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Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #49 - 2021-22 Luka Doncic
Posted: Fri Nov 4, 2022 1:01 pm
by LA Bird
Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #49
Posted: Fri Nov 4, 2022 1:43 pm
by AEnigma
1. Dave Cowens a.) 1974 b.) 1973 c.) 1976As we approach #50 and as distinctions between player evaluations become increasingly thin, I find myself wanting to reward the remaining “winners” to close out the project. Cowens was the best player on a top three SRS team every year from 1973-76, winning two titles in that stretch. In 1973 the Celtics did not win a title, but Cowens did win MVP and take the 1973 Knicks to a tight seven games even as Havlicek was hampered by injury. 1975 was probably his best individual regular season, but a disappointing playoff performance is enough for me to exclude it from my alternates with all four years being otherwise pretty comparable (his defence saw a gradual decline as his passing saw a gradual improvement).
Cort Reynolds wrote: He may not have been named MVP of the NBA Finals in 1974 or 1976, but undersized Hall of Fame Boston center Dave Cowens was the key force in winning both clinching games of those memorable championship series for the Celtics.
In the 1970's no one played harder for Boston, or anyone else for that matter, with apologies to Jerry Sloan, Norm Van Lier and Dave DeBusschere, than the fiery 6-8.5 redhead.
In game seven of the epic 1974 NBA Finals, the Celtics faced the tall task of beating Milwaukee on the road. Buck center Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was in his youthful prime and enjoyed nearly a six-inch height advantage - which was probably close to a foot when reach is included - over Cowens.
…
The Bucks had forced a seventh game by winning a double overtime classic in Boston just two days earlier, when Jabbar's long running baseline hook over Celtic backup center Hank Finkel gave Milwaukee a see-saw 102-101 victory.
Cowens had fouled out earlier in overtime, or the outcome may well have been different, with the Celtics likely celebrating title number 12 at home.
John Havlicek had traded baskets with the 7-2 Jabbar throughout the final extra session, scoring nine of his 36 points in the second OT, but Kareem got the last shot in.
Yet a hustling play by Cowens that came to epitomize his career happened late in that classic sixth contest. Dave switched off on a pick defensively to cover Robertson, then used his quick hands to poke the ball away from the Hall of Famer.
The speedy center then out-sprinted the 6-5 guard for the loose ball, which rolled into the backcourt. Cowens dove for the ball and slid with it near the sidelines while the loose leather bobbled in and out of his arms. Oscar trailed the play and never left his feet, almost in disbelief at the bigger man's reckless dive.
Cowens left a sweat streak about 10 feet long on the old Garden parquet, probably along with some skin. While the Bucks argued that he never had possession of the ball, the referees correctly ruled that the 24-second clock had nevertheless run out to give Boston the ball.
Not long after, Cowens fouled out with just 13 points on five of 19 shooting, and his absence contributed to the series-tying Buck win. Determined to redeem himself, the proud Celtic star came out firing in game seven.
Boston came up with a new strategy to aid Dave. The Boston braintrust decided to pressure the aging Robertson hard with defensive ace Don Chaney while he brought the ball upcourt.
And then once Milwaukee was into its halfcourt offense, coach Tom Heinsohn had Paul Silas, Havlicek and others also double down and help while Cowens fronted and battled Jabbar for position.
After he was told about the change in defensive strategy, Dave would relate years later in an interview that he felt like saying, "Yes! I am finally going to get some help on this guy."
After having the redhead go one-on-one for six games with the much bigger man who was the total focal point of their offense, Jabbar had averaged almost 34 points per game, so the Celtic brass felt it had to try something.
By not having to expend as much energy defending the 7-2 Jabbar alone, it seemed as if Cowens had been unchained and energized for the decisive contest.
On offense, the muscular Cowens used his superior speed and quickness to take the slower Jabbar out on the floor and drive by him, taking advantage of Kareem's relative lack of lateral quickness.
The high-leaping, aggressive Cowens won the opening jump over Jabbar and tapped it it to Havlicek, who fed a cutting Chaney perfectly for a layup that set an immediate, positive tone in the contest for the Celtics.
As time ran out in the first period, Dave bombed a 25-footer from the right side at the buzzer that went straight in to give Boston a 22-20 lead.
The Celtics lengthened the lead late in the half as their defense stymied Jabbar and Robertson. Dave triggered the vaunted Celtic fast break with a defensive rebound and airborne outlet pass that led to a 16-footer by Don Nelson.
Shortly afterward, Cowens nailed consecutive foul line jumpers that gave the visitors a 53-40 intermission edge. Their defensive strategy, cooked up between games six and seven by Celtic patriarch Red Auerbach, Heinsohn and the legendary Bob Cousy, was working almost to perfection.
Robertson, who had played for Cousy in Cincinnati before their falling out led to the Big O's trade to Milwaukee, was hounded into perhaps the worst playoff game of his career at a very inopportune time.
If nothing else, the all-court pressure put on by the quicker Celtics rushed the Bucks and took vital seconds off the shot clock, forcing hurried decisions and field goal tries. With veteran leader and playmaker Robertson flustered, the Buck offense floundered.
