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I thinks its safe to Joel and Jokic are two MVP caliber bigs but im curious as to how people view peak Dwight in comparsion to other All Star level Centers in the league.

Where would he rank amongst these three?


Bam Adebayo
Rudy Gobert
Karl Anthony Towns


Follow up question via polls is how would you compare the three bigs in question.

Ahead of them all, although Gobert is closer than some may think.

Peak Dwight is pretty comfortably better than those 3 guys.

I think Dwight could range from as good as Embiid to behind Gobert and Kat.

I definitely think he's better than Bam even on his worst day though. I think Ayton is good enough to be in this conversation.

Statlanta wrote:I think Dwight could range from as good as Embiid to behind Gobert and Kat.

KAT definitely isn’t in Dwight’s class. He only managed to get his team to the playoffs twice, and both times he underperformed.

Gobert is closer, but I think Dwight’s foul drawing and creation for himself seperates him, don’t see much difference in defense either direction.

Statlanta wrote:I think Dwight could range from as good as Embiid

Tough sell, that. Embiid is a lot better on offense than Dwight, and not just because he has a jumper and hits free throws, but because he plays to his strengths. Dwight was very quickly too dumb and ego-driven to listen and do what SVG had him doing to great success. Different defensive value, but I think the offensive edge more than makes up for it.

tsherkin wrote:

Statlanta wrote:I think Dwight could range from as good as Embiid

Tough sell, that. Embiid is a lot better on offense than Dwight, and not just because he has a jumper and hits free throws, but because he plays to his strengths. Dwight was very quickly too dumb and ego-driven to listen and do what SVG had him doing to great success. Different defensive value, but I think the offensive edge more than makes up for it.

Dwight was also far more durable though, and had better conditioning. You say he didn’t listen to SVG but I don’t know how if the success did come as you say.

No-more-rings wrote:Dwight was also far more durable though, and had better conditioning. You say he didn’t listen to SVG but I don’t know how if the success did come as you say.

The durability is a legit issue for Embiid, to be sure.

And Dwight didn't ignore SVG from the start, he eased into it as he grew more comfortable with himself and let his ego get ahead of his game. It wasn't until after 2009 that it really started to become a problem, and particularly by 2011. Someone can dig up his isolation numbers, but as those rose and he was getting less of the offensive rebounds and late cuts and transition buckets and PnR stuff, that's when he started to have issues. He wanted to be Shaq. And by the lockout season, Orlando's defense had gone, and their tepid offense couldn't cut it without that edge. Also, Dwight hit a less-than-durable patch for a spell and that didn't help either. Really, basically he stopped being "durable" after the 2011 season.

tsherkin wrote:

No-more-rings wrote:Dwight was also far more durable though, and had better conditioning. You say he didn’t listen to SVG but I don’t know how if the success did come as you say.

The durability is a legit issue for Embiid, to be sure.

And Dwight didn't ignore SVG from the start, he eased into it as he grew more comfortable with himself and let his ego get ahead of his game. It wasn't until after 2009 that it really started to become a problem, and particularly by 2011. Someone can dig up his isolation numbers, but as those rose and he was getting less of the offensive rebounds and late cuts and transition buckets and PnR stuff, that's when he started to have issues. He wanted to be Shaq. And by the lockout season, Orlando's defense had gone, and their tepid offense couldn't cut it without that edge. Also, Dwight hit a less-than-durable patch for a spell and that didn't help either. Really, basically he stopped being "durable" after the 2011 season.

