RealGM

Luka is averaging 5ppg more than last year, career high in ppg, FG%, 3pt%, ast, ast/to, steal, almost all advanced stats, and mpg. Almost another MIP type improvement while people predicting he already peaked.

Which improves Luka the most, which may actually happen to him in the next 5 years?

Has to be 2nd team All D, I think he's already getting there for the 3s

Dr Positivity wrote:Has to be 2nd team All D, I think he's already getting there for the 3s

35.8% so far this season. And extra 4% from downtown would be very advantageous. At 10.8 FTA/g, though, 83% from the line is almost 10% extra, and that would not suck. It'd make for another approximately 0.95 FTM per game. The 40% versus 35.8% would add about +0.34 3PM/g. I don't know how much him being All-D would actually matter. It would certainly help and it's definitely a weakness of his, but that adds roughly 31 points to his seasonal total (prior to his latest scoring outburst), which moves him to 63.6% TS from the 61.8% he's at right now. 63.9% if you include tonight's game (but at the FT% he actually shot in-game).

Interesting conversation to be had. All of a sudden he becomes a +6% TS guy, which is very interesting territory, particularly at that volume and with his passing.

tsherkin wrote:

Dr Positivity wrote:Has to be 2nd team All D, I think he's already getting there for the 3s

35.8% so far this season. And extra 4% from downtown would be very advantageous. At 10.8 FTA/g, though, 83% from the line is almost 10% extra, and that would not suck. It'd make for another approximately 0.95 FTM per game. The 40% versus 35.8% would add about +0.34 3PM/g. I don't know how much him being All-D would actually matter. It would certainly help and it's definitely a weakness of his, but that adds roughly 31 points to his seasonal total (prior to his latest scoring outburst), which moves him to 63.6% TS from the 61.8% he's at right now. 63.9% if you include tonight's game (but at the FT% he actually shot in-game).

Interesting conversation to be had. All of a sudden he becomes a +6% TS guy, which is very interesting territory, particularly at that volume and with his passing.

He started pretty slow from 3 this season but is over 40% since the start of Nov I think, on high volume. Could be a hot streak but it seems like he's farther away from being a great defender than a great shooter to me.

Dr Positivity wrote:

tsherkin wrote:

Dr Positivity wrote:Has to be 2nd team All D, I think he's already getting there for the 3s

35.8% so far this season. And extra 4% from downtown would be very advantageous. At 10.8 FTA/g, though, 83% from the line is almost 10% extra, and that would not suck. It'd make for another approximately 0.95 FTM per game. The 40% versus 35.8% would add about +0.34 3PM/g. I don't know how much him being All-D would actually matter. It would certainly help and it's definitely a weakness of his, but that adds roughly 31 points to his seasonal total (prior to his latest scoring outburst), which moves him to 63.6% TS from the 61.8% he's at right now. 63.9% if you include tonight's game (but at the FT% he actually shot in-game).

Interesting conversation to be had. All of a sudden he becomes a +6% TS guy, which is very interesting territory, particularly at that volume and with his passing.

He started pretty slow from 3 this season but has been over 40% since the start of Nov I think, on high volume. Could be a hot streak but it seems like he's farther away from being a great defender than a great shooter to me.

Luka has nice defense instinct, strong body, and quick hands but not great lateral mobility. I am wondering whether his weakness can be covered by team defense and strength can be utilized enough for him to be an all-D player as a ceiling. His problems on defense mainly come from lack of energy/focus, gabling on stealing, and losing position, but have certainly been exaggerated to a certain extent for narrative and for attracting attention.

Dr Positivity wrote:

tsherkin wrote:

Dr Positivity wrote:Has to be 2nd team All D, I think he's already getting there for the 3s

35.8% so far this season. And extra 4% from downtown would be very advantageous. At 10.8 FTA/g, though, 83% from the line is almost 10% extra, and that would not suck. It'd make for another approximately 0.95 FTM per game. The 40% versus 35.8% would add about +0.34 3PM/g. I don't know how much him being All-D would actually matter. It would certainly help and it's definitely a weakness of his, but that adds roughly 31 points to his seasonal total (prior to his latest scoring outburst), which moves him to 63.6% TS from the 61.8% he's at right now. 63.9% if you include tonight's game (but at the FT% he actually shot in-game).

Interesting conversation to be had. All of a sudden he becomes a +6% TS guy, which is very interesting territory, particularly at that volume and with his passing.

He started pretty slow from 3 this season but is over 40% since the start of Nov I think, on high volume. Could be a hot streak but it seems like he's farther away from being a great defender than a great shooter to me.

doesn't he turn into a 40% shooter anyway in the playoffs

He's at 37% now with an average difficulty rating of about 9.9. I was hoping he would end up 37-38% after his first couple years. I don't see it getting much better, if at all. I'd like to see his FT get to 80+ but he just seems like the kind of guy that will always shoot better with somebody in his face, where he has to make a step-back or some other move to get a good look. Maybe just his competitive nature, IDK. Is there a rule that says you can't have a teammate in the half-circle beyond the FT line pretending to guard you? He'd probably shoot 85% that way.

