Can Evan Mobley become the next great big?

[TheLand13]

Yeah I know... the Cleveland fan simping over Mobley. Who would have thunk it? But quite frankly, I've been wanting to discuss this for a while, and while a lot of people have already given their own thoughts on the matter, I thought I'd give a full breakdown of at least the critical aspects of his game and go from there. If you don't feel like reading all of this, just go to the bolded part where I ask the question. But please, do be willing to at least give the thread a chance and hear me out.

And if the LeBron thread I made a while back is any indication... yes, this is going to be a really long post. Sorry in advance.

Now don't worry, this isn't about to be me saying he's the next Tim Duncan or anything of the sort. Can he? I mean... sure, but that's not a hill I'm ready to die on and hopefully that's not the case for other Cleveland fans. But on the other hand... when looking at what he is as of now, he's already gotten further along than I was originally expecting. And I think it's pretty unreasonable based on what we've seen so far to claim he's not capable of being that guy.

What is Evan Mobley right now? Well he's obviously not on the level of a Tim Duncan, let alone a... I don't know, Rasheed Wallace? Is that fair? He's got some areas that he is just incredibly talented in but others that he obviously needs a lot of work on. But let's look at where he's at so far in his career and go from there.

In Mobley's second season in the NBA, he managed to stay relatively healthy for the most part and avoid any major injuries, only missing three games for the entire season, one of which he was being rested for. That is really great stuff, and I hope that can continue to be the case in the long run. For his season second, his per game averages came out as such:

16.2 PPG on 55% shooting from the field, 21% from three and 67% from FT, 9 RPG, 2.8 APG, and 1.5 BPG. This is all while averaging 34 MPG.

On the surface, these stats aren't exactly eye popping. But when applied with some context, they give me reasons to be very excited... but also very concerned.

16.2 PPG isn't setting the world on fire. But it did show us a few things. First, Evan Mobley moved up a spot on the roster as the option on offense, becoming number 3 for this team. I know that's weird to say considering how that was the same case last season, but with the arrival of Donovan Mitchell, who had himself arguably his best season yet, I was expecting Mobley to stay at around the same or even decrease in the scoring department while becoming the fourth option (so I guess he actually just stayed at the same spot...? I don't know, technicalities are weird). So I was pleasantly surprised when that ended up not being the case. He didn't just increase his scoring average, he did so while also increasing his shooting percentages (well, not from three but we'll let that pass for now). His rebounding improved as well and I feel like his confidence as a player increased too... until the playoffs happened but more on that later. We already know what area of the game Mobley is known for the most, but it's important to understand the potential that Mobley has in the area he arguably needs work on the most. I think these increased averages showcase what Evan Mobley can really become if his game continues to develop at the rate it is developing. It's tough to ask for someone to make legitimate improvements to their game when you get a superstar player like Mitchell to come to the team, take over the scoring for large portions and change the teams overall schemes. But in this aspect, Mobley absolutely succeeded in at least demonstrating improvement in the scoring department. And he can become a truly dangerous player if this trend continues on a yearly basis when you consider how young he is.

But there's another aspect to this that I have not seen mentioned yet and that's very odd to me. If you happen to pop over to the trade section of this forum, you probably have noticed that there are some threads suggesting that Jarrett Allen be traded. The main argument for this is that in order for Cleveland to truly unlock its potential and advance to the next stage, they need to get rid of Allen and shift Mobley over to center so that way Cleveland can improve its spacing. But here's the thing... at least for this season, Evan Mobley showed that it wasn't a big enough issue to affect his scoring. Despite the fact that they didn't really improve on the spacing department (at least as far as the starting lineup is concerned), Mobley still was able to improve his scoring and find other ways to contribute offensively. It begs the question as to what Mobley would be doing right now if the following conditions applied:

1. If it really was just Mobley playing at center and they had a floor spreader at the four spot.
2. If Donovan Mitchell wasn't on the team and Mobley was the second option on offense.

Well, we don't really know about the first part, but we have data that does give us an idea of how he'd do without Mitchell.

