Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #32 - 1997-98 Karl Malone

Moderators: penbeast0, PaulieWal, Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ, trex_8063

User avatar
LA Bird
Analyst
Posts: 3,592
And1: 3,327
Joined: Feb 16, 2015

Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #32 - 1997-98 Karl Malone 

Post#1 » by LA Bird » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:43 pm

RealGM Greatest Peaks List (2022)
1. 1990-91 Michael Jordan
2. 2012-13 LeBron James
3. 1999-00 Shaquille O'Neal
4. 1976-77 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
5. 1966-67 Wilt Chamberlain
6. 2002-03 Tim Duncan
7. 1993-94 Hakeem Olajuwon
8. 1963-64 Bill Russell
9. 1985-86 Larry Bird
10. 1986-87 Magic Johnson
11. 2016-17 Stephen Curry
12. 2003-04 Kevin Garnett
13. 2020-21 Giannis Antetokounmpo
14. 1963-64 Oscar Robertson
15. 1965-66 Jerry West
16. 2021-22 Nikola Jokic
17. 1976-77 Bill Walton
18. 2005-06 Dwyane Wade
19. 2007-08 Kobe Bryant
20. 1993-94 David Robinson
21. 2016-17 Kawhi Leonard
22. 1975-76 Julius Erving
23. 2010-11 Dirk Nowitzki
24. 2016-17 Kevin Durant
25. 1982-83 Moses Malone
26. 2019-20 Anthony Davis
27. 2006-07 Steve Nash
28. 2014-15 Chris Paul
29. 2018-19 James Harden
30. 1949-50 George Mikan
31. 1989-90 Charles Barkley
32. ?

Spoiler:
Please vote for your 3 highest player peaks and at least one line of reasoning for each of them.

Vote example 1
1. 1991 Jordan: Explanation
2. 2013 LeBron: Explanation
3. 2000 Shaq: Explanation

In addition, you can also list other peak season candidates from those three players. This extra step is entirely optional

Vote example 2
1. 1991 Jordan: Explanation
(1990 Jordan)
2. 2013 LeBron: Explanation
(2012 LeBron)
(2009 LeBron)
3. 2000 Shaq: Explanation

You can visit the project thread for further information on why this makes a difference and how the votes will be counted at the end of the round.

Voting for this round will close on Sunday September 25, 9am ET.
User avatar
AEnigma
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,047
And1: 5,850
Joined: Jul 24, 2022
 

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #32 

Post#2 » by AEnigma » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:11 pm

AEnigma wrote:1. Patrick Ewing (1990)
Shouldered a heavy offensive load like 1982 Moses Malone while providing strong defence. Ewing sadly had no true chance at MVP that year with peak-ish Magic and Jordan in the league, nor was he fortunate enough to be traded to a 1982 76ers equivalent. However, he did go on his own monstrous scoring run and pull off an unexpected upset of Bird’s Celtics, where Ewing won three straight elimination games averaging an efficient 36/13/5, including a road win in the league’s toughest road environment. Shortly after, with Pat Riley as his coach and a better but still unspectacular supporting cast, he came the closest to beating each of the 1992 Bulls, 1993 Bulls, and 1994 Rockets in their respective title years. If he had been his 1990 self, instead of a few years on with degrading knees and overall athleticism, maybe he could have broken through (almost certainly in 1994). Timing is such an under-appreciated element of how legacies are built in this sport.

Here are some of the best posts and articles I was able to find about that season:
Spoiler:
https://hardwoodhype.com/the-work/f/nba-1989-90-peak-patrick-ewing
Hardwood Hype wrote:Already a bona fide star, the 1989-90 season is the one in which Ewing catapulted himself into SUPERstardom.

Ewing hit on 55.1% of his shots and a career-high 77.5% of his free throws en route to 28.6 points per game, third-best in the league and a career-high. For good measure, 10.9 rebounds per game, which was fifth in the league, was his best to date, as were his Assist (10.0%) and Turnover Rates (12.4%).

Twenty-one times he scored at 35 points in a game – in no other season did he do so more than eleven times. Eleven times he went for at least 40 – it’s the only time he reached 40 more than four times in a season. He set a single-season high with twelve games of 30+ and at least 15 rebounds. On ten of those occasions he scored at least 35 – he never did this more than five times in any other season. Eight times in his career Ewing scored at least 30 and grabbed at least 20 rebounds. He did it three times in ’89-‘90 – it’s the only season in which he did it more than once. Two of these were the only 40-20 games of his career. By Basketball Reference Game Score, this is the season in which he turned his top four (and five of the top-ten) individual performances, regular and postseason. Only once since 1983-84 (the date from which B-R has Game Scores) has a center topped four such games in a season.

This is a breakout season of volume greatness and performances, by a short-lived version of Patrick Ewing. Beyond the goofy great statistics and but special, historic performances (more on this in a sec), this is a different Ewing than the Dream Teamer, let alone, the one who anchored the contending Knicks teams to come.

Consider the first of those 40-20s. A month into the season, during the Knicks’ annual visit to Oakland, Ewing positively battered the Warriors, making 17 of 27 shots on his way to 44 points, while grabbing 24 rebounds – ten of them offensive –blocking three shots and handing out four assists in an easy win.

And the hits just kept coming. Three nights later in Phoenix, he had 41, 8 and 4, with five blocks. Two weeks after that, on December 16, it was 30, 14 and six blocks in a home win over the Sonics. Three nights after that, 41, 15 and four blocks in another win, this time over the Jazz.

By the numbers, that night in northern California remained the best regular performance of his career… for about five weeks. On January 7 he basically replicated the feat at home against the Clippers, again scoring 44, this time with 22 rebounds, seven blocked shots, four assists and a pair of steals. Two nights later he hung 35 on the Bullets, before putting a 33 and 12, with five assists and eight blocks on the Bulls at MSG.

And so it went… 38, 15 and four blocks in Dallas… 24, 11 and nine against Miami… 35, 13 and seven the next night in Orlando… 33, 13 and six in Houston… a pair of 41s in wins on either side of the All-Star break, with a combined 25 rebounds and eleven blocks… 37, 13, six assists and three blocks against the defending champion Pistons… 30, 18 and six blocks against Philly… and on… and on…

The game at the Garden on March 24 was always going to be an event, as any visit from the Celtics was in those days. Though the Knicks ultimately fell by five, it was another milestone for Ewing, who grabbed a whopping 18 rebounds to go with a career-high 51, and looked completely unstoppable doing it.

The next time out it was 41 and 12 with four blocks against the Bullets. Four days later it was 37, 21 and six against Denver. This is one of ten 35/20/6 performances recorded since 1973-74 – it was Ewing’s second of the season, and remains the most recent. He went for 37 twice more in the week that followed, first with 17 rebounds in Washington, and two nights later, with 19 rebounds and nine blocks in a home win against Philly. Six times since 1973-74 has a player has scored 35, grabbed 15 rebounds and blocked nine shots in a game. Only four times has it been done in regulation. This is one of them. No one has done it since.

fatal9 wrote:Some context around the 1990 Knicks: The Knicks started out 34-17 before making the Strickland/Cheeks trade. Then finished the season 11-20 for a combination of reasons. I wish I had game 3 of the Celtics series on my computer because Peter Vecsey does a decent job in a halftime segment of showing all the chemistry issues the Knicks had in the last couple of months of the season (these issues were why Knicks were given no chance to beat the Celtics). From making the Strickland trade, to Mark Jackson getting booed on the court and benched for 33 year old Cheeks, to Oakley fracturing his left hand and missing games, to Kiki V coming back and joining the team. These are a LOT of lineup changes for a team to endure mid-season, Knicks had a different starting PG, a different starting PF (Oakley out), a different starting SF (all of whom were defensive downgrades) in the last month of the season than they did when they were winning and putting up one of the best records in the league. I don't think it's a coincidence how the team performance changed so much just as the Knicks began encountering instability in their lineup. Unfortunately this stretch thwarted Ewing's MVP campaign as well (he was in the convo with Magic, Barkley, MJ for it). That was a 50+ win team disguised by the issues at the end of the season, so I would say Ewing was doing a great job of getting the best out of what he was given.

