Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #22 - 1975-76 Julius Erving

Moderators: penbeast0, PaulieWal, Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ, trex_8063

User avatar
LA Bird
Analyst
Posts: 3,592
And1: 3,327
Joined: Feb 16, 2015

Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #22 - 1975-76 Julius Erving 

Post#1 » by LA Bird » Fri Aug 26, 2022 2:47 pm

RealGM Greatest Peaks List (2022)
1. 1990-91 Michael Jordan
2. 2012-13 LeBron James
3. 1999-00 Shaquille O'Neal
4. 1976-77 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
5. 1966-67 Wilt Chamberlain
6. 2002-03 Tim Duncan
7. 1993-94 Hakeem Olajuwon
8. 1963-64 Bill Russell
9. 1985-86 Larry Bird
10. 1986-87 Magic Johnson
11. 2016-17 Stephen Curry
12. 2003-04 Kevin Garnett
13. 2020-21 Giannis Antetokounmpo
14. 1963-64 Oscar Robertson
15. 1965-66 Jerry West
16. 2021-22 Nikola Jokic
17. 1976-77 Bill Walton
18. 2005-06 Dwyane Wade
19. 2007-08 Kobe Bryant
20. 1993-94 David Robinson
21. 2016-17 Kawhi Leonard
22. ?

Spoiler:
Please vote for your 3 highest player peaks and at least one line of reasoning for each of them.

Vote example 1
1. 1991 Jordan: Explanation
2. 2013 LeBron: Explanation
3. 2000 Shaq: Explanation

In addition, you can also list other peak season candidates from those three players. This extra step is entirely optional

Vote example 2
1. 1991 Jordan: Explanation
(1990 Jordan)
2. 2013 LeBron: Explanation
(2012 LeBron)
(2009 LeBron)
3. 2000 Shaq: Explanation

You can visit the project thread for further information on why this makes a difference and how the votes will be counted at the end of the round.

Voting for this round will close on Monday August 29, 9am ET..
User avatar
AEnigma
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,047
And1: 5,850
Joined: Jul 24, 2022
 

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #22 

Post#2 » by AEnigma » Fri Aug 26, 2022 3:56 pm

AEnigma wrote:1. Anthony Davis (2020)
Imagine 2020, or even 2018, Davis on a slightly adjusted (to make up for the spacing decline going from Dirk to Davis) version of that 2011 Mavericks team. As a playoff scorer, prime Davis (in a limited sample) has proved his acumen, and we also know he can be the world’s best defender. Two-way impact like that reliably translates across many different teams and eras. Biggest issue is of course the regular season, but 2018-20 Davis is a pretty strong baseline regardless.
Here Unibro’s take is close to definitive:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2215651#p100682968

2. Steve Nash a.) 2007 b.) 2006 c.) 2005
Once I created a separate tier, Nash felt like a much more palatable choice. He sadly did not win a title — although I believe he could have won with some better luck in 2006 or 2007, or with better front office decisions, or as a secondary player. However, what he did do was consistently spearhead contending teams in a manner that I feel would translate well across eras. Nash’s passing, much like Magic’s, is a brilliant magnifier and maximiser of existing talent. I also think he is an easy top eight shooter in the history of the sport, with a decent claim to second. His shot and shot percentages are every bit as good as anyone’s, they maintain into the postseason, and he created those shots for himself far more than any other top shooter did. This was a massive advantage in his time, but with the spacing revolution I think his gravity would take another leap. Note: I am not suggesting he would be a regular high volume scorer in the modern league, which is a claim I think grossly misinterprets the value and intent of his playstyle; simply going more to his playoff volume and increasing the proportion of threes taken would already represent a notable jump and would even further strain defences that have become hyper-aware of the effects of that type of spacing.

I came across plenty of good commentary reading through past projects and RealGM threads — I may re-post some later to drive conversation — but I am not sure Nash’s peak case is all that mysterious anymore. That Backpicks profile was what, five years ago now? Everyone should have seen those arguments and statistics, even if not everyone is inclined to accept them. His downside is that he is a small guard with at best uninspiring defence, and although that was hardly disastrous in his time, he would certainly be picked on more today (although his play awareness should keep him comfortably above the Trae/Isaiah/Lillard tier of abject liability). Like I said when we were comparing him with Jokic, it seems intuitively easier to build a defence with a weak guard than it is to build a defence with a weak big, even if that big provides a higher baseline defensive value than the guard (sadly, running a team of slower-footed giants does not seem to stack as well as you may hope, and teams have yet to develop the approach of abandoning small guards entirely). I think the 2006 Suns have a strong shot at making it past the Mavericks (at which point they would be up against notorious pnr defender Shaq) if they simply had a healthy Kurt Thomas (I encourage people to check Phoenix’s net ratings with Nash on-court and Amar’e off-court; not exactly struggling, are they?). Nash does not need stars or hot shooting or favourable matchups to do well in the postseason; at his peak, all he really needed was some healthy support.

3. Dirk Nowitzki (2011)
With concerns noted — carefully cultivated roster-building that may not be easily replicable across other franchises, questionable defensive translation in modern era, one-year spike in “impact” and in team results because of perfect fit with Tyson Chandler — he was a giant of his era who led a complementary but not outstanding roster to a title against tough overall competition (if not so much tough defensive competition) and a few years earlier had an even more impressive run to the finals with a worse fitting and probably less talented roster. 2012-14 Durant is not really operating in a different era from 2011 Dirk, and Dirk clearly did more with less. This is a bit of a half-assed blurb but I feel like we have talked the subject to death. I was considering Erving. Easier to build a defence around him as a small forward and also pretty resilient in the postseason. I just trust Dirk’s impact more on a wider variety of teams.

If Dirk wins this vote, unsure whether I will go with Durant or with Erving. Leaning Durant, but no love lost for him, so could be swayed toward Erving. Once those three are in, seems like the debate will become much more interesting.
MyUniBroDavis wrote:Some people are clearly far too overreliant on data without context and look at good all in one or impact numbers and get wowed by that rather than looking at how a roster is actually built around a player
Dutchball97
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,406
And1: 5,001
Joined: Mar 28, 2020
   

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #22 

Post#3 » by Dutchball97 » Fri Aug 26, 2022 4:07 pm

1. 1976 Julius Erving - Dr J had one of the most dominant years ever in North American pro basketball in the final year of the ABA. Where you rank him mostly depends on how good you think the ABA was towards its end. I'd say I'm probably somewhere in the middle. With the likes of Artis Gilmore, Dan Issel, Bobby Jones and George Gervin the ABA had become a serious competitor to the NBA but it didn't become on the same level just yet and since even the mid-70s NBA is generally considered as a relatively weak era, the mid-70s ABA isn't one of the strongest eras either. Overall though this is still a very complete season and it remains a fact you can only beat who is put in front of you. What especially helps him out here is the Nets roster besides Dr J himself wasn't particularly special, which is a huge contrast to the other guys I'm considering around this spot.

2. 1983 Moses Malone - Moses wasn't the best defender but in 83 he does look pretty impressive on that end, while his offense has always been strong. He's hurt somewhat by playing on a historically stacked team but it's hard to go against him winning MVP by a landslide and leading the 76ers to a dominant title. I might be somewhat influenced by winning bias here but we have rather incomplete advanced stats for the early 80s so I'd rather not put too much emphasis on Moses not having an overwhelmingly high BPM.

3. 2006 Dirk Nowitzki - He's my pick for regular season MVP in a year with a lot of players having comparable seasons then in the post-season he was incredible untill being outplayed by Wade in the finals. If the latter didn't happen I'd probably have voted Dirk a couple spots higher but it's hard to overlook as is. This isn't a situation where a team beats up on weaker squads before getting thrown out by the first actual challenge they face though. A first round sweep of the #5 SRS Grizzlies, followed by a tough 7 game win over the #1 SRS team and defending champion Spurs and then a 6 game win over the #4 SRS Suns led by the back to back reigning MVP Nash. Throughout that gauntlet and despite a slightly lesser finals showing Dirk still ended up leading the league in post-season WS and VORP. Overall I think this is a rather overlooked season.

