Historically how bad is Embiids playoff decline among superstar players?

[No-more-rings]

Among historical superstars, particularly guys who are considered mvp caliber or mvp winners even, how bad is Embiid’s playoff decline/level of play?

I’m not going to post numbers, since everyone is capable of just looking it up. Sufficed to say, Embiid has had either a noticeable or even significant dropoff in 4/6 postseasons so far(18, 19, 22, 23). In 6 tries Embiid has failed to make a conference finals let alone finals or championship despite high expectations.

Is Embiid closer to an Ewing for peak/prime than he is Hakeem or Shaq?

[Colbinii]

Similar to David Robinson.

[FuShengTHEGreat]

Among historical superstars, particularly guys who are considered mvp caliber or mvp winners even, how bad is Embiid’s playoff decline/level of play?

I’m not going to post numbers, since everyone is capable of just looking it up. Sufficed to say, Embiid has had either a noticeable or even significant dropoff in 4/6 postseasons so far(18, 19, 22, 23). In 6 tries Embiid has failed to make a conference finals let alone finals or championship despite high expectations.

Is Embiid closer to an Ewing for peak/prime than he is Hakeem or Shaq?

I think its a bit unfair to say Embiid and not Philadelphia as a whole has failed to make a Conference Finals or Finals. His individual dropoff reminds me a lot of some of Wilt and David Robinsons dropoffs.

As for the last sentence Embiid so far could only dream of having a playoff series that approached Patrick Ewing vs Boston in 1990 in the 1st round.

The sample was small but imho that series by Ewing stands alongside any series by a Center in NBA history.

[RCM88x]

Similar to David Robinson.

That's what I have been thinking as well. Both aren't initiators offensively and suffer as a result. Still elite players, but hard to see them being #1 on title teams unless they have a far more optimized roster than either have/had gotten as lead players.

[magicman1978]

Drob's lowest post season BPM during his prime was 6.1. Embiid's the last two years 0.1 and 1.9.

Robinson's biggest drop off is from MVP level to all-NBA level. Embiid's drop off the last two years is from MVP level to decent to good starter level according to BPM.

Can't put him on Hakeem's or Shaq's level until he can show he's not an MVP level player only in the regular season.

[Colbinii]

Drob's lowest post season BPM during his prime was 6.1. Embiid's the last two years 0.1 and 1.9.

Robinson's biggest drop off is from MVP level to all-NBA level. Embiid's drop off the last two years is from MVP level to decent to good starter level according to BPM.

Can't put him on Hakeem's or Shaq's level until he can show he's not an MVP level player only in the regular season.

Thats because Embiid was injured the past 2 post-seasons. Look at the post-seasons prior.

[tsherkin]

Drob's lowest post season BPM during his prime was 6.1. Embiid's the last two years 0.1 and 1.9.

True. Robinson had some large collapses, but on the whole, he was a productive player... and even when he couldn't buy a basket, he was drawing fouls and hitting the offensive boards. And of course he was a monster of a help defender. 93-95 and 98 are not super favorable visions of Robinson's playoff performance, of course.

In 93, he was complete crap against the Blazers but they won 3-1 anyway. But man, was he bad. Bounced back pretty well against Phoenix. Vanished against Utah in 95 (minding that 97 Shaq had a bad series against that Utah team). Pretty rough against Phoenix in 98 (scoring wise, I mean), despite Duncan and Avery Johnson, and garbage against the Jazz. He was into his 30s and obviously post-injury, and of course you don't expect 25 ppg from him on that team next to Tim Duncan, but he really struggled to make shots, as he often did against competent/physical defenses. Similar story, right? Weak FG%, still drawing 10+ FTA/g because he slashed aggressively and hit the o-boards well, etc. Robinson's best action was in transition, second chances and exploiting height mismatches, so when you got him against someone like Karl Malone or dealing with Kersey and Clifford Robinson, he had some issues, particularly since he wasn't a particularly good shooter.

[RSCD3_]

Drob's lowest post season BPM during his prime was 6.1. Embiid's the last two years 0.1 and 1.9.

Robinson's biggest drop off is from MVP level to all-NBA level. Embiid's drop off the last two years is from MVP level to decent to good starter level according to BPM.

Can't put him on Hakeem's or Shaq's level until he can show he's not an MVP level player only in the regular season.

Thats because Embiid was injured the past 2 post-seasons. Look at the post-seasons prior.

