Doctor MJ wrote:dygaction wrote:Not to discuss which is more difficult or more single core but to see which run impacted the landscape of top 20 players more.
TD's 2003 put TD in secure place as the best PF ever; gave GDP core a chance to grow; add one more ring to DRob; Stopped Shaq's 4 peat; weakened the Shaq/Kobe duo for the long run.
Dirk along the way, proved he can win as the best player; quenched Kobe's chance for 3 peat; delayed Durant/Westbrook/Harden's growth; add a big stain on LeBron's legacy or potential 3 peat.
I said Dirk.
Dirk leading the Mavs to a title completely changed not only his narrative but the idea about the only way to win a title as a big.
When Duncan an the Spurs beat the Lakers in '02-03, they did so led by a traditional big, and they beat an underachieving, self-destructing 5-seed, that at best was going to eek out one more title.
I'd like to pushback on this, as I voted and am confident with Duncan here; Though I respect the Dirk nod and think that his and Dallas' 2011 campaign was special - both in real-time and nowadays. Much respect to a class-act like him and his NBA journey.
With his narrative, I fully agree - in that up until 2011 there were a fair share of concerns about Dirk despite a very impressive statistical foot-print and many ATG series (particularly as a scorer) he obtained through that point. Some examples are the 2008-10 series, anything in 2006 until the finals, and even back to to 2004 and before. I think 2005 and 2007 being small samples shade some Dirk perception in a very negative manner, and frankly shouldn't take away from his body of work.. even before the 2010-11 campaign played out in itself.
When it comes to winning a series in an unorthodox way as a big, I find this true at face value. There's no doubt he was the most impactful player on the Mavs team - his RAPM score of 8.6 is quite amazing on an all-time scale, and his on/off was ~17.1. With that said and back to the point of roster construction, there are some effects of co-linearity (3.0 D-RAPM & 5.6 Defensive Rating Swing) even with a clear MVP+ foot-print. Part of enabling such a different definition of being a title-catalyzing big was enabled by Kidd, Chandler, and Marions' work on the defensive end. To play a little devil's advocate, the fact that Dirk playing the 4 and having the amazing spacing, shot-making, and low turnover economy he brought to the table enabled this construction as well. If you have read ElGee's work(s) in Thinking Basketball, there is great rhetoric presented of such a "lone star illusion", where the 2003 Spurs funnily enough are cited as well.
Onto Duncan:
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b]
Duncan's 2003 PS run:[/b]
All stats per 75
24.8 aPts on +6.2%rTS
12 FTA / 100 Poss and 1.5 ScoreVal
14.3 Rebounds (3.75 on Offense)
5.0 Assists
3.1 Blocks
7.3 Passer Rating
37.8 O-Load
8.7 BackPicks BPM (4.5 OBPM) , 10.2 BBR BPM (6.2 O)
.279 WS/48
7.4 Augmented +/- Per Game (4th all time behind 2017 Curry, and 17/09 James)
7.91 Full-Season PIPM
27 On/Off Net Rating Swing, 105.6-96.6 (+9) on floor vs. 87.6-105.6 off floor.
This doesn't even get into the eye test, where there is a ton to like about Duncan as a defensive anchor (in the context of 2003 San Antonio, took a very solid defensive slanted team to GOAT-lite levels) and a floor-raiser with his post scoring, ability to garner fouls, and underrated passing and playmaking acumen (pretty great rim assist-rates, iirc / 1-in 4-out playmaking based off of teams' reacting to Duncan's scoring threat). Basically any impact metric available regards this season not too far from some of the highest seasons charted. He could have at the least some argument over these three
I mentioned this in an earlier thread on the impact / classification of the best "two-way" player, arguing that Duncan at his apex has a case for this prestigious title (not that I believe this, I personally think Kareem brought the most aggregate value out of big-men at his very best). While I agree that them getting over the hump of our defending 3-peat team and the Kobe-Shaq pairing was due to less depth and sort of a Shaq coasting/missing time effect (this shows in the RS SRS of ~2.7 points and only being a 50 win team). For some context though, defense was more the problem than Offense - as LA's ORTG was 107.2, good for fourth in the league. The twin tower pairing of Duncan and Robinson held them to a ORTG of 103.6 - 3.6 points below their average. This trend continued through all four series, as the Spurs had a defensive rating (relative to opponent efficiency) of -8.7 and at 96.6 with Duncan on / 94.4 with Duncan on & D-Rob off. What I find more impressive are the series against Dallas (
https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/2003-nba-western-conference-finals-mavericks-vs-spurs.html) and New Jersey (
https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/2003-nba-finals-nets-vs-spurs.html) where Duncan played good enough as a scorer/creator to keep the Spurs afloat on offense, while anchoring the defense and thwarting both teams well under their average marks. These were both top 4 SRS teams, including Dallas' #1 SRS team that season and a Nets team with a ~98 DRTG - good for first in the league.
When I think of crashing the ATG scene/landscape, a run like this is what I personally think of - and impact signals unanimously love this season. Furthermore from a resume viewpoint, this campaign gave Duncan his second MVP and Finals MVP on a team that seemed to be a secondary-shout due to LA's 3-peat. Some people may look at all-time/vintage playoff runs where one goes the extra miles to get their club over the finish line and this certainly stamps Duncan in that regard.
Apologies if this comes off in a very argumentative lens , just my (very longly worded) 2 cents!