As a result, scoring machine Jabbar was amazingly held without a single point in the entire second stanza and for half of the third period. This was a major drought when one realizes that Kareem came into game seven averaging his number per outing in the 1974 playoffs (33).
…
At the other end, Boston closed the door with a clever bit of body control and quick reactions. Cowens missed a half hook in the lane that richocheted off Jabbar's hands to a nearly-prone Westphal, who was just getting up off the hardwood after being floored while setting a screen.
Paul then hung in the air as he looked to shoot a short jumper over the looming 7-2 Buck center. But at the last second, he double-clutched and instead tossed a beautifully improvised short alley-oop pass to Cowens past Jabbar. Dave caught the ball in the air on the right side of the lane and cleverly kissed it in off glass before Kareem could recover. That was the final nail in the Milwaukee coffin.
…
Havlicek, who enjoyed a great series, was named Finals MVP even though he tallied a modest 16 points on six of 20 shooting in the decisive contest.
His second fourth quarter three-point play on a foul line jumper as he was hit in the stomach capped a decisive 11-0 spurt that put the game well out of reach, 98-79.
But the game seven MVP was definitely Big Red. The final box score showed Cowens with game-high totals of 28 points and 14 rebounds, compared to 26 and 13 for Jabbar.
Yet the considerable numbers did not show his great intangible contribution, as well. Or how much energy the fiery redhead had supplied his team. Nor how his defense had helped Kareem wear down and fade. He sank just six of 11 free throws in the game and went scoreless for over a third of the game in the crucial middle section when Boston took command.
Or how Cowens had ignited the deadly Celtic transition game with his defensive rebounding and quick outlet bullets, often firing his passes in midair while coming down with the carom.
…
Due in large part to the scrambling defensive strategy of Boston, Jabbar only took 21 shots in the decisive seventh contest, six below his series average for attempts to that point.
He also converted only 10 field goals after making 14.5 baskets per contest over the first six games - well below his 54 percent shooting accuracy to that point in the title series.
…
The grueling style of play that the speedy 1970's Celtics employed, in concert with a short bench and going deep into the playoffs each year (and thus having shorter off-seasons), had started to take a toll on the club. Plus, team captain Havlicek and sixth man Don Nelson were each 36.
In 1976, a grizzled Boston squad fought its way to the Finals despite a foot injury to Havlicek. It was the 13th Celtic championship series appearance in 20 years, and the last before the Larry Bird era.
…
It was Cowens who took over and scored seven points in a clutch 9-4 Celtic spurt that clinched the crown.
Despite being plagued with five fouls, the redhead gambled and came up with the biggest play of the game. As Adams drove along the right side of the lane, Dave dangerously reached in and poked the ball away from the Rookie of the Year, lunging to tip the loose sphere away from Adams.
He then snatched up the loose ball and dribbled, or more accurately roared, 80 feet upcourt at top speed on a 2 on 1 fast break, a runaway red-headed center locomotive.
As he approached the basket, the Celtic center crossed over to the right side and gave a slight head fake to freeze defender Heard. Dave then laid in a twisting backhanded layup over his shoulder while being fouled. He cashed in the free throw to give Boston a 71-67 lead and a huge momentum swing.
After a Phoenix score, Dave sealed Adams outside the low block and took a perfectly timed top-side feed from Charlie Scott before converting a right-handed layin for a 73-69 advantage.
Cowens then forced a bad miss by Adams by hotly contesting his 15-footer. Adams later canned two foul shots to cut the lead back to two. Yet Havlicek swished a clutch 18-footer from the left wing to make it 75-71.
After a Westphal miss, Dave took an entry pass and spun quickly along the right baseline with his trademark move past Adams for a pretty layup. The pet move gave Boston a little breathing room with a 77-71 margin at the 3:29 mark.
White banked in a tough right side runner and added a free throw to stretch the lead to nine, and it was all over but the shouting as Boston ultimately held on to win, 87-80.
After the final buzzer sounded, a tired Cowens hugged retiring teammate Nelson as they strode off the court as champions for the last time. For Nellie, it was a satisfying fifth ring after being released by the Lakers over a decade earlier.
With White struggling and Hondo hurt, it was clearly the clutch late offensive burst from Cowens that capped banner number 13. His aggressive, all-out defense also led to a drought of over five minutes without a basket for the Suns down the stretch.
Even though Dave scored 21 points in the decisive win, paced the defense and led all players in rebounds during the series while averaging 20.5 ppg, teammate JoJo White (21.7 ppg) was named Finals MVP.
Yet in true Cowens fashion, Dave probably didn't care that much, as long as Boston won. He was simply about winning, an undersized center who won on great athleticism (strength, speed, quickness and jumping ability), high basketball intelligence, skill, and a burning desire as bright as his red mane.
"There is no player with greater desire than Dave Cowens," said CBS commentator and fiery Hall of Famer Rick Barry during the 1976 Finals.
A powerful leaper, Cowens frequently won jump balls against much taller centers like Jabbar and an older Chamberlain, and used great positioning to frustrate Kareem and occasionally block his shots as well by forcing him to turn back to his right shoulder, away from his patented hook.
