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Peak D-Rob or current Joel Embiid, who is the better player?

Robinson seems to be a better defender and even more impressive on regular season peak offense though part of that is because SA had few other options during his pre-injury prime. The league was also friendlier to bigs dominating. With a big postseason, I could move to Embiid's corner though.

This probably is dependent on Embiids playoff run

they are pretty close offensively. robinson better at running the floor and the more athletic lob threat. jojo better at bully ball inside with his bigger body and i'd say embiid's midrange game is probably a bit better as well. hard to say for sure as a good chunk of robinsons prime we did not have possession data.

robinson however i feel is a tier above defensively. jojo is still a very good defender, but robinson is GOAT tier.

they are both pretty well rounded all around players. it's too bad we never saw peak robinson with another star running mate. duncan was somewhat duplicative for a post-injury robinson and while they combined to lead one of the best defensive teams of all time, they didn't have a lot of synergy offensively. embiid is looking so good this year with harden.

but still, i'd take robinson as long as I could pair him with a star wing.

Let's wait for the playoffs. As impressive as Embiid has been in recent years, Robinson is clearly more impactful in the RS. I won't even mention durability here, where Admiral dominated Joel.

70sFan wrote:Let's wait for the playoffs. As impressive as Embiid has been in recent years, Robinson is clearly more impactful in the RS. I won't even mention durability here, where Admiral dominated Joel.

Clearly more impactful might be a bit of a stretch considering that Embiid has MVP-level impact himself. But I agree that we should wait for the playoffs (and also that durability matters). I don't see a realistic scenario where I prefer Embiid over Robinson on an already strong team with a great perimeter creator. But this year's playoffs is where Embiid could separate himself from Robinson when it comes to being a superior lone star* – at least for a one-year peak (beyond that we'll have to wait and see how durable Embiid will be over the next couple years).

*Note that I'm not saying that he currently is a lone star (Harden is still awesome, and with a good playoff run would have had another superstar season) but that a dominant run from Embiid could make people more comfortable with the idea that you can build a contender around Embiid as the clear-cut best player and ‘lone star’.

Robinson

They're pretty similar on offense, maybe a slight edge for Embiid, but Admiral's a much more dominant presence defensively. It's the difference between being one of the best defensive centers in the league and being one of the best defenders of all-time. And Embiid's actually been worse in the playoffs than Robinson has. Until Embiid has a massive playoff run, he doesn't really have much of a case IMO.

I’m gonna go against the curve here and say Embiid better offensively and just the overall better player currently imo though prime David was a tank and the more consistent defender.

Always hard to compare with one guy still playing right enough.

The-Power wrote:

70sFan wrote:Let's wait for the playoffs. As impressive as Embiid has been in recent years, Robinson is clearly more impactful in the RS. I won't even mention durability here, where Admiral dominated Joel.

Clearly more impactful might be a bit of a stretch considering that Embiid has MVP-level impact himself. But I agree that we should wait for the playoffs (and also that durability matters). I don't see a realistic scenario where I prefer Embiid over Robinson on an already strong team with a great perimeter creator. But this year's playoffs is where Embiid could separate himself from Robinson when it comes to being a superior lone star* – at least for a one-year peak (beyond that we'll have to wait and see how durable Embiid will be over the next couple years).

*Note that I'm not saying that he currently is a lone star (Harden is still awesome, and with a good playoff run would have had another superstar season) but that a dominant run from Embiid could make people more comfortable with the idea that you can build a contender around Embiid as the clear-cut best player and ‘lone star’.

I don't think all MVP level players in various seasons have similar value. Robinson was absurdly impactful and from RS perspective, he'd have a solid case for top 10 peak ever conversations. Embiid isn't on that level.

As you said, it might be Embiid's year to prove me wrong. He has another high level creator next to him and it should give him more energy to focus on defense. I don't expect a ring from him, but long run with excellent level of play is my expectation to reach Robinson level. I know that Admiral has his share of struggles in the playoffs, but he never played with as gifted creator as Harden and his defense was still a factor.

This is more optimal to revisit in June / after 2023 P.O.Y. discourse in my opinion. A lot of my belief towards this is how not durable Embiid has been in a PS setting, which has led to a relatively elastic scoring track record.

That said, when healthy it looks like Embiid is peaking as a player and especially on the offensive end. He’s done a stellar job adding more play-finishing and somewhat better decision-making into his over Arsenal, along with the wing-like movement and frankly obscene scoring rates (best efficiency of his career too if I’m not mistaken).

Although he’s been a monster this season (and I think a strong MVP player on a /poss. basis since 2021 RS), Embiid’s lift isn’t *as* obscene as the box stats may signal through WOWY/on-off analysis in a vacuum.