In 13 games played without Donovan Mitchell this season, Evan Mobley's numbers increased to 18 PPG, 9.2 RPG, and 2.5 APG. Granted, his percentages do dip ever so slightly, but it's a showcase of what Evan Mobley can be for you as your second option on offense... in just his second season. 18 PPG is nothing to scoff at. Kevin Garnett is another individual people are predicting Mobley will be a similar player to (although hopefully he'll garner more success in the winning department), and he didn't average 18 PPG until his third season the league. Granted, I know not what his status was as a player at that point (like whether or not he was the number one option or not), but it's worth mentioning as, at least right now anyways, Evan Mobley isn't the number one option. Now I know the game is different now, the pace is faster and scoring is more advanced (and it's harder to play defense), but I'm not going to worry too much about that considering how the Cavaliers play the slowest pace in the NBA.

So what do we know about Mobley's offensive game based on this data so far? He is at the very least already showing he can be a very capable scorer in the league. Him averaging 20 PPG one day is not by any means out of the question, and I don't think it would be crazy to predict that he ends up averaging that sooner rather than later, assuming Garland takes a back seat to him and allows him to become the second option on offense (whether or not that's the right move to make is another story entirely).

But what I really want to focus on for a moment is how he is generating these points.

Here's a popular take that's also been making its way through the GB, especially after Mobley's poor playoff showing: He can't generate his own offense and relies almost entirely on his guards to score. And that's just a bunch of crap. I don't know why this continues to be a thing after what he's been able to show us this season, but if there's one thing that I can't stand, it's people who base a players entire career worth of play off of a five game sample size. It just makes no sense to me.

I would get individual videos showcasing what Mobley does offensively. But instead, I want to just get the highlights from some of his best scoring outings this season. I know highlights are selective, but the point here is to demonstrate what Mobley CAN do and DOES do pretty much on a regular basis.

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=HouseofHighlights

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=ZHHighlights

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=ZHHighlights

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=ZHHighlights

If you don't understand what exactly you're supposed to be looking for, let's compare these for a moment to a game from someone Evan Mobley (for some odd reason) frequently gets compared to, Rudy Gobert.

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=Cookies%26Kareem

Look at this video after you are finished watching at least two of the four I posted above. One of the reasons people like to compare the two is because Evan does get a lot of his points off of assisted baskets, lobs and dunks, but I think this argument more than demonstrates the following: people don't actually watch either person play and/or don't understand the sport in general. Whether or not that is the case is up to you to decide.

To someone who isn't actually paying attention, it can definitely look like they're both generating their offense in similar fashion. But in reality, Gobert is relying heavily on just hovering around the paint for 95% of the offensive possessions and isn't really involved all that much in the actual plays being run itself. He just roams near the rim and waits for an opportunity to be set up for him. Even on situations where Mobley is getting lobs, dunks and assisted baskets, notice how he's getting these opportunities in the first place. He's reading the defenses and finding cracks to attack when given the opportunity, he's setting himself up for his own offense a lot and is even helping as an extra playmaker at times. There's a huge difference between just passing out to an open player like Gobert does at times to what Mobley does, which is actively read the defenses and find teammates for scoring opportunities or just helping set something up. That alone is a massive difference.

And the thing is, I haven't even talked about the fact that this isn't even all Mobley does. Unlike Gobert, he actually does have go to moves on offense and as you see numerous times throughout these videos, he is not only capable of creating his own offense, but he can straight up be a problem to guard. Brook Lopez was first team all defense this season and a DPOY finalist, but in the first video I post, we see Mobley dominate him over and over again, attacking him without hesitation and hitting him with effortless tear drops despite Lopez being all over him. When has Gobert EVER demonstrated this kind of offensive potency? While Evan Mobley does not have a consistent jumper, there is the potential for one to develop. We do see him hit one every so often, and there were numerous times throughout the season where Bickerstaff encouraged him to attempt more of those. I've stated in the past that Mobley should work on developing a consistent three point shot, but quite frankly, a consistent mid range jumper is more than suitable as well to take his offensive game to the next level. And if I were to bet on it, I would say he's definitely on track to develop one at the very LEAST if his talent is any indication.