3b. 2011 Dirk Nowitzki
Samurai
General Manager
Posts: 8,895
And1: 3,112
Joined: Jul 01, 2014
     

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #22 

Post#4 » by Samurai » Fri Aug 26, 2022 5:05 pm

1. Doctor J 1976. Yes, it was in the ABA. The final year of that league before the merger in 77 and at that point, the ABA was loaded with future Hall of Famers such as David Thompson, Artis Gilmore, George Gervin, Bobby Jones and Dan Issel. No plumbers or milkmen in that group. And Dr J put up one of the best all-around seasons ever. Led the league in scoring at 29.3 ppg. Fifth in rebounding at 11.0 rpg. Seventh in assists at 5.0 apg. Third in steal at 2.5 spg. Seventh in blocks at 1.9 bpg. Tenth in field goal percentage at .507% and sixth in 3-point % at 33%. And led the league in PER, Win Shares, Offensive Win Shares, Defensive Win Shares, WS/48, Box Plus/Minus, VORP, and Usage %. Off the top of my head, the only other player who dominated across that many aspects of the game might be 51 Mikan but we don't have any idea what his blocks or steal numbers were and I'd guess that the competition level in the 76 ABA was higher than the 51 NBA.

2. George Mikan 1950. (alternate 1951) I said that he would be my next selection so here he is. Most dominant 2-way player relative to his peers of anyone left. Led the league in scoring, Win Shares and Defensive WS. Likely would have led the league in rebounds and blocks if those stats were recorded then and would have been the clear favorite for Defensive Player of the Year is such an award existed. There is no question whatsoever that he was the best of his era, more so than anyone left. In terms of in-era dominance, he has a very good case for being the GOAT. As is, he may well be the most impactful player ever, given that the 24-second rule was established largely due to Mikan's dominance and the widening of the key was dubbed "the Mikan rule". A good argument can be made that the introduction of the shot clock is the single biggest and most influential rule change since the NBA started. The question is how much do we penalize him for playing in a weaker era. This is where I would draw the line at continuing to penalize him.

3. Bob Pettit 1959. (alternate 58, 62)I have Pettit as very close to Mikan so I suppose it makes sense for me to list him just after Mikan. In terms of how he did against his peers, I think a good argument could be made that 59 Pettit could have been a top ten season. Obviously we also have to look at the context of his season and the quality of his competition and figure out how much to penalize him for the era he played in. He was MVP in a league that had Bill Russell averaging 23 boards/game, a rookie Elgin Baylor averaging 25 pts and 15 rebounds/game, and Hall of Famers like Schayes, Arizin, Hagan, Cousy and Twyman in their primes. Pettit led the league with 29.4 pts/game, a 28.2 PER and 14.8 WS while finishing second in rebounds with 16.4/game.
iggymcfrack
RealGM
Posts: 11,525
And1: 9,028
Joined: Sep 26, 2017

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #22 

Post#5 » by iggymcfrack » Fri Aug 26, 2022 5:07 pm

1. 2010-11 Dirk Nowitzki- In 2 strong RAPM samples, he ranked incredibly high finishing 1st overall in the NBAShotCharts site which spanned from 2010-2022 and he also ranked #3 in the 97-14 sample on Yahoo behind 2 LeBron years and one year from Tim Duncan. The Mavericks were approximately a -6 with him on the bench in both the regular season and postseason and yet, he led them to sweep Kobe and Pau in the first round and beat a superteam of Wade, Bosh, and LeBron that many thought was the best team ever established at the time.

2. 2016-17 Russell Westbrook- Deserved MVP over 2 peaks that have been voted in already from the same season plus an all-time LeBron year. The triple doubles are what get remembered that year, but Russ also led the league in PER and BPM, ranking 22nd and 15th all-time respectively. His clutch scoring was incredible. He brought the Thunder back from down 14, hit the game-tying shot and then won in overtime against Orlando. He scored 12 points in the final 3:30 and hit the game-winner to beat the Mavericks. He scored the Thunder’s last 15 points and hit a buzzer-beater to beat the Nuggets. He, himself, went on a 15-0 run in the final 2:35 to beat the Grizzlies. He scored 11 of the Thunder’s final 13 points and hit a game-winner vs. the Jazz. Russ scored 19 of OKC’s last 22 against the Trail Blazers.

It really was an incredible all-time performance just to get that team to the playoffs. Once he got there? Russ did everything he could. He averaged an unheard of 37/12/11/2 leading the playoffs in PPG, APG, and SPG. His on/off went from +12.5 in the regular season to +62.8 in the playoffs. There really were no holes in his game. I've been as much of a Russ detractor as anyone at various times and I thought the Chris Paul trade was one of the most lopsided trades in the history of the NBA when it happened, but for one magical season, Russ really was one of the most dominant players in the history of the NBA.

3. 2013-14 Chris Paul (2011, 2015, 2016, 2017)- Chris Paul had tremendous impact and box score stats year after year. One strong RAPM had him rank ahead of KD 10 seasons in a row which is tough even for a vastly superior player just due to random chance and outliers. He's got several top 2 seasons by pretty much any impact stat you use. He has maybe the best ever box score season for a point guard. He also constantly ranks very high in DRAPM and is able to switch on to much larger players, even defending KD effectively in the 2018 Western Conference Finals. He's arguably the best defensive PG of all-time as well. The only question mark on his record has been getting it done in the playoffs. Well in 2014, he led the Clippers past Steph Curry and the Warriors in Round 1, putting up 22 and 14 with 4 steals on .640 TS% in Game 7. Then, in the next round his Clippers faced the KD/Westbrook Thunder and were +47 with CP3 on the floor, only losing because they were -52 with him on the bench.
trelos6
Senior
Posts: 506
And1: 204
Joined: Jun 17, 2022
Location: Sydney

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #22 

Post#6 » by trelos6 » Sat Aug 27, 2022 12:08 am

22. Kevin Durant. 2017. 28 pp75 at +10 rTS%. I know Curry was grabbing the attention, giving KD easier looks, but we don’t dock Magic for playing with Kareem, Jordan for playing with Scottie and Rodman (offensive rebounds), or Kobe for playing with Shaq.

23. Steve Nash 2007. Engine of an amazing offense (+7.5 team rOrtg) and was a lights out shooter. He was 19.8 ppg on +11.3 rTS%.

24. 2007-08 Chris Paul. James Harden 2017-19, Reggie Miller, Anthony Davis 2020. Lots of guys to consider in this spot. I’m ultimately leaning with Chris Paul. As impressive as a switching bug who protects the paint and shoot 3’s is, CP3 was an elite offensive initiator AND point of attack defender. For these reasons I give him then nod at 24.
User avatar
Proxy
Sophomore
Posts: 237
And1: 192
Joined: Jun 30, 2021
       

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #22 

Post#7 » by Proxy » Sat Aug 27, 2022 12:42 am

Proxy wrote:Going to have less time soon so i'll add more names this ballot, don't have the time to do the more thorough comparisons i'd like

1. 2020 Anthony Davis
-Explained in other threads

2. 2017 Kevin Durant (2018, 2016, 2014)

-Explained in other threads

^ for those 2:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2219689&start=60#p100925935

3. 1976 Julius Erving
-Changing my mind on this last spot for now, he's been somewhat discussed(mostly people citing his box score numbers), but even with my questions about his offensive impact in most circumstances his defense seems fine enough for me to rank him here(i've also mentioned him numerous times in previous threads). Pretty strong playoff peak when the strength of the late ABA wasn't really too far off from the NBA, and there was also some reasons explaining the ABA-NBA drop off that didn't have TOO much to do with his actual skillset(ex: shaky knees) and he seemed to have got it together mostly in the PS anyways even in less optimal circumstances.

4. 2011 Dirk Nowitzki (2010, 2006)

-Argument is somewhat similar to Durant's in some regards which is why he's been brough up a bit when Durant has - All-Time scoring with pretty limited passing, small positive defensive impact, and they've occupied similar positions before. Both also have pretty similar level value indicators throughout their prime in the RS with Dirk's peaking in 2011(2016 for Durant).

