1993Playoffs wrote:70sFan wrote:1993Playoffs wrote:
I know you weren’t referring to me, but I feel over the years we’ve overcorrected on Hakeem in my opinion. I don’t think much separates him vs Robinson.
Or we still underestime younger Hakeem seasons.
Do we? He was typically seen as a Barkley level player at the time. I think D-Rob clears that hurdle
Well, remember, "the time" was when people weren't giving bigs DPOY's. Rookie Hakeem immediately saw a bad team become good. Then in his second year he pulled off the biggest upset of the time period(dominating the lakers mid-dynasty) before playing the best maybe anyone has in a first-round exit.
Lots of criticism has been levied at Hakeem as a regular season performer, but those teams generally collapsed without him and the half-season absence of his "co-star" made basically no difference. The team that made the final for example, went 5-5 without and that was possibly the best team he'd have until 94/95.
Notably, when we go by winning as opposed to slashlines, Hakeem, despite a dramatically worse on and off-court situation, kept pace with Jordan/Magic over extended samples, and 92/88 sees a bigger drop off than we see form those two(i'm applying a filter of >10 games):
84-85, rookie hakeem sees a 29 win team become a 48 win team without notable cast change. 86, rockets are 5-5 without, and then are 51 with, and then skyrocket in the postseason notably beating the 61 win lakers in 5 with hakeem's ppg jumping off a cliff. In 87 sampson misses a bunch of games, and there's a coke crisis but the rockets are still able to win more games than a certain chicago guard. 88, rockets play like a 20 win team without and a 45 win team with, and then in 92 the rockets go 2-10 without and win 42 with him and then move to a 55 wins in 93 before b2b titles with 94 and 95.
Looking at longer stretches...
Hakeem is one of a handful of players(post-russell, we're talking Lebron, Kareem, Robinson) to post 25+-win lift multiple times. Worth noting that this is around where RAPM tends to distribute superstar impact to role players. His peak signals are arguably era-best.
Of course, a common knock on Hakeem is his consistency as an RS performer, but even over longer periods, he looks quite good. IIRC, if you use 10-year samples...
Hakeem takes 33-win teams to 48 wins
Jordan takes 38-win teams to 53.5 wins
Magic takes 44-win teams to 59 wins
Keeping in mind that it's harder to lift better teams, Hakeem comes marginally behind Jordan, and slightly more behind Magic, but he's right up there with both.
Ben has his own(presumably more sophisticated) approach which likes Hakeem even better; "Prime WOWY" ranks Olajuwon 10th. Magic and Jordan rank 12th and 20th, respectively. Keep in mind the samples here are much, much smaller, but at least there aren't extraneous distortions to worry about as we may with something like WOWYR
Now consider that Hakeem was probably the best playoff-riser of the 3, and I don't think "Barkley" is the right comparison.