rand wrote:Three are locks: 2017-2019. 2016 is probable. Every other season is questionable at best.
I'm tempted to throw 2012 and 2021(i'll get to that later) there. 2012 KD was a pretty massive downgrade even relative to 2014 KD imo who i'd probably put on par with 2006-2008 Lebron. Think in much of the same way people ignore the playmaking improvement to undersell nets Durant, people overlook how limited KD was outside of scoring in his "pre-prime". Replacing 2012 KD with almost any prime top 30 year leads to an immediate improvement imo and Miami are probably not surviving the injury stuff they faced vs Boston leading to a relatively easy finals opponent. That 2012 team also did not lack for spacing the way later teams would.
As for 2016(and 2014), I can get why you'd be questionable on Lebron-Westbrook in theory, but I think the "extent" of the penalty is being overstated, especially if we reference what happened the season before...
Westbrook gives massively diminished returns with LeBron relative to with Durant. Nor does LeBronball work very well with OKC's mediocre shooting.
Okay, but a weaker version of Lebron was able to lead a +10 PSRS team, sweep a 60-win opponent, and push the 67-win warriors with terrible shooting and delladova as the second banana. Westbrook-Lebron might lead to some diminishing returns, but Lebron can probably replicate or better his defensive stuff in 2015 if he focused to that end, and as we've seen with wade, Lebron can still do a job on offense paired with similar players. You're talking about a team that took a 70-win team to a woodshed and was a game away from beating the 73 win warriors. You don't think replacing one of the worst examples of playoff-dropping from an arguable top 20er, with a strong most valuable season ever case bridges the gap?
In this scenario where they swap places, the 2016 cavs are probably outright an afterthought. With all the time KD missed, and how bad the cavs were without Lebron those years, the cavs may not be a lock for the playoffs and are realistically not a threat to the okc-spurs-warriors triad.
I see the LeBron-led Thunder winning in 2016 since they were so close and 2012 LeBron in a vacuum is a clear upgrade over 2016 Durant but the other Thunder teams are doubtful.
I'm pretty sure you can make a weaker version of the 2016 case for 2014. The Thunder came close to a game 7 vs the Spurs(lost in overtime) and 2010 Lebron is a pretty seismic upgrade in a vacuum. None of the teams they're facing really have the personnel to replicate what Boston managed, and even if they did, Westbrook was garnering comparable attention to Durant in the Spurs WCF so I'd guess we get something more 2009-like. You also can probably win the first-seed outright with the RS upgrade giving you the advantage of home-court.
The point differential is daunting(10.5), but most of that was based on a single blow-out. And in a more absolute sense, OKC were knocking on the door.
Not a lock, but I'd sort it into
possible. Obviously if you get past SAS, the Heat(or maybe the pacers in this case) should be easy cooking.
I have no idea how OP thinks the 2021 Nets automatically get through Milwaukee.
Well for one, by just about any measure known to man, 2016-2017 Lebron was a vastly better player. Durant was superhuman for Durant standards in a couple of games, but as someone who has defended Nets Durant a-plenty, you're really overhyping this.
KD was superhuman in that series
He was superhuman for like one game, and very good in two others. 16-17 Lebron was
more superhuman against the greatest team ever, and mantained that for the entire postseason. Really, he mantained that for
3 straight-postseasons including 3-straight finals against the greatest team ever. And even when he wasn't so superhuman from a scoring perspective in 2015, he was superhuman at the "winning" bit posting nigh unrivalled impact on the back of absurd playmaking(even by lebron standards) with phenomenal defense(by non-big standards). Really 15-18 Lebron as a whole was substantially more superhuman than Durant was vs the Bucks, let alone 16-17 Lebron who went nova on the greatest team of all time.
and most of his teammates were trash.