Back then a center jump ball was held at the start of each quarter, and if that rule seems antiquated, consider that the original rules up through the 1930's required that there be a center jump after every basket. So each quarter jump ball could be a key extra possession gained.
As Havlicek, who played the first seven seasons of his career with the great Bill Russell and then his final eight with Cowens, the 1970-71 co-Rookie of the Year, once said - "no one ever did more for the Celtics than Dave Cowens."
In the post-game six locker room TV interviews with CBS, Havlicek reinforced this claim. "We were able to keep Dave on the floor (not foul out), and that made the difference," said Hondo.
Unfortunately, Dave's all-out style and annual deep playoff runs eventually contributed to his body breaking down by the time he reached his early 30's.
…
Heinsohn, who after the death of Red Auerbach assumed the mantel of Mr. Celtic after 50-plus years as star player, championship coach and team announcer, called his 1970's Boston teams "the quickest of all Celtic clubs."
As such he designed a revolutionary point center/forward type of up-tempo offense to take advantage of the extraordinary blend of skills, athleticism and desire of his speedy red-headed center and Havlicek, as well as the sharpshooting White.
Those Celtics did not have a true point guard. White, Chaney and Havlicek shared the ballhandling duties, while Cowens often directed the offense from the top of the key with his passing, driving and shooting ability.
Cowens’ Backpicks WOWYR scores are a bit underwhelming, but I was pretty impressed with what I saw from a similar type of raw win-loss analysis as I did with Thurmond.
1972: 54-25, 2-1
1973: 68-14
1974: 55-25, 1-1
1975: 51-14, 9-8
1976: 52-26, 2-2
1977: 29-21, 15-17
1978: 32-45, 0-5
1979: 27-41, 2-12
Overall: 368-211 with (52-win pace), 31-46 without (33-win pace)
And then even in 1980 he at least contributed to what would be the second-best regular season SRS team of Bird’s career.
So much historical love for the 1970s Knicks, and generally speaking quite a lot of historical love for Barry (even if in this particular project his voters have been trailed off), but never all too much for Cowens; maybe if Finals MVP voters had extended the same generosity to him as they twice did to Reed, he would see a little more of a consistent push.
2. Luka Doncic (2022)
3. Rick Barry (1975)Luka is the most consistent postseason performer and has the highest ceiling in future projects; his defence bothers me, but his size offers enough ahead of a Trae or Lillard that I feel he could be hidden to a somewhat similar extent as what we saw with Harden (although for me peak Harden has shown enough more on that end to prefer him). Barry and Erving were the two best wings in basketball up to Jordan’s entry onto the stage. Wing-play has evolved along with the game, but I am fine deferring to more of a legacy/accolade pick this late in the project.
4. Paul George (2019)
5. Jayson Tatum (2022)
6. Jimmy Butler (2020)All three are
probably better in the absolute than Barry, but Barry’s passing is enough of an x-factor that I think you could still argue he provides more offensive value than all three while also having better accolades. I think these three all have reasonably similar postseason value. Butler has the most outstanding individual games, but I think his narrative benefits disproportionately from those outliers rather than from his expected performance level. Bam is easily the best secondary piece for all of these seasons and I think his contributions go too undersold when trying to put all credit to Butler. Tatum outplayed Butler last postseason but made the mistake of continuing onto the Finals and hurting his own averages. He and George are more directly comparable because of their lesser passing impact, but I side narrowly with George because his 2019 regular season was on another level (third in MVP, third in DPoY, first in on/off).
Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #49
Posted: Fri Nov 4, 2022 8:11 pm
by trelos6
49. Grant Hill 96-97. Pre injury Grant was a beast. Shame we never got to see his full potential. 23.2 pp75 on +2 rTS% with 3.5 O-PIPM and 1.7 D-PIPM. This is the only season I’d have above Reggie Miller.
50. Reggie Miller 93-94. A gravity unrivalled until Steph came into the league. His ability to space the floor for teammates and ramp up his scoring in the post season is why he's here. One of the most portable players of all time and a big ceiling raiser. 23 pp75 at +10.8 rTS%. Had about 9 seasons similar, so they’re all pretty close.
51: Manu Ginobili 04-05 > 06-07, 10-11. 21.9 pp75 @ +8 rTS%. +7.1 PIPM (4.4 OPIPM, 2.7 DPIPM). Amazing season, and fantastic playoffs.
52. Bob McAdoo 1974-75. 26.7 pp75 @ + 6.7% rTS. +4.6 PIPM (4.1 OPIPM, 0,5 DPIPM). NBA MVP.
53. Paul George 18-19. 26.6 pp75 @ + 2.6% rTS. +6.1 PIPM (3.9 OPIPM, 2.2 DPIPM). 3rd in MVP.
54. Paul Pierce 01-02. 25.3 pp75 @ + 5.0% rTS. + 5.2 PIPM (3.3 OPIPM, 1.9 DPIPM).
Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #49
Posted: Fri Nov 4, 2022 11:30 pm
by trex_8063
Again popping in for some fellows I think might be getting on toward overdue....