Some posts here seem to be have no sense of context surrounding his season, no analysis of his game (probably haven't bothered to watch any games), just going off a very very superficial analysis of "let me check PER and team defensive rating" and draw conclusions. This type of analysis is only going to produce outrageous statements such as "90 Malone was better than Ewing" or that Ewing "wasn't even on par with Dwight".

This is a peak project, I have a feeling people are letting their bias from mid/late 90s Ewing (who I have issues with offensively too) cloud their judgement on how good he was this year. I had a similar bias, but then I began watching his games from that season (about 15 or so) and what I'm seeing a dominant defender (his defensive versatility is better here than later in the 90s, my one gripe defensively would be that he was more prone to foul trouble this season than he would be later) with an offensive package like we've never seen Ewing put together at any other point of his career.

Why was he so much better offensively? As I've been mentioning, he had more variety in his offensive game, this was something everyone in the league was talking about. He went from being a predictable offensive player who was easy to game plan for, to being a lot more well rounded who mixed up and expanded his scoring repertoire. He was better at creating space on his shots, got that extra bit of separation he wasn't quite getting later as the years went on and a result he was having a lot of success as a one on one scorer in the post. He was at his physical peak in the NBA, insane stamina, a lot more athletic, moved better, had a bit more spring in his legs, which naturally allowed him to have a better conversion rate around the basket. His aggressiveness is completely different, he wasn't content to bail you out with fadeaways all game, he attacked the defense more often ever and consequently posted the best FTA numbers of his career (combined with a career best FT% which further raised his efficiency). His passing also took a big leap that year. While he wasn't Shaq or prime Hakeem, he was competent at reading doubles, this is another observation that is obvious to me from watching games and also reading/listening to what people around the league were saying.

This isn't a guy who saw an increase in his averages because he just upped his numbers and feasted on bad defenses either (like say D-Rob in '94), he was lighting up everyone. Here he is putting up 41/15 on Eaton:

Here is the game where he put up 45/16 against the best defensive team in the league:
His offensive numbers against good defensive teams/centers were very good over the course of the entire season.

Here's a Sports Illustrated article midway through the season (when Knicks were 25-10) talking about Ewing's amazing improvement on offense and how surprised everyone was by how much he improved:
But what the NBA is seeing these days, and is likely to be seeing through a good bit of the next decade, is much, much more. Some of the old images of Ewing are dated. He has buried them under an avalanche of soft, turnaround jump shots. "The book on him always was, Make him shoot over you, make him earn it," says Boston's backup center, Joe Kleine. "Well, now he's earning it." The power, the intimidation, the fearlessness are still there, but so are grace and finesse and economy of movement, terms previously associated with Houston's Akeem Olajuwon, Ewing's yardstick through most of the '80s, and San Antonio rookie David Robinson, the only other NBA center currently mentioned in the same breath with Ewing and Olajuwon.

Ewing's play has been an even more important component of New York's success. "He might be the best in the game right now," Los Angeles's Mychal Thompson told the New York Daily News after Ewing scored 29 points in a 115-104 loss on Dec. 3. "He and Magic [Johnson] are shoulder to shoulder."

"I know what people are saying now," says Jazz coach Jerry Sloan, "but when he came out of college, I don't recall anybody thinking he would score like this."

"I worked on some things this summer, just like I always do. I wanted to get better on coming into the lane with my left hand, and I've done that. I'm getting to the foul line more [his eight attempts per game are about two more than last season], and that's helped my scoring. But I haven't changed my jump shot. It just got better.

Ewing gradually improved under Pitino, but only recently has the whole package been unwrapped. It reveals an agile seven-footer whose turnaround jumper is accurate up to 20 feet; a heady player who discourages double-teaming with canny passes; an outstanding athlete who has somehow figured out the exotic fast-break passing strategies of point guards Mark Jackson and Rod Strickland, both of whom never make a simple move when 13 complicated ones will do; and a defensive intimidator whose 3.7 blocks per game at week's end were second only to Olajuwon's league-leading 4.2.

''He has taken his game to another level,'' Johnson continued, ''a level I've never seen him play at before. He's dominating offensively and defensively, but he's also making the right plays at the right time. He's leading his team, as opposed to before, when it seemed he'd just as soon let somebody else lead. That's the real mark of an MVP.'

https://vault.si.com/.amp/vault/1990/01/22/the-big-man-gets-bigger-patrick-ewing-has-added-finesse-to-his-intimidating-presence-and-made-new-york-an-nba-force

And people are questioning this guy's defense? Come on...this is '92-'94 Ewing but with way better knees. I mean every game I've seen of his from this season, it's the type of combo of scoring variety, defense and athleticism, Knicks fans always wished he had. He was seen as a better center than Hakeem that year, made the all-NBA first over him and had coaches around the league saying he was the best center in the league.

Parish said that Ewing "is a better player today because he has variety of shots, just doesn't throw the fadeaway jumpshot, he gives you the jump hook and his spin move on the baseline is the toughest thing for me to guard" (so this isn't exactly the fadeaway jumpers all game long offensive version of Ewing we remember most). From what I've read guys say about him, he took a big leap in his post game that season but declined as the 90s went on because his knees got worse and worse (and of course he aged, he was in his 30s during '92-'94...and consequently shot jumpers wayyyyyy more often), and as a result so did his efficiency. Even in something like FT shooting, it's way above his career average and his best year ever. He is doing a lot of heavy lifting offensively...must be turning the ball over a lot like he always did, but nope, while putting up the scoring numbers he did, he also posted the third best TOV% of his career. It's not like Ewing is inexperienced here either, he is 27-28 which is usually when players peak so career trajectory wise, it makes sense.

Knicks were still above average defensively considering the following things: a rookie head coach (Stu Jackson, fired 15 games into next season...and only coached one other team after that, the 6-33 Grizzlies), the second best defender on the team missing 21 games, a bad defensive backcourt particularly when Kiki joins the team. I would say he's making pretty good impact here (and we know he can probably make a lot more if he is on a championship caliber team where he doesn't have to score as much). This is one of the great interior defenders of all time, he didn't learn defense when he was 30 years old just like KG didn't magically learn to play defense when he joined the Celtics. His comparison was Bill Russell coming out of college, he was seen as one of the finest defensive talents ever. The questions weren't "can he defend?" but "can he add enough to his post game?" (and he did in 1990). In terms of interior defense, he's ones of the best ever, anything you threw around the basket was going to get challenged, no easy baskets even it meant you put him on a poster. He's second in the league in blocks behind Hakeem, I know averages aren't everything but this isn't Javale McGee we are talking about, but a fundamentally sound defensive player, who plays great post defense and whose block averages reflect his ability to absolutely lock down the paint. I'm going to guess a better moving version of the guy who was anchoring historic defenses a year and a half later was still pretty damn effective on defense. Seems like a reasonable conclusion.

