RealGM

There are several players in the league currently who typically make a major leap in their ability in the playoffs compared to the regular season.

Two players that came to mind are Jimmy Butler and Jamal Murray. Maybe this year's Harden as well, although he's not too stable.

What other examples are there? Try to point out the Top 3 or Top 5 in making the biggest leap in playoff performance.

Jalen Brunson has had a great postseason run. 27/5/6 on 57%TS. This, against the 1st and 9th rated RS defenses (Miami’s probably closer to a top 5 defensive team when healthy/right). Second straight great postseason for him, where his production increases.

Nikola Jokic has been an ATG playoff performer basically he’s whole career. Scoring is way up.

Booker is having an ATG PS run.

The danger is even if you think playoff "leaps" are "real" (i.e. more than variance from a small sample), at least in some instances ... there will be some cases where the small(er) sample means it will later seem to transpire to have been noise.

Hollinger, in one of his books, had Bibby as a playoff rise and part of that might have been flaws in Game Score and part of it being playoff minutes distribution versus career minutes distribution ... but 02-04 PER and BPM are up (in raw terms before accounting for higher competition, and higher standard of average player) then I think drops (again in raw terms) - I think - every year after (that his team makes the playoffs).

And -again, assuming it is real - one can even have played long enough to establish what will seem to be a real trend at their careers end and reverse it whether by fixing some flaw or the small samples meaning more luck (or change in competition or it is luck and regression to the mean). So assuming it is real, you can't necessarily rely on it in a given year. An inverted case of this - a career faller - would be Robert Parish. But after a rough 80s (especially 81-86) his stats trend up vesrus the RS from 90-95 (no 94 included: Boston missed playoffs).

Given the size (and context specific nature etc) of the samples, then, even if one were to retrospectively conclude someone was a "leaper" it's hard to know whether they are or they are lucky at the time.

Anthony Edwards.

Luka Doncic

Scoring in the RS: Inflation Adjusted 29.9 pts per 75 on rTS% of 1.6%, ScoreVal-0.6

Scoring in the PS: Inflation Adjusted 33.5 pts per 75 on a rTS% of about 3%, ScoreVal-1.2


PlayVal is an estimate of playmaking value.

RS PlayVal-1.6

PS PlayVal-2.1



From 20-22 his RS vs PS splits

RS Backpicks BPM--3.9

PS Backpicks BPM-7.1 (+4.2 improvement)


RS AuPM/G-2.0

PS AuPM/G-3.3 (+1.3 improvement)


RS BPM-7.8

PS BPM-9.7 (+1.9 Improvement)


34.4 MPG in the RS and 37.4 MPG in the PS. His impact goes up on a per-possessions basis, while, playing more MPG.

BTW, Anthony Davis absolutely also belongs in the conversation in this season at least

Owly wrote:The danger is even if you think playoff "leaps" are "real" (i.e. more than variance from a small sample), at least in some instances ... there will be some cases where the small(er) sample means it will later seem to transpire to have been noise.

Hollinger, in one of his books, had Bibby as a playoff rise and part of that might have been flaws in Game Score and part of it being playoff minutes distribution versus career minutes distribution ... but 02-04 PER and BPM are up (in raw terms before accounting for higher competition, and higher standard of average player) then I think drops (again in raw terms) - I think - every year after (that his team makes the playoffs).

And -again, assuming it is real - one can even have played long enough to establish what will seem to be a real trend at their careers end and reverse it whether by fixing some flaw or the small samples meaning more luck (or change in competition or it is luck and regression to the mean). So assuming it is real, you can't necessarily rely on it in a given year. An inverted case of this - a career faller - would be Robert Parish. But after a rough 80s (especially 81-86) his stats trend up vesrus the RS from 90-95 (no 94 included: Boston missed playoffs).

Given the size (and context specific nature etc) of the samples, then, even if one were to retrospectively conclude someone was a "leaper" it's hard to know whether they are or they are lucky at the time.

Great post, as per your usual, Sir.

Question: How many games/MP constitutes a statistically significant sample size in the playoffs?