Duncan is a lot worse than the Warriors, and not having prime Westbrook is a lot worse than having him). However, Dirk had issues with consistency and for reasons previously outlined I think fares worse across eras.

1. Anthony Davis (2020)
On that Dirk note: imagine 2020, or even 2018, Davis on a slightly adjusted (to make up for the spacing decline going from Dirk to Davis) version of that 2011 Mavericks team. As a playoff scorer, prime Davis (in a limited sample) has proved his acumen, and we also know he can be the world’s best defender. Two-way impact like that reliably translates across many different teams and eras. Biggest issue is of course the regular season, but 2018-20 Davis is a pretty strong baseline regardless.
Here Unibro’s take is yet again close to definitive:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2215651#p100682968
2. Kawhi Leonard (2017)
Maybe the greatest postseason scorer shy of Jordan and Lebron. Even out of his prime defensive years is still usually a tough man defender. 2017 does lack consistent playmaking, but I am not sure if I feel strongly enough about 2019 or 2021 to go with those years this early instead. The 2019 series against Philadelphia is one of the greatest individual scoring series I have ever seen, but he declined as the postseason went along, and his regular season was pretty low value comparatively. So we settle on the year when Kawhi pre-Zaza injury looked like potentially the best player in the postseason while having a decent MVP regular season campaign. I do not care much about this specific postseason apart from the sense that it was the year where he first showcased his leap into true superstardom (to the chagrin of Memphis lol), but I do not think he improved much on any skills in 2019 apart from injury avoidance and marginal passing reads. I have concerns about his ability to handle a heavier regular season load on different teams that could need him to shoulder that load to compete, but not enough to put him any lower when considering how valuable he is when healthy. And in any case, 2017 was a pretty healthy regular season in which he had a fair shot at MVP anyway.

3. Steve Nash a.) 2007 b.) 2006 c.) 2005
Once I created a separate tier, Nash felt like a much more palatable choice. He sadly did not win a title — although I believe he could have won with some better luck in 2006 or 2007, or with better front office decisions, or as a secondary player. However, what he did do was consistently spearhead contending teams in a manner that I feel would translate well across eras. Nash’s passing, much like Magic’s, is a brilliant magnifier and maximiser of existing talent. I also think he is an easy top eight shooter in the history of the sport, with a decent claim to second. His shot and shot percentages are every bit as good as anyone’s, they maintain into the postseason, and he created those shots for himself far more than any other top shooter did. This was a massive advantage in his time, but with the spacing revolution I think his gravity would take another leap. Note: I am not suggesting he would be a regular high volume scorer in the modern league, which is a claim I think grossly misinterprets the value and intent of his playstyle; simply going more to his playoff volume and increasing the proportion of threes taken would already represent a notable jump and would even further strain defences that have become hyper-aware of the effects of that type of spacing.

I came across plenty of good commentary reading through past projects and RealGM threads — I may re-post some later to drive conversation — but I am not sure Nash’s peak case is all that mysterious anymore. That Backpicks profile was what, five years ago now? Everyone should have seen those arguments and statistics, even if not everyone is inclined to accept them. His downside is that he is a small guard with at best uninspiring defence, and although that was hardly disastrous in his time, he would certainly be picked on more today (although his play awareness should keep him comfortably above the Trae/Isaiah/Lillard tier of abject liability). Like I said when we were comparing him with Jokic, it seems intuitively easier to build a defence with a weak guard than it is to build a defence with a weak big, even if that big provides a higher baseline defensive value than the guard (sadly, running a team of slower-footed giants does not seem to stack as well as you may hope, and teams have yet to develop the approach of abandoning small guards entirely). I think the 2006 Suns have a strong shot at making it past the Mavericks (at which point they would be up against notorious pnr defender Shaq) if they simply had a healthy Kurt Thomas. Nash does not need stars or hot shooting or favourable matchups to do well in the postseason; at his peak, all he really needed was some healthy support.

That all said, at this point I am fine wherever Dirk and Durant and Robinson go. It was specifically Kobe who I really did not want to see undersold. I know Nash and Davis are more of an uphill climb for many.




