RealGM

I searched Google and could only find a lowest-ranking thread for Bird.

What if you value 3-4-5-year stretches, how cutting edge he was as a ballhandler, passer, and shooter at his size/position, and overall shooting versatility? He could be as high as 4th. Maybe 3rd.

I had him 8th last time around but that's already on the higher side. 6th or 7th (over Wilt and Shaq) seem arguable enough at least so while I probably won't have it like that myself it's not unreasonable to me.

4 and 5 are where the problems kick in. Those spots on my list are occupied by Russell and Duncan. Funny enough on most more mainstream/casual GOAT lists it's even pretty common for Bird to be ranked ahead of them but I really struggle to come up with arguments that don't feel cheap. Maybe my opinion is too influenced by being chronically on RealGM but the only real "argument" for Bird over Duncan is 3 v 2 MVPs imo, while for Russell you have to straight up dismiss the 60s as a bunch of milkmen and plumbers running around or completely disregard defense/hyperfocus on offense. I'm not someone who looks at how well someone shoots and passes as a GOAT measure, the only thing that matters is how much a player can impact a game.

For my criteria and my opinions on bird + other players I have him in the 11-12 range I could maybe see him at 10 but if you’re low on Russell’s peak and/or high on bird’s or just don’t value longevity as much as peak then I could possibly see him at 9

i think wilt and bill are pretty much interchangeable but I’m not sure if I could see bird over wilt since wilt has better longevity and I don’t think bird peaked higher. Maybe if you’re really high on bird’s peak and low on wilt’s I could see bird being higher but probably not by that much and I doubt it would be enough to get over the longevity gap so you’d have to have a pretty heavy peak preference.

So I’ll go absolute max of 8

Top 10 somewhere, sure. Top 5, his longevity compared to the other ATG and his defensive weaknesses when playing (if the Celtics had kept him at PF, this wouldn't be nearly as much of a discussion) leave him pretty clearly short.

I wouldn't go higher than 10.

Longevity and durability kills bird for me in career comparisions to other top 10 players

I cannot see his case over lebron,kareem,russel,jordan,duncan,wilt, hakeem, shaq because of that so as high as i would go is 9th

For anyone going higher than like 7th or 8th, i’d like to know how exactly you reconcile his shaky playoff performances compared to other guys generally considered top 10. Which don’t get me wrong, I think he still had a lot of impact even when he had trouble scoring but is there any argument for him as a top 5 playoff performer? I don’t see it.

Top three.

Greatest all around player to ever lace’em up.

For those who haven’t seen the case be made.

No-more-rings wrote:For anyone going higher than like 7th or 8th, i’d like to know how exactly you reconcile his shaky playoff performances compared to other guys generally considered top 10. Which don’t get me wrong, I think he still had a lot of impact even when he had trouble scoring but is there any argument for him as a top 5 playoff performer? I don’t see it.

Is Magic a top 5 playoff performer?

Using Backpicks and BBRef, I found the following; I thought it could be helpful to frame things, with league percentile rankings, (where available):

Regular Season:
Bird: 23.8 IA PTS/75 (89th percentile), rTS%: +2.9 (71st%), Passer Rating: 88th%, dRTG: 101, DWS: 48.8, DBPM: 1.9
Magic: 19.2 IA PTS/75 (67th percentile), rTS%: +6.9 (93rd%), Passer Rating: 99th%, dRTG: 104, DWS: 36.2, DBPM: 1.6

Playoffs:
Bird: 21.6 IA PTS/75 (80th percentile), rTS%: +1.4% (55th%), Passer Rating (87th%), dRTG: 103, DWS: 10.6, DBPM: 1.6
Magic: 17.8 IA PTS/75 (60th percentile), rTS: +8.9 (75th%), Passer Rating (99th%), dRTG: 106, DWS: 8.2, DBPM: 1.6

The bottom line is, Top 5 Finishes in MVP Voting and MVP's during the 1980's:

--Magic Johnson: 89(won), 88(3), 87(won), 86(3), 85(2), 84(3), 83(3) = 7 top 5 finishes (2 MVPs) (one 2nd place finish)

--Larry Bird: 88(2), 87(3), 86(won), 85(won), 84(won), 83(2), 82(2), 81(2), 80(4) = 9 top 5 finishes (3 MVPs) (four 2nd place finishes)

ty 4191 wrote:

No-more-rings wrote:For anyone going higher than like 7th or 8th, i’d like to know how exactly you reconcile his shaky playoff performances compared to other guys generally considered top 10. Which don’t get me wrong, I think he still had a lot of impact even when he had trouble scoring but is there any argument for him as a top 5 playoff performer? I don’t see it.

