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Imagine neither has injuries. Who had the higher ceiling?

SHAQ32 wrote:Imagine neither has injuries. Who had the higher ceiling?

I would say Oden. You immediately eliminate his biggest problem. Then you give him time and experience to eliminate his next biggest problem - fouling. A healthy, physically confident Oden who figured out that part of the game...I think that could've been something special. Especially in that era.

Brandon Roy was a beast but I don't think he had as a big leap in him like Oden potentially had.

Oden obviously could have been the next D-Rob. Actually when he played a bit, you could see the defensive potential in him.

Roy's an average star in comparison. He can really drive the ball game, but he wasn't exactly Greg Oden.

I was always a big believer in Greg Oden's talent, so if there are no injuries as OP states, then I'm taking GO.

Brandon Roy was a phenomenal talent. Elite athlete with poise and skill at a young age to match.

But Oden's talent saw him project to be the best defensive player in the NBA for several years to go along with being a smart, efficient 1B or 2 on a top-5 offensive team. Great offensive rebounding, foul draw (and could hit FTs), super finisher in the paint, good spatial awareness for passing. Basically Shaq-lite on offense with Robinson/Ewing/Wallace-level defense. In my mind, he would have been a monster C.

Roy’s ceiling was not a whole lot higher than what we saw. He peaked as a top-10 offensive player and maybe a position-average defender. The injuries did limit his play a little, but for the most part he was able to fight through and play until he couldn’t. I’m sure he would have continued to add wrinkles if he was able to play into his late 20s but he was pretty much that player.

Oden, on the other hand, was destroyed by injuries from day one. His potential without them was sky-high. A reasonable middle-range projection is something like Dwight Howard’s career (by achievement and impact, not comparing skillsets), and on the high end he’s a multiple MVP and an all-timer. Besides the injuries the main thing that might have limited his career is that the league was beginning to move away from that style of center just a few years after he was drafted. He really did have all the potential in the world though, and even the relatively terrible version of him that we actually got showed how amazing he could have been.

I clicked Roy but probably Oden.

Even though I think Odens potential is greatly overrated and his game would have aged horribly in the new NBA it would still be higher than Roy

Roy was already at prime age when he started getting hurt so I dont see how much better he wouldve gotten than all star caliber.

I dont think he wouldve ever been MVP caliber

Red Robot wrote:Roy’s ceiling was not a whole lot higher than what we saw. He peaked as a top-10 offensive player and maybe a position-average defender. The injuries did limit his play a little, but for the most part he was able to fight through and play until he couldn’t. I’m sure he would have continued to add wrinkles if he was able to play into his late 20s but he was pretty much that player.

Oden, on the other hand, was destroyed by injuries from day one. His potential without them was sky-high. A reasonable middle-range projection is something like Dwight Howard’s career (by achievement and impact, not comparing skillsets), and on the high end he’s a multiple MVP and an all-timer. Besides the injuries the main thing that might have limited his career is that the league was beginning to move away from that style of center just a few years after he was drafted. He really did have all the potential in the world though, and even the relatively terrible version of him that we actually got showed how amazing he could have been.

I would say Roy peaked as a top 3 offensive player, if anything. And Oden's potential was multiple MVPs? Come on.

SHAQ32 wrote:

Red Robot wrote:Roy’s ceiling was not a whole lot higher than what we saw. He peaked as a top-10 offensive player and maybe a position-average defender. The injuries did limit his play a little, but for the most part he was able to fight through and play until he couldn’t. I’m sure he would have continued to add wrinkles if he was able to play into his late 20s but he was pretty much that player.

Oden, on the other hand, was destroyed by injuries from day one. His potential without them was sky-high. A reasonable middle-range projection is something like Dwight Howard’s career (by achievement and impact, not comparing skillsets), and on the high end he’s a multiple MVP and an all-timer. Besides the injuries the main thing that might have limited his career is that the league was beginning to move away from that style of center just a few years after he was drafted. He really did have all the potential in the world though, and even the relatively terrible version of him that we actually got showed how amazing he could have been.

I would say Roy peaked as a top 3 offensive player, if anything. And Oden's potential was multiple MVPs? Come on.

Yup--almost assuredly Top 5.

One Player is Kobe, the other is Roy, who was better?

Player A: 6.0 OBPM, 10.9 OWS, 38.3 FTR, 25.4 AST%, 88.1 TS+, +9.3 Offensive On/Off
Player B: 5.6 OBPM, 8.6 OWS, 32.9 FTR, 23.8 AST%, 66.8 TS+, +12.6 Offensive On/Off

Colbinii wrote:

SHAQ32 wrote:

Red Robot wrote:Roy’s ceiling was not a whole lot higher than what we saw. He peaked as a top-10 offensive player and maybe a position-average defender. The injuries did limit his play a little, but for the most part he was able to fight through and play until he couldn’t. I’m sure he would have continued to add wrinkles if he was able to play into his late 20s but he was pretty much that player.