I think this forum is too harped up on kds playoff scoring on okc ignoring that he played on a team with no skilled role players, bad coaching, and arguably worse spacing ever relative to era, yet he was still from 2012-2016, 28-29per75 on +5.5TS (Kobe prime level) good in those situations. Kawhi isn’t rising on OKC with that spacing. He also faced way better defenses in that span.


I just don’t get the thought process behind kawhi and AD being a tier higher in terms of contending with decent rosters.

Kd plays more positions on offense than kawhi, Kd is a better pick and roll player than kawhi, better finisher, much better shooter, better offball, better in isolation and has more overall gravity as a scoring threat. Much better passer too. Kd just means more to teams.

AD missed the playoffs most of his years without Lebron and played a pure play finishing type role in 2020, he would struggle without a playmaker in different contexts. kawhi has played on teams that can go 17-5 without him (raptors). Spurs won against Houston by 40 points when he got injured too in 2017 game 6. Clippers made the 8th seed without him playing all year. Durant has been a significantly better floor raiser than both in his career, he won 59 games with a very flawed team in 2014 and a top 7 offense. Hell in his third season, he carried okc to 50 wins with Westbrook and harden not being huge impact guys. Last postseason, he took the champs to 7 floor raising on both ends. Like I don’t get the confidence in Ad and kawhi over him by a tier in terms of roster contention , when he’s simply more impactful than both due to his scoring /offense.

Like

2011: WCF
2012: Finals
2014: WCF, ibaka injured
2016: WCF, lost to 73 win team

OKC also wasn’t very deep or had good coaching, mostly a two man operation. When Kd left, the next three years they didn’t win a single away playoff game, even after being replaced by a top 13 player in PG. I trust KD to take a team to contention way more than Kawhi and AD given it isn’t a perfect situation. He has them beat pretty significantly as both floor and ceiling raisers. Would have him Kobe wade tier
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#11 » by homecourtloss » Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:40 pm

No-more-rings wrote:Dr J is getting kind of hosed down here. The project 3 years ago, he went 12th. Now it’s possible he ends up like 21st or 22nd. One or both of Dr J and Drob will end up out of the top 20 which is interesting. Drob went from 12th to 18th, to now whatever. Dr J I just think is sort of a hard guy to evaluate peaking so long ago and in the ABA. With Drob, I feel like more people are starting to realize he’s just not that great of a centerpiece come playoff time relatively speaking. His argument for being top 20 at all is pretty much entirely how great he was in the regular season.

I feel like Drob vs Davis is a really interesting discussion since those are some of the best bigs still left. Not sure who i’d take there. I trust Drob more as a floor raiser sure, while with Davis I mean lowkey he was a pretty resilient playoff performer when healthy. His samples of greatness just aren’t really huge. Though not sure how much it matters for a one year peak. I wouldn’t have as much confidence with Davis as I would someone like Dirk or Kawhi as my leader, but as a 1b type guy he’s arguably better than Drob at it.


It is really interesting to see, and of course speaks to the variance inherent with a small pool of voters. I think for Dr. J, some of it has to do with the on/off data that was made available where his numbers are really underwhelming from 1977 to 1983. But then you have someone like David Robinson who’s numbers are actually the other way and yet he’s dropped in this ranking.
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#12 » by AEnigma » Sat Aug 20, 2022 7:24 pm

hgz24 wrote:I think this forum is too harped up on kds playoff scoring on okc ignoring that he played on a team with no skilled role players

Assuming this is meant to be independent of spacing — based on what?
bad coaching

Ehh relative to Kawhi that is fair enough, but no I would not say the Thunder had especially egregious coaching, nor would I say Durant has done much since leaving to showcase himself as a particularly coachable player.

and arguably worse spacing ever relative to era. Kawhi isn’t rising on OKC with that spacing.

The only year this assertion has any semblance of a case is 2016, and that shift occurred as part of an effort to improve the defence around Durant. Maybe if Durant had been better on that end, it would not have been as necessary.

He also faced way better defenses in that span.

After 2019 not sure anyone should be concerned about Kawhi’s ability to handle top defences.

I just don’t get the thought process behind kawhi and AD being a tier higher in terms of contending with decent rosters.

