Worst season on/off for a rotation player?

[Owly]

Just random nonsense. Feel free to move if not within PC remit.

I just remembered seeing Chris Morris's 1997 on-off of -35.0 and being shocked, feeling some disbelief then just moving on.

And maybe this is easily sortable, findable somewhere but I was wondering if anyone was worse, that was semi-rotation or above. Morris is a touch below 1000 minutes and below 12x82=984 (i.e. one quarter a game) at 977 but he is above 12mpg average whilst playing over 70 games so you could argue him as rotation. I looked at awful RAPM year guys like Josh Powell and awful RAPM career guys like Warrick and Hickson I can't see anyone touching it.

I guess it might partly be them mostly platooning the core best player lineup which was elite, but he was mostly on with Stockton (and they still get destroyed) and Morris is an outlier on-off on the team with no one else sub -20. But they're -20 with him on. Maybe he's more locked out of minutes with other stars (Malone, Hornacek) than others?? Even so ...

Back to the conceptual level I know this would be a very noisy measure of player quality but for that you figure the outliers are at the top end and then there's a larger population of replacement level players and someone seeming to do big harm, you could easily switch out (in this case maybe give Keefe the minutes?). Maybe they didn't see that he wasn't working? The next year he's an outlier negative on the team though at a less absurd -23.6 but at glance and off reports was only getting garbage time initially then ended up back in the rotation...

I don't know just seemed kinda weird and interesting. Any thoughts?

[penbeast0]

Morris was a great talent but a headcase both in New Jersey and later. He got a lot of chances because you could see what he would be if he ever focused in but just never seemed to put it together consistently.

[homecourtloss]

Just random nonsense. Feel free to move if not within PC remit.

I just remembered seeing Chris Morris's 1997 on-off of -35.0 and being shocked, feeling some disbelief then just moving on.

And maybe this is easily sortable, findable somewhere but I was wondering if anyone was worse, that was semi-rotation or above. Morris is a touch below 1000 minutes and below 12x82=984 (i.e. one quarter a game) at 977 but he is above 12mpg average whilst playing over 70 games so you could argue him as rotation. I looked at awful RAPM year guys like Josh Powell and awful RAPM career guys like Warrick and Hickson I can't see anyone touching it.

Hickson…he wouldn’t be able to stay in the league as long with all teams running analytics departments. He shouldn’t have been able to stay in the league as long as he did. And there there’s Warrick. I’ve never seen a player nor use any of the physical gifts he possesses and on top of that be completely unable to make a right decision on court. Warrick and Hickson with 20K minutes each near the very bottom: https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/97-14-rapm-2b

I don’t think Wiseman counts as a rotation player but he was getting close to those numbers earlier this year before the Warriors got blown out in back to back games versus the Nets and the Knicks.

[Doctor MJ]

If I do a bkref search on worst raw +/- in minimum 1000 minutes, I get a list of guys. I'll look up their On/Off

1. Dean Garrett (DEN) '97-98, On/Off -6.2
2. Michael Olowokandi (LAC) '99-00, On/Off -4.4
3. Roy Hibbert (LAL) '15-16, On/Off -15.1
4. Julius Randle (LAL) '15-16, On/Off -11.8
5. Collin Sexton (CLE) '18-19, On/Off -8.0

If I do a bkref search for worst raw +/- in wins minimum 500 minutes, I get a list of guys. I'll look up their On/Off

1. Josh Powell (LAL) '08-09, On/Off -22.3
2. Dahntay Jones (MEM) '05-06, On/Off -14.8
3. JJ Hickson (CLE) '08-09, On/Off -18.8
4. Tony Massenburg (SAC) '03-04, On/Off -17.0
5. Jeff McInnis (POR) '02-03, On/Off -13.3

None of them topping Morris though.