While I don't feel as strongly about him as a on-ball playmaker that I do Durant - I think he is still a much worse passer in those circumstances and doesn't have the same dribble penetration that it's limiting enough. He makes up for stuff like this a bit with his spacing/screening value - I think he leveraged his scoring gravity the best this year coupled with a more refined post game and marginally improved passing, and his superb turnover economy+scoring efficiency paired with his massive halfcourt scoring frequency allowed his teams to set up more in the half court defensively by toning down transition offense frequency - so there's some global defense value there. He's probably a more crisp, efficient decision maker in general than Durant when it comes to picking his spots to score and pass, though i'd also say he's more reserved and takes less risks so there's some tradeoff there. My main limiting factor is my lower confidence in his defensive value team-to-team.

5. 2015 Chris Paul (2014, 2008)
-Will probably actually add on him when he gets more traction, but I feel he deserves some mention. I have my reservations when it comes to his offensive ceiling in a PS setting, but with his pretty strong offensive showcasing(Clippers also had the #1 RS offense this year) paired with his very strong defense this year(clearly all-defense for a G IMO) I decided give him the edge over my upcoming picks for now.

Leaning McGrady, Nash or Malone(Moses) next
AEnigma wrote:Arf arf.
Image

trex_8063 wrote:Calling someone a stinky turd is not acceptable.
PLEASE stop doing that.

One_and_Done wrote:I mean, how would you feel if the NBA traced it's origins to an 1821 league of 3 foot dwarves who performed in circuses?
SickMother
Senior
Posts: 677
And1: 634
Joined: Jul 10, 2010

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #22 

Post#8 » by SickMother » Sat Aug 27, 2022 12:53 am

01 Erving 75-76: 28.7 PER | .569 TS% | 110 TS+ | 17.7 WS | .262 WS/48
01 Erving 75-76 Playoffs?!?: 32.0 PER | .610 TS% | 3.7 WS | .321 WS/48
[a peak so high the NBA absorbed a whole other league to get this guy under their banner. Doctor turned in a top tier do it all regular season, then followed it up with one of thee largest postseason efficiency increases of all time.]

02 Hawkins 67-68: 28.8 PER | .597 TS% | 124 TS+ | 17.5 WS | .273 WS/48
02 Hawkins 67-68 Playoffs?!?: 30.0 PER | .651 TS% | 4.0 WS | .310 WS/48
[for what amounts to spot #13 on my ballot I'll go with maybe thee unluckiest player in basketball history, robbed of his collegiate & early NBA career by completely spurious gambling allegations, then derailed by a knee injury which occurred amidst the ABA Championship in this very season.

but there was never any doubt Connie could ball from the outset as one of the original NYC greats at Rucker Park & being named the best high school player in the country in 1960. As for his 67-68 peak, the Hawk simply did everything. Topped the brand new ABA in PPG on monster efficiency, 2nd in the league in RPG, 3rd in the league in APG. Then took his game to a whole other level in the playoffs, hurting his knee during the Championship series & returning to lead his team to the top in heroic fashion even before Willis Reed (or Giannis) did it.

I get it, the 67-68 ABA is probably the 2nd weakest competition level to receive a vote so far besides 49-50 Mikan, but Hawkins had no alternative, it was the best league available to him due to his illegal blacklisting from the NBA & he thoroughly dominated it across the board. Also think that Connie's peak game works in any era with his mix of size, athleticism and all around skillset.]

03 Nowitzki 05-06: 28.1 PER | .589 TS% | 110 TS+ | 17.7 WS | .275 WS/48
03 Nowitzki 05-06 Playoffs?!?: 26.8 PER | .596 TS% | 5.4 WS | .263 WS/48
[whoa, get to vote for someone new. Been awhile. This spot comes down to Dirk or Durant for me and 05-06 Dirk wins out because he was more resilient (with less help to boot) in the Playoffs than OKC Durant & didn't glom onto an existing superteam like GSW Durant.]
DraymondGold
Senior
Posts: 587
And1: 748
Joined: May 19, 2022

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #22 

Post#9 » by DraymondGold » Sat Aug 27, 2022 10:17 am

DraymondGold wrote:Expanding my ballot a bit, since there's more uncertainty the closer the peaks get together:

1. 17 Durant (16, 14)
2. 11 Dirk (10, 06, 07)
3. 1949 Mikan (1950/1951)
4. 1976 Ewing
5. 2014 Chris Paul (2015, 2009)


Previous vote reasoning: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=100961668#p100961668
Stat Box: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=100988617#p100988617
Spoiler:
DraymondGold wrote:I didn't get the chance to post this before Robinson got voted in, so I'll include him here for reference.

Stat Box for this tier of Peaks: Robinson, KD, Kawhi, Dirk, CP3, AD, Nash, Erving, Moses [to add later: McGrady, Karl Malone, Barkley, Mikan]

Plus minus data
Ai. AuPM: 94/95/96 Robinson > 14/15 Paul > 14/16/17 KD > Dirk > Nash > 17/19/21 Kawhi ~ Moses (better in single year peak, worse multi-year) > AD > Erving (no 76 Erving)
Aii. Postseason AuPM: old Robinson > Paul > Dirk (better 1 year, worse 2) >~ Kawhi (higher 1 year than KD) >~ Nash >~ KD (better 2 year) > AD
Bi. Goldstein RAPM: Nash >~ old Robinson ~ Dirk > Paul > Moses (very small historical sample) > Kawhi > KD > AD
Bii. Goldstein RS/Playoff PIPM: Robinson > Paul > Kawhi > KD (21 higher than Kobe) > Dirk > AD > Erving (no 76) > Moses (better 1 year, worse multi-year) ~ Nash (better closer to peak, worse than 80s Erving)
Ci. Additional plus minus stats: Fivethirtyeight’s Overall RAPTOR +/- (per 75): Paul > Kawhi > AD > KD
Cii. Additional plus minus stats: Bball-Index’s LEBRON: Paul (best multi-year) ~ KD (14’s the best peak 1 year, worse multi-year) ~ Kawhi (middle) > AD > Dirk
D. Additional plus minus stats: DARKO: Paul > Kawhi > KD > AD
E. Additional plus minus stats: ESPN’s RPM: Paul > KD > Dirk ~ Kawhi > AD (worse peak year than Nash, better multi-year) > Nash
Fi Additional Plus Minus stats: WOWY: Robinson > Nash [> Kawhi in smaller samples] >> Dirk > Erving > Paul > KD [> AD in smaller samples] >> Moses
Fii. Additional plus minus stats: Backpicks’ CORP evaluation: KD >~ Robinson > Dirk > Erving > AD ~ Paul > Nash > Kawhi > Moses


Box score-based data
Gi. Backpicks BPM: Robinson >~ KD > Paul > Kawhi ~ AD > Dirk ~ Nash (better than 11 Dirk, worse than younger) > Moses > Erving (no 76 Erving)
Gii. Postseason Backpicks BPM: 17 KD (14 is bottom) > Paul ~ Kawhi (21 above KD, 17/19 below Paul) > Nash ~ AD ~ Dirk >~ Robinson (worse younger, better older) > Moses (better 1 year, worse multi-year) ~ Erving (no 76 Erving)
Hi. BR’s BPM: Robinson > 76 Erving (better 1 year than KD) >~ KD > Paul > Kawhi > AD > Dirk (worse 10/11, better younger) >~ Nash > Moses
Hii. BR’s Postseason BPM: Kawhi > 76 Erving > KD > Paul > Dirk (worse in 11, better 10/younger) ~ AD (better in 20, worse other years) >~ Robinson (worse younger, better older) > Moses > Nash


Tier 0 (best in everything): Robinson.
-Robinson: Glad he got voted in. He's worse in post-season BPM, but otherwise he's top 2 in basically every stat including other postseason stats.