I feel like at a certain point being injured every playoffs means we shouldn’t expect a healthy postseason (IE Chris Paul)

[Colbinii]

Drob's lowest post season BPM during his prime was 6.1. Embiid's the last two years 0.1 and 1.9.

Robinson's biggest drop off is from MVP level to all-NBA level. Embiid's drop off the last two years is from MVP level to decent to good starter level according to BPM.

Can't put him on Hakeem's or Shaq's level until he can show he's not an MVP level player only in the regular season.

Thats because Embiid was injured the past 2 post-seasons. Look at the post-seasons prior.

I feel like at a certain point being injured every playoffs means we shouldn’t expect a healthy postseason (IE Chris Paul)

I agree. Then we should say that.

[The Master]

This is historical decline due to combination of lack of resilience/health issues.

Embiid's RS average is 27.9 PER and 6.5 BPM, with 21.6 PER and 3.5 BPM in the playoffs. DRob was at 27.8 PER and 8.7 BPM, respectively, in RS, and 24.1 PER and 6.5 BPM in the postseason (until 1997).

In defense of Embiid I would say that on several occasions (2019/2023) he was much better defensively in the postseason than in regular season.

I believe that he's skilled enough and 'young' enough to figure it out and perhaps achieve a better playoff run than anything what Malone or DRob did as team's anchors. But since it's not a given, so far Embiid is among the least resilient superstars ever in the postseason, and it's hard for to me to find an equivalent, since Malone's or DRob's decline in the playoffs statistically was nowhere near to what Embiid has done so far under these specific circumstances.

[MartinToVaught]

DRob at his peak would have been ecstatic to have the rosters Embiid's squandered in his career. He still gets criticized to this day for losing to the stacked Rockets in the conference finals with Sean Elliot and Avery Johnson as his best teammates, meanwhile Embiid couldn't even get to the conference finals with Jimmy Butler and "the greatest starting 5 ever." And he was getting exposed by a post-prime Marc Gasol, not Hakeem.

[JVL]

Historically awful. I've been watching the NBA since 2001. I can't ever remember an MVP playing like this in a game 7, or any for that matter, playoff closeout game. He wasn't just rendered ineffective by the Celtics, he just didn't care.

[eminence]

Historically awful. I've been watching the NBA since 2001. I can't ever remember an MVP playing like this in a game 7, or any for that matter, playoff closeout game. He wasn't just rendered ineffective by the Celtics, he just didn't care.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200705030GSW.html

Is of course the one that comes to mind as comparable (I'd say a bit worse).

The next step down (up?) is probably Curry in '16 and Kobe in '08.

Those are probably the bottom 4 final performances for MVPs in the 21st century.

'99 Karl Malone would be there too. Don't remember final games of MVPs prior to the mid 90s, would have to look it up more.

[magicman1978]

Drob's lowest post season BPM during his prime was 6.1. Embiid's the last two years 0.1 and 1.9.

Robinson's biggest drop off is from MVP level to all-NBA level. Embiid's drop off the last two years is from MVP level to decent to good starter level according to BPM.

Can't put him on Hakeem's or Shaq's level until he can show he's not an MVP level player only in the regular season.

Thats because Embiid was injured the past 2 post-seasons. Look at the post-seasons prior.

Was he even really healthy the prior post-seasons? Feel like he's missed games every post-season. In the past, players played injured without us even knowing a lot of times. And they usually wouldn't miss games because of precautionary purposes so there's no way for us to go back and assess that fairly. At this point, I think if you're playing 37-39 minutes per game, you're healthy enough to be doing more (see LeBron).

[Doctor MJ]

Among historical superstars, particularly guys who are considered mvp caliber or mvp winners even, how bad is Embiid’s playoff decline/level of play?

I’m not going to post numbers, since everyone is capable of just looking it up. Sufficed to say, Embiid has had either a noticeable or even significant dropoff in 4/6 postseasons so far(18, 19, 22, 23). In 6 tries Embiid has failed to make a conference finals let alone finals or championship despite high expectations.

Is Embiid closer to an Ewing for peak/prime than he is Hakeem or Shaq?

So, multiple questions here, to the first one:

I think people overstate how much Embiid drops off in the playoffs when they talk about it as if his stuff just doesn't work in the playoffs. If we look at playoff +/- totals for the 76ers, here are some of the key players:

Embiid +275
Simmons +131
Butler +98
Mutombo -10
Harden -23
Iverson -71

So we really shouldn't be talking about Embiid as if he's the proverbial "82 game player" as if his stuff only works in the regular season.

