RealGM

Posted: **Wed Jun 21, 2023 9:15 pm**

With all the great players in the NBA in recent years like Curry, KD, etc, is it even defensible to have Kobe top 15 these days?

Posted: **Wed Jun 21, 2023 9:20 pm**

I do have him inside top 15 and I don't think any active player outside of Curry and LeBron have a strong argument over Kobe for career value.

Posted: **Wed Jun 21, 2023 9:39 pm**

Yes

Peak is more debatable, career less so. But anyone can screw around with their criteria enough to put him either as in the top 5 or outside of the top 25.

Posted: **Wed Jun 21, 2023 9:40 pm**

70sFan wrote:I do have him inside top 15 and I don't think any active player outside of Curry and LeBron have a strong argument over Kobe for career value.

I don’t see how you can say Chris Paul doesn’t have a strong argument. He could pass Kobe for career games played this year. Meanwhile in 26 year RAPM, Chris Paul ranks #3 overall behind only LeBron and KG while Kobe ranks #73 overall behind Ron Harper and Chuck Hayes. For their careers, Paul’s teams performed at a NetRtg of +6.9 with him on the floor compared to +4.2 for Kobe even though Kobe’s teams performed 2.3 points better with the stars on the bench.

Kobe was healthier in the playoffs than Paul, but he also sabotaged a dynasty because he didn’t like being the #2 and literally quit on his team at halftime of a Game 7 in 2006. Personally I’d have Paul far ahead of Kobe. I don’t think it’s even particularly close.

Posted: **Wed Jun 21, 2023 9:47 pm**

I have him top 15 (I want to say 11th as of last check - not ranking Mikan on that list). Can see a top 10 case, struggle to see him outside of the top 20. LeBron is the only current player I have above him, though I expect Curry will get there. Younger guys still quite a ways off.

I don't see KD/Harden/CP3 getting to him at this point without a surprise turnaround.

He's on the low end of peak/prime play for top 15 contenders (by my eye and most metrics), but has good longevity ('99-'13 as a strong contributor) and pretty much all the accolade type success you could ask for, both individual and team.

I guess I'm not sure what would lead one to think of him as a poor case for top 15, not top 20 type of guy?

Edit: A brief aside on huge sample APM data - I don't like it basically. Large portions of the variables (players) don't 'see' one another and aging curve models become a notable factor in the overall model.

Posted: **Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:00 pm**

Posted: **Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:00 pm**

eminence wrote:I have him top 15 (I want to say 11th as of last check - not ranking Mikan on that list). Can see a top 10 case, struggle to see him outside of the top 20. LeBron is the only current player I have above him, though I expect Curry will get there. Younger guys still quite a ways off.

I don't see KD/Harden/CP3 getting to him at this point without a surprise turnaround.

He's on the low end of peak/prime play for top 15 contenders (by my eye and most metrics), but has good longevity ('99-'13 as a strong contributor) and pretty much all the accolade type success you could ask for, both individual and team.

I guess I'm not sure what would lead one to think of him as a poor case for top 15, not top 20 type of guy?

Edit: A brief aside on huge sample APM data - I don't like it basically. Large portions of the variables (players) don't 'see' one another and aging curve models become a notable factor in the overall model.

I’m pretty unaware of APM data, what do you mean by not seeing one another?

Posted: **Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:01 pm**

I think I'm more kind towards Kobe the player than I am to some who just sort of gloss over his negatives as a player. It's a really dishonest form of evaluation imo when people only talk about his strengths and don't want to see his limitations/weaknesses. Even statistically speaking his case for top 10 isn't that strong. His longevity is fairly good but it's really the rings and his place as a Laker icon that has gotten him top 10 or even top 5 talk over the years imo. If he'd been a career Nugget or Hawk who won 1 ring it'd be easier for many people to accept him being in the 15-20 range. I have him at about 15 but anywhere from 13-18 seems acceptable to me.

