Can you help me assess Lebron's defense?

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Gibson22
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Can you help me assess Lebron's defense? 

Post#1 » by Gibson22 » Sun Aug 21, 2022 10:07 pm

Lebron is obviously a good defender, his help defense is a great weapon, his switchability is elite, and he's able to do some incredible plays with his athleticism. However, as I was tracking some of his games (and obviously having followed all of his career), lebron has some serious flaws in that end, first of all, a high rate of plays that I'd rate F (not running back on D, being clearly disengaged, getting scored on with a backdoor cut or generally getting caught ball watching away from his man really badly without really making an help defense play), secondly, making really excessive closeouts and getting beat, and, besides, he isn't impossible to beat on the perimeter, it's not that hard to create separation or even blow by him. In my tracking, his ratio of good to bad plays isn't that high, compared to some other players (low sample), obviously according to my judgment. Obviously, yes, I'm also accounting off ball plays like denying a pass, denying a drive, giving less space for a big to postup, things of that nature. My assessment of his defense (and I'm only talking about playoffs) would be that he's a player with a very high rate for both A level and F level plays, with a decent, but not very good ratio of good vs bad plays, with all time great non big help defense and switchability, with a below average level of defensive involvment especially because he usually has a weak assignment. He's also an elite non-big defensive rebounder. That's a good, not great, defender.
But Lebron is a two times dpoy runner up, and in more analytical circles he's considered a top tier non big defender. Beside that.
Lebron's synergy numbers (defensive playtypes) for his career are amazing, basically goat tier for a non-big. Lebron's on/off defensive numbers are also usually excellent. Leaving out accolades, that aren't that relevant, here are some possible explanations.
As far as his synergy numbers, one could argue and constestualize them by saying that he usually has a weak assignment, and that his level of activity (as far as plays defended, shots guarded) is pretty low.
His on/off numbers are probably lineup dependent (don't know that much about them, tell me more if you know, but when I see em mentioned they are usually elite).
So, it could just be about this data being noisy.
Another good explanation could be that my tracking is off (as far as you know, I may know what I'm looking at), but, realistically, this isn't it, you don't have to worry about me not noticing what his help or off-ball position may have caused or If he's covering somebody else's mistakes or him just picking the lesser of two evils, or things of that nature, I catch all those things. Or it may even be low sample size, but realistically, my tracking mirrors what I've seen from him during his career. Which is a greatly gifted, but flawed, and often frustrating defender.

My best guess would be that his help defense, and defensive coordination, is even more impactful than I think. As in: beside plays where you make a direct impact on, obviously being in a help position, away from your man, has a positive impact on your team's defense as long as you aren't getting beat by your man. This just as much as being someone who can be left open and not guarded hurts your team's offense. What I'm saying is that, even if you are not making a direct help defense play, being physically further away from your man, and therefore closer to other players, clogging the paint etc is a positive as long as you are not getting punished by your man. Besides, lebron is also notoriously a great defensive coordinator. Other than that, lebron is someone who doesn't get attacked a lot, so this may be another key thing.
So, this may make the difference between someone who, by his high rate of both excellent and terrible plays, decent but not great good to bad plays ratio, weak assignments as far as main man guarded and not very high level of activity I see as a good not great defender and someone who has the impact of an excellent, all time great non big defender, as far as playoffs 2009-13/ 15-16/2020

What yall think?
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Re: Can you help me assess Lebron's defense? 

Post#2 » by falcolombardi » Sun Aug 21, 2022 10:11 pm

I think he is pretty good at defense.

He is like having a defensive power forward who plays in the perimeter in offense

You essentially get to use a perimeter spot for rim protection which is pretty damn useful
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Re: Can you help me assess Lebron's defense? 

Post#3 » by Gibson22 » Sun Aug 21, 2022 10:36 pm

falcolombardi wrote:I think he is pretty good at defense.

He is like having a defensive power forward who plays in the perimeter in offense

You essentially get to use a perimeter spot for rim protection which is pretty damn useful


Specifically I was hoping somebody could enlighten me about his on/off numbers and impact stats and things like that
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Re: Can you help me assess Lebron's defense? 

Post#4 » by VanWest82 » Sun Aug 21, 2022 11:17 pm

Lebron is a great defender when he wants to be but just an ok defender most of the time. He's made five 1st team all defense and one 2nd team in 19 seasons. That feels like the correct amount though he shouldn't have made it in 2014.