Tier 1 (better in most, with some flaws): Paul >~ KD >~ Kawhi >~ Dirk
-Paul is ahead of this group in plus minus metrics (especially in AuPM, Raptor, LeBron, Darko, RPM). He's ahead of Dirk in Box metrics but behind KD in box metrics. The concern for Paul is health, resilience, and scalability, which the stats might miss. Year: I'm taking 14/15 Paul as my peak, though some will argue for 08/09 based more on the box score than impact metrics.
-KD's ahead in all 4 box metrics, tied with Dirk in impact metrics, but below Paul in most impact metrics. He does well in both resilience and scalability. Year: I'd see arguments for 14, 16, and 17.
-Kawhi’s clearly worse in the regular season (e.g. in AuPM and RAPM), but better in the postseason (e.g. in PIPM and BPM).
-Dirk's worst in BPM, but he makes some ground in WOWY and RAPM. Year: he’s better in some stats when he was younger ~06/07, but had some of his best playoffs and scoring ~10/11.
[-Kobe’s below KD in BPM and just above in impact metrics, for those curious]

Tier 2 (still great, but larger flaws): Nash
-Nash has the clear advantage against these 3 in regular impact metrics (e.g. AuPM, WOWY, and RAPM especially where he's first), but he has some of the worst box metrics of anyone here.
-Erving’s missing stats in 76 pulls him down. His non-76 years are last in AuPM and Backpicks’ BPM, but he has mid-pack WOWY regardless and his 76 Basketball Reference BPM just beats KD. If we check WS/48, he’s just below Kawhi/KD in the regular season and above KD near Kawhi in the postseason Year: Interestingly, almost every stat (AuPM, BPM, RS/PS PIPM, etc.) are better in 80/81/82 than 77/78/79. Is this a sign of worse “goodness” in the 70s or worse fit when joining the NBA?
-AD bottom 2 in almost every impact metric (e.g. AuPM, RAPM, WOWY), but his Playoff PIPM from 2020 puts him mid-pack as does BPM.

Tier 3 (clearly below the rest): Moses
-Moses’ best two stats are regular season AuPM (where he sneaks past AD/Erving) and RAPM (where he has a 10 game sample). But he’s bottom 2 in this tier in literally every stat we have here. He’s particularly putrid in WOWY, and he only loses ground if we take multi-year samples.
Reasoning for KD/Dirk: I see both at quite a close level. Durant's impact metrics, scalability, and resilience (alongside another offensive engine) are all great. A similar thing can be said for Dirk. Both are great scorers, likely a hair above Kawhi. Both are clearly the better creators and fit better within an offensive scheme, though passing is neither of their strong suits. Defensively, I'm most concerned with Dirk, particularly as a big man. It's a bit like Jokic, where it becomes a bit of a team making challenge to get the most out of their offense without sacrificing defense. While KD's defense and rebounding is generally overrated due to his athleticism, 17 was finally the year he put it together. Yes, a lot of that was context -- but he also showed a decline in those areas the next year in 18, when he had quite a similar context, so I do think 17 represents KD's peak from a "defensive / team-first mentality" standpoint.

Mikan: He's clearly the most dominant of anyone here by any (few) stats we have, and by any (limited) film we have [see my previous conversation on the topic]. The big question is how much to discount him for his competition or from a "goodness" perspective. I'm honestly not sure what the answer is. I put him here, approximately around the boundary between two Tiers of peaks. I think there'll definitely be some arbitrariness in when he gets voted in though. I just wish we had more info on him!

Erving: A hard player to rank. I've voiced my concerns with his impact already, so I won't retread the same argument too much. In sum: it should certainly give us some pause that Erving seemed to be far worse in 77/78/79 than in 80/81/82 if we're choosing 76 as his peak. How much was 76 enabled by worse competition? Still, plenty have argued it's a case of fit more than goodness. His WOWY numbers are encouraging, and the stuff we do have suggests 76 has a one-year peak around the level of KD/Kawhi relative to his league. I give him a small discount for my competition concerns (a great previous post suggested the average 70s ABA player was around ~90% as good as the 70s NBA player), and I discount him for his decline in 77/78/79, which puts him around here.

Paul: I suspect he'll be given the Robinson treatment. His regular season impact is clearly just as good as anyone here. The concern for him is playoffs. And while I think the constant harping about him as a "choker" is overrated (and often health related), he does show a decline in the film and in the stats (BPM/PIPM/AuPM) even in the playoffs where he's relatively healthy. Add some scalability concerns, and he gets discounted a bit, but stays above those who seem to be a small tier below him.
trex_8063
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 12,482
And1: 8,128
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
     

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #22 

Post#10 » by trex_8063 » Sun Aug 28, 2022 7:00 pm

1st ballot: '76 Julius Erving
Perhaps a hard one to place, given it's hard to gauge the strength of the ABA at that stage. But '76 Dr J is statistically bonkers, and appears to be doing EVERYTHING for this team [that wins the ABA title]. They're the #1 defense in the ABA, leading the league in opp TOV% (with Erving leading in spg and total steals [handily]), 3rd-best opp eFG% and 2pt% (with Erving leading the team in blocks), and he's team leader in DRebs [close 2nd in ORebs, too]. Leads team in ppg and apg, too, 2nd [to a low-volume scorer] in eFG%, while getting to the line more than twice as often as anyone else on the team [making >80%, too].

The one [or two?] games from this season I've seen, he looks like he's everywhere, doing everything. Given he was an NBA MVP in the early 80's, too [marginally past his physical peak], it's easy to believe he was as legit as his numbers suggest.

Basically he feels like an elite-level help defender and rebounder from the SF position........sort of like a Shawn Marion, except a less exceptional man defender.
But whereas Marion was only a mid-level scorer, peak Erving was....idk, somewhere around a Carmelo Anthony level scorer [not that he went about it in the same way as Melo, and admittedly less spacing effect than Melo]. And he's a peak Durant level playmaker as well. It's a pretty good all-around package.


Feeling less and less sure about the order of what follows, fwiw.....

2nd ballot: '14 Kevin Durant ('17 > '16; full disclosure: I think '17 was probably the best overall version of him, but the 20 missed games is just enough for me to put it marginally behind '14)
'14 was one of the best pure-scoring seasons of all-time (a league-leading 32 ppg on absurd efficiency), and came while being the spearhead of a 6th-rated +3.8 rORTG, despite Westbrook missing 36 games and them having not much offensive power/depth beyond those two.
This was the first [or maybe 2nd] year he felt like a somewhat relevant play-maker, too, and also coincides with leading the team in DRebs (they were 9th in the league in DREB%, fwiw). May have been a marginal positive defensively for the first time in his career that year.

His playoff numbers decline.....but for cryin' out loud, he was still averaging nearly 30 ppg on decent efficiency, while facing the 7th-rated -2.1 rDRTG (with on of the best perimeter stoppers of his generation: Tony Allen), followed by the 9th-rated -1.9 rDRTG, and then the 3rd-rated -4.3 rDRTG [eventual champs] who had arguably the best perimeter stopper of the decade in '14-'16 Kawhi.


3rd ballot: '06 Dirk Nowitzki ('11 Dirk, '07 Dirk)
I personally like '06 Dirk best of all. I acknowledge he hadn't refined his isolation game to the degree of immunity that he had by '11, but I feel his better [younger] athleticism, superior rebounding, and better usage of the 3pt line make up for this.

His playoff scoring is still outstanding that year, and en route to the Finals--->which I think they might have won if not for some questionable officiating. G3 they lose by a mere 2 pts where Wade was awarded 18 FTA. G5 they lose by a single point, in a game Wade was awarded 25 FTA, and then G6 is a 3-pt loss wherein Wade gets 21 FTA (I specifically recall one HIGHLY questionable call).
Obviously Dirk's gravity/spacing effect, the ability to work pnp with him, and his GOAT-level big-man turnover economy (which also has a "global defense" impact, as Proxy put it) are all major considerations, too.
imo, Dirk was already showing chops capable of leading a team to a title without a "second star" at that point (and I suspect it would be the consensus peak year for him if they HAD won).

I'll give '11 the slight nod over '07 on the basis of apparent playoff resilience. '07 feels very "flukey" to me, but nonetheless.....


