RealGM

Who better on offense and who's better in prime

I have to give the nod to Jokic at this point.

I think with Bird what we have is a guy with a set of tools that make us think he would be the best offensive player in an ideal setting, but as great as Bird's offensive career was, the kind of machine Jokic now represents a stronger "mastery" of the game as I see it.

Jokic, for me, is a guy who may go down as the Offensive GOAT when all is said and done.

Doctor MJ wrote:
Jokic, for me, is a guy who may go down as the Offensive GOAT when all is said and done.

That’s interestingly high praise for Jokic, considering how high you are on someone like Curry.

No-more-rings wrote:

Doctor MJ wrote:
Jokic, for me, is a guy who may go down as the Offensive GOAT when all is said and done.

That’s interestingly high praise for Jokic, considering how high you are on someone like Curry.

Yup, that's true. I think what I have to say is that it shouldn't be a real surprise if it's less a question of whether a current guy will become the Offensive GOAT, and which one it will be. This isn't to say that I'll ever think you're crazy for siding with Magic - who would currently be at the top of my list - but these guys are refining their effectiveness in a way that feels exponential as a result of the data-feedback loop that is so ubiquitous now, so to me it's really a question of whether I think guys from the past could do the Jokic or Curry thing better than Jokic/Curry.

In the case of Curry, the answer is always "No", but there's then a question of whether an off-ball role will really lead to the highest impact.

On-ball, I don't think I've ever seen anyone sharper than the Cookie Monster.

ftr, I should make clear that I think it's entirely possible that Doncic could end up coming out on top over Jokic, or that neither will end up surpass LeBron's 4-round bulletproof-ness. But what I see from Jokic has me most excited.

Jokic seems to be better offensively in regular season, not only his boxscore is ridiculous, also Nuggets offense is elite without any significant support past two years. +13, +10 and +20 net offensively are Steve Nash-esque numbers with higher scoring volume.

You can give an edge to Bird due to playoff performances, but I'm not too high on Bird as a playoff performer and it's more a benefit of being a deal done vs 28yo up-and-coming all-timer.

Overall, it may sound weird for the same reason right now, but I'd bet they'll be pretty close to each other when it's said and done for Joker on all-time lists. But this one is very circumstantial considering disparity in support they both had/have.

The Master wrote:Jokic seems to be better offensively in regular season

And much better on the playoffs...

Jaivl wrote:

The Master wrote:Jokic seems to be better offensively in regular season

And much better on the playoffs...

On average, I think so, Bird had many lapses in his postseason performances both early and late (post-86) of his career. Peak-wise, he has two and a half of amazing playoff runs though ('84, '86 and this series against Sixers in '81), but this is unfair comparison considering early on Bird was put in winning situation while Jokic hasn't been yet, that's why I'd focus on RS output. And here Jokic clicks on all criteria as a deadly efficient scorer/all-time great playmaker/floor raiser/ceiling raiser (+4.8 ORTG when Murray was healthy for majority of the season).

The Master wrote:

Jaivl wrote:

The Master wrote:Jokic seems to be better offensively in regular season

And much better on the playoffs...

On average, I think so, Bird had many lapses in his postseason performances both early and late (post-86) of his career. Peak-wise, he has two and a half of amazing playoff runs though ('84, '86 and this series against Sixers in '81), but this is unfair comparison considering early on Bird was put in winning situation while Jokic hasn't been yet, that's why I'd focus on RS output. And here Jokic clicks on all criteria as a deadly efficient scorer/all-time great playmaker/floor raiser/ceiling raiser (+4.8 ORTG when Murray was healthy for majority of the season).

Bird wasn’t put in a winning situation. He was brought to a loser and made them a winner.

SNPA wrote:Bird wasn’t put in a winning situation. He was brought to a loser and made them a winner.

They went from a +2.6 to a -3.4 defense from 79 to 80, and that was very much not due to Bird.

