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How many contending seasons did Lebron James and Michael Jordan each have?

Posted: Thu Feb 16, 2023 9:09 pm
by f4p
How many contending seasons did Lebron James and Michael Jordan each have?

I would like to have threads for most of the Top 30-ish guys like a mini-project or something, so hopefully there is some response to this. It will be interesting to see what people say on Lebron, who makes the finals constantly but also faces ridiculous competition in the finals.

Barkley and Karl Malone Thread
Garnett and Nowitzki Thread
Kobe and Bird Thread
West and Erving Thread

This is relative: If a team wins 57 games and no one else wins more than 52, they're probably a contender. If a team wins 57 games and 3 teams win 65+ and they have to beat all of them on the road, they're probably not a contender.

This is not a supporting cast question: If Bill Russell plus 4 guys from the Y win the title, that's a contender. If Charles Barkley and 4 guys from the Y win 30 games, that's not a contender. Of course, if it's Barkley and 4 all-stars and they only win 30 games, you could still say they were a contender and just underperformed.

This is dynamic: It's really a "Did a team have a chance to win it all?" question. If things outside of a team's control help/hurt, take that into account. This includes injuries. The 2000 Spurs might have been contenders, but not once Tim Duncan missed the playoffs. However, if it's new information in a team's control, like if they're the 8th seed and upset the 1st seed, that's just a great series by a non-contender, not the birth of a new contender. The 2007 Cavs aren't necessarily contenders even while making the Finals, the 2007 Mavs are even though they lost in the 1st round.

Optional (but not optional): Apply weights to contending seasons. This isn't championship odds so the numbers aren't supposed to add up to 1.0 for each season. I would say something like below, but choose whatever you want:

1.0 - Favorite / Co-Favorite ('85 Lakers and Celtics?)
0.75 - 2nd best team but there is a strong favorite ('97 Jazz?) / Top 3-4 team in wide open field (Top 2-3 in the 60's?)
0.5 - 2nd best team but there is a dominant favorite ('96 Sonics / '17 Cavs?) / 3rd best team behind co-favorites / Top 4-6 team in wide open field (Top 3-4 in the 60's?)
0.25 - Fringe contender, lots of things need to go right, but not like "once in NBA history" right (if you're the 5th or maybe even 4th seed, you probably don't qualify most years)

An example for Charles Barkley could be:

1985 - 0.5
1993 - 1.0
1994 - 0.75
1995 - 0.75
1997 - 0.25

OhayoKD wrote:.

AEnigma wrote:.

Owly wrote:.

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falcolombardi wrote:.

Dutchball97 wrote:.

Re: How many contending seasons did Lebron James and Michael Jordan each have?

Posted: Thu Feb 16, 2023 9:24 pm
by MiamiBulls
Lebron
'06: 0
'07: 0.25
'08: 0.25
'09: 0.5
'10: 0.5
'11: 1.0
'12: 1.0
'13: 1.0
'14: 1.0
'15: 0.75
'16: 0.5
'17: 0.5
'18: 0.5
'19: 0
'20: 0.75
'21: 0.25
'22: 0
'23: 0

Jordan
'85: 0
'86: 0
'87: 0
'88: 0.25
'89: 0.25
'90: 0.75
'91: 1.0
'92: 1.0
'93: 1.0
'95: 0.25
'96: 1.0
'97: 1.0
'98: 0.75

Re: How many contending seasons did Lebron James and Michael Jordan each have?

Posted: Thu Feb 16, 2023 11:07 pm
by AEnigma
Jordan: 0 first three years and 1995, 0.25 in 1988, 0.5 in 1989 (maybe fifth best team in my eyes), 0.75 in 1990, and 1 in every title year.

Lebron:
2006 — … 0.25 at best, but tough to care about not a top five team.
2007 — … 0.25; I really only see three legitimate contending teams that year (plus the mythic healthy Rockets), and the Pistons themselves were only like a 0.5.
2008 — 0.5; I think Ben Wallace situated them as a good playoff team
2009 — uhhh tough because that team had no business being a 1 but every base level indication said they were.
2010 — 0.75; got worse while Magic and Celtics and Suns all improved.
2011 — 1 sadly
2012 — again tough, because the Spurs and Thunder looked better, and people were unsure about the Heat after 2011, so I can see arguments for 1 (common sense) or 0.75 (fourth in SRS, just disappointed during the previous postseason).
2013 — 1
2014 — 0.75; Spurs were clear 1, and Heat were a step down with the Thunder and Clippers
2015 — 0.75 considering health; on par with Clippers when healthy and below Warriors, but more playoff experience than either
2016 — 0.75; Warriors and Spurs more dominant, and Thunder good when healthy
2017 — 0.75; Warriors and Spurs still too good
2018 — 0.5 (honestly could be 0.25 relative to the Warriors)
2019 — 0 (injury)
2020 — 1
2021 — 0.5 with injuries
2022 — 0
2023 — probably capping out at 0.5

Re: How many contending seasons did Lebron James and Michael Jordan each have?

Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2023 12:25 am
by DQuinn1575
AEnigma wrote:Jordan: 0 first three years and 1995, 0.25 in 1988, 0.5 in 1989 (maybe fifth best team in my eyes), 0.75 in 1990, and 1 in every title year.

Lebron: will edit later


Bulls were 13-4 in 95 with Jordan,
SRS full season is 5th in the league
need to be 0.25

Re: How many contending seasons did Lebron James and Michael Jordan each have?

Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2023 12:28 am
by AEnigma
Yeah probably fair I guess. I did not believe in that team, but their regular season indicators were good enough to be a 0.25 or even a 0.5.

Re: How many contending seasons did Lebron James and Michael Jordan each have?

Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2023 5:02 am
by dygaction
Based on the results, Jordan did convert a lot more opportunities to victories, GOAT!

Re: How many contending seasons did Lebron James and Michael Jordan each have?

Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2023 9:27 am
by OhayoKD
dygaction wrote:Based on the results, Jordan did convert a lot more opportunities to victories, GOAT!

Or jordan was worse at creating opportunities :wink:

Re: How many contending seasons did Lebron James and Michael Jordan each have?

Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2023 12:46 pm
by Jaivl
dygaction wrote:Based on the results, Jordan did convert a lot more opportunities to victories, GOAT!

It's not a supporting cast question, or else for example 1995 would be an easy 1

Re: How many contending seasons did Lebron James and Michael Jordan each have?

Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2023 2:17 pm
by Colbinii
dygaction wrote:Based on the results, Jordan did convert a lot more opportunities to victories, GOAT!


Correlation =/= Causation

Re: How many contending seasons did Lebron James and Michael Jordan each have?

Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2023 2:19 pm
by dygaction
Jaivl wrote:
dygaction wrote:Based on the results, Jordan did convert a lot more opportunities to victories, GOAT!

It's not a supporting cast question, or else for example 1995 would be an easy 1


Not 1 because Jordan was rusted not ready.

Re: How many contending seasons did Lebron James and Michael Jordan each have?

Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2023 2:22 pm
by dygaction
Colbinii wrote:
dygaction wrote:Based on the results, Jordan did convert a lot more opportunities to victories, GOAT!


Correlation =/= Causation


If it took one person 15 tries to shoot down 3 birds but another 9 tries to shoot down 5, we can say one is better than the other

Re: How many contending seasons did Lebron James and Michael Jordan each have?

Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2023 2:32 pm
by Colbinii
dygaction wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
dygaction wrote:Based on the results, Jordan did convert a lot more opportunities to victories, GOAT!


Correlation =/= Causation


If it took one person 15 tries to shoot down 3 birds but another 9 tries to shoot down 5, we can say one is better than the other


I think the hold-up here is this one person comment.

LeBron and Jordan aren't playing in one on one tournaments. They also aren't shooting the same Birds. Jordan was shooting a ground turkey while LeBron was shooting grouse in a bunch of trees.

You also have to understand this scale isn't linear. Four seasons of .25 =/= one season of 1

Re: How many contending seasons did Lebron James and Michael Jordan each have?

Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2023 2:47 pm
by Medbrat
Bron 12, Jordan 6. Bron is a MUCH better floor raiser, hence his teams were almost always at least a dark horse.

Re: How many contending seasons did Lebron James and Michael Jordan each have?

Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2023 2:58 pm
by dygaction
Medbrat wrote:Bron 12, Jordan 6. Bron is a MUCH better floor raiser, hence his teams were almost always at least a dark horse.



So the conversion rates are Bron 12->4 and Jordan 6->6

or LBJ appeared as a bright horse but was proven to be a pony

Re: How many contending seasons did Lebron James and Michael Jordan each have?

Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2023 3:02 pm
by Colbinii
Medbrat wrote:Bron 12, Jordan 6. Bron is a MUCH better floor raiser, hence his teams were almost always at least a dark horse.


Wouldn't he be a great ceiling raiser as well since getting to the Finals means you are elevating a team to a high ceiling as most teams don't have a ceiling of the NBA Finals?

Re: How many contending seasons did Lebron James and Michael Jordan each have?

Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2023 3:03 pm
by Joao Saraiva
Jordan was a contender at least from 88 to 98 with the exception of 94. Or at least a dark horse. lol @ 95 doesn't count and stuff like that.

If Bron 07 is a contender then MJ definitely was a contender too.

Re: How many contending seasons did Lebron James and Michael Jordan each have?

Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2023 3:11 pm
by Jaivl
dygaction wrote:
Jaivl wrote:
dygaction wrote:Based on the results, Jordan did convert a lot more opportunities to victories, GOAT!

It's not a supporting cast question, or else for example 1995 would be an easy 1


Not 1 because Jordan was rusted not ready.

Well how is that's not Jordan's problem?

Re: How many contending seasons did Lebron James and Michael Jordan each have?

Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2023 3:23 pm
by dygaction
Jaivl wrote:
dygaction wrote:
Jaivl wrote:It's not a supporting cast question, or else for example 1995 would be an easy 1


Not 1 because Jordan was rusted not ready.

