People who don't have 02/03 Duncan as a GOAT peak: What metric(s) would make you change your mind?

OhayoKD · Post #1 » by **OhayoKD** » Thu Oct 13, 2022 10:30 pm

To be clear, I'm not discussing potential alternate histories, but data/evidence/argumentation for Duncan's career as it was.

He won 58 and 60 games in back to back regular seasons with what people seem to agree were limited casts and led one of a handful of title teams(throughout history) with one superstar. He also scored #1 in Ben's 3 year BPM and #2 in Ben's 3 year +/-.

What's missing for it to be considered the best stretch ever?

AEnigma · Post #2 » by **AEnigma** » Thu Oct 13, 2022 10:56 pm

I will focus more on it as a peak relative to other bigs.

It would be nice to have comparable postseason data for older players: Hakeem, Kareem, Walton, Wilt, Russell... If Duncan were blowing them away on that front, it would make his case all the stronger.

For Duncan specifically? Hm, if there were a better comparative measure of “block quality” that could help. I know there has been work praising him on that front, but I mean more completely. Could help him to have a better measure of what his scoring was worth to his team based on defensive coverages faced, which is pretty abstract but might be nice by comparison with how older players or even contemporaries were treated. A more consistent measure of his passing value that closed the perceived gap with Garnett might give him a boost. A better quantification of “defensive intelligence” via play recognition or closeness to “ideal” responsiveness also is something I could see reflecting well on him.

Basically, any clearer assessment of his offence or defence which places him higher than current perception or comparatively advantages him over other peak big men. I have him as a top ~5 big peak, but assessment between those bigs is difficult because of disparate eras and available data. Kareem and Walton arguably peaked in the same season and even then we still struggle to measure them against each other!

falcolombardi · Post #3 » by **falcolombardi** » Thu Oct 13, 2022 10:58 pm

OhayoKD wrote:To be clear, I'm not discussing potential alternate histories, but data/evidence/argumentation for Duncan's career as it was.

He won 58 and 60 games in back to back regular seasons with what people seem to agree were limited casts and led one of a handful of title teams(throughout history) with one superstar. He also scored #1 in Ben's 3 year BPM and #2 in Ben's 3 year +/-.

What's missing for it to be considered the best stretch ever?

None

Because by impact metrics available duncan is a goat level peak

Any argument against him needs to be non-impact data related

No-more-rings · Post #4 » by **No-more-rings** » Thu Oct 13, 2022 11:35 pm

Well as far as floor raising type championship runs he’s definitely up there with anyone I think. I do put a lot of stock into that, and his metrics are already top notch so…i don’t know. I can’t see myself quite going there with him, I have questions about how well his offense stacks up when it comes to a slew of other candidates. I’m not big on the whole “ceiling raising” label, but I have a hard time seeing him leading some teams as great as someone like Jordan or Lebron has. His offense was really useful in the role he was in, but it seems like there’s a limit to what you can do with him as far as building a great offense. On defense, I don’t think he has quite the same impact today where players are shooting a lot more 3s for example. Yeah his raw impact is probably goat level, but I don’t think he can display that in as many scenarios as others.

OhayoKD · Post #5 » by **OhayoKD** » Thu Oct 13, 2022 11:54 pm

No-more-rings wrote:Well as far as floor raising type championship runs he’s definitely up there with anyone I think. I do put a lot of stock into that, and his metrics are already top notch so…i don’t know. I can’t see myself quite going there with him, I have questions about how well his offense stacks up when it comes to a slew of other candidates. I’m not big on the whole “ceiling raising” label, but I have a hard time seeing him leading some teams as great as someone like Jordan or Lebron has. His offense was really useful in the role he was in, but it seems like there’s a limit to what you can do with him as far as building a great offense. On defense, I don’t think he has quite the same impact today where players are shooting a lot more 3s for example. Yeah his raw impact is probably goat level, but I don’t think he can display that in as many scenarios as others.

do we have evidence of diminishing returns/underperformance with duncan alongside co-stars?