You're neglecting to mention Tiny played 11 extra games and another 11.7 mpg compared to the previous season. Bunch of injured guys retired or moved elsewhere. They also moved from Tom Sanders and Dave Cowens coaching to Bill Fitch. All things not to be ignored when considering the difference between those two seasons. Bird was very good as a rookie and Boston made a huge offensive improvement, but that wasn't the only reason. He didn't just "make them a winner," even if he was a huge part of it.

tsherkin wrote:

SNPA wrote:Bird wasn’t put in a winning situation. He was brought to a loser and made them a winner.

They went from a +2.6 to a -3.4 defense from 79 to 80, and that was very much not due to Bird.

You're neglecting to mention Tiny played 11 extra games and another 11.7 mpg compared to the previous season. Bunch of injured guys retired or moved elsewhere. They also moved from Tom Sanders and Dave Cowens coaching to Bill Fitch. All things not to be ignored when considering the difference between those two seasons. Bird was very good as a rookie and Boston made a huge offensive improvement, but that wasn't the only reason. He didn't just "make them a winner," even if he was a huge part of it.

At least some of us do believe he was the primary reason for that defensive improvement (I say in another thread by Doc that I’d give Bird DPOY for that season).

SNPA wrote:Bird wasn’t put in a winning situation. He was brought to a loser and made them a winner.

He was, as amazing as rookie Bird's swing was (he's ~top10 player for a reason), he played for an all-time great organization surrounded by great talent acquired thanks to all-time great moves by Celtics' Front Office. Both Bird and Magic were extremely lucky they got drafted in an era of odd lottery rules/draft picks trades, because nowadays neither Lakers nor Celtics would've been able to create dynasty in similar way they did. Retrospectively, it's utterly ridiculous considering the relevance of this rivalry to development of the NBA.

Nevermind, Jokic will be 28yo on February and I don't think he's ever had legit contender once (maybe 2020 bubble, but beating Clippers was a huge upset for a reason), so expecting from him to have Bird '84 or '86 playoff runs would be irrational.

eminence wrote:At least some of us do believe he was the primary reason for that defensive improvement (I say in another thread by Doc that I’d give Bird DPOY for that season).

I think health and coaching have a large part in that. Surely, Bird contributed with his deflections and his steals and his defensive rebounding. DPOY seems... a bit of a stretch, and that was a thunderous turn-around in defense. Younger Bird was a little more athletic, he was very active and he had phenomenal anticipation. One would think, however, that if he were such a titan on defense, that when they added Parish and McHale, that the Celtics would have improved more as a defense. They did not, 86 notwithstanding.

Something to consider.

I believe it is Jokic.

First, I just want to highlight the playoff scoring numbers during their peaks.

Jokic(20-22)

Jokic scoring during this time is at about an Inflation Adjusted 28.6 pts per 75 (rTS% of 5.2%)

Bird (84-86)

Bird's scoring during this time is about an Inflation Adjusted 24 pts per 75 (rTS% of 5.3%). I will note that Bird injuring his hand in 85 does dampen these numbers perhaps a bit, however I still don't believe his 84 or 86 runs when healthy suggest he is a better scorer than Jokic.

Furthermore, you could maybe argue Jokic continually improved greatly offensively each year from 20 to 2022, and therefore these current numbers I share UNDERRATE his true quality as a scorer.

Bird also arguably as one of the bigger drop-offs (at least per the box-score) of any superstar in NBA history on the offensive end throughout his prime, however once again Bird battled some injuries and sickness throughout his time at inopportune times.
But then this would lead me to again question, if perhaps another reason to pick Jokic over Bird is just Jokic's straight up durability...


Right now, Jokic is looking like arguably the best scorer in the league right now. This is particularly impressive when you consider that people believe his playmaking and scoring are the best aspects of his game. I think it really shows you how versatile he is and how he can beat you in a multitude of ways.

