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Led the Mavs to the WCF
Can they do it again?

37 pts on 30 shots yikes

Win a close game already

LukaTheGOAT wrote:

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Interesting guard rankings, what about the other players?

Jaivl wrote:

LukaTheGOAT wrote:

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Interesting guard rankings, what about the other players?

This is for all players. I don't know why people like Giannis, etc. are so low but yeah...

Triple double 41 PTS Vs Nets

Those behind-the-back passes in OT against the Nets were quite slick. Monster game by Luka. Still strange seeing a Jason Kidd team shoot so many threes.

At this point, I'm wondering if we merge the Gianni/Jokic/Doncic threads into a "Three-Headed European Monster" thread, lol.

CharityStripe34 wrote: Still strange seeing a Jason Kidd team shoot so many threes.

When he talks, he has been pretty open that he wasn't a good coach for the Nets or Bucks. That he was too stubborn and didn't listen enough. He has a lot of praise for Vogel helping him to see that its okay as the head coach to take more input.

So I'm guessing that means he's more open to analytics now? And when he played in Dallas the 2nd time he saw a similar idea offensively even though Dirk and Luka are wildly different players. But get a superstar, put a rim runner on the court, and then every else is there to defend/space. And this Mavs roster has a lot of one dimensional offensive players who are pretty much catch and shoot guys(Bullock, DFS, Kleber, THJ can do a bit more, but you don't really want him, Ntilikina) so Luka PNR/spam 3's is a pretty obvious strategy for any coach.

Texas Chuck wrote: -

Why isn't wood starting yet?

Clyde Frazier wrote:

Texas Chuck wrote: -

Why isn't wood starting yet?

I'm going to assume defense. Maxi has been closing these games at center which means Kidd clearly doesn't trust Wood defensively. Because he's an even better spacer than Kleber and offers an iso game so everything isn't Luka, Luka, Luka.

He's been exactly as advertised. Dude is an offensive talent, but defensively he's just not there right now. If Sweeney can make him as playable as he made Dwight Powell last year at that end, then Dallas can live with that I think, though Powell got totally washed out of the rotation in the playoffs.

Dallas problem at center is they have the big rim runner who rebounds well and provides some rim protection in McGee, but he's pretty limited. They have the offensive guy in Wood who doesn't defend well, and then Maxi who is limited offensively and loses confidence in his shot at times. And of course Powell whose planted on the bench.

It's better than last year, but still a weakness. Coaching Wood up is the hope. Or maybe the real hope is Indy realizes they can't get much value for Turner at this point and they don't want to give him his next contract and Dallas can poach him.

Clyde Frazier wrote:

Texas Chuck wrote: -

Why isn't wood starting yet?

Wood closed last night. Dallas blew a 16 point lead in 4 minutes. After the game nobody asked Kidd about this, so he made sure to bring it up. Said Wood closed and we were terrible at both ends. Nobody asked but I wanted you to know.

Yikes. Sounds like Kidd is not a fan.

I want to be clear I'm not blaming Wood for this. Luka was bad, and admitted as much after the game. But Kidd wanted to make that specific point.

Luka was actually 8/17 inside the arc and drew 19 FTAs. Yeah, he fouled out and yeah, because he was 0/6 from 3, he ended up shooting only 8/23 from the field and that's not a good overall performance, and even if he'd shot 2/6 from 3, that's +3% TS and is still only around 52.5% because he shot "only" a shade under 79% from the line. But yeah he could have been more valuable in the 4th and OT.

Dunno how much slightly-improved O from Luka was gonna help them overcome getting absolutely shredded by SGA, though. The Mavs lost this in the third quarter more than anywhere else, and Luka was 4/8 from the field for 10 points during that quarter, matched off by SGA's 11. No one else really stepped up. There just isn't a lot of offensive talent on Dallas right now, Luka notwithstanding, so if he isn't really clicking, it's often done before it starts because they aren't exactly stunning folks with their D at the moment.

I am starting to wonder if Luka is really that good in terms of on court impact.
Is his extreme usage style really as effective as we all seem to think?
His on/off has always been mediocre. I know the stat is super noisy, but this is happening every season and all the really elite tier 1 players excel at that, historically.

To be clear, this is about him being conaodered a top3 player in the league or so, no doubt his a top10 guy.

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Ryoga Hibiki wrote:I am starting to wonder if Luka is really that good in terms of on court impact.
Is his extreme usage style really as effective as we all seem to think?
His on/off has always been mediocre. I know the stat is super noisy, but this is happening every season and all the really elite tier 1 players excel at that, historically.

To be clear, this is about him being conaodered a top3 player in the league or so, no doubt his a top10 guy.

Well, we know his efficiency isn't there with the top scorers in the league because he leaves so many points at the foul line and because he's more James Harden/Damian Lillard than Steph as far as a high-volume 3pt bomb artist. Dallas has shot especially well with Luka on the bench this year over a short sample, so it's no surprise that his on/off isn't looking sexy early on. He was what, a +4.4 team ORTG guy last year? Lebron was +4.8. Harden was +10.0. Trae Young was +8.3. Giannis was +7.3. Jokic was +10.0. As you say, a noisy stat, but there is some element of stratification visible. So we can add some other stuff in.

Doncic was 11th in the league in oEPM last year (dunksandthrees.com). He was 3rd in ESPN's flavor of RAPM. o-RAPTOR loves him, he's #1 at +13.0.