1st ballot: '22 Jimmy Butler (> '20) decided I need to put him in here.
Very comparable to Pippen, imo. I think you can make a case he's marginally better, in fact (though health/availability is a consideration). So given Pippen went in nearly 10 places ago.....
2nd: '22 Luka Doncic ('21, '20)
Not real sure to place him, but with Westbrook in he should definitely be in the mix (can we say to a certainty Westbrook was any better?).
3rd: '86 Kevin McHale
Strictly in term of volume and shooting efficiency, this is one of the greatest individual scoring seasons of all-time. It seems he was pretty good defensively, too. Oh, and it was for an all-time tier championship team.
4th: '75 Bob McAdoo
5th: '68 Connie Hawkins
6th: '06 Elton Brand
7th: '14 Kevin Love
8th: '92 Clyde Drexler
9th: '94 Reggie Miller [>'95, other seasons kinda close]
10th: '89 John Stockton ['88, '90, others close]
11th: '75 Rick Barry
12th: '22 Rudy Gobert [>'21, '19]
.....something like that. They're all so bloody close at this point.
Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #49
Posted: Sat Nov 5, 2022 8:53 pm
by Samurai
1. Connie Hawkins 1968. Another great season from yesteryear that if too often overlooked today. Yes, era strength is a legit concern, probably as much or more than it was for Mikan. But if not for era strength, I would have put Hawkins in before now so its a question of how much we want to continue penalizing him for it. Led the league in scoring at 26.8 ppg while playing nearly 45 minutes/game. Also led the league in PER, OWS, WS, WS/48, and TS% and finished second in rebounds/game, third in assists/game and even fourth in DWS. Was league MVP, won a ring and picked up the Playoffs MVP as well.
2. Dave Cowens 1973 (alternate 76, 74). Gotta admit that a big part of this is I was just a big fan of his game. Incredible motor who just ran with an all-out pedal-to-the medal style every minute he was on the court. Outstanding rebounder (particularly on the defensive glass), could hit the midrange jumper enough to force opposing bigs away from the paint, and a very effective lefty hook in the low post despite not being the tallest center around. While not a shot-blocker due to short arms, he was a very good defensive player in all other aspects.
3. Rick Barry 1975. As a Warriors fan, I've obviously seen Barry play a lot. And I've never been a fan, largely because of his demeanor. When he was upset, which happened pretty frequently, he would pout on the court unlike anyone I've ever seen past the 6th grade. Literally pout - just stand there and be completely disengaged from the game. Throw the ball to him and he'd just immediately throw it back to you as if he were disgusted that you tried to include him in the game. At that point, Attles had no choice but to sub him out since he would just be playing 4 on 5. I was disgusted that a professional would act that way. But when he was engaged, he was a tremendous player and that's what I'm basing this on. Outstanding shooter and scorer and the best passing forward in the game until Bird came along. Not much on the offensive glass but a solid defensive rebounder for a 3. He was also an underrated defender. True, he didn't like overly physical play and he could be taken advantage of if a bigger guy went at him down low. But he was a decent man defender on the wing, particularly earlier in his career before he lost a step in quickness and was an excellent help defender, leading the league in steals and being an overall defensive pest.
Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #49
Posted: Sun Nov 6, 2022 1:37 am
by falcolombardi
My temptative picks
2020 butler (2022)
I have came to apreciate 2020 miami butler a bit more in rewatch, his defensive effort seems better (maybe by having a lower load offensively) than 2022 and he shows the ability to score as 2022 butler did when the situation arises for it
Great creation, strong scoring, low turnovers and good defense and intangibles is a hell of a overall package.
2- 1994 dikembe mutombo
Being Arguably the best rim protector and most impactful overall defender in a league with hakeem and robinson is a hell of an achievement. Imcredible impact data too and his rim protection in the playoffs is somethingh out of 60's russel
Probably the best pure rim protecting center left (as in star defensive big who doesnt add much value offensively or defending in the perimeter) but what he did in the paint is historical enough for me here.
3-2005 ginobili
I dont know how much i may be underating him for the low minutes when his overall impact is still so high but i feel like the advantage of playing heavy minutes against bench units snd having fresher legs benefitted in comparision to guys like butler or reggie who were the focal point of opposing defenses full time
That is about the only negative thingh i cam say of peak manu and even that is one i am not sure of. Just a impressively efficient scorer with great creativity and passing who was a nice defender to boot. Could be argued even higher on pure ability
4-1995 reggie miller (1994)
Defense dissapointed me a bit but i also may be overreacting to it too. His offense is an about as good as it gets case for a player who doesn handle the ball or create much off passinh
Impressive scoring, easy to fit into any team, great team offense results and his gravity created some opportunities for teammates that dont show in the boxscore (if not as many as more on ball creators)
5- luka doncic 2022
Not comfortable enough with how exploitable his defense has been in the playoffs to have him higher
But he may be literally the best offensive player left to pick in the project, huge playmaking and scoring volume with ok efficiency in the playoffs
Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #49
Posted: Sun Nov 6, 2022 7:15 am
by Oscar9992
2021-22 Jokic is Top 5 peak of all time imho!
Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #49
Posted: Sun Nov 6, 2022 7:31 pm
by 70sFan
It's my small victory that someone as defensive minded as Thurmond reached top 50. It would be nice to see another defensive superstar (Mutombo) to get this credit, we will see.
1. 1993/94 Dikembe Mutombo HM: 1996/97
I decided to pick younger, more mobile version of Mutombo who absolutely dominated the opposing offenses in the playoffs. He was as close to a one-man defensive army as it is possible in that run. He averaged staggering 9.3 BLK% in the playoffs in almost 43 mpg, which is nothing short of incredible. All of that came without excessive gambling, he was a very fundamentally sound rim protector.
I don't love his offensive game, but he was a solid finisher and excellent offensive rebounder. He could also draw many fouls and although his FT% is quite poor, it's not to the level of hurting his team.
I have a tough time picking Dikembe/Thurmond over the next offensive superstars (Doncic, Baylor, Barry), but I think more with time that top tier defensive anchors are significantly underappreciated. I mean, Nuggets were one game away from playing the WCF, even though Mutombo had no star around him and they had to face two contender-level teams in both rounds. Dikembe had no strong defenders around him and even though Nuggets were offensive oriented, they weren't that good on that end either. I doubt Doncic would get further with equally talented team.
2. 1985/86 Kevin McHale HM: 1986/87, 1987/88
I think people don't realize how important McHale was to these Celtics teams. McHale might be the most underrated scorer ever - he never reached the volume of top tier first options, but he was the type of player you just can't gameplan against - he would always get his typical 22-24 ppg on +10 rTS%.
Unlike most finishers, McHale wasn't really reliant on playmakers - yeah, you have to give him the ball inside, but you don't need Magic Johnson for that... or even Larry Bird. In 1989 without Larry, McHale still posted 23 pp75 on +7.1 rTS%. Kevin didn't specialize on finishing high efficiency actions either, he mostly used his absurd shooting touch to finish low post attempts and deep catches. He was always very quick with his decisions and didn't waste much time when he got the ball. Despite having a reputation of a black hole, McHale relied on a few perfected moves to score quickly off the catch - turnaround jumpshot, right-handed hook, quick up and under. Seriously, McHale is probably the most fundamentally sound post player I have ever seen (at least among bigs) when you take into account the way he worked without the ball to establish position. You can't get any better than that.
I picked 1986 version, because I prefer his defense when he was younger and quicker. 1987 would a clear choice without the PS injury though, he was a legit MVP-level player in the RS in my opinion.
3. 2021/22 Luka Doncic HM: 2020/21
I think he might be a bit underrated in this peak project, but I still have some concerns about his game - mediocre and exploitable defender, poor off-ball player and very ball-dominant offensive star. Still, I can't deny that his creation ability is among the best ever and at this point, we don't have any offensive savants without any weaknesses left.
I thought about Barry as well, but after watching quite a lot of 1975 Warriors games recently, I came out with mixed feelings about him. He was certainly very impactful offensive player with his creativity and off-ball movement, but unlike someone like Steph or Reggie, Barry couldn't really create efficient shots at this point of his career and he relied extremely heavily on midrange game. He was good at it, don't get me wrong, but he's not GOAT level midrange shooter either. Rick just couldn't pressure opponents inside at this point, his slashing game was a bit limited and despite excellent vision and passing skills, he wasn't a great ball-handler to operate as a top tier playmaker. I give him credit for very quick decision making, excellent ability to read the action in almost no time and very refined P&R game, despite limited ball-handling skills.
I am also mixed about his defense - he certainly did more on that end than Luka, but he was a big time gambler with good awareness, but limited physical tools. I think he could look worse in a weaker defensive team to be honest.
Still, if someone can convince me that Barry deserves the nod over Doncic, I can go with that direction. I often struggle to compare off-ball shooters to heliocentric stars in terms of offensive impact, it's quite possible that I underrate Rick here.
HM: 1995 Reggie Miller - another one who could be underrated by my evaluation. Not much of a defender or playmaker, but amazing scorer with a lot of off-ball value. I also can be convinced that he should be ahead of Luka.