[homecourtloss]

If I do a bkref search on worst raw +/- in minimum 1000 minutes, I get a list of guys. I'll look up their On/Off

1. Dean Garrett (DEN) '97-98, On/Off -6.2
2. Michael Olowokandi (LAC) '99-00, On/Off -4.4
3. Roy Hibbert (LAL) '15-16, On/Off -15.1
4. Julius Randle (LAL) '15-16, On/Off -11.8
5. Collin Sexton (CLE) '18-19, On/Off -8.0

If I do a bkref search for worst raw +/- in wins minimum 500 minutes, I get a list of guys. I'll look up their On/Off

1. Josh Powell (LAL) '08-09, On/Off -22.3
2. Dahntay Jones (MEM) '05-06, On/Off -14.8
3. JJ Hickson (CLE) '08-09, On/Off -18.8
4. Tony Massenburg (SAC) '03-04, On/Off -17.0
5. Jeff McInnis (POR) '02-03, On/Off -13.3

None of them topping Morris though.

Was going through some data a while back and found numbers for Olowokandi and JJ Hickson that speak to the powers of KG and James to elevate terrible players. Both players only had one season in which they were a positive on court, olowokandi had on one positive On-off, Hickson NONE.

Olowokandi only played one season in which he was a positive on court and his team better with him on it albeit in limited minutes. This was in 2004.

Season Tm OnCourt On-Off
1998-99 LAC -11.6 -4.6
1999-00 LAC -13.4 -4.4
2000-01 LAC -6.6 -6.8
2001-02 LAC -1.6 -2.8
2002-03 LAC -6.0 -2.2
2003-04 MIN +9.7 +4.6
2004-05 MIN -1.6 -4.6
2005-06 MIN -3.1 -1.1
2005-06 BOS -16.0 -15.0
2006-07 BOS -5.8 -2.0

In 2004, he played 690 of his total 925 minutes with KG; in these minutes with KG, he was +12.9 per 100 possessions. In the other 235 minutes, he was +.3 per 100 possessions

JJ Hickson, a bottom dweller of the 1997-2014 RAPM dataset (1635 of 1648 yet somehow played many many minutes https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/97-14-rapm-2 ) also only had one season in which he was a positive on court,i.e., 2010. But 2009 is most interesting.

Season Tm OnCourt On-Off
2008-09 CLE -5.1 -18.8
2009-10 CLE +2.3 -9.0
2010-11 CLE -11.9 -5.7
2011-12 SAC -10.1 -5.0
2011-12 POR -7.4 -7.7
2012-13 POR -5.0 -3.3
2013-14 DEN -5.3 -5.9
2014-15 DEN -7.3 -5.4
2015-16 DEN -6.7 -3.9
2015-16 WAS -8.3 -8.2

In 2009, Hickson played 283 of his 705 minutes with James in which he was +17.5 per 100 possessions. In the other 422 minutes, he was -20.3 per 100 possessions.

[AEnigma]

Not exactly your question, but 2016 Demar Derozan and 1981 Julius Erving both were in the top twenty in minutes played and had -6 on/off splits for 2-seed conference finalists.

[falcolombardi]

Not exactly your question, but 2016 Demar Derozan and 1981 Julius Erving both were in the top twenty in minutes played and had -6 on/off splits for 2-seed conference finalists.

Which is wild as julius was the mvp that season

[eminence]

Tough to imagine worse than Morris there, I imagine if someone does 'top' it it's another lower minutes guy like that to push the sample smaller.

Craig is pushing the -20 boundary in a pretty big role for the Suns this season.

[LA Bird]

The minimum qualifier changes each season but you can sort the league by on/off:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2022_play-by-play.html

Chris Morris's -35.0 is the worst since pbp data is available and it's not even close. 2016 Ian Clark is 2nd at -20.2 in 578 minutes.

[LA Bird]

Not exactly your question, but 2016 Demar Derozan and 1981 Julius Erving both were in the top twenty in minutes played and had -6 on/off splits for 2-seed conference finalists.

1999 Blazers were #2 in SRS and made the conference finals with a -15 on/off Damon Stoudamire leading the team in minutes.

