TheGOATRises007 wrote:Doctor MJ wrote:Just looked it up, and currently I have it as 3.
'00-01
'08-09
'09-10
Not a fan of his defense in 05-06 I'm guessing?
That's a reasonable conclusion on your part, but honestly I don't really want to get into a knife fight with Kobe fans because of all the scars I already have.
Let me just say I have him on my ballot in that year and other years.
I think he was an incredible player.
This is just where he ended up for me.
Though as I think about, I will mention a particular thing about Kobe's performance trends that makes him tough to place:
In general he underperforms relative to superstar expectations in +/- stats, but to some degree that might be a reflection of something that could be seen as a flaw in +/- stats.
I like +/- stats because of the fact that they are directly tied to the scoreboard, which is the thing that's really real.
BUT
In the end, it doesn't matter how much you win by, it just matters that you outscore the other team by 1.
I think players tend to have their optimization of play degrade to some degree when it doesn't matter as much.
Some of this is active energy conservation, sometimes it's a form of demoralization, sometimes it's experimentation, and who knows what else.
But for whatever reason, Kobe seems likely to be a guy with more extreme such degradation in his game, and that can cause us analytically to underrate what he can do when he's got it all put together.
Now, I wouldn't go too far with this. Back in the day Kobe's supporters used to think he could swing any 5 point game to a win for the Lakers in the clutch, and when we got the data for that, nope, he really couldn't.
But his defense is a great thing to look at here.
His regular season +/- data really tells the story of a guy who on average was not a great defender...and yet he obviously had all the tools for great man defense, and we saw him successfully able to put them to use in a variety of critical situations.
So then, what do we use to judge his accomplishment for a given season? An aggregation of what he actually did? or, What he think he could do in a particular game when he's laser focused?
For me, as things currently stand, this is a place where you can see something that you might call "winning bias" in my rankings. When you go all the way, it's easier for me to dismiss the not-so-great times in the year as not really mattering all that much.
For others, they'll see it differently, and rank him differently as a result.