It is not an argument based in regular season production or individual ability to drive offence. For postseason production, it is about resilience and two-way impact. You can disagree with the former via spacing and coaching context or whatever and you can disagree with the later by simply preferring his offence that much more, but outright not understanding the thought feels like low effort to do so.

Kd plays more positions on offense than kawhi

What, in the sense he can theoretically play small ball centre?

Kd is a better pick and roll player than kawhi, better finisher, much better shooter, better offball, better in isolation and has more overall gravity as a scoring threat. Much better passer too. Kd just means more to teams.

In the regular season I agree, but in the postseason I am more skeptical and I think it is at least close enough that Kawhi’s defence can make up for any shrunk remaining offensive advantage for Durant.

AD missed the playoffs most of his years without Lebron

Oh so now team and coaching context does not matter?

and played a pure play finishing type role in 2020,

Yeah I do not think you actually bothered to follow the Davis discussion, that is pretty inaccurate.

he would struggle without a playmaker in different contexts.

Regardless of whether that is true (see immediately preceding comment), what does it mean to have absolutely no playmaker? Davis’s sample without having any all-time playmaker is substantially larger than Durant’s!

kawhi has played on teams that can go 17-5 without him (raptors). Spurs won against Houston by 40 points when he got injured too in 2017 game 6.

Again, why bother commenting when you clearly have not bothered to follow the discussion. This is the twentieth thread in this project; none of the discussion is occurring in a vacuum.

Clippers made the 8th seed without him playing all year.

They were about as good as the 2015 Thunder were without Durant, and about as good as the Thunder were generally in minutes without Durant once Westbrook came into his own (2011-).

Durant has been a significantly better floor raiser than both in his career, he won 59 games with a very flawed team in 2014 and a top 7 offense. Hell in his third season, he carried okc to 50 wins with Westbrook and harden not being huge impact guys.

Sure, although I still find it funny how you are ignoring Davis’s worse situation here.

Last postseason, he took the champs to 7 floor raising on both ends.

Yep, he had the two best games of his career and worked against adversity, but it was also not all him, and that was hardly a consistent output. Which is part of the point.

Like I don’t get the confidence in Ad and kawhi over him by a tier in terms of roster contention , when he’s simply more impactful than both due to his scoring /offense.

And how are we assessing that “impact”. Regular season team records?

2011: WCF

So the bracket does not matter? D-Will, Lillard, and Carmelo did that with worse teams, when are they showing up?

2012: Finals

With two star guards.

2014: WCF, ibaka injured

Yeah Ibaka would have fixed those blowout losses without him.

2016: WCF, lost to 73 win team

With Westbrook being arguably even more important.

OKC also wasn’t very deep or had good coaching, mostly a two man operation.

Poor Durant, had a second man. :cry:

When Kd left, the next three years they didn’t win a single away playoff game, even after being replaced by a top 13 player in PG.

Lol now you just sound like a fanboy, what happened to your “context”?

I trust KD to take a team to contention way more than Kawhi and AD given it isn’t a perfect situation.

Based on him only winning in the most perfect situation anyone has ever had?

He has them beat pretty significantly as both floor

Again, probably, to the extent neither of the other two can handle the same regular season load.

and ceiling raisers.

Based on what? In 2018 that “ceiling raiser” nearly cost what should have been an unbeatable team a title.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#13 » by No-more-rings » Sat Aug 20, 2022 7:38 pm

With Durant, he still had Westbrook those years, and even if they weren’t the greatest fit I do think it helped KD in the sense he didn’t have to shoulder as much ball handing/playmaking duties.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#14 » by trelos6 » Sat Aug 20, 2022 8:42 pm

20. David Robinson. 1994. Not his defensive best, but pretty close to it. And definitely his offensive peak. 29.4 pp75 at +4.9rTS%

21. Kawhi Leonard. 2016-17. He took a big step up to the offensive machine he is today. And his defence took a small step back from its stratospheric levels, but it was still there on key possessions. 29 pp75 at +5.7 rTS%

22. Kevin Durant. 2017. 28 pp75 at +10 rTS%. I know Curry was grabbing the attention, giving KD easier looks, but we don’t dock Magic for playing with Kareem, Jordan for playing with Scottie and Rodman (offensive rebounds), or Kobe for playing with Shaq.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#15 » by falcolombardi » Sat Aug 20, 2022 8:55 pm

DraymondGold wrote:
Concerns with Moses: He's gotten some traction, but his defense is pretty bad (particularly among the bigs in this tier) and his passing is atrocious. He posts pretty poor impact metrics for this tier too ( https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=100727032#p100727032 ). It's great that he got a championship, but these limitations cause me serious concern from a team building perspective and a time-machine perspective.