No-more-rings · Post #6 » by **No-more-rings** » Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:01 am

OhayoKD wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:Well as far as floor raising type championship runs he’s definitely up there with anyone I think. I do put a lot of stock into that, and his metrics are already top notch so…i don’t know. I can’t see myself quite going there with him, I have questions about how well his offense stacks up when it comes to a slew of other candidates. I’m not big on the whole “ceiling raising” label, but I have a hard time seeing him leading some teams as great as someone like Jordan or Lebron has. His offense was really useful in the role he was in, but it seems like there’s a limit to what you can do with him as far as building a great offense. On defense, I don’t think he has quite the same impact today where players are shooting a lot more 3s for example. Yeah his raw impact is probably goat level, but I don’t think he can display that in as many scenarios as others.

do we have evidence of diminishing returns/underperformance with duncan alongside co-stars?

Well I don’t know if I’d phrase it quite that way. But Duncan was presumably not much past his peak from 05-07, and those teams don’t seem considerably more formidable than 2003. I mean they were great for sure, but I don’t think they exactly reeled out something during that time that blew people away or anything.

If we’re talking the very best peak ever, I feel we probably should’ve seen a more dominant Spurs team than we really did.

LukaTheGOAT · Post #7 » by **LukaTheGOAT** » Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:37 am

If the season consistently ranked #1 of all-time in stuff in like:

PIPM
TWPR
RAPM
AuPM/G

while carrying that impact into the PS, I think that would more than likely make me 2nd guess myself and if I am evaluating him properly. So basically #1 in the alphabet soup part of basketball.

Also, if you could provide evidence that he was notably better defender than Hakeem was relative to era, would be another avenue, but the only other person in history that would be true for is Bill Russell.

Also this is probably not fair but I wonder if subconsciously I and others would be higher if he sustained his 02 and 03 season dominance for a bit longer. So kind of how Jordan has 88-91 (some might say until 93) that could help.

prolific passer · Post #8 » by **prolific passer** » Fri Oct 14, 2022 3:15 am

Duncan had a great finals that year but the numbers he put up before those finals in the regular season and playoffs seem pretty forgettable. Duncan was just a steady force throughout his career.

LukaTheGOAT · Post #9 » by **LukaTheGOAT** » Fri Oct 14, 2022 5:50 am

prolific passer wrote:Duncan had a great finals that year but the numbers he put up before those finals in the regular season and playoffs seem pretty forgettable. Duncan was just a steady force throughout his career.

I mean perhaps it is subjective what are great stats, but you don't believe these are particularly impressive?

Peak Tim Duncan:
RS:
25.6 IA PPG/75
13.1 RPG/75
4 APG/75
3 BPG/75
51/27/71 Splits
51.5% EFG% (+4.1rEFG)
56.4% TS% (+4.5 rTS)

Spurs were a -3.9 DRtg
▫️1st Seed in the West (60-22)

PS:
24.9 IA PPG/75
14.3 RPG/75
4.9 APG/75
3.1 BPG/75
53/68 Splits
52.9% EFG% (+5.9 rEFG)
57.7% TS% (+6.2 rTS)

Also, I probably would argue his 2nd and 3rd round performances in 03 probably had better numbers than his Finals performance but I guess that is subjective.

OhayoKD · Post #10 » by **OhayoKD** » Sat Oct 15, 2022 5:42 am

LukaTheGOAT wrote:
prolific passer wrote:Duncan had a great finals that year but the numbers he put up before those finals in the regular season and playoffs seem pretty forgettable. Duncan was just a steady force throughout his career.

I mean perhaps it is subjective what are great stats, but you don't believe these are particularly impressive?

Peak Tim Duncan:
RS:
25.6 IA PPG/75
13.1 RPG/75
4 APG/75
3 BPG/75
51/27/71 Splits
51.5% EFG% (+4.1rEFG)
56.4% TS% (+4.5 rTS)

Spurs were a -3.9 DRtg
▫️1st Seed in the West (60-22)

PS:
24.9 IA PPG/75
14.3 RPG/75
4.9 APG/75
3.1 BPG/75
53/68 Splits
52.9% EFG% (+5.9 rEFG)
57.7% TS% (+6.2 rTS)

Also, I probably would argue his 2nd and 3rd round performances in 03 probably had better numbers than his Finals performance but I guess that is subjective.

Box-stat watching has really gone too far lol. A two-way big whose presumably hard-carrying a defense doesn't need to be dropping 35 ppg to be having an atg series

70sFan · Post #11 » by **70sFan** » Sat Oct 15, 2022 8:23 am

To have him as a clear GOAT, I'd have to see the evidences that he's clearly better defensively than his counterpartners (KG, Hakeem). I have finished my work on Duncan (so little time recently), so I have not taken a clear statement on that matter yet.