4. '15 Chris Paul ('08, '13, '14, '16, '09.....[boy he's got a lot of nice years])
5. '90 Charles Barkley ('93)
6. '22 Joel Embiid ('21)
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
f4p
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,550
And1: 1,567
Joined: Sep 19, 2021
 

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #22 

Post#11 » by f4p » Sun Aug 28, 2022 8:36 pm

it's weird to see the people that get ranked over harden. people without rings, people with seemingly even more playoff drop-off. people who made it further than ever only after joining harden.

kevin durant showed even less playoff resiliency in OKC than harden over his career, but we're supposed to be impressed because he did well when life was easy? if steph and KD are so much better, why was 2018 looking really bad for them and why was 2019 super close even with chris paul looking like crap for most of the series? was it really pj tucker holding it together? the one time harden got a super team, he had a 75 TS% in his one healthy playoff round. this board loves creation abilities when tied to other offensive skills but harden's don't seem as important (see the Nets for what it meant). was KD really better in the regular season than 2017-2020 harden?

chris paul never saw the good side of the 2nd round until he joined harden. he has blown not 1, not 2, not 3, not 4, but 5 2-0 series leads in his career (threw in a 3-1 for good measure). 9-9 as an SRS favorites in the playoffs, which is amongst the worst marks ever (10-3 for harden). even 5-5 as a +2 SRS favorite, which is the worst number i saw other than Oscar, and even then that's only if you factor out the Kareem years (and even then it was only 1-2 so a smaller sample). for pure favorites, only t-mac (0%) and pre-Kareem Oscar (33%) are lower with dominique (50%) tied.

westbrook? won't rehash the debate that he wasn't even better than harden in 2017, which would be maybe harden's 4th best regular season, but he doesn't even have the corroborating surrounding seasons that people have been looking for even in a peaks project. the claim was that he was a high volume, moderate efficiency guy who couldn't translate this style to having better teammates seemed to be perfectly backed up in subsequent seasons where his team basically did no better with paul george and didn't get out of the 1st round. even his insane 2017 playoff stats don't even grade out as amazing as you would think in a volume stat like PER (27.4). the fact he never got out of the 1st round without durant or harden (and he didn't really play the 1st round) makes it weird to pick him over a guy who has basically had the 2nd round as his floor for 8 years and who basically only loses to the champion or 60+/70+ win teams.

also, since i saw luka mentioned in the previous round, i'm starting to think i should have started thinking of him earlier. from the previous thread, it seemed like he was already getting the kawhi nit-pick everything and ignore what happened treatement. but he's literally the leading scorer in playoff history and that list is basically MJ with a huge lead over 2nd place. huge 1st rounds against the clippers, where he was putting up 40 point triple doubles with game winners. huge series against a 64 win #1 seed where he basically just clowned them in a game 7, seeming to thrive from the tip off like it was a fun challenge while they all shrunk in the moment (who was their leader again?), with him scoring 30 in the 1st half, more than the suns. then he played the #1 defense in the league and was putting up 30 and 40 point massive games and giving them everything they wanted. maybe a few dings for slow starts in the regular season, but how much did phoenix's fast start help them? luka is probably next on my list, and frankly, only because i hadn't started considering him due to recency bias (and because my picks never come off the board so i'd probably have luka higher in an absolute sense). he's going to be a top 15 minimum and probably top 10 guy in history and his peak being super low will look weird in the future.


1. 1983 Moses Malone (alternate 1982)
Fo Fo Fo, blah blah blah.

Dominated the regular season, dominated the playoffs for one of the best teams ever. Dr J didn't even play well in the playoffs, so if there was ever going to be a test of the "Moses is just joining a great team, he's not really that good", then this would be it. And well, the 12-1 record doesn't lie. But his PIPM is low?

2. 2011 Dirk Nowitzki

In some ways doesn't feel as good as 2006, with the epic Spurs series and being great against the Suns. But in one finals he crumbled, while in 2011 he was great. He might have had the GOAT clutch playoffs. I wanna say he had a 90+ TS% in the clutch through the WCF. Maybe it was a few games into the WCF, I don't know, but it felt like he never missed a shot in the clutch in those playoffs. Faced down the Heatles and came out on top. Though it wasn't actually a particularly great series compared to the rest of the playoffs, he still seemed amazing in the clutch. Weight of the world and his legacy on the line with this being the last realistic shot and he came through.

3. 2019 James Harden (alternate 2018, then 2020)

2018 summary: Led league in PER, WS, WS48, BPM, team easily won the most games, won MVP. When healthy, Rockets went an incredible 44-5 with a +11.0 SRS when Harden and Paul played (42-3 and +12.0 when Harden/CP3/Capela played). Dominated first 2 rounds and then got up 3-2 on a seemingly unbeatable team that went 28-3 in the playoffs in 2017 and 2018 when not facing the Rockets, including easy trouncings of prime Lebron. And arguably only lost because Chris Paul got hurt and the Rockets were down to a 5.5 man rotation for the last 2 games, where Harden still averaged 32/7.5/6.5 in games where his team averaged 88.5 ppg. Anybody else is beloved for this amazing season and heroic challenge of Goliath. then followed it up with...

Greatest scoring season in history per 100. Took an 11-14 team that cratered at the beginning of the season because the owner got cheap and thought Michael Carter Williams and Carmelo Anthony could replace Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah-a-moute (narrator: they couldn't). I was at opening night when we lost by a million. I knew we would do nothing until we got rid of them. Well, it took a few extra games after we got rid of them, but then The Unguardable Tour started. 32 consecutive games of 30+ points, just mind-boggling. A total of a 46 game stretch averaging 39.7/7.0/7.3 where the rockets went 33-13 after looking out of it and with guys in and out of the lineup. Seriously, read that again. 39.7 ppg for 46 straight games, doing way more winning than 1987 Jordan or 2006 Kobe.

On January 14th and 16th, Harden I believe became the first person since Wilt to score 57+ in back to back games. On March 20th and 22nd, James Harden became the first person since James Harden to score 57+ in back to back games. Insane how easy he made scoring look. You'd just look up and he'd have 31 with 4 minutes to go in the 3rd and you'd barely remember him being hot because it was just a normal night. Eventually made the playoffs and put up 35/7/5.5 against the Warriors in arguably his best series ever (why I choose it over 2018). Played toe to toe with KD, who was on fire, and easily outplayed Steph. Did everything he could with Chris Paul not looking great. An amazing season. Again, anyone but Harden has this season and people are drooling over it.
User avatar
AEnigma
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,047
And1: 5,850
Joined: Jul 24, 2022
 

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #22 

Post#12 » by AEnigma » Mon Aug 29, 2022 12:15 am

I guess to some extent people are twiddling their thumbs until we move past this Erving/Dirk/Durant group.

Erving seems pretty likely this time around or at worst next, and anyone voting for Erving is probably more interested in or at least open to old-school players than the purer modernists, so I figured now might be a good time to try to sell a few of you on 1990 Patrick Ewing, whose season I think compares favourably to 1982 Moses Malone. Ewing sadly had no true chance at MVP that year with peak-ish Magic and Jordan in the league, nor was he fortunate enough to be traded to a 1982 76ers equivalent. However, he did go on his own monstrous scoring run and pull off an unexpected upset of a legend, all while shouldering a defensive load Moses never could. Shortly after, with Pat Riley as his coach and a better but still unspectacular supporting cast, he would take the 1992 Bulls to a game seven and would take a 2-0 lead over the 1993 Bulls (and then of course would go on to that infamous 1994 Finals loss). If he had been his 1990 self, instead of a few years on with degrading knees and overall athleticism, maybe he could have broken through (almost certainly in 1994). Timing is such an under-appreciated element of how legacies are built in this sport.

Anyway, here are some of the best posts and articles I was able to find about that season. I do not agree with every claim (e.g. calling Ewing a better pnr defender than Hakeem), but for the most part I think this all does a better job of detailing his season than I could on my own:

https://hardwoodhype.com/the-work/f/nba-1989-90-peak-patrick-ewing
Hardwood Hype wrote:Already a bona fide star, the 1989-90 season is the one in which Ewing catapulted himself into SUPERstardom.

Ewing hit on 55.1% of his shots and a career-high 77.5% of his free throws en route to 28.6 points per game, third-best in the league and a career-high. For good measure, 10.9 rebounds per game, which was fifth in the league, was his best to date, as were his Assist (10.0%) and Turnover Rates (12.4%).

