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RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #1 (LeBron James)

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RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #1 (LeBron James) 

Post#1 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Jul 1, 2023 3:27 pm

Here we go!!! :D

1. In this thread you are to vote for your GOAT, and you also get a second vote to give you a say if your GOAT isn't one of the top 2 candidates.

2. Post as much as they want, but when you do your official Vote make it really clear to me at the top of that post that that post is your Vote. And if you decide to change your vote before the votes are tallied, please edit that same Vote post.

3. You must include reasoning in your Vote post. You don't have to re-state everything you've already said, but there should be something there for people to learn from.

4. Anyone may post thoughts, but please only make a Vote post if you're on the Voter list. If you'd like to be added to the project, please ask in the General Thread for the project.

5. I'll tally the votes when I wake up the morning after the Deadline (I don't care if you change things after the official Deadline, but once I tally, it's over). For this specific Vote, if people ask before the Deadline, I'll extend it.

Here's the list of the Voter Pool as it stands right now:

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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #1 (Deadline: July 3rd 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#2 » by Ambrose » Sat Jul 1, 2023 4:05 pm

Going into this mostly open to LeBron, Jordan, Kareem and Russell. I'm leaning LeBron right now. Why might I be wrong?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #1 (Deadline: July 3rd 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#3 » by falcolombardi » Sat Jul 1, 2023 4:45 pm

1-lebron james
2-kareem abdul jabbar

Tldr: will try to expand when i have more time

Lebron is the one player who checks absolutely all the possible boxes. Goat tier offense player with a fairly great defensive impact which i think he is alone at among offensive first stars (i have jordan below on both ends, but fairly lower on D). I think the only other players who were truly goat tier on one end amd elite on the other end are bigs (kareem, wilt, duncan, hakeem) . He proved this by leading teams to offensive trascendence while providing real lift on the defensive end. Imo the only goat offense player who was a near or all timer on defense thanks to his help defense and size, as guards usually are too small or spend too much energy on offemse to truly move a team on that end the way players like 2009 or 2016 lebron did

Is more or less the unarguable goat "floor raiser" a incresibly that sometimes feels held against him

and is a goat "ceiling raiser" too despite the imo baffling belif on the opposite. as he is able to improve a team in multiple ways (defense, scoring creation) and positions while leading a top 3 team offese run ever (alongside magic and nash here) we dont talk enough about the lbj/love/kyrie cavs having better offense results than curry/durant/klay warriors

He has goat tier longevity and dominamce over a long period of time only really matched by kareem and maybe wilt/russel when adjusted for era.

Did all this across essentially 3 very different leagues from youth to twilight age
adapted by necessity to completelt different roles across his career despite this somehow being held against him

Has an overall (imo) unmatched impact/plus-minus "resume" in the data ball era when considering every possible angle one could look at.

Tldr: goat offense player~ who led a goat levell offensive run, + unprecedented defensive lift in a perimeter first option + goat-ish longevity + goat floor raising + goat tier ceilign raising + did it all in multiple eras from the mpst high flying offense ones to the grittier dead ball era being proven in both modern and older style basketball

2-kareem. Was head and shoulders above his competition for a decade, unmatched longevity past his peak, led goat ceiling teams (71 -and- 72 bucks) and was a tremendous floor raiser too.

His skillser was one of the most playoffs resilient ever up there with peak duncam, hakeem, lebron, kobe, etc

One weakness compared to lebron is the lack of full impact data to "confirm" the impact om the eye test amd the fact he played in a less developed league
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #1 (Deadline: July 3rd 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#4 » by AEnigma » Sat Jul 1, 2023 4:57 pm

As I have said before, my top three is cemented as Lebron, Kareem, and Russell.

For this vote, my top pick will be going to Lebron. I am sympathetic to the other two, but I give him an edge over Russell for having such a substantial advantage in time played and for more obviously translating across time. Absolutely no one dominated their own league like Russell did, and I am fine with people making that a permanent stance… but it does need to be a permanent stance, because no one will ever dominate the league to that extent again. You look at other leagues… Henri Richard had 11, although not all as the best player. Yogi Burrell had 10, and again not all as the best player. Russell was 11/13, and coming off two NCAA titles, and was the best player on his team for every one of them (as is disproportionately the case in basketball). He is the greatest individual winner in team sports, and he always will be. Personally, I prefer an evolving standard, but I respect those who commit to enshrining him as the permanent GOAT.

Kareem is a more direct comparison for Lebron. Both were generational prospects (I see them as the two best ever) immediately marked as likely GOAT contenders to the extent that almost anything short of that would qualify as a disappointment… and neither really disappointed that standard. Both thoroughly dominated a for over a decade even if for team reasons that did not always translate to titles. Both were top players on four title teams (for self-evident reasons I see the 1987 and 1988 championships as less relevant to Kareem’s legacy, but they are nice bonuses all the same). Both had effectively unprecedented longevity, and it is still a debate which of them has been better into their late 30s (although I expect Lebron can start gaining separation if he has a healthy season next year). Lebron has the overall more productive NBA career, but I acknowledge that Kareem was almost certainly better as an NCAA talent locked out of the NBA than Lebron was as an NBA player immediately out of high school. They read as broadly comparable in 22-turning-23 seasons through their 26-turning-27 seasons. However, I think Lebron probably gains some separation starting with what was his 2013 season compared to Kareem’s 1975 season, and while Kareem keeps pace, I am not sure he ever managed to make up much ground until it was too late.

From the angle that bigs have a strong innate advantage over perimetre players, I could see putting both Russell and Kareem ahead of Lebron. Still, I think Lebron is a massive outlier as a perimetre player. He has created more points for his teams than any player ever has, by a cavernous margin, and he has similarly accumulated far more defensive value than any other non-big. And of course this is all helped by being a perimetre player who is close to the same size as some bigs (Karl Malone always the easy physical comparison). He does not have the latent defensive impact of centres, but as the most valuable offensive player ever (in totality), I think the defensive impact he has exerted can bridge the gap.

Lebron has been the best player on his team for nineteen or twenty seasons, which is absolutely unparalleled. Even if you only look at the standard of “best player on a top eight team,” only Tim Duncan can potentially compete with him. Lebron has been my personal pick for league’s best player ten times, on par with Russell (~eleven but with uncertainty in 1958, 1962, 1964, 1966, and 1968) and Kareem (nine to thirteen depending on how we feel about 1970, 1977, 1981, and 1982). He narrowly trails Russell in career RealGM Player of the Year shares, which seems appropriate.

Lebron is the all-time leader in MVP shares. He is tied for most all-star appearances (almost certain to be sole holder next season), with the clear most as starter. He has the clear most all-NBA selections and all-NBA first team selections (and he would have the most even if forwards only had one spot), as well as the most combined first and second team selections. He has led all-NBA voting the most times (nine). He has led all-star voting the most times (ten), which I mention not as a “win” over Kareem or Russell but more because it is an interesting advantage over other similarly or more popular players. For as much as those can be attributed to “longevity”, he is also securely the most valuable APM player of the databall era by basically any measure, with few indications that the other perimetre player in this competition could push him.

He has been the best player on title teams for three separate franchises, with three separate coaches and three distinct rosters. In the postseason, he leads everyone in:
    - wins
    - road wins
    - series wins
    - road series wins
    - series wins as an SRS underdog
    - games played
    - minutes played
    - points
He is as of this post top twelve in playoff appearances outright (Stockton/Malone at 19, Duncan/Kareem at 18, and Shaq/Kidd/Parker at 17). He has the second highest playoff road win percentage among anyone in the consensus top twelve (Magic). He has the third highest playoff win percentage among anyone in the consensus top twelve (Magic and Jordan). He has the most consecutive series with a road playoff win. He has the second best road series win percentage, with five times the sample as Russell’s 3-1 record.

