38 y/o MJ vs 38 y/o LeBron

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38 y/o MJ vs 38 y/o LeBron 

Post#1 » by Ein Sof » Sat Nov 5, 2022 10:25 pm

MJ: 20.7 PER, 3.1 BPM, 0.075 WS/48

LBJ: 18.5 PER, 2.4 BPM, 0.045 WS/48

Discuss
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Re: 38 y/o MJ vs 38 y/o LeBron 

Post#2 » by ice9 » Sat Nov 5, 2022 10:46 pm

I would say most notably we should not rely purely on bballreference for age. LeBron is 37 turning 38 on 12/30. Jordan's first season with the Wizards he was 38 and turned 39 on 2/17. Better apples to apples for age would be LeBron NEXT season vs MJs first Wizards season.

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Re: 38 y/o MJ vs 38 y/o LeBron 

Post#3 » by RCM88x » Sat Nov 5, 2022 10:48 pm

Fun fact through 8 games Jordan was 0-10 on 3s so maybe there is something with 38 yo GOATs not being able to shoot 3s at all.
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Re: 38 y/o MJ vs 38 y/o LeBron 

Post#4 » by GeorgeMarcus » Sat Nov 5, 2022 11:24 pm

ice9 made a great point but beyond that, sample is way too small for LeBron. Plus I don't put stock in any of the stats used.
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Re: 38 y/o MJ vs 38 y/o LeBron 

Post#5 » by Owly » Sat Nov 5, 2022 11:27 pm

Ein Sof wrote:MJ: 20.7 PER, 3.1 BPM, 0.075 WS/48

LBJ: 18.5 PER, 2.4 BPM, 0.045 WS/48

Discuss

1) An 8 game sample isn't enough to draw strong conclusions from.
1a) ... and probably shouldn't be presented in a comparison with a full season's data as like-for-like (posters right now know but just in terms of making it easier for future readers not glancing at post dates "through 8 games" might be relevant context).
2) Given LeBron's previous levels of production, whilst it is very possible he's done with being a top 10 player with upside in the playoffs, my instinct is to anchor closer to that previous level versus the 8 game sample at this point. Which isn't to say this start isn't a downward pull on that prior.
3) In terms of their careers, especially if LeBron's season were to continue at this level, these seasons are not very significant (it would for instance rank as LeBron's 19th best PER, 19th best BPM and 20th WS/48).
4) Mildly related to the above neither are in position which some would rate as of higher importance, i.e. we aren't getting to see how much they would enhance would-be contending teams.
4) Both these seasons have some health concerns. For those who lock in to "what actually happened to happen" (versus holistic, in a vacuum, adjust for luck) MJ's late season health probably hurts him for any notional playoff value (though I guess that kind of means some hypothetical as to value notional playoff value ...).
5) I think there's several seasons I'd take over MJ at 38 and therefore also pro-rata LeBron. Otoh, without close examination K Malone, Stockton, Jabbar, Parish. I would think Mutombo, though it depends if those minutes were blocked by Yao playing a full 80 or he couldn't play more without a big dropoff ... mind you I'm not sure of a very bad efficiency 30+usage guy, whose defense might at times reflect that age and offensive burden (this describes both) translates to a good team (cf: point 4; mileage for how they each adapt to a better team may vary) whilst I'm confident Mutombo has value. Probably Miller too.

1 and 3 are the core points here.
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Re: 38 y/o MJ vs 38 y/o LeBron 

Post#6 » by prolific passer » Sat Nov 5, 2022 11:44 pm

38 year old Kareem with a block out of nowhere.
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Re: 38 y/o MJ vs 38 y/o LeBron 