Regarding the Ewing Theory. It refers to the mid/late 90s version of Ewing (in his mid 30s) who is 5+ years away from the year in question here and a CLEAR step down offensively. Even if it were true, it's not very relevant. It's like using Kobe's impact last couple of years to define his impact in '08.

One thing I kind of wish there was more of an argument for was D-Rob (who I think went a few spots too high) vs. Ewing. Would people really take '95 D-Rob in a playoff series over '90 Ewing? Has D-Rob ever taken over offensively for his teams in the playoffs like that? Could D-Rob give the bad boy Pistons defense 45 point game and then come back and drop 30 points in the second half of the next game? And don't forget the intangibles, Ewing was intimidating on the court, a better leader, a guy who has an impact over the entire mentality of the team. I think a great argument I read for D-Rob was that he'd be a great second banana offensively on a championship team but would still be the best overall player on the team...could the same thing not be said about '90 Ewing?
lorak wrote:Another great post by fatal and I agree with you 100% (even youtube video you posted was uploaded by me, because I was so impressed by Ewing's play).

And Ewing theory is completly BS... at least until he was 36 years old. In 1986 he missed 32 games and NYK without him were worse by 6.2 efficiency pts (Ewing improved offense by 1 and defense by 5,2).

1987: 19 games missed, -7 without Ewing (0.4 offense, 6,6 defense)

1996: 6 games missed, -10.6 without Ewing (he improved defense by 12.2 drtg! but offense was worse with him by 1.6)

1998: 56 games missed, -5.4 without Ewing (he improved defense by 7.3 but offense was worse with him by 1.9)

1999: 12 games missed, NYK were better without him by 2.7 eff pts (but still defense was better with Ewing by 1.5)

2000: 20 games missed, team worse by 1.1 with Ewing (but with him offense was better by 3.5 and defense worse by 4.6)

So we see that through almost whole career he was great defensive player and during his early years, before knees were destroyed by injuries, he was also slightly positive player on offense. I really see no reason to put him so much behind DRob whose profile and impact on the game are very close to Ewing's.

E-Balla wrote:1990 Patrick Ewing - This season is spectacular. Ewing was legitimately up for MVP along with Barkley and Magic for most of the season prior to his team making some moves that hurt them. In the first 52 games of the season the Knicks went 34-17 (55 win pace) with Ewing averaging 27.8/10.2/2.3 (4.9 combined blocks and steals) on 58.7 TS% with a 114 ORTG. After the trade the Knicks went 11-20 which would make one assume Ewing didn't play well but he actually played better with the team around him falling apart. He averaged 30.0/12.1/2.1 (4.9 combined blocks and steals) on 61.9 TS% with a 116 ORTG in the last 31 games.

At one point they had a 1-9 stretch where Ewing averaged 32.1/12.5/1.3 (5.0 blocks and steals combined) on 64.5 TS%. His career high was in that stretch, a 51 point performance in a loss to the Celtics.

Then the playoffs came and Ewing went off. In game 1 vs Boston they lost pretty handedly and in game 2 they allowed Boston to break the playoff record for points with 157 (a record that still stands). Following that embarrassment at Boston they were facing elimination in game 3. Ewing and Oakley really turned on the defense and dominated the glass with Ewing grabbing 19 boards in the 3 point win. They followed that with a game 4 blowout win where Ewing played what's probably his best game ever with 44 points, 7 steals, 5 assists, and shooting 75% from the field. Now they were tied up in the series attempting to become the 2nd [sic] team to comeback from being down 0-2 and at the same time hoping to break a 28 game losing streak in Boston (the last time they won in Boston was in 84). The Knicks won that closely contested game with the momentum shifting towards the end of the game with Larry Bird missing an easy dunk and Ewing shortly after making his iconic turnaround 3 pointer.

On Larry Bird missing that dunk this is from SI's article on that series:
When Larry Bird missed the dunk—a point-blank dunk at crunch time in a do-or-die playoff game in Boston Garden—he did so not as a result of any strange astrological occurrence or the Massachusetts budget crisis or even tough defense.

He did so, by his own account, because he was worried. "I wasn't going to dunk it," he explained after the game. "But I thought Patrick was coming, so I tried to. And then I jumped too high, if you can believe it."

Believe it, as hard as it may seem. It is not the business of Boston Celtics to feel shadowy presences, least of all for Larry Legend to feel one from a New York Knick in the building in which New York had lost 26 straight times and hadn't won in the playoffs since the Nixon administration. This was the Garden, and the ghosts are supposed to be friendly. But: "I thought Patrick was coming."

If the truth be told, at the time of Bird's misguided dunk attempt, any Celtic was entitled to be wary of these Knicks. A little more than four minutes remained in Sunday's fifth and final game of these teams' first-round Eastern Conference playoff series, and the Patrick in question, a certain Mr. Ewing, had just feathered in a jump-hook to give New York a 103-99 lead. Ewing did just about everything asked of him in this game. He finished with 31 points and 10 assists, and those figures are stark testimony to how shrewdly he picked apart Boston's double teams with opportune passes and drives.

https://vault.si.com/.amp/vault/1990/05/14/oh-those-cheeky-knicks-mo-cheeks-drove-new-york-to-a-stunning-win-over-boston

Following that series they were completely outmatched by the Pistons but Ewing wasn't. He had some stinkers but overall averaged 27.2 ppg on 56 TS% which is more PPG than anyone outside of MJ (who was only as efficient as Ewing one of those 3 years) averaged against the Pistons in a series between 88 and 90.

EDIT: I punched the numbers. MJ averaged 30.0 ppg on 56.0 TS% against the Pistons from 88 to 90. He averaged 25.4 points per 36. Ewing averaged 26.2 points per 36 against them on 56.0 TS%. So his scoring performance against them was right there with MJ's average scoring performance against them.

Overall that's a pretty great season, but it's not the most impressive left on the board so why 90 Ewing? Well here's how I see his game:

Scoring - 28.6 ppg on +6.2 rTS% speaks for itself. Post merger only Moses (in 81), Robinson (in 94), and Shaq (in 94, 95, 00, and 01) have scored more ppg as a center. Only Shaq in 94, 00, and 01 did it on higher efficiency. In the playoffs he showed he could consistently score on that level scoring 29.4 ppg on 57.9 TS% in the playoffs. Post merger only Shaq (in 98, 00, and 01), Hakeem (in 88 and 95), and Kareem (in 77 and 80) scored more ppg than Ewing in the 90 playoffs. Only Kareem in both years, and Shaq in 98 did it on higher efficiency.

Then you look at his skillset. He had a robotic but effective post game with a predictable but at times unstoppable running hook shot, great speed and strength, the best jumper for any true C I've seen outside of KAT, and his one weakness was probably his small hands which at times limited him on lobs and lead to easy misses of his signature finger roll. There's a solid argument to be made that outside of the true greats (Kareem, Hakeem, Wilt, Moses, Shaq) he's the best scoring C ever. I think his scoring game would suit the modern game amazingly too. Ewing got most of his buckets back then off quick actions and turnaround jumpers, things that would be more valued in today's league at his size.