Posted: **Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:02 pm**

Definitely. Him and Hakeem are my top 10 gate keeper

Posted: **Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:05 pm**

iggymcfrack wrote:
70sFan wrote:I do have him inside top 15 and I don't think any active player outside of Curry and LeBron have a strong argument over Kobe for career value.

I don’t see how you can say Chris Paul doesn’t have a strong argument. He could pass Kobe for career games played this year. Meanwhile in 26 year RAPM, Chris Paul ranks #3 overall behind only LeBron and KG while Kobe ranks #73 overall behind Ron Harper and Chuck Hayes. For their careers, Paul’s teams performed at a NetRtg of +6.9 with him on the floor compared to +4.2 for Kobe even though Kobe’s teams performed 2.3 points better with the stars on the bench.

Kobe was healthier in the playoffs than Paul, but he also sabotaged a dynasty because he didn’t like being the #2 and literally quit on his team at halftime of a Game 7 in 2006. Personally I’d have Paul far ahead of Kobe. I don’t think it’s even particularly close.

GSP wrote: go gettem tiger

Posted: **Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:05 pm**

iggymcfrack wrote:
70sFan wrote:I do have him inside top 15 and I don't think any active player outside of Curry and LeBron have a strong argument over Kobe for career value.

I don’t see how you can say Chris Paul doesn’t have a strong argument. He could pass Kobe for career games played this year. Meanwhile in 26 year RAPM, Chris Paul ranks #3 overall behind only LeBron and KG while Kobe ranks #73 overall behind Ron Harper and Chuck Hayes. For their careers, Paul’s teams performed at a NetRtg of +6.9 with him on the floor compared to +4.2 for Kobe even though Kobe’s teams performed 2.3 points better with the stars on the bench.

Kobe was healthier in the playoffs than Paul, but he also sabotaged a dynasty because he didn’t like being the #2 and literally quit on his team at halftime of a Game 7 in 2006. Personally I’d have Paul far ahead of Kobe. I don’t think it’s even particularly close.

Shouldn't that tell you don't look at RAPM?

Posted: **Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:06 pm**

MyUniBroDavis wrote:
eminence wrote:I have him top 15 (I want to say 11th as of last check - not ranking Mikan on that list). Can see a top 10 case, struggle to see him outside of the top 20. LeBron is the only current player I have above him, though I expect Curry will get there. Younger guys still quite a ways off.

I don't see KD/Harden/CP3 getting to him at this point without a surprise turnaround.

He's on the low end of peak/prime play for top 15 contenders (by my eye and most metrics), but has good longevity ('99-'13 as a strong contributor) and pretty much all the accolade type success you could ask for, both individual and team.

I guess I'm not sure what would lead one to think of him as a poor case for top 15, not top 20 type of guy?

Edit: A brief aside on huge sample APM data - I don't like it basically. Large portions of the variables (players) don't 'see' one another and aging curve models become a notable factor in the overall model.

I’m pretty unaware of APM data, what do you mean by not seeing one another?

Players who never played with or against one another. Eg in the 26 year set you'll have both Stockton and Tatum.

If I remembered my algebra better I could tell you more, but generally speaking it's not good/more difficult to accurately solve a system where significant numbers of the variables are never in the same equation.

Posted: **Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:07 pm**

eminence wrote:
MyUniBroDavis wrote:
eminence wrote:I have him top 15 (I want to say 11th as of last check - not ranking Mikan on that list). Can see a top 10 case, struggle to see him outside of the top 20. LeBron is the only current player I have above him, though I expect Curry will get there. Younger guys still quite a ways off.

I don't see KD/Harden/CP3 getting to him at this point without a surprise turnaround.

He's on the low end of peak/prime play for top 15 contenders (by my eye and most metrics), but has good longevity ('99-'13 as a strong contributor) and pretty much all the accolade type success you could ask for, both individual and team.

I guess I'm not sure what would lead one to think of him as a poor case for top 15, not top 20 type of guy?

Edit: A brief aside on huge sample APM data - I don't like it basically. Large portions of the variables (players) don't 'see' one another and aging curve models become a notable factor in the overall model.