He has led six top 50 relative playoff teams (four titles plus 2009 and 2017), which is the same number as Jordan — and he had a better on-court and on/off rating than Jordan did across those respective six teams, despite false claims about his inability to lead teams to similar ceilings. He is tied for the third most conference finals (behind Kareem and Russell), and he is tied with Kareem for second most finals (with three of Kareem’s coming as a tertiary figure).

I see him as the player with the top career, top prime, top title peak, top runner-up peak, top conference finalist peak… This is just Lebron for me, and outside of ring-counting I do not see a real case for any other non-big. Others will make more of a data-focused case, and for posterity I encourage them to do so, but to an extent that preaches to the choir (so to speak) because anyone disagreeing is not genuinely interested in the cold data to any sufficiently significant extent. And because Kareem and Russell are the two I see as his true rivals in career status, I am more interested in taking approaches that to some extent give them equivalent points of comparison.

My alternate vote will go to whichever of Russell or Kareem seems to be gaining more traction, specifically looking ahead to next vote. I have never managed to decide which of the two I back over the other, and that will be more of my personal focus in this thread and the next. And the starting point for that will be: how does 1970-82 Kareem compare to 1957-69 Russell?

VOTE: Lebron James
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #1 (Deadline: July 3rd 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#5 » by DQuinn1575 » Sat Jul 1, 2023 4:57 pm

falcolombardi wrote:
Has an overall (imo) unmatched impact/plus-minus "resume" in the data ball era when considering every possible angle one could look at.

......

One weakness compared to lebron is the lack of full impact data to "confirm" the impact om the eye test amd the fact he played in a less developed league


You're rewarding LeBron and downgrading Kareem (and others) due to the amount of information available.
Just doesn't seem fair to rank one player better than another partly due to the amount of information available.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #1 (Deadline: July 3rd 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#6 » by AEnigma » Sat Jul 1, 2023 5:05 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:Has an overall (imo) unmatched impact/plus-minus "resume" in the data ball era when considering every possible angle one could look at.

......

One weakness compared to lebron is the lack of full impact data to "confirm" the impact om the eye test amd the fact he played in a less developed league

You're rewarding LeBron and downgrading Kareem (and others) due to the amount of information available.
Just doesn't seem fair to rank one player better than another partly due to the amount of information available.

Lebron plays in a better league and comfortably surpasses Kareem even when you use equivalent impact signals based on how teams perform with and without them in the lineup, and the only real argument against that relies on centre replacements being conceivably more valuable than “Lebron” replacements. Which is fine, but it is not an argument in itself for Kareem, and it is correct to mark Lebron as having a more substantial “impact” case.
MyUniBroDavis wrote:Some people are clearly far too overreliant on data without context and look at good all in one or impact numbers and get wowed by that rather than looking at how a roster is actually built around a player
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #1 (Deadline: July 3rd 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#7 » by Dr Positivity » Sat Jul 1, 2023 5:59 pm

I think I've had Lebron #1 all time for like 4-5 years so for me this one is pretty straight forward.

- Blasts some players like MJ and Russell in longevity, small advantage over Kareem
- Was hands down the #1 player of his era which is something only a few players like Mikan, Kareem, Jordan can say. I value modern era over older eras when all else is equal.
- Excellent playoff career
- Versatile impact as a scorer, passer, defender. He succeeded with Wade's overlap skillset, Kyrie needing to dribble the ball a lot, and on a relative low spacing Lakers team, and has carried role player squads.

Vote #1: Lebron James

#2: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - I don't think runner up vote will be relevant this round and I haven't fully decided, so I'll just throw him on here for now.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #1 (Deadline: July 3rd 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#8 » by lessthanjake » Sat Jul 1, 2023 6:31 pm

1. Michael Jordan
2. LeBron James

I don’t really think you can go wrong with either of these two, but I’ve got a slight preference for Jordan.

Other people might vote for others beyond these two of course (particularly Kareem), but I’ll direct my explanation to why I chose MJ over LeBron, since I see them as the top two candidates for the #1 spot.

To me, the biggest thing that makes me go with Jordan is that I just think he was a better ceiling raiser. In their heyday in the 1990’s, the Bulls were shockingly dominant. They put up 72, 69, and 67 win seasons. Only 13 teams have ever won 67+ games in a season, and Jordan’s Bulls did it three times (with the 2015-2017 Warriors being the only other team to do it more than once). Relatedly, 3 of those Bulls teams had an SRS above 10. This is something that only 9 teams in history have done (it’s just Jordan’s Bulls three times, the Warriors three times, a couple Kareem Bucks years, and the 2016 Spurs). Jordan’s Bulls also had playoff runs where they lost only 2 games, 3 games, 4 games, and 4 games. In the era since there started being 4 rounds in the playoffs (so, 1984 onwards—the last 40 years), 14 championship teams have lost 4 or fewer playoff games. Jordan’s Bulls are four of those teams. A few dynasties had two (the Duncan Spurs, Shaq/Kobe Lakers, and Showtime Lakers). And, for the Bulls, these included included playoff runs where they outscored opponents by an enormous 13.2 points per 100 possessions and 12.1 points per 100 possessions. The combination of regular season and postseason dominance that we saw from Jordan’s Bulls is unprecedented.

And it’s definitely unprecedented as compared to LeBron’s teams. LeBron was never on a team that won 67+ games in a season. He was never on a team that had an SRS above 10. In fact, the highest SRS team he ever had was 8.68, and his teams were only even above 7 SRS twice. The highest SRS team LeBron had in a year he went to the finals (the 2013 Heat) was lower than the Bulls’ SRS in the last dance year where Scottie only played half the season! His team never really steamrolled the playoffs—LeBron’s title winning teams lost 7 games, 7 games, 5 games,and 5 games in the playoffs.

I think it is fair to say that LeBron’s teams never were even particularly close to the heights of dominance that Jordan’s teams reached. And, aside from the first Cavs stint, this isn’t for lack of playing on really talented teams. LeBron’s Heat, second-stint Cavs, and Lakers teams have been really talented. The Heat in particular were unbelievably talented—so talented that LeBron himself thought they’d just waltz to countless titles. Part of that not happening was Wade eventually breaking down, but they simply weren’t very dominant even before that. They only had one 60-win season together. Their SRS averaged 5.92 in those years. And they won two titles in four years, with multiple game 7’s in those two title-winning years. They were a great team, but they struggled, despite all the talent. Meanwhile, as explained above, Jordan’s Bulls were very dominant for a long stretch. They had multiple years where they really didn’t struggle.

And I simply don’t see this as being caused by the Bulls being more talented. Indeed, I don’t actually see those Bulls as being more talented than many of LeBron’s teams. It’s clear that they were a good team without Jordan—since they did well during his first retirement (though the 55 wins in 1994 obscures that the SRS wasn’t nearly as good). Pippen was great, of course, but LeBron has had one or two similarly good teammates. And then you’re looking at guys like Horace Grant (and later Rodman) and role players. The Bulls were a really good team, of course, and were well coached, but I don’t think one can fairly say that they’d look at the names of the supporting players on Jordan’s Bulls teams and the names of the supporting players on some of LeBron’s teams and fairly conclude that Jordan’s Bulls team would be substantially more dominant.

