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2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

Posted: Mon Mar 13, 2023 11:32 pm
by Doctor MJ
Hi All!

The time draws near for us to come together again and give our say on who, when all is said and done in June, is most deserving of the great accolades of 2021-22.

This is something we began in 2010 with the Retro Player of the Year project which took us back to the dawn of the Shot Clock Era, and it's something we've continued since - with the addition of other awards beginning in 2015.

Here's a link to the original thread:

Retro Player of the Year Project

That thread has links to votings from individual years as well as the spreadsheets, which I'll be posting again below:

RealGM All-Season Award Winners

RealGM All-Season Awards Shares through 22-23

What are the awards and how will we vote for them?

Player of the Year
Only 5 man ballot.
Vote weighting the same as NBA MVP: 10-7-5-3-1.
To be based on actual basketball achievement this NBA season - not a statement of who you'd draft first, or any other reasoning.

But that is still intended to give you a lot of room for your own vantage point, which you will be expected to speak from when you vote.

This is the original award, and the only award you must vote for.

All other awards will have a 3 man ballot using the 5-3-1 voting scheme the NBA uses for its other awards.

The other awards:

Offensive Player of the Year
Defensive Player of the Year
Rookie of the Year
Most Improved Player
6th Man of the Year
Coach of the Year
Executive of the Year

All awards should be seen from an achievement-oriented perspective like the POY, however the concept of achievement admittedly gets murkier the more you go down the list. Be sincere and open about what you put forward, and I'm sure it will be great.

One more note: All ballots must be complete in order to count. If you simply put down first place votes, it won't count. If you forget to type a name for the last spot on some award, your vote for that award won't count.

How do we become voters?

1. Participate in this thread sincerely and frequently. Note: Voters from previous years are allowed more wiggle room on this.
2. PM me.

When and where will we vote?

Typically voting opens within a week of the last NBA Finals game, and goes for a week.

Voting Body

1. The-Power
2. AEnigma
3. Ambrose
4. ardee
5. Colbinii
6. Doctor MJ
7. Dutchball97
8. eminence
9. GSP
10. HeartBreakKid
11. iggymcfrack
12. jalengreen
13. jazzfan1971
14. MyUniBroDavis
15. OkayoKD
16. Outside
17. TexasChuck
18. rk2023
19. SpreeS

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2023 10:04 am
by Dutchball97
I'd like to start with OPOY because as of right now it's probably the most clear ranking to me. Jokic seems like a clear leader with him being 1st in O-BPM, O-RAPTOR and O-RAPM, while being 2nd in in O-EPM and O-LEBRON. The runner-up would be Dame as he's 1st in the two stats Jokic doesn't lead, 2nd in O-BPM and O-RAPTOR and 5th in O-RAPM. Luka is 3rd in every stat but O-RAPM where he's 10th so he also looks like a pretty clear number 3.

However, like with most categories, a lot is going to depend on how the play-offs turn out. Dame and Luka don't really look likely to make it out of the 1st round if they even make it there in the first place so I don't think their place in the top 3 is nearly as secure as it seems for Jokic. LeBron, SGA and arguably Haliburton could be in the conversation but are on teams that are just as, if not more, unlikely than the Blazers and Mavs to make waves in the post-season so I doubt they'll play a serious role in the race. Embiid/Harden and Booker/KD are duos where both guys are in the convo but unless they make it to the finals, it's unlikely there's enough credit to go around to get both or even either one of them in the top 3.

Curry is probably the closest to the top 3 right now in terms of offensive performance but he's hurt by the amount of games he's missed, like the Suns and 76ers, the Warriors will need to make a deep run for Curry to even get the opportunity to make a case. After that it's likely Tatum and Giannis who are up there too and are on teams that are actually likely to make deep runs with them being the clear leaders for their teams.

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:23 pm
by AEnigma
Player of the Year:
Jokic and Giannis are near locks barring catastrophe. Jokic might be a lock even if he misses the rest of the season from this point (will note that he would need to have his best ever playoff run for me to consider him at #1). Everyone else is heavily playoff dependent. Luka has a decent playoff track record by now, but if he misses the postseason, I will struggle to fit him into the top five. When healthy, Lebron, Steph, Kawhi, Davis, and Embiid all have historically been able to lay strong claim to a spot with their postseason performances. Durant struggled last year, but he will not see the same calibre of defence in the western conference unless he runs into the fully healthy Lakers, and he certainly will not face the same level of defensive attention. I have not been a Tatum believer, but he can prove me wrong. Butler has been more interesting, although he will be operating at a deficit based on Miami’s regular season. Donovan Mitchell would need an extraordinary run, as would most other players in his tier.

For reference, in 2022 my ballot would have been:
1/2. Giannis and Steph (likely leaning Giannis)
3. Jokic
4. Luka
5. Butler or Tatum (agonising decision but probably would lean Butler)

And that was with Lebron/Kawhi/Davis all absent from the postseason and Durant having what was likely his worst since 2013.

Offensive Player of the Year:
#1 will be Jokic, barring a Steve Nash level postseason run from someone else. Variable past that. Names in mind include Luka, Steph, Lillard (below Steph), Sabonis, Haliburton, Harden, Lebron… possibly Mitchell or Durant depending on the postseason… Brunson conceivably with some spectacular play… maybe Shai or Lauri, but without a postseason series that will be tricky.

For reference, in 2022 my ballot would have been Jokic, Steph, and Luka.

