Who's your early season pick for mvp

[Narigo]

I got Jokic but they most likely are not going to give it to him this season?

[Dutchball97]

Jokic is 3rd in total +-, topping the boxscore stats and high up in the composite stats like EPM and RAPTOR as well, while having a good team record. He ticks the most boxes out of anyone imo.

Next up is Tatum. Leads the league in +-, while also being the clear best player on the best team in the league. It's just that his boxscore production is relatively low for a MVP. The last time someone won MVP without being top 3 in BPM was 2008 when Kobe was 7th in the stat, Tatum is currently tied for the 16th best BPM in the league.

[AEnigma]

I would have Ja and maybe even Zion above Durant (and Davis; no one is winning MVP outside the playoffs lol). I know everyone is gushing about the Nets’ recent 9-1 streak, but the best team they have beaten in that streak is… the Blazers? And second best at this point legitimately might be the Magic. They have a middling SRS because most of these wins — again, over relatively weak opposition — have been fringe playoff teams at best. They have games against the Bucks and Cavaliers coming up; maybe if they win both I might take them a bit seriously, but for now, people are getting waaaaay too caught up in superficialities.

Their bench has been decent so it is not even like Durant is entirely carrying them. At least, not to the level of the other candidates, who are generating much better on-court results while also being dramatically more important to their teams.

[capfan33]

I would have Ja and maybe even Zion above Durant (and Davis; no one is winning MVP outside the playoffs lol). I know everyone is gushing about the Nets’ recent 9-1 streak, but the best team they have beaten in that streak is… the Blazers? And second best at this point legitimately might be the Magic. They have a middling SRS because most of these wins — again, over relatively weak opposition — have been fringe playoff teams at best. They have games against the Bucks and Cavaliers coming up; maybe if they win both I might take them a bit seriously, but for now, people are getting waaaaay too caught up in superficialities.

Their bench has been decent so it is not even like Durant is entirely carrying them. At least, not to the level of the other candidates, who are generating much better on-court results while also being dramatically more important to their teams.

Bit off-topic, but has Durant actually been playing better this year than the past 2 years, everyone on Reddit's hyping him up but I've always been a skeptic lol.

[ty 4191]

Jokic.

Esp with Steph out for 2+ weeks (shoulder), AD out for at least a month (foot), Giannis playing very poorly by his standards for several weeks, Embiid only semi-healthy (as always), and Luka day to day, it's gotta be...

Jokic, once again. At least, at this point. He's leading in BPM, PER, WS/48, WS. If he hadn't missed 3 games with COVID, he'd be leading in everything box score based.

Right there in RAPM and EPM, also.

Every year, I think he can't get better offensively, and every year, he proves me wrong, somehow.

[No-more-rings]

Sometimes i’m not even sure what the voters really want or look for. It used to be pretty imperative that a player gets like a top 2-3 seed, but recent selections like 2017 Westbrook and 2022 Jokic getting it as the 6th seed make me wonder if they’re starting to buck that trend more in favor of stats. Others are much less complicated, best record in the league, best stats it’s an easy choice normally.

Considering Jokic got the last 2 it makes me think there will be some voter fatigue with it, players almost never win 3 mvps in a row. As far as I know only Bird, Wilt and Russell have done that.

I think Curry and KD’s time has probably come and gone for mvps, even though they’re playing great. It’s definitely possible they just give it to Jokic again anyway, I mean his numbers are just off the charts right now. Giannis’s advanced numbers are down a good bit compared to when he won mvps, and he seems less likely to win this year compared to others. Jokic will get some pushback, but he’s still probably the favorite as of now but I can also see them wanting to go with someone new and pick Jayson Tatum.

[OhayoKD]

Jokic winning 3 straight without a ring would be interesting

[AEnigma]

I would have Ja and maybe even Zion above Durant (and Davis; no one is winning MVP outside the playoffs lol). I know everyone is gushing about the Nets’ recent 9-1 streak, but the best team they have beaten in that streak is… the Blazers? And second best at this point legitimately might be the Magic. They have a middling SRS because most of these wins — again, over relatively weak opposition — have been fringe playoff teams at best. They have games against the Bucks and Cavaliers coming up; maybe if they win both I might take them a bit seriously, but for now, people are getting waaaaay too caught up in superficialities.

Their bench has been decent so it is not even like Durant is entirely carrying them. At least, not to the level of the other candidates, who are generating much better on-court results while also being dramatically more important to their teams.

Bit off-topic, but has Durant actually been playing better this year than the past 2 years, everyone on Reddit's hyping him up but I've always been a skeptic lol.

Reddit probably exaggerates based on his role. His mid-range scoring has been obscene, no denying that; otherwise, he is pretty much the same. Claxton suits him, but when Claxton sits Durant is not offering much defensively. If they pick up a decent backup for Claxton then I might take them a little more seriously.

[Cavsfansince84]

I am getting more firmly on board with Jokic deserving another if they are in 53+ win territory. Giannis has fallen off a bit in recent weeks. Tatum is in there too obviously and will probably actually win if the Celtics run away from the rest of the east but that's not a given.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Jokic would be first, with Luka being the clear 2nd to me.

[AEnigma]

I thought Curry basically gatekept Luka from serious consideration, but with Curry’s injury, Luka suddenly receives the full backing of the “top tier player on low seeded team” bloc.

