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Two clear tendency we can find in Curry's and Paul's Play-off careers. Usually stronger teams lead from start to finish. I looked into serries where teams lose the advantage they had or vice versa. So Curry teams took over 6 series and Paul teams lost the lead 8 time. Everbody knows how ended these PO series.

2015 GSW 1-2 MEM
2015 GSW 1-2 CLE
2016 GSW 1-3 OKC
2018 GSW 2-3 HOU
2022 GSW 1-2 BOS
2023 GSW 0-2 SAC

2008 NOH 2-0 SAN
2013 LAC 2-0 MEM
2015 LAC 3-1 HOU
2016 LAC 2-0 POR
2017 LAC 2-1 UTA
2018 HOU 3-2 GSW
2021 PHO 2-0 MIL
2022 PHO 2-0 DAL


Curry's team
Started 6W-14L
Finished 18W-1L

Paul's team
Started 18W-4L
Finished 3W-28L

Curry
started 20G .441/.356/.855 5.2r 5.0a 1.7s 0.3b 3.6t 25.2p -0.9
finished 19G .478/.434/.851 6.2r 6.5a 1.8s 0.4b 3.4t 31.2p +13.8

Paul
started 20G .503/.426/.871 5.0r 7.9a 1.8s 0.2b 1.9b 22.8pts +9.1
finished 27G .501/.344/.833 3.9r 8.0a 1.6s 0.0b 2.7b 20.4pts -8.0

Also Curry team lost control of the series just one time against Cavs and Paul took over the lead 2 times. Looking at the whole picture these two players moved in different directions. Curry's numbers are all up, Paul's - down. Paul had injuries, teammates had inkuries, but it doesn't explain this turn around from 18W-4L to 3W-28L.

This is pointless because you’re literally only looking at the series where it goes one way. Where’s Curry’s choke from 3-1 up in the NBA Finals where he had his worst game of the year in Game 7? Where’s the Clippers coming from 3-2 down against the Spurs with Chris Paul hitting a buzzer beater in Game 7. You’re basically just saying “well in the series Curry was clutch, he was a lot more clutch than Paul was in the series where he choked”. If you only look at one guy’s comebacks and only look at the other guys failures, it’s never going to be a fair comparison.

I think iggy's got a good point about the stats seeming to be imbalanced based looking for Curry successes and Paul's failures, and that's something that would be great to be remedied.

I'm not going to do the statistical analysis SpreeS did, but I will say that if we just look at

Come-from-behind (CFB) Series victories as defined by not being the first team to 2 or 3 wins and then winning
and
Fall-from-in-front (FFF) Series defeats as defined by being the first team to 2 or 3 wins and then losing,

The difference between the two is pretty stark.

Curry has 6 CFBs & 1 FFF
Paul has 2 CFBs & 8 FFFs.

A thorough analysis should do more than just tally these numbers up, but I do find myself wondering how other all-timers look through this lens and will probably look into that.

iggymcfrack wrote:This is pointless because you’re literally only looking at the series where it goes one way. Where’s Curry’s choke from 3-1 up in the NBA Finals where he had his worst game of the year in Game 7? Where’s the Clippers coming from 3-2 down against the Spurs with Chris Paul hitting a buzzer beater in Game 7. You’re basically just saying “well in the series Curry was clutch, he was a lot more clutch than Paul was in the series where he choked”. If you only look at one guy’s comebacks and only look at the other guys failures, it’s never going to be a fair comparison.

Coupled with his history of literally just talking about Curry in every thread you would think he'd try to make a thread where he wasn't shamelessly selective. Curry would have still came out looking better in the comparison but the guy just can't even be the least bit objective.

Anyway, Curry's team is usually seen as much better and many would argue that them falling behind in the first place to some opponents is already underachieving. It's not like they were "supposed" to go 1-2 against the Cavs. The Kings series just happened and I am pretty sure most people did not think the Warriors were supposed to be 0-2 against them, so why would the Warriors winning that series be a shocker to anyone?

Slightly alluded to above but ... I am right in thinking that a core assumption here is that it's worse to lose from ahead than just to lose more comprehensively (and better to come from behind than win more comprehensively)?