Defensive Player of the Year
Monitoring Giannis, JJJ, Davis, Draymond (well-earned postseason reputation), Bam, Brook, Claxton, Embiid, and Mobley. For reference, in 2022 my ballot would have been Draymond, Giannis, and Gobert.

Rookie of the Year:
Last year I think I had the same as the official results, although probably could have been swayed on replacing Cade. This year, looking at Banchero, Jalen Williams, Walker Kessler, and Benedict Mathurin. A nice postseason performance could help those latter three, as well as Keegan Murray.

Most Improved:
Always an odd philosophical question considering age. Lauri my likely frontrunner. Claxton likely to make my top three. Mixed on Shai’s candidacy. Less mixed on Brunson’s, but there too, never been a fan of awarding this simply to those who were given increased primacy. Probably would not have bothered with a ballot last year.

Sixth Man of the Year:
Quickley leading. Maxey needs to stay on the bench but can probably be second if he does. Prefer Grant Williams to Brogdon (really more of a seventh man), but Reaves is my actual third choice and may even find a way to climb higher. Probably would not have bothered with a ballot last year.

Coach of the Year:
Not seriously considering this until the postseason is complete. Previous winners for me would have been 2021 Snyder/Lue and 2019/20 Nurse and Budenholzer. Probably would not have bothered with a ballot last year.

Executive of the Year:
Never consider this until the postseason is complete. Philosophically, I am looking for moves which significantly improved a roster’s ability and likelihood to win a title, e.g. I would likely give it to McNair if the Kings made a run to the Finals. Previous winners for me would have been 2021 Horst (Bucks), 2020 Pat Riley, 2019 Masai, and 2018 Morey. Probably would not have bothered with a ballot last year.

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:38 pm
by Colbinii
AEnigma wrote:Rookie of the Year:
Last year I think I had the same as the official results, although probably could have been swayed on replacing Cade. This year, looking at Banchero, Jalen Williams, Walker Kessler, and Benedict Mathurin. A nice postseason performance could help those latter three, as well as Keegan Murray.


There are typically two different avenues when assessing ROTY. On one hand, who played the best [advanced metrics, impact stats] and on the other hand there is "This player looks like a future All-NBA player". I feel like this year is a great year to compare the two with Walker Kessler [Impact + Advanced Numbers Darling in a limited role] versus Paolo Banchero [Poor efficiency but has flashed all the tools to make you think he will be great].

How do you view ROTY?

Most Improved:
Always an odd philosophical question considering age. Lauri my likely frontrunner. Claxton likely to make my top three. Mixed on Shai’s candidacy. Less mixed on Brunson’s, but there too, never been a fan of awarding this simply to those who were given increased primacy. Probably would not have bothered with a ballot last year.


Lauri seems like a strong candidate but SGA has made the most important leap, no? I voted for Embiid a few years back when he made the leap from Top 10-15 guy to MVP candidate and I feel SGA has made a similar leap [from low-end all-star to All-NBA].

I feel like this leap is far more important than going from average starter to weak all-star [See Lauri].

Coach of the Year:
Not seriously considering this until the postseason is complete. Previous winners for me would have been 2021 Snyder/Lue and 2019/20 Nurse and Budenholzer. Probably would not have bothered with a ballot last year.


Mike Brown. I also like Finch in Minnesota [how many teams would be in the playoffs with their best/2nd best player only playing 20 games?] and then Jacque Vaughn in Brooklyn.

Executive of the Year:
Never consider this until the postseason is complete. Philosophically, I am looking for moves which significantly improved a roster’s ability and likelihood to win a title, e.g. I would likely give it to McNair if the Kings made a run to the Finals. Previous winners for me would have been 2021 Horst (Bucks), 2020 Pat Riley, 2019 Masai, and 2018 Morey. Probably would not have bothered with a ballot last year.


This is an award that is weird as often moves made 1, 2 or 3 years ago are what is affecting a team to be great today.

God forbid the Timberwolves make the NBA Finals, I think Tim Connelly instantly jumps to the top.
I don't award teams who sell their players [See Utah] as that is only completing half the race in the NBA [Acquire Assets then turning them into a Star in some capacity, whether it be draft well or make trades].
If Philly wins it all, Daryl Morey could be in the running even though he has kept Doc Rivers while an appearance in June by Cleveland puts Koby Altman on the map.

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2023 2:05 pm
by AEnigma
Colbinii wrote:
AEnigma wrote:Rookie of the Year:
Last year I think I had the same as the official results, although probably could have been swayed on replacing Cade. This year, looking at Banchero, Jalen Williams, Walker Kessler, and Benedict Mathurin. A nice postseason performance could help those latter three, as well as Keegan Murray.

There are typically two different avenues when assessing ROTY. On one hand, who played the best [advanced metrics, impact stats] and on the other hand there is "This player looks like a future All-NBA player". I feel like this year is a great year to compare the two with Walker Kessler [Impact + Advanced Numbers Darling in a limited role] versus Paolo Banchero [Poor efficiency but has flashed all the tools to make you think he will be great].

How do you view ROTY?

Uh, both. Load and role matters to me, but there is a reason I did not mention anyone on the true tanking teams.

Most Improved:
Always an odd philosophical question considering age. Lauri my likely frontrunner. Claxton likely to make my top three. Mixed on Shai’s candidacy. Less mixed on Brunson’s, but there too, never been a fan of awarding this simply to those who were given increased primacy. Probably would not have bothered with a ballot last year.