Post#7 » by prolific passer » Sun Nov 6, 2022 1:54 am

Owly wrote:
Ein Sof wrote:MJ: 20.7 PER, 3.1 BPM, 0.075 WS/48

LBJ: 18.5 PER, 2.4 BPM, 0.045 WS/48

Discuss

1) An 8 game sample isn't enough to draw strong conclusions from.
1a) ... and probably shouldn't be presented in a comparison with a full season's data as like-for-like (posters right now know but just in terms of making it easier for future readers not glancing at post dates "through 8 games" might be relevant context).
2) Given LeBron's previous levels of production, whilst it is very possible he's done with being a top 10 player with upside in the playoffs, my instinct is to anchor closer to that previous level versus the 8 game sample at this point. Which isn't to say this start isn't a downward pull on that prior.
3) In terms of their careers, especially if LeBron's season were to continue at this level, these seasons are not very significant (it would for instance rank as LeBron's 19th best PER, 19th best BPM and 20th WS/48).
4) Mildly related to the above neither are in position which some would rate as of higher importance, i.e. we aren't getting to see how much they would enhance would-be contending teams.
4) Both these seasons have some health concerns. For those who lock in to "what actually happened to happen" (versus holistic, in a vacuum, adjust for luck) MJ's late season health probably hurts him for any notional playoff value (though I guess that kind of means some hypothetical as to value notional playoff value ...).
5) I think there's several seasons I'd take over MJ at 38 and therefore also pro-rata LeBron. Otoh, without close examination K Malone, Stockton, Jabbar, Parish. I would think Mutombo, though it depends if those minutes were blocked by Yao playing a full 80 or he couldn't play more without a big dropoff ... mind you I'm not sure of a very bad efficiency 30+usage guy, whose defense might at times reflect that age and offensive burden (this describes both) translates to a good team (cf: point 4; mileage for how they each adapt to a better team may vary) whilst I'm confident Mutombo has value. Probably Miller too.

1 and 3 are the core points here.

Yeah. 38 year old Jordan only played in 60 games. All those guys you listed played pretty much the entire season and were more productive overall than first year wizards Jordan.
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Re: 38 y/o MJ vs 38 y/o LeBron 

Post#8 » by Mazter » Sun Nov 6, 2022 5:20 pm

Not all 38 yr old had the same mileage. LeBron still has 27 games till his 38th birthday but is already the only player with 1600+ total games and 60K+ minutes at age 38. He has already 63174 minutes in 1632 games. Jordan had only 1210 games and 46468 minutes. This includes college, regular and post season.
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Re: 38 y/o MJ vs 38 y/o LeBron 

Post#9 » by 70sFan » Sun Nov 6, 2022 6:15 pm

It's way too early to tell, but James hasn't played well so far this season. A lot of things can change because it's still early though, so do not overreact.
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Re: 38 y/o MJ vs 38 y/o LeBron 

Post#10 » by TheGOATRises007 » Mon Nov 7, 2022 12:47 am

Still think LeBron will grade out better.

Hasn't he been dealing with a stomach virus?
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Re: 38 y/o MJ vs 38 y/o LeBron 

Post#11 » by Dr Positivity » Mon Nov 7, 2022 5:18 am

Lebron's stats would be pretty reasonable (27pts on .56 TS% or something) if he was hitting 3s like last year
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Re: 38 y/o MJ vs 38 y/o LeBron 

Post#12 » by MDA » Fri Nov 25, 2022 5:17 pm

The 2002 Wizards started 2-9 before going on a 24-12 run to reach 26-21 overall and the 4 seed.

Then Jordan got hurt in Game 45.

Before the injury, Jordan was 1 of 3 guys averaging 25/5/5 (Kobe, Tmac, MJ), while MJ had many 40-point games and 3 game-winners. He actually had 51 and 45 in back-to-back games and was 30-30 overall in games that he played
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Re: 38 y/o MJ vs 38 y/o LeBron 

Post#13 » by Colbinii » Fri Nov 25, 2022 5:26 pm

MDA wrote:The 2002 Wizards started 2-9 before going on a 24-12 run to reach 26-21 overall and the 4 seed.

Then Jordan got hurt in Game 45.

Before the injury, Jordan was 1 of 3 guys averaging 25/5/5 (Kobe, Tmac, MJ), while MJ had many 40-point games and 3 game-winners. He actually had 51 and 45 in back-to-back games and was 30-30 overall in games that he played


Yup--this means we need to let the season saturate.

Fun Fact, Jordan's career minutes [Load on body] entering his age 38 season was 43,000 minutes. For LeBron, he was at 63,000 minutes in the NBA entering his age 38 season. That's nearly 50% more minutes.
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Re: 38 y/o MJ vs 38 y/o LeBron 

Post#14 » by MDA » Fri Nov 25, 2022 5:38 pm

Colbinii wrote:
MDA wrote:The 2002 Wizards started 2-9 before going on a 24-12 run to reach 26-21 overall and the 4 seed.