So the conclusion I draw from all this is that Jordan was a notably better ceiling raiser than LeBron. When they both were on really good teams, Jordan made his team into a historically dominant powerhouse, while LeBron’s teams were not dominant and still struggled a good deal. And I think this is actually not surprising, when we realize that LeBron’s style of play is so ball-dominant that it genuinely does make it harder for other great players to be maximized on a team with him. Jordan liked the ball too, but his style really was nowhere near as ball dominant—with a lot more getting shots within the rhythm of the offense (especially with the triangle, but even before that too).

Of course, the flip side of this is that I think there’s substantial evidence that LeBron is a better floor raiser. LeBron won 66 and 61 games with Cavaliers teams that really were not very talented, while Jordan was unable to have that kind of success on untalented teams early in his career. Again, that makes sense. A more ball-dominant strategy may be bad for ceiling raising, but it’s good for floor raising, because it ensures a great player can basically minimize their bad teammates’ influence. But I weigh ceiling raising much more highly than floor raising. Ultimately, the NBA is about winning titles, and those titles are overwhelmingly won by teams with a really good supporting cast around their star. So I’d rather have a guy who will make me dominant if I put a really good team around them over a guy who won’t ever make me dominant but would make me borderline competitive in more situations but probably not win titles in those situations anyways. LeBron’s notably better longevity claws back some of Jordan’s advantage here, but it’s not quite enough for me.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #1 (Deadline: July 3rd 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#9 » by eminence » Sat Jul 1, 2023 6:48 pm

I'll be voting for LeBron #1 in a later official post, using this one to talk through some of my thoughts on #2.

I see 3 main candidates - Russell, Kareem, and Duncan. Brief points for and against each (relative to other top 10 type guys):

Russell
+Won like nobody but Mikan
+Longevity is good, missing a few tacked on lower level years that modern players have, but his 13 year career compares nicely to any other players best 13 years
+Great defensive team results
-Played with a very strong supporting squad throughout his career
-Some reasons to doubt his early career years being super high impact

Kareem
+Very strong longevity
+Played on some ATG teams, Bucks w/Oscar and then the Showtime Lakers
-I'm underwhelmed by his floor raising work from '75-'79, not title worthy casts by any means, but also not all-time poor casts to my eye

Duncan
+Another elite longevity guy
+Along with Russell rightfully earns respect as an all-time culture setter
+Spurs were basically a modern version of Mikans Lakers or Russells Celtics, titles are simply harder to come by these days
+Great defensive team results
-Also somewhat similarly to Russell played with a ton of great support through his career
-His last ~6 years was certainly still good impact, but below the best, and used somewhat uniquely in a way likely favorable to his longevity
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #1 (Deadline: July 3rd 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#10 » by ShaqAttac » Sat Jul 1, 2023 7:00 pm

Eni cookin, but ill try and do my best. I aint ever write this muuch but imma try to format proper like ppl tell me too.

I know we aint votin on em all, but imma list the 6 players who i think should get noms first

1 Russ, will say more down under
2 Mikan, will say more down under
3 Bron, Nukes every1 but russ n cap in "Impact", crazy longetvity, plays in way better league, apm goes craaazy
4 Cap, Crazzy longetvity, also better in "impact" for his peak than every1 but bron n russ from what im seein, was awesome before he even entereed nba
5. Timmy D, always on a good team, all-time carry job in 03, all-time leadeer who took paycuts to help antonio win, n honestly, was prob the best player of the 2000's, I thought shaq was 1 but i cant argue with da facts.
6. Dream, I know its crazy soundin, but I think he got a good arg here from what im seein. same rs impaact, n went nova in the pos. Eni n KD make really goood points so ill let em d up. basically tho his "impact' In rs is comp and he gets way better in the yoffs. He also carried meh help to b2b chips while MJ literallly only won with an uberduper superteam. Unless im missin sumthn MJ would be the only nom whose never won without a deathsquad.


VOTE BILL RUSSELL
this is p easy. He won 11 rings as the best player by faar and was so good ppl been strugglin hard to come up with any kinda arg against the season when he was bout to retire. Man literally crusshes superteams with bad help n was also the coach. He also was facin craazy comp
ut this doesn't mean anything of itself. For the KD parallel to work, the Celtics need to be great(relative to the comp) without Russell. Nothing suggests this is true beyond the Celtics first few titles(i listed the different stuff in my previous post). Crucially everything we have suggests the opposite was true in 1969, and here the competition is far better than "not weak".

Assuming you are not trying to break era-relativity, here are 3-ways we can look at opposition strength
1. Look at how the teams look relative to the league for the era(bullets and knicks are outliers by srs, Lakers are close)
2. Look at how the comp was relative to the league that season(Celtics beat the best, 2nd best and 4th best opponent they could have had by SRS)
3. Look at how the comp was in surrounding seasons(Knicks SRS doubles en-route to a championship the following year, Bullets and Lakers srs drops but they take the Knicks to 7 and LA win a championship and make 3 finals)

By any of these approaches the Celtics faced an all-time difficult gauntlet and there is absolutely nothing to suggest the Celtics were some stacked super-squad. "Competition" is not a serious argument here. Bill went through just about the hardest possible route, with weak support, in a year where the best teams were unusually good. Not sure how that doesn't get him to a tier 1(era-relative) peak unless you arbitrarily decide to curve 1969 down to what feels reasonable without scaling the other title-winning years up.


Idrg how u can arg against a guy who won way more than every1 and also won with less help. Team went bitw to bad without him when he was supposed to be waashed. If you got him low coz the league sucked i get you. But ppl sayin they era-relative and not havin russ 1 is cap. He only ever lost when hurt and he stay winnin even when his teammates sucked facin the death-star. Ez 1 for me.

I wanna vote MIKAN for 2 but imma keep my vote in case i need to use it for bron.

This is also p simple. He was waay better than everyone else in a waay no one else was, was the best on o and d, and won 7 rings.
DoctorMJ wrote:George Mikan (1924) "Mr. Basketball", 6'10" center, the first true big man, 7 total pro titles with Chicago Gears & Lakers

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Origin: Illinois
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Series Wins: 23
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Star-Prime: 8 seasons
POY wins: 8, POY shares: 8.0
OPOY wins: 3, OPOY shares: 3.8
DPOY wins: 6, DPOY shares: 6.2


The obvious top player from the era so maybe not a ton to be gleaned from going into further detail, but some observations:

- Mikan appears to have been the best offensive player in pro basketball basically from the time he turned pro. Eventually others arrive in the league to top him, but he remains elite until the rule change of 1951 that widened the key from 6 to 12 feet specifically to stop him. From that point onward, while Mikan likely remained the best rebounder in the world, it seems that the rule change did have the desired effect.

- Mikan almost certainly would have been an even more impactful defender from the jump if not for the banning of goaltending. As it was, it seems like it took Mikan some time to re-optimize his defensive play. He had a recurring issue of foul trouble that was often the Achilles heel for his teams win the lost.

- So far as I can tell, Mikan's defensive dominance in the NBA was less about shotblocking and more about rebounding. Certainly the shotblocking threat was there to a degree, but in a league with such weak shooting percentage, rebounding was arguably king.

ik we dont got data, but he won the 2nd most and he was way better than every1 else. Seems like a simple 2 to me.

Hope that was good!
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #1 (Deadline: July 3rd 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#11 » by One_and_Done » Sat Jul 1, 2023 7:00 pm

For me this is pretty simple. It's Lebron. It would have been Lebron 5 years ago to me probably.