Lauri seems like a strong candidate but SGA has made the most important leap, no? I voted for Embiid a few years back when he made the leap from Top 10-15 guy to MVP candidate and I feel SGA has made a similar leap [from low-end all-star to All-NBA].

I feel like this leap is far more important than going from average starter to weak all-star [See Lauri].

Which is why age and realistic projections matter to me. Should Steph have won in 2015… and then again in 2016? Should Giannis have won two years in a row going from 2018 to 2019? 2021 to 2022 Jokic?

In any case, for Shai I do not see this as a radical improvement.

30.4/5.8/7.9 on 63.4% efficiency with 0.9 blocks, 1.7 steals, and 3.9 turnovers per game.
31.2/4.8/5.6 on 62.5% efficiency with 1.1 blocks, 1.7 steals, and 2.9 turnovers per game.

The former is what he averaged in his last stretch before the Thunder shut him down. He is better now, yes, but those flashes have been there for a while. Not going to criticise votes for Shai because the award has wildly differing rationale depending on the voter, but by my standards, Lauri made a much less expected leap at an older age and with more time spent in the league.

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2023 3:17 pm
by Colbinii
AEnigma wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
AEnigma wrote:Rookie of the Year:
Last year I think I had the same as the official results, although probably could have been swayed on replacing Cade. This year, looking at Banchero, Jalen Williams, Walker Kessler, and Benedict Mathurin. A nice postseason performance could help those latter three, as well as Keegan Murray.

There are typically two different avenues when assessing ROTY. On one hand, who played the best [advanced metrics, impact stats] and on the other hand there is "This player looks like a future All-NBA player". I feel like this year is a great year to compare the two with Walker Kessler [Impact + Advanced Numbers Darling in a limited role] versus Paolo Banchero [Poor efficiency but has flashed all the tools to make you think he will be great].

How do you view ROTY?

Uh, both. Load and role matters to me, but there is a reason I did not mention anyone on the true tanking teams.


Jalen Williams is someone who has vaulted up the ROTY ladder for me.

Which is why age and realistic projections matter to me. Should Steph have won in 2015… and then again in 2016? Should Giannis have won two years in a row going from 2018 to 2019? 2021 to 2022 Jokic?


I actually didn't project Shai to be this good. I had him pegged as a worse projection than Anthony Edwards for example. Hindsight is 20-20, but I don't know how productive it is to retroactively change my view of him from the past to justify him being this good now.

RE Steph: I think he was a Top 5 guy in 2014 so I don't see him making the Leap to "Top 5" in 2015 [or 2016].
RE Giannis: Again, I think he was a Top 5 guy in 2019.
RE Jokic: He was already an MVP.

Embiid's jump was massive from 2020 to 2021.

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:00 pm
by Texas Chuck
Colbinii wrote:There are typically two different avenues when assessing ROTY. On one hand, who played the best [advanced metrics, impact stats] and on the other hand there is "This player looks like a future All-NBA player".


Yep. I think if I'm not mistaken, Doc is real big on a projection. For me the award is ROY so I'd give it to the guy who was the most effective that year. I don't view it as prospect of the year. Now a lot of times its the same guy. Right? Luka was clearly the best rookie and the best prospect. But I'm okay with Michael Carter Williams or Tyreke Evans even if they aren't future stars.

But its always interesting to see how people view it differently from me. Same with most improved. I have zero issues with that being a 2nd year guy if they improved the most, but I understand how some feel like that's not the intention of the award, and I would agree its probably not the intention of the award.

I'm think I'm just too literal by nature. It's why my MVP voting wouldn't change year to year. I'd have had it go from Mike to Shaq to Tim to Lebron with a Steph year mixed in maybe, then Giannis got his turn, and I might vote Jokic for another 4 or 5 years if he keeps playing like this. He's just the most valuable guy in the league. Even if someone else has a better one off season. Duncan was the most valuable player even if KG or Nash might have had a better statistical season one year, you know?

But I'm glad you are examining these types of questions. To me its the approach everyone takes that I find so interesting. Less so who they end up voting for.

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2023 10:11 pm
by Doctor MJ
Texas Chuck wrote:
Colbinii wrote:There are typically two different avenues when assessing ROTY. On one hand, who played the best [advanced metrics, impact stats] and on the other hand there is "This player looks like a future All-NBA player".


Yep. I think if I'm not mistaken, Doc is real big on a projection. For me the award is ROY so I'd give it to the guy who was the most effective that year. I don't view it as prospect of the year. Now a lot of times its the same guy. Right? Luka was clearly the best rookie and the best prospect. But I'm okay with Michael Carter Williams or Tyreke Evans even if they aren't future stars.

But its always interesting to see how people view it differently from me. Same with most improved. I have zero issues with that being a 2nd year guy if they improved the most, but I understand how some feel like that's not the intention of the award, and I would agree its probably not the intention of the award.

I'm think I'm just too literal by nature. It's why my MVP voting wouldn't change year to year. I'd have had it go from Mike to Shaq to Tim to Lebron with a Steph year mixed in maybe, then Giannis got his turn, and I might vote Jokic for another 4 or 5 years if he keeps playing like this. He's just the most valuable guy in the league. Even if someone else has a better one off season. Duncan was the most valuable player even if KG or Nash might have had a better statistical season one year, you know?

But I'm glad you are examining these types of questions. To me its the approach everyone takes that I find so interesting. Less so who they end up voting for.


I'm with you that the approach people use is one of the most interesting things, and sometimes that ends up changing my vote. Last year I was against Gary Payton II for 6MOY until almost the very end when falco and others swung me.