I am also a bit unsure about his scoring ability against elite defenses. He was consistently good, but I don't think he had the same gear that mid-90s Hakeem had for example. He didn't need that to be ranked ahead of Olajuwon due to the other advantages, but to be the GOAT peak - it would certainly help.

Again, I need to dive into peak Duncan games with more regularity (like I did with Hakeem/Shaq/Wilt/Kareem/Moses).

euroleague · Post #12 » by **euroleague** » Sat Oct 15, 2022 9:14 am

falcolombardi wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:To be clear, I'm not discussing potential alternate histories, but data/evidence/argumentation for Duncan's career as it was.

He won 58 and 60 games in back to back regular seasons with what people seem to agree were limited casts and led one of a handful of title teams(throughout history) with one superstar. He also scored #1 in Ben's 3 year BPM and #2 in Ben's 3 year +/-.

What's missing for it to be considered the best stretch ever?

None

Because by impact metrics available duncan is a goat level peak

Any argument against him needs to be non-impact data related

What metrics exactly? By RAPM he wasn't even the best player on his own team - Manu pretty frequently beats him out.

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/season/2002-03/playoffs/

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/season/2004-05/playoffs/

The "Duncan is overrated" idea using impact metrics certainly have a case.

70sFan · Post #13 » by **70sFan** » Sat Oct 15, 2022 9:37 am

euroleague wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:To be clear, I'm not discussing potential alternate histories, but data/evidence/argumentation for Duncan's career as it was.

He won 58 and 60 games in back to back regular seasons with what people seem to agree were limited casts and led one of a handful of title teams(throughout history) with one superstar. He also scored #1 in Ben's 3 year BPM and #2 in Ben's 3 year +/-.

What's missing for it to be considered the best stretch ever?

None

Because by impact metrics available duncan is a goat level peak

Any argument against him needs to be non-impact data related

What metrics exactly? By RAPM he wasn't even the best player on his own team - Manu pretty frequently beats him out.

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/season/2002-03/playoffs/

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/season/2004-05/playoffs/

The "Duncan is overrated" idea using impact metrics certainly have a case.

By RAPM, Duncan is the second best player during 1997-2014 period, only behind LeBron:

https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/97-14-rapm-2

If you want to go by ranking year after year, here is how he stacks up:

2001: 1st in NPI RAPM
2002: 3rd in RAPM (Shaq, Christie), 2nd in NPI RAPM (Shaq)
2003: 4th in RAPM (Garnett, Christie, Shaq), 1st in NPI RAPM
2004: 3rd in RAPM (Garnett, Shaq), 3rd in NPI RAPM (Shaq, Turkoglu)
2005: 2nd in RAPM (Manu), 2nd in NPI RAPM (Manu)
2006: 2nd in RAPM (Wade)
2007: 1st in RAPM

The "Duncan is overrated" idea using impact metrics certainly has no case. If we exclude roleplayers (Christie, Turkoglu), then Duncan finishes top 3 in RAPM in all years from 2001 to 2007. In most cases, he's actually top 2.

euroleague · Post #14 » by **euroleague** » Sat Oct 15, 2022 9:50 am

70sFan wrote:By RAPM, Duncan is the second best player during 1997-2014 period, only behind LeBron:

https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/97-14-rapm-2

If you want to go by ranking year after year, here is how he stacks up:

2001: 1st in NPI RAPM
2002: 3rd in RAPM (Shaq, Christie), 2nd in NPI RAPM (Shaq)
2003: 4th in RAPM (Garnett, Christie, Shaq), 1st in NPI RAPM
2004: 3rd in RAPM (Garnett, Shaq), 3rd in NPI RAPM (Shaq, Turkoglu)
2005: 2nd in RAPM (Manu), 2nd in NPI RAPM (Manu)
2006: 2nd in RAPM (Wade)
2007: 1st in RAPM

The "Duncan is overrated" idea using impact metrics certainly has no case. If we exclude roleplayers (Christie, Turkoglu), then Duncan finishes top 3 in RAPM in all years from 2001 to 2007. In most cases, he's actually top 2.

I definitely agree that he has longevity. But, for single-season peak (which is what we are discussing) the numbers don't support a GOAT level peak.

Notice how during his peak, he is consistently behind Shaq and KG? Although RAPM doesn't have data before 02, we can see a few high level peaks and the numbers they put up in the regular season.