Mobley's offensive game needs work. It is by no means polished and it does have some glaring holes. These holes were exploited to great effect by the Knicks on the playoffs and as a result, he just missed out on averaging double digit points. But with him only being 21 years of age, these current holes do not concern me in the slightest. If these same problems are still persisting however three years later, well... that's a different story.

But it's time for us to discuss the part you probably thought I'd already be on by now... the defense.

Safe to say, I was not expecting Mobley to be this far along defensively, especially after how he struggled at maintaining defensive consistency after being moved to center last season due to Allen's injury. He not only was able to maintain that level whenever he played center, he took it to another level. There were multiple games where he took over down the stretch with just his defense alone, taking command of the paint and directing his team on where to go to keep the team from gaining any advantage. His defense this season was incredible, and the step he took at this end was unexpected for me considering how good he already was in his rookie season. I had no doubt he would improve, but I didn't think he would improve THIS much and this quickly.

The results speak for themselves. Cleveland had the number one defense this season despite having two 6'1 guards in the starting line up (although they did step up defensively too so there's that).

So this begs the question that I don't think is unreasonable to ask, but also isn't something we should be seriously considering yet... just how far along as a defender can Evan Mobley truly get, and does he stand a chance of passing Russell as the greatest defender this league has ever seen? Hear me out.

To begin discussing that, first we have to understand what makes Evan Mobley such a great defender in the first place. With a first team all defense selection, the impression I think most people would get is that Evan doesn't possess any real weaknesses defensively. This isn't exactly true, but I'll go over that in a minute. In just about every aspect of defense, Mobley is pretty top tier. He has excellent timing on shot contesting as well as reacting to players moving with or even without the ball. He does a really great job of reading offenses and predicting what their next move will be, even when the play is happening far away from where he is at. It's well known at this point that Mobley has a very high basketball IQ, which is one of the reasons why he's able to read the floor so well. I think he does a great job of directing traffic too, helping teammates know where they need to be at all times since, you know, he can't do everything out there on his own.

But there are two main things that really stand out to me that have allowed him to already ascend to first team and DPOY finalist status.

1. The team he plays for. See, Mobley was drafted into a pretty fortunate situation. He wasn't just selected by a team that is now going to be a consistent playoff contender for years to come with great teammates surrounding him, but he's got a perfect running mate at the center position in Jarrett Allen, who shares a lot of similarities as a player. They are both terrific defensive big men capable of covering both the rim and the perimeter (more on that later). Because Allen is the one getting the starting center minutes, this puts Mobley in a unique spot. At PF with Allen holding down the paint, Mobley gets to roam the court. This goes into the first main thing that really stands out about Mobley, and that is his ability to cover so much ground. At 6'11 with long arms and great mobility, Mobley covers a lot of ground almost effortlessly. It's because of this physical advantage that Mobley makes a tremendous defensive impact on teams that we haven't seen before in a long time. If Mobley didn't have a Jarrett Allen on his team and he was just regulated to playing at the center position, he would not be able to get away with roaming around as much as he does. This creates a unique matchup advantage for Cleveland defensively.

2. His perimeter defense. Evan Mobley has some of the best perimeter defense I have ever seen for a big man. He has demonstrated the ability to be able to hang with very quick guards at the top of the key thanks to his great footwork and length, and as a result, some of the best known offensive point guards in the league have found themselves being locked up by Mobley. There are twenty second videos on youtube just showing Mobley doing this. There seems to be this perception by some posters who don't know any better that Mobley routinely gets blown by guards however, and that's because there are a lot of instances players out at the three point line driving out past Mobley to go down to the rim. But if you actually pay attention to what's going on, and are familiar with Mobley's game and how he plays defense... that's actually not what's happening at all. What's really happening is that Mobley is purposely leaving an opening for guards to bait them into attacking the paint. The logic behind this is that Mobley has incredible length, and as I mentioned before, he's able to cover a lot of ground very quickly. He knows this and he knows he can take advantage of that in order to bait some easy empty possessions out of the offense. And remember what I just said about Jarrett Allen being his running mate? Mobley knows that Allen is back there protecting the rim as well. As I just said, people who are paying attention and are actually watching the games know when Mobley is actually getting beat (which is actually very rare), and is purposely allowing the defender to go past him in order to bait them into a bad possession rather than letting them get an easy three pointer.