HM II: 1959 Hagan, 1956 Arizin, 1974 Havlicek, 2022 Butler, 2019 George, 1968 Hawkins, 1976 Cowens
Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #49
Posted: Mon Nov 7, 2022 2:01 pm
by LA Bird
Here are the results for round 49
Winner: 22 Doncic
There were 6 voters in this round: AEnigma, trelos6, trex_8063, Samurai, falcolombardi, 70sFan
A total of 37 seasons received at least 1 vote: 02 Pierce, 05 Ginobili, 06 Brand, 07 Ginobili, 11 Ginobili, 14 Love, 19 George, 19 Gobert, 20 Butler, 20 Doncic, 21 Doncic, 21 Gobert, 22 Butler, 22 Doncic, 22 Gobert, 22 Tatum, 56 Arizing, 59 Hagan, 68 Hawkins, 73 Cowens, 74 Cowens, 74 Havlicek, 75 Barry, 75 McAdoo, 76 Cowens, 86 McHale, 87 McHale, 88 McHale, 88 Stockton, 89 Stockton, 90 Stockton, 92 Drexler, 94 Miller, 94 Mutombo, 95 Miller, 97 Hill, 97 Mutombo
Top 10 seasons: 22 Butler, 22 Doncic, 20 Butler, 94 Mutombo, 94 Miller, 86 McHale, 21 Doncic, 76 Cowens, 19 George, 73 Cowens
H2H record (1 season per player)
22 Doncic: 0.630 (17-10)
22 Butler: 0.625 (15-9)
94 Mutombo: 0.500 (11-11)
94 Miller: 0.464 (13-15)
76 Cowens: 0.464 (13-15)
86 McHale: 0.409 (9-13)
19 George: 0.407 (11-16)
Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #49 - 2021-22 Luka Doncic
Posted: Mon Nov 7, 2022 5:03 pm
by Ambrose
I didn't vote (and these are small voting samples) but I find it hard to believe any version of Penny was better than Luka last year. Let alone 10 spots better.
Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #49 - 2021-22 Luka Doncic
Posted: Mon Nov 7, 2022 5:35 pm
by AEnigma
Ambrose wrote:I didn't vote (and these are small voting samples) but I find it hard to believe any version of Penny was better than Luka last year. Let alone 10 spots better.
Depends on how strict you want to be with era relativity. Time machined Penny directly to the league today, yeah, maybe not, but I do think he was a more capable defender and in his own league was clearly an elite scorer and playmaker until his body broke down, plus showed up several orders of magnitude higher in relative regular season impact. Which I think is really what holds Luka back. Everyone is impressed with how he performs in the postseason, but it is strange how little that seems to reflect to the regular season. Even noted postseason risers like Hakeem and Reggie and Gus Williams all had a pretty high baseline regular season impact eclipsing what we have seen from Luka. And seeing as that leap in value is clearly not coming on the defensive end, you end up with the profile of a bad defender who has an incredibly resilient offensive style but not one which really generates desirable seeding because of the quicker diminishing returns of his underwhelming scoring efficiency and extreme ball control.
Like I said earlier, I think he could have gone earlier and maybe should have gone earlier, and I never felt those voting for him in the top forty were wrong or anything, but this early in his career there are still a lot of questions about how much his playstyle suits the formation of a reasonable championship team. If in three years he ends up in the top thirty because he cleaned up a few weaknesses and had an MVP season or a Finals run, would not be remotely surprised.
Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #49 - 2021-22 Luka Doncic
Posted: Mon Nov 7, 2022 7:20 pm
by Ambrose
AEnigma wrote:Ambrose wrote:I didn't vote (and these are small voting samples) but I find it hard to believe any version of Penny was better than Luka last year. Let alone 10 spots better.
Depends on how strict you want to be with era relativity. Time machined Penny directly to the league today, yeah, maybe not, but I do think he was a more capable defender and in his own league was clearly an elite scorer and playmaker until his body broke down, plus
showed up several orders of magnitude higher in relative regular season impact. Which I think is really what holds Luka back. Everyone is impressed with how he performs in the postseason, but it is strange how little that seems to reflect to the regular season. Even noted postseason risers like Hakeem and Reggie and Gus Williams
all had a pretty high baseline regular season impact eclipsing what we have seen from Luka. And seeing as that leap in value is clearly not coming on the defensive end, you end up with the profile of a bad defender who has an incredibly resilient offensive style but
not one which really generates desirable seeding because of the quicker diminishing returns of his underwhelming scoring efficiency and extreme ball control.Like I said earlier, I think he could have gone earlier and maybe should have gone earlier, and I never felt those voting for him in the top forty were wrong or anything, but this early in his career there are still a lot of questions about how much his playstyle suits the formation of a reasonable championship team. If in three years he ends up in the top thirty because he cleaned up a few weaknesses and had an MVP season or a Finals run, would not be remotely surprised.
Based on what?
Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #49 - 2021-22 Luka Doncic
Posted: Mon Nov 7, 2022 7:22 pm
by 70sFan
Ambrose wrote:AEnigma wrote:Ambrose wrote:I didn't vote (and these are small voting samples) but I find it hard to believe any version of Penny was better than Luka last year. Let alone 10 spots better.
Depends on how strict you want to be with era relativity. Time machined Penny directly to the league today, yeah, maybe not, but I do think he was a more capable defender and in his own league was clearly an elite scorer and playmaker until his body broke down, plus
showed up several orders of magnitude higher in relative regular season impact. Which I think is really what holds Luka back. Everyone is impressed with how he performs in the postseason, but it is strange how little that seems to reflect to the regular season. Even noted postseason risers like Hakeem and Reggie and Gus Williams
all had a pretty high baseline regular season impact eclipsing what we have seen from Luka. And seeing as that leap in value is clearly not coming on the defensive end, you end up with the profile of a bad defender who has an incredibly resilient offensive style but
not one which really generates desirable seeding because of the quicker diminishing returns of his underwhelming scoring efficiency and extreme ball control.Like I said earlier, I think he could have gone earlier and maybe should have gone earlier, and I never felt those voting for him in the top forty were wrong or anything, but this early in his career there are still a lot of questions about how much his playstyle suits the formation of a reasonable championship team. If in three years he ends up in the top thirty because he cleaned up a few weaknesses and had an MVP season or a Finals run, would not be remotely surprised.
