RealGM

Take a hypothetical player who plays 20 years. Top-5 RAPM 12+ times (high ORAPM and DRAPM), #1 RAPM 7+ times, peak season 33-10-10 on elite efficiency. No wasted seasons from development or aging, comes into the league at All-NBA level like MJ and leaves at All-NBA level like Wilt. Also crushes the eyetest. But at the end of his career though he has a trophy case full of MVPs, he has no rings. What's the highest you would rank such a player on the GOAT list?

Of course how exactly he failed to win any rings would matter but say every prime season has some reasonable excuse: drafted by a bad team like KG and loses his first 7-8 seasons with no help, loses a few prime postseasons to injury like KD, has his team suffer major injuries in a couple of seasons like 2015 LeBron, runs into superteams a couple of times like 2017 and 2018 LeBron, loses in 7 games several times but usually plays great in Game 7.

I'm not sure where exactly I'd rank this hypothetical player but I'm 100% sure he'd be well below my GOAT tier. At some point you can't explain away all responsibility for 20 years. LeBron did the impossible in 2016 (with a bit of help from Curry underperforming of course), Russell is regarded as having by far the best supporting cast in his time but even he overcame the odds in 68 and arguably 66 and 69 as well and while Kareem and MJ were never really underdogs in years like 82 and 93 respectively they weren't on the clear best team and still confidently won the title.

rand wrote:Take a hypothetical player who plays 20 years. Top-5 RAPM ten times, #1 RAPM multiple times, peak season 30-10-10 on high efficiency. Also crushes the eyetest. But at the end of his career though he has a trophy case full of MVPs, he has no rings. What's the highest you would rank such a player on the GOAT list?

Of course how exactly he failed to win any rings would matter but say every prime season has some reasonable excuse: drafted by a bad team like KG and loses his first 7-8 seasons with no help, loses a few prime postseasons to injury like KD, has his team suffer major injuries in a couple of seasons like 2015 LeBron, runs into superteams a couple of times like 2017 and 2018 LeBron, loses in 7 games several times but usually plays great in Game 7.

Without a ring at all? That resume doesn’t even sound better than brons right now.

Top 5 10 times, and top 1 2-5 times what it sounds like in RAPM, doesn’t win, has some years in his prime where he’s hurt in the playoffs and loses others, his peak season is about similar to what a guy like Luka is doing now to an extent.


Bron in PI RAPM

#1 in

2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, and based on his single year rating, 2017 would be as well.

So 7 years at #1.

2009 and 2013 he was 2nd.
4th in 2008 rapm
5th in 2020 shotcharts npi rapm.
6th in 2007

So what I’m seeing is, a pretty inferior version of bron that got hurt in 2012, 2013, 2016 and 2020 postseasons?

Yeah idk if that’s top 10, but certainly not close to the GOAT or anything



In any case, no I don’t think you can be the GOAT without a single title

why don't you make a more extreme example which actually looks like a clear goat outside of the rings

OhayoKD wrote:why don't you make a more extreme example which actually looks like a clear goat outside of the rings

So pretty much 20 years of replicating the best non-title seasons like 64 Wilt, 74 and 77 Kareem, 88 and 90 MJ, 93 Hakeem, 02 Duncan, 04 KG, 09 and 18 LeBron etc. At that point top 10 is going to be pretty much impossible to deny but even then I don't see GOAT in the cards.

Dutchball97 wrote:

OhayoKD wrote:why don't you make a more extreme example which actually looks like a clear goat outside of the rings

So pretty much 20 years of replicating the best non-title seasons like 64 Wilt, 74 and 77 Kareem, 88 and 90 MJ, 93 Hakeem, 02 Duncan, 04 KG, 09 and 18 LeBron etc. At that point top 10 is going to be pretty much impossible to deny but even then I don't see GOAT in the cards.

I don’t even think top 10 is impossible to deny, think it’s fair to have a barrier if you don’t win at all

Dutchball97 wrote:

OhayoKD wrote:why don't you make a more extreme example which actually looks like a clear goat outside of the rings

So pretty much 20 years of replicating the best non-title seasons like 64 Wilt, 74 and 77 Kareem, 88 and 90 MJ, 93 Hakeem, 02 Duncan, 04 KG, 09 and 18 LeBron etc. At that point top 10 is going to be pretty much impossible to deny but even then I don't see GOAT in the cards.

Alright lets flesh out this example a bit.

30-50 win WOWY at every spot they go to, +8-10 RAPM every season, defenses get 4 points better throughout at least 10 of the 20 years, offense goes from worst to best a bunch, demonstrates impact in situations where they theoretically shouldn't a bunch of times. They join a 10 win team, win 50 games in their first season, stay at least 50 throughout, they go against some 75 win team and lose in 7, face a 68 win team without best three teammates, lose in 6, and then the best player from the 68 win team joins the 75 win team and they lose to THAT team in 7.