Then Jordan got hurt in Game 45.

Before the injury, Jordan was 1 of 3 guys averaging 25/5/5 (Kobe, Tmac, MJ), while MJ had many 40-point games and 3 game-winners. He actually had 51 and 45 in back-to-back games and was 30-30 overall in games that he played


Yup--this means we need to let the season saturate.

Fun Fact, Jordan's career minutes [Load on body] entering his age 38 season was 43,000 minutes. For LeBron, he was at 63,000 minutes in the NBA entering his age 38 season. That's nearly 50% more minutes.



Regardless of career minutes, a 30-year old will always run faster and jump higher than their 40-year old self

So age is the appropriate metric and Jordan was clearly superior at 38 than current 37-year Lebron.. Jordan could still dominate at 38 before the injury, while the current 37-year Lebron cannot...

Btw, Jordan was completely different physically after baseball, so baseball destroyed Jordan's body and ring count, aka it wasn't a "vacation" that helped his career.. Last I checked, AA minor leagues is hell
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Re: 38 y/o MJ vs 38 y/o LeBron 

Post#15 » by RCM88x » Fri Nov 25, 2022 5:51 pm

TIL: 24 ppg on -6 TS% is dominating while 25 ppg on -5 TS% isn't dominating
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Re: 38 y/o MJ vs 38 y/o LeBron 

Post#16 » by Colbinii » Fri Nov 25, 2022 5:53 pm

MDA wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
MDA wrote:The 2002 Wizards started 2-9 before going on a 24-12 run to reach 26-21 overall and the 4 seed.

Then Jordan got hurt in Game 45.

Before the injury, Jordan was 1 of 3 guys averaging 25/5/5 (Kobe, Tmac, MJ), while MJ had many 40-point games and 3 game-winners. He actually had 51 and 45 in back-to-back games and was 30-30 overall in games that he played


Yup--this means we need to let the season saturate.

Fun Fact, Jordan's career minutes [Load on body] entering his age 38 season was 43,000 minutes. For LeBron, he was at 63,000 minutes in the NBA entering his age 38 season. That's nearly 50% more minutes.



Regardless of career minutes, a 30-year old will always run faster and jump higher than their 40-year old self

So age is the appropriate metric and Jordan was clearly superior at 38 than current 37-year Lebron.. Jordan could still dominate at 38 before the injury, while the current 37-year Lebron cannot...

Btw, Jordan was completely different physically after baseball, so baseball destroyed Jordan's body and ring count, aka it wasn't a "vacation" that helped his career.. Last I checked, AA minor leagues is hell


I would love to see some evidence that AA Minor League baseball is harder on the body than a 100 game NBA season, let alone 5 seasons (that's the minute total difference).

Regardless, I am not presenting a case for LeBron and I am not trying to attack your beloved Idol, Michael Jordan. I am simply adding some information [Facts] to the conversation as not all 38 year olds [or 37 year olds] are the same given they put their body through different cycles.
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Re: 38 y/o MJ vs 38 y/o LeBron 

Post#17 » by 70sFan » Fri Nov 25, 2022 5:54 pm

38 years old Kareem crushes them, so I don't really get this discussion.
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Re: 38 y/o MJ vs 38 y/o LeBron 

Post#18 » by tsherkin » Fri Nov 25, 2022 6:27 pm

MDA wrote:Regardless of career minutes, a 30-year old will always run faster and jump higher than their 40-year old self


This is definitely the wrong approach. When there's a 20,000-minute difference in wear and tear on the body and two players are (as in this case) fairly close in age, the mileage matters much more than the specific age. So while it's generally quite likely that the 30 year-old will be in better athletic shape than the 40 year-old, there's no 30 year-old in this comparison. There are a couple of dudes in their late 30s with full careers worth of minutes on their bodies, and the mileage matters a lot more.
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Re: 38 y/o MJ vs 38 y/o LeBron 

Post#19 » by MyUniBroDavis » Sat Nov 26, 2022 7:48 am

Brons been trash but I’ll be suprised if he isn’t top 5-10 by the end of the year, most of it was him being sick + spacing being bad

He hasn’t looked slower than last year or anything and his defense has looked solid
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Re: 38 y/o MJ vs 38 y/o LeBron 

Post#20 » by homecourtloss » Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:55 pm

Bump
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…

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