I can't think of a better example of this than when he plays defense against Trae Young, who just doesn't have the basketball IQ to understand when he's duped by someone.

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=NBADefense

In this instance, we see two possessions where Mobley covers Trae out at the top of the key. In the first one, Mobley demonstrates his defensive footwork and clamps down Trae at the top of the key. Mobley doesn't let up and no matter what Trae tries, he can't shake Mobley off of him. So Mobley lets Trae dribble into the paint. Notice how Mobley never lets up however and he constantly stays right by Young. When Young finally does get off a shot attempt, it's a very bad shot and Mobley is able to easily contest it from behind. In the second instance, Trae shows that he is considering a three point attempt. Mobley fully extends his hand up to deny any possibility of a clean look from there. Just like the previous instance, Mobley understands that his main goal is to deny the easy three, so he just does enough to make sure Trae is aware that he's around, and when he gives him enough room, he baits Young into taking a poor shot with bad positioning, as he knows Allen is there waiting for him. Without even realizing it, Trae got played by Mobley and he did exactly what Evan was hoping he would do. Obviously the best of the best can make shots like that look easy, but as a defender, your job is to make the people you are guarding try to take the worst shot attempts possible. You want them to go outside of their comfort zone. That may be a shot Trae has made a lot, but it's still not a good shot at the end of the day and was something he rushed himself into doing.

A player of Mobley's height and length who can do something like this to someone like Trae is a dangerous defensive player. But when you combine that with his ability to protect the rim the way he does, a discussion needs to be had about what could be next on the table for him...

Which leads me to the question: what can Mobley be at the height of his game defensively? At only 21 years of age, the general trend with any NBA player is that they improve on their skillsets as the years go on and reach a stage in their career where they are at the height of their game. But what we're seeing from Mobley can already be comparable to some of the things we're seeing from the best defenders in the game. I guess what Anthony Davis is currently doing right now in his current playoff run? I can't even begin to imagine someone doing THAT but on a regular basis.

So with that said... what are Mobley's weaknesses? I mean, defensively you'd be hard pressed to find any legitimate weaknesses that Mobley possesses. Last season it was the ability to maintain consistent defensive coverage at the center position, but that wasn't an issue for him this year. I don't think there ever will be such a thing as a perfect defender, and while the all defense team selections are not the be all end all, I'd be willing to at least consider that at the very least, someone who receives consideration for it, let alone makes it, doesn't possess many weaknesses that warrant very serious discussion. Sure there are kinks and cracks here and there that can be ironed out, but are they large enough to be exploited for an entire series?

In Mobley's case, not really.

But theland you say, didn't we just see that happen? Well, no. But now that I'm getting to that part, it's time to briefly discuss Mobley's one critical weakness... and that is his weight.

We all know it, the dude is pretty skinny and small for someone of his height. The New York Knicks were able to brilliantly exploit this weakness and use it to almost completely neutralize Mobley entirely. Sure the defense was still there, but with a team that desperately needed offense from arguably its third best player, the Knicks were able to do more than enough to neutralize him. I've mentioned in multiple threads that Mobley needs to at least make an attempt to reach 240 pounds. If he does so and can work on his offensive game... then that leads to the question...

How great of a player can Evan Mobley truly become?

Kevin Garnett tier? Tim Duncan like many have claimed he could become one day? I mean that's a top ten all time player right there... that's a pretty big ask of him. But I think looking at this from the perspective of "he's the next Tim Duncan" is off base. Right now he's not at that level, at least he hasn't shown us he can be yet.

The question we should be asking is... does Evan have what it takes based on what we are seeing? And honestly... yeah, he absolutely does.

The defense is already there. He's made first team all defense. He doesn't really have to prove anything to us in that regard. And he's already made history by accomplishing that. He's the first one to do it at his age. This is a hell of a start. But the real progress and where all eyes should be on is the offensive development and whether or not he can unlock his hidden potential in that area. Can he excel in that side of the floor like he does on the other? Can he take over games with his scoring? Can he, dare I say... lead his team to a championship one day?