The team's relative offense and defense improves against better defenses and offenses consistently. They consistently have a better net-rating in the 4th quarter than the first 3. They are an elite paint protector, man defender, help defender, playcaller, an all-time on-ball playmaker, an all-time off-ball passer, all-time movement creator, an all-time scorer, who can shoot from everywhere and is also one of the best finishers and drivers ever.

8 MVP's including 3 unanimous, 20 all-stars, 18 all-time first team selections, won 3 fmvps on the losing team, won an mvp and 60+ games as a player-coach.

They're also first all-time in all the box-in-ones for basically any time frame, rs and playoffs, for those who care about that.

For the purpose of this thread I'd encourage people to respond to this player profile as opposed to the op's because, as timo showed, their example is basically just ringless lebron

MyUniBroDavis wrote:

Dutchball97 wrote:

OhayoKD wrote:why don't you make a more extreme example which actually looks like a clear goat outside of the rings

So pretty much 20 years of replicating the best non-title seasons like 64 Wilt, 74 and 77 Kareem, 88 and 90 MJ, 93 Hakeem, 02 Duncan, 04 KG, 09 and 18 LeBron etc. At that point top 10 is going to be pretty much impossible to deny but even then I don't see GOAT in the cards.

I don’t even think top 10 is impossible to deny, think it’s fair to have a barrier if you don’t win at all

That's true but there comes a time when it's just not that reasonable anymore. Someone like Kobe's best season would've been worse than the worst season of this hypothetical player and doesn't even have his usual longevity advantage. At that point literally the only argument left is rings and while I expect that from twitter, I wouldn't take anyone who looks at basketball like that seriously. Same with someone like KG. If a player has 20 seasons on par or better than 04 KG but you still have KG ahead because he has 1 ring, that's taking things too far. By that logic Isiah Thomas and Ben Wallace are better than Karl Malone and Elgin Baylor too.

OhayoKD wrote:why don't you make a more extreme example which actually looks like a clear goat outside of the rings

I was shooting for a stat profile that was just slightly better than the current best. A couple more top-5 RAPM seasons than LeBron, a moderate peak counting stat and efficiency edge. I agree that I undershot the mark but I don't think by that much.

I don't want the stats to blow the conversation away. I think obviously there's a point where anyone who puts any stock in stats will grant a ringless player is the best, but what about when the stats while still the best ever are not so overwhelming that they have the option of giving the priority to rings?

MyUniBroDavis wrote:

rand wrote:Take a hypothetical player who plays 20 years. Top-5 RAPM ten times, #1 RAPM multiple times, peak season 30-10-10 on high efficiency. Also crushes the eyetest. But at the end of his career though he has a trophy case full of MVPs, he has no rings. What's the highest you would rank such a player on the GOAT list?

Of course how exactly he failed to win any rings would matter but say every prime season has some reasonable excuse: drafted by a bad team like KG and loses his first 7-8 seasons with no help, loses a few prime postseasons to injury like KD, has his team suffer major injuries in a couple of seasons like 2015 LeBron, runs into superteams a couple of times like 2017 and 2018 LeBron, loses in 7 games several times but usually plays great in Game 7.

Without a ring at all? That resume doesn’t even sound better than brons right now.

Top 5 10 times, and top 1 2-5 times what it sounds like in RAPM, doesn’t win, has some years in his prime where he’s hurt in the playoffs and loses others, his peak season is about similar to what a guy like Luka is doing now to an extent.


Bron in PI RAPM

#1 in

2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, and based on his single year rating, 2017 would be as well.

So 7 years at #1.

2009 and 2013 he was 2nd.
4th in 2008 rapm
5th in 2020 shotcharts npi rapm.
6th in 2007

So what I’m seeing is, a pretty inferior version of bron that got hurt in 2012, 2013, 2016 and 2020 postseasons?

Yeah idk if that’s top 10, but certainly not close to the GOAT or anything



In any case, no I don’t think you can be the GOAT without a single title

What RAPM data set are you using? I know there are others out there but I was just going by these:

https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/2013-rapm-non-prior-informed-updated-march-30
http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm?id=249756009
https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/

The first set I think is JE and is mostly PI. It only goes up to 2013 but doesn't have LeBron #1 in 2011 or 2012. The second set is all NPI but it doesn't have LeBron #1 in 2011 or 2012 either. The last set I know is deprecated (and all NPI) by many but it also doesn't have LeBron #1 in most of those seasons.