Twenty-one times he scored at 35 points in a game – in no other season did he do so more than eleven times. Eleven times he went for at least 40 – it’s the only time he reached 40 more than four times in a season. He set a single-season high with twelve games of 30+ and at least 15 rebounds. On ten of those occasions he scored at least 35 – he never did this more than five times in any other season. Eight times in his career Ewing scored at least 30 and grabbed at least 20 rebounds. He did it three times in ’89-‘90 – it’s the only season in which he did it more than once. Two of these were the only 40-20 games of his career. By Basketball Reference Game Score, this is the season in which he turned his top four (and five of the top-ten) individual performances, regular and postseason. Only once since 1983-84 (the date from which B-R has Game Scores) has a center topped four such games in a season.

This is a breakout season of volume greatness and performances, by a short-lived version of Patrick Ewing. Beyond the goofy great statistics and but special, historic performances (more on this in a sec), this is a different Ewing than the Dream Teamer, let alone, the one who anchored the contending Knicks teams to come.

Consider the first of those 40-20s. A month into the season, during the Knicks’ annual visit to Oakland, Ewing positively battered the Warriors, making 17 of 27 shots on his way to 44 points, while grabbing 24 rebounds – ten of them offensive –blocking three shots and handing out four assists in an easy win.

And the hits just kept coming. Three nights later in Phoenix, he had 41, 8 and 4, with five blocks. Two weeks after that, on December 16, it was 30, 14 and six blocks in a home win over the Sonics. Three nights after that, 41, 15 and four blocks in another win, this time over the Jazz.

By the numbers, that night in northern California remained the best regular performance of his career… for about five weeks. On January 7 he basically replicated the feat at home against the Clippers, again scoring 44, this time with 22 rebounds, seven blocked shots, four assists and a pair of steals. Two nights later he hung 35 on the Bullets, before putting a 33 and 12, with five assists and eight blocks on the Bulls at MSG.

And so it went… 38, 15 and four blocks in Dallas… 24, 11 and nine against Miami… 35, 13 and seven the next night in Orlando… 33, 13 and six in Houston… a pair of 41s in wins on either side of the All-Star break, with a combined 25 rebounds and eleven blocks… 37, 13, six assists and three blocks against the defending champion Pistons… 30, 18 and six blocks against Philly… and on… and on…

The game at the Garden on March 24 was always going to be an event, as any visit from the Celtics was in those days. Though the Knicks ultimately fell by five, it was another milestone for Ewing, who grabbed a whopping 18 rebounds to go with a career-high 51, and looked completely unstoppable doing it.

The next time out it was 41 and 12 with four blocks against the Bullets. Four days later it was 37, 21 and six against Denver. This is one of ten 35/20/6 performances recorded since 1973-74 – it was Ewing’s second of the season, and remains the most recent. He went for 37 twice more in the week that followed, first with 17 rebounds in Washington, and two nights later, with 19 rebounds and nine blocks in a home win against Philly. Six times since 1973-74 has a player has scored 35, grabbed 15 rebounds and blocked nine shots in a game. Only four times has it been done in regulation. This is one of them. No one has done it since.

fatal9 wrote:Some context around the 1990 Knicks: The Knicks started out 34-17 before making the Strickland/Cheeks trade. Then finished the season 11-20 for a combination of reasons. I wish I had game 3 of the Celtics series on my computer because Peter Vecsey does a decent job in a halftime segment of showing all the chemistry issues the Knicks had in the last couple of months of the season (these issues were why Knicks were given no chance to beat the Celtics). From making the Strickland trade, to Mark Jackson getting booed on the court and benched for 33 year old Cheeks, to Oakley fracturing his left hand and missing games, to Kiki V coming back and joining the team. These are a LOT of lineup changes for a team to endure mid-season, Knicks had a different starting PG, a different starting PF (Oakley out), a different starting SF (all of whom were defensive downgrades) in the last month of the season than they did when they were winning and putting up one of the best records in the league. I don't think it's a coincidence how the team performance changed so much just as the Knicks began encountering instability in their lineup. Unfortunately this stretch thwarted Ewing's MVP campaign as well (he was in the convo with Magic, Barkley, MJ for it). That was a 50+ win team disguised by the issues at the end of the season, so I would say Ewing was doing a great job of getting the best out of what he was given.

Some posts here seem to be have no sense of context surrounding his season, no analysis of his game (probably haven't bothered to watch any games), just going off a very very superficial analysis of "let me check PER and team defensive rating" and draw conclusions. This type of analysis is only going to produce outrageous statements such as "90 Malone was better than Ewing" or that Ewing "wasn't even on par with Dwight".

This is a peak project, I have a feeling people are letting their bias from mid/late 90s Ewing (who I have issues with offensively too) cloud their judgement on how good he was this year. I had a similar bias, but then I began watching his games from that season (about 15 or so) and what I'm seeing a dominant defender (his defensive versatility is better here than later in the 90s, my one gripe defensively would be that he was more prone to foul trouble this season than he would be later) with an offensive package like we've never seen Ewing put together at any other point of his career.

Why was he so much better offensively? As I've been mentioning, he had more variety in his offensive game, this was something everyone in the league was talking about. He went from being a predictable offensive player who was easy to game plan for, to being a lot more well rounded who mixed up and expanded his scoring repertoire. He was better at creating space on his shots, got that extra bit of separation he wasn't quite getting later as the years went on and a result he was having a lot of success as a one on one scorer in the post. He was at his physical peak in the NBA, insane stamina, a lot more athletic, moved better, had a bit more spring in his legs, which naturally allowed him to have a better conversion rate around the basket. His aggressiveness is completely different, he wasn't content to bail you out with fadeaways all game, he attacked the defense more often ever and consequently posted the best FTA numbers of his career (combined with a career best FT% which further raised his efficiency). His passing also took a big leap that year. While he wasn't Shaq or prime Hakeem, he was competent at reading doubles, this is another observation that is obvious to me from watching games and also reading/listening to what people around the league were saying.

This isn't a guy who saw an increase in his averages because he just upped his numbers and feasted on bad defenses either (like say D-Rob in '94), he was lighting up everyone. Here he is putting up 41/15 on Eaton:

Here is the game where he put up 45/16 against the best defensive team in the league:
His offensive numbers against good defensive teams/centers were very good over the course of the entire season.

Here's a Sports Illustrated article midway through the season (when Knicks were 25-10) talking about Ewing's amazing improvement on offense and how surprised everyone was by how much he improved:
But what the NBA is seeing these days, and is likely to be seeing through a good bit of the next decade, is much, much more. Some of the old images of Ewing are dated. He has buried them under an avalanche of soft, turnaround jump shots. "The book on him always was, Make him shoot over you, make him earn it," says Boston's backup center, Joe Kleine. "Well, now he's earning it." The power, the intimidation, the fearlessness are still there, but so are grace and finesse and economy of movement, terms previously associated with Houston's Akeem Olajuwon, Ewing's yardstick through most of the '80s, and San Antonio rookie David Robinson, the only other NBA center currently mentioned in the same breath with Ewing and Olajuwon.

Ewing's play has been an even more important component of New York's success. "He might be the best in the game right now," Los Angeles's Mychal Thompson told the New York Daily News after Ewing scored 29 points in a 115-104 loss on Dec. 3. "He and Magic [Johnson] are shoulder to shoulder."

"I know what people are saying now," says Jazz coach Jerry Sloan, "but when he came out of college, I don't recall anybody thinking he would score like this."

"I worked on some things this summer, just like I always do. I wanted to get better on coming into the lane with my left hand, and I've done that. I'm getting to the foul line more [his eight attempts per game are about two more than last season], and that's helped my scoring. But I haven't changed my jump shot. It just got better.

Ewing gradually improved under Pitino, but only recently has the whole package been unwrapped. It reveals an agile seven-footer whose turnaround jumper is accurate up to 20 feet; a heady player who discourages double-teaming with canny passes; an outstanding athlete who has somehow figured out the exotic fast-break passing strategies of point guards Mark Jackson and Rod Strickland, both of whom never make a simple move when 13 complicated ones will do; and a defensive intimidator whose 3.7 blocks per game at week's end were second only to Olajuwon's league-leading 4.2.