Obviously the bigger criticism here is that Embiid has never in his entire career played a total of 82 games in a season even when you include the playoffs. And that's relevant because the reality is that Embiid really does seem to be hurt every playoffs.

Now, there are some issues we can pinpoint:

1. In the regular season Embiid has an argument for best scorer in the world, but in the playoffs he drops down some. With greater defensive pressure on him, he struggles to score as well, and his passing is limited.

2. I think we've really seen at this point that the idea that Jokic is specifically "the big that can be exploited by playoff offense" is an illusion. Embiid is a much better rim protecting presence...which is why the Celtics looked to drag him out to the perimeter and then attacked him successfully out there.

To the comparison with other guys:

First we have to acknowledge the difference in era. If Embiid played in the '90s, no one would be looking to drag him to the perimeter, and so his size would remain more of a defensive strength.

So, I'd say Embiid in the playoffs probably is less effective than Ewing/Hakeem/Shaq was, but I don't know if I'd expect either Ewing or Shaq to be as effective as Embiid today.

I would definitely take Olajuwon over Embiid today though.

[LukaTheGOAT]

I think perhaps you could argue his PS drop isn't as bad as some others as his defense I think goes up a tick in the PS, which separates him from offense-only guys who drop similarly. Furthermore, I suppose you could also argue often we don't get to see Embiid at 100% in the PS like other guys, however maybe we should bake that into his evaluation as a player.

The cold-hard numbers:

Joel Embiid 2019-23 (RS ➜ PS):

pts/75: 31.0 ➜ 27.0
trb/75: 12.8 ➜ 11.6
ast/75: 3.9 ➜ 3.0
stk/75: 2.7 ➜ 2.7
tov/75: 3.7 ➜ 4.0
rTS% (TS+): +4.4 (108 TS+) ➜ +3.8 (104 TS+)

To Embiid's Credit, I do think his defense shows sign of another gear in the PS. He can't really put a lid on the rim when engaged. He is probably a tier down from Giannis and AD in terms of overall defensive value due to not having as much versatility, but nonetheless I do think that is admirable.

His playoff plus-minus indicators have been generally good because I do think he is so invaluable to Philly on defense.

However, Embiid's scoring drop, turnovers/decision-making issues, less ability to initiate fouls, and insistence on trying to play as a pure wing stopper times, leads to more turnovers than you would like. I still don't know if I love Embiid when up against complicated defensive schemes with double-teams.

Against Brooklyn, his scoring was chipped away at, and Boston had success as well. I think Embiid probably prefers to playmake from the perimeter/high-post versus the block because of preference as a passer. I also think Embiid maybe isn't the best at passing with his left, which makes it easier for teams to make him uncomfortable as a playmaker when they force him to pass with it.

For the series, according to nba.com, Horford held Embiid to 82 total points on 80 shots and a 46.4 TS% (10.1% worse than the playoff average TS%).

Overall, I think he drops down a tier in overall historically quality when you emphasize PS play, but still very good. So, he goes from competing with Jokic and Giannis types, to a tier below them overall I would say.

[Doctor MJ]

Joel Embiid 2019-23 (RS ➜ PS):

pts/75: 31.0 ➜ 27.0
trb/75: 12.8 ➜ 11.6
ast/75: 3.9 ➜ 3.0
stk/75: 2.7 ➜ 2.7
tov/75: 3.7 ➜ 4.0
rTS% (TS+): +4.4 (108 TS+) ➜ +3.8 (104 TS+)

To Embiid's Credit, I do think his defense shows sign of another gear in the PS. He can't really put a lid on the rim when engaged. He is probably a tier down from Giannis and AD in terms of overall defensive value due to not having as much versatility, but nonetheless I do think that is admirable.

His playoff plus-minus indicators have been generally good because I do think he is so invaluable to Philly on defense.

However, Embiid's scoring drop, turnovers/decision-making issues, less ability to initiate fouls, and insistence on trying to play as a pure wing stopper times, leads to more turnovers than you would like. I still don't know if I love Embiid when up against complicated defensive schemes with double-teams.

Against Brooklyn, his scoring was chipped away at, and Boston had success as well.

