AEnigma wrote:That “loaded team” went 1-5 without Barkley. Majerle was a good player (although far from a true star) who played 3200 minutes, but the rest of the core was an old and declined Danny Ainge (2163 minutes), an old and declined Tom Chambers (1723 minutes), an injured Kevin Johnson (1643 minutes), a young Cedric Ceballos (1607 minutes — misses the Finals), a “rookie” Richard Dumas in between drug suspensions (1320 minutes), and the uninspiring centre rotation of Mark West (1558 minutes) and injured rookie Oliver Miller (1069 minutes).
That “loaded team” is precisely why Barkley looked like the most valuable player in the league.

While I agree "loaded team" overstates things (at least with the KJ injury circumstance: not only missed 33 games, but was below his '92 standard when he was around), I think implying "1-5 without Barkley" is equally misleading regarding the quality of his supporting cast. EDIT: I see you've clarified that this wasn't necessarily the implication [post #13]; but I'd nonetheless already written the following....
1-5, extrapolated for an 82-game season comes to 13 to 14 wins: would have been the 2nd-worst record in the league that year [comfortably behind the 3rd-worst, too]. They clearly weren't THAT weak without Barkley, and this is reflected in looking more closely at those six games. Four or five of the six games were played against actual decent teams [more details below], and KJ was also absent for two of them as well [Tom Chambers for one, too, fwiw]. And only one of the five losses by double-digits.
That's perhaps not a bad showing, under the circumstances.
Their SRS in the six games Barkley missed, fwiw, was -2.50. Still poor, but far better than "1-5" suggests. The vacuum expectation in six games with -2.50 SRS would be at least a 2-4 record (probably about 2.3 to 2.5 wins being the avg expectation).
They were a -3.97 SRS in the two games without KJ [counting HCA as being worth 3], and -1.77 with him, btw.
That's the broad-strokes summary, but let's look at each sans-Barkley game individually to see what reasonable expectation would/should be:
1) Played on the road against a full-strength Cleveland team that was 54-28 on the year with a +6.30 SRS [2nd in league]. Obviously there's relatively little expectation for the Suns to win without Barkley. They only lost by 4 pts, which if anything probably exceeds expectations.
2) Played on the road against a nearly full-strength [missing only Stanley Roberts, for whatever that's worth] Clippers team that was 41-41 with +0.33 SRS, while not only missing Barkley, but
also being absent Kevin Johnson and Tom Chambers.
We can quibble about the betting margin, but I would say the smart money is on the Clippers for this game.
Suns lost by a respectable 7-pt margin.
3) Suns play at home against an awful (19-63, -7.62 SRS) Timberwolves team. They should be able to beat this team, even without Barkley; and they
do by a comfortable 14-pt margin.
4) Played at home against a full-strength elite Seattle team (55-27, +6.66 SRS [1st in league]). Without Barkley, I don't think it impugns his Suns supporting cast to say they're the underdog in this, even at home and with KJ.
They lose, though make a good fight losing by just 6 pts.
5) Played on the road against a full-strength fairly good Jazz team (47-35, +1.74 SRS),
without Kevin Johnson.
Clearly the expectation is to lose, which they did by 9 pts.
6) Played at home against a full-strength very good Rockets team (55-27, +3.57 SRS). Worth noting that they played their starters relatively small minutes in this one. Not sure if it was more because they got down big early (and thus gave up and sat them in the fourth), or if that was the plan all along (because they had already secured HCA throughout the playoffs).
At any rate, they lose by 14 pts.
imo, the final two games of that stretch are the ONLY ones in which they under-acheived. NOT that reasonable expectation should be that they actually
win either of those games.......but expectation might be that they could have made them closer, losing by perhaps 4-8 fewer points in each (not that it changes their record, but doing so would have brought their SRS over these six games up to near-neutral).
The other four games, I assess that they more or less met
or slightly exceeded reasonable expectation in the other four games.
And if I had to predict a record they would come out with [knowing which games KJ would be absent for], I would have predicted 1-5.