This was in the previous thread but may as well ask it here now

What makes you think moses was a bad defender? I am not a gamefilm expert on him but a dude who replaced caldwell jones (seen as a very good defebsive player) and the sixers defense improved seems unlikely to have been a negative on D, let alone a huge one
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#16 » by falcolombardi » Sat Aug 20, 2022 9:26 pm

AEnigma wrote:
hgz24 wrote:
and arguably worse spacing ever relative to era. Kawhi isn’t rising on OKC with that spacing.


2014: WCF, ibaka injured

Yeah Ibaka would have fixed those blowout losses without him.

2016: WCF, lost to 73 win team

With Westbrook being arguably even more important.

OKC also wasn’t very deep or had good coaching, mostly a two man operation.

Poor Durant, had a second man. :cry:

When Kd left, the next three years they didn’t win a single away playoff game, even after being replaced by a top 13 player in PG.

Lol now you just sound like a fanboy, what happened to your “context”?



Re: spacing

Okc didnt have worst of all time spacing, back in the early 2010's shooting bigs were still relatively unusual.

Okc had ibaka who as early as 2011 was developing a smooth midrange and the start of his 3 point shooting, he was actually a good spacing player for his position in 11-14 and by 16 when durant was healthy for his last okc season he had become a serious 3 point threat

We played perkins, but most teams back then didnr have good jumpshooting centers

And then we had harden/kevin martin (strong shooting) and thabo sefolosha (very solid corner guy, shot 40% a season in 2013). Westbrook not being a 3 point range guy ar the guard spot hurts spacing but it doesnt make okc a historically bad outlier

Re:ibaka

I am not saying okc would have beat san antonio but i think you guys sleep a bit on ibaka importance in that team he was our only guy 4-5 who could hit a jumper and a key defensive piece and third scorer role

Re: thunder depth

Have to disagree again.

2012 you had harden as am all star off the bench and westbrook

2013 durant had a star in westbrook (reg season) but also a nascent ibaka as a shooter/finisher and a excelent shooter in kevin martin. Sefolosha was a ok shooter too and shot 40% from 3 in the season

2014 in regular season is true durant had impressive floor raising in the regular season, no disagreements there

2016 i think okc weak spacing obscures how great that team was at offensive rebounding with kanter/adams/westbrook/roberson. They played a +8 offense at full health per ben taylor data and the role players rebounding was a big part

We usually dont think of offensive rebounders as offensive help the way shooters are. But the bulls late 90's dinasty great offense literslly was built on offensive rebounding giving them most of their separation from the field

Okc was not exactly trying to surround durant with defense. Kanter and waiters kinda go against that purpose. It was a small market team with two supermaxes trying to get whst it could for depth

We had adams offensive rebounding and ibaka shooting but for the most part the offense was all westbrook and durant. Which is why okc gave minutes to an inneficient gunner like waiters cause it was deseperate for anythingh resembling a third guy who could create his shot.

Kanter off rebounding and ok finishing made him a useful offensive piece off the bench too

In hindsight Playing a defensive specialist instead lg waiters (starter minutes roberson?) And a defensive player in place of kanter may have been a better bet for a more balanced team. But the results are hard to argue with that the roster was fairly effecitive

Re: paul george and westbrook didnt win a series

Ehh, paul george was not there in 2017. Then by 2019 westbrook decline was essentially starting (it actually started in 18' but we were in full copium back then it was just a down year and he surely would remembet how to shot free throws after the rule change messed up his routine)
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#17 » by AEnigma » Sat Aug 20, 2022 10:31 pm

falcolombardi wrote:Okc was not exactly trying to surround durant with defense. Kanter and waiters kinda go against that purpose. It was a small market team with two supermaxes trying to get whst it could for depth

We had adams offensive rebounding and ibaka shooting but for the most part the offense was all westbrook and durant. Which is why okc gave minutes to an inneficient gunner like waiters cause it was deseperate for anythingh resembling a third guy who could create his shot.