If so I'm inclined to disagree. I a player plays poorly leading to worse team chances that's bad, but I don't think when in the series matters (at the margin if it's other than luck, and I could control it, I'd prefer stronger early because those games happen every series and you get a chance to close it out [or get near doing so] before a stronger late-series-game player has a chance to influence a series). Then too, we seem to be evaluating players off raw team level data ... I don't know, maybe there's some value to be had here but at first glance it isn't obvious to me.

SpreeS wrote:Two clear tendency we can find in Curry's and Paul's Play-off careers. Usually stronger teams lead from start to finish. I looked into serries where teams lose the advantage they had or vice versa. So Curry teams took over 6 series and Paul teams lost the lead 8 time. Everbody knows how ended these PO series.

2015 GSW 1-2 MEM
2015 GSW 1-2 CLE
2016 GSW 1-3 OKC
2018 GSW 2-3 HOU
2022 GSW 1-2 BOS
2023 GSW 0-2 SAC

2008 NOH 2-0 SAN
2013 LAC 2-0 MEM
2015 LAC 3-1 HOU
2016 LAC 2-0 POR
2017 LAC 2-1 UTA
2018 HOU 3-2 GSW
2021 PHO 2-0 MIL
2022 PHO 2-0 DAL


Curry's team
Started 6W-14L
Finished 18W-1L

Paul's team
Started 18W-4L
Finished 3W-28L

Curry
started 20G .441/.356/.855 5.2r 5.0a 1.7s 0.3b 3.6t 25.2p -0.9
finished 19G .478/.434/.851 6.2r 6.5a 1.8s 0.4b 3.4t 31.2p +13.8

Paul
started 20G .503/.426/.871 5.0r 7.9a 1.8s 0.2b 1.9b 22.8pts +9.1
finished 27G .501/.344/.833 3.9r 8.0a 1.6s 0.0b 2.7b 20.4pts -8.0

Also Curry team lost control of the series just one time against Cavs and Paul took over the lead 2 times. Looking at the whole picture these two players moved in different directions. Curry's numbers are all up, Paul's - down. Paul had injuries, teammates had inkuries, but it doesn't explain this turn around from 18W-4L to 3W-28L.

I’m somewhat confused at how this was done, but 3-28 is a hilarious record lol

Owly wrote:Slightly alluded to above but ... I am right in thinking that a core assumption here is that it's worse to lose from ahead than just to lose more comprehensively (and better to come from behind than win more comprehensively)?

If so I'm inclined to disagree. I a player plays poorly leading to worse team chances that's bad, but I don't think when in the series matters (at the margin if it's other than luck, and I could control it, I'd prefer stronger early because those games happen every series and you get a chance to close it out [or get near doing so] before a stronger late-series-game player has a chance to influence a series). Then too, we seem to be evaluating players off raw team level data ... I don't know, maybe there's some value to be had here but at first glance it isn't obvious to me.

Well I won't speak for the OP, but to me the big thing here is just recognizing a real trend that people on the whole don't seem to recognize. If you can recognize it without finding a way to assume that it's noise, then you can decide for yourself what it means.

Of course, if folks want to argue it's noise, that's their right...but this was something I was pointing at a year ago before the Mavs came back on the Suns.

Incidentally folks, if there any suggestions for who else should be analyzed in this CFB/FFF way - particularly those you think might be extreme, please call them out.

Who do we think has the most come from behind series wins?
Who do we think has the most fall from in front series losses?
etc

Doctor MJ wrote:Incidentally folks, if there any suggestions for who else should be analyzed in this CFB/FFF way - particularly those you think might be extreme, please call them out.

Who do we think has the most come from behind series wins?
Who do we think has the most fall from in front series losses?
etc

Lebron and Hakeem for CFB(also happen to be no.1 and no.2 respectively for underdog series wins)

CP3 has a healthy lead for FFF. Thought bird might be high there too but he's more of a home loser than a "with a lead" loser

Lebron

8 CFB
4 FFF

Kobe

3 CFB
1 FFF

Durant

5 CFB
2 FFF

Hilarious that this curry and Paul is a discussion on this forum. One teams forces them to beat them the other teams force the others to beat them. You can point to any statistics that you want but you have to realize teams would welcome cp3 scoring and force him to beat you and shut down the others. While opponents of curry would force anyone but him. That’s why anyone trying to make statistics the sole objective of the game won’t understand what the other team is conceding and why one continues to win while the other continues to come up short.

