What’s the highest and lowest reasonable ranking for Giannis’ peak?

[No-more-rings]

Giannis went 13th in our peaks project just a few months ago.

I guess how much room do you see to argue above and below that number?

[Colbinii]

Nothing Above, 15-20 below.

[DraymondGold]

Nothing Above, 15-20 below.

By 15-20 below, I'm assuming you mean he could have been voted in at slot 15-20 (rather than 15-20 lower than he already was, which seems way too low all the way down at #28-#33)?

I tend to agree with those bounds. I can't really see him any higher, while the lower bound is probably ~20ish. I could at least see arguments for a few individual players to be taken above him (e.g. KD/Dirk), but that would only get him down to ~21/22ish, which isn't significantly lower than 20.

[Colbinii]

Nothing Above, 15-20 below.

By 15-20 below, I'm assuming you mean he could have been voted in at slot 15-20 (rather than 15-20 lower than he already was, which seems way too low all the way down at #28-#33)?

I tend to agree with those bounds. I can't really see him any higher, while the lower bound is probably ~20ish. I could at least see arguments for a few individual players to be taken above him (e.g. KD/Dirk), but that would only get him down to ~21/22ish, which isn't significantly lower than 20.

Nope--I mean 15-20 spots below, "all the way down to #28-#33" is a weird way of saying "A Top 30 peak versus Top 15 Peak", which really isn't "all the way down" in any capacity.

I can see 2020 Anthony Davis having a higher peak, same with Steve Nash, Chris Paul and James Harden.

[Djoker]

I think he may have a case for GOAT or near GOAT-tier peak. Put his numbers side-by-side those of Shaq for instance and you're bound to be surprised how close they are and Giannis is the better defensive presence. He also has very strong impact signals and generally checks all the boxes.

[SHAQ32]

Probably lower than others. The gist of it revolves around inflated numbers and portability.

[OhayoKD]

Probably lower than others. The gist of it revolves around inflated numbers and portability.

I mean, there's also an unpolished Giannis taking a modest cast to 70 wins, doing everything(def, playmaking, scoring) as the bucks pushed a juggernaut(60 wins+kawhi, nurse, and gasol) to the limit in his first MVP year, and the polished version pulling off a rare one-star title win before nearly beating a 60 win team single-handedly.

Giannis is comfortably one of the very best floor-raisers and now seems to have garnered impressive playoff resiliency over the last 2 seasons. He's also doing all this in the most talented and sophisticated iteration of the nba where more than a half a dozen bird/kd lvl talents are in their prime simultaneously.

Nothing Above, 15-20 below.

Seems like there's very little distinction between your personal ranking of Giannis and what a "reasonable" ranking would look like.

Assuming we don't think russell is the undisputed goat, assessing Giannis in a vacuum gives him a reasonable cieling of maybe a goat tier talent. Even going purely "relative-to-era", nigh unrivalled(historically) post-season and regular season impact on a team that is neither optimally coached or particularly well-fitting(horrible playoff shooting for a contender season after season) should make a top 10 appraisal "reasonable". Especially if we consider placing 2020 AD(who relies on us ignoring the regular season) or KD(who needed much better help to produce similar results) above sensible.

[SHAQ32]

Probably lower than others. The gist of it revolves around inflated numbers and portability.

Giannis is also doing all this in the most talented and sophisticated iteration of the nba where more than a half a dozen bird/kd lvl talents are in their prime simultaneously.

The same iteration of the NBA where 30-point blowouts happen seemingly every night.

[DraymondGold]

Nothing Above, 15-20 below.

By 15-20 below, I'm assuming you mean he could have been voted in at slot 15-20 (rather than 15-20 lower than he already was, which seems way too low all the way down at #28-#33)?

I tend to agree with those bounds. I can't really see him any higher, while the lower bound is probably ~20ish. I could at least see arguments for a few individual players to be taken above him (e.g. KD/Dirk), but that would only get him down to ~21/22ish, which isn't significantly lower than 20.

Nope--I mean 15-20 spots below, "all the way down to #28-#33" is a weird way of saying "A Top 30 peak versus Top 15 Peak", which really isn't "all the way down" in any capacity.

I can see 2020 Anthony Davis having a higher peak, same with Steve Nash, Chris Paul and James Harden.

Dang, where were you when I was arguing #13 was too high in the Greatest Peaks project! And people thought I was crazy for ranking him ~20ish Well, glad to see I'm not alone. In truth, I was being a bit conservative with my lower end (i.e. a bit high on my low end) just to avoid re-treading all the crap people threw when I argued against him in greatest peaks.

Personally, I'd have trouble arguing Harden over him, but I guess I could see high-end argument for AD/Nash/Paul. What makes you lower on Giannis than others / higher on those other players?

Probably lower than others. The gist of it revolves around inflated numbers and portability.

I mean, there's also an unpolished Giannis taking a modest cast to 70 wins, doing everything(def, playmaking, scoring) as the bucks pushed a juggernaut(60 wins+kawhi, nurse, and gasol) to the limit in his first MVP year, and the polished version pulling off a rare one-star title win before nearly beating a 60 win team single-handedly.

Giannis is comfortably one of the very best floor-raisers and now seems to have garnered impressive playoff resiliency over the last 2 seasons. He's also doing all this in the most talented and sophisticated iteration of the nba where more than a half a dozen bird/kd lvl talents are in their prime simultaneously.

... What's this about Giannis taking a team to 70 wins? The modern Bucks have never had more than 60 wins, in either record or pace (in shortened seasons). A 60-win pace is great (and certainly in the tier of championship-level teams), but it's far from game-breaking or unique among all time greats... ~80 teams have won 60 games in NBA history. What makes this one of the best floor-raisers?