He has the highest peak, the best prime and the most longevity (insane longevity). He's also adaptable across all eras.

Others above have already articulated the reasons in depth so I won't get too deep into it. This is just an easy vote for me. Lebron has no weaknesses, and the range of abilities other candidates lack. Kareem, Duncan and Jordan, my other 3 candidates for the top 4, all have some things you can gameplan for. Lebron really does not. You have to basically use him wrong to fail, like 2011. Once the Heat figured out how to play optimally the next year it was all over. Lebron raises your floor, and breaks your ceiling, better than any other player.

Number 2 is tougher. I could see a case for Kareem, Jordan or Duncan. I'll vote Kareem for now, as I think time and perspective have let the Jordan nostalgia wear off. Jordan in the modern game would likely not be seem as any sort of GOAT, but the weaker era he played in and the near perfect narrative his career created led to a marketing drive to call him the GOAT. Could MJ carry a team to a Duncan Spurs like run of 19 years with a win percentage that is 58+ wins a game every year? I have my doubts. Kareem's numbers have always been GOATish, but he was surly and lacked a narrative. Pace adjusted, or per 100 possessions, Duncan compares quite favourably to him. I also think you could argue Duncan's peak in 02 or 03 surpassed anything Kareem did. Duncan also has a good length prime from 98 to 07. You can build a whole defence around Duncan in a way you can't the other 2, he's arguably the defensive GOAT.

I'm open to reconsidering my 2nd place vote, but for now I'm voting:
1. Lebron

2. Kareem

Probably Duncan then Jordan next.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #1 (Deadline: July 3rd 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#12 » by Dooley » Sat Jul 1, 2023 7:02 pm

My view is that MJ and Lebron are really the two contenders for GOAT. They are far and away the best perimeter offensive engines. The sheer volume of scoring and creation they provide with the ball in their hands puts them above any other candidates.

Both of them also tick all the other boxes you'd want to check: crazy statistical impact; strong all-around game with no real glaring weaknesses or problems; piles of accolades and awards; long and consistent records of leading their teams on deep playoff runs; clear best player in the league for large portions of their careers; each considered as a GOAT by large numbers of observers. So it's those two at the top and no one else for me.

Between the two, in the past, I've generally considered Jordan as the GOAT because I think his peak was slightly higher than Lebron's. I think Jordan is clear #1 pure perimeter scorer all time, based on the combination of volume and efficiency that he had. There have been very few other players who have come close to the scoring volume Jordan was able to maintain in his prime, and basically none who have been able to do so while maintaining decent efficiency, and even doing it within the rhythm of a team-based movement offense with the triangle and creating with passing as well as with scoring and being able to score in a variety of ways.

So Jordan's offensive record in the playoffs is really impressive to me. And IMO there's an argument that the combination of #1 all time scoring volume, scoring efficiency and resiliency is just so uniquely valuable in the playoffs that Jordan is #1 all time. If Jordan is the #1 playoff scorer by a clear margin, I think you can say the value of that unique level of scoring resiliency and load in the playoffs is so high that you'd just rather have Jordan over anyone else all-time.

At the same time, it's clear that Lebron has a huge advantage in longevity. And while he's not quite the scorer that Jordan was, he's still an unbelievable offensive centerpiece in the playoffs. Lebron was the clear best player in a very talented and deep league for over a decade - he's a basketball monster. I've generally leaned a little more on the prime-peak side than the longevity side but Lebron is truly ridiculous. If Jordan isn't #1, then Lebron certainly is. It comes down to, is Jordan's peak as a scorer as high as I think it is? And at what point does Lebron's longevity tip the scales?

So, no vote for now, gonna continue thinking about it, but those are my initial thoughts on this vote. I also have various thoughts about some of the big man candidates but will save that for another post or maybe a later thread.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #1 (Deadline: July 3rd 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#13 » by LukaTheGOAT » Sat Jul 1, 2023 7:08 pm

This thread right here is my NBA Finals for the off-season.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #1 (Deadline: July 3rd 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#14 » by rk2023 » Sat Jul 1, 2023 8:02 pm

1. LeBron James

Vote for First
In alignment with the ‘nomination system’ and just as much with past voting history, there are four out of the six names I personally have as tangible “GOAT” candidates to not much surprise: Russell, Abdul-Jabbar, Jordan, James - listed in chronological order. Out of the four, I believe James to have the strongest argument with criteria-points that I have mentioned in prior threads (eg. situational impact, championship equity, emphasis on PS translation & inelasticity, with Prime Value and Quality [meaningful longevity] > Peak > Additive Longevity).

Twenty years in and counting, I believe James to have accrued the most career value with substantial arguments, at minimum, for the top “prime-value” [09-18] and peak in NBA History. The further/longer the definition of prime goes, the stronger the argument gets for James. While I believe him to have the best additive value - along with Kareem in a 1a/1b sense - I believe James takes the cake when it comes to meaningful longevity. Regarding the latter-most: At the ‘Strong-MVP’ level or higher (using the player-value classification cited by Ben, 70sFan, Eminence, & others), I believe James’ distribution of seasons is as follows. GOAT-Level: 09/12/13, Fringe-GOAT: 10/16, All-Time: 14/17/18/20, Fringe-All-Time: 11, MVP: 08/15. That’s a 13 year span of high-quality play further supported by All-NBA - Weak MVP levels of play from 05-07 and 19, 21-23. I don’t think the 13 year gap in MVP levels of play has been replicated by anybody - with Wilt and Russell perhaps serving as exceptions.

What exactly has enabled James to put together a body of work to this stature? In Layman's terms, I don't think any other player has checked more boxes in terms of adding value through macro basketball abilities (eg. scoring, playmaking, defense) - making him the best floor raiser of all time imo. With what I'm alluding to, I came across an intriguing post from drza - linked below - which I think hits the nail on the head in regards to the value/impact of a GOAT-level offensive centerpiece with DPOY-lite impact at different times. When comparing to the two most similar players from a "do-it-all" standpoint (aiming at a prime sample), I find the gap in offense to be the trump-card between James and Kareem and the gap in defense to be the trump-card between James and Jordan.

Spoiler:
drza wrote:Some thoughts on LeBron and Michael.

I've already written some thoughts about Russell, and I've got some things I'm hoping to work through about some of the other players I consider worthy of the top tier. But realistically, this thread is going to come down to LeBron vs MJ. And after this thread ends tomorrow, there'll be no point in such a comparison moving forward. So, I'll focus my last pre-vote discussion, as well as my vote itself, around LeBron and Jordan to bookend my Russell posts. Some quick thoughts.

I tend to think of Jordan and LeBron as either two extremes of the same archetype(the dominant perimeter offense creator/two-way wing) or leaders of two different archetypes, with LeBron perhaps belonging more to the scoring extreme of the playmakers group. In some ways I find the latter more satisfying, because LeBron really is more of a floor general by nature than guys like Jordan, Kobe, Wade or the others I envision in that category. But because LeBron is such a strong scorer as well, he also doesn't entirely fit in with the Magic Johnson's of the world...though he could be a generational Oscar Robertson on offense, so perhaps.

Either way, my point in starting with that aside is that it influences what I believe to be each player's best measures of success. With LeBron belonging to the databall era we have a host of impact data that allows us to more granularly quantify the value that he has brought to his teams through the years, but the tail end of Jordan's career only barely overlaps with the very beginning of the era so we just don't have the same level of data for him. As such, I have to rely even more heavily on my eye test and -yes- archetypal success trends to buttress some of the other common tools like box scores, team success, peer opinions and accolades.