And I certainly don't think you're tool literal simply because you're consistent with your MVP voting.

Re: My personal ROY approach, let me clarify:

First, whatever I say about my personal approach, this is distinct from the more general guidelines of the project. These are awards to be based on this year's play rather than a more general sense of goodness, but beyond that, I'm not saying approaches that differ from mine are unacceptable.

To the specific question, let me sub-out MCW & Reke because to me those are the kind of guys I'd expect to vote for too.

The original case that left me thinking about this was actually '06-07 with Paul Millsap. While Millsap eventually proved to be an all-star, and thus a guy who I wouldn't particularly want to prevent from winning the ROY, as a rookie he was a 6 PPG guy playing 18 MPG and thus not a traditional ROY candidate.

But he was someone who was actually effective in the context of a contending team from day 1, whereas other guys who are given something closer to star primacy were generally too problematic in that role to actually play star on a contending team.

From this perspective, it's entirely possible that a back-up role player was the Most Valuable Rookie of the season over the proto-stars, and thus I would say a not-insane pick for ROY if you're thinking of the award as MVR.

Another guy like this, who didn't age as well, was Landry Fields. He got in just the right niche as a rookie and added value from the jump (which incidentally probably has everything to do with why he's now an NBA GM, oddly enough). But nobody saw him as a player who was ever going to be good enough that "the public needs to know him" in the sense of giving him an award.

MCW & Reke are actually on the other side of this as guys given high primacy but inefficient and largely ineffective by any seriously competitive standard, and thus not serious MVR candidates...yet certainly more likely to become stars than guys who look like role players at best, and thus they have a good argument for ROY.

Frankly, if I could tell with a certainty that guys who look like MCW & Reke as rookies would end up so blah, I'd probably go with more of an MVR approach...but dismissing them means also dismissing the Kevin Durants of the world, and to me that just doesn't make sense no matter how ineffective KD was to start his career.

Now as I say this, it's not that I absolutely refuse to consider actual value when considering ROY candidates, but it's more of a tiebreaker in most cases.

Noteworthy example of this is my vote for KAT as ROY, when Jokic was a candidate. Within his role, Jokic was considerably more effective than KAT back then...but he was coming off the bench averaging 10 PPG & 2 APG. I did not feel comfortable siding with Jokic because KAT had proven more within the high primacy role required for stardom. Looking back I can now say that probably wasn't just better than KAT back then, but was quite possibly better as a rookie than KAT will ever be, but I can't say that I'd vote any different in an analogous circumstance in the future because of the Landry Fieldses of the world.

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2023 12:00 am
by eminence
My general overview of the POY race til now. 4-5 guys I see with a relatively clear path. Jokic - obvious dominance til now, if nobody steps could wind up with a default win, but I’d like to see continued dominance and see how the Nuggets match up against some different squads. Giannis/Embiid/Tatum - could be some real interesting 2nd round matchups, and if any of them go all the way I could see a scenario where they wind up on top, and all likely wind up somewhere on the ballot. The other I could semi realistically see is Curry, but could also easily wind up out of the running if they don’t go deep. Luka - good chance he’s on the ballot, but I find it unlikely he’s my winner. I consider anyone outside of those 6 a bit of a longshot right now.

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2023 12:54 am
by GSP
There are prolly gonna be 4 of the 5 players being international....Was there ever a time there was more than 2 (Dirk and Nash)?

Sga is Canadian. Lauri only 25yo star his 1st year as the first option. Wemby looks generational. There could be a season soon where theres no Americans in top 5..............

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2023 1:14 am
by Doctor MJ
Figured I'd speak to some of the other wrinkles in these awards:

1. The big one is how to factor in the regular season compared to the playoffs. On one end of the spectrum you could treat all games as having equal importance, on the other you could ignore the regular season entirely.

The approach I've been using for some time is to begin my process in earnest with an end-of-RS ranking, and then adjust in a positive direction based on playoff work. So, no matter how bad a player looks in the playoffs, I typically won't drop him below a player he was previously ahead of. That other player may rise ahead of the bad-playoff performer based on his own play, but unless the bad-playoff performer does something so bad it makes me re-interpret the regular season.

Probably the best example here for me is Rudy Gobert in '20-21. While I ended up just barely putting Nikola Jokic ahead of Gobert for MVP, I thought Gobert had a great case for being the most valuable player of the season, and so, for example, I had Gobert ahead of Steph Curry in MVP and ahead of Draymond Green for RS DPOY.

Gobert than had a playoffs he'd rather forget and it certainly made me feel like Curry & Green were actually better players that season...but they didn't make the playoffs, so they couldn't truly rise above Gobert.

Had Gobert's playoff performance made me conclude that he wasn't actually that valuable in the regular season that would have been different...but since the problem was (at that time) really only a playoff thing, he remained above them in my vote.

As stated, there are plenty of other ways to do this, but this is my way of continuing to honor regular season even as I give playoff work primacy.

2. What about injuries? People do this in many different ways. Some look to penalize all comparable missed time evenly. Some look to specifically penalize the playoffs harshly.

My approach is to consider ignoring missed time that ends up having no historically significant consequence.

Example: Last year, when Draymond missed half the regular season it certainly hurt him in the RS DPOY race...but for me picking him as my All-Season DPOY was pretty straight forward. I thought that when he played he was the best defender in the league, particularly in the playoffs, and this allowed the Warriors to win the championship, so the missed time didn't really matter in the end.