I guess we aren't really going to know the answer to that for a while. But I'm curious as to your guys thoughts on this matter.

[HeartBreakKid]

Sure

I feel bad saying this little because of how long your post is so I'll say it again

Yeah, he's good. I'm a believer.

[tsherkin]

He has potential. Still blows at the line. Still not remarkable at drawing fouls. Still not shooting enough past 10 feet to really evaluate his perimeter touch. Definitely no 3pt range yet. Not a stunner in terms of efficiency. Bit of a leap finishing in close, and did a better job of getting those shots. Watching him, he's got pretty fluid handles and good mobility, and he has pretty smooth mechanics on his jumper (even pulling up), so like you can see the foundation for someone better than he's played so far. He's young and the development curve is often pretty steep in general, though delayed some for bigs. He has definitely earned some patience and maybe a little more feature time in the offense.

I dunno about the "next great big," but he's definitely someone to watch.

[Colbinii]

Good thread.

For starters, I dont really have a tier difference between KG/Duncan but it is more likely he ends signifciantly below them than close to them.

My main issue with him is his shooting. It is bad--horrible--and given his horrific free throw shooting, he doesn't project to ever be a good 3P shooter, which limits his skill-set and caps his ceiling in the modern NBA.

Ironically, we already had discourse over this the past few weeks.

Improbable? Huh? How long have you been watching the NBA that you think the idea of him improving from outside is improbable based on those numbers?

It is quite low.

The natural comparison is Brook Lopez, but he was an 80% FT shooter out of the gate with only one season < 78% FT in his first 9 seasons [8 full seasons]. Mobley was 66% and 67% in his first 2 seasons.

Aaron Gordon is a great comparison. Career 68% FT and 32.5% 3P
Giannis is a career 70% FT and 29% 3P
Nurcik is 67% FT and 29% 3P
Wendell Carter Jr is 73% FT and 32% 3P
Kelly Oubre Jr is 75% FT and 33% 3P

Mobley is 67% FT and 23% 3P

Mobley can improve, but the likelihood he improves to a defendable 3P shooter [35-36%] is basically zero while the chance he even gets up to 30% is low [and he isn't going to be defended at 30% from 3].

Mobley isn't remotely close to KG as a midrange shooter/scorer.

KG is closer to Dirk than Mobley is to KG. Keep in mind Dirk took a massive leap in his age 22 season.

KG Age 20 & 21: 43.6% 3-10, 44.4% 10-16, 44.8% 16-3P
Dirk Age 20 & 21: 36.2% 3-10, 38.9% 10-16, 48.3% 16-3P
Mobley Age 20 & 21: 39.9% 3-10, 40.4% from 10-16, 37.5% from 16-3P

This isn't to say Mobley can't or won't improve, but he is behind both these all-time great mid-range shooters and doesn't project to get there as FT% is the single best indicator for mid-range shooting.

That said, I am still extremely bull-ish on Mobley. I doubt he ever becomes an MVP player but he can theoretically still be in the running for Top 5-10 player in the NBA and have insane impact on winning [I expect him to have great +/- numbers and splits]

[Blame Rasho]

People can’t compare stats from one era to this era. It is something that needs to be acknowledged and repeated. There were maybe 25 to 30 players that scored 20ppg 20 years ago compared to this year where there were over 60 players that scored 20ppg. It is much easier for players to score nowadays.

It is deeply flawed to do apples to oranges comparisons like KG scoring back then to anyone playing right now.

Some time back I saw that Draymond Green passed Dirk for 3 pointers made in the playoffs. Let’s reflect on that, and see how we view how the nba landscape was and now is.

Let’s put somethings for context, Karl Anthony Towns had had a better stat lines than a MVP Tim Duncan year, so let’s actually be objective and agree that Karl Anthony Towns isn’t anyone near Duncan despite what stats say.

I think the more reasonable thing to do is to look how Mobley compares to other bigs of his current era and how he matches up with them. Look at previous players and how they looked vs their peers. If you want get into the nitty gritty, look how they played at certain ages and what were their accomplishments instead of looking at simple minded stats.

Highlights are just that, several moments of several games where we see good plays. No one makes YouTube vids of lowlights of players.