His passing and rebounding on the other hand were never strong. His passing was below average and his rebounding was mediocre at best for his size.

There's been a lot of discussion about his defense this year. Discussion I don't really understand. Ewing was still an elite defender in 1990 and I don't really have any reason to think he improved after 1990. Played better? In 1992, definitely, but outside of that the biggest change in the quality of the Knicks defense those years was due to his support and most of all the coach. The coach's effect on defensive ratings is always overlooked but there's no great defenses that don't have great defensive coaches and his supporting cast was Oak, Wilkins, and a bunch of scrubs in 1990.

On that end he was a beast out on the perimeter capable of sticking with smaller guys, super athletic and capable of blocking shots at their apex, the best PNR defender of all the Cs of that era (DRob, Hakeem, Deke, and a little later Zo) and he had fast hands capable of stopping drives. Can anyone actually say what he improved at under Pat Riley? I mean performances aren't consistent which is why I think he was better defensively in 89, 92, etc. but why believe Ewing was a meaningfully better defender in the mid 90s just because he finally got a supporting cast that was dominant on that end and a great defensive coach?

I think tons of people just aren't used to seeing young Ewing so they see the numbers and can't connect it to him being legitimately better, and assume he had to have improved later when in reality he lost a ton of his athleticism and really didn't add much to his game. 93/94 Ewing isn't locking down Edwards on the perimeter, forcing Isiah to pick up his dribble and rush a pass (causing a turnover) after a switch in the PNR, drawing a charge on Isiah all the way at the dotted line with his quick reaction and movement (it was called blocking but he's clearly there in time), stopping 3 on 1 fast breaks because no one wanted to go up with it with him around, and at the end of the game blocking Isiah's layup from the other side of the basket.

2. Dwight Howard (2011)
Put simply, I think he is the best remaining defender in contention (perhaps depending on whether Thurmond qualifies as a contender, which he might), and while I have some issues with his offensive profile in the postseason and with that profile’s ability to translate dynamically across different teams, his intense rim gravity gives him a pretty fair floor. He was a top player on par with several already admitted — 2009-11 Wade, 2009-11 Dirk, 2005-11 Nash — and has a theoretical framework of “Rudy Gobert with legitimate scoring pressure”. As with Ewing, also worth considering just how much timing affects our assessments: could the 2011 iteration of Dwight and a healthy Jameer Nelson have won the title in 2009?

3. Karl Malone (1998)
Been grappling more with Malone versus McGrady. Was siding with Malone for a while, but then felt a little swayed by consensus and thought I may have been unfair to McGrady given his historical outlier reputation. And as I was also grappling with Penny and Rick Barry, he did seem like an obvious precursor, so I managed to convince myself that I was attributing too much to Malone and not enough to McGrady. But I have been getting a tad lower on Penny, and I have also been giving a closer review to Malone. I think my initial instincts were right. The reason I tend to prefer two-way bigs is because they typically have a higher game impact even when their scoring is limited (either by scheme or by just having an off-day). I walked that back slightly for Malone off skepticism that he was having enough impact on either end to justify that. I think I over-corrected on that impulse.

Falco makes a fair point that judging 2003 McGrady on defence he showed in surrounding years gives too much credit. In prior projects a small few have argued 2002 as McGrady’s peak, and to an extent I dismissed them because I think an offensive improvement is more reasonable than an outright defensive decline if in equal situations. I stand by that, but then I still should acknowledge that praising McGrady for increasing his volume as he did without criticising the defensive drop ignores the reason I tend to prefer bigs in the first place.

Which brings us back to Malone. His offensive load was honestly not that meaningfully different than McGrady’s. I gave McGrady credit for captaining a better offence than Malone did without Stockton and with a “good” co-star in Hornacek… but even with Stockton, the Jazz were excessively reliant on Malone to handle a massive scoring load against defences aware that stopping him may as well be the equivalent to stopping the Jazz. This was similarly true for McGrady, but McGrady at least strong spacing and decent offensive rebounding to support him. Malone had shooters who were reluctant to shoot and offensive rebounding that was at best merely okay outside of him — and of course has less of his value tied to scoring than McGrady does, which makes it easier to accommodate an actual co-star. With all that in mind, I am comfortable with taking Malone on an average team over McGrady.
Spoiler:
Elgee wrote:the RS numbers need to be remembered in interpreting what happened to Utah in the PS. This is a 27 ppg/58% guy changing to 27 ppg/53%...but there are also circumstantial changes to consider.

I've written about the change in role in the PS, largely IMO bc Stockton was incapable of certain things for the heart of Malone's career. The rest of the team's turnovers plummet (an indication they are "doing" less), for example, as Malone does more. (I'd call it unipolar, but I have a lot of respect for the Jazz offensive sets.) As a result, we see Malone in more iso situations, absolutely.

With jordan, Shaq and Hakeem as the only other better statistical PS scorers of the period (or perhaps Reggie Miller?)...

I've written about this before... https://web.archive.org/web/20120222015812/www.backpicks.com/2012/02/07/john-stocktons-legacy-impact-and-playoff-failures/; Most players will drop no more than 1.5% in TS% more than we "expect" in the PS based on their opponent strength. Malone drops more than any other notable star since the merger, at 3.9%.

You know who else has an enormous drop? His teammate, Stockton (-3.4%). Chicken, meet egg. But if you believe that Stockton was helping Malone get better shots, only Stockton's own game limits the pressure he can put on a PS defense, then that shifts some of the role to Malone (which bastillon was saying). That we still see 27 ppg scoring and excellent offensive results (remember Malone was a fantastic passer) means it doesn't make much sense to say his scoring was "REALLLYYYY overstated."

The 94 Jazz had "second options" of Horny and Stock...but really Stock was a PG who wasn't going to take over the game scoring and he didn't have the same scoring threat we see today from guys like Paul or Nash (heck it wasn't close to the same as Penny.) Horny was a spacer/shooter, and a good one, and his arrival boosted the Jazz offense. So what you get is:

94 Malone 27 ppg 53% TS (Hornacek 15 ppg/59%, Stockton 14/52%)
95 Malone 30 ppg 55% TS (Hornacek 12/60%, Stockton 18/55%)
96 Malone 27 ppg 50% TS (Hornacek 18/65%, Stockton 12/60%)
97 Malone 26 ppg 50% TS (Hornacek 15/57%, Stockton 16/63%)
98 Malone 26 ppg 53% TS (Hornacek 11/53%, Stockton 11/57%)

Malone's A 27 ppg, 53% TSer who was carrying an enormous load. The Jazz postseason offenses in those years were:

Utah PS offenses
94 +4.5
95 +8.5
96 +6.7
97 +6.5
98 +0.1 (and that was +4.3 in the WC PS before the debacle in Chi)

So you're left with a scorer, who is the primary scorer, who is scoring at a rate that only the all-time best eclipse, and his team's ORtg changes correlate strongly (0.77 from 92-98) with his individual ORtg changes. Here are the players I consider to be better offensive post players and their PS numbers*:

Hakeem (93-95): 27/57%
Shaq (00-02): 30/56%
Kareem (77-80): 32/62%
Dirk (09-11): 27/62%
Barkley (89-93): 26/58%

And here's the crux of the point: If Malone could maintain his volume/efficiency (27/58%) despite the changes in what his teammates were doing in playoff series...he'd actually be raising his game significantly. Significantly! Heck, 27/56% would be raising his game a lot because that would simply be the "expected" TS% against those defenses. This is, in a statistical sense, what Hakeem did (and why he was voted in at No. 5). If Malone was doing this, he'd quite likely have multiple championship rings and we'd have voted him in a long time ago.

