Jayson Tatum v Luka Doncic

[Laimbeer]

How do they compare and who do you prefer?

[mdonnelly1989]

Lock this. There is no Poll.

[GeorgeMarcus]

Probably in the minority but I would take Tatum right now. Luka is a better playmaker/post scorer/rebounder, Tatum a better shooter/defender... Ultimately the defensive gap is the most significant though. Impact numbers paint Tatum in an extremely positive light and you know I'm a sucker for that.

[GeorgeMarcus]

Lock this. There is no Poll.

Lol or he could just add a poll

[mdonnelly1989]

Lock this. There is no Poll.

Lol or he could just add a poll

No just lock it, it's easier.

[Jaivl]

Lock this. There is no Poll.

Lol or he could just add a poll

No just lock it, it's easier.

Or we could just actually discuss things without needing a poll.

But, like... others, I'm not in the mood

[Dutchball97]

Tatum really doesn't have any weaknesses to him as a basketball player. He's a 6'8 guy who can play everywhere on the wing, can score from everywhere at a high clip on good efficiency, can create for himself, makes the right passes and is versatile and effective on defense. His personality will probably never cause any problems and he fits with just about everyone.

But even then I don't think Tatum has as high a ceiling as Luka has. I'm not saying Tatum won't be able to lead a team to a title but the way Luka has put the Mavs on his shoulders in the play-offs is just something hard to go against.

[CharityStripe34]

Before this season I'd have said Luka fairly quickly, but Tatum has closed any gap. I have them neck and neck. Tatum is a very good defender and a more efficient shooter, Luka is a better playmaker and scorer. Tatum is clearly the much better defensive player.

[mdonnelly1989]

Lol or he could just add a poll

No just lock it, it's easier.

Or we could just actually discuss things without needing a poll.

But, like... others, I'm not in the mood

Blasphemous. We need to see who wins...

[LukaTheGOAT]

Luka is still that guy imo.

Luka 2023 Numbers

Backpicks BPM-8.6 (#1 in league)
EPM-8.1 (#2 in league)
RAPTOR-10.2 (#3 in league)
SPI-4.6 (#1 in league)
BPm-11.4

Jayson Tatum 2023 Numbers

Backpicks BPM-5.7
EPM-6.1
RAPTOR-6.3
SPI-4.0
BPM-6.7

Also, this is from 6 days ago, but it is another reliable metric that reinforces my point.

Read on Twitter

For me to consider Tatum ahead of Luka he would have to be in discussion as arguably the best defender in the world (similar to Giannis). Instead, I think he might have an argument for best perimeter defender in the league, but that's not enough here.

Also, Luka is just a more proven PS performer.

All in all

Luka's PS runs measured

Bball Ref BPM
20-7.9
21-11.8
22-9.3

RAPTOR
20-9.2
21-11.3
22-3.5

Backpicks BPM
20-7.03
21-6.87
22-7.5

20-22 PS LEBRON-4.32


Tatum's PS runs measured:

Bball Ref BPM
20-6.3
21-6.5
22-4.5

RAPTOR
20-6.6
21-2.2
22-2.2

Backpicks BPM
20-4.95
21-3.53
22-1.9

20-22 PS LEBRON-2.91

The final thing to note is that Tatum in the PS has historically been closer as a scorer to his partner Jaylen Brown than he has been someone like Luka

Tatum

Jayson Tatum
18 PS: Inflation Adjusted-17.4 pts per 75 (rTS% of 3%)
19 PS: Inflation Adjusted-18.3 pts per 75 (rTS% of -1%)
20 PS: Inflation Adjusted-24.7 pts per 75 (rTS% of -0.1%)
21 PS: Inflation Adjusted 26.6 pts per 75 (rTS% of 0.3%)

22 PS: 23.7 pts per 75 (rTS% of 0.2%)

Jaylen Brown

18 PS: Inflation Adjusted-21.6 pts per 75 (rTS% of 0.5%)
19 PS: Inflation Adjusted-17.1 pts per 75 (rTS% of 8.4%)
20 PS: Inflation Adjusted-21.3 pts per 75 (rTS% of 3.9%)
21 PS: N/A

22 PS: 23 pts per 75 (rTS% of 2%)

Luka has averaged a PS Adjusted 33.5 pts per 75 on a rTS% of 3 over his 3 year PS span (over 1000 minutes). This is with him being the best playmaker in the playoffs the past 3 PS too, while arguably having a worse #2 and #3 option than Tatum from 20-22 as well.