Kanter off rebounding and ok finishing made him a useful offensive piece off the bench too

In hindsight Playing a defensive specialist instead lg waiters (starter minutes roberson?) And a defensive player in place of kanter may have been a better bet for a more balanced team. But the results are hard to argue with that the roster was fairly effecitive

Alright, I was admittedly being a bit flippant about Durant’s defence being the reason the roster evolved that way. Nevertheless, I would push back on this slightly (agree with pretty much the rest of the post). First, Waiters was not that bad a defender (although he was often a bonehead) — especially when we consider his precursors in that role were Reggie Jackson and K-Mart. He had that oh so attractive “potential” and could put it together enough to make an impact, but he lacked reliability (which I am sure much have left an especially negative impression to a Thunder fan). Second, they did give a good chunk of minutes to Roberson (albeit more out of necessity than deliberate strategy), and even though his role was not that meaningfully different from Thabo’s role, those extra minutes do represent a defensive skew in my eyes. And third, I think the interest in Oladipo and Horford immediately after that postseason at least partially suggests an even further commitment to move in a defensive direction.

Fair point on Kanter though. He was unplayable against most strong guards, and he alone potentially offsets those marginal improvements to the starting rotation.
MyUniBroDavis wrote:Some people are clearly far too overreliant on data without context and look at good all in one or impact numbers and get wowed by that rather than looking at how a roster is actually built around a player
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#18 » by f4p » Sat Aug 20, 2022 10:45 pm

AEnigma wrote:And for Moses, I outright do not see him as being better than other high peak centres left on the board; narrowly winning two of three games against the 1981 Lakers and then winning an easy title by joining a top three roster is pure circumstance at this level, not a convincing argument in itself.


not to always debate with you in these threads, but what else does he need to do? he won 3 mvp's in 5 years. ok, so to validate those as not just a bunch of scoring and rebounding, he better have some team results. well, he made the finals twice and won once. you're the second i've seen mention it was only 3 games against the lakers. i'm not sure what we're supposed to do with that. magic and kareem knew it was a 3 game series as well and were the defending champs, they should show up. and the loss was also close, so he was no closer to losing than to winning 3 straight (if the series was that long). as a significant underdog. and then he still had 2 great series just to make the finals with a 40 win team, which i believe is the only sub-0.500 team to ever make the finals (at least in the modern era). so he floor raises like crazy. then a few years later, he ceiling raises like crazy with a dominant title run. and as i've tried to show, the 76ers were clearly less "2017 warriors" and more "team with a rapidly closing window". i believe the results in the subsequent years show this. even the results in 1983 show it, with moses far outpacing his teammates in the playoffs. Dr. J fell off in the playoffs and never did any better going forward. moses rescued his nba legacy with that title.

just digging into his early rockets years. the rockets had the #1 offense in 1979. was it thanks to a plethora of sweet shooters? well, moses had a TS Add of +250. the rest of the rockets were at +20. and they were 3rd in OReb%. this seems like it was mostly moses being efficient and grabbing all the misses.

the 1980 rockets were 4th in offense. moses was +107 TS Add. the rest of the rockets were -76. 1st in OReb%.

the 1981 rockets were 9th in offense. moses was +192 TS Add. the rest of the rockets were -200! only 10th in OReb%.

the 1982 rockets were still 8th in offense. moses was +166 TS Add. the rest of the rockets were -474!!!!!! back to 1st in OReb% (and this was hungry work because obviously there were a whole lot of misses to chase down).

i don't know what moses was doing on offense, but he was somehow producing offenses ranging from above-average with atrocious offensive teammates to league-leading with just decent efficiency teammates. while mixing in a finals appearance with teammates who could barely get a positive BPM between them. and he won several MVP's. then had one of the greatest seasons ever.

like i just don't see how 2007 steve nash is supposed to supplant 1983 moses malone in nba history.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#19 » by f4p » Sun Aug 21, 2022 12:26 am

also, i'm not sure how nash is getting votes over someone like harden. 2005-2007 nash doesn't seem very comparable to 2018-2020 harden. these are all-time hard-carry regular seasons followed by playoffs with at least as good results with at least as tough opponents (i.e. tougher).