Jordan, to me, was the most oppressive perimeter-in scorer of all-time. It is of course very different to how 3-point bombers like James Harden or Steph Curry do it these days, but Mike scored from the deep midrange-in at an efficiency that battles most volume 3-point savants. When he was on, it just felt like he was going to score every possession, no matter what the defenses did. And his mechanisms changed through the years...from the artistic explosiveness of his aerial attacks as a younger player to the footwork and angles mastery of his older years, Jordan could score in a way that I've never really seen anyone be able to match.

LeBron, on the other hand, is like the apex point in the intersection between Jordan's scoring brilliance and Magic's floor generalship. LeBron's physical tools allow him to go downhill to the rim like another former Cleveland legend, Jim Brown, and provides (another cross-sport analogy) an omnipresent scoring knockout punch akin to prime Foreman. I used to debate with a friend of mine about the difference between LeBron and Kobe in the clutch. He'd contend that Kobe was more skilled and thus better, because he could set up and knock down shots in so many different ways from all over the court. But I'd argue that, in the end, the level of artistry didn't matter because while Kobe could set up and knock down extraordinarily difficult shots at a clip that no one else in the world could, they were still relatively low percentage looks. Meanwhile, LeBron might just fly to the rim and get a high-percentage look that wasn't nearly as acrobatic but that had a much higher chance of yielding his team the necessary points. But, of course, it's more than that. LeBron wasn't "just" a brute on offense. His scoring ability has gotten more nuanced as his career has progressed, and at various times (including this season) he's hit some of his biggest shots from (at times FAR) behind the 3-point line. And, importantly in this comparison, LeBron's offense is never just (or even, necessarily primarily, about scoring).

Because while Jordan was actually a gifted team-offense creator in his own right when he wanted to be...his 30/8/8 season comes to mind, and of course the Triangle and Scottie Pippen both lowered Jordan's abilities to generate volume assists numbers in the 90s...LeBron could have actually been one of the most gifted point guards in the league almost independent of his scoring ability. Before LeBron's rookie season, I remember he made a commercial where he was singing in a choir about "Court vision" and making no-look passes from the choir stand. While it was a silly commercial, he was making his claim from jump that his ability to pass was one of the aspects of his game he was most proud of. And that has translated faithfully throughout his career, reaching a pinnacle this season when he did the most facilitating of his career and averaged career-highs in assist-based categories.

Thus, the attempts I've seen in this thread to compare Jordan and LeBron on the basis of purely scoring metrics miss the mark, IMO. While those metrics are very key for Jordan's archetype, they just don't cover enough to be explanatory or representative of LeBron's.

Analytics tend to indicate that players of Jordan's archetype, at their best, can lead the NBA in given seasons in Offensive RAPM (thinking Wade's best seasons, or '06 Kobe). And Jordan operated consistently at levels matching/surpassing even the best of what we saw out of them. So I definitely believe that, if we had that data from the late 80s and 90s, Jordan would have been among the league leaders on a perennial basis. However, whereas the apex perimeter scorer archetype can lead the league in offensive impact, it's the apex floor generals that seem to post the historically highest offensive impact stats and also (as Doc MJ pointed out upthread) lead the historic team offense dynasties. Steve Nash has been the king of offensive RAPM in the databall era, and led those Suns attacks. Oscar Robertson is a WOWY king from his era, and led offensive powerhouses teams. We don't have the granular +/- data for Magic Johnson, but I personally believe his best ORAPM years would've been higher than Jordan's as well. And of course, if Nash was the ORAPM king of the databall era, we also have the data that indicates that on offense LeBron is the one that was nipping at Nash's heels.

All that to say (and I've got freedom here to be as wordy as I like, which I'm kind of digging), I believe that LeBron's offensive impact across his prime was at least as strong as, and if either side had an advantage likely even slightly higher than Jordan's.

I could work through a similar exercise on defense, but despite having the freedom to be wordy, I also have the time constraints of deadlines I'm working towards, so I won't take the time to do that here to the same depth. Jordan was an excellent, aggressive defender on the perimeter with the base strength (especially later in his career) to be a menace in post-defense as well. His hands were quick and strong, he had the aggressive mindset of "Pitbull Kobe" (was that the right dog reference? Doberman Kobe?) in living to thrash certain 1-on-1 matchups at both ends of the court, and he wasn't as averse to fighting through off-ball screens nor as likely to take risky freelance chances as Kobe was. I still don't personally see Jordan as the best defender in the entire NBA when he won his DPoY award, but I agree he could be a very strong defender. But I believe LeBron to have been better defensively, as well, because his incredibly unique size/speed/explosiveness ratio allowed him to at times play roles more commonly suited to a big man. He never had the defensive impact of a truly dominant big man defensive anchor, but he has often been the next best thing.

So, if I believe (and I do) that LeBron was comparable-maybe-even-slightly-better on offense, and similarly comparable-maybe-even-slightly-better on defense, then I must believe that, prime-to-prime, LeBron was typically comparable-even-slightly-better-overall than Jordan. Factor in the playoffs, crunchtime, intangibles, team success, etc. and I think the prime-for-prime debate can be very interesting and close, but when longevity is factored in I think this comp becomes much less interesting. By this point, for the sake of projects like this, I'd tend to have LeBron over Jordan comfortably in terms of overall career value.


A cool collection of data and other snippets (mostly from Thinking Basketball's collection - I'm happy to share more if/when prompted) regarding James’ impressive prime performance - to the point where people could even disagree on when/where he peaked as a player. I've formatted these as RS -> PS. Of-course there's more nuance than compiling box and impact stats, but having sustained consistency / excellence to the degree James has is astounding in a "GOAT discussion".

3-year Box/Impact:
Spoiler:
2008-10:
30.8 Points/75 on +4.9% efficiency -> 32.0 on +5.6
12.4 Box Creation / 7.9 Passer Rating -> 12.6 / 7.7
8.2 PIPM
6.3 AuPM/G -> 6.8
7.6 BPM -> 8.8

2012-14:
29.5 Points/75 on +9.8% efficiency -> 30.3 on +9.0
11.2 Box Creation / 7.4 Passer Rating -> 9.3 / 6.4
6.7 PIPM
6.4 LEBRON
5.6 AuPM/G -> 5.9
7.6 BPM - > 8.2

2016-18:
27.5 Points-75 on +6.0% efficiency -> 30.6 on +7.9
12.8 Box Creation / 7.2 Passer Rating -> 12.7 / 7.3
6.9 PIPM
5.7 LEBRON
4.5 AuPM/G -> 6.1
6.0 BPM -> 9.0


From Back-picks write-up of Greatest Careers, circa 2018:

Spoiler:
James is, arguably, the king of overall plus-minus stats. 2018 is the 25th season of league-wide plus-minus data, which covers nearly 40 percent of the shot-clock era and touches 12 of the top-20 players on this list. None have achieved LeBron’s heights: He holds four of the top-five scaled APM seasons on record, and six of the top eight. Since 2007, 10 of his 11 years land in the 99th percentile.12 However, his seasons in Miami were a (relative) low point:


Just like rebounds or field goal percentage, adjusted plus-minus is a measurement, a fairly stable gauge of an involved player’s value on a given team. LeBron wasn’t worse during the years in South Beach — based on film study, he was better in most areas — but he wasn’t as indispensable to those Heat teams, and thus his impact measurements clocked in below his historic floor-raising efforts.