''He has taken his game to another level,'' Johnson continued, ''a level I've never seen him play at before. He's dominating offensively and defensively, but he's also making the right plays at the right time. He's leading his team, as opposed to before, when it seemed he'd just as soon let somebody else lead. That's the real mark of an MVP.'

https://vault.si.com/.amp/vault/1990/01/22/the-big-man-gets-bigger-patrick-ewing-has-added-finesse-to-his-intimidating-presence-and-made-new-york-an-nba-force

And people are questioning this guy's defense? Come on...this is '92-'94 Ewing but with way better knees. I mean every game I've seen of his from this season, it's the type of combo of scoring variety, defense and athleticism, Knicks fans always wished he had. He was seen as a better center than Hakeem that year, made the all-NBA first over him and had coaches around the league saying he was the best center in the league.

Parish said that Ewing "is a better player today because he has variety of shots, just doesn't throw the fadeaway jumpshot, he gives you the jump hook and his spin move on the baseline is the toughest thing for me to guard" (so this isn't exactly the fadeaway jumpers all game long offensive version of Ewing we remember most). From what I've read guys say about him, he took a big leap in his post game that season but declined as the 90s went on because his knees got worse and worse (and of course he aged, he was in his 30s during '92-'94...and consequently shot jumpers wayyyyyy more often), and as a result so did his efficiency. Even in something like FT shooting, it's way above his career average and his best year ever. He is doing a lot of heavy lifting offensively...must be turning the ball over a lot like he always did, but nope, while putting up the scoring numbers he did, he also posted the third best TOV% of his career. It's not like Ewing is inexperienced here either, he is 27-28 which is usually when players peak so career trajectory wise, it makes sense.

Knicks were still above average defensively considering the following things: a rookie head coach (Stu Jackson, fired 15 games into next season...and only coached one other team after that, the 6-33 Grizzlies), the second best defender on the team missing 21 games, a bad defensive backcourt particularly when Kiki joins the team. I would say he's making pretty good impact here (and we know he can probably make a lot more if he is on a championship caliber team where he doesn't have to score as much). This is one of the great interior defenders of all time, he didn't learn defense when he was 30 years old just like KG didn't magically learn to play defense when he joined the Celtics. His comparison was Bill Russell coming out of college, he was seen as one of the finest defensive talents ever. The questions weren't "can he defend?" but "can he add enough to his post game?" (and he did in 1990). In terms of interior defense, he's ones of the best ever, anything you threw around the basket was going to get challenged, no easy baskets even it meant you put him on a poster. He's second in the league in blocks behind Hakeem, I know averages aren't everything but this isn't Javale McGee we are talking about, but a fundamentally sound defensive player, who plays great post defense and whose block averages reflect his ability to absolutely lock down the paint. I'm going to guess a better moving version of the guy who was anchoring historic defenses a year and a half later was still pretty damn effective on defense. Seems like a reasonable conclusion.

Regarding the Ewing Theory. It refers to the mid/late 90s version of Ewing (in his mid 30s) who is 5+ years away from the year in question here and a CLEAR step down offensively. Even if it were true, it's not very relevant. It's like using Kobe's impact last couple of years to define his impact in '08.

One thing I kind of wish there was more of an argument for was D-Rob (who I think went a few spots too high) vs. Ewing. Would people really take '95 D-Rob in a playoff series over '90 Ewing? Has D-Rob ever taken over offensively for his teams in the playoffs like that? Could D-Rob give the bad boy Pistons defense 45 point game and then come back and drop 30 points in the second half of the next game? And don't forget the intangibles, Ewing was intimidating on the court, a better leader, a guy who has an impact over the entire mentality of the team. I think a great argument I read for D-Rob was that he'd be a great second banana offensively on a championship team but would still be the best overall player on the team...could the same thing not be said about '90 Ewing?
lorak wrote:Another great post by fatal and I agree with you 100% (even youtube video you posted was uploaded by me, because I was so impressed by Ewing's play).

And Ewing theory is completly BS... at least until he was 36 years old. In 1986 he missed 32 games and NYK without him were worse by 6.2 efficiency pts (Ewing improved offense by 1 and defense by 5,2).

1987: 19 games missed, -7 without Ewing (0.4 offense, 6,6 defense)

1996: 6 games missed, -10.6 without Ewing (he improved defense by 12.2 drtg! but offense was worse with him by 1.6)

1998: 56 games missed, -5.4 without Ewing (he improved defense by 7.3 but offense was worse with him by 1.9)

1999: 12 games missed, NYK were better without him by 2.7 eff pts (but still defense was better with Ewing by 1.5)

2000: 20 games missed, team worse by 1.1 with Ewing (but with him offense was better by 3.5 and defense worse by 4.6)

So we see that through almost whole career he was great defensive player and during his early years, before knees were destroyed by injuries, he was also slightly positive player on offense. I really see no reason to put him so much behind DRob whose profile and impact on the game are very close to Ewing's.

E-Balla wrote:1990 Patrick Ewing - This season is spectacular. Ewing was legitimately up for MVP along with Barkley and Magic for most of the season prior to his team making some moves that hurt them. In the first 52 games of the season the Knicks went 34-17 (55 win pace) with Ewing averaging 27.8/10.2/2.3 (4.9 combined blocks and steals) on 58.7 TS% with a 114 ORTG. After the trade the Knicks went 11-20 which would make one assume Ewing didn't play well but he actually played better with the team around him falling apart. He averaged 30.0/12.1/2.1 (4.9 combined blocks and steals) on 61.9 TS% with a 116 ORTG in the last 31 games.

At one point they had a 1-9 stretch where Ewing averaged 32.1/12.5/1.3 (5.0 blocks and steals combined) on 64.5 TS%. His career high was in that stretch, a 51 point performance in a loss to the Celtics.

Then the playoffs came and Ewing went off. In game 1 vs Boston they lost pretty handedly and in game 2 they allowed Boston to break the playoff record for points with 157 (a record that still stands). Following that embarrassment at Boston they were facing elimination in game 3. Ewing and Oakley really turned on the defense and dominated the glass with Ewing grabbing 19 boards in the 3 point win. They followed that with a game 4 blowout win where Ewing played what's probably his best game ever with 44 points, 7 steals, 5 assists, and shooting 75% from the field. Now they were tied up in the series attempting to become the 2nd [sic] team to comeback from being down 0-2 and at the same time hoping to break a 28 game losing streak in Boston (the last time they won in Boston was in 84). The Knicks won that closely contested game with the momentum shifting towards the end of the game with Larry Bird missing an easy dunk and Ewing shortly after making his iconic turnaround 3 pointer.

On Larry Bird missing that dunk this is from SI's article on that series:
When Larry Bird missed the dunk—a point-blank dunk at crunch time in a do-or-die playoff game in Boston Garden—he did so not as a result of any strange astrological occurrence or the Massachusetts budget crisis or even tough defense.

He did so, by his own account, because he was worried. "I wasn't going to dunk it," he explained after the game. "But I thought Patrick was coming, so I tried to. And then I jumped too high, if you can believe it."

Believe it, as hard as it may seem. It is not the business of Boston Celtics to feel shadowy presences, least of all for Larry Legend to feel one from a New York Knick in the building in which New York had lost 26 straight times and hadn't won in the playoffs since the Nixon administration. This was the Garden, and the ghosts are supposed to be friendly. But: "I thought Patrick was coming."

If the truth be told, at the time of Bird's misguided dunk attempt, any Celtic was entitled to be wary of these Knicks. A little more than four minutes remained in Sunday's fifth and final game of these teams' first-round Eastern Conference playoff series, and the Patrick in question, a certain Mr. Ewing, had just feathered in a jump-hook to give New York a 103-99 lead. Ewing did just about everything asked of him in this game. He finished with 31 points and 10 assists, and those figures are stark testimony to how shrewdly he picked apart Boston's double teams with opportune passes and drives.

https://vault.si.com/.amp/vault/1990/05/14/oh-those-cheeky-knicks-mo-cheeks-drove-new-york-to-a-stunning-win-over-boston

Following that series they were completely outmatched by the Pistons but Ewing wasn't. He had some stinkers but overall averaged 27.2 ppg on 56 TS% which is more PPG than anyone outside of MJ (who was only as efficient as Ewing one of those 3 years) averaged against the Pistons in a series between 88 and 90.