2005-7 Nash vs 2018-2020 Harden
RS PER: 23 vs 29.9
RS TS%: 63.1% vs 62.0%
RS WS48: 0.216 vs 0.265
RS BPM: 5.2 vs 10.2

these don't really seem like equal players to where we can just punch in some impact stats and team rORtg's and call it a day. harden put up volume like we've hardly seen in recent years while still dominating rate statistics. led the league in WS all 3 seasons, WS48 once, BPM twice, and VORP twice (led all of those but VORP in his MVP season just behind Lebron). and while the suns were obviously great on offense with a very offensively slanted roster, it's not like the team offensive results sucked for harden. 1st in 2018 with chris paul only playing 58 games and with enough defensive talent to finish 6th. 2nd in 2019 with chris paul again playing only 58 games, and not even playing well this time. 6th in 2020 with russell westbrook (unfortunately?) playing 57 games (out of 72).

ok, but f4p harden sucks in the playoffs i can hear you saying. well, he definitely struggles. but let's see him vs nash.

Nash vs Harden RS vs PS Differential
PER: -0.8 (-3.5%) vs -4.1 (-13.7%)
TS%: -2.9% vs -4.3% (so not exactly great for Nash either)
WS48: -0.056 (-25.9%) vs -0.068 (-25.7%)
BPM: -0.8 (-15.4%) vs -1.7 (-16.7%)

so we do see slightly less fall off from nash, though very close in WS48 and BPM. and it's not like nash had harder opponents. even without the obvious adjustment that should be made to the 2018/2019 warriors for slacking hard in the regular season (5.8 SRS in 2018, seriously?, #11 defense before having the #1 playoff defense?), harden's opponents have slighlty better SRS (4.7 vs 4.4) and defensive ranking (9.3 vs 9.4, wish i had written down rDRtg). adjust the warriors to their true talent and harden is facing quite a bit tougher opponents and defenses. and anyways, this is like harden falling off the roof and landing on the balcony while nash fell out a first floor window and landed on the ground. less fall, still lower.

the overall numbers are still:
2005-7 Nash vs 2018-2020 Harden
PS PER: 22.2 vs 25.8
PS TS%: 60.2% vs 57.7%
PS WS48: 0.160 vs 0.197
PS BPM: 4.4 vs 8.5

but steve nash had to face the spurs dynasty. well, harden got the even more ridiculous durant warriors in 2018 and 2019 and then also the 2020 lakers. but amare got suspended for 1 game. well, welcome to the annual chris paul hamstring tear for 2 games. but they still got to game 6 against the spurs in a round 2 that was the de facto finals. well, game 7, conference finals, also de facto finals but without needing the 67 win mavs to choke to make it the de facto finals.

harden's got a 2018 no doubt about it mvp where he practically led in every stat. the 2018 rockets are significantly better than any of the suns teams. when actually healthy, 44-5 with a +11.0 SRS with harden and cp3 playing. and while very well constructed, i wouldn't exactly call harden plus 33 year old chris paul plus clint capela some absurd collection of talent to dominate as much as they did. then they got closer to winning than any suns team, and almost took down one of the best teams ever before an injury that obviously can't be blamed on harden. and then harden followed it up with an even crazier 2019 season with a great series against the warriors, and then a 2020 playoffs where his numbers are practically the same as that pesky #11 peak season. so not sure how nash beats harden, especially with how much this board seems to like the regular season. harden was #31 in the last top 100, and i don't think that included 2020, and obviously as an active player, he is theoretically getting more value from his peak than a retired player, so it will be weird if his peak doesn't beat his ranking.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#20 » by AEnigma » Sun Aug 21, 2022 12:42 am

f4p wrote:
AEnigma wrote:And for Moses, I outright do not see him as being better than other high peak centres left on the board; narrowly winning two of three games against the 1981 Lakers and then winning an easy title by joining a top three roster is pure circumstance at this level, not a convincing argument in itself.

not to always debate with you in these threads

Hey, something needs to drive discussion lol.

but what else does he need to do?