Of course, James also ranks among the box score titans, tallying points like a pinball machine while playing quarterback. (A style approximated by James Harden today.) His statistical peak came in his original Cleveland days, hybridizing Magic-like table-setting with Jordan’s scoring.13 Only Steph Curry’s three-year regular season peak covers more real estate on the Big 4 box diamond featured in this series. In the postseason, LeBron’s Cleveland numbers trailed only Jordan, and his line in Miami matched Curry’s efficiency:


I keep invoking Nash, another ball-dominant engine like James, but LeBron is different in a handful of ways. Both have generated excellent results surrounded by shooters and pick-and-roll dance partners, but James maintains greater value next to other ball-dominant players (like Wade and Irving) thanks to his post game, offensive rebounding and thunderous cuts to the rim. This is a versatility advantage that makes LeBron a more valuable player in a wider variety of lineups and roles, which in turn makes him slightly more scalable (because better teams often come with other on-ball stars). On the other hand, he seems to relegate post players to the perimeter in order to open the lane, casting doubt on whether he could thrive next to a traditional low-post stud. Still, when compared to other all-time quarterbacks like Magic and Oscar Robertson, his defense gives him a considerable edge.
Mogspan wrote:I think they see the super rare combo of high IQ with freakish athleticism and overrate the former a bit, kind of like a hot girl who is rather articulate being thought of as “super smart.” I don’t know kind of a weird analogy, but you catch my drift.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #1 (Deadline: July 3rd 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#15 » by AEnigma » Sat Jul 1, 2023 9:35 pm

I think it is fair to say that LeBron’s teams never were even particularly close to the heights of dominance that Jordan’s teams reached. And, aside from the first Cavs stint, this isn’t for lack of playing on really talented teams. LeBron’s Heat, second-stint Cavs, and Lakers teams have been really talented. The Heat in particular were unbelievably talented—so talented that LeBron himself thought they’d just waltz to countless titles. Part of that not happening was Wade eventually breaking down, but they simply weren’t very dominant even before that. They only had one 60-win season together. Their SRS averaged 5.92 in those years. And they won two titles in four years, with multiple game 7’s in those two title-winning years. They were a great team, but they struggled, despite all the talent. Meanwhile, as explained above, Jordan’s Bulls were very dominant for a long stretch. They had multiple years where they really didn’t struggle.

And I simply don’t see this as being caused by the Bulls being more talented. Indeed, I don’t actually see those Bulls as being more talented than many of LeBron’s teams. It’s clear that they were a good team without Jordan—since they did well during his first retirement (though the 55 wins in 1994 obscures that the SRS wasn’t nearly as good). Pippen was great, of course, but LeBron has had one or two similarly good teammates. And then you’re looking at guys like Horace Grant (and later Rodman) and role players. The Bulls were a really good team, of course, and were well coached, but I don’t think one can fairly say that they’d look at the names of the supporting players on Jordan’s Bulls teams and the names of the supporting players on some of LeBron’s teams and fairly conclude that Jordan’s Bulls team would be substantially more dominant.

So the conclusion I draw from all this is that Jordan was a notably better ceiling raiser than LeBron. When they both were on really good teams, Jordan made his team into a historically dominant powerhouse, while LeBron’s teams were not dominant and still struggled a good deal. And I think this is actually not surprising, when we realize that LeBron’s style of play is so ball-dominant that it genuinely does make it harder for other great players to be maximized on a team with him. Jordan liked the ball too, but his style really was nowhere near as ball dominant—with a lot more getting shots within the rhythm of the offense (especially with the triangle, but even before that too).

This is an extremely common refrain and the type of thinking that is inevitable when we spend more times looking at name than at real production.

The 1994 Bulls played at a 4.7 SRS pace when healthy, but because we need to portray the Bulls as untalented, we instead need to ignore Pippen and Grant separately missing ten games for the first time in their career. There we need to look past the “55-wins”. And then the following year, when Grant is replaced with Ron Harper and they play at a 3.8 SRS pace before Jordan’s return, well, we look at the win totals painting them as a barely over .500 team. They play like more of 6.5 team with Jordan (3.8 —> 6.5 quite the feat of ceiling raising!), and when Rodman is added to that 6.5 core, Jordan is the one who receives all the credit for that lift.

That last point is a very common trend for Jordan’s teams. 2.74 SRS in 1990, then a massive spike up to 8.57 in 1991. What changed? Jordan played 160 fewer minutes. His TS ADD went down from 315 to 301. His VORP went up 0.2, his win shares went up 1.3, and his PIPM wins went up 1.4… Then the following year the Bulls are even better: 10.07 SRS, rarefied air. But Jordan? TS ADD down to 196. VORP down 1.6, win shares down 2.6, and PIPM wins up 0.5. But of course it is not a super team. 1993, they take a step back to 6.19 SRS. A 4 SRS fall out of nowhere! And contributing to that fall, Jordan’s TS ADD is now down to 124. His win shares are down 0.5, his PIPM wins are down 0.9, and his VORP… is up 1.

So if Jordan is not the one driving these massive swings, I wonder who else possibly could be. :wink:

We see elements of this in effect more clearly in 1998, where Pippen misses a large chunk of the season. With Pippen out, the Bulls play at a +6 pace. With Pippen returns, the Bulls play at a +9.5 pace, and this is where I urge readers to remember 1995.

This entire line of thought is another instance of classic Jordan double-speak where we praise Jordan because he lifts teams people claim are less talented teams… but we also call him a “ceiling raiser” because he supposedly fits so much better with the same talent! :lol:

The reality is that (until this past trade deadline) Lebron has never played with a roster that produced +4-SRS results without him. For all that talent, for all that talk about “overlap”, none of his teams show any signals of the sort (the 2013 Heat is the only roster conceivably in that realm). Is Lebron a “good” fit with players who derive much of their value from being a high volume scorer or primary ball-handler? No, not especially… but whenever this idea comes up, we ignore that Jordan’s teams were perfectly catered to his every skillset. :-?
70sFan wrote:Jordan played with perfectly optimized rosters throughout his career and I'm 100% sure he'd fit worse with Wade/Bosh or even Kyrie/Love than LeBron actually did.

I'm almost shocked how easily Jordan's portability is taken for granted to be honest. Jordan never played with other high level creators. He never had to change his game because of roster construction. I very much doubt anything would change the way he played.

You may argue that in most situations, Jordan wouldn't need to change his style to make it work. I can see that, although it's far from given. At the same time though, I don't think Jordan shooting 25 times per game next to another high volume perimeter scorer would be a good thing. I doubt Jordan would bring that much value (relative to other GOAT candidates) next to someone like Wade or Kobe. I don't even love his fit with someone like Curry.
AEnigma wrote:Fitting with Pippen is nothing like fitting with Wade. Jordan made an adjustment (or more accurately was advised to make an adjustment by Phil Jackson) to give Pippen more ballhandling primacy, and that is used as de facto proof of his offensive (reminder that defence scales too…) scalability next to players like Wade. … But Jordan’s dominant skill is not ballhandling, it is scoring. And he cared about that skill a lot.
Phil Jackson wrote:Basically I was planning to ask Michael, who had won his third scoring title in a row the previous season, to reduce the number of shots he took so that other members of the team could get more involved in the offense. I knew this would be a challenge for him: Michael was only the second player to win both a scoring title and the league MVP award in the same year, the first being Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1971.
I told [Michael] that I was planning to implement the triangle and, as a result, he probably wouldn’t be able to win another scoring title. “You’ve got to share the spotlight with your teammates,” I said, “because if you don’t, they won’t grow.”
"Okay, I guess I could average thirty-two points,” he said. “That’s eight points a quarter. Nobody else is going to do that.”
“Well, when you put it that way, maybe you can win the title,” I said. “But how about scoring a few more of those points at the end of the game?”
Looking back, Michael says that he liked this approach because it “allowed me to be the person I needed to be.” Sometimes I would tell him that he needed to be aggressive and set the tone for the team. Other times I’d say, “Why don’t you try to get Scottie going so that the defenders will go after him and then you can attack?”
In general, I tried to give Michael room to figure out how to integrate his personal ambitions with those of the team. “Phil knew that winning the scoring title was important to me,” Michael says now, “but I wanted to do it in a way that didn’t take away from what the team was doing.”