Stats are not created equally.

Onus wrote:Hilarious that this curry and Paul is a discussion on this forum. One teams forces them to beat them the other teams force the others to beat them. You can point to any statistics that you want but you have to realize teams would welcome cp3 scoring and force him to beat you and shut down the others. While opponents of curry would force anyone but him. That’s why anyone trying to make statistics the sole objective of the game won’t understand what the other team is conceding and why one continues to win while the other continues to come up short.

Stats are not created equally.

Okay, that's nice but that isn't true. You're basically just saying people don't guard CP3 which is pretty ridiculous. FreeDawkins has videos of every players field goals and Chris Paul on average takes the toughest shots out of any MVP caliber player. What players live on mid range jumpers especially if they are unguarded? Can you rationalize that?

If anything people are more afraid of Curry's teammates on average as his teammates are better. It's weird how people on here talk like Curry getting double teamed at half court is unique to him - I've seen many players including CP3 get hard doubled at half court and it's because they do not care about whether Matt Barnes is going to take a corner 3 or not. Thinking that 3 point range is the only factor on why players get doubled beyond the arc is naive (not saying you said this, but it's a common thing I've seen said on this board forever).

Sorry bud, if you're a superstar teams will attempt to shut you down. That isn't exclusive to Curry, that isn't even uncommon that is the norm. Tough pill to swallow but Curry isn't unique in those regards and teams actually do on occasions succeed in slowing him down. He is not unstoppable.

Not sure how anyone can watch basketball and not see that defenses are collapsing on Chris Paul as he gets closer to the paint which for him is nearly ever possession. Chris Pauls' PPG is not high because he likes to pass and he does that very well, if teams just let him score then his PPG would be higher, logically. Why would he average the same exact number of points if teams are not defending him?

Youre saying stats are not created equally but you're likely not even bothering trying to contextualize that pass first players have different standards for what are good stats. You likely just think Chris Paul doesn't have high PPG so he's not that good which is ironic to the stats are not equal statement.

SpreeS wrote:Lebron

8 CFB
4 FFF

Kobe

3 CFB
1 FFF

Durant

5 CFB
2 FFF

Hmm, either we're doing this a bit differently, or I've probably miscounted.

To be clear, I'm not giving a team CFB/FFF credit simply based losing/winning the first game. Maybe I should, but the numbers below are based the 2 game threshold (presuming I've made no mistakes).

Bill Russell: CFB 7, FFF 0
Steph Curry: CFB 6, FFF 1
LeBron James: CFB 6, FFF 4
Kevin Durant: CFB 4, FFF 2
Hakeem Olajuwon: CFB 3, FFF 0
Wilt Chamberlain: CFB 3, FFF 2
Steve Nash: CFB 2, FFF 0
Chris Paul: CFB 2, FFF 8
Michael Jordan: CFB 1, FFF 1

Doctor MJ wrote:

SpreeS wrote:Lebron

8 CFB
4 FFF

Kobe

3 CFB
1 FFF

Durant

5 CFB
2 FFF

Hmm, either we're doing this a bit differently, or I've probably miscounted.

To be clear, I'm not giving a team CFB/FFF credit simply based losing/winning the first game. Maybe I should, but the numbers below are based the 2 game threshold (presuming I've made no mistakes).

Bill Russell: CFB 7, FFF 0
Steph Curry: CFB 6, FFF 1
LeBron James: CFB 6, FFF 4
Kevin Durant: CFB 4, FFF 2
Hakeem Olajuwon: CFB 3, FFF 0
Wilt Chamberlain: CFB 3, FFF 2
Steve Nash: CFB 2, FFF 0
Chris Paul: CFB 2, FFF 8
Michael Jordan: CFB 1, FFF 1

Paul's numbers are inexplicably bad regarding the 'FFF'

Guessing he gets injured for at least half of those though.

Doctor MJ wrote:

SpreeS wrote:Lebron

8 CFB
4 FFF

Kobe

3 CFB
1 FFF

Durant

5 CFB
2 FFF

Hmm, either we're doing this a bit differently, or I've probably miscounted.

To be clear, I'm not giving a team CFB/FFF credit simply based losing/winning the first game. Maybe I should, but the numbers below are based the 2 game threshold (presuming I've made no mistakes).