If you add the context that, among those upper level teams, the Bucks were unusually successful against worse teams and unusually unsuccessful against better ones (per more detailed SRS studies), and it doesn't seem like the Bucks as a whole have unusually impressive resilience. For Giannis himself, I talked in the greatest peaks how his scoring efficiency and volume declines more than almost any other star in the ~Top 15 tier. What makes Giannis so uniquely resilient?

Edit: re- the rare one-star title win, he did have costars in Middleton/Holiday who could each be argued as All-star level, and Lopez is a pretty perfect-fitting big to pair with him. I absolutely agree that his series against the Suns was absolutely impressive, but it's also pretty clearly his single best series ever, and I think there's some separation before you get to the next series. Personally, I have trouble judging a player based solely on their single best series ever, at least not without qualifiers.

Are there any other series as impressive as the 21 Suns? You could argue the ECF on a per-game basis that year (I might), but he also was injured and missed time then. His Nets series that year was definitely not as impressive... the Bucks actually got outscored that series, and Giannis' decision making mistakes (3 chucking) and poor shooting (free throws and 3 point shots) definitely contributed to this. In 2022, his series against the Celtics showed a pretty massive decline offensively; in 2020, he also showed a relatively large decline offensively (with injury potentially contributing) though you could argue his defense was resilient (I would), and the same offensive decline appears in 2019.

To me, the argument for Giannis as a near-GOAT playoff performer relies both on his his defensive resilience and on arguing that his 21/22 years were coasting defensively in the regular season. I have a hard time saying his offense is as resilient, given he showed traces of offensive decline in 19, 20, 22, and even the earlier parts of 21. Do you have any evidence to suggest Giannis' near-GOAT? I'd love to see evidence of the coasting defense in particular

Nothing Above, 15-20 below.

Seems like there's very little distinction between your personal ranking of Giannis and what a "reasonable" ranking would look like.

Assuming we don't think russell is the undisputed goat, assessing Giannis in a vacuum gives him a reasonable cieling of maybe a goat tier talent. Even going purely "relative-to-era", nigh unrivalled(historically) post-season and regular season impact on a team that is neither optimally coached or particularly well-fitting(horrible playoff shooting for a contender season after season) should make a top 10 appraisal "reasonable". Especially if we consider placing 2020 AD(who relies on us ignoring the regular season) or KD(who needed much better help to produce similar results) above sensible.

Not sure what makes this "nigh unrivaled (historically) post-season and regular season impact". Do you have any evidence to support this?

[OhayoKD]

Probably lower than others. The gist of it revolves around inflated numbers and portability.

Giannis is also doing all this in the most talented and sophisticated iteration of the nba where more than a half a dozen bird/kd lvl talents are in their prime simultaneously.

The same iteration of the NBA where 30-point blowouts happen seemingly every night.

Yes, three-point shooting generates more variance, which makes holistic dominance harder. Yet Giannis has hard-carried the bucks to consistent contention, a very rare type of title, and multiple historically great regular seasons with relatively limited help compared to his historical peers. What he's done with the Bucks is something that Shaq(#3 peak in the peaks project), Jordan, (#1 peak in the peaks project) was unable to replicate without significantly better support.

I don't think Giannis needs the box-score here to look impressive. He's been incredibly successful with a team which really shouldn't be that successful, and its a testament to his own, nigh unrivalled combination of skills. Frankly suggesting a two-way big is being overrated because of inflated numbers doesn't make sense. Defense doesn't show up well in the box-score. Something which hurt Giannis's reputation massively prior to 2021.

If we're still not impressed, maybe Giannis should have just turned tail and joined Luka and Dallas and cruised to a bunch of easy championships? If we aren't going to give Giannis his due for handling an unusual degree of adversity, then we really shouldn't complain when superstars go and join 73 win teams.

[MyUniBroDavis]

I’m not sure about near GOAT tier, but 5-25 probably

2020 Giannis is up there with the best regular seasons on a per minute basis I’d think, it gets a bit under hyped, but his defense was absurd, I feel it gets rated as a typical DPOY type of season but you /could/ make arguments of it being one of the top seasons of from 2000-2022

If you’re of the argument that 2021 and 2022 Giannis are 2020 Giannis defensively ish in the playoffs with a better offensive game you can argue him quite high, esp once we get into criteria and stuff like that

You can argue quite low based on other things as well

[OhayoKD]

I’m not sure about near GOAT tier, but 5-25 probably

2020 Giannis is up there with the best regular seasons on a per minute basis I’d think, it gets a bit under hyped, but his defense was absurd, I feel it gets rated as a typical DPOY type of season but you /could/ make arguments of it being one of the top seasons of from 2000-2022

If you’re of the argument that 2021 and 2022 Giannis are 2020 Giannis defensively ish in the playoffs with a better offensive game you can argue him quite high, esp once we get into criteria and stuff like that

You can argue quite low based on other things as well

the goat tier case is basically that you assume a bigger league talent gap, and project the 2020 regular season onto playoff giannis from 2021 and 2022. I wouldn't make it personally, but I think it's pretty reasonable.

Honestly, in a vacuum, its not hard for me to see him as signifcantly better than shaq, kg or duncan. Based on relative to era stuff, I see shaq and kg as top 10 lvl with a case for 5, and Duncan as a top 5 peak with a case for 1. Era-relative I see giannis at the 9-15 range, but going the way you seem to like ranking players, I'd have Giannis pretty close to the top.

Off course that 9-15 evaluation is largely apm based. I could see him being a lebron/hakeem/kareem/russell esque outlier with the pure stuff.

[rk2023]

I could see it arguably cracking fringe-top ten. Low-balling would place it near 20 for me, but not quite lower.