So I guess if you think of Malone as a 30/60% guy, then that does really overstate him as an iso scorer. If you think of him as a 27/53% guy on a good team (or for some, a really good team), that understates him as a scorer. Who cares about the semantics here though, when the important point is that Malone is an excellent scorer who is just a cut below the all-timers.

*Malone 92-98 is 27/53% (103.9 opp DRtg). He's +1.6% aTS% gainst his opponent's, and when we incorporate how good of a passer he was, there just simply aren't any bigs left who are better offensively. Other bigs in their prime as PS scorers:

Duncan 23/55% v 103.7 DRtg teams
Moses 23/55% v 103.2 DRtg teams
Ewing 23/55% v 105.1 DRtg teams
Robinson 23/55% v 106.5 DRtg teams

fatal9 wrote:If we take out isolation offense, Malone is maybe the best scorer ever. He is incredible at scoring in context of the team, kind of like “take nothing off the table” type of guy in the offense. He spaces out the floor. He gets your offense easy baskets. He RUNS offense for you out of the high post. He threads passes from the post to hit cutters. He is a legit offensive hub. He makes opponents think twice about fighting through his screens. He reads defenses well. He's elite in the pick and roll. He is a capable iso scorer (mediocre when compared to the best). He does an amazing job at putting himself in position to score without the ball (has a knack for where to be, and also has brute strength to get position where ever he wants). He can score an efficient 25 without ever stopping the ball or putting it on the floor. If he grabs a defensive rebound, he’s throwing an outlet pass in the receiver's lap. He is an incredibly effective team offensive player. You lose a lot with him off the floor.

I think it's absurd that people are questioning Malone's team impact when his strength as a scorer and offensive player is how well he does it WITH the team (and how well the team does with a player like him on the floor). No, I don't think old Stockton and old Hornacek playing 30 mpg are the co-anchors of an offense that was better than MJ's Bulls. I can’t throw out all I see based on a single piece of data that isn't even from the time period in question and is filled with confounding variables galore.

Malone’s regular season impact is and never was a question to me. I have problems with his isolation scoring in the playoffs and to me that was a big flaw when we were discussing him with players in the 15-20 range (who were 5+ type offensive players). Now we are at 25, the flaw isn’t quite as glaring because everyone now has one thing or another

Sorry for that late edit.
MyUniBroDavis wrote:Some people are clearly far too overreliant on data without context and look at good all in one or impact numbers and get wowed by that rather than looking at how a roster is actually built around a player
Stan
Veteran
Posts: 2,558
And1: 3,849
Joined: Oct 11, 2019

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #32 

Post#3 » by Stan » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:37 pm

Damn, McGrady & Ewing dropped 10 whole spots in the span of 3 years.
falcolombardi
General Manager
Posts: 9,286
And1: 6,896
Joined: Apr 13, 2021
       

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #32 

Post#4 » by falcolombardi » Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:40 pm

1- 1990 ewing

Out of the 3 biggest 90's names left (karl, chuck and ewing) i believe him to be the easiest one to build a championship around

His defense will fit anywhere and his offense could have been optimized as a pick and roll partner alongside more talented ballhandlers

The knicks prolonged contention in the 90's anchored by a physicslly diminished ewing hint that imo

2- 1996 karl malone (1992)

In spite of his scoring drop offs he was capable of co-anchoring a ultra elite offense while simultaneously providing some spacing, great defensive rebounding (keeping the bulls off the glass in 97/98 was lowkey incredible) and legitimely brilliant passing. While beint able to be elite alongside a quality ballhandler thanks to his passing and shooting threat. And providind strong defense

Like pippen he is a player who can do a ton for your team in spite of mediocre scoring efficiency as a first option. Prefering pippen or karl comes down to a flip coin for me

3-1994 scottie pippen (1996, 1995)

Many will probably disagree here but i am that high on scottie. He can anchor a contending level team in both ends (shown in 94) and be one of the most impactful second options in the history of the game due to his ability to impact the game without dominating the ball or taking a ton of shots

Compare him with barkley. Pippen bulls in 94 match favorably with the best barkley sixers teams

The 93 suns were fantastic but that was a team that was routinely winning 55~ games a year before him and had a strong kevin johnson led offense already. Put 94 pippen in barkley place and i could see a scenario where they are even better

Repeating my votes for now. When i watch more film of other guys i may reconsider

This project is starting to catch me with limited free time to watch games (specially of older players i am less familiar with)

But from players i know better i am starting to consider Mcgrady, reggie miller,howard, embiid
Ambrose
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,278
And1: 5,050
Joined: Jul 05, 2014

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #32 

Post#5 » by Ambrose » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:02 pm

Hoping Luka makes this list. He should.
hardenASG13 wrote:They are better than the teammates of SGA, Giannis, Luka, Brunson, Curry etc. so far.
~Regarding Denver Nuggets, May 2025
falcolombardi
General Manager
Posts: 9,286
And1: 6,896
Joined: Apr 13, 2021
       

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #32 

Post#6 » by falcolombardi » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:19 pm

Ambrose wrote:Hoping Luka makes this list. He should.


To be completely honest i am feeling i would put peak jimmy butler over luka still. Maybe embiid too if it was not for injury concerns

And before butler i still would have ewing, pippen, reggie and karl ahead....and i wouldnt see unreasonable with players like mutombo or howard

There are older players i am not faniliarized enough with that may have arguments over doncic (barry, pettit, baylor) but i would leave those arguments to the morr knowledgeable posters than me

This is to say that while luka is amazing...i dont think he is a guaranteed top 40 peak yet. Although i wouldnt disagree at all if he was picked
falcolombardi
General Manager
Posts: 9,286
And1: 6,896
Joined: Apr 13, 2021
       

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #32 

Post#7 » by falcolombardi » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:25 pm

How does the board feel about 2022 jimmy butler as a contender for top 40?
User avatar
Proxy
Sophomore
Posts: 237
And1: 192
Joined: Jun 30, 2021
       

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #32 

Post#8 » by Proxy » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:36 pm

falcolombardi wrote:How does the board feel about 2022 jimmy butler as a contender for top 40?


2022? Not really sure.

His RS wasn't really all that(I don't weigh it too much if the PS stuff seems like a trend), the PS run was impressive but I i'm not sure i'm high enough on his offense to vote him in, he was scoring incredibly well in the PS(understatement rly lol), while doing all his other stuff, especially defensively(rly one of the best non-big defenders in the league), but I not once got the impression that he was getting defensive attention like a player with his statistical profile normally would and the Heat offense loooked pretty unimpressive to me on film. His shooting also felt extremely flukey(also still gets very low respect as one anyways, and he kinda tweaked his form for the hundredth time), but otoh the Heat offense statistically seemed mostly fine with him on apparently and the advantage creation on that team was pretty poor with Lowry injured. Hard to say, i'd feel more comfortable if the list extended to 50 ish. I prefer Tatum over Jimmy right now anyways as well(much prefer his offense and I don't think he was that far behind defensively in the playoffs if at all) and he hasn't been talked about.
AEnigma wrote:Arf arf.
Image

trex_8063 wrote:Calling someone a stinky turd is not acceptable.
PLEASE stop doing that.

