penbeast0 wrote:With that out of the way, let's start with a basic "pure" outline applying a filter of >10 gm/season samples, keeping in mind that the sample of data being referenced is vastly larger than the RAPM set provided:
84-85, rookie hakeem sees a 29 win team become a 48 win team without notable cast change. 86, rockets are 5-5 without, and then are 51 with, and then skyrocket in the postseason notably beating the 61 win lakers in 5 with hakeem's ppg jumping off a cliff. In 87 sampson misses a bunch of games, and there's a coke crisis but the rockets are still able to win more games than a certain chicago guard. 88, rockets play like a 20 win team without and a 45 win team with, and then in 92 the rockets go 2-10 without and win 42 with him and then move to a 55 wins in 93 before b2b titles with 94 and 95.
Hakeem is one of a handful of players(post-russell, we're talking Lebron, Kareem, Robinson) to post 25+-win lift multiple times. Worth noting that this is around where RAPM tends to distribute superstar impact to role players. His peak signals are arguably era-best.
Of course, a common knock on Hakeem is his
consistency as an RS performer, but even over longer periods, he looks quite good. IIRC, if you use 10-year samples...
Hakeem takes
33-win teams to
48 wins Jordan takes
38-win teams to
53.5 winsMagic takes
44-win teams to
59 winsKeeping in mind that it's harder to lift better teams, Hakeem comes marginally behind Jordan, and slightly more behind Magic, but he's right up there with both.
Ben has his own(presumably more sophisticated) approach which likes Hakeem even better; "Prime WOWY" ranks Olajuwon
10th. Magic and Jordan rank
12th and
20th, respectively. Keep in mind the samples here are much, much smaller, but at least there aren't extraneous distortions to worry about as we may with something like WOWYR
Getting back to larger samples(or in this case, the largest possible sample), Drafting Hakeem produces a +5 SRS improvement for the Rockets without significant roster additions(this is top-ten worthys, and better than what Magic or Jordan managed), and they've reached the final(interrupting a dynasty on the way) by year two. That start looks GOAT-worthy. Then, when various catastrophes take place starting in 1987, Hakeem still does an admiral job keeping a shipwreck afloat before capitalizing spectacularly with limited help.
Pollock did some on/off for 94-96 which looks pretty good with 1994 looking like a top 60 signal from the last 30 years. Considering the 92 Rockets were outscored by
10 points in games without Hakeem, it's not hard to see inclusion of 92/93 giving Hakeem a top top 3-year peak.
Looking at BBR, we get a full 2 seasons of "impact" data for Hakeem with his on/off in 97/98(well, well past his peak), but even there, entering his mid 30's, Dream looks pretty impactful on very good teams(that's rarified air for a 13th/14th season player, even among top-tenners).
Considering the immense external adversity at play(coke crisis, incompetent
and hostile FO, co-star injured, ect.), the wear-and tear that comes with a decade-plus of
continuous high-level play(no retirements here! forced or otherwise), and the absence of a complimentary superstar to tie his minutes to(Magic had Kareem, Jordan had Pippen), I'd say Hakeem has a solid case as the most valuable
regular season player of his era.