EDIT: I punched the numbers. MJ averaged 30.0 ppg on 56.0 TS% against the Pistons from 88 to 90. He averaged 25.4 points per 36. Ewing averaged 26.2 points per 36 against them on 56.0 TS%. So his scoring performance against them was right there with MJ's average scoring performance against them.

Overall that's a pretty great season, but it's not the most impressive left on the board so why 90 Ewing? Well here's how I see his game:

Scoring - 28.6 ppg on +6.2 rTS% speaks for itself. Post merger only Moses (in 81), Robinson (in 94), and Shaq (in 94, 95, 00, and 01) have scored more ppg as a center. Only Shaq in 94, 00, and 01 did it on higher efficiency. In the playoffs he showed he could consistently score on that level scoring 29.4 ppg on 57.9 TS% in the playoffs. Post merger only Shaq (in 98, 00, and 01), Hakeem (in 88 and 95), and Kareem (in 77 and 80) scored more ppg than Ewing in the 90 playoffs. Only Kareem in both years, and Shaq in 98 did it on higher efficiency.

Then you look at his skillset. He had a robotic but effective post game with a predictable but at times unstoppable running hook shot, great speed and strength, the best jumper for any true C I've seen outside of KAT, and his one weakness was probably his small hands which at times limited him on lobs and lead to easy misses of his signature finger roll. There's a solid argument to be made that outside of the true greats (Kareem, Hakeem, Wilt, Moses, Shaq) he's the best scoring C ever. I think his scoring game would suit the modern game amazingly too. Ewing got most of his buckets back then off quick actions and turnaround jumpers, things that would be more valued in today's league at his size.

His passing and rebounding on the other hand were never strong. His passing was below average and his rebounding was mediocre at best for his size.

There's been a lot of discussion about his defense this year. Discussion I don't really understand. Ewing was still an elite defender in 1990 and I don't really have any reason to think he improved after 1990. Played better? In 1992, definitely, but outside of that the biggest change in the quality of the Knicks defense those years was due to his support and most of all the coach. The coach's effect on defensive ratings is always overlooked but there's no great defenses that don't have great defensive coaches and his supporting cast was Oak, Wilkins, and a bunch of scrubs in 1990.

On that end he was a beast out on the perimeter capable of sticking with smaller guys, super athletic and capable of blocking shots at their apex, the best PNR defender of all the Cs of that era (DRob, Hakeem, Deke, and a little later Zo) and he had fast hands capable of stopping drives. Can anyone actually say what he improved at under Pat Riley? I mean performances aren't consistent which is why I think he was better defensively in 89, 92, etc. but why believe Ewing was a meaningfully better defender in the mid 90s just because he finally got a supporting cast that was dominant on that end and a great defensive coach?

I think tons of people just aren't used to seeing young Ewing so they see the numbers and can't connect it to him being legitimately better, and assume he had to have improved later when in reality he lost a ton of his athleticism and really didn't add much to his game. 93/94 Ewing isn't locking down Edwards on the perimeter, forcing Isiah to pick up his dribble and rush a pass (causing a turnover) after a switch in the PNR, drawing a charge on Isiah all the way at the dotted line with his quick reaction and movement (it was called blocking but he's clearly there in time), stopping 3 on 1 fast breaks because no one wanted to go up with it with him around, and at the end of the game blocking Isiah's layup from the other side of the basket.

And while it's simple to think that might just be an abnormal game for Ewing that year it isn't. Detroit still was more efficient than their regular season offense that game, and Ewing had defensive numbers worse than his averages.
MyUniBroDavis wrote:Some people are clearly far too overreliant on data without context and look at good all in one or impact numbers and get wowed by that rather than looking at how a roster is actually built around a player
User avatar
Ron Swanson
RealGM
Posts: 25,129
And1: 28,628
Joined: May 15, 2013

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #22 

Post#13 » by Ron Swanson » Mon Aug 29, 2022 2:04 pm

1975-76 Julius Erving:(HM: 1980-81) Really torn over whether this was too high to put Dr. J, and this will likely be the only ABA season I vote for. But he's one of the few ABA players that didn't suffer any drop-off transitioning to the NBA, so I feel comfortable saying '76 is his peak and would have looked just as good in any league setting. Before Magic, Jordan, and Giannis he was basically the GOAT transition player. All-time postseason run (34/12/5/2/2 on 61% TS) capped off with a legendary Finals stat line (37/14/5) against a Denver team with 3 future hall-of-famers (Issel, Thompson, Jones) makes it hard to scrutinize the competition angle too much.

1992-93 Charles Barkley (HM: 1989-90) Ultimately went with Barkley because I like his playoff "resilience" (I'm honestly starting to hate this term though) much more than the next group of guys I have on my ballot outside of maybe Dirk (Malone, D-Rob, CP3). If not for Jordan going supernova in the Finals, I think the perception of Barkley and his peak would be closer to Top-10 than Top-20. I'm particularly impressed by the fact that the Suns offense didn't have any drop-off (113.3 vs. 113.0 RS/PS) against a very good defensive Bulls team and unfavorable forward matchup (Scottie & Horace). It's also good to get some lineup data of old Barkley post-1996 that shows us he was still anchoring good offenses (+12.0 on/off his age-34 and 35 seasons). My alternate season (1990) ironically also ended due to an insane postseason performance by Jordan (41/7/6/4 on 61.6% TS) which is kind of a microcosm of his career, and why I think his is one of the very few exceptions where I think the lack of championship success is forgiving.

1982-83 Moses Malone (HM: 1981-82) Maybe being too unfair to Moses here considering there's definitely an argument to put him much higher, but a few things give me pause. Namely, the 1983 Sixers were an absolutely stacked roster (Cheeks, Bobby Jones, Erving, Andrew Toney) that won just as much with defense (5th) as they did with offense (5th). The easy argument is that Moses was still their best player by most standard metrics, but I do find it more difficult to accurately gauge how much credit he deserves given his widely known defensive deficiencies. At the end of the day though, I can't dismiss the results nor his offensive impact (sweeping incredibly good Bucks and Lakers squads). Following up a 24/15/2 on 58% TS MVP campaign with a postseason run showing no drop-off in production (26/16/2 on nearly 59% TS) arguably gives him a stronger case over a lot of the guys already voted in ahead of him on this list.
User avatar
LA Bird
Analyst
Posts: 3,592
And1: 3,327
Joined: Feb 16, 2015

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #22 

Post#14 » by LA Bird » Mon Aug 29, 2022 2:04 pm

Here are the results for round 22

Winner: 76 Erving

There were 10 voters in this round: AEnigma, Dutchball97, Samurai, iggymcfrack, trelos6, Proxy, SickMother, DraymondGold, trex_8063, f4p

A total of 38 seasons received at least 1 vote: 05 Nash, 06 Nash, 06 Nowitzki, 07 Nash, 07 Nowitzki, 08 Paul, 09 Paul, 10 Nowitzki, 11 Nowitzki, 11 Paul, 13 Paul, 14 Durant, 14 Paul, 15 Paul, 16 Durant, 16 Paul, 17 Durant, 17 Paul, 17 Westbrook, 18 Durant, 18 Harden, 19 Harden, 20 Davis, 20 Harden, 21 Embiid, 22 Embiid, 49 Mikan, 50 Mikan, 51 Mikan, 58 Pettit, 59 Pettit, 62 Pettit, 68 Hawkins, 76 Erving, 82 Malone, 83 Malone, 90 Barkley, 93 Barkley

Top 10 seasons: 76 Erving, 11 Nowitzki, 17 Durant, 16 Durant, 14 Durant, 06 Nowitzki, 14 Paul, 15 Paul, 20 Davis, 07 Nowitzki

H2H record (1 season per player)
76 Erving: 0.667 (20-10)
11 Nowitzki: 0.645 (20-11)
17 Durant: 0.560 (14-11)
20 Davis: 0.333 (8-16)
14 Paul: 0.208 (5-19)

Return to Player Comparisons