One_and_Done wrote:I mean, how would you feel if the NBA traced it's origins to an 1821 league of 3 foot dwarves who performed in circuses?
Stan
Veteran
Posts: 2,558
And1: 3,849
Joined: Oct 11, 2019

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #32 

Post#9 » by Stan » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:40 pm

falcolombardi wrote:
Ambrose wrote:Hoping Luka makes this list. He should.


To be completely honest i am feeling i would put peak jimmy butler over luka still. Maybe embiid too if it was not for injury concerns

And before butler i still would have ewing, pippen, reggie and karl ahead....and i wouldnt see unreasonable with players like mutombo or howard

There are older players i am not faniliarized enough with that may have arguments over doncic (barry, pettit, baylor) but i would leave those arguments to the morr knowledgeable posters than me

This is to say that while luka is amazing...i dont think he is a guaranteed top 40 peak yet. Although i wouldnt disagree at all if he was picked

Reggie & Dikembe better peaks than Luka? What :lol:
falcolombardi
General Manager
Posts: 9,286
And1: 6,896
Joined: Apr 13, 2021
       

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #32 

Post#10 » by falcolombardi » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:04 pm

Stan wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:
Ambrose wrote:Hoping Luka makes this list. He should.


To be completely honest i am feeling i would put peak jimmy butler over luka still. Maybe embiid too if it was not for injury concerns

And before butler i still would have ewing, pippen, reggie and karl ahead....and i wouldnt see unreasonable with players like mutombo or howard

There are older players i am not faniliarized enough with that may have arguments over doncic (barry, pettit, baylor) but i would leave those arguments to the morr knowledgeable posters than me

This is to say that while luka is amazing...i dont think he is a guaranteed top 40 peak yet. Although i wouldnt disagree at all if he was picked

Reggie & Dikembe better peaks than Luka? What :lol:


I am at least considering it heavily tbh. Reggie and mutombo were really great
Samurai
General Manager
Posts: 8,895
And1: 3,112
Joined: Jul 01, 2014
     

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #32 

Post#11 » by Samurai » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:53 pm

1. Bob Pettit 1959. (alternate 58, 62) I have Pettit as very close to Mikan so I suppose it makes sense for me to list him just after Mikan. In terms of how he did against his peers, I think a good argument could be made that 59 Pettit could have been a top ten season. Obviously we also have to look at the context of his season and the quality of his competition and figure out how much to penalize him for the era he played in. He was MVP in a league that had Bill Russell averaging 23 boards/game, a rookie Elgin Baylor averaging 25 pts and 15 rebounds/game, and Hall of Famers like Schayes, Arizin, Hagan, Cousy and Twyman in their primes. Pettit led the league with 29.4 pts/game, a 28.2 PER and 14.8 WS while finishing second in rebounds with 16.4/game.

2. Tracy McGrady 2003. Sure, its an outlier season for him but for this project that is irrelevant. For that one year, he put together his best shooting season with one of his better assist seasons. Also had his best season at drawing fouls and by far his best season ever in WS, WS/48, OBPM and PER.

3. Artis Gilmore 1975. Tremendous all-around season for a player who is often underrated. Averaged 23.6 pts/game while finishing second (behind Dr. J) in OWS. Second in offensive rebounds behind a rookie named Moses Malone. Led the league in DWS, total rebounds, total blocks, and defensive rating. Named first team All ABA, All-defensive first team, and MVP of the playoffs as he captured the only ring in his career.
trelos6
Senior
Posts: 506
And1: 204
Joined: Jun 17, 2022
Location: Sydney

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #32 

Post#12 » by trelos6 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:42 pm

It’s getting close now and hard to rank players, so I decided to look at all the candidates.

pp75 rTS% O-PIPM D-PIPM Load Team Ortg Team Drtg
Patrick Ewing 89-90 27.2 6.2 3.1 2.6 39 13th (1.3) 13th
Reggie Miller 93-94 23 10.8 3.8 -0.2 35.4 11th (1.5) 8th
Scottie Pippen 95-96 20.9 0.9 3.3 1.7 41.5 1st (7.5) 1st
Grant Hill 96-97 23.2 2 3.5 1.7 44.5 5th (3.9) 11th
Dwight Howard 10-11 24 7.5 4.1 2.3 34.3 14th (0.5) 3rd
Karl Malone 97-98 29.2 7.3 5.3 0.4 44.3 1st (7.6) 17th
Penny Hardaway 95-96 23.2 6.3 4.6 0.2 44.1 3rd (5.2) 12th
Tracy mcgrady 02-03 31.5 4.5 6.3 -1.3 53.8 10th (1.6) 20th
Draymond Green 15-16 14.6 4.6 5.2 4.6 34.3 1st (8.1) 5th

Aside from terrible formatting (don’t know how to make a table), it’s clear that I need to rethink T-Mac.

I’d probably lean Draymond Green 2015-16 right now as my 32.

Following that, Karl Malone 97-98 seems like the choice. The team moved to focus on Malone and the results showed, with the Jazz offense really humming (as opposed to earlier Stockton centric offenses).

So my order is as follows:

32. Draymond Green 15-16
33. Karl Malone 97-98
34. T-Mac 02-03
35. Penny Hardaway 95-96
36. Scottie Pippen 95-96
37. Grant Hill 96-97
38. Patrick Ewing 89-90
39. Dwight Howard 10-11
40. Reggie Miller 93-94
No-more-rings
Head Coach
Posts: 7,101
And1: 3,910
Joined: Oct 04, 2018

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #32 

Post#13 » by No-more-rings » Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:58 pm

Ambrose wrote:Hoping Luka makes this list. He should.

I asked a while back whether he was deserving of top 40. At first glance it seems he probably should, but I think when you really look at it it’s not that hard to leave him off.

Looking at the names yet to get in.

Tmac
Ewing
Karl Malone
Pettit
Dwight
Westbrook
Embiid
Rick Barry?

I mean that brings us to 39 right there. I doubt I’d take Luka above any of those, but I think surely he at least deserves a look at this point. Aside from Ewing and Tmac, I don’t think anyone else is clearly better.
falcolombardi
General Manager
Posts: 9,286
And1: 6,896
Joined: Apr 13, 2021
       

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #32 

Post#14 » by falcolombardi » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:28 pm

No-more-rings wrote:
Ambrose wrote:Hoping Luka makes this list. He should.

I asked a while back whether he was deserving of top 40. At first glance it seems he probably should, but I think when you really look at it it’s not that hard to leave him off.

Looking at the names yet to get in.

Tmac
Ewing
Karl Malone
Pettit
Dwight
Westbrook
Embiid
Rick Barry?

I mean that brings us to 39 right there. I doubt I’d take Luka above any of those, but I think surely he at least deserves a look at this point. Aside from Ewing and Tmac, I don’t think anyone else is clearly better.