Based on what?
Based on how Penny fared without Shaq in 1995 vs Doncic mediocre on/off numbers since the beginning of his career.
Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #49 - 2021-22 Luka Doncic
Posted: Mon Nov 7, 2022 7:31 pm
by Ambrose
70sFan wrote:Ambrose wrote:AEnigma wrote:Depends on how strict you want to be with era relativity. Time machined Penny directly to the league today, yeah, maybe not, but I do think he was a more capable defender and in his own league was clearly an elite scorer and playmaker until his body broke down, plus showed up several orders of magnitude higher in relative regular season impact. Which I think is really what holds Luka back. Everyone is impressed with how he performs in the postseason, but it is strange how little that seems to reflect to the regular season. Even noted postseason risers like Hakeem and Reggie and Gus Williams all had a pretty high baseline regular season impact eclipsing what we have seen from Luka. And seeing as that leap in value is clearly not coming on the defensive end, you end up with the profile of a bad defender who has an incredibly resilient offensive style but not one which really generates desirable seeding because of the quicker diminishing returns of his underwhelming scoring efficiency and extreme ball control.
Like I said earlier, I think he could have gone earlier and maybe should have gone earlier, and I never felt those voting for him in the top forty were wrong or anything, but this early in his career there are still a lot of questions about how much his playstyle suits the formation of a reasonable championship team. If in three years he ends up in the top thirty because he cleaned up a few weaknesses and had an MVP season or a Finals run, would not be remotely surprised.
Based on what?
Based on how Penny fared without Shaq in 1995 vs Doncic mediocre on/off numbers since the beginning of his career.
Seems like a fairly weak case.
Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #49 - 2021-22 Luka Doncic
Posted: Mon Nov 7, 2022 7:40 pm
by AEnigma
Ambrose wrote:70sFan wrote:Ambrose wrote:
Based on what?
Based on how Penny fared without Shaq in 1995 vs Doncic mediocre on/off numbers since the beginning of his career.
Seems like a fairly weak case.
If you have no interest in the regular season or otherwise think that Luka’s team circumstance uniquely disadvantages him, maybe. Otherwise, what really separates him in the regular season from players like Trae or Lillard, both of whom also score at massive volume and have led conference finals teams and indeed have higher ORAPM values than Luka over the past three years.
I would be careful not to let recency bias make Luka look more dominant relative to the current league than he actually is, and to remember that his entire postseason career currently consists of 5 series.
Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #49 - 2021-22 Luka Doncic
Posted: Mon Nov 7, 2022 8:17 pm
by Ambrose
AEnigma wrote:Ambrose wrote:70sFan wrote:Based on how Penny fared without Shaq in 1995 vs Doncic mediocre on/off numbers since the beginning of his career.
Seems like a fairly weak case.
If you have no interest in the regular season or otherwise think that Luka’s team circumstance uniquely disadvantages him, maybe.
Otherwise, what really separates him in the regular season from players like Trae or Lillard, both of whom also score at massive volume and have led conference finals teams and indeed have higher ORAPM values than Luka over the past three years.I would be careful not to let recency bias make Luka look more dominant relative to the current league than he actually is, and to remember that his entire postseason career currently consists of 5 series.
When you reduce it down to that, sure, I guess.
Except Luka's massive volume is greater than theirs. He has 3 seasons of higher scoring volume than Lillard has ever had, and 2 (plus a tie) over Trae. That is with comparable efficiency. I notice you used ORAPM, and not something like ORAPTOR or OLEBRON where the results vary quite a bit. All while downplaying the fact that Luka scales up in the postseason. If you want to compare their postseason runs, be my guest.
Conference Finals RunDame 33.1 pts/100 56.6% TS 4.9 OBPM
Trae 37.9 pts/100 55.1% TS 6.8 OBPM
Luka 44.6 pts/100 57.7% TS 6.8 OBPM
Even if you want to say they have comparable regular seasons it's pretty clear who the superior postseason scorer is, and Dame/Trae certainly aren't closing that gap with defense. It seems pretty easy to argue he did it with the inferior cast as well. Don't see an argument for either of them to be honest.
If the argument for Penny is a remarkably impressive 28 game sample based mostly on team results, (bref doesn't even have +/- for that year, no concrete RAPM either) while his individual numbers never came close to reaching that level again, I'm going to lean with the guy that has proven he can hold his level of play for the last three seasons. If you have the opposite opinion, that's fine, but at a minimum, the gap between the two seems unreasonable.
Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #49 - 2021-22 Luka Doncic
Posted: Mon Nov 7, 2022 8:19 pm
by Owly
Ambrose wrote:I didn't vote (and these are small voting samples) but I find it hard to believe any version of Penny was better than Luka last year. Let alone 10 spots better.