The guy’s averaging 34 points and 9 assists on high efficiency. Clearly defense is going to be a more notable improvement.

OhayoKD wrote:doesn't he turn into a 40% shooter anyway in the playoffs

No. 36.6%; he shot 40.8% in the 2021 playoffs.

Dr Positivity wrote:He started pretty slow from 3 this season but is over 40% since the start of Nov I think, on high volume. Could be a hot streak but it seems like he's farther away from being a great defender than a great shooter to me.

Also no. He shot 22.6% in October, 36.6% in November and has been shooting 42.4% through December, including last night.

EDIT: TECHNICALLY, that means he is shooting exactly 40% since the start of November, but it's misleading because it has nothing to do with November and everything to do with being absurdly hot in December.

Given the options, it is defense. Having a supernova offensive player who is also a clear plus on defense is the stuff of GOATs.

You also have to think about what that improvement would entail in reality. Like, in order for this improvement to occur, Luka would need to dedicate more energy to defense, which means it would require sufficient offensive support in order for him to not have to carry absurd USG% rates and creative load, which presumably means...he has an actual good team around him.

This would, um, help Luka, in that he gets to profit from winning bias, which is a very real thing. To be clear, not saying this is a negative or fool's gold. I think him flourishing in a better situation is a clear positive data point when evaluating his 5 vs. 5 basketball ability.

I look at Luka’s shooting, like if he didn’t take such remarkably difficult shots from out there, he’d probably be a shade closer to 40% shooting anyway.

The FT shooting would be nice, but as long as he makes them in high stakes situation, I can live with him being 75-76%.

The defense would be a game changer.

Luka will all defense 2nd team level defense is probably a top 5 peak candidate level player, the other adjustements are nice but aren’t as Huge of a game changer

Reducing the TO count

dygaction wrote:

Dr Positivity wrote:

tsherkin wrote:
35.8% so far this season. And extra 4% from downtown would be very advantageous. At 10.8 FTA/g, though, 83% from the line is almost 10% extra, and that would not suck. It'd make for another approximately 0.95 FTM per game. The 40% versus 35.8% would add about +0.34 3PM/g. I don't know how much him being All-D would actually matter. It would certainly help and it's definitely a weakness of his, but that adds roughly 31 points to his seasonal total (prior to his latest scoring outburst), which moves him to 63.6% TS from the 61.8% he's at right now. 63.9% if you include tonight's game (but at the FT% he actually shot in-game).

Interesting conversation to be had. All of a sudden he becomes a +6% TS guy, which is very interesting territory, particularly at that volume and with his passing.

He started pretty slow from 3 this season but has been over 40% since the start of Nov I think, on high volume. Could be a hot streak but it seems like he's farther away from being a great defender than a great shooter to me.

Luka has nice defense instinct, strong body, and quick hands but not great lateral mobility. I am wondering whether his weakness can be covered by team defense and strength can be utilized enough for him to be an all-D player as a ceiling. His problems on defense mainly come from lack of energy/focus, gabling on stealing, and losing position, but have certainly been exaggerated to a certain extent for narrative and for attracting attention.

No it's mostly coming for lack of speed comparing to the other top PGs in the league.
Hell, even a semi-retired CP3 looks like Usain Bolt comparing to him in term of speed.

If Doncic didn't shoot with his set point so high and close to behind his head he would probably a +80% FT shooter


vs

Yuri36 wrote:
No it's mostly coming for lack of speed comparing to the other top PGs in the league.
Hell, even a semi-retired CP3 looks like Usain Bolt comparing to him in term of speed.

That's why you have Dinwiddie and Bullock starting next to him. Dinwiddie can guard 1's, Bullock can guard 2's, and Luka can be on whichever player isn't going to burn him as badly so he can focus on off ball and passing lanes. Same thing they did with Byron Scott and Magic Johnson (though Worthy didn't play down much). Defensively, he's a wing.

Luka 2nd team all D is a really long shot

Ft% or 3pt% improvements are more likely

All 2nd team D makes him the best player. Though I'd probably prefer to see him at 83% FT because his off nights from the line are infuriating.

falcolombardi wrote:Luka 2nd team all D is a really long shot

Ft% or 3pt% improvements are more likely

I think 3pt% improvement is even less likely than 2nd team all D. Have we seen any volume ft shooters increase 10% after playing professional ball for 7 years?

40% 3s for a few seasons seem to be the most likely given his continued increase over the past several years. That will make him even more difficult to defend.

Defense would be by far the biggest improvement, but it's unlikely. I guess him becoming a better shooter is the most likely, but I don't think it'd make him much better player. It's not like teams are happy with Luka shooting threes.