Is Magic a top 5 playoff performer?

No, for me it’s probably Jordan, Lebron, Hakeem, Kareem and Duncan in some order. Wilt/Shaq/Russell a tad below. Magic is a one way player, it’s hard to get much higher than he is based on that. You can maybe throw him in the bottom of 2nd tier though.

6th highest possible, and that's where I have him

ty 4191 wrote:Is Magic a top 5 playoff performer?

He has a better argument than Bird, probably even if we hone in on specific ranges like what OP asked.

SHAQ32 wrote:I searched Google and could only find a lowest-ranking thread for Bird.

What if you value 3-4-5-year stretches, how cutting edge he was as a ballhandler, passer, and shooter at his size/position, and overall shooting versatility? He could be as high as 4th. Maybe 3rd.

No, even if we pretended that a “career” was any range of games shy of 900 or shy of twelve “complete” seasons, I would not say Bird stacks up uniquely well as an extended postseason prime. You would need to be pretty low on the all-time bigs and Magic to get there. And the smaller you make the range, the more quickly Curry enters in as a consideration too.

AEnigma wrote:

ty 4191 wrote:Is Magic a top 5 playoff performer?

He has a better argument than Bird, probably even if we hone in on specific ranges like what OP asked.

What did Magic do better than Bird, in your estimation, while Bird was healthy? 1979-1980 through 1987-1988?

ty 4191 wrote:

AEnigma wrote:

ty 4191 wrote:Is Magic a top 5 playoff performer?

He has a better argument than Bird, probably even if we hone in on specific ranges like what OP asked.

What did Magic do better than Bird, in your estimation, while Bird was healthy? 1979-1980 through 1987-1988?

This question gets even more difficult when you consider opponent context: Magic was in the easier conference by far, and his Finals routes were usually a clear level below Bird's in difficulty (which also allowed Magic to be more rested by the time he got to the finals to face Bird).

ty 4191 wrote:

AEnigma wrote:

ty 4191 wrote:Is Magic a top 5 playoff performer?

He has a better argument than Bird, probably even if we hone in on specific ranges like what OP asked.

What did Magic do better than Bird, in your estimation, while Bird was healthy? 1979-1980 through 1987-1988?

Perform against equal opponents.

• In 1980 (against the 76ers) Magic put up 21.5/11.6/8.7 on 57.3 field goal percentage, versus Bird’s 22.2/13.8/3.2 on 44.0 field goal percentage / 48.2% true shooting;
• In 1981 (against that 40-42 Rockets team), Magic (in three games) put up 17.0/13.7/7.0 on 38.8 field goal percentage, versus Bird’s aforementioned 15.3/15.3/7.0 on 41.9 field goal percentage;
• In 1982 (again against the 76ers), Magic put up 16.2/10.8/8 on 53.3 field goal percentage, versus Bird’s 18.3/14.1/7.3 on 41.2 field goal percentage / 44.9% true shooting
• In 1984 (against each other), Magic put up 18.0/7.7/13.6 on 61.2% true shooting, versus Bird’s 27.4/14.0/3.6 on 59.5% true shooting;
• In 1985 (again against each other), Magic put up on 18.3/6.8/14.0 on 56.9% true shooting, versus Bird’s 23.8/8.8/5.0 on 52.7% true shooting;
• In 1986 (against the new Rockets), Magic put up 22.2/6.8/16.2(!!) on 60.2% true shooting, versus Bird’s 24.0/9.7/9.5 on 57.8% true shooting;
• In 1987 (once more against each other), Magic put up 26.2/8.0/13.0 on 59.0% true shooting, versus Bird’s 24.2/10.0/5.5 on 53.4% true shooting;
• And in 1988 (against the Pistons), Magic put up 21.1/5.7/13.0 on 67.6% true shooting, versus Bird’s 19.8/12.2/6.8 on 44.8% true shooting.

I would take Magic in 1980, 1982, 1987, and 1988, Bird in 1981 (Magic sets a low bar), and a draw in 1984-86 that probably on balance leans toward Magic. Add in Bird being dreadful in the 1983 postseason, and yeah, I feel pretty comfortable about who I trust to captain my team.