People will point out the lack of consilience with the counter factual where Green plays for another team that missed the playoffs due to his missed time, and they are right to do so. But I've not encountered an approach that feels more right to me than the one I've described, so I continue to use it.

3. OPOY & DPOY are tricky specifically because while they may represent two opposite sides of the ball, in reality, it's not clear cut how to draw the line between the two. Folks probably know that I like +/- data, which through regression can give distinct offensive vs defensive impact estimations...but sometimes a guy's defensive play helps his team's offense and vice versa.

I generally try not to give a guy credit on offense for defensive play and vice versa, which means I'm always making my best assessment of how much of a guy's total impact should be allocated to each side. So while I look at the offensive vs defensive regressions in my baseline, sometimes I think it can be misleading.

4a. We've had a number of interesting conversations about MIP over the years, as have the mainstream people. For me, '09-10 was a formative year for me on the subject, because the NBA voters gave the nod to Aaron Brooks while Kevin Durant's turning-of-the-corner was far more profound.

While I understand the argument of MIP being beneath someone like Durant, if the alternative is choosing a player who really isn't significant even after the improvement, and thus will only be remembered with furrowed brows in the future, I'd rather pick the star.

What I try to keep as my north star here is the idea that the MIP needs to be someone worth drawing the attention of casual fans to (I use this similarly for ROY, in both cases, there's a real cost to bringing attention to players that will never move the proverbial needle). A player who goes from a fringe bench guy to a real rotation piece might literally be improving more than anyone else, but really, is that really calling the entire basketball world to attention to notice him? I don't think so.

This then makes me take issue with the idea that that the MIP should not be an All-Star. I'll consider non-All-Stars, but if I have two guys who started off on the same level, and then this season both improved but only one reached All-Star level, I'm going to put the All-Star ahead of the non-All-Star.

What I then tend to say is that I don't look at guys who were All-Stars (or All-NBA) in a previous season. If you were an All-Star before this year, MIP isn't really going to add to your stature this year. If you weren't an All-Star before, then the better you become this year, the stronger your MIP case and winning MIP along with other accolades just cements your bullet-like rise.

4b. Regarding 2nd & 3rd year players in the MIP:

There are a number of people who won't consider 2nd year players, and some of them are reluctant even for 3rd years, on the grounds that young players like that are merely "doing what they are supposed to", and for those doing that hear: That's just fine.

I've said in the past that I can go with the flow here - the critique makes some sense to me - but if others are considering Luka Doncic as a 2nd year, I'd feel silly refusing to consider him. So pragmatically, I don't eliminate these players from consideration. The only guys I eliminate for not enough experience are the rookies, because rookies get the ROY.

I will say though, I might still lean toward guys who have been around longer because when you get a guy who makes an unexpected leap later in his career, it's a hell of a thing. And I can't think of a better example than Lauri Markkanen this year.

I don't know if Markkanen will be my vote - if I end up seeing a more stark difference in, say, SGA Imma vote SGA - but his year certainly pops.

4c. Regarding the question of "Actually Improved or just Given Opportunity?":

It's a great question and I certainly respect those who emphasize the "Actually Improved" side of things, but I often find it hard to draw a clear line of distinction, and of course the same is true for the NBA's voters and casual fans. Hence, this isn't something I worry too much about. In either case, if the guy rose in stature this year due to on-court play, he's worthy in my book.

5a. Regarding 6MOY, first let me lay something out that actually is a rule here - we can talk about changing it, but its an award that really needs a rule.

The NBA's RS 6MOY is about coming off the bench more games than you start.

For ours, we add a clarification:

The NBA's RS 6MOY is about coming off the bench more games than you start either in the Regular Season or overall across RS & PS.

If you weren't eligible after the RS, but play enough games off the bench in the playoffs to sway the difference, you're eligible for our award.

If you were eligible after the RS, but start enough games in the playoffs to sway the difference, you're still eligible.

You cannot become eligible simply because you came off the bench in the playoffs though.

5b. One bit of advice I would give is that I think the 6MOY's purpose is to highlight guys who are starter-worthy and are coming off the bench as a sacrifice for the good of the team's fit. If you're really just not a Top 150 player in the league (5 starter x 30 teams), we do not need to give you an award imho.

So for me at least, it makes no sense at all to give the award to a guy who is on a legit bad team, even if he really is that good, because your franchise is clearly doing something very wrong - possibly tanking, but no matter what, this is not a franchise within the norms that 6MOY was built on.

Something else to consider is whether the guy is in his team's closing lineup. I'll consider guys who aren't, but being in the closing lineups screams "starter level player", which is what we're aiming for.

5c. One note of caution: I would urge people to take care not to give a guy 6MOY simply because of he played when he started. I'm not aware of any case that anything drastic here occurred, but to give a logical possibility:

For 42 games, a guy is discouraged when on the bench, doesn't fit with the guys he's with, and doesn't play well.
An injury to a teammate puts him into the starting lineup for the remaining 40 games where he fits like a glove, has a spring in his step, and he plays amazing.

Overall, he plays better than any other eligible 6th men, but when he actually played 6th man, he wasn't the best at it.

I give the example simply in the regular season because it could in theory happen there, but I actually think it's a more likely scenario when you add playoffs into the mix, and people can consider for themselves whether a year like Goran Dragic in '19-20 really was in the spirit of the award. (I personally think he does, but reasonable people could disagree.)

5d. Let me elaborate upon what happened with me and Gary Payton II in this award last year because it's not often I flip at the last minute like this.