[MyUniBroDavis]

I think you can make a case for Tatum especially statistically but luka might be the last player I’d wanna play against in general in a playoff series even with his Warriors series being meh lol

[f4p]

which stats would make the case for Tatum? in addition to all the stuff posted above, we're talking 31.7 vs 26.2 PER, 0.273 vs 0.217 WS48, and 11.1 vs 6.7 BPM. those are just massive differences. and i'm not sure how much the defensive difference could mean if the celtics are 17th in defense and the mavs are 8th. and this is with tatum's FTr and TS% way above his career numbers, so we'll have to see if it is sustainable.

and as also mentioned, they just aren't the same in the playoffs. luka has thrown down 3 massive playoffs already and, for all the talk of how well tatum played last year, a 17.6 PER / 4.5 BPM playoff run is not blowing anyone's skirt up.

[Dutchball97]

which stats would make the case for Tatum? in addition to all the stuff posted above, we're talking 31.7 vs 26.2 PER, 0.273 vs 0.217 WS48, and 11.1 vs 6.7 BPM. those are just massive differences. and i'm not sure how much the defensive difference could mean if the celtics are 17th in defense and the mavs are 8th. and this is with tatum's FTr and TS% way above his career numbers, so we'll have to see if it is sustainable.

and as also mentioned, they just aren't the same in the playoffs. luka has thrown down 3 massive playoffs already and, for all the talk of how well tatum played last year, a 17.6 PER / 4.5 BPM playoff run is not blowing anyone's skirt up.

Like LukaTheGOAT showed, more advanced metrics show a very similar picture as the boxscore metrics(as it honestly does quite often) but Tatum does have a pretty clear and big advantage in terms of raw +-. Tatum is currently 5th in the league at +129, while Luka is 61st at +51.

Some people shun the boxscore metrics and even the boxscore/+- composite metrics like EPM, RAPTOR and LEBRON, while pretty much regarding +- (whether raw +- or RAPM) as the "true impact" of a player so I guess those people could make a statistical case for Tatum at the moment?

[Statlanta]

Doncic because the playmaking gap in my opinion is bigger than the defensive gap.

[GeorgeMarcus]

which stats would make the case for Tatum? in addition to all the stuff posted above, we're talking 31.7 vs 26.2 PER, 0.273 vs 0.217 WS48, and 11.1 vs 6.7 BPM. those are just massive differences. and i'm not sure how much the defensive difference could mean if the celtics are 17th in defense and the mavs are 8th. and this is with tatum's FTr and TS% way above his career numbers, so we'll have to see if it is sustainable.

and as also mentioned, they just aren't the same in the playoffs. luka has thrown down 3 massive playoffs already and, for all the talk of how well tatum played last year, a 17.6 PER / 4.5 BPM playoff run is not blowing anyone's skirt up.

Tatum dominates Luka in impact stats. The stats posted above were basically just different iterations of the box score. Metrics like PER and BPM provide zero analytical value IMO... At that point we might as well reference the actual box numbers which at least have digestible meaning instead of being an arbitrary jumbled mess

[Dutchball97]

which stats would make the case for Tatum? in addition to all the stuff posted above, we're talking 31.7 vs 26.2 PER, 0.273 vs 0.217 WS48, and 11.1 vs 6.7 BPM. those are just massive differences. and i'm not sure how much the defensive difference could mean if the celtics are 17th in defense and the mavs are 8th. and this is with tatum's FTr and TS% way above his career numbers, so we'll have to see if it is sustainable.

and as also mentioned, they just aren't the same in the playoffs. luka has thrown down 3 massive playoffs already and, for all the talk of how well tatum played last year, a 17.6 PER / 4.5 BPM playoff run is not blowing anyone's skirt up.