Agree with this 100%. Dwight let Shaq comparisons get into his head, which is a shame because he's was a beast

An Unbiased Fan wrote:Agree with this 100%. Dwight let Shaq comparisons get into his head, which is a shame because he's was a beast

It is a shame. Dwight had great physical tools, and had actually busted hump like crazy to improve his body after getting drafted. He was and remained a phenomenal rebounder. He smashed the hell out of the offensive glass in 2009 but he has been a good offensive rebounder his whole career and he was killing the defensive glass. Lots of effort. Great defensive value. He just needed to not worry about ISOS so much, which is a sickness which plagues MANY players at many positions. But he really wanted to be like Shaq like a whole generation before him wanted to be Like Mike. It was really frustrating. Perhaps a little more so when, for several years, he'd flash a little 13- to 15-foot jumper at the start of the season and it would be gone before the All-Star break. If he'd ever figured out that short J, especially out to 17 feet, he'd have easily been Patrick Ewing with better rebounding. Like, in a heart beat. But he didn't have that same capacity for improvement that Ewing and Karl Malone both showcased early on in their careers.

Since, it seems relatively universally agreed upon that Howard is above the 3 mentioned players, I will chime in on the Dwight vs Embiid debate.

For 1, from 09-11, I think Dwight Howard was a top 3 player in the league. This is probably the highest Embiid would be considered at any point in the league right now. While, yes, league strength of top players varies over time, I thought it was worth mentioning if we are comparing them in terms of relative dominance compared to the rest of the league.

Dwight Howard One-Number Metric Peaks

LEBRON-6.57 (2011)

NBA Shot Charts RAPM-4.59 (2011)


Joel Embiid

LEBRON-6.39 (2022)

NBA Shot Charts RAPM-3.45 (2021)

There is more to consider of course, but I don't really love Embiid lead offenses, and therefore the value of him as a #1 perhaps doesn't move me quite as much. Yes, he is indeed better quite ahead of Dwight offensively, but from 19-21, Embiid lead a +1.6 rORTG in the PS. This year he lead a 3.1 rORTG. The offense isn't particularly aspiring to me, and this is Embiid who has played with some decent playmakers like Butler, Simmons, and Harden during this span. Dwight never had quite the same benefits. From 08-10, flanking Dwight with shooters still lead the Magic to a +4.7 rORTG, because Dwight's gravity as an interior was that difficult to distrupt, in a way that I am not certain Embiid has. I think Embiid is one of the GOAT lob bigs, and believe with a more premier playmaker, could look even better. He was at about an Inflation Adjusted 23 pts per 75 on shooting over 10.1% ahead of league average in the PS. From 11-14, Dwight averaged an Inflation Adjusted 26.0 pts per 75 on rTS% of 9.4%. Embiid's best stretch under the same measure is 28.8 per 75 on rTS% 3.3% ahead of the league (19-21). Dwight once again did this without the level of playmakers Embiid did; the way Dwight plays, he can get his points very efficiently, and his run and jump athleticism means he can score more within the flow of an offense.

I think in Dwight's era, you can more easily put up a championship level defense with Dwight as a centerpiece, than you can with with Embiid as the best offensive player on a championship team. Embiid in more as a #2 role, could perhaps persuade me, but I just feel more confidence with Dwight at this time. 09-11 Dwight lead a -6 rDRTG in the playoffs, while the best Embiid has lead is a -3.1 from 19-21; this is with Embiid having good defensive personnel, and playing along with Ben Simmons who got ample DPOY Buzz in 21 (although he didn't deserve it). Dwight's defense is in other words more outlier than Embiid's offense, and I feel like Dwight is a fine offensive player such that gap is perhaps not as big as the defensive gap.

Dwight is better than all of them by quite a bit. Gobert vs Howard on defense is an interesting question.




I think on offense Embiid vs Howard is not close, granted on defense Embiid isn't very close to Howard either.

I certainly think Embiid could anchor a great offense, but the Sixers are not designed for that.

LukaTheGOAT wrote:From 08-10, flanking Dwight with shooters still lead the Magic to a +4.7 rORTG, because Dwight's gravity as an interior was that difficult to distrupt, in a way that I am not certain Embiid has.

Is that what was going on? The relative ORTG is interesting, but the league environment was different.