So there's a pile of different stuff to look at, and some of it likes him, and some of it doesn't. The on/off stuff is something to consider, but there's plenty of data indicating that he's exerting palpable and meaningful offensive impact. It's very clear watching them that the Mavs need a second offensive star very, very badly, though.

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:I am starting to wonder if Luka is really that good in terms of on court impact.
Is his extreme usage style really as effective as we all seem to think?
His on/off has always been mediocre. I know the stat is super noisy, but this is happening every season and all the really elite tier 1 players excel at that, historically.

To be clear, this is about him being conaodered a top3 player in the league or so, no doubt his a top10 guy.[/i]

This might not be outright wrong, and to an extent I agree when talking about Luka as a potential top three player, but as an exercise, I am going to try something.

Player 1: +4.7 on, -0.1 on/off, 1 conference finals, 1 all-NBA
Player 2a: +3.3 on, -0.6 on/off
Player 2b: +4.5 on, -4.3 on/off, 1 conference finals, 2 all-NBA
Player 3: +4.1 on, +1.2 on/off, 1 conference finals, 3 all-NBA

You can probably figure out Luka, but as for the other two:

Notice how Player 2b seems to be “worse” than Player 2a. Does that match your assessment of him? The very next year after the sample I used for Player 1, he posted a +7.3 on/off. A fluke, perhaps, but then a few years after that, on a new team, he posts a +9.2 on/off sample over two seasons. And Player 2 posted the first positive on/off of his career upon joining his third team a few years after the samples I gave.

On/off and RAPM have strong correlation to “real” value and are rightly respected as approximations of “real” value, but in smaller samples it is still excessively dependent on potentially noisy lineup data outside that player’s control.

For me, the biggest difference Luka has over those other two? I know I can trust him to carry his team in the playoffs, when lineups tighten up, the roleplayers and deep benches can no longer be relied upon to push you forward, and you are going up against the best teams in the league. Top three specifically is a high bar — immediately tough to see how he has earned more trust than Steph or Giannis just to start — but I am not sure there are five guys I would rather have than him when elimination is on the line.

Texas Chuck wrote:

Clyde Frazier wrote:

Texas Chuck wrote: -

Why isn't wood starting yet?

Wood closed last night. Dallas blew a 16 point lead in 4 minutes. After the game nobody asked Kidd about this, so he made sure to bring it up. Said Wood closed and we were terrible at both ends. Nobody asked but I wanted you to know.

Yikes. Sounds like Kidd is not a fan.

I want to be clear I'm not blaming Wood for this. Luka was bad, and admitted as much after the game. But Kidd wanted to make that specific point.

Yeah I saw the quote... That's pretty damning and defensive of kidd. I get coaches don't like taking the same questions when reporters harp on an issue, but can't exactly see that instilling confidence in wood. I guess they're stilling figuring out who can contribute best as Luka tries to carry them.

AEnigma wrote:

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:I am starting to wonder if Luka is really that good in terms of on court impact.
Is his extreme usage style really as effective as we all seem to think?
His on/off has always been mediocre. I know the stat is super noisy, but this is happening every season and all the really elite tier 1 players excel at that, historically.

To be clear, this is about him being conaodered a top3 player in the league or so, no doubt his a top10 guy.[/i]

This might not be outright wrong, and to an extent I agree when talking about Luka as a potential top three player, but as an exercise, I am going to try something.

Player 1: +4.7 on, -0.1 on/off, 1 conference finals, 1 all-NBA
Player 2a: +3.3 on, -0.6 on/off
Player 2b: +4.5 on, -4.3 on/off, 1 conference finals, 2 all-NBA
Player 3: +4.1 on, +1.2 on/off, 1 conference finals, 3 all-NBA

You can probably figure out Luka, but as for the other two:

Spoiler:

Player 1 is 2007-09 Deron Williams, Player 2a is 2014-15 Demar Derozan, and player 2b is 2016-18 Demar Derozan.

Notice how Player 2b seems to be “worse” than Player 2a. Does that match your assessment of him? The very next year after the sample I used for Player 1, he posted a +7.3 on/off. A fluke, perhaps, but then a few years after that, on a new team, he posts a +9.2 on/off sample over two seasons. And Player 2 posted the first positive on/off of his career upon joining his third team a few years after the samples I gave.

On/off and RAPM have strong correlation to “real” value and are rightly respected as approximations of “real” value, but in smaller samples it is still excessively dependent on potentially noisy lineup data outside that player’s control.

For me, the biggest difference Luka has over those other two? I know I can trust him to carry his team in the playoffs, when lineups tighten up, the roleplayers and deep benches can no longer be relied upon to push you forward, and you are going up against the best teams in the league. Top three specifically is a high bar — immediately tough to see how he has earned more trust than Steph or Giannis just to start — but I am not sure there are five guys I would rather have than him when elimination is on the line.

but it's not just this season, Luka has been marginally positive/slightly negative since his rookie season. And that's not totally off the impression I have watching him. Of course when he's hitting his threes he's looking like an ATG, but he has long stretches when he isn't, can be sloppy with the ball and never makes the team run.

What made you think I was only talking about one year…

So Luka bounces back with 44 points on 17/26 FG (ugly 2/9 from 3 and a putrid 8/14 at the line) in a win. Couldn't really hit a jumper all game but was nasty inside the paint and, most importantly, they won. DFS and Hardaway had it together mostly, and Bullock was enough of a threat.