For the PS, I might favor Jokic's offense in terms of projected resiliency. Why you may ask? Jokic's scoring game is so versatile because he is such a potent post presence as a 1 on 1 scorer. He is extremely hard to double because his passing is just that outlandish. Jokic is an elite offensive rebounding threat that you constantly must box-out or else he will kill you on the boards. Because of him naturally playing inside the paint more, he is much more liable to draw fouls, which not only keeps his efficiency up but can get the opposing front court in trouble. Finally, he is leading the league in midrange FG%. Jokic is also terrific finishing at the rim, and the fact he can create and or be a finisher as a roller on these plays is a value add. That consistency as a scorer from that range probably gives him a higher floor than Bird,

Jokic is an underrated 3-level scorer. On the year he’s shooting 70% at the rim, 62% from midrange, and 34% from 3. Jokic ranks 13th in total short midrange shots taken, and 78th in total long midrange shots taken.

Bird's 3pt advantage might not be as great as it seems from the outset, when you consider he didn't start taking more than 1 per game until 1985, and also his 3 pt shooting seemingly fell off against tougher defenses. Per Thinking Basketball, Bird shot 47% from 3 against defenses that were about 2 points behind league average on 3 attempts every 36 mins...however against defenses 2 points ahead of league average, he shot only 34% and shooting less than 2 attempts ever 36 mins; even in the PS Bird is shooting less than 2 threes per 36 mins at about a 36% clip. Jokic shoots over 40% on open 3s right now...and these are the type of shots Bird was probably taking against weaker defenses. The thing with Jokic is that he doesn't need to be as reliant on 3's to create an efficient source of offense for himself, because he is stronger in the most valuable spots on the court in comparison to Bird.

Larry Bird has gravity, but I think Jokic has outlier gravity relative to many all-time offensive players, due to him being an all-time floor-spacer for at the 5. His ability to draw a rim-protector out the paint is highly valuable. His strongest argument over someone like Bird as a passer (not saying he is definitely better but this would be one of the arguments) all-time might be due positional hedge/advantage. If your C is a terrific passer/shooter you basically have every layup at the rim without the primary rim protector (because they are busy guarding Jokic in this case). Aaron Gordon has GOAT-like finishing numbers at face-value because he gets so many easier attempts at the rim.

Continuing on, I think I trust Jokic more as a floor-raiser because of his iso-scoring and less need for him to have good passers on his team. I greatly value floor-raising so I do lean Jokic. I also think Jokic might have an argument as a better offensive ceiling-raiser because he is comparable to Bird in many of the same respects, but he is a better, offensive rebounder Jokic can generate easier shots for himself. I really want to harp on the easier shot for him portion, because it is the biggest difference between him and Bird...

Jokic has played 33 games and has only had 2 games this season with a TS% below 56% (which is just a bit below the league). Jokic is just so consistent with his scoring.

rk2023 wrote:My pick would be Nikola Jokic, I am not one who's too fixated on team record, narratives, and what not - but rather how valuable a player is for their situation. I think that in the aforementioned regard, Jokic beats the field this season while being a very formidable choice from a skillset/production standpoint.

Some impact metrics showcasing how good Jokic has been:

7.5 AuPM/game (1st in the league, T-3rd [16 Curry] all-time)
14.2 RAPTOR (1st)
9.6 O-RAPTOR (2nd)
7.91 RPM (3rd)
8.0 DunksandThrees EPM (T-1st)
.300 WS/48 (1st)

Per game, Jokic doesn't have these gaudy box stats.. but saying his game is affective would be quite the understatement.
25.2 10.9 9.0 1.5 0.7

- 62.1% FG (132 FG+)
- 64.8% eFG (120 eFG+)
- 69.2% TS (+11.7 > relative to league average)

As a scorer, a whopping ~70% of his shots come within 0-10 feet, what's just obscene is on shots from 3-10 (40% of his diet), Jokic is currently shooting 65% - numbers pretty similar to what 70s-fan tracked apex Kareem in that range back during the peaks project. He's truly a battering ram at the basket, with phenomenal touch to counter.