If you want a good illustration of Lebron's defense, look at the RAPTOR splits:

14: -1.3 RS, +0.8 PS
15: -0.1 RS, +1.1 PS
16: +1.4 RS, +5.1 PS
17: +0.4 RS, +2.8 PS
18: -1.7 RS, -1.6 PS (outlier because he carried a ridiculous offensive load)
19: +0.1 RS, failed to make playoffs
20: +0.7 RS, +3.2 PS
21: +0.3 RS, +3.0 PS
22: +0.1 RS, failed to make playoffs

He's way overrated as a regular season defender but perhaps even underrated in some places as a postseason defender when he starts caring about defense.
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Re: Can you help me assess Lebron's defense? 

Post#5 » by letskissbro » Mon Aug 22, 2022 9:04 am

lebron3-14-3 wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:I think he is pretty good at defense.

He is like having a defensive power forward who plays in the perimeter in offense

You essentially get to use a perimeter spot for rim protection which is pretty damn useful


Specifically I was hoping somebody could enlighten me about his on/off numbers and impact stats and things like that


Besides Ginobili (who's a clear outlier and seems to be a case of collinearity with Duncan/other Spurs defenders) he has the highest postseason DRAPM ever among perimeter players:

(2000+ MP, 1998-2019)

1. Manu Ginobili (3.52)
2. LeBron James (2.20)
3. Kawhi Leonard ( 2.09)
4. Tony Allen (2.09)
5. Josh Howard (2.00)
6. Shawn Marion (1.84)
7. Paul George (1.72)
8. Jason Kidd (1.70)
9. Tayshaun Prince (1.67)
10. Rajon Rondo (1.64)
11. Bruce Bowen (1.53)
12. Danny Green (1.50)
13. Mike Conley (1.40)
14. Dwyane Wade (1.37)
15. Luol Deng (1.25)
16. Metta World Peace (1.23)
17. Kyle Lowry (1.22)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQdG8Zv84zqKEzETDjd8KPsClcw9bPETX9v_x_KEAxjv9NrFaWikOoiSaciy1jbMiygg2D-V8DUQn0O/pubhtml?gid=112475182&single=true

This isn't including his 2020 playoffs either which was one of his better defensive showings and had him 2nd behind only AD in DPIPM.

What makes this more impressive to me is that he has by far the most minutes played here at over 3k more than the next guy and many of the guys listed above played with strong rim protection in their primes whereas LeBron teams played a lot of small ball with weaker rim protectors at C.
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Re: Can you help me assess Lebron's defense? 

Post#6 » by Dr Positivity » Mon Aug 22, 2022 5:12 pm

Lebron is elite on D during his run of 4 of 5 MVPs. He's never really a total shut down guy man to man but is good on help D. He was the Cavs defensive anchor and his first few Heat years having Wade allowed him to concentrate more on D. From 2014 on I think he was saving energy. Not sure about 2013. I think he was better at SF than PF on D.
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Re: Can you help me assess Lebron's defense? 

Post#7 » by Saints14 » Mon Aug 22, 2022 8:50 pm

Said this on another thread, I bet if he suddenly decided to be a defensive role player he'd be borderline elite. At his age doesn't have the energy to run the offense and play with effort on defense
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Re: Can you help me assess Lebron's defense? 

Post#8 » by LesGrossman » Tue Aug 23, 2022 8:16 am

When he was invested, he was among the all time best simply due to instinct and athleticism. Thats long ago though so the question is, do you want to compare all time numbers (and only then does using career averages sense) or rather look at his defense right now? For several seasons now, his effort in the regular season has been visibly and consistently miserable. I'm not sure why that is, the narrative is "he has been tasked with running the offense" (i dont know who would "task him" though). On a team with AD and Russ, i dont think the Lakers need an all-offensive oriented leader that acts like a pylon on D. Maybe a legacy / popularity issue though, it was obvious that the only way to make noise last season was by chasing the scoring title, defensive efforts are usually overlooked by casual fans and media.
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Re: Can you help me assess Lebron's defense? 

Post#9 » by Gibson22 » Wed Aug 24, 2022 6:56 pm

up
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Re: Can you help me assess Lebron's defense? 