I have misgiving putting a 7th man over a 6th man - meaning, putting a guy who played less minutes over a teammate who played more and is also eligible. In the case of Payton, that eligible 6th man was Otto Porter - who is quite clearly a starter level player and certainly worthy of the 6MOY.

Here's what I posted in my final vote:

Alright you bastards, you got me. I was not expecting to have Payton even on my ballot, but now with all said and done, after good arguments brought up on his behalf, I'm joining the bandwagon.

In the end, one of the objective things that sold me here are his WS/48 numbers, which led the NBA Champion Warriors in both the regular and post-season. Those numbers on their own would have made Payton a candidate here, but I can't deny that Payton popped on the screen for me like very few others and his presence in the NBA Finals felt like something more than just "a bench player". His year felt special - more special than the other guys mentioned - and I'll give it to him.


Let me be clear that I don't hold Win Shares as any kind of sacred thing, it was just an example, and what I was really looking for is anything objective where he stood out to go along with the salience of his presence that I too marveled at.

Incidentally, looking back, I'm kinda surprised I didn't at least give Porter a spot on my ballot because he feels to me right now that he deserved at least that much, but it makes me think that when I was swayed for Payton I effectively swapped on Warrior for another even though that's not any kind of rule ("only one player allowed per team") I'd want to stand behind.

6. On the "this season only" aspect of COY and especially EOY:

This is tough, and a good reason to consider making something like half-decade awards to better capture the longer-team value added.

But so long as we are doing COY & EOY, I think we need to try to use the year in question as the foundation of a candidate's candidacy. I say "try", because I think it's impossible not to let the previous years color your perception of this year in many cases. All I would say is that you shouldn't be explicitly listing off accomplishments from previous years while arguing for this season's award.

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2023 8:09 am
by The-Power
Some initial thoughts.

Offensive Player of the Year
– Jokic, pretty clearly. Not sure this needs any further elaboration. It's clearly one of the best – if not the best – offensive seasons in NBA history.

Defensive Player of the Year
– Interesting this year. My initial impulse is to say JJJr on a per-minute basis but there have been players who played considerably more and I'm not sure yet how to factor this in. The two Cleveland guys are a tough eval for me, not least because the team as a whole just defends well. Draymond Green still looks like a proper candidate based on on-court performance but if we credit him with the defensive identity of previous years it's hard to look past the fact that the Warriors as a whole never looked like a good defense for extended periods this year. Gobert is still someone to think about. The offense has been a struggle but he still anchors the defense. The two Bucks guys are always candidates and with Lopez at least being closer to Giannis compared to previous year (and he may very well have been better). Anthony Davis has had a good defensive year but not better than JJJr and they played about the same minutes total. And then there's Nic Claxton. Am I missing anyone?

Rookie of the Year
– First reaction is: Walker Kessler, followed by Jalen Williams. Then probably Keegan Murray. Tari Eason has also been good. Banchero has the raw numbers but I just don't think it's fully translating into impact yet and I value Rookies who contribute to winning on teams whose games matter. So I'll have to think about finding the right balance but for now I'd prefer to three (or at least two) candidates I mentioned.

Most Improved Player
– A bunch of good candidates, and it depends on what we value. Skill improvement? Jump in impact? Handling a larger role well? I think the two most obvious candidates are Haliburton and Markkanen who made the jump to become legitimate All-Stars, which is difficult to do. I'd also mention Shai here, and Nic Claxton. Josh Green, I think, could be a candidate for next year.

6th Man of the Year
– Not very convinced of the field this year. Should it just be Brogdon? I think that would be a sensible albeit oddly unsatisfactory choice.

Coach of the Year
– Mike Brown has to be the clear favorite. It's amazing what he has done with the Kings and unlike for some other cases, it's clear that he had a huge part in that considering the style of play they adopted and execute so well. Tom Thibodeau is probably next in line. Shout-out also to Will Hardy for how the Jazz performed until recently but now the wheels come off after the move and I just can't give it to a coach of a team end-of-season goal is to lose games. Also shout-out to Budenholzer for keeping the Bucks humming, steady as ever.

Executive of the Year
– Puh, once again it depends on what we value most. Turning a bad team into a good one? Turning a good one into a great one? Setting the franchise up for the best future? I'll have to consider both the criteria and then have closer look at all the moves that happened within the timeframe we are supposed to evaluate. I'm looking forward to it but I'll refrain from floating names just yet.

I'll have some more thoughts on the PoY ballot later on.

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2023 2:00 pm
by HeartBreakKid
Calling Canadian players "international" is so weird. Canadian players go through the same system as American players do. They play in school and then go to the NCAA before turning pro.

And from the NBA's perspective they are franchised in Canada and will likely have a second team. Can a Canadian player really call themselves foreign if they're playing for the Raptors? Doesn't make much sense to me.

I get it "non American" - but come on now. Steve Nash is about as exotic as apple pie.


Are Canadian players considered international in the NHL? I'd with them being the plurality it would be a no.

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2023 2:32 pm
by Colbinii
HeartBreakKid wrote:Calling Canadian players "international" is so weird. Canadian players go through the same system as American players do. They play in school and then go to the NCAA before turning pro.

And from the NBA's perspective they are franchised in Canada and will likely have a second team. Can a Canadian player really call themselves foreign if they're playing for the Raptors? Doesn't make much sense to me.

I get it "non American" - but come on now. Steve Nash is about as exotic as apple pie.