In 1983? Nothing. The team could have been even better, but fair to point out that is pretty meaningless when you cruise through both the regular and post- seasons. So then we ask, what about other years? Did he take some massive leap in 1983? Or was he pretty much the same player as in 1982 but now on a great team, and at that point we should be asking whether other 1982-level seasons could have done the same.

If you are voting for “completeness” of a season, Moses should rank highly, yes. I am not doing that though, nor am I confident everyone taking that approach is fully committed to doing so. You are voting for Kawhi over him, but that was not a more complete season (regardless of the injury). And to be clear, I say that not as a “gotcha” so much as highlighting that “completeness” has its limits for everyone.

won 3 mvp's in 5 years.

We know what you think of Nash’s MVPs, so I doubt you would think this makes for a meaningful argument in reverse. The other Malone was a two-time MVP as well. I do not think 1979 or 1982 were exactly indefensible, but winning MVP in itself is just mildly correlative with strong peaks, not an equivalent. Westbrook and Harden have MVPs and Kawhi does not, and both finished higher in Kawhi’s peak season. But we take Kawhi, and if pressed I think a good chunk of those Westbrook/Harden voters could even agree that Kawhi was more trustworthy in the postseason. Like, I know you are mostly saying this rhetorically, but it is a common argument: three MVPs therefore top peak.

ok, so to validate those as not just a bunch of scoring and rebounding, he better have some team results. well, he made the finals twice and won once.

But here too what does that say. Iverson won MVP, made the Finals, and “was the 1 in 15-1” against the 2001 Lakers. Is that an all-time peak? Many think so on those merits, and maybe you are planning on making a case for him later (you seem to value scoring efficiency though so I would be surprised), but again we should recognise those are not arguments in themselves.

you're the second i've seen mention it was only 3 games against the lakers. i'm not sure what we're supposed to do with that. magic and kareem knew it was a 3 game series as well and were the defending champs, they should show up. and the loss was also close, so he was no closer to losing than to winning 3 straight (if the series was that long). as a significant underdog.

All true. But we highlight the fact it was a 2-1 series because that is fundamentally different from and more noisy than longer series. The elimination element means it is worth more than 2-1 stretches elsewhere, but it still leaves it more prone to the phenomenon of “stuff happens”. Check out the 1975 Nets for an even more extreme version of what happened to the Lakers.

and then he still had 2 great series

Ehhhhhhhhhh. Do you really think those series stand out at this level? The Spurs series went seven games and required Calvin Murphy to briefly turn into a prime Ray Allen analogue, and they were nothing special.

just to make the finals with a 40 win team, which i believe is the only sub-0.500 team to ever make the finals (at least in the modern era).

And funnily enough if they lost in the conference finals that would have happened regardless.

so he floor raises like crazy.

So what you are doing here is essentially saying, “Look, he can take a forty-win team to the playoff!”… while ignoring he would have been a key reason they only had forty wins. Because honestly this is not that bad a roster. Calvin Murphy was a good offensive player (as we saw against the Spurs). Robert Reid was versatile, a jack-of-all-trades connective tissue player who made life tough for opposing wings and was a reliable third option. Billy Paultz was fine, if long in the tooth (also true of Rudy T). Tom Henderson had recent experience as a key part of a title roster. So it is worth reiterating what they actually did to reach the Finals: they beat a negative SRS team, a 2 SRS team in seven games, and the defending champions 2-1. Do we really care that much about those first two accomplishments? I think it basically comes down to that 2-1 series win, and yeah, good for them, but stuff happens in small samples. I do not think that is anything close to Lebron’s 2007 run, but in the sense that series is the bulk of the argument, is it that much more notable than Dikembe’s 1994 upset of an 8 SRS team? Rick Barry won a title sweeping a 6.5 SRS Bullets team, but you essentially said you had concerns with his quality of competition. Why does Moses’s not matter to the same extent this year? Also, worth noting it is not as if Moses had anything to do with how abysmally Magic played or how many free throws the Lakers missed uncharacteristically.

then a few years later, he ceiling raises like crazy with a dominant title run.