Bill Russell: CFB 7, FFF 0
Steph Curry: CFB 6, FFF 1
LeBron James: CFB 6, FFF 4
Kevin Durant: CFB 4, FFF 2
Hakeem Olajuwon: CFB 3, FFF 0
Wilt Chamberlain: CFB 3, FFF 2
Steve Nash: CFB 2, FFF 0
Chris Paul: CFB 2, FFF 8
Michael Jordan: CFB 1, FFF 1

I am counting series (7 games) only with results

2-0
2-1
3-1
3-2

Series (5 games)

2-0
2-1

Lebron

2007 CLE 0-2 DET
2012 MIA 1-2 IND
2012 MIA 2-3 BOS
2013 MIA 1-2 or 2-3 SAN
2015 CLE 1-2 CHI
2016 CLE 1-3 GSW
2018 CLE 1-2 IND
2018 CLE 0-2 or 2-3 BOS

Bird CFB 3, FFF 3
K.Malone CFB 3, FFF 5
Magic CFB 2, FFF 1

TheGOATRises007 wrote:

Doctor MJ wrote:

SpreeS wrote:Lebron

8 CFB
4 FFF

Kobe

3 CFB
1 FFF

Durant

5 CFB
2 FFF

Hmm, either we're doing this a bit differently, or I've probably miscounted.

To be clear, I'm not giving a team CFB/FFF credit simply based losing/winning the first game. Maybe I should, but the numbers below are based the 2 game threshold (presuming I've made no mistakes).

Bill Russell: CFB 7, FFF 0
Steph Curry: CFB 6, FFF 1
LeBron James: CFB 6, FFF 4
Kevin Durant: CFB 4, FFF 2
Hakeem Olajuwon: CFB 3, FFF 0
Wilt Chamberlain: CFB 3, FFF 2
Steve Nash: CFB 2, FFF 0
Chris Paul: CFB 2, FFF 8
Michael Jordan: CFB 1, FFF 1

Paul's numbers are inexplicably bad regarding the 'FFF'

Guessing he gets injured for at least half of those though.

Plus there were at least a couple series where Blake got injured too.

HeartBreakKid wrote:

Onus wrote:Hilarious that this curry and Paul is a discussion on this forum. One teams forces them to beat them the other teams force the others to beat them. You can point to any statistics that you want but you have to realize teams would welcome cp3 scoring and force him to beat you and shut down the others. While opponents of curry would force anyone but him. That’s why anyone trying to make statistics the sole objective of the game won’t understand what the other team is conceding and why one continues to win while the other continues to come up short.

Stats are not created equally.

Okay, that's nice but that isn't true. You're basically just saying people don't guard CP3 which is pretty ridiculous. FreeDawkins has videos of every players field goals and Chris Paul on average takes the toughest shots out of any MVP caliber player. What players live on mid range jumpers especially if they are unguarded? Can you rationalize that?

If anything people are more afraid of Curry's teammates on average as his teammates are better. It's weird how people on here talk like Curry getting double teamed at half court is unique to him - I've seen many players including CP3 get hard doubled at half court and it's because they do not care about whether Matt Barnes is going to take a corner 3 or not. Thinking that 3 point range is the only factor on why players get doubled beyond the arc is naive (not saying you said this, but it's a common thing I've seen said on this board forever).

Sorry bud, if you're a superstar teams will attempt to shut you down. That isn't exclusive to Curry, that isn't even uncommon that is the norm. Tough pill to swallow but Curry isn't unique in those regards and teams actually do on occasions succeed in slowing him down. He is not unstoppable.

Not sure how anyone can watch basketball and not see that defenses are collapsing on Chris Paul as he gets closer to the paint which for him is nearly ever possession. Chris Pauls' PPG is not high because he likes to pass and he does that very well, if teams just let him score then his PPG would be higher, logically. Why would he average the same exact number of points if teams are not defending him?

Youre saying stats are not created equally but you're likely not even bothering trying to contextualize that pass first players have different standards for what are good stats. You likely just think Chris Paul doesn't have high PPG so he's not that good which is ironic to the stats are not equal statement.