Passing/Playmaking wise, he remains one of the league's best passers all-time (a level seen by the likes of Bird, Magic, LBJ) and the nuggets can run some pretty stellar motion offense with Jokic serving as a passing-hub and with the post-area attention he commands as a scorer. Currently posting a 14.5 Box Creation (6th in the league) with a pristine 9.5 Passer Rating.

These nuances mentioned above, and probably signaled with Jokic's impact metrics, are a reason why Denver's offensive rating swings from a 125.12 -> 107.86 with Jokic on vs. off (defense swings from 114.34 -> 121.48 to give him a total +24.4 on/off with low leverage minutes filtered - akin to 2009 LBJ). Part of this is influenced by rotations and what not, but any approach would likely yield a result that Jokic is the most situationally impactful player in the league.

From a defensive standpoint, i'm not the lowest nor the highest in the room on Jokic. I think metrics (part of which stems off the defensive swing) like DBPM, DRAPTOR oversell it - where I see him as a neutral defender, but very arguably a top 5 offensive player in history (and climbing). Perhaps this playoffs gives me a chance to look further and potentially challenge my view... for now am on the Jokic 3-peat train

TLDR, I think Jokic is better - my argument derived from a lot of the above and below reasoning. Would probably rank Jokic 5th and Bird 8th? as an offensive peak all-time if I were to specify all the way down to a number.

While he is playing on-ball more than Bird, they still share similarities in involving themselves across Boston and Denver's respective offenses. Being more potent on-ball and able to back-down and pick smarter shots gives Jokic an advantage in scoring efficiency, of course he is a better rebounder due to position, I would give Jokic an advantage in playmaking (solely passing is very close).

I do wonder how Bird would fare in a more analytically proficient era and with better access to resources and information. Contrary to some, I like his translation into 2022-23 (modern era in general) a lot on both sides and I think he would fare well at the PF position. Then and theoretically now, one concern I have is Bird's weaker handle and ability to create his own shot near the basket. I believe this to have been really his only weakness as an offensive player.

eminence wrote:At least some of us do believe he was the primary reason for that defensive improvement (I say in another thread by Doc that I’d give Bird DPOY for that season).

Circling back to this, I see there has been some interesting discussion on this subject. Are there any threads you can recall which might help me dig into this more deeply? It is really the opposite of what I've seen and read to date, but this board challenges established notions quite effectively on a regular basis, so I'd like to see what's been done on the subject.

Like many have said here, Jokic's resilience against practically any defense is the prime separator for me in this comparison - and practically any comparison with other offensive GOATs. The guy also seems to churn out elite offenses no matter who's playing with him.

Jokic is the best non-PG passer of all-time and his efficiency edge over Bird in his MVP years is larger than the difference in efficiency between MVP Bird and Westbrook in his worst seasons. Jokic is obviously the better player and it’s even more obvious if you’re talking about offense only.

On offense it's not even a question. Jokic is better than Bird especially when it comes to scoring.


Overall, I am not sure. Bird is not as exploitable as Jokic I think on defense. The way this season is going that might not matter. I think Jokic is about to surpass Larry.

Some of the Jokic takes being obviously so much better make me wonder how much Bird people watched. I’m guessing it’s a age thing.

iggymcfrack wrote:Jokic is the best non-PG passer of all-time and his efficiency edge over Bird in his MVP years is larger than the difference in efficiency between MVP Bird and Westbrook in his worst seasons. Jokic is obviously the better player and it’s even more obvious if you’re talking about offense only.

Bird peaked at +7.4 rTS% in 1987.
Jokic is at +11.5 rTS% right now.
Westbrook peaked at +1.3 rTS% in 2016.

I don't think you are right about efficiency here.