EDIT: Oh look at that, I unintentionally managed to anticipate DraymondGold, but I suppose I did fail to consider how all advantages can ultimately just be dismissed by “rest”.

AEnigma wrote:

ty 4191 wrote:

AEnigma wrote:He has a better argument than Bird, probably even if we hone in on specific ranges like what OP asked.

What did Magic do better than Bird, in your estimation, while Bird was healthy? 1979-1980 through 1987-1988?

Perform against equal opponents.

• In 1980 (against the 76ers) Magic put up 21.5/11.6/8.7 on 57.3 field goal percentage, versus Bird’s 22.2/13.8/3.2 on 44.0 field goal percentage / 48.2% true shooting;
• In 1981 (against that 40-42 Rockets team), Magic (in three games) put up 17.0/13.7/7.0 on 38.8 field goal percentage, versus Bird’s aforementioned 15.3/15.3/7.0 on 41.9 field goal percentage;
• In 1982 (again against the 76ers), Magic put up 16.2/10.8/8 on 53.3 field goal percentage, versus Bird’s 18.3/14.1/7.3 on 41.2 field goal percentage / 44.9% true shooting
• In 1984 (against each other), Magic put up 18.0/7.7/13.6 on 61.2% true shooting, versus Bird’s 27.4/14.0/3.6 on 59.5% true shooting;
• In 1985 (again against each other), Magic put up on 18.3/6.8/14.0 on 56.9% true shooting, versus Bird’s 23.8/8.8/5.0 on 52.7% true shooting;
• In 1986 (against the new Rockets), Magic put up 22.2/6.8/16.2(!!) on 60.2% true shooting, versus Bird’s 24.0/9.7/9.5 on 57.8% true shooting;
• In 1987 (once more against each other), Magic put up 26.2/8.0/13.0 on 59.0% true shooting, versus Bird’s 24.2/10.0/5.5 on 53.4% true shooting;
• And in 1988 (against the Pistons), Magic put up 21.1/5.7/13.0 on 67.6% true shooting, versus Bird’s 19.8/12.2/6.8 on 44.8% true shooting.

I would take Magic in 1980, 1982, 1987, and 1988, Bird in 1981 (Magic sets a low bar), and a draw in 1984-86 that probably on balance leans toward Magic. Add in Bird being dreadful in the 1983 postseason, and yeah, I feel pretty comfortable about who I trust to captain my team.

Welp, just looking at box-score scoring/assists/rebounds/true-shooting with no deeper statistical analysis, film analysis, consideration of off-ball value, consideration of defensive attention, or consideration of Bird's clear defensive advantage definitely settles it

EDIT: Oh look at that, I unintentionally managed to anticipate DraymondGold, but I suppose I did fail to consider how all advantages can ultimately just be dismissed by “rest”.

Or, alternatively, you could not straw-man your opponents for not knowing the post you were going to make but hadn't made yet Opponent difficulty is a valid concern, whether you like it or not. Looking at like-opponents is a good start, but just posting the 3 most basic box stats far from settles it. Come on, you know this...

SNPA wrote:For those who haven’t seen the case be made.

Watch on YouTube

The question, though isn't has someone "made the case" because, by that definition, someone could make a case for anyone. It's can they make a good case. An internally consistent case. A credible case. Maybe the video outlines an interally consistent case as to how one can get him above all the others. I suspect it's a more general collection of praise.

And fwiw, without wanting to put too much in it, the content creator is willing to "make the case" that the (6.24 SRS) 1989 Detroit Pistons were the greatest team which seems ... not to bode well for credibility.

DraymondGold wrote:

AEnigma wrote:

ty 4191 wrote:What did Magic do better than Bird, in your estimation, while Bird was healthy? 1979-1980 through 1987-1988?

Perform against equal opponents.