I didn’t say cp3 was unguarded. I’m saying cp3 works off of pick and roll. Instead of helping off of the others and allowing them to get open shots they put a bigger defender on cp3 have that defender fight over the screen and live with what ever cp3 does from there. Obviously cp3 is good so his offensive numbers go up since that’s what the defense is giving him. You compare that to curry whom the defense puts 2 on him forcing the ball out of his hands, leaving draymond a 4 on 3 and giving him the ability to attack that advantage and doesn’t give Steph any type of statistic. So yes one team is forcing cp3 to get statistics while another team is forcing Steph to get no statistic. That’s the context where these statistics are coming from.

Teams live with cp3 scoring because hey if a 6’ guard wants to shoot midrange jumpers over a 6’8” forward contesting that’s fine. It’s proven that’s not going to beat you. Teams won’t live with Steph shooting 3s off of screens because it’s proven he’s going to beat you. So they sell out and allow his super team to attack 4 on 3.

And yes Steph is unique in how frequently teams do double him at half court. Sure maybe cp gets hot and the throw a double at him to break up his rhythm and make him pass a few possessions in a game. They do that to Steph the whole game which is the difference. No team will survive playing a drop all series long.

TheGOATRises007 wrote:

Doctor MJ wrote:

SpreeS wrote:Lebron

8 CFB
4 FFF

Kobe

3 CFB
1 FFF

Durant

5 CFB
2 FFF

Hmm, either we're doing this a bit differently, or I've probably miscounted.

To be clear, I'm not giving a team CFB/FFF credit simply based losing/winning the first game. Maybe I should, but the numbers below are based the 2 game threshold (presuming I've made no mistakes).

Bill Russell: CFB 7, FFF 0
Steph Curry: CFB 6, FFF 1
LeBron James: CFB 6, FFF 4
Kevin Durant: CFB 4, FFF 2
Hakeem Olajuwon: CFB 3, FFF 0
Wilt Chamberlain: CFB 3, FFF 2
Steve Nash: CFB 2, FFF 0
Chris Paul: CFB 2, FFF 8
Michael Jordan: CFB 1, FFF 1

Paul's numbers are inexplicably bad regarding the 'FFF'

Guessing he gets injured for at least half of those though.

Well what I’d say is that there’s a built in explanation:

In series, teams adjust. Both the coaching strategy and the player comfort. If your group is the one that adjusts better, you’re the figure-outers. The other group would be the figured-out.

It’s possible that Paul’s situation can be chalked up to the unique bad luck of him and his teammates tending to get injured mid-way through playoff series.

But if this isn’t the answer, then I’d argue the question isn’t whether Paul’s team is the one who gets figured-out, but how specifically this is occurring.

Perhaps there’s an answer that doesn’t say anything specifically bad about Paul, but something is occurring.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Doctor MJ wrote:

TheGOATRises007 wrote:

Doctor MJ wrote:
Hmm, either we're doing this a bit differently, or I've probably miscounted.

To be clear, I'm not giving a team CFB/FFF credit simply based losing/winning the first game. Maybe I should, but the numbers below are based the 2 game threshold (presuming I've made no mistakes).

Bill Russell: CFB 7, FFF 0
Steph Curry: CFB 6, FFF 1
LeBron James: CFB 6, FFF 4
Kevin Durant: CFB 4, FFF 2
Hakeem Olajuwon: CFB 3, FFF 0
Wilt Chamberlain: CFB 3, FFF 2
Steve Nash: CFB 2, FFF 0
Chris Paul: CFB 2, FFF 8
Michael Jordan: CFB 1, FFF 1

Paul's numbers are inexplicably bad regarding the 'FFF'

Guessing he gets injured for at least half of those though.

Well what I’d say is that there’s a built in explanation:

In series, teams adjust. Both the coaching strategy and the player comfort. If your group is the one that adjusts better, you’re the figure-outers. The other group would be the figured-out.

It’s possible that Paul’s situation can be chalked up to the unique bad luck of him and his teammates tending to get injured mid-way through playoff series.

But if this isn’t the answer, then I’d argue the question isn’t whether Paul’s team is the one who gets figured-out, but how specifically this is occurring.

Perhaps there’s an answer that doesn’t say anything specifically bad about Paul, but something is occurring.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Aside from the specifics and speaking to the concept ...
I disagree with this as the "built in" framing. Maybe the leading team is worse but figures out their opponents weaknesses from the start whilst the opposing team takes time to even things out strategically and win on talent (which I would not consider being "figured out". Just as one example. I don't immediately see why one should be more likely than the other.