Are Canadian players considered international in the NHL? I'd with them being the plurality it would be a no.


SGA went to high school in Tennessee then attending college in Kentucky.

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2023 3:59 pm
by Texas Chuck
HeartBreakKid wrote:Calling Canadian players "international" is so weird. Canadian players go through the same system as American players do. They play in school and then go to the NCAA before turning pro.

And from the NBA's perspective they are franchised in Canada and will likely have a second team. Can a Canadian player really call themselves foreign if they're playing for the Raptors? Doesn't make much sense to me.

I get it "non American" - but come on now. Steve Nash is about as exotic as apple pie.


Are Canadian players considered international in the NHL? I'd with them being the plurality it would be a no.


I guess I don't see why it matters if someone labels them international or not. I get it though. For a really long time, the NBA was dominated almost exclusively by Americans. Thus it was noteworthy even when it was a Canadian who went to an American college.

I think we are to a point where its like the NHL and MLB, its just totally irrelevant. Players come from everywhere now. This isn't just an American game in the highest club league and its never going back to that.

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2023 8:33 pm
by Doctor MJ
HeartBreakKid wrote:Calling Canadian players "international" is so weird. Canadian players go through the same system as American players do. They play in school and then go to the NCAA before turning pro.

And from the NBA's perspective they are franchised in Canada and will likely have a second team. Can a Canadian player really call themselves foreign if they're playing for the Raptors? Doesn't make much sense to me.

I get it "non American" - but come on now. Steve Nash is about as exotic as apple pie.


Are Canadian players considered international in the NHL? I'd with them being the plurality it would be a no.


You've got a good point in general but in the case of Steve Nash, consider this:

1. Despite the fact that Nash dominated his high school region as thoroughly as you could want, the only reason why he got even a single offer for an American college was because he puts tons and tons of effort into putting together videos and sending them out to American college coaches everywhere at a time when that meant mailing physical copies.

Had Nash simply been an NBA MVP level talent - as he was - and not also been extremely intelligent, organized & mature, he almost certainly never gets to the NBA.

Had he instead developed the same way in an American region where he could showcase himself against other prospects who already had the attention and respect of scouts, he could have been just a jock and he'd have gotten plenty of attention from those scouts.

2. Keep in mind that Nash played the game differently than anyone else precisely because he grew up in a place where soccer & hockey reigned supreme. In other words, the reasons why Nash was a massive paradigm shifter - aka, exotic my my estimation - are basically the same reasons why Olajuwon was exotic in his on-court play despite the fact that he too went to an American college.

So, while a modern Canadian prospect like SGA may have no argument for being seen as a foreign player, I'd say that's because things have changed now in the time since the NBA discovered what Nash could do.

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2023 6:25 am
by HeartBreakKid
Doctor MJ wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:Calling Canadian players "international" is so weird. Canadian players go through the same system as American players do. They play in school and then go to the NCAA before turning pro.

And from the NBA's perspective they are franchised in Canada and will likely have a second team. Can a Canadian player really call themselves foreign if they're playing for the Raptors? Doesn't make much sense to me.

I get it "non American" - but come on now. Steve Nash is about as exotic as apple pie.


Are Canadian players considered international in the NHL? I'd with them being the plurality it would be a no.


You've got a good point in general but in the case of Steve Nash, consider this:

1. Despite the fact that Nash dominated his high school region as thoroughly as you could want, the only reason why he got even a single offer for an American college was because he puts tons and tons of effort into putting together videos and sending them out to American college coaches everywhere at a time when that meant mailing physical copies.

Had Nash simply been an NBA MVP level talent - as he was - and not also been extremely intelligent, organized & mature, he almost certainly never gets to the NBA.

Had he instead developed the same way in an American region where he could showcase himself against other prospects who already had the attention and respect of scouts, he could have been just a jock and he'd have gotten plenty of attention from those scouts.

2. Keep in mind that Nash played the game differently than anyone else precisely because he grew up in a place where soccer & hockey reigned supreme. In other words, the reasons why Nash was a massive paradigm shifter - aka, exotic my my estimation - are basically the same reasons why Olajuwon was exotic in his on-court play despite the fact that he too went to an American college.

So, while a modern Canadian prospect like SGA may have no argument for being seen as a foreign player, I'd say that's because things have changed now in the time since the NBA discovered what Nash could do.


Nash had to be more pro-active to get a scholarship but he was going to be a pro no matter what by 17 years old. He simply would have just joined an NCAA team as a walk on. Canadians do not exactly have a hard time getting into American colleges and Nash's family could afford it.

So yeah, I agree that he was easier to overlook because scouts have finite resources - but when people are saying "international" they basically mean guys who developed differently. Canadians do not develop differently from Americans in basketball.


As for the bold I don't think Nash plays that differently from other players. He is incredibly fundamentally sound but I think he is closer to a textbook point guard than an unorthodox one. Nash in Dallas is how many all-star American point guards played up until then.

Now in Phoenix I would agree, but Phoenix in general had a unique philosophy. D'Antoni thought about the game differently and that was because of his international experience (at least part of it). He is almost like the reverse of the Canadian example.

D'Antoni is an American who spent considerable time abroad absorbing styles from other regions, he is more of an "international" player than someone like SGA, Wiggins, Olynyk and Nash. D'Antoni thought about the game differently and it synergized well with what Nash does well. The citizenship thing is an arbitrary designation I find, maybe that is my primary point.

Is Nash more unique than or unorthodox than Magic Johnson. I don't think so personally, and Magic is just one example of many American players with unique attributes and outlook on basketball.