• In 1980 (against the 76ers) Magic put up 21.5/11.6/8.7 on 57.3 field goal percentage, versus Bird’s 22.2/13.8/3.2 on 44.0 field goal percentage / 48.2% true shooting;
• In 1981 (against that 40-42 Rockets team), Magic (in three games) put up 17.0/13.7/7.0 on 38.8 field goal percentage, versus Bird’s aforementioned 15.3/15.3/7.0 on 41.9 field goal percentage;
• In 1982 (again against the 76ers), Magic put up 16.2/10.8/8 on 53.3 field goal percentage, versus Bird’s 18.3/14.1/7.3 on 41.2 field goal percentage / 44.9% true shooting
• In 1984 (against each other), Magic put up 18.0/7.7/13.6 on 61.2% true shooting, versus Bird’s 27.4/14.0/3.6 on 59.5% true shooting;
• In 1985 (again against each other), Magic put up on 18.3/6.8/14.0 on 56.9% true shooting, versus Bird’s 23.8/8.8/5.0 on 52.7% true shooting;
• In 1986 (against the new Rockets), Magic put up 22.2/6.8/16.2(!!) on 60.2% true shooting, versus Bird’s 24.0/9.7/9.5 on 57.8% true shooting;
• In 1987 (once more against each other), Magic put up 26.2/8.0/13.0 on 59.0% true shooting, versus Bird’s 24.2/10.0/5.5 on 53.4% true shooting;
• And in 1988 (against the Pistons), Magic put up 21.1/5.7/13.0 on 67.6% true shooting, versus Bird’s 19.8/12.2/6.8 on 44.8% true shooting.

I would take Magic in 1980, 1982, 1987, and 1988, Bird in 1981 (Magic sets a low bar), and a draw in 1984-86 that probably on balance leans toward Magic. Add in Bird being dreadful in the 1983 postseason, and yeah, I feel pretty comfortable about who I trust to captain my team.

Welp, just looking at box-score scoring/assists/rebounds/true-shooting with no deeper statistical analysis,

Ooh, should I quickly do a game of plus/minus and just extrapolate that?

But yes, I could have mentioned that Magic’s teams more reliably had better offensive ratings and net ratings in that sample.

consideration of off-ball value,

True, I forgot to give a “port” value.

consideration of defensive attention

Oh yes, blessed Magic never saw that playing with Kareem and later Worthy, not like Bird playing alongside Tiny and Maxwell and/or Parish and McHale.

or consideration of Bird's clear defensive advantage definitely settles it

Ah, I forgot about Bird the perpetual game-swinging defensive maestro, my mistake.

Fair criticism of 1982 and also probably 1986, although in 1986 I do not think Magic was particularly responsible for how poorly the Lakers performed on that end or that Bird was particularly responsible for how well the Celtics performed. As a whole, though, no, I do not assess Bird has being worth more defensively by enough to offset those offensive divisions.

EDIT: Oh look at that, I unintentionally managed to anticipate DraymondGold, but I suppose I did fail to consider how all advantages can ultimately just be dismissed by “rest”.

Or, alternatively, you could not straw-man your opponents for not knowing the post you were going to make but hadn't made yet

More poor reading and sudden projection, you really need to get out of that habit.

There is no strawman. You speculated that opponent differences and rest could explain the disparities. I had the former ready but did not touch on rest, because I see it as an at best marginal complaint in most situations.

Opponent difficulty is a valid concern, whether you like it or not.

It is if you have an idea of the extent it made a difference.

Looking at like-opponents is a good start, but just posting the 3 most basic box stats far from settles it. Come on, you know this...

Where did I say it settles it? I know that nothing is settled without plus/minus.

AEnigma wrote:Where did I say it settles it? I know that nothing is settled without plus/minus.

DraymondGold wrote: This question gets even more difficult when you consider opponent context: Magic was in the easier conference by far, and his Finals routes were usually a clear level below Bird's in difficulty (which also allowed Magic to be more rested by the time he got to the finals to face Bird).

Are you going to address Conference/Division strength, AEnigma?

https://www.celticsblog.com/2020/5/17/21258281/what-if-the-celtics-and-lakers-had-switched-conferences-in-the-1980s

The Western Conference had a winning percentage of .534 against the East during the 1980's.

--Bird played 758 games against the East and 303 games against the West in his career.

--Magic played 791 games against the West and 305 against the East in his career.

The Atlantic Division had a .553 winning percentage against the Pacific Division 1979-1980 through 1988-1989.

--Bird played 315 career games vs. the Atlantic Division. Only 161 against the Pacific Division.

--Magic played 396 games vs. the Pacific Division. Only 149 against Atlantic Division teams.

Strength of competition is paramount in sports. Draymond Gold is spot on, here.

Bird had it much, much tougher in the regular season, and playoffs, in the 80's, try to get/getting to the Finals.