[homecourtloss]

Not exactly your question, but 2016 Demar Derozan and 1981 Julius Erving both were in the top twenty in minutes played and had -6 on/off splits for 2-seed conference finalists.

Which is wild as julius was the mvp that season

Dr. J’s ON/OFF numbers in Pollack’s set…Hard to ignore. Bobby Jones and Mo Cheeks come out looking better than ever.

[AEnigma]

Not exactly your question, but 2016 Demar Derozan and 1981 Julius Erving both were in the top twenty in minutes played and had -6 on/off splits for 2-seed conference finalists.

1999 Blazers were #2 in SRS and made the conference finals with a -15 on/off Damon Stoudamire leading the team in minutes.

Great pull. Isaiah Rider similarly horrendous too. What an odd team, although I supposed a shortened season makes those types of splits a little more possible.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Not exactly your question, but 2016 Demar Derozan and 1981 Julius Erving both were in the top twenty in minutes played and had -6 on/off splits for 2-seed conference finalists.

Which is wild as julius was the mvp that season

Another crazy thing right now is that Giannis has a -0.6 Net On/Off right now.

I actually don't believe that Giannis is a materially worse player or anything from last year in terms of what you would expect from him in a PS setting; I just think he is being overstretched a bit with Middleton being out, and also he seems to like to work on his jumper during the season.

[Warriors Analyst]

Just random nonsense. Feel free to move if not within PC remit.

I just remembered seeing Chris Morris's 1997 on-off of -35.0 and being shocked, feeling some disbelief then just moving on.

And maybe this is easily sortable, findable somewhere but I was wondering if anyone was worse, that was semi-rotation or above. Morris is a touch below 1000 minutes and below 12x82=984 (i.e. one quarter a game) at 977 but he is above 12mpg average whilst playing over 70 games so you could argue him as rotation. I looked at awful RAPM year guys like Josh Powell and awful RAPM career guys like Warrick and Hickson I can't see anyone touching it.

Hickson…he wouldn’t be able to stay in the league as long with all teams running analytics departments. He shouldn’t have been able to stay in the league as long as he did. And there there’s Warrick. I’ve never seen a player nor use any of the physical gifts he possesses and on top of that be completely unable to make a right decision on court. Warrick and Hickson with 20K minutes each near the very bottom: https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/97-14-rapm-2b

I don’t think Wiseman counts as a rotation player but he was getting close to those numbers earlier this year before the Warriors got blown out in back to back games versus the Nets and the Knicks.

Wiseman has somehow been worse with Steph Curry this season than he was as a rookie. I've looked into Curry + player X combos a lot since Wiseman became a Warrior and using 100 mins as the threshold, rookie year Wiseman had the 7th-worst net rating alongside Curry of any player dating back to Curry's rookie season. The players who were worse than rookie Wiseman alongside almost all washed out of the league within a season or less than 50 games after their bad stints with Steph.

This season, Curry/Wiseman had a -19.5 net rating prior to Wiseman's G-League stint and Steph's injury. If he's similarly bad in >100 possessions, that would be the 2nd-worst net rating of all-time alongside Steph, bested (worsted?) only by Mikki Moore in Steph's rookie season.

Anyway, funny seeing JJ Hickson listed here. Hilarious to think back to the Cavs being reluctant to trade him in a package for Amare.

[-Luke-]

Was going through some data a while back and found numbers for Olowokandi and JJ Hickson that speak to the powers of KG and James to elevate terrible players. Both players only had one season in which they were a positive on court, olowokandi had on one positive On-off, Hickson NONE.

Larry Bird certainly agrees.

I've recently read the book The Soul of Basketball by Ian Thomsen (about the 2010-11 season). Here is an excerpt from the book:

[...] which was why Bird has refused the advice of his general manager, David Morway, to acquire the Cavaliers' young forward J.J. Hickson and others who had played with LeBron in Cleveland. "Morway was trying to get me to trade for them, but I ain't taking any of them f*cking guys up there," said Bird. "I said, 'You don't understand, son, them guys playing with LeBron James look a hell of a lot better than what they are.'