I don't think growing up playing soccer would make someone exotic. Why is Nash exotic but Tim Duncan is not? Tim Duncan is from a region where basketball wasn't popular, he grew up swimming and was also an all time great player. Just because he is a US citizen? That's what I mean at that point, it just feels arbitrary.

Tim Duncan grew up in a more isolated region than any Canadian player who has made the NBA and no one would consider Duncan a "international" player. It is simply because he opted to represent USA as he is a citizen. Duncan is not seen as a unique player in terms of his approach to the game, just one with incredible fundamentals. I think that is not that different from Nash.

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2023 8:05 am
by MyUniBroDavis
Jokic either has one of the best seasons ever or not top 2 no in between lol

It’ll be interesting to watch the games, the on-off ON DRFENSE won’t really be a good indicator this year since his backups are deandre and TB

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2023 3:08 pm
by Doctor MJ
HeartBreakKid wrote: Nash had to be more pro-active to get a scholarship but he was going to be a pro no matter what by 17 years old. He simply would have just joined an NCAA team as a walk on. Canadians do not exactly have a hard time getting into American colleges and Nash's family could afford it.


So first, a serious question that I've never thought to look up before: What NBA all-stars could be argued to have been walk-ons in college? Pippen & Rodman come to mind as guys who might qualify, but the explanation for both is the same: Massive growth spurts after high school. There are other guys who went the JC route because of non-basketball issues. Feel free to list other guys like that, but what if I say:

What NBA all-stars in relatively modern times a) were not recruited to college, b) didn't have a massive body change after high school, and c) didn't have some kind of non-basketball issue that kept them from getting noticed in high school?

Beyond all that though, to me you're thinking that so long as a guy is on a team and better than everyone else, he'll naturally bust out and get the notice he deserves. And I fundamentally disagree with this. I think we can start by recognizing that despite the fact that there's no reason to think of Nash as "raw" coming out of college, it took him more years in the NBA than college is long before anyone really tried to make him the focal point of the team's offense.

Basketball is not baseball. It's a true team games where there are more guys playing offense at a given time than balls, and so coaches have to decide on who to make the focal point. And sometimes this results in what we can clearly see in retrospect was a poor choice. So in general, I would firmly disagree with any notion that it is inevitable that people get the opportunity they deserve.

I'd also point out that Steve Nash was a 4 year college player who didn't take a massive leap forward as a senior. He didn't come out earlier because of the lack of enthusiasm on the part of NBA teams, and my understanding is that he could have easily gone undrafted if he had not impressed in a pre-draft tourney - which of course could have happened with an injury at the wrong time.

I doubt you think it's inevitable that an undrafted Nash would have emerged as an NBA all-star, but perhaps I'm wrong.

I'll also add that if he didn't get in with any American colleges, it's well within the realm of possibility that he'd have just gone into a different sport. The guys was a start at soccer, hockey, lacrosse & rugby, played in hockeyland, and had a father who was a soccer pro (and a younger brother would become one).

HeartBreakKid wrote:As for the bold I don't think Nash plays that differently from other players. He is incredibly fundamentally sound but I think he is closer to a textbook point guard than an unorthodox one. Nash in Dallas is how many all-star American point guards played up until then.


Couldn't disagree more. He was ultra-aggressive and there's now a term called "Nashing" based on his style of probing into the interior. This is why it's so frustrating to me when people think Nash played similarly to Stockton. Maybe Stockton could have played like Nash, but he really didn't.

HeartBreakKid wrote:
Is Nash more unique than or unorthodox than Magic Johnson. I don't think so personally, and Magic is just one example of many American players with unique attributes and outlook on basketball.


Oh Magic was certainly an exotic player. He had attributes that made him easier to notice as an outlier talent than Nash, but people certainly didn't know what to make him and things could have turned out differently if he hadn't been allowed to play his game the way he saw fit at higher levels.

HeartBreakKid wrote:I don't think growing up playing soccer would make someone exotic. Why is Nash exotic but Tim Duncan is not? Tim Duncan is from a region where basketball wasn't popular, he grew up swimming and was also an all time great player. Just because he is a US citizen? That's what I mean at that point, it just feels arbitrary.

Tim Duncan grew up in a more isolated region than any Canadian player who has made the NBA and no one would consider Duncan a "international" player. It is simply because he opted to represent USA as he is a citizen. Duncan is not seen as a unique player in terms of his approach to the game, just one with incredible fundamentals. I think that is not that different from Nash.


It's not the fact he played soccer, but how that affected his style of play. In a nutshell, Nash plays basketball like a soccer player.

Duncan looks like a traditional big, was trained to play like a traditional big, then played like a traditional big in an era where they still thought traditional bigs were the ultimate prospects, which led to him rapidly being recognized as a great basketball prospect.

Now, if you want to argue that there's specific signs that Duncan played basketball like a swimmer, please do so. If you can, maybe I'm wrong about him.

And yeah, like I said, Nash is not someone who plays "fundamentals". He's someone who regularly did stuff you don't want to teach kids to do because it will make them worse. Can you imagine telling another guard-sized player, "Okay, I want you to drive into the teeth of the defense, then jump in the air and count on being able to make the perfect pass somewhere on the court before you land?" Nash regularly did stuff that would get you benched if you weren't so damn effective.

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2023 6:57 pm
by eminence
Hornacek is the only other notable walk-on I can think of.

Actually, Drummond was a walk-on through some sort of technicallity.