RealGM

Point Guard


Steph Curry
Luka Doncic
Dame Lillard
Shai Alexander
Ja Morant
D. Fox
Jaylen Brunson
Trae Young
Kyrie Irving

Shooting Guard


Devon Booker
Jaylen Brown
Donavan Mitchell
James Harden


Small Forward


Lebron
KD
Jayson Tatum
Jimmy Butler


Power Forward


Giannis
AD
Bam
Zion
Lauri Markkanen


Center


Jokic
Embiid
Gobert

I didn't include Kawhi or PG because they are too injured. (Although, I already know I'm inconsistent including Zion but it's hard to keep him out just on pure Ability.

Just missed the cut:

Siakam, Zach Lavine, Brandon Ingram, Anthony Edwards, DeMar DeRozan

mdonnelly1989 wrote:Just missed the cut:

Siakam, Zach Lavine, Brandon Ingram, Anthony Edwards, DeMar DeRozan

Jamal Murray should at least get an honorable mention after this playoff run. Although I'd have him in the top 25.

Players that I may drop from this list: Gobert (seems to have lost a step), Markannen (no problem at all with him in the top 25, but compared to Murray I would like to see him in the playoffs first), Zion (definitely belongs there when he plays, but does he play enough?). In addition to Murray I would probably add Edwards to the top 25.

LeBron, Kyrie and Harden are the guys that will probably drop out fairly soon, but are still in.

Sabonis and Garland also deserve honorable mentions.

-Luke- wrote:

mdonnelly1989 wrote:Just missed the cut:

Siakam, Zach Lavine, Brandon Ingram, Anthony Edwards, DeMar DeRozan

Jamal Murray should at least get an honorable mention after this playoff run. Although I'd have him in the top 25.

Players that I may drop from this list: Gobert (seems to have lost a step), Markannen (no problem at all with him in the top 25, but compared to Murray I would like to see him in the playoffs first), Zion (definitely belongs there when he plays, but does he play enough?). In addition to Murray I would probably add Edwards to the top 25.

LeBron, Kyrie and Harden are the guys that will probably drop out fairly soon, but are still in.

Sabonis and Garland also deserve honorable mentions.

True on Murray. But it's wild because PG has 10 of the top 25 already then.

I'd actually consider Sabonis over Gobert TBH. And Garland def is borderline top 25 for sure.

imo, Sabonis is in there somewhere.

To not put him in the top 25 is placing WAY too much emphasis on a 7-game sample.


For instance I'm noting he was [in the rs] 6th in the league in WS/48, and 15th in each of PER and BPM; this while missing just 3 games all year (every single player ahead of him in BPM missed 13 games or more; of the guys ahead of him in PER, Tatum missed 8 games [the rest missed 13+]). His arrival coincides with an 18-game improvement in the W column, and a +7.56 SRS change. Was All-NBA 3rd Team and 7th in MVP voting (for whatever those things are worth to you).

I mean we're not talking about top 12 or top 15; just the top 25.
Even with a flubbed 7-game series, I feel like the above is sufficient to nudge him into that group, no problem.

Question for OP:
Are we talking about top 25 in the current season now drawing to a close (including postseason), next year, or something else (like ignoring health and salary concerns). If the first, then Zion wouldn't even be close playing only 29 games (or possibly even the second considering his games played history); if the second, then age considerations come into play and someone might vote the magic rookie; if the 3rd, again, more than 10% of the list may change.

penbeast0 wrote:Question for OP:
Are we talking about top 25 in the current season now drawing to a close (including postseason), next year, or something else (like ignoring health and salary concerns). If the first, then Zion wouldn't even be close playing only 29 games (or possibly even the second considering his games played history); if the second, then age considerations come into play and someone might vote the magic rookie; if the 3rd, again, more than 10% of the list may change.

We are talking about right now.

Basically IMO it's if a new season started today, who would be the top 25 player to give you the best Odds to win a championship over the next one season, given the most recent history.

This IMO is the best way to go about my question. (You're right, Zion shouldn't be in with only 29 games. And in that case, Sabonis should take his place.

mdonnelly1989 wrote:I didn't include Kawhi or PG because they are too injured. (Although, I already know I'm inconsistent including Zion but it's hard to keep him out just on pure Ability.

Just missed the cut:

Siakam, Zach Lavine, Brandon Ingram, Anthony Edwards, DeMar DeRozan

OK, having Zion in but not Kawhi is downright nonsensical. Since Zion entered the league he’s played 221 games to Zion’s 114 and when he was healthy he looked like he might be the second best player in the league.

If I’m trying to win a championship for a new season now, I’d go:

Tier 1: Jokic
Tier 2: Giannis, Butler, Tatum, Embiid, Luka
Tier 3: Davis, Dame, SGA, LeBron, Booker, Kawhi, Steph, Markkanen
Tier 4: Murray, Brunson, Mitchell, Garland, Brown, Sabonis, Jrue, JJJ, Zion, Towns, George

C Jokic/Embiid/Sabonis/Adebayo/Town/Gobert/Davis
PF Giannis/Zion/Markannen/Randle/Durant/Lebron/Siakam/JJJ/Green
SF Tatum/Brown/Butler/DeRozan/George/Kawhi/Bridges/Ingram/Middleton/Wiggs
SG Booker/Lavine/Mitchell/Beal/Edwards/Shai
PG Curry/Doncic/Garland/Young/Harden/Holiday/Brunson/Haliburton/Fox/Morant/Murray/Irving/Lillard/LaMelo

iggymcfrack wrote:If I’m trying to win a championship for a new season now, I’d go:

Tier 1: Jokic
Tier 2: Giannis, Butler, Tatum, Embiid, Luka
Tier 3: Davis, Dame, SGA, LeBron, Booker, Kawhi, Steph, Markkanen
Tier 4: Murray, Brunson, Mitchell, Garland, Brown, Sabonis, Jrue, JJJ, Zion, Towns, George

I find that interesting you don't have Lebron and Steph in teir two. Tatum imo showed he's not an elite superstar this past series.

mdonnelly1989 wrote:

iggymcfrack wrote:If I’m trying to win a championship for a new season now, I’d go:

Tier 1: Jokic
Tier 2: Giannis, Butler, Tatum, Embiid, Luka
Tier 3: Davis, Dame, SGA, LeBron, Booker, Kawhi, Steph, Markkanen
Tier 4: Murray, Brunson, Mitchell, Garland, Brown, Sabonis, Jrue, JJJ, Zion, Towns, George

I find that interesting you don't have Lebron and Steph in teir two. Tatum imo showed he's not an elite superstar this past series.

Tatum’s numbers were mostly equivalent to LeBron and Steph’s this postseason after being better in the regular season and on average he’s much more likely to play any given game than either of the old guys. Like if we assume everyone’s healthy they might be in the same tier, but Tatum has a massive durability edge that can’t be ignored.