Oden, on the other hand, was destroyed by injuries from day one. His potential without them was sky-high. A reasonable middle-range projection is something like Dwight Howard’s career (by achievement and impact, not comparing skillsets), and on the high end he’s a multiple MVP and an all-timer. Besides the injuries the main thing that might have limited his career is that the league was beginning to move away from that style of center just a few years after he was drafted. He really did have all the potential in the world though, and even the relatively terrible version of him that we actually got showed how amazing he could have been.

I would say Roy peaked as a top 3 offensive player, if anything. And Oden's potential was multiple MVPs? Come on.

Yup--almost assuredly Top 5.

One Player is Kobe, the other is Roy, who was better?

Player A: 6.0 OBPM, 10.9 OWS, 38.3 FTR, 25.4 AST%, 88.1 TS+, +9.3 Offensive On/Off
Player B: 5.6 OBPM, 8.6 OWS, 32.9 FTR, 23.8 AST%, 66.8 TS+, +12.6 Offensive On/Off

Looking at the TS+, I'm going to say Player A is Roy.

SHAQ32 wrote:

Colbinii wrote:

SHAQ32 wrote:
I would say Roy peaked as a top 3 offensive player, if anything. And Oden's potential was multiple MVPs? Come on.

Yup--almost assuredly Top 5.

One Player is Kobe, the other is Roy, who was better?

Player A: 6.0 OBPM, 10.9 OWS, 38.3 FTR, 25.4 AST%, 88.1 TS+, +9.3 Offensive On/Off
Player B: 5.6 OBPM, 8.6 OWS, 32.9 FTR, 23.8 AST%, 66.8 TS+, +12.6 Offensive On/Off

Looking at the TS+, I'm going to say Player A is Roy.

Yes, it's 2009 Roy.

I’ve got to go with Roy simply because he proved at his best he was already arguably a top 5 player. Oden never had a stretch like that, you can argue he would have if he were never injured but we never saw it.

SHAQ32 wrote:Imagine neither has injuries. Who had the higher ceiling?

It's a great question. Let me set some context first:

In the 2007 draft, I was in the majority at the time who rated Oden ahead of Kevin Durant, and I've never thought Brandon Roy was as good of a prospect as Durant. So, back then, this was Oden easily for me.

Now, I find myself thinking it's Roy over Oden.

So what's changed here:

1. Back then, despite the fact that I was an early advocate for what the Suns were doing with pace & space, and didn't think they should go away from it, I still largely bought into the idea that a traditional 2-way big man was the most sought after type of prospect. You get a guy who seems like the closest thing we've seen to Shaq & Duncan since Shaq & Duncan, that's who you pick unless you've got someone who just seems like an ultra-outlier like LeBron, and even then, it's debatable.

2. Now I see the ability to hit 3's to be something close to a requirement, and I see traditional big men as problematic against spacing on defense, and so that just diminishes all of these types of projects, even Shaq & Duncan.

Does that mean that I see all of these guys as inferior prospects to Roy? Well, not quite, there's also:

3. I had grown quite concerned about Oden's fouling tendency even before I'd given up on his career due to injuries. In a nutshell, this isn't something every big has issues with, and it's not something that should be seen as "something he'll outgrow" unless he becomes considerably less aggressive.

Further, while I can point to a contemporary example of a big with major fouling issues that limit his minutes in JJJ, JJJ is also a considerably more mobile big than Oden was capable of threatening shots out to the arc. He's so good at what he does he can win the DPOY even with this issue, and with his mobility he'll likely be able to defend to solid range even if he's forced to get a bit less aggressive with age. Oden by contrast was more of a classic rim-protector. He doesn't have the same ceiling in general, and I think would be more affected if aging forced him to really stay more in one place.

To finish I'll say something that's just a harsh truth:

Oden was in the same draft class as Al Horford.

If everything goes perfectly for Oden health-wise, he's probably still long retired by this point while Horford remains valuable on both ends of the floor. This then to say, I really don't think it's a given that a healthy Oden ends up with a better career than Horford.

Doctor MJ wrote:

SHAQ32 wrote:Imagine neither has injuries. Who had the higher ceiling?

It's a great question. Let me set some context first:

In the 2007 draft, I was in the majority at the time who rated Oden ahead of Kevin Durant, and I've never thought Brandon Roy was as good of a prospect as Durant. So, back then, this was Oden easily for me.

Now, I find myself thinking it's Roy over Oden.

So what's changed here:

1. Back then, despite the fact that I was an early advocate for what the Suns were doing with pace & space, and didn't think they should go away from it, I still largely bought into the idea that a traditional 2-way big man was the most sought after type of prospect. You get a guy who seems like the closest thing we've seen to Shaq & Duncan since Shaq & Duncan, that's who you pick unless you've got someone who just seems like an ultra-outlier like LeBron, and even then, it's debatable.