On the other hand, I think Robinson comes out as a more valuable and effective regular season player when defense and scalability is factored in - though I like Embiid’s RS specific offense better at this point. Some of his impact (even if it’s overstated due to situation and his over-reliance, which played some part in hurting his PS translation) is quite astounding in years like 1994 through 1996 for example, and the Spurs tailed off decently in 1992 and vastly in 1997 - sans Robinson - from my recollection.

I’m still not as high on Robinson due to playoff track record, so I still am with my original premise to wait and see with Embiid.

Over the course of DRob's 3-year peak - 94-96, the Spurs had a 174-69 record (71.6% win rate) with him. This is with what I believe was with poor coaching and average supporting cast a best (and one not particularly well suited to DRob) - something that became a bigger issue in the playoffs.

Embiid has a 124-61 record over the last 3 years (67% win rate) - not much different from DRob's, but I believe he had the better supporting cast and coaching. Also, more importantly - DRob missed a total of 3 games, none in the playoffs. Embiid has missed 51 games. That makes a big difference to me when evaluating peaks. So for now, I would lean towards DRob unless Embiid ends up with an amazing (and fully healthy) playoff run.

Look at the bums peak D Rob played with compared to the stacked roster Joel has.

Offense is similar, durability is much higher, defense is much greater. D Rob easily.

Robinson, close but clear. Defensive edge I personally think is very very sizable. Even though Embiid is great, this version of him is not quite DPOY and DRob's impact on that end is well beyond normal DPOY level.

Embiid is clearly better offensively, not only because of raw stats in an era that is harder for centers but because he is a much better isolation scorer. Defensively, Robinson is better but part of it is era related. Embiid in the 90s would be a more impactful defender than now. Overall, i would prefer to have Embiid if i am trying to win a title, especially if he is to be the first option.

VDT wrote:Embiid is clearly better offensively, not only because of raw stats in an era that is harder for centers but because he is a much better isolation scorer. Defensively, Robinson is better but part of it is era related. Embiid in the 90s would be a more impactful defender than now. Overall, i would prefer to have Embiid if i am trying to win a title, especially if he is to be the first option.

I wonder how our impression of David Robinson would change if he played with an all-time level PG like James Harden distributing him the ball. Even before Harden, Embiid had Ben Simmons who was a great distributor (obviously not a great shot maker). Embiid's job is easier because he's not relying on Vinny Del Negro and Avery Johnson to get him the ball.

Robinson, don’t trust Embiids health or playoff performance.

colts18 wrote:

VDT wrote:Embiid is clearly better offensively, not only because of raw stats in an era that is harder for centers but because he is a much better isolation scorer. Defensively, Robinson is better but part of it is era related. Embiid in the 90s would be a more impactful defender than now. Overall, i would prefer to have Embiid if i am trying to win a title, especially if he is to be the first option.

I wonder how our impression of David Robinson would change if he played with an all-time level PG like James Harden distributing him the ball. Even before Harden, Embiid had Ben Simmons who was a great distributor (obviously not a great shot maker). Embiid's job is easier because he's not relying on Vinny Del Negro and Avery Johnson to get him the ball.

Simmons has been more of a hinderance with his non-shooting. Harden is of course a good play maker but i dont think this is much of a factor here. Embiid has always been great at creating his offense, even in this era that is considerably harder for a center to do so. Robinson was never the guy to get him the ball and let him go to work.

VDT wrote:Embiid is clearly better offensively, not only because of raw stats in an era that is harder for centers but because he is a much better isolation scorer.

I think this has been a common assumption (one that I have made as well), but is it really trued any more? Lets take a look at this year vs one of DRob's peak seasons in 95 based on per 100 stats (players scoring more than 25pts per 100):

2023
- Embiid - 47.6pts, 124ortg, 66%TS, 58% 2p%
- Jokic - 35.8pts, 136ortg, 71%TS, 68% 2p%
- Porzingis - 34.5pts, 121ortg, 62%TS, 56% 2p%
- Wood - 32.1pts, 116ortg, 62%TS, 60% 2p%
- Siakam - 32pts, 118ortg, 56%TS, 52% 2p%
- Jackson Jr. - 30.5pts, 118ortg, 61%TS, 59% 2p%
- Adebayo - 29.6pts, 115ortg, 59%TS, 55% 2p%
- Ayton - 29.4pts, 119ortg, 62%TS, 60% 2p%
- Reid - 29pts, 112ortg, 62%TS, 66% 2p%
- Turner - 29pts, 121ortg, 65%TS, 64% 2p%
- Valancuinas - 28pts, 117ortg, 62%TS, 59% 2p%
- Sabonis - 26.3pts, 132ortg, 67%TS, 64% 2p%
- Bryant - 25.6pts, 133ortg, 68%TS, 66% 2p%
- Vucevic - 25.3pts, 117ortg, 59%TS, 59% 2p%
- Sengun - 25pts, 119ortg, 60%, 58% 2p%