2008: ORL 111.3 (7), 107.5 (lgav), Shard (59.1% TS, 6.8 3PA/g at 40.9%) and Turk (57.6% TS) also averaging 18-20 ppg (lgav 54.0% TS)
2009: ORL 109.2 (11), 108.3 (lgav), 54.4% TS lgav
2010: ORL 111.4 (4), 107.6 (lgav), 54.3% TS lgav, no more Turk, now Vince Carter

PHI

2019: PHI 112.6 (8), lgav 110.4, 56.0% TS environment
2020: 111.3 (13), lgav 110.6, 56.5% TS environment
2021: 113.2 (13), lgav 112.3, 57.2% TS environment

Deviation from league average is a hard one to sell to an extent when you're looking at league averages higher than the team ORTG that Dwight put out. And while I realize you're looking at postseason and these are RS numbers, it does establish some context when you note that league average was higher than the best offense Dwight ever produced in Orlando, you know what I mean? There is a point where it becomes challenging to actually deviate to a comparable degree. Obviously, a dozen other teams did it better than Philly in 2021, so it's far from impossible, but with all the injuries they had, it's kind of hard to look at that and say "oh, that's clearly a talent difference." No, not really, though it does circle back to the idea of durability being a concern with Embiid... and Simmons. And of course Tobias Harris is nothing special. And Dwight himself was on the 2021 Sixers, heh.

Then at some point, you look at something like the 21 Sixers and see 28 ppg on over 63% TS from Embiid, rocking a +6.3 OBPM (which is about +1.6 over the best Dwight ever managed in a postseason), and we start to get a little fuzzier on player impact versus team failure around player.

That said, you made some other interesting points. Dwight's defense was very, very good. And while we again run into the "I wonder what the team would look like with a full season from Embiid" issue as far as the actual margins of his team's D and O, he's never healthy, so it remains an issue. Through 2011, Dwight was pretty beastly as far as just being on the court, which is a sometimes-underrated attribute, it's true.

I think it's pretty clear that Embiid is a lot better than Dwight ever was on offense, but that his teams weren't as well-coached or as cohesive in terms of their talent than those Magic... relative to their own league environments. Hedo and Shard were a real nightmare for teams because of their size and mobility coupled to range which opened things up for Dwight to move around on the inside. The Sixers, on the other hand, used the 3ball 5th least in the league in 2021. Seth Curry and Danny Green were good, but it's not the same when you've got spot-up guys versus your primary ball-handlers and volume guys drawing that attention. Also, the 2021 Sixers were a -4.7 defense, which is still pretty good all told, particularly given all of their health issues.

And again, to be sure, RS vs PS. But for an example of how they did... 107.6 DRTG in the RS. Faced Washington and Atlanta.

vs WAS: 111.2 RS, 108.2 vs PHI. And of course Philly walked all over them to the tune of 122 ORTG. +7, +25, +29, -8, +17.

vs ATL: 115.7 RS, 109.7 vs PHI. A significant hack against Atlanta's offense, right in that -6 range you were discussing. Philly was actually +2.9 in that series as far as ORTG differential. Tight-fought 7-game series. -4, +16, +16, -3, -3, +5, -7. Kevin Huerter burned them in Game 7 in the second half, and Tobias Harris choked his life away. Korkmaz and Harris combined to go 3/12 from 3. And of course, they had turnover issues, which comes back to Embiid, but Dwight's even worse than Embiid in that regard, so I'm not making a huge deal of it.

It's an interesting discussion, in the end. I suppose I was probably not treating Embiid's health with quite as much impact as I might have. I'd forgotten exactly how many games he tends to miss per season. But this was also a nice little trip down memory lane for how GOOD Orlando was at the time. They were quite a bit ahead of their time, which is one of the reasons I was so frustrated with Dwight when he started rocking the boat. And because he's got rocks in his head, I think it's a little easy to forget how good he was, because he was quite the player for a solid stretch there.

Comfortably ahead of anyone not named Embiid and Jokic.