Well how is that's not Jordan's problem?


Where did you get that? Of course it was Jordan’s problem.

Re: How many contending seasons did Lebron James and Michael Jordan each have?

Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2023 3:30 pm
by Djoker
Betting odds at the beginning of the postseason are good tells as far as how the teams were perceived.

Lebron James
Year Betting Odds Implied Odds Outcome
2006 1800 (7th) 5.3% Lost in 2nd Round
2007 1200 (6th) 7.7% Lost in Finals
2008 2500 (9th) 3.8% Lost in 2nd Round
2009 160 (T-1st) 38.5% Lost in CF
2010 160 (1st) 38.5% Lost in 2nd Round
2011 300 (2nd) 25.0% Lost in Finals
2012 200 (1st) 33.3% Championship
2013 -125 (1st) 55.6% Championship
2014 200 (1st) 33.3% Lost in Finals
2015 225 (2nd) 30.8% Lost in Finals
2016 475 (3rd) 17.4% Championship
2017 405 (2nd) 19.8% Lost in Finals
2018 800 (3rd) 11.1% Lost in Finals
2020 280 (2nd) 26.3% Championship
2021 400 (2nd) 20.0% Lost in 1st Round

Expected Titles: 3.664

Michael Jordan
Year Betting Odds Implied Odds Outcome
1985 4000 (T-12th) 2.4% Lost in 1st Round
1986 50000 (16th) 0.2% Lost in 1st Round
1987 3.0% Lost in 1st Round estimate
1988 1200 (7th) 7.7% Lost in 2nd Round
1989 2000 (10th) 4.8% Lost in CF
1990 800 (4th) 11.1% Lost in CF
1991 250 (T-1st) 28.6% Championship
1992 -200 (1st) 66.7% Championship
1993 300 (2nd) 25.0% Championship
1995 500 (2nd) 16.7% Lost in 2nd Round
1996 -400 (1st) 80.0% Championship
1997 -200 (1st) 66.7% Championship
1998 140 (1st) 41.7% Championship

Expected Titles: 3.546

Lebron's teams were contenders every year from 2009-2021 (except 2019) so that's 12 years.
Jordan's teams were contenders every year from 1990-1993 and 1995-1998 so that's 8 years.

However we can exclude Lebron in 2015 and 2021 due to teammate injury. And Pippen did have that migraine in Game 7 in 1990 and was totally useless in that pivotal game. So that's 10 contending years for Lebron and 7 for Jordan in my book.

Re: How many contending seasons did Lebron James and Michael Jordan each have?

Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2023 4:02 pm
by dygaction
Djoker wrote:Betting odds at the beginning of the postseason are good tells as far as how the teams were perceived.

Lebron James
Year Betting Odds Implied Odds Outcome
2006 1800 (7th) 5.3% Lost in 2nd Round
2007 1200 (6th) 7.7% Lost in Finals
2008 2500 (9th) 3.8% Lost in 2nd Round
2009 160 (T-1st) 38.5% Lost in CF
2010 160 (1st) 38.5% Lost in 2nd Round
2011 300 (2nd) 25.0% Lost in Finals
2012 200 (1st) 33.3% Championship
2013 -125 (1st) 55.6% Championship
2014 200 (1st) 33.3% Lost in Finals
2015 225 (2nd) 30.8% Lost in Finals
2016 475 (3rd) 17.4% Championship
2017 405 (2nd) 19.8% Lost in Finals
2018 800 (3rd) 11.1% Lost in Finals
2020 280 (2nd) 26.3% Championship
2021 400 (2nd) 20.0% Lost in 1st Round

Expected Titles: 3.664

Michael Jordan
Year Betting Odds Implied Odds Outcome
1985 4000 (T-12th) 2.4% Lost in 1st Round
1986 50000 (16th) 0.2% Lost in 1st Round
1987 3.0% Lost in 1st Round estimate
1988 1200 (7th) 7.7% Lost in 2nd Round
1989 2000 (10th) 4.8% Lost in CF
1990 800 (4th) 11.1% Lost in CF
1991 250 (T-1st) 28.6% Championship
1992 -200 (1st) 66.7% Championship
1993 300 (2nd) 25.0% Championship
1995 500 (2nd) 16.7% Lost in 2nd Round
1996 -400 (1st) 80.0% Championship
1997 -200 (1st) 66.7% Championship
1998 140 (1st) 41.7% Championship

Expected Titles: 3.546

Lebron's teams were contenders every year from 2009-2021 (except 2019) so that's 12 years.
Jordan's teams were contenders every year from 1990-1993 and 1995-1998 so that's 8 years.

However we can exclude Lebron in 2015 and 2021 due to teammate injury. And Pippen did have that migraine in Game 7 in 1990 and was totally useless in that pivotal game. So that's 10 contending years for Lebron and 7 for Jordan in my book.


this kind of approach makes the most sense by factoring into supporting cast and real competitors each year.
LBJ is great, Meeting expectations
MJ is the greatest as shown because he far exceeded the expectations