Does that sound like a guy who is legitimately worried about not deferring enough? No. Now, as I said, Wade was not Pippen. I do not think Jordan would have taken the same approach with Wade, although obviously we have no real way of knowing. But I do think Jordan was dramatically less likely to be worried about not stepping on the toes of this other elite scorer. Jordan supporters might chalk that up to superior mentality; “Jordan knew he was the best scorer and would rightly force Wade to adjust at the outset!” Whatever. But that is not really a point for his “scalability”.

So then we look at what is being sacrificed, and here we have a nice little sample of what Pippen looks like with no Jordan eating up the entire scoring load. And… he takes like one or two extra shots a game. Pippen was not really being asked to sacrifice anything by playing with Jordan — not in the way someone like Wade, who on his own was taking just as many shots as Jordan (albeit much less effectively). And for all those comments from Phil, what did Jordan sacrifice from 1988? Again, like a shot or two a game. The mentality may have changed as advised, but the total scoring load? Pretty much the same. As mentioned, he also sacrificed some general control of the offence to Pippen, and that was very successful, because Pippen was (or at least developed into) a better passer than Jordan, and passing was his best offensive skill. Contrast this with Wade, who is a worse scorer than both Jordan and Lebron, is a worse playmaker than Lebron, and has explicitly talked about not wanting to act as the point guard on offence… but who is an elite player because on any other team he would be one of the best scorers and playmakers in the game. Suddenly that question of who sacrifices what and how much becomes a lot murkier.

It is not original to say that in many ways Lebron is like taking Pippen and giving him some of Jordan’s scoring acumen. Lebron does not really care much about scoring titles (despite how many of his detractors refuse to admit that). He is an all-time scorer regardless, so it makes sense for him to score a lot, and he does have some ego about scoring (in before the “ten points in every game!” streak gets brought up), but that is not his primary game, and even though he has basically always been the best scorer on his teams, he is perfectly happy to share the scoring load, whether it be with Wade, Kyrie, or Davis.

Lebron likes playmaking in general. This is more traditionally his best skill… but there too he is not exactly unwilling to share — with Wade, with Kyrie, or with Westbrook. Westbrook, in sort of a similar situation as Pippen, really only has abstract value now as a passer, although without his scoring threat, and without any spacing ability, it is not exactly a high value offering. But to accommodate that, what does Lebron do? He tries to pull a Jordan. He relinquishes ballhandling, focuses more on scoring, for the first time in over a decade legitimately pushes for a scoring title… but the team’s defence is bad with Davis “suffering from hurt”, the roster overall is a mess, and a diminished Westbrook is still a pretty active negative who cannot be any actual analogue for even a younger Scottie Pippen. But is any of that a real consequence of some fundamental inability of Lebron to score next to a lead ballhandler?

Kyrie and Wade like ballhandling too. Neither have anything on Lebron’s playmaking or passing ability, and to some extent they both probably know that (questionable with Kyrie lol), but Lebron is happy enough to share. With Kyrie, this works well because Kyrie is an elite spacer. With Wade, this does not work as well, because Wade is a relatively poor spacer. But then we consider Jordan and Pippen again. Is Pippen a good spacer? Not really, and not to an extent I would put him beyond Wade. Well, alright, then is Jordan a better spacer and more capable of working past the spacing limitations of players like Wade and Westbrook and Pippen? There I would say the answer is maybe, and the reason why it is maybe is why era differences are important to this question (as has been discussed).

Jordan was a pretty strong spacer in his era. 3s were not a focus and illegal defence rules limited the extent to which an individual top scorer could be hounded compared to what happened once those rules were dropped… but nevertheless, he is one of the best ever midrange scorers, and he has a degree of raw scoring gravity that really only Curry has competed with as a perimetre player. Lebron, on the other hand, has no leniency from illegal defence. Lebron takes threes, and is enough of a threat to make them that he does draw attention out there, while always having a pretty strong degree of raw scoring gravity of his own. In Jordan’s era, I definitely give the advantage as a spacer to Jordan. In a more modern era? Well, obviously some fans like to argue Jordan would become a strong three-point shooter, but if we take his skills at face value, and his own commentary about feeling that reliance on threes is bad for his own mentality, it seems a lot more debatable whether at that point he actually fits all that much better as a spacer with Pippen or Westbrook or Wade.

So we know Lebron is willing to relinquish ballhandling, as Jordan did. We know he is willing to relinquish scoring primacy, as Jordan did not do and expressly did not want to do but hypothetically could have done if given the opportunity. We know era disparities penalise spacing in different ways, to an extent that it is not clear whether in Lebron’s era Jordan would fare better playing with non-spacing (/non-defending) teammates than Lebron did. We know that Pippen did not particularly eat into Jordan’s scoring and that Jordan’s presence barely affected Pippen’s scoring load. What exactly does all that tell us about how much better Jordan fits with random teammates than Lebron does?

I would say exceedingly little. What I am comfortable saying is that Jordan fits better on offence in his own era with non-spacers than Lebron would — and in that sense, relative to their own respective eras too. I am comfortable saying Jordan fits better with non-scoring ballhandlers than Lebron would, pretty much regardless of era, in the specific sense that Lebron loses more of his innate value from that situation than Jordan does. But on the other side, I think Lebron fits better with spacers and/or off-ball players than Jordan does, by virtue of being better able to take advantage of their skillsets with his passing. I think Lebron fits better with poor defenders than Jordan does. I think Lebron also fits better with Kyrie-type playmakers than Jordan does — scorers who space and like to have some offensive control but are overtaxed as a team’s first choice to perform either skill. And I think it is unclear which of the two fits better on offence in the modern era with that particular breed of player who does not space well yet is best maximised as an on-ball scorer… such as Dwyane Wade.

Mind you, this analysis has been mostly about duos. Think back to that comment about wanting to win the scoring titles. Is that easier with Horace Grant and/or Dennis Rodman, or with Chris Bosh and/or Kevin Love? We talk all about how these third stars oh so tragically were placed into a box next to Lebron. Okay, what does Chris Bosh look like next to Wade and Jordan? Is he suddenly freed up? Is a higher volume scorer asking Bosh to score more too? Is a weaker defender letting Bosh lower his defensive load? Does the team no longer want him to space the floor? Kevin Love has more of a passing game, so he is more interesting (not that either Blatt or Lue seemed to figure out how to make that work well even with Kyrie), but there too it is hard to say his scoring volume would increase next to Jordan or that he would struggle less on defence or that his spacing would be less important.