Post#10 » by Stalwart » Thu Aug 25, 2022 8:31 am

In his prime? Overrated. Currently? Non-existent.

The reason Lebron's defensive numbers look so good but the eye trst looks so bad is because defensive analytic numbers aren't very accurate or reliable. At least when trying fo assess an individual player.
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Re: Can you help me assess Lebron's defense? 

Post#11 » by tmorgan » Thu Aug 25, 2022 10:04 am

For someone that has always tried to make the right play and run a team-oriented offense, LeBron is a remarkably selfish defender. He’ll sell out a scheme looking for a big play far too often. This was fairly effective when he was at or near the best athlete in the league, but time spares no one, and it doesn’t work as well without really engaged teammates, too (ie playoffs).

Lately, well, you aren’t going to see a guy in his late 30’s with large offensive responsibilities give full effort on defense most of the time. I think if the Lakers can make the playoffs with some momentum this year, there is still high impact defense left in LeBron for big games with rest days to follow. We’ll see if the rest of the team defense shows up, though.

Has he ever been thought of as a lockdown man defender? If so, I’ve forgotten. He certainly does make some amazing plays, though.
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Re: Can you help me assess Lebron's defense? 

Post#12 » by OhayoKD » Fri Aug 26, 2022 9:08 am

lebron3-14-3 wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:I think he is pretty good at defense.

He is like having a defensive power forward who plays in the perimeter in offense

You essentially get to use a perimeter spot for rim protection which is pretty damn useful


Specifically I was hoping somebody could enlighten me about his on/off numbers and impact stats and things like that

His impact between 2014-2020 in the regular season wasn't too far behind Kawhi's according to PIPM.

In the playoffs he has a higher drapm than kawhi despite playing expotentially more minuites. His best year by defensive stuff is 2009 where stats put him at +4 but he tracks as a +2.5 defender even in the yeat the lakers won which was deep into his career.

Maybe the most impressive achievement is that he anchored a -7 defense in the 2015 playoffs when he was turning 30 and a -5 defense in the 16 playoffs. Notably the cavs defense was alot more effective vs top offenses than weaker ones which suggests they might have been coasting on the defensive end vs weaker opponents
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Re: Can you help me assess Lebron's defense? 

Post#13 » by Gibson22 » Fri Aug 26, 2022 9:38 am

OhayoKD wrote:
lebron3-14-3 wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:I think he is pretty good at defense.

He is like having a defensive power forward who plays in the perimeter in offense

You essentially get to use a perimeter spot for rim protection which is pretty damn useful


Specifically I was hoping somebody could enlighten me about his on/off numbers and impact stats and things like that

His impact between 2014-2020 in the regular season wasn't too far behind Kawhi's according to PIPM.

In the playoffs he has a higher drapm than kawhi despite playing expotentially more minuites. His best year by defensive stuff is 2009 where stats put him at +4 but he tracks as a +2.5 defender even in the yeat the lakers won which was deep into his career.

Maybe the most impressive achievement is that he anchored a -7 defense in the 2015 playoffs when he was turning 30 and a -5 defense in the 16 playoffs. Notably the cavs defense was alot more effective vs top offenses than weaker ones which suggests they might have been coasting on the defensive end vs weaker opponents


Where can I see playoff team's defensive ratings?
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Re: Can you help me assess Lebron's defense? 

Post#14 » by OhayoKD » Sat Sep 10, 2022 11:34 pm

lebron3-14-3 wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
lebron3-14-3 wrote:
Specifically I was hoping somebody could enlighten me about his on/off numbers and impact stats and things like that

His impact between 2014-2020 in the regular season wasn't too far behind Kawhi's according to PIPM.

In the playoffs he has a higher drapm than kawhi despite playing expotentially more minuites. His best year by defensive stuff is 2009 where stats put him at +4 but he tracks as a +2.5 defender even in the yeat the lakers won which was deep into his career.

Maybe the most impressive achievement is that he anchored a -7 defense in the 2015 playoffs when he was turning 30 and a -5 defense in the 16 playoffs. Notably the cavs defense was alot more effective vs top offenses than weaker ones which suggests they might have been coasting on the defensive end vs weaker opponents


Where can I see playoff team's defensive ratings?

you look at the team's o-rating and then you look at their o ratingin the series, and then you average with games.

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