I can see luka over westbrook. Their impact profiles may be deceptively similar (not to confuse with styles of play), Huge volume/middling efficiency players with huge amounts of shot creation, ball dominant, high turnovers, mediocre defense

Both were able to raise their game in the playoffs. Luka in the last 3 years and westbrook in 2014 or 2016

I can see myself going with luka since he did it without a co-star to take some off the pressure off him of durant caliber (brunson heroics against utah notwhithstanding :D ) although on the other hand westbrook did his thinghs with less spacing to attack with

McGrady is someome i am watching footage on from 2003. He is a nice passer who makes the basic reads very well and some advanced ones too albeit not as often as a luka, lebron or kobe (although he takes less bad shots than bryant)

A very capable point forward but lacks luka guard level ballhandling fluidity which limits his options as a pick and roll ballhandler (cannot exploit advantages off the pnr as easily as luka and his cheatcode handles at 6'8) so he has to rely too much in isolation

Which is a issue because while he is not as likely to take double or triple teamed shots like kobe was (he is a more willing passer) he still settles for jumpers a tad too much (another issue with luka to be fair)

Basically where luka has a wider array of options to attack from as big ball handlers. From the post, off the dribble, off isolation...mcgrady has to rely a bit too much on isolation (straight line drives or jumpers in 1vs1) he moves forward and back whereas luka footwork and handle let him move in every spot of the floor as he explores the defense

McGrady is a 2 dimension ballhandler who moves on straight lines, luka can move in 3 dimensions with his more fluid footwork and tighter handle

This is not completely a disadvantage tho. This "simplicity" in his passing reads and attack options may comtributr to his excellent turnover profile compared to luka

Neither luka or mcgrady impress me defensively. K actually thought tmac lack of rim protection at his height and athletism was a bit of a dissapointment (makes me remember to not take lebron lr wade rim protection as perimeter players for granted just because they are long and athletic)

and he makes a moderately high amount of off ball mistakes (imo) but doesnt get exploited off the dribble as often as we saw of luka in the last playoffs either (granted. Is easier to exploit big players off the dribble in modern game thanks to spacing)

I can see McGrady, weatbrook and luka as comparable players at their best....but luka potential imo dwarfs their peaks. Who knows if he will reach it
falcolombardi
General Manager
Posts: 9,286
And1: 6,896
Joined: Apr 13, 2021
       

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #32 

Post#15 » by falcolombardi » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:44 pm

Proxy wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:How does the board feel about 2022 jimmy butler as a contender for top 40?


2022? Not really sure.

His RS wasn't really all that(I don't weigh it too much if the PS stuff seems like a trend), the PS run was impressive but I i'm not sure i'm high enough on his offense to vote him in, he was scoring incredibly well in the PS(understatement rly lol), while doing all his other stuff, especially defensively(rly one of the best non-big defenders in the league), but I not once got the impression that he was getting defensive attention like a player with his statistical profile normally would and the Heat offense loooked pretty unimpressive to me on film. His shooting also felt extremely flukey(also still gets very low respect as one anyways, and he kinda tweaked his form for the hundredth time), but otoh the Heat offense statistically seemed mostly fine with him on apparently and the advantage creation on that team was pretty poor with Lowry injured. Hard to say, i'd feel more comfortable if the list extended to 50 ish. I prefer Tatum over Jimmy right now anyways as well(much prefer his offense and I don't think he was that far behind defensively in the playoffs if at all) and he hasn't been talked about.


I care primarly about playoffs play and use regular season as further proof of the "legitness" of a player post season play (since playoffs peak is injerently a small and volatile sample size)

In the playoffs tatum was a deer caught in the headlights against warriors defense and even against bucks he was meh in most games (his game 6 made people overrate his series imo) butler instead took on celtics great defense and dominated there

Tatum may be more portable in the sense that he us a better junpshooter so if you only want them for 3 and D tatum is the better option....but as a focal star of a team butler has 2 runs (20 and 22, with a dud in the middle) that go well beyond anythingh tatum has showcased in the postseason
User avatar
AEnigma
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,047
And1: 5,850
Joined: Jul 24, 2022
 

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #32 

Post#16 » by AEnigma » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:30 am

falcolombardi wrote:
Proxy wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:How does the board feel about 2022 jimmy butler as a contender for top 40?

2022? Not really sure.

His RS wasn't really all that(I don't weigh it too much if the PS stuff seems like a trend), the PS run was impressive but I i'm not sure i'm high enough on his offense to vote him in, he was scoring incredibly well in the PS(understatement rly lol), while doing all his other stuff, especially defensively(rly one of the best non-big defenders in the league), but I not once got the impression that he was getting defensive attention like a player with his statistical profile normally would and the Heat offense loooked pretty unimpressive to me on film. His shooting also felt extremely flukey(also still gets very low respect as one anyways, and he kinda tweaked his form for the hundredth time), but otoh the Heat offense statistically seemed mostly fine with him on apparently and the advantage creation on that team was pretty poor with Lowry injured. Hard to say, i'd feel more comfortable if the list extended to 50 ish. I prefer Tatum over Jimmy right now anyways as well(much prefer his offense and I don't think he was that far behind defensively in the playoffs if at all) and he hasn't been talked about.

I care primarly about playoffs play and use regular season as further proof of the "legitness" of a player post season play (since playoffs peak is injerently a small and volatile sample size)

In the playoffs tatum was a deer caught in the headlights against warriors defense and even against bucks he was meh in most games (his game 6 made people overrate his series imo) butler instead took on celtics great defense and dominated there

Tatum may be more portable in the sense that he us a better junpshooter so if you only want them for 3 and D tatum is the better option....but as a focal star of a team butler has 2 runs (20 and 22, with a dud in the middle) that go well beyond anythingh tatum has showcased in the postseason

Kind-of on that note, the reason I was holding off on both Butler and Tatum was Paul George.

Following a similar logic you were using, I was higher on Luka because I think he could stack up moderately well against Penny in the postseason. Penny’s advantages are off-ball play — but as a weaker shooter, that is a a slighter advantage — and defence. Otherwise, Luka is clearly on another level of pure generation of offence.

Anyway, we if penalise for poor defence and complementary play, then I would turn more to Paul George than to Butler and Tatum. Butler is the best creator if that is what you need, but I do think he is somewhat more limited by a broken shot in those Miami years you are marking as his peak. 2019 George peaked at third in MVP voting and third in DPoY voting, and he led the league in on/off. His 2018-20 postseason performances tend to disappoint people, which is maybe a tad unfair for 2019 but is justified in 2020 and reasonable in 2018 when Joe Ingles did have a little too much success against him; however, he had an outstanding reputation prior to that, and his performance in 2021 after Kawhi went down goes a fair way toward showing that he did not simply forget how to elevate his game. And for what it is worth, even as a three-year sample capturing both good Miami runs, Butler trails both George and Luka in three-year postseason LEBRON.

Butler’s best argument is quality of competition. That 2020 run against the Bucks, Celtics, and Lakers is something none of the other three can claim. For me, that alone does not bring him into top forty contention, but it does make it easier to envision him succeeding in a 1975 Rick Barry scenario going up against a tough Bulls team and an even tougher Bullets team.
MyUniBroDavis wrote:Some people are clearly far too overreliant on data without context and look at good all in one or impact numbers and get wowed by that rather than looking at how a roster is actually built around a player
No-more-rings
Head Coach
Posts: 7,101
And1: 3,910
Joined: Oct 04, 2018

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #32 

Post#17 » by No-more-rings » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:37 am

falcolombardi wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:
Ambrose wrote:Hoping Luka makes this list. He should.