Overall, I think he drops down a tier in overall historically quality when you emphasize PS play, but still very good. So, he goes from competing with Jokic and Giannis types, to a tier below them overall I would say.

Well, only one of these players has a repeated trend of getting upset multiple rounds before they were supposed to, and it's not Embiid, so I think we can cut Embiid some slack as not the only one with playoff issues here.

[Cavsfansince84]

I think if we considered Embiid to be a top 30 player of all time(Which I don't) he'd be at the bottom of the list in terms of how he performs in the playoffs with Harden slightly above him.

[No-more-rings]

I think perhaps you could argue his PS drop isn't as bad as some others as his defense I think goes up a tick in the PS, which separates him from offense-only guys who drop similarly. Furthermore, I suppose you could also argue often we don't get to see Embiid at 100% in the PS like other guys, however maybe we should bake that into his evaluation as a player.

The cold-hard numbers:

Joel Embiid 2019-23 (RS ➜ PS):

pts/75: 31.0 ➜ 27.0
trb/75: 12.8 ➜ 11.6
ast/75: 3.9 ➜ 3.0
stk/75: 2.7 ➜ 2.7
tov/75: 3.7 ➜ 4.0
rTS% (TS+): +4.4 (108 TS+) ➜ +3.8 (104 TS+)

To Embiid's Credit, I do think his defense shows sign of another gear in the PS. He can't really put a lid on the rim when engaged. He is probably a tier down from Giannis and AD in terms of overall defensive value due to not having as much versatility, but nonetheless I do think that is admirable.

His playoff plus-minus indicators have been generally good because I do think he is so invaluable to Philly on defense.

However, Embiid's scoring drop, turnovers/decision-making issues, less ability to initiate fouls, and insistence on trying to play as a pure wing stopper times, leads to more turnovers than you would like. I still don't know if I love Embiid when up against complicated defensive schemes with double-teams.

Against Brooklyn, his scoring was chipped away at, and Boston had success as well.

For the series, according to nba.com, Horford held Embiid to 82 total points on 80 shots and a 46.4 TS% (10.1% worse than the playoff average TS%).

Overall, I think he drops down a tier in overall historically quality when you emphasize PS play, but still very good. So, he goes from competing with Jokic and Giannis types, to a tier below them overall I would say.

If injuries are the reason his offense declinces, then how is he able to supposedly up his defense at the same time?

Would injuries not theoretically hurt a player on both ends not just one?

[capfan33]

I think perhaps you could argue his PS drop isn't as bad as some others as his defense I think goes up a tick in the PS, which separates him from offense-only guys who drop similarly. Furthermore, I suppose you could also argue often we don't get to see Embiid at 100% in the PS like other guys, however maybe we should bake that into his evaluation as a player.

The cold-hard numbers:

Joel Embiid 2019-23 (RS ➜ PS):

pts/75: 31.0 ➜ 27.0
trb/75: 12.8 ➜ 11.6
ast/75: 3.9 ➜ 3.0
stk/75: 2.7 ➜ 2.7
tov/75: 3.7 ➜ 4.0
rTS% (TS+): +4.4 (108 TS+) ➜ +3.8 (104 TS+)

To Embiid's Credit, I do think his defense shows sign of another gear in the PS. He can't really put a lid on the rim when engaged. He is probably a tier down from Giannis and AD in terms of overall defensive value due to not having as much versatility, but nonetheless I do think that is admirable.

His playoff plus-minus indicators have been generally good because I do think he is so invaluable to Philly on defense.

However, Embiid's scoring drop, turnovers/decision-making issues, less ability to initiate fouls, and insistence on trying to play as a pure wing stopper times, leads to more turnovers than you would like. I still don't know if I love Embiid when up against complicated defensive schemes with double-teams.

Against Brooklyn, his scoring was chipped away at, and Boston had success as well.

For the series, according to nba.com, Horford held Embiid to 82 total points on 80 shots and a 46.4 TS% (10.1% worse than the playoff average TS%).

Overall, I think he drops down a tier in overall historically quality when you emphasize PS play, but still very good. So, he goes from competing with Jokic and Giannis types, to a tier below them overall I would say.

If injuries are the reason his offense declinces, then how is he able to supposedly up his defense at the same time?

Would injuries not theoretically hurt a player on both ends not just one?

They don't affect players equally and it's also dependent on what exactly a player does on both sides of the court.