Tough to argue guys like Ja or Zion are actually better than Luka, and even Tatum’s comparative advantage is tenuous and/or divisive, so could see Luka quickly building steam if the Mavericks go on a bit of a run and break into the top six (by rule, I think voters as a collective will almost always avoid a play-in team).

[Gooner]

Kevin Durant. His efficiency is incredible. Best player in the game.

[70sFan]

Kevin Durant. His efficiency is incredible. Best player in the game.

Jokic is more efficient than Durant, while being significantly better passer and rebounder as well.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

Sometimes i’m not even sure what the voters really want or look for. It used to be pretty imperative that a player gets like a top 2-3 seed, but recent selections like 2017 Westbrook and 2022 Jokic getting it as the 6th seed make me wonder if they’re starting to buck that trend more in favor of stats. Others are much less complicated, best record in the league, best stats it’s an easy choice normally.

I think team success is still a key factor, but you need really strong candidates in those teams.
names like Booker last year are not getting traction, just like someone like Billups didn't in 2006.
I think Tatum is a realistic name, but the Celtics must run away with the best record for it to be a deciding factor, it doesn't work if everyone is too close.

[Statlanta]

I think voters will give it to Tatum. The media will be hard pressed to give the award to someone who hasn’t won the Conference Finals.

I believe Jokic is the best player however.

[JLei]

I think voters will give it to Tatum. The media will be hard pressed to give the award to someone who hasn’t won the Conference Finals.

I believe Jokic is the best player however.

They will want to but hopefully smarter heads in the media will influence it the right way so we don't get another Derrick Rose situation. Best player on the team with best record vs the guy who should win it (Lebron) but they really don't want to give it to him due to whatever circumstances. And of course it was a weak Lebron year but he did lead the league in basically everything (PER, BPM, VORP, WS etc.) while being a top tier defender.

And that's no disrespect to Tatum who has been awesome this year. All-NBA first team/ MVP ballot level. But he shouldn't be winning it over Jokic/ Luka if they play enough games.

[SeattleJazzFan]

gun to my head, giannis. kd gaining as his team keeps winning on his back. jokic is probably #3 (actually 1c). i could give it to any of those three and feel fine about it. luka is obviously incredibly valuable to his team, but with them sitting at .500, i have him a tier below.

[Dr Positivity]

Predicted play the rest of the year

- Memphis dominates, gets best record in the league. Suns pick it up again. Nuggets are more of a 4th-6th seed team.

- Heat are hottest team in the east. Nets have some injuries but still play ok during them. Bucks, Cavs play about the same, Bucks don't need to push themselves that much in reg season. Celtics play around the same as Bucks and Cavs. The 76ers recent wins is a mirage and they end up continuing lukewarm season.

I think Morant, Booker and Mitchell are reaches for MVP. Tatum MVP case has already peaked. If Doncic can get the Mavs to 2022 Nuggets level season he wins but not sure he can. Durant probably loses out when he misses games.

Winner: Giannis - he has some crazy month and Bucks win the East to get him 3rd MVP.

[rk2023]

My pick would be Nikola Jokic, I am not one who's too fixated on team record, narratives, and what not - but rather how valuable a player is for their situation. I think that in the aforementioned regard, Jokic beats the field this season while being a very formidable choice from a skillset/production standpoint.

Some impact metrics showcasing how good Jokic has been:

7.5 AuPM/game (1st in the league, T-3rd [16 Curry] all-time)
14.2 RAPTOR (1st)
9.6 O-RAPTOR (2nd)
7.91 RPM (3rd)
8.0 DunksandThrees EPM (T-1st)
.300 WS/48 (1st)

Per game, Jokic doesn't have these gaudy box stats.. but saying his game is affective would be quite the understatement.
25.2 10.9 9.0 1.5 0.7

- 62.1% FG (132 FG+)
- 64.8% eFG (120 eFG+)
- 69.2% TS (+11.7 > relative to league average)

As a scorer, a whopping ~70% of his shots come within 0-10 feet, what's just obscene is on shots from 3-10 (40% of his diet), Jokic is currently shooting 65% - numbers pretty similar to what 70s-fan tracked apex Kareem in that range back during the peaks project. He's truly a battering ram at the basket, with phenomenal touch to counter.

Passing/Playmaking wise, he remains one of the league's best passers all-time (a level seen by the likes of Bird, Magic, LBJ) and the nuggets can run some pretty stellar motion offense with Jokic serving as a passing-hub and with the post-area attention he commands as a scorer. Currently posting a 14.5 Box Creation (6th in the league) with a pristine 9.5 Passer Rating.

These nuances mentioned above, and probably signaled with Jokic's impact metrics, are a reason why Denver's offensive rating swings from a 125.12 -> 107.86 with Jokic on vs. off (defense swings from 114.34 -> 121.48 to give him a total +24.4 on/off with low leverage minutes filtered - akin to 2009 LBJ). Part of this is influenced by rotations and what not, but any approach would likely yield a result that Jokic is the most situationally impactful player in the league.

From a defensive standpoint, i'm not the lowest nor the highest in the room on Jokic. I think metrics (part of which stems off the defensive swing) like DBPM, DRAPTOR oversell it - where I see him as a neutral defender, but very arguably a top 5 offensive player in history (and climbing). Perhaps this playoffs gives me a chance to look further and potentially challenge my view... for now am on the Jokic 3-peat train

[CharityStripe34]

If I had to guess, by the end of the season (barring health) the three leading candidates will be Giannis, Jokic and Tatum in no particular order. Obviously, guys like Luka and Embiid and Durant will get buzz (as will others).