I asked a while back whether he was deserving of top 40. At first glance it seems he probably should, but I think when you really look at it it’s not that hard to leave him off.

Looking at the names yet to get in.

Tmac
Ewing
Karl Malone
Pettit
Dwight
Westbrook
Embiid
Rick Barry?

I mean that brings us to 39 right there. I doubt I’d take Luka above any of those, but I think surely he at least deserves a look at this point. Aside from Ewing and Tmac, I don’t think anyone else is clearly better.


I can see luka over westbrook. Their impact profiles may be deceptively similar (not to confuse with styles of play), Huge volume/middling efficiency players with huge amounts of shot creation, ball dominant, high turnovers, mediocre defense

Both were able to raise their game in the playoffs. Luka in the last 3 years and westbrook in 2014 or 2016

I can see myself going with luka since he did it without a co-star to take some off the pressure off him of durant caliber (brunson heroics against utah notwhithstanding :D ) although on the other hand westbrook did his thinghs with less spacing to attack with

McGrady is someome i am watching footage on from 2003. He is a nice passer who makes the basic reads very well and some advanced ones too albeit not as often as a luka, lebron or kobe (although he takes less bad shots than bryant)

A very capable point forward but lacks luka guard level ballhandling fluidity which limits his options as a pick and roll ballhandler (cannot exploit advantages off the pnr as easily as luka and his cheatcode handles at 6'8) so he has to rely too much in isolation

Which is a issue because while he is not as likely to take double or triple teamed shots like kobe was (he is a more willing passer) he still settles for jumpers a tad too much (another issue with luka to be fair)

Basically where luka has a wider array of options to attack from as big ball handlers. From the post, off the dribble, off isolation...mcgrady has to rely a bit too much on isolation (straight line drives or jumpers in 1vs1) he moves forward and back whereas luka footwork and handle let him move in every spot of the floor as he explores the defense

McGrady is a 2 dimension ballhandler who moves on straight lines, luka can move in 3 dimensions with his more fluid footwork and tighter handle

This is not completely a disadvantage tho. This "simplicity" in his passing reads and attack options may comtributr to his excellent turnover profile compared to luka

Neither luka or mcgrady impress me defensively. K actually thought tmac lack of rim protection at his height and athletism was a bit of a dissapointment (makes me remember to not take lebron lr wade rim protection as perimeter players for granted just because they are long and athletic)

and he makes a moderately high amount of off ball mistakes (imo) but doesnt get exploited off the dribble as often as we saw of luka in the last playoffs either (granted. Is easier to exploit big players off the dribble in modern game thanks to spacing)

I can see McGrady, weatbrook and luka as comparable players at their best....but luka potential imo dwarfs their peaks. Who knows if he will reach it

This is a short response, but for me it comes down to McGrady just being a better shooter and flat out superior scorer all around. Outlier or not, that season was a higher level of play than Luka i’m sure of it.

With Westbrook I just think his athleticism and relentlessness does something to a defense that Luka doesn’t quite. Westbrook also generally looks better in impact stats, and it’s fair to a degree to not put a lot of stock into their defense but Westbrook was better there for sure. If Luka manages to break the top 40, he’d be the clear worst defender of the group with the possible exception of Barkley. And yes Harden is more useful on d than Luka.
User avatar
AEnigma
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,047
And1: 5,850
Joined: Jul 24, 2022
 

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #32 

Post#18 » by AEnigma » Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:44 am

Will quickly add McGrady’s defence was undersold a little in that write-up. It was not amazing that year or anything, but his boxscore defensive numbers were still better than you would see from most players in that role (if not Wade or obviously Lebron), and I feel that his history before 2003 (i.e. without a historically high offensive load) evidences good to respectable defensive value, and that shows up in the 2005 postseason against Dirk too.
MyUniBroDavis wrote:Some people are clearly far too overreliant on data without context and look at good all in one or impact numbers and get wowed by that rather than looking at how a roster is actually built around a player
No-more-rings
Head Coach
Posts: 7,101
And1: 3,910
Joined: Oct 04, 2018

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #32 

Post#19 » by No-more-rings » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:05 am

AEnigma wrote:Will quickly add McGrady’s defence was undersold a little in that write-up. It was not amazing that year or anything, but his boxscore defensive numbers were still better than you would see from most players in that role (if not Wade or obviously Lebron), and I feel that his history before 2003 (i.e. without a historically high offensive load) evidences good to respectable defensive value, and that shows up in the 2005 postseason against Dirk too.

Sure, I mean I haven’t looked really closely at his D especially not 2003 but he never striked me as someone who was a negative.

To further respond it’s a bit of a weird point to expect him to be a “rim protector”, he was a 6’8 guy who played much like a guard. He was vastly more athletic than Luka, which allowed him to hold his own in more scenarios.

Luka is an interesting case though, much like Westbrook there’s certainly a lot of value in being able to put up big numbers and hit shots in the clutch. Luka is definitely clutch for whatever that’s worth and doesn’t seem bothered by tough defenses. Westbrook had that too, but his downfall was more of him trying to do too much at times and failing to realize KD was a better scorer than him. We have no clue how Luka does with another superstar. He’d still have a lot of impact, but I doubt his stat sheet is going to look the same.
User avatar
Proxy
Sophomore
Posts: 237
And1: 192
Joined: Jun 30, 2021
       

Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #32 

Post#20 » by Proxy » Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:36 am

falcolombardi wrote:In the playoffs tatum was a deer caught in the headlights against warriors defense and even against bucks he was meh in most games (his game 6 made people overrate his series imo) butler instead took on celtics great defense and dominated there


Saying Jimmy dominated that series overall despite his performances games 3-5 is a massive reach, that series was also not really all that close either(in the Celtics favor) despite going to 7. Tatum was better than him in that series overall going up against a fine Heat defense.

Yes I could agree on Tatum being somewhat underwhelming against the Bucks and Warriors(he was also playing injured in the Warriors series and Smart was in the Bucks series, and was still certainly the best Celtics player in both fwiw), but Jimmy also did not play either team that year and if he was getting similar attention in that situation I don't really see why he'd have performed all that well either. (20 Jimmy did have pretty strong PS competition though) I would say my biggest problem with Tatum right now preventing me from placing him in the upper echelon of players in the league rn is balancing his scoring and passing abilities together and he struggled with that in the finals iirc.

I don't agree that either of these runs really went that far "well beyond" anything JT showed in the playoffs but i'm fine with the conclusion they were better ig. Also I don't even know if I would agree Tatum is more portable than Jimmy despite the shooting(I think Jimmy is still a much better off ball player and better passer whilr JT has some chucking tendencies), but i'd need to think on that one.

Anyways, like Enigma mentioned his name, i'd rather have 2019 PG over either of these two and I doubt he gets in top 40 so I don't think this matters that much for now. 2022 Jimmy as the best creator though? Not sure on that one, i'll give him the best passing out of the bunch, but that definitely wasn't the impression I got these playoffs when comparing him to Tatum.
AEnigma wrote:Arf arf.
Image

trex_8063 wrote:Calling someone a stinky turd is not acceptable.
PLEASE stop doing that.

One_and_Done wrote:I mean, how would you feel if the NBA traced it's origins to an 1821 league of 3 foot dwarves who performed in circuses?

Return to Player Comparisons