Yeah, uh. Not sure what you're basing this off? Durant was outscored(similar volume, worse effiency) by Giannis in 2 games with a fully healthy and functional kyrie Irving. He also benefitted from Bud, for some reason I'm still trying to fathom, sending doubles to Harden and leaving Durant in single coverage in games 6 and 7. Durant's teammates also outshot Giannis's, and crucially, for the four games where Durant had "no help", he only walked away with one win. Ironically, Lebron probably is a
much better fit for that nets team than Durant is, as he's much better at juicing up shooters, and he can function as a defensive anchor. We saw Lebron perform better four times in a row against a much better opponent with significantly less help. The Bucks are probably cooked.
Far from a guarantee that the LeBron-led 2021 Nets beat the Suns either.
Eh? They had their hands full with the Kawhi-less clippers and lost to an extremely flawed Bucks side. Again, we're talking about a guy who can sweep 60-win teams with Matthew delladova in off-years. Now we're giving him a much better shot, much better spacing, and better teammates. Maybe it's not a "lock", but it's at least "probable" imo.
The 2022 Nets might get past Boston given that they were in every game despite KD playing terribly but since they were swept, it's a bit too much for me to say they automatically win with LeBron. They might be favorites over a Middleton-less Bucks but they still have to contend with Giannis who would still crush them defensively. I don't like them vs GS given how weak the Nets are defensively but they would have a chance.
Well you're replacing Durant with a much better player again and the margin was close. Warriors were fairly impressive champions though so I'd sort this into "possible". Love Giannis, but Lebron would be working with a much more talented team. 2018 Lebron can't really boost the defense, but he can probably at least hold his own here. That being said, Kyrie is a wild-card so eh.
If you don't mind, I'll just put my own ratings in bold next to yours. Feel free to dispute
Ring shares per season (1.0 = 100% chance of a ring, 0.5 = 50% chance of a ring, 0.0 = 0% chance of a ring)
2008 Thunder = 0.0
2009 Thunder = 0.0
2010 Thunder = 0.1 (lost to champ Lakers with KD getting squelched; maybe 2006 LeBron does better but even if they win they still have to get through the rest of the field) 0.4 (2010 was an unusually weak field with the celtics and lakers as the finalists. Durant isn't all that until 2013.)
2011 Thunder = 0.1 (if they somehow get through the buzzsaw Mavs they'd have a very tough matchup vs the 2011 Heat) 0.2 Big upgrade imo, but Mavs are a buzz-saw. Heat aren't scary if you're putting baby-durant instead of Lebron though
2012 Thunder = 0.2 (may lose in the West field as KD played fantastic; if they made the Finals it would be a tough series vs Miami) .8 (Saying KD played "fantastic" is scoring blindness me thinks. Lebron is a much better player and the Heat aren't really a threat if you swap Lebron for Durant. Injuries also probably leave the Celtics as your finals opponent
2013 Thunder = 0.0 (no chance with such poor support, probably still don't get past Memphis) 0.0. The 2013 Spurs are a bridge too far
2014 Thunder = 0.1 0.5. aforementioned reasons
2015 Thunder = 0.3 0.8, Prime Westbrook and Lebron is probably enough, see the 2015 Cavs and 2016 Thunder for reference
2016 Thunder = 0.7 1, for aforementioned reasons
2017 Warriors = 1.0 1.0, duh
2018 Warriors = 1.0 1.0, also duh
2019 Warriors = 1.0 0.7, injuries make things dicey and if the Bucks find a way, they're a very scary matchup
2020 Nets = 0.5 0.7, Could be done but the Heat, the Bucks, Nuggets, Celtics, and the Raptors are all formidable challenges for a one-star team. This is my pick for best modern peak ever though...so
2021 Nets = 0.3 0.8. Honestly your weirdest scoring choice imo
2022 Nets = 0.2 0.3, Don't see the bucks as that imposing
Total ring shares = 5.5. So I say either 5 or 6 rings. 8.2, so I guess that rounds down to 8
It's worth noting that KD himself might have 1-3 more rings if it weren't for his own injuries. 2019 for sure, possibly 2015 and 2020 as well.I give him no chance vs the 2020 Lakers, and he's a pretty clear underdog vs the 2015 Dubs. 2019 is probable, but the Rockets series inspires enough doubt for me to call it a lock.