04 KG 8.6
08 KG 8.1
07 Duncan 8.8
09 LBJ 9.3

This data doesn't support 03 Duncan behind GOAT level. 07 Duncan clearly wasn't goat level, although his regular season impact stats were according to that site.

For the record, would be nice if we could get the data and methods they used for these stats. i get different numbers from different sources.

CharityStripe34 · Post #15 » by **CharityStripe34** » Sat Oct 15, 2022 10:06 am

It was one of the great peaks of all time because I just remember how awesome he was during those years, but during that Finals run specifically.

70sFan · Post #16 » by **70sFan** » Sat Oct 15, 2022 12:05 pm

euroleague wrote:I definitely agree that he has longevity. But, for single-season peak (which is what we are discussing) the numbers don't support a GOAT level peak.

He's consistently top 3 player in the league, despite carrying significantly bigger role on both ends of the floor than other contemporaries.

Notice how during his peak, he is consistently behind Shaq and KG?

That's not true, he finished ahead of Shaq in 2001 in NPI RAPM, ahead of Garnett in 2002 in both, ahead of both in 2003 (NPI RAPM), ahead of both in 2005-07. It seems that you only look at what you want to see.

Although RAPM doesn't have data before 02, we can see a few high level peaks and the numbers they put up in the regular season.

04 KG 8.6
08 KG 8.1
07 Duncan 8.8
09 LBJ 9.3

RAPM can't be compared in raw values across different seasons.

This data doesn't support 03 Duncan behind GOAT level. 07 Duncan clearly wasn't goat level, although his regular season impact stats were according to that site.

Why isn't he GOAT level? Not enough ppg?

OhayoKD · Post #17 » by **OhayoKD** » Sat Oct 15, 2022 2:02 pm

euroleague wrote:
70sFan wrote:By RAPM, Duncan is the second best player during 1997-2014 period, only behind LeBron:

https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/97-14-rapm-2

If you want to go by ranking year after year, here is how he stacks up:

2001: 1st in NPI RAPM
2002: 3rd in RAPM (Shaq, Christie), 2nd in NPI RAPM (Shaq)
2003: 4th in RAPM (Garnett, Christie, Shaq), 1st in NPI RAPM
2004: 3rd in RAPM (Garnett, Shaq), 3rd in NPI RAPM (Shaq, Turkoglu)
2005: 2nd in RAPM (Manu), 2nd in NPI RAPM (Manu)
2006: 2nd in RAPM (Wade)
2007: 1st in RAPM

The "Duncan is overrated" idea using impact metrics certainly has no case. If we exclude roleplayers (Christie, Turkoglu), then Duncan finishes top 3 in RAPM in all years from 2001 to 2007. In most cases, he's actually top 2.

I definitely agree that he has longevity. But, for single-season peak (which is what we are discussing) the numbers don't support a GOAT level peak.

Notice how during his peak, he is consistently behind Shaq and KG? Although RAPM doesn't have data before 02, we can see a few high level peaks and the numbers they put up in the regular season.

04 KG 8.6
08 KG 8.1
07 Duncan 8.8
09 LBJ 9.3

This data doesn't support 03 Duncan behind GOAT level. 07 Duncan clearly wasn't goat level, although his regular season impact stats were according to that site.

For the record, would be nice if we could get the data and methods they used for these stats. i get different numbers from different sources.

So 07 Duncan posts the second highest single season score of the era(as well as a score higher than any of the rapm stuff we have for players during the 80's and 90's?)

That doesn't seem too bad.

70sFan · Post #18 » by **70sFan** » Sat Oct 15, 2022 8:16 pm

I said it before and will say it again - 2007 Duncan is a top 10 peak ever candidate, but isn't talked enough simply because he had even better seasons in 2002 and 2003.

Cavsfansince84 · Post #19 » by **Cavsfansince84** » Sat Oct 15, 2022 9:49 pm

The only possible criticism I could see of 03 Duncan is that he wouldn't scale as well in a faster paced league/team. Which might be worth debating but I see it as a top 5 peak.

Post #20 » by **NO-KG-AI** » Mon Oct 17, 2022 9:30 am

It's hard for me to shake the feeling that Hakeem is better on offense and defense, and while I think Hakeem is matched by few, I also don't think he is the GOAT peak. Didn't think Duncan was better than Shaq was just a few seasons earlier either. Those direct comparisons probably would always be enough to keep it tempered down for me.