1995
- O'Neal - 40pts, 118ortg, 59%TS, 59% 2p%
- Robinson - 36.9pts, 120ortg, 60%TS, 53% 2p%
- Hakeem - 35.8pts, 110ortg, 56%TS, 52% 2p%
- Ewing - 34pts, 106ortg, 55%TS, 51% 2p%
- Smits - 31.3pts, 110ortg, 57%TS, 53% 2p%
- Mourning - 29.4pts, 110ortg, 59%TS, 53% 2p%

So based on a cursory analysis, it seems more centers today are scoring at a higher rate and doing it at much higher efficiency. Is it because these players are more skilled than the players on the 95 list or maybe it's not as hard for Cs that we think due to the more open spacing (that would benefit someone like DRob greatly)?

If we think a 3pt shot is required to be effective today, keep in mind that a lot of the players on the 2023 list did not shoot 3s at all early in their careers (some still don't) and have developed those shots during their NBA career. And most of the players in the 95 list shot just as well on long 2s as the 2023 players that developed a 3pt shot.

Obviously, Embiid is a big outlier here still (and I agree is much better offensively than DRob) - but I no longer believe it's harder for centers today than it was in DRobs era.

magicman1978 wrote:

VDT wrote:Embiid is clearly better offensively, not only because of raw stats in an era that is harder for centers but because he is a much better isolation scorer.

I think this has been a common assumption (one that I have made as well), but is it really trued any more? Lets take a look at this year vs one of DRob's peak seasons in 95 based on per 100 stats (players scoring more than 25pts per 100):

2023
- Embiid - 47.6pts, 124ortg, 66%TS, 58% 2p%
- Jokic - 35.8pts, 136ortg, 71%TS, 68% 2p%
- Porzingis - 34.5pts, 121ortg, 62%TS, 56% 2p%
- Wood - 32.1pts, 116ortg, 62%TS, 60% 2p%
- Siakam - 32pts, 118ortg, 56%TS, 52% 2p%
- Jackson Jr. - 30.5pts, 118ortg, 61%TS, 59% 2p%
- Adebayo - 29.6pts, 115ortg, 59%TS, 55% 2p%
- Ayton - 29.4pts, 119ortg, 62%TS, 60% 2p%
- Reid - 29pts, 112ortg, 62%TS, 66% 2p%
- Turner - 29pts, 121ortg, 65%TS, 64% 2p%
- Valancuinas - 28pts, 117ortg, 62%TS, 59% 2p%
- Sabonis - 26.3pts, 132ortg, 67%TS, 64% 2p%
- Bryant - 25.6pts, 133ortg, 68%TS, 66% 2p%
- Vucevic - 25.3pts, 117ortg, 59%TS, 59% 2p%
- Sengun - 25pts, 119ortg, 60%, 58% 2p%

1995
- O'Neal - 40pts, 118ortg, 59%TS, 59% 2p%
- Robinson - 36.9pts, 120ortg, 60%TS, 53% 2p%
- Hakeem - 35.8pts, 110ortg, 56%TS, 52% 2p%
- Ewing - 34pts, 106ortg, 55%TS, 51% 2p%
- Smits - 31.3pts, 110ortg, 57%TS, 53% 2p%
- Mourning - 29.4pts, 110ortg, 59%TS, 53% 2p%

So based on a cursory analysis, it seems more centers today are scoring at a higher rate and doing it at much higher efficiency. Is it because these players are more skilled than the players on the 95 list or maybe it's not as hard for Cs that we think due to the more open spacing (that would benefit someone like DRob greatly)?

If we think a 3pt shot is required to be effective today, keep in mind that a lot of the players on the 2023 list did not shoot 3s at all early in their careers (some still don't) and have developed those shots during their NBA career. And most of the players in the 95 list shot just as well on long 2s as the 2023 players that developed a 3pt shot.

Obviously, Embiid is a big outlier here still (and I agree is much better offensively than DRob) - but I no longer believe it's harder for centers today than it was in DRobs era.

There’s a difference between an off ball center or finisher like TB VS a primary on ball center like Jokic or Embiid.

In any case, TS% in 2020 is 58% vs 54% in the 1995, FWIW