Jordan pretty much always got to play his way. He was never forced into a situation where he seriously had to consider relinquishing his league high scoring load (his principle and most personally valued skill). He was almost never asked to take a role that did not suit him. Because we know that Lebron struggled a little bit in those situations that Jordan never faced, we conclude that Jordan is an easier fit with more players? Nonsense. This guy is not Steph — not as a spacer (obviously), nor as someone who seems at all willing to sacrifice scoring volume. And he is also not Kobe or Iverson or Carmelo, in the sense that it almost always should be best practice for him to be that primary scorer… but then it similarly has almost always been best practice for Lebron to be both the primary scorer and creator, and despite his clear willingness to compromise on either, that is being held against him, with zero evidence of whether Jordan could maintain his “impact” next to players who would force him to adapt his game or otherwise see their own games disrupted next to him. When Lebron gets strong fit teams that allow him to balance his skills, they are dismissed because he was not as good on bad fitting teams. But when Jordan wins six titles on teams that allow him to maximise his scoring above any other responsibilities? Well, that is just a good example of how scalable he is!

I have said it before, but we are essentially rewarding Jordan for having a less dynamic skillset: “well, both of them probably see diminishing returns as scorers next to other high volume scorers by virtue of both being some of the highest volume scorers ever, but Lebron’s superior passing sees more diminishing returns next to high volume creators, so that means Jordan fits better with more players!” Like, fine, for those of you who want to give Jordan an easy 38% three-point shot on good volume, this is not going to matter for you as much. Just like there are those of you who will never move past six titles, or how scoring is the number one skill, or what a failure 2011 was, or how Jordan was actually a god-tier defender, or how Lebron is a coward for not sticking with the Cavaliers from the start. But for those of you looking at the type of spacers they actually are and are ostensibly trying to be objective and properly critical of the context in which each played? You should be asking a lot more.

More briefly: I am not a fan of the demonstrable groupthink that elite scalability is when a team is built around a single volume scorer, comprised of players who are not looking to be volume scorers themselves (Pippen took an extra two shots a game without Jordan in 1994 and Grant took an extra shot and a half). There is only one ball, and on the Bulls, that ball was relentlessly funnelled straight to Jordan. It is not especially distinct from throwing Lebron onto a roster with George Hill and Mikal Bridges and Shane Battier and Rasheed Wallace, and then declaring him an all-time scaleable force for not taking more away from their playstyles. It is an inconsistent standard built around a hypothetical never evidenced.
MyUniBroDavis wrote:Some people are clearly far too overreliant on data without context and look at good all in one or impact numbers and get wowed by that rather than looking at how a roster is actually built around a player
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #1 (Deadline: July 3rd 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#16 » by DQuinn1575 » Sat Jul 1, 2023 10:23 pm

AEnigma wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:Has an overall (imo) unmatched impact/plus-minus "resume" in the data ball era when considering every possible angle one could look at.

......

One weakness compared to lebron is the lack of full impact data to "confirm" the impact om the eye test amd the fact he played in a less developed league

You're rewarding LeBron and downgrading Kareem (and others) due to the amount of information available.
Just doesn't seem fair to rank one player better than another partly due to the amount of information available.

Lebron plays in a better league and comfortably surpasses Kareem even when you use equivalent impact signals based on how teams perform with and without them in the lineup, and the only real argument against that relies on centre replacements being conceivably more valuable than “Lebron” replacements. Which is fine, but it is not an argument in itself for Kareem, and it is correct to mark Lebron as having a more substantial “impact” case.


I’m not arguing his choice. I really haven’t mDe mine yet. I’m questioning his part of his criteria of selection
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #1 (Deadline: July 3rd 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#17 » by One_and_Done » Sat Jul 1, 2023 10:46 pm

The Duncan Spurs won an average of 58+ games over 19 seasons. Just think about that. Look at those utterly horrid support teams he had in 2002 and 2003. They had no business winning a title in 2003. Even watching the 1999 run it's kind of amazing how bad everyone on the court not named Duncan seems to be at times. Next thread, when I'm considering Duncan more seriously, I might break down a typical quarter during that run from my DVDs.

Russell today wouldn't be a top 5 player, maybe not even top 10 in the modern game. I'm not going to punish Duncan for being born in a time when titles are harder to come by.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #1 (Deadline: July 3rd 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#18 » by trelos6 » Sat Jul 1, 2023 11:05 pm

For me, there is a clear top 2.

1. Lebron James
2. Kareem Adbul Jabbar

With Lebron, we have 20 seasons and counting. He has been an elite scorer in that time, each and every year. Aside from his age 19 season, he has been at 25ppg for every single year. However, all this is merely the base. Where Lebron truly shines is his playoff resume. 4 titles, 6 more finals appearances, he's the leading playoff scorer by a long margin. Other's will breakdown the stats further, but for me, a player who's been arguably a top 3 player in the league for 14 seasons, accumulating a total of 38652 points, 10420 assists, 10667 rebounds, 2000 steals, 1000 blocks, along with 8000 playoff points, AND COUNTING.

BBall Ref WS metric has him at 255.1 wins contributed, with a spectacular .226. wins per 48.


Kareem, the former longevity king, played exactly 20 seasons. Had he come in from high school, who knows what we'd all think, considering how dominant he was at UCLA. But we can't play hypotheticals here, it's all about what the player accomplished. And boy did Kareem accomplish. The big fella accumulated 38000+ pts, 17000+ Rebs, and 3000+ blocks in his career. 6 MVP's, 6 titles, 4 finals.

Not without its flaws, Ball Ref WS has him at 273.4 wins contributed, with another spectacular .228 wins per 48. I give him 13-14 seasons where he was arguably a top 3 player in the league.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #1 (Deadline: July 3rd 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#19 » by trelos6 » Sat Jul 1, 2023 11:20 pm

Ambrose wrote:Going into this mostly open to LeBron, Jordan, Kareem and Russell. I'm leaning LeBron right now. Why might I be wrong?


That’s a solid top 4
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #1 (Deadline: July 3rd 11:59 PM Pacific) 

Post#20 » by AEnigma » Sat Jul 1, 2023 11:34 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:
AEnigma wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:You're rewarding LeBron and downgrading Kareem (and others) due to the amount of information available.
Just doesn't seem fair to rank one player better than another partly due to the amount of information available.

Lebron plays in a better league and comfortably surpasses Kareem even when you use equivalent impact signals based on how teams perform with and without them in the lineup, and the only real argument against that relies on centre replacements being conceivably more valuable than “Lebron” replacements. Which is fine, but it is not an argument in itself for Kareem, and it is correct to mark Lebron as having a more substantial “impact” case.

I’m not arguing his choice. I really haven’t mDe mine yet. I’m questioning his part of his criteria of selection

I think it is fair to say that Kareem lacks the same profile of robust data suggesting “impact”.

Going to use this to branch off past your comment, but that fuzzier impact is why I pause on the Kareem/Russell comparison. Because yeah, eye-test, Russell is not quite as captivating, is he? And the analogy which never fails to make me pause is that 1977/78 Kareem, perhaps playing at his most visually impressive level (granted, I liked his defence more in the 1974 games I have seen), is dwarfed in every “impact” indicator by Walton, the closest spiritual successor to Russell’s playstyle. And that can largely be a matter of team construction — are the 1962-64 Warriors better with Russell instead of Wilt, no, probably not — but it raises questions all the same.
MyUniBroDavis wrote:Some people are clearly far too overreliant on data without context and look at good all in one or impact numbers and get wowed by that rather than looking at how a roster is actually built around a player

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