I’m pretty unaware of APM data, what do you mean by not seeing one another?

Players who never played with or against one another. Eg in the 26 year set you'll have both Stockton and Tatum.

If I remembered my algebra better I could tell you more, but generally speaking it's not good/more difficult to accurately solve a system where significant numbers of the variables are never in the same equation.

Yeah I thought that’s what you meant but just wanted to make sure

Posted: **Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:14 pm**

I'd have multiple current players as above him, and multiple players on pace to be ahead of him by the time they retire.

Lebron, KD, Giannis, Jokic, Curry, etc. These guys are either ahead of him now, or will be. Maybe CP3 too. I won''t argue Harden, but some definitely could make a case for him. If Kawhi had longevity he'd be above him too, for peak he already is.

Posted: **Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:23 pm**

If you have cp3 over Kobe you aren’t a real human being lmfao

Posted: **Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:28 pm**

Unless the guy is very close already to the point some already prefer them (Curry imo) I don't really see the point of 'will-be' projections. If Giannis retires tomorrow or turns into Walton there's just no chance he's commonly ranked above Kobe.

Posted: **Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:39 pm**

dygaction wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:
70sFan wrote:I do have him inside top 15 and I don't think any active player outside of Curry and LeBron have a strong argument over Kobe for career value.

I don’t see how you can say Chris Paul doesn’t have a strong argument. He could pass Kobe for career games played this year. Meanwhile in 26 year RAPM, Chris Paul ranks #3 overall behind only LeBron and KG while Kobe ranks #73 overall behind Ron Harper and Chuck Hayes. For their careers, Paul’s teams performed at a NetRtg of +6.9 with him on the floor compared to +4.2 for Kobe even though Kobe’s teams performed 2.3 points better with the stars on the bench.

Kobe was healthier in the playoffs than Paul, but he also sabotaged a dynasty because he didn’t like being the #2 and literally quit on his team at halftime of a Game 7 in 2006. Personally I’d have Paul far ahead of Kobe. I don’t think it’s even particularly close.

Shouldn't that tell you don't look at RAPM?

No, it tells me a great all-around player who’s a tremendous passer, playmaker, and defender who consistently makes his teams better year after year is more valuable than a pure scorer who’s too selfish to get his teammates involved or put in the same effort on D that he does scoring the ball.

Posted: **Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:46 pm**

iggymcfrack wrote:
I don’t see how you can say Chris Paul doesn’t have a strong argument. He could pass Kobe for career games played this year. Meanwhile in 26 year RAPM, Chris Paul ranks #3 overall behind only LeBron and KG while Kobe ranks #73 overall behind Ron Harper and Chuck Hayes. For their careers, Paul’s teams performed at a NetRtg of +6.9 with him on the floor compared to +4.2 for Kobe even though Kobe’s teams performed 2.3 points better with the stars on the bench.

Kobe was healthier in the playoffs than Paul, but he also sabotaged a dynasty because he didn’t like being the #2 and literally quit on his team at halftime of a Game 7 in 2006. Personally I’d have Paul far ahead of Kobe. I don’t think it’s even particularly close.

I think if you're going to compare CP3 to Kobe in career rapm you'd need to look at Kobe from about 00-13. I think it's well known that he drops off more at the start and end of his career than CP3 did. I mean I doubt that bridges the gap but then playoff availability/performance is the other part of it. Having said that, I don't find a CP3>Kobe for career argument terrible but Kobe is a guy I trust more to get the job done due to both health and record. If its just purely based on rs per game/minute performance then its much easier to have CP3 higher.

Posted: **Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:49 pm**

Barely at this point.

Curry is coming

Posted: **Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:58 pm**

If/when T-100 is done this summer & fall, I’m more than happy to explain why I have Kobe in the low end of top 10 all time. Some of these takes are egregious, and I’d love to hear why (aside from spamming BBRef) they may be the case.

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Is Kobe a top 15 all-time player?

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