2. Now I see the ability to hit 3's to be something close to a requirement, and I see traditional big men as problematic against spacing on defense, and so that just diminishes all of these types of projects, even Shaq & Duncan.

Does that mean that I see all of these guys as inferior prospects to Roy? Well, not quite, there's also:

3. I had grown quite concerned about Oden's fouling tendency even before I'd given up on his career due to injuries. In a nutshell, this isn't something every big has issues with, and it's not something that should be seen as "something he'll outgrow" unless he becomes considerably less aggressive.

Further, while I can point to a contemporary example of a big with major fouling issues that limit his minutes in JJJ, JJJ is also a considerably more mobile big than Oden was capable of threatening shots out to the arc. He's so good at what he does he can win the DPOY even with this issue, and with his mobility he'll likely be able to defend to solid range even if he's forced to get a bit less aggressive with age. Oden by contrast was more of a classic rim-protector. He doesn't have the same ceiling in general, and I think would be more affected if aging forced him to really stay more in one place.

To finish I'll say something that's just a harsh truth:

Oden was in the same draft class as Al Horford.

If everything goes perfectly for Oden health-wise, he's probably still long retired by this point while Horford remains valuable on both ends of the floor. This then to say, I really don't think it's a given that a healthy Oden ends up with a better career than Horford.

Great post, although I think eventually the right big will come along, dominate in a more traditional manner, and change the way we view optimizing offense again.

SHAQ32 wrote:

Doctor MJ wrote:

SHAQ32 wrote:Imagine neither has injuries. Who had the higher ceiling?

It's a great question. Let me set some context first:

In the 2007 draft, I was in the majority at the time who rated Oden ahead of Kevin Durant, and I've never thought Brandon Roy was as good of a prospect as Durant. So, back then, this was Oden easily for me.

Now, I find myself thinking it's Roy over Oden.

So what's changed here:

1. Back then, despite the fact that I was an early advocate for what the Suns were doing with pace & space, and didn't think they should go away from it, I still largely bought into the idea that a traditional 2-way big man was the most sought after type of prospect. You get a guy who seems like the closest thing we've seen to Shaq & Duncan since Shaq & Duncan, that's who you pick unless you've got someone who just seems like an ultra-outlier like LeBron, and even then, it's debatable.

2. Now I see the ability to hit 3's to be something close to a requirement, and I see traditional big men as problematic against spacing on defense, and so that just diminishes all of these types of projects, even Shaq & Duncan.

Does that mean that I see all of these guys as inferior prospects to Roy? Well, not quite, there's also:

3. I had grown quite concerned about Oden's fouling tendency even before I'd given up on his career due to injuries. In a nutshell, this isn't something every big has issues with, and it's not something that should be seen as "something he'll outgrow" unless he becomes considerably less aggressive.

Further, while I can point to a contemporary example of a big with major fouling issues that limit his minutes in JJJ, JJJ is also a considerably more mobile big than Oden was capable of threatening shots out to the arc. He's so good at what he does he can win the DPOY even with this issue, and with his mobility he'll likely be able to defend to solid range even if he's forced to get a bit less aggressive with age. Oden by contrast was more of a classic rim-protector. He doesn't have the same ceiling in general, and I think would be more affected if aging forced him to really stay more in one place.

To finish I'll say something that's just a harsh truth:

Oden was in the same draft class as Al Horford.

If everything goes perfectly for Oden health-wise, he's probably still long retired by this point while Horford remains valuable on both ends of the floor. This then to say, I really don't think it's a given that a healthy Oden ends up with a better career than Horford.

Great post, although I think eventually the right big will come along, dominate in a more traditional manner, and change the way we view optimizing offense again.

Well, I think Jokic kinda shows us the rub there. He can volume score like a classic big...but when he does so and his teammates are hitting 3's, there's a limit to what you can get relative to opponents. I don't think a big has to be as good at passing as Jokic, but I think passing will be an absolutely critical component to any dominant big going forward.

I was as big an Oden stan as anybody and will take Oden over Durant to my grave, but this is Roy. Every step of the way, his ceiling was questioned, and he just kept getting better. It's forgotten now, but in his last month before The Beginning of the End, December/January 2009-2010, he had adapted to playing off Andre Miller and seemed to unlock yet another level as a scorer: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/roybr01/gamelog/2010#235-248-sum:pgl_basic. And remember, this is on the slowest-paced team in a slower-paced era, starting Juwan Howard at emergency center after Oden and Przybilla's knees fell apart. While Roy was probably in constant pain himself.

Oden, for his part, had the incredible physical gifts -- well, other than knees -- but showed a somewhat shallower development curve than I think was expected of him. He couldn't out-quick or overpower NBA centers to the same extend he did in high school and college, of course, and we never got to see whether the skills would catch all the way up. He was already good, we know, but far from great. Since we didn't see the massive improvement that accompanies a legend's ascent to greatness, I don't think it can be assumed he had it in him.