Does he ceiling raise “like crazy”? It is a decent ceiling raise. I agree the regular season understates the real improvement made. But just for a contemporary comparison, take the 1980 Bucks. 29-27 at the trade deadline. They make a move for an older Bob Lanier; well past his peak, getting close to the tail end of his prime… and they go 20-6 to close out the season, grabbing the division title and then losing narrowly to the defending champion Sonics. Seems like a pretty good ceiling raise, and 1980 Bob Lanier is not at the level of 1982/83 Moses Malone (although 1974 Bob Lanier…)

Or even better, what about Anthony Davis? Traded to a Lakers team that misses the playoffs and was barely .500 with Lebron… then they immediately grab the 1-seed and win an easy title. And this is without me going with the more trollish examples of Rasheed Wallace or Dave DeBusschere, who similarly elevated their teams into champions.

as i've tried to show, the 76ers were clearly less "2017 warriors" and more "team with a rapidly closing window". i believe the results in the subsequent years show this. even the results in 1983 show it, with moses far outpacing his teammates in the playoffs. Dr. J fell off in the playoffs and never did any better going forward. moses rescued his nba legacy with that title.

Agreed… but even still, it was a good team. Probably finish top three in the conference all the same.

just digging into his early rockets years. the rockets had the #1 offense in 1979. was it thanks to a plethora of sweet shooters? well, moses had a TS Add of +250. the rest of the rockets were at +20. and they were 3rd in OReb%. this seems like it was mostly moses being efficient and grabbing all the misses.

the 1980 rockets were 4th in offense. moses was +107 TS Add. the rest of the rockets were -76. 1st in OReb%.

the 1981 rockets were 9th in offense. moses was +192 TS Add. the rest of the rockets were -200! only 10th in OReb%.

the 1982 rockets were still 8th in offense. moses was +166 TS Add. the rest of the rockets were -474!!!!!! back to 1st in OReb% (and this was hungry work because obviously there were a whole lot of misses to chase down).

A.) Comparing efficiencies like that is just 1962 Wilt logic.

B.) Being inefficient does not mean bad. He had good spacers and passers on the teams too.

C.) The 1977 Rockets were even better. Did Moses peak as a rookie?

D.) How were the team’s defences?

E.) This in general is just a strange approach without knowing how it compares to anyone else. 2014 Durant was +384 and his collective teammates were +8. 2006 Dirk was +194 and his teammates were +13. 2008 Kobe was +118 and his teammates were -65. 2003 McGrady was +192 and his teammates were -89. I guess you are probably happy to draw a comparison with Moses to all of them, but 1994 Robinson was +203 and his teammates were -60, and he was a much better passer (and obviously defender) than Robinson. 1990 Ewing was +246 and his teammates were -84, and he was a slightly better passer (and obviously much better defender). 2011 Howard was +217 and his teammates were -15; even worse passer but again much better defender. 2000 Mourning was +212 and his teammates were -70; similarly bad passer, again much better defender. 1974 Bob Lanier was +148 and his teammates were -112, and 1976 he was +177 and his teammates were -135; he too was a much better passer (and more arguably defender). What does any of this tell us?????

i don't know what moses was doing on offense, but he was somehow producing

He was scoring effectively, attracting the defence’s attention, cleaning up some misses, and playing heavy minutes. He was a good offensive player and an all-time offensive centre/big, if (well) shy of Shaq and Jokic and Kareem and Dirk.

like i just don't see how 2007 steve nash is supposed to supplant 1983 moses malone in nba history.

How does any non-title winning MVP season supplant title-winning ones “in NBA history”? Hell, how many of those supplant title-winners period?? What defines 1989 and 1990 “in NBA history” more: Magic’s MVPs, or the Bad Boys’ titles? Why would this be the standard?

Although for what it is worth, Nash certainly revolutionised the development of the NBA to an extent Moses never did or could.
MyUniBroDavis wrote:Some people are clearly far too overreliant on data without context and look at good all in one or impact numbers and get wowed by that rather than looking at how a roster is actually built around a player

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