I think "spots" is the wrong unit of measure. Because it's not a unit of measure, it's a rank.
If 7 Olympic sprinters and an overweight, arthritic, gimpy-kneed, asthmatic older person ran 100m race, the 1 rank gap between 7th and 8th would be considered the same as any other and far less, rather than far more, than the "6 place" gap between 1st and 7th. This would be misleading.
The rank gaps aren't constant.
Furthermore
1) at this point the gaps are really close.
2) Because of that, the noise in evaluating a smaller sample, differing weighting systems (e.g. RS versus playoffs), differing evaluation systems (impact, box, accolades ...), a [noted] small voting pool, the impact choice of voting systems can have ... the ranking is, in and of itself of limited utility and have wide ranges of plausible movement/margins of error. The
hope would be the quality of debate made it worthwhile to participants and as a resource.
One can debate whether it is. Whether the voting system is optimal (for debate? for a good ranking?)? And you can indeed question rankings after the fact. But the engagement with the arguments put here or in voting threads with this and the last response seems low and low effort. If might be more persuasive if you articulated what supports your position more fully and/or why the position you consider too pro-Penny is flawed.
Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #49 - 2021-22 Luka Doncic
Posted: Mon Nov 7, 2022 8:42 pm
by AEnigma
Ambrose wrote:AEnigma wrote:Ambrose wrote:Seems like a fairly weak case.
If you have no interest in the regular season or otherwise think that Luka’s team circumstance uniquely disadvantages him, maybe.
Otherwise, what really separates him in the regular season from players like Trae or Lillard, both of whom also score at massive volume and have led conference finals teams and indeed have higher ORAPM values than Luka over the past three years.I would be careful not to let recency bias make Luka look more dominant relative to the current league than he actually is, and to remember that his entire postseason career currently consists of 5 series.
When you reduce it down to that, sure, I guess.
Except Luka's massive volume is greater than theirs. He has 3 seasons of higher scoring volume than Lillard has ever had, and 2 (plus a tie) over Trae. That is with comparable efficiency.
Balancing efficiency with volume, I would say he and Trae have been similarly effective scorers, but here you are definitely underselling Lillard’s efficiency.
I notice you used ORAPM, and not something like ORAPTOR or OLEBRON where the results vary quite a bit.
Because those balance raw impact with box score components and my argument was not particularly tied to which of them have better box scores.
while downplaying the fact that Luka scales up in the postseason. If you want to compare their postseason runs, be my guest.
Conference Finals Run
Dame 33.1 pts/100 56.6% TS 4.9 OBPM
Trae 37.9 pts/100 55.1% TS 6.8 OBPM
Luka 44.6 pts/100 57.7% TS 6.8 OBPM
Even if you want to say they have comparable regular seasons it's pretty clear who the superior postseason scorer is, and Dame/Trae certainly aren't closing that gap with defense. It seems pretty easy to argue he did it with the inferior cast as well. Don't see an argument for either of them to be honest.
His postseason elevation is the entire reason he was voted in and the entire reason he has been receiving votes since the mid-30s. To my recollection, neither Lillard nor Trae have received a single ballot (maaaaaybe Lillard received one random one from an uncommitted voter).
Regardless, it seems you have not really considered the key reason I used those two as comparison: while they are all offensive giants, their overall ranks in most of these metrics (even the ones mixing in box scores) take a huge hit because of how much of a drain they are defensively. Luka is not providing
clear top five value on offence in the regular season, and to cover for his defence that is what he should be doing.
If the argument for Penny is a remarkably impressive 28 game sample based mostly on team results, (bref doesn't even have +/- for that year, no concrete RAPM either) while his individual numbers never came close to reaching that level again, I'm going to lean with the guy that has proven he can hold his level of play for the last three seasons.
I encourage you to read back through the Penny thread (and maybe a couple of its predecessors). 28 games was far from the sole reason given, and he very much had a strong three-year run of his own.
Again, I do not think it is anything wild to prefer Luka, especially if we use a hyper-modern lens, but here you pretty much are asking for us to use a 25-31 game sample for Luka, because his
regular season sample really does not stand out relative to many others in terms of raw value provided to a team.
Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #49 - 2021-22 Luka Doncic
Posted: Mon Nov 7, 2022 8:44 pm
by 70sFan
Ambrose wrote:70sFan wrote:Ambrose wrote:
Based on what?
Based on how Penny fared without Shaq in 1995 vs Doncic mediocre on/off numbers since the beginning of his career.
Seems like a fairly weak case.
Well, I wouldn't say it's weaker than your strong reliance on scoring volume numbers.
Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #49 - 2021-22 Luka Doncic
Posted: Mon Nov 7, 2022 8:49 pm
by Ambrose
70sFan wrote:Ambrose wrote:70sFan wrote:Based on how Penny fared without Shaq in 1995 vs Doncic mediocre on/off numbers since the beginning of his career.
Seems like a fairly weak case.
Well, I wouldn't say it's weaker than your strong reliance on scoring volume numbers.
That was simply a counter to a claim about scoring.