Anyway I was shooting for 1 or 2 more top-5 RAPM finishes than LeBron and one more #1 finish. Just a tick better than the current stat GOAT.

Another reminder than in this hugely complex math problem that is basketball we have veeeery incomplete information, and we just try to do as well as we can with what we have.

If Olajuwon was as good as he was in 93-95 from 88-98 but no rings, say 4mvps in that era, he'd be top 5. Championships are won by teams, though stars make a big contribution, so a player can't be faulted for that. Had Jerry West never won a ring I'd so have him top 12-14.

I think I would have such player in a GOAT tier without the ring, although it would requite very unfortunate circumstances for a player of that level never reaching such height team-wise.

Now, I do have Garnett around 10th spot with only one ring. Oscar and West are not far behind. I have Karl Malone inside my top 15. Imagine Karl Malone with his longevity but significantly better defensive game and more resilient offensive game - yes, I think he'd definitely be a GOAT candidate. At the same time, this better version of Malone would almost certainly have won a few titles in real Malone's place.

rand wrote:

MyUniBroDavis wrote:

rand wrote:Take a hypothetical player who plays 20 years. Top-5 RAPM ten times, #1 RAPM multiple times, peak season 30-10-10 on high efficiency. Also crushes the eyetest. But at the end of his career though he has a trophy case full of MVPs, he has no rings. What's the highest you would rank such a player on the GOAT list?

Of course how exactly he failed to win any rings would matter but say every prime season has some reasonable excuse: drafted by a bad team like KG and loses his first 7-8 seasons with no help, loses a few prime postseasons to injury like KD, has his team suffer major injuries in a couple of seasons like 2015 LeBron, runs into superteams a couple of times like 2017 and 2018 LeBron, loses in 7 games several times but usually plays great in Game 7.

Without a ring at all? That resume doesn’t even sound better than brons right now.

Top 5 10 times, and top 1 2-5 times what it sounds like in RAPM, doesn’t win, has some years in his prime where he’s hurt in the playoffs and loses others, his peak season is about similar to what a guy like Luka is doing now to an extent.


Bron in PI RAPM

#1 in

2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, and based on his single year rating, 2017 would be as well.

So 7 years at #1.

2009 and 2013 he was 2nd.
4th in 2008 rapm
5th in 2020 shotcharts npi rapm.
6th in 2007

So what I’m seeing is, a pretty inferior version of bron that got hurt in 2012, 2013, 2016 and 2020 postseasons?

Yeah idk if that’s top 10, but certainly not close to the GOAT or anything



In any case, no I don’t think you can be the GOAT without a single title

What RAPM data set are you using? I know there are others out there but I was just going by these:

https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/2013-rapm-non-prior-informed-updated-march-30
http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm?id=249756009
https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/

The first set I think is JE and is mostly PI. It only goes up to 2013 but doesn't have LeBron #1 in 2011 or 2012. The second set is all NPI but it doesn't have LeBron #1 in 2011 or 2012 either. The last set I know is deprecated (and all NPI) by many but it also doesn't have LeBron #1 in most of those seasons.

Anyway I was shooting for 1 or 2 more top-5 RAPM finishes than LeBron and one more #1 finish. Just a tick better than the current stat GOAT.

JE has a dropbox dataset on apbr where it’s basically PI RAPM (multiyear with higher weight on the current year), and he released 2016 on Twitter and 2017 as well iirc.

After that I did shot charts

Dutchball97 wrote:

MyUniBroDavis wrote:

Dutchball97 wrote:
So pretty much 20 years of replicating the best non-title seasons like 64 Wilt, 74 and 77 Kareem, 88 and 90 MJ, 93 Hakeem, 02 Duncan, 04 KG, 09 and 18 LeBron etc. At that point top 10 is going to be pretty much impossible to deny but even then I don't see GOAT in the cards.

I don’t even think top 10 is impossible to deny, think it’s fair to have a barrier if you don’t win at all

That's true but there comes a time when it's just not that reasonable anymore. Someone like Kobe's best season would've been worse than the worst season of this hypothetical player and doesn't even have his usual longevity advantage. At that point literally the only argument left is rings and while I expect that from twitter, I wouldn't take anyone who looks at basketball like that seriously. Same with someone like KG. If a player has 20 seasons on par or better than 04 KG but you still have KG ahead because he has 1 ring, that's taking things too far. By that logic Isiah Thomas and Ben Wallace are better than Karl Malone and Elgin Baylor too.

I think it’s fair to set a barrier at some arbitrary point and say you at least need to win once in order to break that point

Like, Im obviously insanely high on Bron career value wise even relative to some of his supporters but if he NEVER won a ring I wouldn’t have much issue with anyone not having him top 10