Tatum dominates Luka in impact stats. The stats posted above were basically just different iterations of the box score. Metrics like PER and BPM provide zero analytical value IMO... At that point we might as well reference the actual box numbers which at least have digestible meaning instead of being an arbitrary jumbled mess

I do think it's important to weigh the boxscore too though (whether raw numbers or box metrics) otherwise Sam Hauser would be the best player on the Celtics right now and a top 3 MVP candidate alongside Jokic and Curry.

[GeorgeMarcus]

which stats would make the case for Tatum? in addition to all the stuff posted above, we're talking 31.7 vs 26.2 PER, 0.273 vs 0.217 WS48, and 11.1 vs 6.7 BPM. those are just massive differences. and i'm not sure how much the defensive difference could mean if the celtics are 17th in defense and the mavs are 8th. and this is with tatum's FTr and TS% way above his career numbers, so we'll have to see if it is sustainable.

and as also mentioned, they just aren't the same in the playoffs. luka has thrown down 3 massive playoffs already and, for all the talk of how well tatum played last year, a 17.6 PER / 4.5 BPM playoff run is not blowing anyone's skirt up.

Tatum dominates Luka in impact stats. The stats posted above were basically just different iterations of the box score. Metrics like PER and BPM provide zero analytical value IMO... At that point we might as well reference the actual box numbers which at least have digestible meaning instead of being an arbitrary jumbled mess

I do think it's important to weigh the boxscore too though (whether raw numbers or box metrics) otherwise Sam Hauser would be the best player on the Celtics right now and a top 3 MVP candidate alongside Jokic and Curry.

Yes of course, both datasets are important to contextualize each other. I just think that the raw averages are much more useful than the melting pot metrics

[VanWest82]

Presumably, we can all agree that it isn't that close offensively? Like, if they switched teams and Tatum was asked to do everything on a nightly basis, does anyone here believe he'd be able to replicate the carry job Luka's currently doing?

Ok, so let's talk about defense where Tatum is presumably making up a bunch of ground. Who's he guarding?

Spoiler:

For the most part, he isn't guarding anyone. Demar torched him but outside of that it's mostly 3rd-5th options. Brown, Smart, White, and Horford are taking all the hard assignments. Those guys are doing the heavy lifting defensively.

I think most would agree Tatum is a much better defender than Luka, but given his role he isn't a difference maker on that end. Interestingly, Celtics are -5 pts per 100 better defensively with Tatum on the bench.

[ty 4191]

Tatum dominates Luka in impact stats. The stats posted above were basically just different iterations of the box score. Metrics like PER and BPM provide zero analytical value IMO... At that point we might as well reference the actual box numbers which at least have digestible meaning instead of being an arbitrary jumbled mess

Which impact metrics? And can you provide links and data? Thank you!

[VanWest82]

Tatum dominates Luka in impact stats. The stats posted above were basically just different iterations of the box score. Metrics like PER and BPM provide zero analytical value IMO... At that point we might as well reference the actual box numbers which at least have digestible meaning instead of being an arbitrary jumbled mess

Which impact metrics? And can you provide links and data? Thank you!

Here's arguably the best impact stat out there. Sure doesn't seem like Tatum is "dominating"

Edit: I see this was already posted above. It's far from just being a "box score" stat though. It's more like tracking cameras + APM. But the main thing is there just doesn't appear to be much evidence of Tatum being an impact defender in large part because that's not his role. With Luka actually being in shape this year and not sucking on D, the impact (not talent) difference on that side of the ball isn't enough to make up for the gap on offense.